October 07, 2009

10/7: Movement In The Mid-Atlantic?

Liberal bloggers have spent the past few months focusing on national issues (namely, health care reform), so they haven't been paying as much attention to local races. But two recent developments have prompted lefty bloggers to start talking about statewide races again. First, a new Fairleigh Dickinson Univ. poll showed NJ Gov. Jon Corzine (D) leading ex-U.S. Atty Chris Christie (R) for the first time in months. Lefty bloggers are now buzzing about Corzine's momentum (although righty bloggers argue that Christie is still favored). Second, Rep. Mike Castle (R-DE) decided to run for Senate next year. The netroots think Castle is either even-money or slightly favored to win, although they're confident that Dems can capture his old House seat.

What else is happening in the blogosphere?

• Liberal bloggers (Moulitsas, Lewison, Aravosis, Black, Yglesias, Benen) are blasting the NRCC for issuing a press release urging Gen. Stanley McChrystal to "put [Speaker Nancy Pelosi] in her place."
• RedState editor Erick Erickson is urging his readers to support the Conservative Party candidate, Doug Hoffman, over the GOP candidate, "the ACORN backed Dede Scozzafava," in the NY-23 race.
• Liberal bloggers (McCarter, Hamsher) are pleased that the NE Dem party "put the state's senior senator, Ben Nelson, in an awkward spot" by passing a resolution expressing support for a public insurance option. However, Nelson still refuses to commit to voting against a GOP filibuster of health care legislation. Meanwhile, liberal bloggers (Lewison, Benen, Kurtz, Eli) are surprised and pleased that FOX News anchor Shepard Smith gave an impassioned defense of the public option during an inteview with Sen. John Barrasso (R-WY).
• Conservative bloggers (Johnson, Liebau, Goldberg, Jacobson, Lopez) are still speculating that ex-Weather Underground member Bill Ayers secretly wrote Obama's autobiography, Dreams From My Father. However, one conservative blogger thinks the theory is bogus.

NJ GOV: Comeback Corzine?

Liberal bloggers are buzzing about the new Fairleigh Dickinson Univ. poll that gives Corzine his first lead over Christie in months:

• MyDD's Jonathan Singer: "Corzine has the momentum as Christie continues to sink badly. What's more, as I noted last week, considering that pre-election polling in New Jersey has consistently underestimated support for Democratic candidates -- in the 2002 Senate campaign, in the 2004 presidential campaign, in the 2005 gubernatorial campaign, and in the 2006 Senate campaign -- the fact that Corzine has now caught up with Christie in this polling means that the Democrat has a much greater shot at victory in this race than at virtually any other previous point in this campaign. And even if you gave me some odds, I'm not sure that at this point I'd put any money on Christie to eek out a victory."
• TPM's Josh Marshall: "All but one poll shows Christie with some lead, even if only two or three points. But the trend is pretty clear. And it's a perilous place for a New Jersey Republican to be. Because the state has a long history of Republicans candidates who held comfortable leads and then watched them melt away in October and see the Democrat take it in November."
• Daily Kos' Steve Singiser: "This dissolution of the Chris Christie inevitability has come gradually. It began in earnest in August and early September, when the GOP nominee seemed to suffer through an apparent avalanche of self-inflicted ethical mini-scandals. Right at that point, his once-insurmountable lead in the governors race began to dissipate. That dissipation began to accelerate in past few weeks, when the barrage of bad news cycles for Christie were augmented by the growing sense that he had been less than forthcoming about his prescriptions for the state, a fact so glaring that even the right-leaning Wall Street Journal slapped him around for it last week. His proclivity to avoid details was on display in last week's debate, a debate in which voters according to the FDU poll said he came in a distant third."

On the right side of the blogosphere, AmSpec Blog's W. James Antle, III still thinks Christie is favored: "The fundamentals here still favor Christie, I think. First of all, Corzine's lead is within the margin of error. When you look at the questions besides the head-to-head matchup, the governor's numbers are terrible. Corzine's numbers remain stuck in the mid-to-low 40s even after the ad blitz, a terrible place for an incumbent to be. It shows the voters have made up their mind about him. Finally, unlike past races where New Jersey has teased Republicans by giving the GOP candidate competitive poll numbers and then a decisive defeat on election day (think Dick Zimmer), Corzine has actually trailed for most of this year. Corzine could still pull it out if enough people vote for the independent candidates, splitting the anti-Corzine vote and letting the governor be re-elected with 40 to 45 percent. [...] But I wouldn't look at this one poll and conclude Jon Corzine is going to get four more years just yet."

DE SEN: Storming The Castle

Liberal bloggers think Castle will be a formidable opponent, although they're pleased that Dems now have a chance to capture his old House seat:

• Marshall: "Big Break for GOP. [...] Castle's decision instantly makes this a competitive race."
• MyDD's desmoinesdem: "Biden will have to fight for this one, although he won't be as big an underdog as his father was the first time he ran for U.S. Senate in 1972. It's too bad that Democrats will have to invest resources in holding this seat (now represented by placeholder appointee Ted Kaufman). On the plus side, we are very likely to win the at-large House seat Castle will be vacating."
• Singiser: "This immediately changes the calculus of the Senate race, as Democrats defend the open seat created by the elevation of Joe Biden to the Vice-Presidency. Without exaggeration, it is fair to say that Castle was the only Republican in the state with a chance of flipping this seat to the GOP. Indeed, recent polling has shown that Castle actually holds a narrow lead over the most likely Democratic entrant into the race, state Attorney General Beau Biden. Without question, it would be one of the most watched races in the campaign cycle. A true toss-up, if ever there was one. [...] One aspect of the Castle decision that is being overlooked, however, is the fact that this creates an almost certain Democratic takeover of the state's long House seat. Former state Lt. Governor John Carney has been in the race since the Spring, and has already raised an enviable war chest. Furthermore, the GOP bench in Delaware is painfully thin. It is hard to find a way for the GOP to hang onto this seat."
• FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver: "Castle's odds are somewhere north of [55-60%]. With that said, the race is no gimme, particularly if as expected Castle is opposed by Joe Biden's son Beau, who is currently Delaware's Attorney General. Polling released by Rasmussen and PPP had shown Castle with leads of 5 and 8 points in an as-then-hypothetical matchup against Beau Biden. Castle recently turned 70 and has had some health issues and is unlikely to be as energetic [as] his 40-year-old opponent. Although a gifted and experienced handler of his constituents, Castle may also run into trouble trying to balance some of the more radical elements of the his party with his centrist positioning, a problem common to all moderate Republicans. And, given that the Vice President's son is running, we can expect the White House to go 'all-in' on this race, although the Biden last name could be a fundraising magnet for Republicans as well."

THOUGHT OF THE DAY: Why Are We Worried About Afghanistan, Exactly?

The Atlantic's Jeffrey Goldberg:

"Sorry for saying this again, but I'm not clear about why Afghanistan is the central front in the war on Islamist terror. Afghanistan did not produce the terrorists who perpetrated the 9/11 attacks, nor did it have a central role in the creation of the ideology of those terrorists (the Soviet defeat in Afghanistan, of course, created feelings of superiority in Islamists, but that's another story). It is an Arab-made ideology, and to a lesser though still important degree, Pakistani-made, ideology that concerns us most. And it is Arab and Pakistani terrorists who are our main concern. Obviously, the U.S. should be in the business of denying safe havens to al-Qaeda terrorists in Afghanistan, but occupying and reforming a country that has proven itself so resistant to occupation and reform, and which isn't the at the root of the ideology we claim we're fighting -- I'm not sure I get it. A more central front is Pakistan; another more central front is Yemen. Cairo, London and Paris are also central fronts. Iran is a central front of a different sort. And yes, Iraq is a central front. But Afghanistan?

And no, I'm not advocating an invasion of Pakistan or Yemen or Cairo or London. But I believe that we should at least get our categories straight. Victory in Afghanistan won't do much to change what is essentially an Arab problem."

LEST WE FORGET: Obama: Health Care Plan Would Give Seniors Right To Choose How They Are Killed

From The Onion:

"WASHINGTON -- President Barack Obama held a nationally televised address Tuesday to 'clarify any misunderstandings' about his health care proposal, assuring Americans that under the new bill senior citizens -- and not the federal government -- will have the right to choose how they are executed.

'Let me dispel these ridiculous rumors once and for all and set the record straight: Under my plan, seniors are going to be killed the way they want to be killed, end of story,' said the president, who acknowledged that 'wiping out' the nation's elderly population has always been his No. 1 priority. 'If your grandmother would rather be euthanized in the privacy of her own home than be gutted and hanged on a high school soccer field, she is entitled to that right.'

'Once again, let me be perfectly clear,' Obama continued. 'Seniors, rest easy knowing that I will never, under any circumstance, sign a bill that doesn't give you the option of being murdered by my administration in a manner of your choosing. I promise you that.'"

Posted by Ian Faerstein at October 7, 2009 12:41 PM