November 20, 2009

11/20: 'Cause Everyone Loves Some Senate Speculation...

Two pieces of news concerning the 2010 Senate races are currently making the rounds in the blogosphere. First, bloggers are discussing the New York Daily News report alleging that ex-NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R) "has decided against running for governor, but is strongly considering running for U.S. Senate." Liberal bloggers have a mixed reaction to this news. On the one hand, they think that Giuliani is wise to avoid a GOV race against the popular AG Andrew Cuomo (D) and instead challenge Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D), whom he currently leads in the polls. That said, they don't think Giuliani is a lock to defeat Gillibrand, since "he enjoys, at present, a vast name recognition advantage over Gillibrand which would certainly dissipate over time." One conservative blogger agrees that Giuliani might have trouble beating Gillibrand, since the conservative positions he adopted during last year's WH campaign "would be very difficult to overcome running for Senate in an overwhelmingly Democratic state."

Bloggers are also discussing the new Daily Kos/Research 2000 poll showing ex-FL House Speaker Marco Rubio (R) gaining ground on Gov. Charlie Crist (R) in their Senate primary race. Daily Kos founder Markos Moulitsas thinks Crist needs to become a Dem if he wants to win the seat, since he's "toast in the Republican primary." Conservative blogger Allahpundit is "inclined to agree" with Moulitsas.

What else is happening in the blogosphere?

• Liberal bloggers (Bowers, Benen) are growing increasingly frustrated with the centrist Dem senators who haven't committed to voting for cloture on the health care reform bill. Lately, Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) appears to be getting the most attention from lefty bloggers (digby, Hamsher, Silver). Meanwhile, RedState is urging its readers to call their senators and tell them to vote against starting a debate on the bill.
• Liberal bloggers (Lewison, Drum, Yglesias, Uygur, Bowers, Serwer, Dayen, Singer, digby, Kurtz, Benen, Klein) are buzzing about a new PPP poll which found that "52% majority of GOP voters nationally think that ACORN stole the Presidential election for Barack Obama last year, with only 27% granting that he won it legitimately."
• Sen. Arlen Specter (D-PA) held a conference call with liberal bloggers (Ackerman, Fernholz, Llorens) to discuss his opposition to a potential troop increase in Afghanistan. Meanwhile, ex-Sen. Fred Thompson (R-TN) is receiving some criticism from the rightroots (McLaughlin, Hegseth, Allahpundit) for declaring that "the war [in Afghanistan] has been lost."
• Liberal bloggers (Dayen, Willis, Black) are excited about a new poll commissioned by FL Senate Min. Leader Al Lawson showing Lawson leading Blue Dog Rep. Allen Boyd in the FL-02 Dem primary.
• Conservative bloggers are disappointed that the Senate voted to confirm Judge David Hamilton, Obama's nominee for the 7th Circuit Court of Appeals, despite a rightroots lobbying campaign.

NY SEN: Rudy Eyes Kirsten

Although they acknowledge that Giuliani currently leads Gillibrand in the polls, liberal bloggers don't think that he's assured of a victory:

• Daily Kos' Steve Singiser: "This makes sense for Giuliani on several levels: recent polling has shown Giuliani trailing likely Democratic candidate Andrew Cuomo, but leading Gillibrand in a Senate matchup. Also, Giuliani's ego is certainly up to another national bid from President, and a winning Senate campaign is certainly a better launching pad for such ambitions than a losing gubernatorial bid. Of course, should he run for the Senate, his victory is nowhere near assured. Despite being a nominal challenger, he enjoys, at present, a vast name recognition advantage over Gillibrand which would certainly dissipate over time."
• MyDD's Jonathan Singer: "The polling on the [NY SEN] race suggests that [a Giuliani victory] could be a genuine possibility, with Rudy Giuliani leading Democratic incumbent Kirsten Gilibrand by a 51 percent to 40 percent margin in recent Marist polling and a 53 percent to 36 percent margin in recent Siena (.pdf) polling. What's more, considering that Giuliani isn't going to beat Andrew Cuomo, who many believe will end up being the Democrats' gubernatorial nominee, a decision to run for the Senate rather than for Governor makes sense on another level. Then again, New Yorkers are going to vote for a Senator they know is going to immediately turn around and run for President, a Senator who would almost undoubtedly be an absentee legislator spending more time on the hustings in Iowa than in the halls of Congress? Hard to imagine."

Conservative blogger Philip Klein thinks Giuliani will face "an uphill battle" if he challenges Gillibrand: "[L]et's keep in mind that over the course of his bid for the 2008 Republican nomination, Giuliani moved to the right in an attempt to appease conservatives. While he remained pro-choice, for instance, he still moved against federal funding for abortion (a very hot topic right now), pledged to appoint conservative judges, and said that overturning Roe v. Wade would be okay. Such positions -- as well as plenty of statements to conservatives over the course of the campaign -- would be very difficult to overcome running for Senate in an overwhelmingly Democratic state. While polls don't reflect it now, Giuliani may actually have a better shot running for governor, a position for which he can run on executive competence, then running for Senate -- on which he will get hammered on how he would vote on national issues."

Klein also thinks that Giuliani would have a tough time winning the GOP WH '12 nod: "As for running for president in 2012, that wouldn't make any sense to me. Even if he were to win the Senate seat, the battle for the Republican nomination would begin the morning after. After repositioning himself as a moderate once again to win in New York, Giuliani would then have to instantly turn around again to court the conservative base. And throughout 2011 -- theoretically his first year in office -- his potential rivals would be hunkering down in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina. If he joins them, he'll recieve a heap of criticism back home, and yet if he doesn't, he'd have no realistic chance of competing. And without much of a voting record to reassure conservatives who rejected him in 2008, there's no reason to think he'd make the sale in 2012."

Hot Air's Allahpundit agrees: "A RINO like Rudy stands even less of a chance in the [WH] primaries now, after [AZ Sen. John] McCain's flameout and the tea-party backlash to less-than-true conservatives, than he did last year. But as a senator? Hmmmm."

FL SEN: Rubio Rising

Daily Kos' Moulitsas thinks Crist should become a Dem if he wants to maximize his odds of winning the race: "These trendlines are bleak for Crist, and there's little chance of him surviving. Remember, Rubio hasn't spent a dime on media yet. This is all grassroots driven, and the teabaggers are engaged, angry, and looking for the next [Dede] Scozzafava. Crist is in their crosshairs, and the governor has been flopping all over the place hoping to stem this growing tide against him, and failing. Note -- 50 percent of Republicans still don't know who Rubio is. The more he raises his name ID, the better he does. [...] If I'm Charlie Crist, I realize that I'm toast in the Republican primary. I note that a three-way race is a coin flip at best. But as a Democrat... switching parties and making an earnest transition on the issues would be the cleanest path to a Senate seat. Whether we'd want him as a Democrat is another story, and one that would depend heavily on how he managed his party switch. But it's clear that he's no longer welcome in his own party. And he has a choice to make -- remain as a hated interloper in his existing party, or try to find a more hospitable home elsewhere."

Conservative blogger Allahpundit agrees with Moulitsas: "Kos himself thinks Crist is all but finished. For once, I'm inclined to agree with him. [...] Not only hasn't Rubio spent on media yet, but he can count on boatloads of earned media from the right. The question, then: Will Crist pull a Specter and switch? As in Pennsylvania, Florida's primary is closed so the centrist can't count on independents to bail him out. As a Democrat, Crist leads Rubio in a general election match-up 45/34 -- but even there, 21 percent are undecided."

The Washington Monthly's Steve Benen adds: "For the record, there hasn't been so much as a hint from Crist about a willingness to switch [parties]. On the contrary, he's spent the last several weeks trying in vain to convince Florida Republicans that he's really more conservative than he seems (which, incidentally, is what Arlen Specter did before he realized it was a lost cause and became a Dem). For that matter, it's not at all clear if Florida Democrats would accept Crist with open arms. But it's fun to ponder, I suppose."

THOUGHT OF THE DAY: McCain And The Climate Change bill

Think Progress' Matthew Yglesias thinks the new Rasmussen poll showing McCain in a virtual tie with conservative ex-Rep. J.D. Hayworth (R-AZ) is bad news for progressives:

"This seems like pretty much terrible news for the world. The most likely path between Point A and Senate passage of a reasonable climate bill is for McCain to rediscover his interest in the issue. But that's not the sort of thing a Senator worried about a right-wing primary challenge is likely to do. It would be different if, say, [DHS Sec./ex-AZ Gov.] Janet Napolitano were mounting a strong challenge for the seat, but instead Democrats have no major contender in the field."

LEST WE FORGET: Heroin Addicts Pressure President To Stay Course In Afghanistan

From The Onion:

"LOS ANGELES -- As the White House considers sweeping strategic shifts in the war in Afghanistan, heroin addicts across the nation called on President Obama Monday to stick with the current U.S. policy, which has flooded the world market with low-price narcotics. 'There's no need to change nothing, Joe Biden,' said addict Reginald 'Bones' Dillow, who, when conscious, is an outspoken proponent of the U.S. military strategy that has resulted in a nearly 40-fold increase in Afghan opium production since the end of Taliban rule in 2001. 'Everything is so cheap -- it's all totally fine like it is, right? Over there, I mean. Why would you want to...do the...[garbled].' Obama is reportedly looking into economic incentives that would both persuade poor Afghans to cease opium cultivation and benefit chemically dependent Americans, the most promising of which involves constructing facilities in the war-torn country for the manufacture of methadone."

Posted by Ian Faerstein at November 20, 2009 12:14 PM