November 17, 2009

11/17: Castles Made Of Sand

Last week we noted that liberal bloggers were buzzing about a PPP survey that signaled potential re-election difficulties for Sen. Olympia Snowe (R-ME). Now a new poll has grabbed the attention of lefty bloggers: a Susquehanna survey showing AG Beau Biden (D) surging ahead of Rep. Mike Castle (R) in the DE Senate race. There are probably several reasons why the netroots are so excited about this poll. First, it provides liberals with some much-needed good news after last week's Gallup poll showing GOPers moving ahead of Dems on the 2010 generic cong. ballot. Second, liberal bloggers love the theory that Biden's surge "may be a result of negative publicity [Castle] received in the state after casting a 'no' vote for President Obama's health care reform bill." Jonathan Singer writes: "This shouldn't come as too much of a surprise to us, even as it might be to some inside the Beltway -- that it's not good politics for blue state Republicans (particularly those running for statewide office) to vote like party hacks on key votes like healthcare reform."

What else is happening in the blogosphere?

• Conservative bloggers (Erickson, Johnson, Goldfarb, Wehner) continue to criticize the Obama admin.'s decision to prosecute 9/11 suspect Khalid Shaikh Mohammed in a federal court.
• Liberal bloggers (McCarter, Serwer, Benen) are buzzing about the news that three prominent conservative leaders have endorsed the Obama admin.'s plan to transfer several Guantanamo Bay detainees to an IL prison facility.

DE SEN: Mike Voted No; Now Here Comes Beau!

Most liberal bloggers are attributing Castle's sliding poll numbers to his vote against the House health care reform bill:

• MyDD's Singer: "This shouldn't come as too much of a surprise to us, even as it might be to some inside the Beltway -- that it's not good politics for blue state Republicans (particularly those running for statewide office) to vote like party hacks on key votes like healthcare reform."
• The Washington Monthly's Steve Benen: "I don't want to make too much of this. It's only one poll, and it's possible additional data will point in a more ambiguous direction. But if the poll is right, it offers an important counterweight to the notion that support for health care reform is necessarily an electoral loser, and opposition is automatically a ticket to victory."
• Daily Kos' mcjoan: "Healthcare reform is popular -- the nation recognizes that something has to be done to fix this broken system, and it's abundantly clear that the Republicans aren't going to be a part of the solution. Despite the cowardice of Blue Dogs and ConservaDems, who don't ever want to take any kind of controversial vote, this issue isn't one that's going to drive voters away, particularly those independent voters."
• TAPPED's Tim Fernholz: "Castle was/is considered a very strong contender for the vice president's old Senate seat, but he's only popular in Delaware so long as he is a moderate Republican. Now that he's joined the rest of the House Republicans in opposing President Obama's agenda, his moderation has to be called into question. At some point, the Republican leadership is going to have to ask themselves what forcing their entire caucus to vote against each major Obama agenda item is getting them. Voters are already pretty clear that Republicans oppose the Democrats' vision, but when GOP leaders turn every vote into a litmus test for the moderate members of their caucus, it's going to have electoral results that end with fewer Republicans in office. Those votes don't really help Castle on the right, either -- the usual crowd is already lambasting Castle for his moderate reputation, and, of course, there is a conservative primary challenger."

Think Progress' Matthew Yglesias sarcastically calls Dave Weigel as a "crazy person" for "push[ing a] lunatic theory that casting hard-right votes is sometimes politically problematic for Republicans": "As everyone knows, when the Democratic president and Democratic congressional majorities press for the progressive legislation they campaigned on, it's very politically risky. Meanwhile, nobody faces any risks for obstructing that agenda. After all, these Democrats all got elected by accident, not because any of them or anything they stand for is popular. That's why Dave Weigel's post about how Beau Biden is now leading Mike Castle by five points in polling instead of trailing hum by 20 is so nuts."

THOUGHT OF THE DAY: Nobody Wants A Piece Of Burr

FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver:

"Recruitment efforts are becoming seriously problematic for the Democrats. Take North Carolina, for instance, where former State Senator Cal Cunningham now says he won't run to challenge [GOP Sen.] Richard Burr, the latest in a long line of Democrats to do so. Democrats still have a reasonably decent candidate in Secretary of State Elaine Marshall, but this a big step down from [AG] Roy Cooper or possibly [Rep.] Heath Shuler, neither of whom were tempted to enter the running. Even if there's some late swing of 'momentum' back toward the Democrats next summer as a result of an improving economy or whatever else, they will probably have squandered a couple of opportunities based on fears about the 2010 environment that emerged earlier in the process."

LEST WE FORGET: Sexy Times At Band Camp

McSweeney's contributor E.M. Gala makes a list of "Phrases My Orchestra Conductor Has Said to Me That Could Get Him Fired if Said Out of Context":

• "Sub-divide."
• "Use your diaphragm."
• "Blow harder."
• "Finger your parts."
• "Pluck your G-string."
• "Don't get lazy on me. Use all the positions."
• "Just because we slow down the tempo doesn't mean you can slow down the pace."

Posted by Ian Faerstein at November 17, 2009 12:17 PM