« 5/7: The Ridge Flirtation | Main | BLOGGER SPOTLIGHT: Mark Kleiman »

May 08, 2009

5/8: A Clear Path For Toomey?

Liberal bloggers are portraying ex-PA Gov. Tom Ridge's (R) decision to not run for Sen. Arlen Specter's (D) seat as a "massive recruiting failure" for the GOP. The netroots believe that Ridge's decision virtually ensures that the GOP nominee will be ex-Rep. Pat Toomey (R), whom they consider unelectable. For that reason, they're arguing that Ridge's decision increases the pressure on Specter to behave like a loyal Dem, since it now appears that any Dem could win the general election. Lefty bloggers continue to believe that Specter is beatable in a Dem primary, and they're urging Rep. Joe Sestak (D-07) to keep his options open.

Across the political spectrum, conservative bloggers weren't the least bit upset by Ridge's decision, as they preferred Toomey anyway. Unlike their lefty counterparts, righty bloggers believe that Toomey has "an excellent chance" to win Specter's Senate seat.

What else is happening in the blogosphere?

  • Conservative bloggers (Allahpundit, Malkin, Lane, Johnson, Hanson) are buzzing about the release of an intelligence memo indicating that Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) was briefed in Sept. '02 about the use of harsh interrogation tactics -- which "seem[s] to contradict her repeated statements that she was never told the techniques were actually being used." Some liberal bloggers (McCarter, Wheeler, Sargent) are denying that this memo proves that Pelosi was briefed on the CIA's use of waterboarding. Others (Ackerman, Marshall) are pushing for an independent "Truth Commission," regardless of what Pelosi knew or didn't know.
  • Liberal bloggers (Greenwald, Cole, Dayen, Goldstein) were not at all satisfied by Jeff Rosen's defense of his controversial New Republic article, "The Case Against [Sonia] Sotomayor."
  • Liberal bloggers (Clemons, Yglesias, Willis) are criticizing Pres. Obama following reports that the Army plans to fire an Arabic-speaking officer because he came out of the closet. Lefty bloggers want Obama to repeal the military's "Don't Ask, Don't Tell" policy.
  • Conservative bloggers (Malkin, Allahpundit, Lane) are criticizing Obama for claiming that his $17B in proposed budget cuts is "still considered a lot of money" outside of Washington.
Finally, please check back later today for our interview with The Reality-Based Community's Mark Kleiman.

PA SEN: A Tough Break For The GOP?

Liberal bloggers think Ridge's decision to not run for Senate is a huge blow to the GOP's hopes of winning Specter's Senate seat:

  • Daily Kos' Markos Moulitsas: "Another massive recruiting failure for the GOP. It's just as well. We've got polling we'll be releasing in the next couple of hours that showed Ridge losing to Pat Toomey in the Republican primary 41-33."
  • MyDD's Jonathan Singer: "Without Ridge in the race, it's difficult to see how the Republicans can win the Pennsylvania Senate in 2010, particularly with Toomey as their candidate. Tough break for the GOP, tough break."
Liberal bloggers think Ridge's decision will increase the pressure on Specter to behave like a loyal Dem, since his electability argument disappears if the GOP nominee is Toomey:

  • TPM's Josh Marshall: "[W]ith Ridge out, I have to assume that means Toomey's almost guaranteed the nomination. I'd heard talk about [Rep. Jim] Gerlach getting in. But I doubt it. And if it's Toomey, that means that any half way reasonable Democrat is a strong favorite. Which means the pressure going to remain on Arlen Specter to at least make some pretense of being a Democrat."
  • TPM's Brian Beutler: "[O]ne of the key arguments for nominating Specter is his name recognition and strength in a general election. With Ridge out of the race, the risk to Democrats of a potential Joe Sestak candidacy are greatly diminished, and that may make Sestak yet more likely to run."
  • Open Left's AdamGreen: "In the Pennsylvania Senate race, the Republicans are basically toast. Dems now face a choice: Do they want their nominee to be someone who in the last week opposed Employee Free Choice, opposed the Obama health care 'public option,' sided with bankers against homeowners, said [ex-MN Sen.] Norm Coleman should be seated, and declared he would not be a loyal Democrat? And if they want someone else, who?"

PA SEN II: It's Toomey Time

Conservative bloggers aren't exactly mourning Ridge's decision, as most of them preferred Toomey as the GOP nominee:

  • Michelle Malkin: "Tom Ridge, favorite of socially liberal establishment Republicans, has decided not to enter the race to replace Arlen Specter. [...] Reminder: The Toomey for Senate campaign donation site is here."
  • RedState's Dan McLaughlin: "Ridge might have been a good statewide candidate, but for reasons I explained on Tuesday, he would have been the wrong guy to run against Specter. Pat Toomey may still not have a walk to the nomination, but Ridge's departure gives him a fairly clear frontrunner status and a chance to settle once and for all whether a conservative can still win statewide in Pennsylvania as was the case when [ex-Sen.] Rick Santorum won in 1994 and 2000."
  • Hot Air's Ed Morrissey: "[S]ome point to Rick Santorum's loss to Robert Casey, Jr. in 2006 as evidence that a conservative can't win in the Keystone State. That's what prompted the GOP to start looking for primary challengers to Toomey rather than start building support for him in a general election. Now, they don't have anyone of sufficient stature to push into the primary. I think the GOP panic misses the mark. I like Rick Santorum, but he's a different kind of conservative. Santorum's social conservatism might not have played well in 2006, but he also faced some strong national headwinds in an election that was not kind to Republicans anywhere. [...] Toomey is most well-known for fiscal conservatism, almost to the exclusion of everything else. In 2010, that's going to play much more attractively than Santorum did in 2006. After two years of massive government spending, followed by a cap-and-trade effort that will crush Pennsylvania's coal, energy, and manufacturing sectors, voters will be looking for checks on Obama's policies. They won't get that from Specter, who won't be a trustworthy figure anyway, or Joe Sestak, who will be more or less Obama's rubber stamp. If Toomey focuses on nothing but economics and energy policy in the 2010 race, he has an excellent chance to capture the trust of Pennsylvanians looking for a change from all of Obama's change."
AmSpec Blog's Jeffrey Lord thinks Ridge had a lot of reasons for deciding not to run: "Conservative opposition was starting to suface, mentioned this morning in the Allentown Morning Call. The polls showed that while Toomey was behind Specter, it was by less than 10 points. A year out, that indicated a winnable race. Ridge is 63. There was already a fuss about his main residence being in Chevy Chase, Maryland -- a version of the story the Democrats used successfully against Rick Santorum in 2006 (Santorum has a home in Leesburg, Virginia.) All in all, making money (the lobbyist issue was lurking as well), having family responsibilities, there was a question of whether he had the fire to do this. For whatever reason -- the answer is no."

PA SEN III: Chinks In Arlen's Armor?

Liberal bloggers are pointing to the new Daily Kos/Research 2000 poll as evidence that Specter is more vulnerable to a primary challenge than many people think:

  • Moulitsas: "Specter has the big early lead, but only 37 percent of Democrats are definitely committed to Specter. And it gets worse for the incumbent fake Democrat: [...O]ver a quarter of Democrats will be less likely to vote for Specter if they learn that he voted against Obama's budget and continues on his current path of opposing EFCA and Obama's health care reform initiative. [...] If I'm Joe Sestak, I like what I see here. If I'm Arlen Specter, I start thinking about maybe acting the '(D)' part."
  • Open Left's David Sirota: "DailyKos's new Research 2000 poll shows that 63 percent of Pennsylvania Democratic primary voters either definitely will vote against Arlen Specter in the Democratic primary, will consider voting against him, or don't know how they will vote. Those are incredibly weak numbers for a sitting senator. [...] Of course, most of the political Establishment in Washington, D.C. is saying the opposite -- that Specter is basically unbeatable, even as major candidates like Rep. Joe Sestak (D-PA) and Joe Torsella are threatening a primary. As this poll shows, that pro-Specter wishful thinking is just that: wishful thinking."
In other Specter-related news, both liberal and conservative bloggers are criticizing his new website, www.SpecterForTheCure.com, which resembles the website of a charitable organization but is actually "owned by his reelection committee, and contributions made there go straight to Specter's 2010 reelection campaign."

THOUGHT OF THE DAY: A Gay Supreme Court Justice?

The New Republic's Richard Just:

"[N]ominating a lesbian to the court would put conservatives in a politically awkward position. As the gay rights battle has come to center more and more on the specific question of marriage, conservatives have frequently insisted that they are not anti-gay, just opposed to gays getting married. Conservatives are attached to this distinction because they know that, without it, they end up looking like bigots. But if they decide to make an issue of a Supreme Court nominee's sexual orientation, they would effectively be conceding that this distinction was a lie. (After all, could there be any more baldly anti-gay political maneuver than bashing a Supreme Court nominee because of her sexual orientation?) Given that most Americans are no longer comfortable with transparent homophobia (while conservatives still have the majority on same-sex marriage, liberals enjoy majorities on various other gay-rights questions, such as workplace discrimination), it would be a risky move for conservatives to toss aside their cherished distinction between anti-gay sentiment and anti-gay-marriage sentiment. So maybe they would think twice about raising sexual orientation during a confirmation battle. And if they decided to do it anyway, it could become one of those defining moments where the American political center gets a glimpse at the fundamental ugliness undergirding a particular crusade -- and turns decisively in the other direction."

LEST WE FORGET: Foie Gras, Scallops Snuck Into Opera House

From The Onion:

"PARIS -- Citing 'outrageous' snack prices at the legendary Palais Garnier opera house, local resident Philippe Michaud discreetly smuggled a terrine of fois gras and half a pound of sautéed scallops into Monday evening's production of Strauss's Der Rosenkavalier. 'That's how operas make all their money, by jacking up concessions prices,' Michaud said. 'Why should I shell out €175 for hors d'oeuvres at the concessions booth when I can just sneak some in underneath my cummerbund?' Sources said that Michaud also brought along a concealed bottle of 1986 Krug Clos du Mesnil, which he surreptitiously uncorked during the loudest point of Princess von Werdenberg's aria at the end of Act I."

Posted by Ian Faerstein at May 8, 2009 12:30 PM



Copyright 2007 by National Journal Group Inc.
The Watergate · 600 New Hampshire Ave., NW
Washington, DC 20037
202-739-8400 · fax 202-833-8069
NationalJournal.com is an Atlantic Media publication.