• RedState editor Erick Erickson continues to promote the candidacy of state Sen. Marlin Stutzman (R) in advance of tomorrow's IN SEN GOP primary. Erickson writes: "A Senate Conservatives Fund poll shows 30% of Indiana voters are undecided as of Thursday night. Stutzman has the firmest support, but he and [ex-Rep. John] Hostettler are tied at 18% with [ex-Sen. Dan] Coats at 28%. There is still a lot of movement out there and Marlin having such firm support is a huge advantage for him. It might be time for the Hostettler people to stand with [SC Sen.] Jim DeMint and rally to Stutzman." Meanwhile, NRO's Jim Geraghty thinks Stutzman will have a future in GOP politics even if he loses tomorrow: "Stutzman has attracted some passionate support, and there's no shame in a 34-year-old finishing a respectable second or third in a Senate primary. His future in state politics looks bright; if and when [GOP Rep.] Mark Souder retires, the Howe, Indiana resident would seem to be a natural replacement, and one has to wonder how many more terms the 66-year-old Coats would want to serve."
• Erickson reports that ex-Focus on the Family chair James Dobson "is retracting his endorsement of [KY SEN candidate Trey] Grayson and is now on the Rand Paul team." Erickson: "James Dobson says he was 'misled' and 'Senior Republican leaders' told him Rand Paul is pro-choice. Exactly which members of the Republican leadership lied to James Dobson? That's almost like lying to the Pope. Geez."
• Geraghty thinks Dems are being "wildly presumptuous" in declaring that HI-01 candidate Charles Djou (R) will lose in November even if he wins the 5/22 special: "You're seeing a few liberal bloggers declare that this is such a unique circumstance that if Djou wins, come November, any Democratic nominee will knock him off. I think they're wildly presumptuous. Djou is a genuinely good candidate, near-impossible to paint as just another Republican. The DCCC attacks on him are pathetically generic; either their research team has quit or Djou really has never done anything controversial or unpopular in his political career. If Djou wins, he'll have a half a year or so to start serving constituents and building up the traditional advantages of an incumbent." Hot Air's Ed Morrissey is impressed by Djou's performance: "This district went for Barack Obama by 70% in 2008. Even if one combined the polls for [ex-Rep. Ed] Case and [state Sen. Colleen] Hanabusa, the Democrat brand seems to have suffered a significant decline in Obama's home district." Meanwhile, Djou held a live chat with RedState readers this a.m.
• Geraghty thinks ex-MD Gov. Robert Ehrlich (R) could win back the governorship: "The Democrat who beat him [in '06], Martin O'Malley, ran with the political wind at his back and with a platform full of promises. The average Marylander is not better off now than he was four years ago. Yes, it's an extraordinarily Democratic state, and Ehrlich's 46 percent approval rating looks good compared to a lot of other Democratic incumbents. But this seems like a tough environment to be running on 'four more years of the same.'"
• PPP's Tom Jensen notes that Sec/State Elaine Marshall (D) has "expand[ed] her lead" over ex-state Sen. Cal Cunningham (D) in the NC SEN Dem primary, but adds: "The news isn't all bad for Cunningham though. 70% of his voters are firmly committed to him, compared to 60% of Marshall's who say the same of her. In what's likely to be a very low turnout race having the most passionate supporters could really make a difference. Also, the largest amount of undecided voters are in the greater Charlotte area where Cunningham is running television ads and Marshall is not."

LEST WE FORGET: More Or Less, Allowing For Individual Variation...

From Overheard in New York:

Father: It was the Million Man March. It was a million men marching in the capital for our people.
Son: No girls? No moms?
Father: No girls, just men.
Son: So there was a million penises?
Father (trying to bring it back onto subject): Yes. But it was the Million Man March.
Son: So there were two million balls?
Father: That's not the point.
Son: But everybody had one penis and two balls, right?
Father: Presumably.

• RealClearPolitics' Jay Cost thinks Crist is making a big mistake: "What the hell is Charlie Crist doing? This is insane. [...] The alternative would be to bow out gracefully, heartily endorse Marco Rubio, campaign like the dickens for him in the fall, and wait for the next opening in Florida politics. Instead, he is about to piss off every Republican in the country, and he's not going to win over the affections of the Democrats, who clearly sense an opportunity to get one of their own into the seat. His political career will be over in just a few short months. What a fool."
• Hot Air's Allahpundit agrees with Cost: "To have a credible shot, [Crist] needs 35 percent of Republicans and 30 percent of Democrats, which almost certainly isn't happening. [...] Independent candidates simply don't win true three-way elections, and cynical, careerist, opportunistic, lying candidates really don't win in a political climate like 2010."
• Liberal bloggers continue to pooh-pooh Crist's chances. David Dayen writes: "Best of luck to him. His challenges include the lack of any staff willing to join his campaign, a shaky fundraising future, and no party organization for GOTV. I hope those polls have him up really big in a three-way contest, because it'll be the last time he grades that high." FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver adds: "Long story short, I think this analysis by Marco Rubio's campaign is actually quite trenchant and that Crist has a tough road ahead." Meanwhile, Daily Kos founder Markos Moulitsas writes: "Now, let's hope for a slash and burn campaign against his party."
• NRO's Jim Geraghty still considers Meek an underdog: "Permit me to throw a bit of cold water on those who think Crist's independent bid turns Democrat Kendrick Meek into the odds-on favorite: Here is a list of Meek's percentage of the vote in six polls on this scenario since November: 31, 24, 27, 25, 24, 22. He has led none of them, he is in third place in four of them. In other words, he needs to build on his current level of support. Crist's independent bid splits the existing Republican vote, but there so far hasn't been enough Meek backers to get him a win under either scenario." Meanwhile, Ruffini Tweets: "Though I'm fully confident in Marco Rubio's ability to beat Charlie Crist a second time, an IE propping up Meek might not be a bad idea."
• PPP's Tom Jensen thinks Crist's indie bid actually helps Rubio: "45% of Democratic voters have a favorable opinion of Crist while only 29% have a favorable opinion of Meek. Compare that to 52% of Republicans with a favorable opinion of Rubio and 28% with a favorable one of Crist. If Crist is more popular with the Democrats than their candidate and less popular with the Republicans than their candidate it stands to reason he'll pull more of the Democratic vote long term. Maybe that will change down the road once Meek becomes better known but for now it's good for Crist. Republicans are going to be angry at Crist for leaving the GOP, but it may actually be the best thing he's done for the party in months. It should help Marco Rubio's chances of getting to the Senate."

What else is happening in the blogosphere?

• Moulitsas is excited about the new Daily Kos/Research 2000 poll showing AR LG Bill Halter (D) gaining on Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR). Moulitsas writes: "A month ago, Lincoln had a solid 13-point lead, 44-31, that has been whittled down to eight points, and at 43 percent, Lincoln's chances of a 1st-round knockout are growing dimmer by the day. If neither candidate gets over 50 percent, there will be a three-week runoff, and the last thing Lincoln needs is to give Halter more time to close the deal. The trendlines are certainly not in her favor. [...] There are still over three weeks until the May 18 primary, Halter's current strategy is thus far doing the trick."
• Moulitsas is also promoting his new NV SEN poll, which shows ex-NV GOP Chair Sue Lowden (R) slipping. Moulitsas writes: "You know Harry Reid has his fingers crossed that Lowden can [win the GOP primary]. Her inability to deal with her chicken-based health care plan would pay dividends all the way to November."
• Ex-AR Gov. Mike Huckabee has posted a diary on RedState explaining his recent endorsements: "I realize that I am preaching to the choir on Redstate when I say we need: Chuck DeVore, Marco Rubio and Marlin Stutzman in the US Senate. We do. We need three firm votes in the Senate AGAINST bailouts, Obamacare and the many tax increases that our coming our way to pay for both. We need strong defenders of the 2nd amendment, life, traditional marriage and wait for it...REAL BORDER SECURITY!"

LEST WE FORGET: Hit Singles From The 1990's In Passive Voice

McSweeney's contributor Jim Rodovich:

• Bryan Adams: "Everything That Is Done By Me Is Done By Me For You"
• Aerosmith: "It Is Not Desired For A Thing To Get Missed"
• U2: "I Should Be Held, I Should Be Thrilled, I Should Be Kissed, I Should Be Killed"
• Live: "There Is Some Crashing Of Some Lightning"
• Puff Daddy (feat. Mase): "Can't Be Held Down By Nobody"
• Boyz II Men: "You'll Have My Love Made To You"
• Chumbawumba: "Having Been Tubthumped"

On the left, 50 percent of responders said Wall Street reform would help the Democrats a lot, while 44 percent said it would help a little. On the right, 40 percent said it would hurt Republicans a little and the same portion predicted it would have no impact.

"The American people are overwhelmingly with the Democrats on this issue, and, judging by their cloddish behavior, Republicans seem determined to keep it that way," said David Kravitz, expressing a common viewpoint on the left. But Susie Madrak, who said it would help a little, wrote, "People want blood. Other than the symbolic public spanking, they're not going to get it." And Gregg Levine, who said it would have no impact, suggested the Democrats won't win the image war: "Even Democrats in Congress are hard-pressed to explain how their bill will help so-called Main Street."

On the right, meanwhile, Dave Kopel said it would hurt the GOP a little: "Republicans would be wrong, as a matter of policy and of politics, to oppose reforms which would reduce the ability of Wall Street to make the public pay for losing bets on complex financial instruments." Rob Port said it might be overshadowed by health care fallout: "Not a lot of Americans feel like banking reform impacts them, even though it does." And James Joyner said it was most likely "too complicated to have much saliency. The election will be about jobs and punishing incumbents."

Bloggers were also asked if they would support debt reduction efforts by President Obama's fiscal commission in each of five areas. Right-leaners went strongest for discretionary spending, Medicare and Social Security costs; the left favored defense spending and tax increases.

Right-leaner Bob Parks said yes to all but defense cuts, writing, "What happened to focusing like a laser beam on jobs and the economy? Note to President Obama: People can't eat health care or Goldman Sachs." On the other side, Big Tent Democrat voted yes to all options, saying that when the panel focuses, "it should address the problems as they actually exist -- the most prominent undoubtedly being the undertaxation of the wealthy."

See complete results and all the bloggers' comments after the jump.

• Allahpundit thinks Crist has a difficult path to victory: "Remember Nate Silver's point...about strategic voting in a close three-way race: So long as both Rubio and Kendrick Meek are in the thick of it on Election Day, centrists on both sides of the aisle will feel enormous pressure to defect from Crist and vote as partisans to stop the opposing party's 'extremist' candidate. Which is why, I suspect, Crist's initial attacks will focus on Meek. Rubio's going to get ~35 percent no matter what, so the quicker Crist can marginalize the Democrat and convince the lefty base that Meek is hopeless, the likelier he is to capitalize on strategic voting himself."
• Frum agrees: "Thank God for Kendrick Meek is all I can say. If the Dems had recruited a top-tier candidate in Florida, the Crist-Rubio revenge drama would have already thrown away a Senate seat that ought to be an easy Republican hold. As is, things will be difficult enough. [...] Crist continues to lead the polls. I expect that lead to fade as Republicans rally to Rubio and independents question the grounds for Crist's candidacy."
• Liberal bloggers agree with their conservative counterparts that Crist will probably lose. Dayen writes: "I maintain...that his incumbency will stick with him while the advantages of incumbency -- namely a party machine for GOTV and fundraising -- will fade. Those polls Crist looked at probably represent the high-water mark of his candidacy." Nathan Empsall agrees: "Crist may be leading a three-way race in internal polls and Quinnipac now, but there are three reasons that I don't think that will hold up. One, even if outside politicians like Ah-nuhld come in to fundraise for him, no major outside PACs or 527s will donate. Two, he will lack the volunteer army and GOTV assistance that the Repub infrastructure would have provided him. Three, his frequent, politically opportunistic flip-flops are pretty transparent, so a 'pox on both your houses' campaign like [ex-Sen.] Lincoln Chafee can run for RI-GOV just won't work coming from Crist. This move keeps Crist's chances alive, but it doesn't take them off life support. It does, however, move Democrat Meek from rehab back to life support. As best I can tell, Rubio is still the favorite."
• UVA prof. Larry Sabato talks to National Review Online about Crist's prospects: "He is betting that the credit-card investigation of Rubio will bear fruit. It could end up doing that or it could be completely trivial. In a year so completely Republican, a wave could also wash over any allegations. Crist is hoping that Floridians will eventually see Rubio as too unknown or damaged and Meek as too liberal. That's how he wins: He doesn't just get moderate Republicans. He has to crack Meek's total and get moderate Democrats on his side."
• The Atlantic's Marc Ambinder has a small scoop: "Charlie Crist, soon to be independent Senate candidate from Florida, tried to reach White House chief of staff [Rahm] Emanuel through intermediates. WH refuses to take the call." The Weekly Standard's John McCormack speculates about Crist's motives: "What's Crist up to? Might he be interested in cutting a deal to caucus with the Democrats if they chase Meek from the field? Who knows? But the most plausible path to victory for Crist is if Meek backs him. That's a real possibility, I think, later in the game if Rubio and Crist are each getting about 40% in the polls and Meek is getting about 20%. But, as voters get to know the lesser-known Rubio and Meek, it's probably more likely they emerge as the frontrunners and Crist fades as election day approaches."

What else is happening in the blogosphere?

• Democracy for America endorsed Sec/State Elaine Marshall (D) for NC SEN, calling her "the progressive in the primary and the most qualified to take on Republican Richard Burr this November."
• DNC Chair Tim Kaine held a conference call with progressive bloggers (Stein, Silver, Bowers) yesterday in which he outlined the party's nat'l strategy for the Nov. midterms. Daily Kos' Jed Lewison doesn't like Kaine's decision to frame the election as a choice between "The Party of Results" and "The Party of No": "That's not going to get the job done. Accusing Republicans of trying to obstruct Democrats won't convince most Americans that the GOP is unacceptable. Instead of fighting against a tactic (obstructionism), Democrats should fight against the substance of what Republicans actually are for, because it's that substance that makes the GOP a truly unacceptable alternative."
• National Review Online editor Kathryn Jean Lopez isn't happy about VA Gov. Bob McDonnell's (R) criticism of the AZ illegal immigration law, in which he said that the law "brings up of some other regimes that are not particularly helpful to democracy or civil rights." Lopez writes: "Yikes. [...] Hoping that is a tad out of context." Lopez also criticized Rubio's initial statement about the law, calling it "premature" and alleging that Rubio "reacted to news coverage and not the bill itself."

LEST WE FORGET: God Shuts Down Andromeda Galaxy

From The Onion:

"INNER DISK, ANDROMEDA GALAXY -- Thanking the spiral-shaped celestial body for its 6.8 billion years of tireless service, Our Lord and Divine Creator announced Thursday His 'very difficult decision' to close down the Andromeda galaxy for good. 'Nobody ever wants to have to do something like this, but operating Andromeda on a daily basis has grown impractical and I can't in good conscience keep it going,' God said of the incomprehensibly massive nebula, which is home to more than 1 trillion stars and an untold number of planetary objects. 'So much has changed since I brought it into being, and to be honest, it's just not working out the way I'd hoped.' A spokesman for the Supreme Being issued an apology to Andromeda's 750 quadrillion resident life-forms, who as of midnight Eastern Time on May 15 will cease to exist."

• FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver analyzes Sen. Bob Bennett's (R-UT) chances of surviving the 5/8 UT GOP convention, and concludes: "His candidacy is not dead on arrival, but he is an underdog to survive."
• RedState editor Erick Erickson unloads on NRSC Exec. Dir. Rob Jesmer (not for the first time) for drafting ex-Sen. Dan Coats (R-IN) to run for the open IN SEN seat. Erickson complains: "Coats can't raise money. The bottom for Coats was supposed to be $500,000.00 and he barely cleared $300,000.00. [...] So Coats has had to run to DC for a last minute fundraiser. He is taking resources that could be spent elsewhere and diverting them to a supposedly easy primary win in Indiana -- never mind the general election. Now Coats is having to loan himself $200,000.00 in addition to the fundraiser. This was supposed to be easy. This was supposed to be cheap. Now the NRSC is going to have to spend large sums to take a must win-should win seat that is no guarantee with Coats as the nominee. And if Coats should pull it off? We'll be fighting it out again in six years. He quit the Senate once and he isn't getting any younger. If the NRSC was going to have to invest its resources in Indiana anyway, it might have been smarter to invest in a younger candidate who might just stick around for a while. But not Rob Jesmer. Why invest long term when all you are interested in is 2010?"
• Ambinder offers some background on the Obama admin.'s feelings about embattled IL SEN candidate Alexi Giannoulias (D): "The White House is not trying to push Giannoulias out of the race at the moment. They want to wait and see how the bank closure plays out. They assume that if Giannoulias drops steadily in the polls, he will get the hint, being ambitious but not to the point of blind arrogance. [...] President Obama does not feel responsible for having created the morass from which the Illinois party must escape. So he does not particularly enjoy being told that he has to be the one with the rope doing the pulling. That said, if Giannoulias keeps his standing in the polls to within a few points of [GOP nominee] Mark Kirk, there's a good chance that Obama will campaign for his old friend."
• The Next Right's Patrick Ruffini predicts huge GOP midterm gains: "I might be setting myself for a healthy serving of crow on November 3rd, but I get a distinct feeling that the GOP may be headed toward to a seat gain in the House of epic proportions -- somewhere over 50 seats and well above the historical high point for recent wave elections (the 50-55 seats we experienced in elections like 1946 and 1994). All in all, I don't think a 70 seat gain is out of the question."
• Harvard Law prof. Lawrence Lessig has written a Huffington Post diary making the case for Solicitor Gen. Elena Kagan as Justice John Paul Stevens' replacement. However, prominent liberal bloggers (and Diane Wood supporters) Kevin Drum and Glenn Greenwald don't find Lessig's argument persuasive. Drum writes: "Lessig himself may be convinced that Kagan has a sound judicial philosophy, but those of us who don't know her personally can be excused for wanting a little more." Greenwald agrees with Drum: "[T]he whole piece boils down, in essence, to: I know Elena Kagan better than you do. I'm here to say she'd be great on the Court."

LEST WE FORGET: Goldman To Employ So-Called 'Douchebag Defense'

The Huffington Post's Andy Borowitz:

"NEW YORK (The Borowitz Report) -- In the event of a criminal case against the banking giant, Goldman Sachs is planning to employ a rarely-used legal strategy known as the 'douchebag defense,' sources confirmed today.

Davis Logsdon, Dean of the University of Minnesota School of Law, summarized the unorthodox strategy thusly: 'Basically, they will be arguing that the Goldman executives had no control over their actions because they are ginormous dicks.'

'Exhibit A' if the bank decides to go forward with the douchebag defense will be Goldman banker Fabrice 'Fabulous Fab' Tourre.

'I think the government would have a hard time arguing that he was not an egregious douche,' Logsdon said."

"The more I look over these numbers, the more I'm struck by how bad they are for Murray. She gets clobbered by Rossi, who has run two statewide elections in the last five years, losing by ten points. But even if Rossi doesn't run, she's stuck at around 45% against the rest of the field, which includes a state senator ([Don] Benton), an inventor ([Paul] Akers), a doctor ([Art] Coday), a former pro football player and farmer ([Clint] Didier), and a businessman ([Chris] Widener). These are the type of candidates who should be pulling 30% against even an unpopular three-term Senator right now, not running neck-and-neck with her."

• RedState editor Erick Erickson continues to argue that Sen. Bob Bennett (R-UT) is "toast." Firedoglake's David Dayen doesn't understand why UT conservatives are so opposed to Bennett: "What's crazy about all this is that Bennett is basically a doctrinaire conservative. As I understand it he's being punished by his party's activists for writing a health care bill with [OR Sen.] Ron Wyden that not only didn't pass, but didn't even come close to being in the health care conversation. It's getting so that if you don't support putting a sheet up between you and the opposing party like an Orthodox Jewish wedding consummation, conservative activists will excommunicate you."
• Daily Kos founder Markos Moulitsas agrees with AR SEN candidate Gilbert Baker (R) "that [Baker's] main rival for the Republican Senate nomination, Rep. John Boozman, would have trouble besting Democrat Bill Halter in the general election." Moulitsas writes: "[W]ith Boozman as the nominee, Halter is suddenly in great shape. Boozman plays the role of entrenched DC insider incumbent, while Halter can run his full-throated outsider populist campaign. Our best shot to retain this seat in Democratic hands is for Halter to win the Democratic nomination, and for Boozman to win the Republican."
• Moulitsas isn't ready to abandon embattled IL SEN candidate Alexi Giannoulias (D): "Despite all of Giannoulias' high-profile problems, [GOP nominee Mark] Kirk is still unable to break 40 percent. Clearly, the latest bank revelations have taken their toll on Giannoulias, but have done nothing for Kirk. [...] It looks like the Giannoulias camp has a good counterattack strategy. We'll obviously be watching the polls closely to see whether Giannoulias bounces back, and whether Kirk's single-minded obsession with the story finally gets him some traction, or eventually leads to a backlash."
• '82 IA GOV nominee/ex-U.S. Atty Roxanne Conlin (D) has written a Daily Kos diary slamming Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-IA) for voting against the financial reform bill. Conlin writes: "Chuck Grassley just made clear whose side he's on. I'm calling on my friends to send their own message to Chuck Grassley here -- and tell him to vote to protect Iowans, not his Wall Street donors, if and when this bill comes back to the floor."
• The New Republic's Jonathan Chait warns that MI Dems that would be committing "assisted suicide" by nominating '98 nominee/ex-Kevorkian atty Geoffrey Fieger (D) for GOV.
• Chait thinks the long-term politics of immigration reform are great for Dems, since they will "cement Latino's political allegiance for a very long time." However, NRO's Jim Geraghty thinks the public has little appetite for immigration reform. Meanwhile, The Washington Post's Ezra Klein speculates: "If there is an immigration reform battle this year and the Republican base does do terrible damage to the party's relationship with the fast-growing Hispanic electorate, how much likelier is it that [ex-FL House Speaker] Marco Rubio -- assuming he wins his Senate race -- receives the Republican nomination for president in 2016? A lot, right?"
• The Atlantic's Andrew Sullivan thinks it's a near certainty that ex-AK Gov. Sarah Palin (R) will run for Pres. in '12, but his colleague Joshua Green disagrees.
• Influential liberal bloggers Matthew Yglesias and Ezra Klein are arguing that Sen. Ben Nelson (D-NE) hurt himself politically by joining the GOP in blocking the financial reform bill.

LEST WE FORGET: Man At Very Top Of Food Chain Chooses Bugles

From The Onion:

"SOUTH BEND, IN -- Despite having no natural enemies and belonging to a species that completely dominates its ecosystem, local IT manager Reggie Atkinson opted to consume the processed corn snack Bugles Monday. 'I was in the mood for something salty and crunchy, and it's a little early for dinner,' said the ultimate predator, whose ancestors' bipedal locomotion, toolmaking abilities, and advanced spatial recognition developments allowed them to hunt animals 10 times their size. 'These are original, but the other flavors are pretty good, too.' Acting on an impulse from an incredibly complex forebrain that has evolved over millions of years, Atkinson then took note of the Bugles' amusing conical shape and placed one on each of his opposable thumbs like little wizard hats."

• RedState is supporting physician Dan Benishek (R) over state Sen. Jason Allen (R) in the MI-01 GOP primary. Meanwhile, Daily Kos continues to support atty Ann McLane Kuster (D) over '02 nominee Katrina Swett (D) in the NH-02 Dem primary.
• RedState editor Erick Erickson declares that Sen. Bob Bennett (R-UT) is "toast": "Bob Bennett is out. He's toast. Dead man walking. Pick your description. Bob Bennett will not be the next Senator for the State of Utah despite [ex-MA Gov.] Mitt Romney himself going to the Utah State Convention and begging them to re-elect Bennett. Bob Bennett's political career is finished."
• CA SEN candidate Chuck DeVore (R) has written a post on RedState in which he criticizes Obama for refusing to use the word "genocide" when describing the 1915 slaughter of Armenians by Ottoman Turks. Meanwhile, RedState's Aaron Gardner thinks DeVore is "surging."
• NRO's Jim Geraghty conducted an interview with ex-Sen. Dan Coats (R-IN), who is running to win back his old seat. Meanwhile, Erickson -- a Marlin Stutzman (R) supporter -- blasts Coats for "refusing to file his financial disclosure for the Senate."
• Hot Air's Ed Morrissey argues that "it's not at all unlikely" that Sen. Evan Bayh (D-IN) will challenge Obama in '12: "[Bayh] retired rather than run for re-election, giving himself two years to strategize for a primary fight. Bayh also became an outspoken critic of the Obama/[Nancy] Pelosi agenda while in the Senate and argued for pulling the Democratic Party back to the center. He has both executive and legislative experience and hails from a part of the country that Obama has seriously disillusioned, the Coal/Rust Belt. While [Sec/State] Hillary [Clinton] has the taint of serving in Obama's administration, Bayh has enough distance to have credibility as an outsider. It's still unlikely that Obama wouldn't win a primary fight against Bayh or Hillary. But at least in Bayh's case, it's not at all unlikely that he'll have to have that primary fight."
• The Atlantic's Joshua Green reads Gabriel Sherman's article about ex-AK Gov. Sarah Palin (R) and concludes that Palin probably won't run for Pres. in '12: "Palin's prospects in the Republican Party are a good deal dimmer than her star wattage suggests. She's tallied middling performances in early straw polls and shows no inclination to embark on the grassroots work required of a presidential candidate. More to the point, this article makes clear that, were there any doubt, her preoccupying concern is 'building her brand' -- less in a political sense than a financial one. Palin may yet make a bid for the White House. But all evidence suggests that when the time comes to choose between earning money and running for president, Palin will choose money."
• PPP's Tom Jensen doesn't understand why people think Sen. George LeMieux (R-FL) will challenge Sen. Bill Nelson (D-FL) in '12: "George LeMieux is frequently mentioned as a potential challenger to Bill Nelson in 2012, but I have a hard time seeing him as one of the GOP's more viable candidates. When we polled Florida last month we found LeMieux with only a 13% approval rating and 33% of voters disapproving of him. He had negative numbers across party lines with a plurality of Democrats, Republicans, and independents all expressing negative feelings toward him. [...] It's hard to imagine LeMieux's run in Washington extending much further than the end of the year."

LEST WE FORGET: Roger Goodell 'Completely Skeeved Out' By Meeting With Ben Roethlisberger

From The Onion:

"NEW YORK -- NFL commissioner Roger Goodell said Wednesday that Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger will serve a six-game suspension and must attend mandatory counseling, partially for violating the league's personal-conduct policy and partially for 'giving [Goodell] the creeps' during their Apr. 13 meeting. 'Ben's bodyguards stood outside the door, and he assured me we were all alone and no one would bother us. Then he suddenly sat on my desk and tried to look at my notes, asking me what I was writing, if I was writing to another guy, or if I was telling someone else about him. At one point he sort of cornered me and I had to squeeze past him to get away,' said Goodell, adding that he just tried to get the meeting over with as fast as possible. 'He was so gross. And having his hair like that certainly doesn't help.' Goodell also remarked that he would probably still change offices, although Roethlisberger's smell had mostly gone away."

• FiveThirtyEight's Silver projects that the GOP has a 6% chance of capturing the Senate in November: "Although national trends continue to move slightly toward the Republicans -- since the start of the year, our senate model's trend estimate has them gaining ground on the Democrats at the rate of about 1 point per month in a typical race -- that momentum was offset this month by recruiting failures in Wisconsin and New York, where [ex-Gov.] Tommy Thompson and [ex-Gov.] George Pataki declined to run. Therefore, our simulation projects Republicans to gain a net of 4.0 Senate seats in this November's elections, a figure unchanged since last month."
• TPM's Marshall wonders if strong fundraising could save some of the more vulnerable Senate Dems: "[A] number of the most endangered Senate Dems -- [Harry] Reid, [Blanche] Lincoln, [Arlen] Specter, [Barbara] Boxer, et al. -- all have lots more money in the bank than their GOP rivals, even as they're struggling to do degrees in the polls. In the case of Harry Reid, for instance, something like 30 times as much as his likely rival. Money can only do so much. And there's no way national Republicans won't at the very least adequately fund these challengers. But the disparities are great enough that it's made me rethink at least a little what I think is going to happen in these races."
• PPP's Jensen thinks party disunity could cause problems for Dems in November: "Lost in the endless coverage of tension between mainstream Republicanism and the Tea Party movement (which may well be mainstream Republicanism under a different name) is the fact that when it comes to voting this fall Republicans are a good deal more unified than Democrats are. In the 11 most important Senate races that we've polled on so far this year the most likely GOP candidate is winning on average 10% more of the Republican vote than the most likely Democratic candidate is of the Democratic vote. On average GOP candidates are getting 80% support from their party's voters while the Democrats are getting 70% from theirs. [...] There's actually a silver lining for Democrats in this -- it means their candidates have more room to grow support between now and the fall. But while it's Republican disunity that gets most of the ink, it's Democratic disunity that may play a bigger role at the polls this fall. Unhappy Democrats aren't planning rallies to talk about it, they're just planning to support the GOP at the polls this fall or stay home."
• Think Progress' Matthew Yglesias is the latest high-profile liberal blogger to praise Diane Wood as a potential SCOTUS nominee: "Sheryl Gay Stolberg's NYT article on Wood's work as an outnumbered liberal on the 7th Circuit is very much worth your time. I was speaking to some progressive lawyers with experience in the relevant fields, and they emphasized to me that the key aspect in this regard isn't exactly 'persuasion' since federal judges are usually strong-minded and strong-willed people. It's mastering a certain brand of legal craftsmanship where you can put together a written opinion that people who don't necessarily share your overarching philosophy can sign on to. On a divided Supreme Court, that kind of skill is very important."
• RedState's hogan is the second conservative blogger (joining John Hinderaker) to praise TX Gov. Rick Perry (R) in the past week. Hogan writes: "Rick Perry may or may not be seeking the national stage -- he says he is not. But whether he is or is not, he has consistently recognized the need to take care of ourselves at home and to keep Washington from interfering with our lives. Keep it up, Governor -- it's the right thing to do."

LEST WE FORGET: Gotta Take Precautions

From Overheard in New York:

Stewardess on flight leaving for Chicago: Now, I realize that most of you have the following safety video memorized. However, you never know if the person sitting next to you is a first time flier, particularly safety-conscious, or an FAA inspector.

In this week's NationalJournal.com Bloggers Poll, a 56 percent majority on the right says the party should align itself somewhat closely and 22 percent say very closely. That intensity of support is roughly reversed from the last time we asked this question: Last September, 50 percent of the respondents said very closely and 29 percent said somewhat closely. Now as then, however, big majorities say some alignment is a good thing.

Among left-leaners, a 53 percent majority says the GOP should align itself closely, up from 33 percent last time. Almost 30 percent say the GOP shouldn't do it at all, down from a 47 percent plurality seven months ago.

Right-bloggers agreed Republicans should embrace what the Tea Partiers preach; the question is the movement itself. Jon Henke said the GOP should align itself somewhat closely: "Forget the alignment theater. The question is whether the Republican Party can actually win over the Tea Party movement. There are many... who are not persuaded that Republicans will actually make things better." Walter Olson argued: "When a party gets entangled with a movement, both sides lose: The party finds it harder to hold together a winning coalition and the movement finds it harder to stay principled." But Rob Port said, "The Tea Party movement is the base. Democrats are attacking the Tea Party movement exactly because they want Republicans to move away from it."

On the left, there was general consensus on two main points: The Tea Partiers do indeed represent the GOP base, and that will be bad news for Republicans in November. Brian Leubitz, who voted for very closely, said separating the base and the Tea Party is "a distinction without a difference." Chris Bowers said: "They need to be just close enough to get their votes and activism, but just far enough away to have plausible deniability when they utterly fail to enact anything the Tea Party wants into law." And Taylor Marsh added, "Bob McDonnell became Virginia governor by running undistinguished on political party, hiding his inner Tea Party persona. The far right scares people."

The bloggers were also asked whether Charlie Crist would benefit from leaving the GOP to make an independent run for Senate in Florida. No, said right-leaners (67 percent to 33 percent). Yes, said left-leaners (80 percent to 20 percent).

On the left, Tracy Viselli said, "It would be an interesting development to see a more moderate GOP candidate like Crist try this. If he succeeds, it might be something more and more moderate conservative candidates will try as the GOP veers more and more to the right." On the right, Soren Dayton was succinct: "No donor base. No voting base. These polls are ephemeral."

See complete results and all the bloggers' comments after the jump.

• Liberal bloggers are speculating about the political consequences of Lowden's "bartering" comments. Daily Kos' Jed Lewison predicts that Lowden is about to discover "how a once-promising campaign becomes a turkey." Firedoglake's David Dayen thinks that "this will reach a tipping point if Lowden's Republican rivals start using it against her."
• Several conservative bloggers are defending Lowden. Dan Riehl writes: "Bartering has a long history and tradition in America and it's great for tax purposes, too! I honestly don't see the big deal." William A. Jacobson writes: "[T]he reality is that in much of flyover country bartering -- including for health care services -- is well established and legitimate." However, Hot Air's Allahpundit thinks Lowden's comments are odd: "This won't stop me from supporting her over the guy who gifted us with the trillion-dollar boondoggle to end all boondoggles, but in fairness, had Reid said something like this, we'd have already had several thousand-comment threads goofing on him for it. What gives?"
• Bloggers continue to discuss the news that ex-state House Speaker Marco Rubio (R) is among the FL GOP pols being investigated by the IRS for potentially misusing their party credit cards for personal expenses. Daily Kos founder Markos Moulitsas thinks Rubio is a hypocrite: "Nothing says 'fiscally responsible" like the guy who used his party's credit card as his own personal earmark machine." However, John Cole doubts that the investigation will hurt Rubio's standing among his supporters: "[T]here is simply no greater achievement in the modern conservative movement than becoming a martyr. Accused by the OBAMA IRS and the 'lamestream media' of wrongdoing? They'll rally around him even if it turns out he was using the card to pay for gay sex with aborted fetuses in a bondage-themed club." Meanwhile, RedState editor Erickson Erickson continues to argue that the investigation "ha[s] more to do with [FL Gov.] Charlie Crist than Marco Rubio despite breathless headlines to the contrary."
• Open Left's Chris Bowers thinks Crist "actually has a chance" in the FL SEN race if he runs as an indie: "With the vote split three-ways, and $7.56M cash on hand (compared to $3.91M for Rubio and $3.37M for [Rep. Kendrick] Meek), Crist actually has a chance in the Florida Senate campaign. He had no chance in the Republican primary, so this was an obvious, unsurprising, and necessary move." FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver agrees that Crist has a better chance of winning as an indie than he does as a GOPer, but he still considers Crist an underdog: "Rubio certainly looks like the favorite here, and I'm not sure that Crist is particularly more likely to pull off the upset than Kendrick Meek. Going indie is likely the right move for Crist, who had no shot to win as a Republican and probably had little future in the party. [...] But the more I look at this race, the more treacherous his path seems to be."
• NRO's Jim Geraghty thinks Rep. Mike Pence's (R-IN) endorsement of ex-Sen. Dan Coats (R-IN) in the IN SEN GOP primary is a big deal: "Wow. I figure among Indiana Republicans, it's hard to find a better endorsement than Mike Pence." Erickson -- a Marlin Stutzman (R) supporter -- disagrees: "Coats is trying to get free media to say Mike Pence just endorsed him. In reality, way back in February when Coats entered the race, Mike Pence had some kind words for the former senator. Coats wants everyone to believe the kind words came as an endorsement today after [SC Sen.] Jim DeMint's endorsement of Marlin Stutzman earlier this week. It is the clearest sign yet that Marlin Stutzman is surging in Indiana and Coats is worried."
• MyDD's Nathan Empsall has conducted an interview with KY SEN candidate Jack Conway (D), whom he describes as "the young, articulate, and progressive Attorney General for the state of Kentucky, and he's running for Senate in the Democratic primary against Dan Mongiardo, the state's conservative, allegedly corrupt Lieutenant Governor." In the interview, Conway claims that "our internal polling now has us up... We really feel like we're surging."
• The Atlantic's Marc Ambinder examines the latest Pew poll and concludes that 2010 is "The Year of the Indignant Independent": "When we think of Republican-leaning independents, our binary conception of politics draws the mind to conclude that these folks tend to be more centrist than the average Republican. But that's not correct. In fact, the evidence from this poll is that they are more conservative; they reject the Republican identity not because it's too conservative, but because it did not reflect their values enough. The GOP is shrinking as a party, but the number of people who'll vote for Republican candidates is fairly constant. The tranche of Americans who occupy the space between Republican self-identifiers and the extreme reactionary right are the most politically engaged, and the most angry."

LEST WE FORGET: This Joke Would Have Been Incomprehensible Five Years Ago

McSweeney's contributor Todd Wasserman made a list of "My Family's Trending Topics":

• #wereoutofmilk
• #youspent$70onwhat
• #whatarewedoingthisweekendagain
• #didwegetanymail
• #notinthemoodtonight
• #forthelasttimeIdonthaveadrinkingproblem
• #wherearemydamnkeys

• Bloggers across the ideological spectrum doubt that an indie bid by Crist would be successful. NRO's Jim Geraghty writes: "He's basically betting his political future on the idea that he can win enough votes among the apolitical types who aren't paying attention to overcome the votes from the political types who are paying attention." MyDD's Nathan Empsall writes: "If he continues to run for the Senate past April 30, it will be completely on his own, so I just can't see his poll numbers staying where they are. There will be no major fundraising, no big name endorsements to nab headlines or put in ads, no outside armies of canvassers and volunteers. Really all he'll have is free media, and that's rarely enough to win an election anymore. Charlie Crist has reached his high-water mark." PPP's Tom Jensen thinks Crist's problems extend beyond the GOP primary electorate: "The ideological war in the Republican Party is certainly a big part of Charlie Crist's trouble right now. But he's on the decline across the board and has been pretty much since he decided to run for the Senate instead of seeking reelection as Governor. I think part of Crist's problem might be a feeling from voters that he's overly ambitious -- and leaving his party to try to get elected to the Senate won't do much to assuage that problem. It's too early to write the obituary on Crist's political career -- too many amazing comeback stories in the annals of politics to do that -- but a victory in 2010 seems unlikely under any scenario."
• Liberal bloggers think NV SEN candidate Sue Lowden (R) hurt her election prospects by expressing support for a "bartering" system of health care in which people "bring a chicken to the doctor." Daily Kos' Jed Lewison predicts that "Lowden's absurd statement is going to bite her over and over again during the course the campaign -- it's a huge gift to Harry Reid." TPM's Josh Marshall quips: "This woman's probably going to be the freshman senator from Nevada next January. Think she'll be for repeal? I wager five chickens!" Meanwhile, Balloon Juice's DougJ writes: "Add to that the facts that [ex-Rep.] J.D. Hayworth has a shot at taking out [AZ Sen. John] McCain, [UT Sen.] Bob Bennett may lose to an even nuttier conservative, [ophthalmologist] Rand Paul is in the mix in Kentucky, Marco Rubio is the front-runner in Florida...and you're looking at a 2011-2012 Senate that will likely be much crazier than the one we already have."
• RedState's Erickson is delighted that Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC) endorsed IN SEN candidate Marlin Stutzman (R): "Helping get Marlin Stutzman elected now has a lot to do with sticking up for Jim DeMint. He is going to bat for real conservatives. His record proves it. We need to stand up with Jim DeMint." Erickson also questions the conservative credentials of one of Stutzman's rivals in the GOP primary, ex-Sen. Dan Coats (R): "[Coats] was squishy on a lot of other things. [...] From nuclear energy to federal regulation to taxes, Coats is to the left of [Sen.] Dick Lugar."
• Power Line's Paul Mirengoff is disappointed by the Q1 fundraising numbers for the GOP's two leading AR SEN candidates, Rep. John Boozman and state Sen. Gilbert Baker: "To be sure, national money will roll in once the Republican nominee has been determined. But, as I understand it, the NRSC won't decide where to spend its money until late August or early September, and how much it contributes to Boozman or Baker would depend on how the candidate is polling and whether he has enough money to appear viable. [...W]hile I still think the Republicans have a very good chance to pick up this seat, success is hardly the foregone conclusion one might have expected it to be."
• Power Line's John Hinderaker is impressed by TX Gov. Rick Perry: "Is Rick Perry the most charismatic politician in America? If so, maybe it's not so farfetched to think that he could be a factor in 2012." However, RedState's Neil Stevens thinks Perry could very well lose his re-election race to ex-Houston Mayor Bill White (D): "Don't write Perry onto the Presidential ticket yet. [...ex-VA Sen.] George Allen was supposed to be a Republican frontrunner once upon a time, after all."
• HI-01 candidate Charles Djou (R) has posted a diary on RedState, urging readers to contribute to his "MoneyWave." Djou writes: "Will you help me fight back today? If we can do it here in Barack Obama's home town, we can do it in any district in America." Djou's MoneyWave has raised over $60K so far.
• Daily Kos founder Markos Moulitsas thinks Rep. Luis Gutierrez (D-IL) was correct to warn Dems that Latino voters will "stay home" in Nov. unless they try to pass comprehensive immigration reform. Moulitsas writes: "Democrats are suffering from an intensity gap, and it can ill afford to have one of its key constituencies stay home because the party welched on a key campaign promise. [...I]n a close election, where getting Democrats to the polls will mean the difference between massive losses and holding our ground, we can't afford to lose any of our base."

LEST WE FORGET: Biden Receives Lifetime Ban From Dave & Buster's

From The Onion:

"DALLAS -- Following dozens of complaints from waitstaff and numerous incidents of property damage over the past 10 years, representatives from the Dave & Buster's corporation, a bar-restaurant chain offering a wide variety of arcade games, announced today that Vice President Joe Biden has been permanently banned from all 55 locations nationwide.

The lifetime ban came after a heavily intoxicated Biden was forcibly ejected from a Bethesda, MD Dave & Buster's earlier this week for destroying a Whac-A-Mole game, which the vice president claimed had been 'rigged.' According to the ensuing police report, Biden became verbally abusive when asked to leave, calling several employees 'a bunch of killjoy c***suckers.'"

• RedState editor Erick Erickson explains how the GOP should respond to a Crist indie bid: "First, every Republican Senator who backed Crist must immediately demand their money back. That's a no brainer. Second, we need to see which Republican operatives stay with Crist and make sure they have a hard time finding work after leaving Crist. Third, I hope the Club for Growth will, like they did with [PA Sen.] Arlen Specter, get every Crist donor to demand their money back." Erickson also takes a shot at NRSC Exec. Dir. Rob Jesmer: "Charlie's diva behavior is [Jesmer's] creation and problem. It was Jesmer who wooed Crist into the race. Remember: the NRSC has said all along that Crist was their only primary endorsement because that's what it took to get Crist into the race. I warned [NRSC Chair] John Cornyn about hiring Jesmer way back at the end of 2008. Let's not let the NRSC try to walk this back and distance themselves from the disaster." Meanwhile, National Review editor Rich Lowry writes: "My understanding is that the NRSC staff and the Crist staff are still talking and most of the Crist staff would quit if he goes indie. And his vendors would, too. In the event Crist drops out, I'd expect the NRSC to move to embrace Rubio quickly and work to repair a relationship that has been non-existent since the committee endorsed the inevitable-seeming Crist last year."
• Hot Air's normally mild-mannered Allahpundit is furious with Crist: "I've donated to exactly two political campaigns in my life but if Crist goes third-party, I'll cut Rubio a check the very day he announces. [...] This is potentially a true disaster scenario, where Crist peels off just enough centrists and Republicans from Rubio to hand the seat to Kendrick Meek. I've blathered on endlessly about how tea partiers could destroy the GOP's chances in November by voting independent, but lo and behold, it's a centrist who's now poised to do the most damage in that regard. If he does this -- and I don't think he will -- he must be stopped. Prepare your checkbook." Meanwhile, Patrick Ruffini Tweets: "At this point, I don't think I can recommend voting for Charlie Crist for anything. I don't think he is well."
• Prominent liberal bloggers would welcome an indie bid by Crist. Moulitsas writes: "While a Meek-Rubio race is competitive, the GOP will still have the upper hand. [...] On the other hand, a three-way race with Rubio, Meek and Crist makes this a real crapshoot of a race. And with Rubio the presumptive nominee, it'd be good to see both Crist and Meek pounding away at the Republican. And while we'd root for Meek, a Crist victory (presuming he caucuses with Democrats, which is what the rumors suggest), would be nice consolation. So keep your fingers crossed for an independent bid." TPM's Josh Marshall is also rooting for Crist to launch an indie bid, albeit for different reasons: "[I] think it would be a good thing for the country in as much as it might get you a little closer to a sane center-right faction if not a sane center-right party in the US. Not that I see Crist as any avatar of moderation or political wisdom. But structurally I think it would be a good thing."

What else is happening in the blogosphere?

• The PA-12 special election race is getting a lot of attention in the blogosphere today. Several lefty bloggers are annoyed that ex-Murtha aide Mark Critz (D) is running about an ad in which he boasts: "I opposed the health care bill. And I'm pro-life, and pro-gun. That's not liberal." David Dayen complains that Critz "is basically telling voters that Democrats aren't to be trusted and they shouldn't hold the seat." Jerome Armstrong agrees, expressing doubt that Critz can win "by turning off whatever liberal Democrats there are in PA-12 in the first place." On the other hand, PPP's Tom Jensen thinks Critz is doing what he needs to do: "Some Democrats may not be thrilled Mark Critz is emphasizing his opposition to the health care bill as he seeks to replace John Murtha in the House, but after polling the district it's hard to see that as anything but necessary for survival. Only 28% of voters in the district express support for it with 59% opposed. Even Democrats there support it by just a 43/39 margin." Meanwhile, Erickson is urging his readers to donate money to businessman Tim Burns (R).
• In other House race news, Daily Kos is pleased that regional SEIU pol. dir. Mac D'Alessandro (D) will launch a primary challenge against Rep. Stephen Lynch (D-MA) due to the latter's vote against health care reform, while Erickson is promoting ex-state Rep. Tom Graves (R) in the GA-09 GOP primary.
• Erickson perceives momentum for IN SEN candidate Marlin Stutzman (R): "Conservatives have begun rallying en masse for Marlin Stutzman in Indiana. On Friday, Mark Levin endorsed Marlin Stutzman on the radio. This morning in Indianapolis Dave Keene of the American Conservative Union also endorsed Marlin. I suspect more are coming."
• Conservative bloggers appear divided on the KY SEN GOP primary. Dan Riehl slams ophthalmologist Rand Paul as "an impractical clown who may not even be able to win the general election given his lack of seriousness and past associations." Erickson defends his endorsement of Paul, explaining: "I think [Sec/State] Trey Grayson is a man of the party who will do the party's bidding, even when it is not in the country's best interest."
• Salon's Glenn Greenwald praises federal appeals court judge Diane Wood as "a truly ideal replacement" for retiring Justice John Paul Stevens. Greenwald writes: "If one were to analogize the search for Justice Stevens' replacement to the recently concluded health care debate, Seventh Circuit Court of Appeals Judge Diane Wood would be the public option. Just as the truly left-wing health care approach (a single-payer system) was eliminated from consideration before the process even began, so, too, have the truly left-wing candidates to replace Justice Stevens (Pam Karlan, Harold Koh) been ruled out as 'not viable.' As a result, the moderate/progressive compromises (i.e., the public option for health care and Diane Wood for Stevens' replacement) are falsely cast as some sort of liberal extremism, merely because they're the least conservative options allowed to be considered. Contrary to how she's now being cast, Judge Wood is a very cautious and law-based jurist who resides far from the further left end of the mainstream judicial spectrum, and her most distinctive attribute is the uniform respect and collegial relationships she has with her conservative colleagues on one of the nation's most right-wing courts."
• Meanwhile, several liberal bloggers are complaining about the fact that Solicitor Gen. Elena Kagan appears to be at the top of Pres. Obama's shortlist simply because of her lack of a judicial record. The Atlantic's Michael Kinsley writes: "Best of luck to Elena Kagan, but it is absurd to choose a Supreme Court justice on the basis of who we know the least about." Dayen complains: "Diane Wood is 'unacceptable' only because she had the misfortune to rule on abortion cases, unlike her rivals for the appointment who have not. Her rulings actually show the kind of judge she would be, and they remark favorably on her, but in this day and age, having a record is about the worst way to get on the Supreme Court. It's a shame, because she's clearly the most qualified potential nominee currently under discussion."

LEST WE FORGET: Mel Kiper, Jr. Explains How Justice Stevens' Retirement Affects NFL Draft

From The Onion:

"BRISTOL, CT -- According to NFL draft expert Mel Kiper, Jr., Associate Justice John Paul Stevens' announcement last week that he would be retiring from the U.S. Supreme Court altered Kiper's Big Board considerably. 'This certainly complicates things. If, for example, Obama selects 9th Circuit Court of Appeals judge Sidney Thomas, there's a good chance Jacksonville will take Sergio Kindle out of Texas instead of C.J. Spiller,' Kiper said during Tuesday's edition of SportsCenter. 'Now, if Obama goes with a jurist whose confirmation could be a long, drawn out process, like an Elizabeth Warren, the 49ers will definitely have to trade down for more picks.' Kiper added any chance of Tim Tebow being drafted in the first round was basically quashed when Obama ruled out Secretary of State Hillary Clinton for the justiceship."

• National Review editor Rich Lowry lists "Five Reasons Charlie Crist Shouldn't Go Independent." Bottom line: "His chances are poor, and it would make a future run much tougher." Meanwhile, Hot Air's Ed Morrissey thinks Crist has an alternative to running as an indie: "Instead of sticking around for a divisive battle with Rubio this year, Crist could withdraw and spend a couple of years rebuilding himself for a 2012 challenge against Democratic incumbent Bill Nelson. The state GOP would likely encourage Crist by promising better support the next time around if Crist doesn't get in Rubio's way to the Senate this year. The big question will be whether Crist has taken too much damage in this cycle to be viable in 2012 if another Rubio-like conservative decides to toss his or her hat in the ring."
• MyDD's Nathan Empsall reports: "I just got off the phone with Kentucky AG Jack Conway...Conway said that according to their internal polling, he's now moved ahead of Lt. Gov. Daniel Mongiardo in the primary."
• PPP's Tom Jensen notes that two recent polls gave Sen. Richard Burr (R-NC) "his worst numbers ever." Jensen concludes: "We still don't really know the answer to whether the country is exclusively in an anti-Democratic mood or if it's an anti-incumbent one but if it turns out to be the latter, Burr will be the first Republican Senator to go."
• Daily Kos founder Markos Moulitsas reports that the latest Daily Kos/Research 2000 poll of the HI-01 special election race shows Honolulu City Councilor Charles Djou (R) with a statistically insignificant lead over ex-Rep. Ed Case (D) and state Sen. Colleen Hanabusa (D). Moulitsas writes: "Whoever wins this election will still face reelection in November, so even if Djou wins this overwhelmingly Democratic district, he'd be renting the seat for a few months at best." NRO's Jim Geraghty calls the results "a good sign, but there's still a lot of work to Djou."
• In other House race news, Daily Kos continues to promote the candidacy of Ann McLane Kuster in the NH-02 Dem primary.
• Firedoglake's David Dayen attended the CA Dem convention, where he reported on Sen. Barbara Boxer's and AG Jerry Brown's speeches to the delegates.
• RedState editor Erick Erickson is accusing Dems of "colluding to destroy Goldman Sachs to pass financial reform." Meanwhile, FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver thinks Dems have "a Dodd Problem": "[O]ne wonders if the Republicans would be so bold in opposing the legislation if its champion were a scrappy populist like [OH Sen.] Sherrod Brown or [MT Sen.] Jon Tester instead, or a relative unknown like Rhode Island's Jack Reed (all of whom are on the Senate Banking Committee along with [CT Sen. Chris] Dodd). With the public looking for navigation beacons to shed light on an area they don't particularly understand, it may just be too easy to tar Dodd with the bailout brush, and his legislation along with it."

LEST WE FORGET: Report: China To Overtake U.S. As World's Biggest Asshole By 2020

From The Onion:

"WASHINGTON -- According to a new report released Monday by a panel of top economists and social scientists, the People's Republic of China will overtake the United States as the world's dominant asshole by the year 2020.

The findings, published in the most recent issue of Foreign Affairs, support recent speculation that America's unquestioned reign as the leading super-prick may soon be drawing to a close, leaving China as the foremost shithead among all developed nations.

'We are seeing a changing of the asshole guard,' said Andrew Freireich, noted economist and lead author of the article. 'Although the U.S. will remain among the world's two or three biggest cocks through much of this century, we can now confidently project that China, with its soaring economic growth, ever-expanding cultural influence, and total disregard for basic human rights, will overtake America as King Prick Numero Uno within the next 10 years.'"

• Conservative bloggers are interpreting Mack's decision to resign from Crist's FL SEN camp as a sign that Crist will soon leave the GOP. Allahpundit writes: "I know today's veto was a big deal but it surely wasn't so big that Mack would cut ties to his own protege over it in an act of conscience. Either he's using this as a pretext to head for the lifeboats because the Republican nomination is now officially unwinnable or Crist's told him privately that he's running as an independent and Mack refuses to go against the party."
• Meanwhile, several righty bloggers are promoting a report from a FL FOX affiliate that Crist will soon leave the GOP. One RedState blogger is already issuing a warning: "If Crist dumps [the] GOP, [the] GOP should dump NRSC's Chief Strategist Rob Jesmer." Other conservative bloggers doubt that an indie run will improve Crist's chances of winning the Senate seat. Ruffini tweets: "If [Crist] can't raise money now how can he raise it without a party behind him?" Geraghty writes: "Charlie Crist seems to think the Arlen Specter route is his best course; apparently he hasn't seen a poll in Pennsylvania lately." Geraghty also speculates that Sen. George LeMieux (R-FL) would endorse Rubio over Crist if the latter left the GOP, since local columnists are reporting that LeMieux wants to challenge Sen. Bill Nelson (D-FL) in '12.
• RedState's Erickson is urging conservatives to rally behind state Sen. Marlin Stutzman in the IN SEN GOP primary, saying: "[Ex-Sen. Dan] Coats cannot win. Marlin Stutzman can and will." Erickson also criticizes Coats' $379K Q1 fundraising haul: "The NRSC's latest star can't raise money. Coats is toast."
• Nathan Empsall thinks that KY AG Jack Conway (D) is making a "surge" while KY LG Daniel Mongiardo (R) is "tanking." Jerome Armstrong agrees, arguing that Mongiardo "got caught standing still and now appears a bit of shell-shocked."
• Chris Bowers thinks that ex-WI Gov./ex-HHS Sec. Tommy Thompson's (R) decision not to challenge Sen. Russ Feingold (D-WI) guarantees that Dems will maintain control of the Senate following the '10 midterms.
• Daily Kos is endorsing physician/Iraq vet Manan Trivedi (D) in his effort to unseat Rep. Jim Gerlach (R-PA).
• The Atlantic's Marc Ambinder has written an interesting post comparing NJ Gov. Chris Christie (R) with VA Gov. Bob McDonnell (R).

LEST WE FORGET: Never Say Never

From Overheard in New York:

Five-year-old girl: This is where rich people shop, right mommy?
Mother: Yes it is.
Five-year-old girl: Will we ever shop here?
Mother: Not while I'm still married to your father.

-- Bus on 5th Ave

Majorities on both the left and the right in this week's NationalJournal.com Bloggers Poll call comprehensive reform unlikely this year. Among left-leaning bloggers, a 40 percent plurality said it was somewhat unlikely, and 30 percent very unlikely. Among right-leaners, a 55.6 percent majority called it very unlikely and only 11.1 percent judged it even somewhat likely.

Cheryl Contee, one of the left-leaning bloggers who said an immigration bill has a chance, called reform "a top priority for important demographics" and said both parties "will be eager to send strong signals to Latino and Asian-American voters for the midterm elections." But the doubters dominated. On the right, Walter Olson said "the Dems' best hope is to maneuver Republicans into getting their fingerprints on a reform bill. The timing for that is not good now." Dan McLaughlin added, "It's past time to break up the immigration proposals into bite-size pieces so the popular ones can pass." On the left, Maegan la Mala said, "The language preview that advocates and activists have seen is not promising." And Gregg Levine said, "The real nut of Reid's statement was the usual 'We have 50-something Dem votes, so we'll just say we want to do this and then blame Republican obstructionism when nothing happens.'"

Both sides were similarly in sync when asked if they'd be open to supporting some form of a value-added tax. On the left, one-third said yes, and on the right, only 16.7 percent did. And even they held their noses. "'Some version'? Sure. Especially on luxury items," said Big Tent Democrat. On the right, Steven Taylor said, "I could see supporting a VAT under certain circumstances that included a substantial overhaul of the entire federal tax system." The left-leaning no voters mainly touted a progressive income tax instead, and the right-leaners saw it as too much money collected -- and wasted.

See complete results and all the bloggers' comments after the jump.