October 30, 2009

10/30: Hoffmania

Of the various elections taking place on 11/3, the one that means the most to conservative bloggers is the election in NY-23. Righty bloggers are buzzing about the new Daily Kos/Research 2000 poll showing Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman surging into a tie with Dem Bill Owens. The rightroots see this poll as evidence that the race has become a two-man battle between Hoffman and Owens, with GOPer Dede Scozzafava "turning into an afterthought". Meanwhile, as more and more GOP polls embrace Hoffman, conservative bloggers continue to apply pressure to the remaining holdouts. RedState editor Erick Erickson issues a warning to two potential WH '12 candidates who haven't endorsed Hoffman:

"Sitting on the sidelines in this race is not an option for [ex-MA Gov. Mitt] Romney or [ex-AR Gov. Mike] Huckabee. Neither is qualified as a leader of conservatives when they will not support Doug Hoffman. It is as simple as that. And we will remember in 2012."

What else is happening in the blogosphere?

• Conservative bloggers (Geraghty, Dayton, Hinderaker) are accusing NJ Dems of trying to commit absentee-ballot fraud in order to pad Gov. Jon Corzine's (D) vote totals.
• RedState's Erickson continues to accuse FL Gov. Charlie Crist (R) of creating an anonymous website attacking his SEN primary rival, ex-state House Speaker Marco Rubio (R).
• Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D) held a conference call with liberal bloggers (McCarter, Bowers, Aravosis, Amato) after introducing the House health care reform bill yesterday. Other lefty bloggers (Yglesias, Benen, Walker, Hamsher) are discussing the House bill and comparing it to the Senate bills. Meanwhile, liberal bloggers (digby, Cole, Benen, Willis) are still hammering Sen. Evan Bayh (D-IN) for his comments about health care reform.
• Liberal bloggers (Benen, Drum, BooMan, Kleiman) are praising Pres. Obama for succeeding in his effort to eliminate expensive weapons programs from the defense appropriations bill.

Finally, please check back later today for our interview with Riehl World View's Dan Riehl!

NY-23: Scozza-who?

Conservative bloggers see the Daily Kos/Research 2000 poll as evidence that it's now a two-man race between Hoffman and Owens:

• Erickson: "This is an Owens-Hoffman race now. [...] With a race this close and Hoffman's base profoundly fired up, he could realistically win this race."
• NRO's Jim Geraghty: "Of course, this [poll] doesn't mean Hoffman isn't winning; it just tells us that it's a close race, and that Scozzafava is, as mentioned earlier, turning into an afterthought."
• Hot Air's Allahpundit: "Remember...that the campaigns have been whispering for the past week that internal polls show a two-man race now with Scozzafava fading. Consider this confirmation."

Allahpundit continues: "R2000 did miss an opportunity, though, by failing to poll Scozzafava voters on who their second choice is. That would have finally given us a sense of how things are likely to break if her supporters decide she's a lost cause next week and force themselves to choose between Owens and Hoffman. Instead, they polled Hoffman's supporters on that question, which was stupid given that he's vaulted past her and thus is no longer the one playing spoiler. What's fascinating about this election is that not only has the nominee of one of the major parties been relegated to the traditional third-party role of bleeding votes from a more popular candidate, but because Scozzafava's essentially running in the center, between Owens and Hoffman, there's no telling who she's bleeding more votes from. Are supporters of the liberal Republican more inclined to break for a Republican or for a liberal?"

NY-23 II: The View From The Left

Liberal bloggers agree with their conservative counterparts that Hoffman appears to be surging:

• Daily Kos' Markos Moulitsas: "If Scozzafava's fade continues, Hoffman will win this thing. Democratic chances hinge on halting the Hoffman surge, which is why the DCCC has trained its guns on the conservative party candidate."
• MyDD's Jonathan Singer: "With support for Hoffman growing 9 points over the past week or so, he clearly has the momentum. That said, the race remains very close and still could go either way."
• TPM's Josh Marshall: "With the surge in support for Doug Hoffman in NY-23 and the news that outside groups have dumped $3 million into the race, could it now be that Republican nominee Dede Scozzafava is the spoiler and spoiling it for Dem Bill Owens?"

Moulitsas explains why he isn't rooting for any of the candidates: "It's clear now that Scozzafava, were she victorious next week, would have to turn hard-right to survive the inevitable primary challenge next year. In fact, it's hard to see how she doesn't lose a 2010 primary to Hoffman. She's pretty much toast -- if not next week, then next year. So the chances of being a [Susan] Collins/[Olympia] Snowe-type Republican are non-existent. Unlike what I wrote a month ago, there's no longer any upside to her winning. [...] So I'm no longer rooting for a Scozzafava victory. That gets us nothing. And I'm not rooting for a Hoffman victory, and I'm certainly not rooting for Owens because I'm over Lieberdems."

Although he isn't invested in the outcome of the race, Moulitsas is still critical of NARAL for spending money on Scozzafava's behalf: "Assuming they don't want conservative party teabagger Doug Hoffman to win, this is beyond stupid. First of all, Scozzafava is dead-woman walking. Her numbers are tanking and she's been effectively marginalized out of the race. Her role now is that of spoiler -- can she take enough votes away from Hoffman to give the Democrat, Bill Owens, a plurality victory? This NARAL effort is indistinguishable from the conservative dirty tricksters. When your messaging and tactics are indistinguishable from the right-wing dirty tricksters, you know you've screwed up. Nice waste of donor money."

THOUGHT OF THE DAY: NY-23 Across America

The Next Right's Patrick Ruffini:

"The key fact that sticks out in my mind about Doug Hoffman's incredible momentum in NY-23 is that his election would not have been possible had he been the Republican nominee. The fact that we may be about to elect a non-squish from New York has everything to do with the fact that he is running as a third-party independent, and not a Republican (even if the Conservative Party is an auxiliary of the Republicans in most elections).

Hoffman as a Republican would have been too obvious a target and the subject of a relentless barrage of negative TV, websites, mail, and phones branding him as outside the mainstream, anti-choice, anti-worker, etc. But politically, Hoffman has managed to avoid all that until five days out, when it's now clear he's the frontrunner. And as Chris Cillizza points out this morning, Hoffman's success in the polls is built on the back among strong support among independents and (primarily) not Republican regulars disgusted at Scozzafava.

This got me thinking: How many points is an Independent party label worth, assuming you're able to vie for Republican votes in a general election? 5? 10? We know that in races with a plausible third party, that candidate automatically tends to earn more independent and moderate support even if they are ideologically indistinguishable from a Republican (Hoffman) or a Democrat (Chris Daggett in New Jersey). [...] In a handful of races, perhaps in places where we can't win with the Republican label alone, it might be more useful for the general election to be a strong Independent versus a Democrat rather than a Republican versus a Democrat."

LEST WE FORGET: Lieberman Announces Formation Of A**hole Party

The Huffington Post's Andy Borowitz:

"WASHINGTON (The Borowitz Report) -- Connecticut Senator Joseph Lieberman has switched parties again, announcing today that he is forming a new political party called the Asshole Party.

'Across this great land of hours, there are many, many assholes who have been ignored by the two major parties,' Sen. Lieberman told reporters. 'The Asshole Party will speak for them.'

Sen. Lieberman added that 'for years, assholes in America have had no voice, and I want to be that whiny, nasal voice.'"

Posted by Ian Faerstein at October 30, 2009 12:30 PM