6/8: Yes, In-Deeds!

Bloggers are offering their last-minute thoughts and predictions about tomorrow's VA GOV Dem primary. The general consensus in the blogosphere (confirmed by the most recent PPP poll) is that state Sen. Creigh Deeds is in the driver's seat. However, some lefty bloggers contend that ex-DNC Chair Terry McAuliffe and ex-state delegate Brian Moran have stronger GOTV operations than Deeds, which could make the race closer than it appears. Jerome Armstrong (who serves as Moran's Netroots Consultant) writes: "I know both McAuliffe and Moran have much better field organizations than Deeds, by far -- it's not even close. Deeds has gotten all the breaks in the polls; now, does he have the votes? The turnout will tell."

One thing is clear: if McAuliffe prevails tomorrow, some liberal bloggers will be sorely disappointed.

What else is happening in the blogosphere?

• Several liberal bloggers (Hamsher, Klein) are urging their readers to contact their Representatives and tell them to vote against the supplemental appropriations bill for the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. Reps. Jim Moran (D-VA), Eric Massa (D-NY), and Jerry Nadler (D-NY) are among the Dem congressmen who have come out against the supplemental.
• Liberal bloggers (Dworkin, Yglesias, Aravosis) continue to demand that the health care reform bill include a public insurance option, while conservative bloggers remain opposed to the idea.
• Liberal bloggers (Benen, A.L., Cole, TBogg, Drum) are criticizing National Review blogger Ed Whelan for "outing" (i.e., revealing the identity of) a pseudonymous blogger who criticized him. Conservative bloggers are divided in their reactions: some (Adler, Morrissey, Riehl) think Whelan was wrong to do what he did, while others (Goldberg, Murray, Reynolds) think his action was justified. Meanwhile, Whelan has written two follow-up posts defending himself.

VA GOV: The Final Countdown

Liberal bloggers are offering their final thoughts on tomorrow's Dem primary election:

• Daily Kos' Markos Moulitsas: "Given the absentee totals, I'd put my money on the low end of the scale, which means GOTV will play an outsized role. McAuliffe has the money to pay for good field, and Moran has the NoVa political machine behind him (supposedly). Deeds always had the smallest staff, and laid a bunch of it off to have more money for the air war. He's hoping to ride the Washington Post endorsement to decent results in NoVa, while hoping strong turnout in the rest of the state carries him over. [...] The race is volatile, but the last round, from mid-week, had McAuliffe with Joementum, Moran increasing slightly, and Deeds skyrocketing."
• Armstrong: "I really am not too excited about the conservative Democrat Creigh Deeds. Deeds has really come out of nowhere, and is a blank slate to most voters. He's not very environmental, being in favor of offshore oil drilling and new coal plants, and he's backwards on gay marriage. That said, he's better by far than Terry McAuliffe and way better than [GOP nominee] Bob McDonnell. As PPP shows, he captured the huge anti-McAuliffe vote here in the state in their polling, which he owes to Moran for creating. Without Moran beating the shit out of McAuliffe, there is no Deeds surge in the polls, but that's 3-way primaries. It's not issue-based at all, with the poll finding liberal NoVA Democratic voters backing the conservative -- just a surge of electability vs McAuliffe. A 14-16% lead seems unbeatable, but remember that PPP is predicting a huge turnout too. I know both McAuliffe and Moran have much better field organizations than Deeds, by far -- its not even close. Deeds has gotten all the breaks in the polls; now, does he have the votes? The turnout will tell."

Daily Kos' Steve Singiser isn't ready to count Moran out: "[Moran] has locked down a huge number of NoVa endorsements, and the area includes the home base for his brother, Congressman Jim Moran. If there is any 'turnout machine' in some of the larger cities in the north, it will likely be a Moran machine. Watch turnout here, specifically, on Tuesday. If NoVa's share of the electorate is in the 20-29% range, that is exceptionally bad news for Moran (and, for what it's worth, great news for Creigh Deeds). If it is in the 30-39% range, watch out for Moran. If it approaches 2006 levels comparable to the rest of the state, Moran is going to be extremely difficult to catch."

Al Giordano hopes that McAuliffe loses: "I'm not sure which of these two scenarios would be worse for the future of the Democrats: Terry McAuliffe wins Tuesday's primary for governor, and Independent voters, horrified, begin an exodus from their fairly recent Democratic voting patterns to bring a resurgence of the GOP in the Old Dominion, or that McAuliffe could win on Tuesday and then somehow pull off a general election victory to become a daily embarrassment to the national Democratic Party from his mansion in McLean, just a golf ball's shot from Washington, DC. [...] Although it is my general sense that Moran is somewhat more liberal-progressive than Deeds, the overriding question here is which of them can best shovel the dirt onto McAuliffe's political grave, saving the Commonwealth, the Republic and the Party from his disgraced and corrupted pay-to-play method of politics. The polling trends suggest Deeds is better positioned, and frankly, even if Moran were my bestest dearest lifetime friend, if I were a Virginia voter, I would right now be looking to Deeds as the emerging anti-Terry."

Meanwhile, conservative blogger Matt Lewis passes along a rumor that GOPers may try to vote in tomorrow's Dem primary: "Already, I've heard from some Republicans who are planning to engage in 'Operation Chaos, Virginia.' One conservative I spoke to believes Brian Moran would be the weakest opponent (McAuliffe has tons of money and Deeds might actually pick off some conservative voters down-state) and, thus, will be voting for Moran. While some may question the ethics of this sort of strategic voting, the situation is ripe for the possibility that even a few hundred Republican votes might influence the 2009 gubernatorial election, which might, in turn, impact the 2010 mid-term elections ..."

THOUGHT OF THE DAY: Is Obama Trying To Overthrow Bibi?

The Atlantic's Jeffrey Goldberg:

"It seems to me that Obama is trying to force the collapse of [Israeli PM Benjamin] Netanyahu's government. I base this mostly on intuition. Of course, the Obama Administration would never claim to be interfering in the internal politics of another country, but it seems obvious that Netanyahu's narrow coalition won't survive sustained American pressure on the settlements question. Netanyahu is in a terrible spot: He must preserve, at all costs, Israel's strategic relationship with Washington; on the other hand, he has right-wing coalition partners who are myopically obsessed with the status of the Neve Manyak outposts. Something is bound to break, and when it does, the Netanyahu government collapses. Which doesn't mean that Netanyahu is out of power. It means that he then shares power with Tzipi Livni's centrist Kadima Party. If I were an American policymaker, that's the Israeli coalition I would hope for: Netanyahu-[Ehud] Barak-Livni, rather than Netanyahu-Barak-[Avigdor] Lieberman. You watch: It's coming."

LEST WE FORGET: Cranky Chuck

Here are three recent messages from Sen. Chuck Grassley's (R-IA) Twitter feed:

• My carbon footprint is abt 25per cent of Al Gore. I'm greener than Al Gore. Is that enuf?
• Pres Obama while u sightseeing in Paris u said 'time to delivr on healthcare' When you are a "hammer" u think evrything is NAIL I'm no NAIL
• Pres Obama you got nerve while u sightseeing in Paris to tell us"time to deliver" on health care. We still on skedul/even workinWKEND.

Wonkette's Sara K. Smith is unimpressed by Grassley's Twitter-ing:

"Jesus fucking christ. Remember back in 1780-something, when we had actual smart people writing our founding documents in beautiful longhand when they weren't inventing new kinds of ploughs and bifocals and shit? Now our nation's top legislators just type away like petulant teenage girls, with their thumbs, about how the president is so awful for spending the weekend in Paris. We are all stupider for having read this."