4/29: Party-Hopping

If you thought the netroots would rejoice over PA Sen. Arlen Specter's decision to join the Dem party, then you don't know the netroots. To be sure, liberal bloggers love the "political optics" of Specter's switch -- especially his statement alleging that the GOP "has moved far to the right." However, lefty bloggers have significant concerns about the substantive implications of Specter's decision. Many of them were hoping that PA voters would replace Specter with a Dem in 2010, since Specter was likely to lose in the GOP primary to ex-Rep. Pat Toomey (R), whom the netroots consider a weak general election candidate. However, now that Dem leaders have reportedly promised to support Specter in the Dem primary, the netroots are frustrated to find themselves stuck with "a flip-floppety opportunist" whose voting record is "worse than [that of] any other Democrat in the entire Senate". Some lefty bloggers are already talking up potential primary challenges from businessman Joe Torsella (D) and Rep. Joe Sestak (D-PA).

While some conservative bloggers were dismayed by Specter's announcement, the overwhelming reaction was "good riddance". Ed Morrissey sums up the attitude of most righty bloggers when he writes: "[Specter]'s not a fiscal stalwart, a social conservative, or a conservative on judges, and disloyal to boot. What exactly did we lose here?" Many conservative bloggers responded to Specter's announcement by rallying behind Toomey, who they think has a decent chance of beating Specter in a general election.

What else is happening in the blogosphere?

• Liberal bloggers (McCarter, Llorens) are pleased that Sen. Richard Lugar (R-IN) became the first GOP senator to support Pres. Obama's nominee for OLC chief, IU law prof Dawn Johnsen.
• Liberal bloggers (Greenwald, McCarter, Dayen, bmaz) are pleased that the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals rejected the Obama admin.'s claim that a detainee abuse lawsuit should be dismissed because it would force the government to disclose "state secrets."

SPECTER: Wait -- How Is This A Good Thing?

Liberal bloggers aren't exactly rejoicing over Specter's party switch:

• Atrios: "I hope this works out better than I expect, but 60 nominal Ds doesn't equal 60 votes. Specter's still free to be a dick in the Senate, and I expect the state Dem party to welcome him with open arms and push all challengers away from the primary."
• Firedoglake's Eli: "[We've lost] an excellent chance to put an actual Democrat in that seat. [...] So can anyone tell me what the Democrats gain by adding a feckless wanker like Specter to their team? What will become legislatively possible that wasn't possible before? Because to me it looks like the Democrats just richly rewarded D-Arlen for doing nothing more than saving his own ass, and asked for nothing in return. I haven't seen a move this clueless and lame since, well, a few months ago."
• Open Left's Chris Bowers: "Pop quiz! What Democratic Senator did all of the following...(1.) Flipped his vote on the Employee Free Choice Act this year? (2.) Voted against President Obama's budget? (3.) Compiled a voting record far worse than Ben Nelson or [CT Sen.] Joe Lieberman? (4.) Represents a state that President Obama won by more than 10%, and that has a Democratic voting registration advantage of more than 10%? If you answered Arlen Specter, then you would be correct. Unless Arlen Specter's flip to the Democratic Party includes a flip in his votes on meaningful legislation, then his change doesn't help progressives at all. He is joining our party purely for personal political survival. And, as Markos notes, Specter's flip is arguably a net negative, as it hurts our chances of getting a better Democrat in the seat."
• Salon's Glenn Greenwald: "Democrats will understandably celebrate today's announcement, but beyond the questions of raw political power, it is mystifying why they would want to build their majority by embracing politicians who reject most of their ostensible views. Reports today suggest that Democratic officials promised Specter that the party establishment would support him, rather than a real Democrat, in a primary. If true, few events more vividly illustrate the complete lack of core beliefs of Democratic leaders, as well as the rapidly diminishing differences between the parties. Why would Democrats want a full-blooded Republican representing them in the blue state of Pennsylvania? Specter is highly likely to reprise the Joe Lieberman role for Democrats: a 'Democrat' who leads the way in criticizing and blocking Democratic initiatives, forcing the party still further towards Republican policies."
• FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver: "[T]his is not necessarily an unmitigated win for the Democrats. Unlike [ex-VT Sen.] Jim Jeffords' switch in 2001, this does not affect who controls the Senate Chamber. Rather, it merely effects the filibuster math, which has always been somewhat fuzzy. While the Democrats will have a nominal total of 60 votes once Al Franken is seated, the Senate's fortunes will still be determined by a group of about a dozen moderate senators from both parties (including Specter), just as it was before. [...] The real question is -- how often will Specter's vote change as a result of this? [...] If he goes from voting with the Democrats 40 percent of the time to 60 percent of the time, that is not so terrific for them, particularly if the 60th seat raises expectations and lends credence to Republican claims about the need for divided government."

A few liberal bloggers think that Specter is going to become a reliable Dem vote, but this is clearly a minority view among the netroots.

SPECTER II: We Want A Primary!

Many liberal bloggers still want someone to challenge Specter in the 2010 PA Dem primary, even though Dem leaders have reportedly promised Specter that they won't back another Dem candidate:

• Bowers: "It turns out that Specter has been promised no primary opponent for switching parties. [...] Apart from the image of total Republican fail, [his party switch] isn't a good thing at all. Not only do we have to deal with Specter's voting record, which is worse than any other Democrat in the entire Senate, but we are denied the opportunity to even challenge him. I like sticking it to Republicans. But I am also pretty pissed right now. We need to run a primary challenge against Specter anyway, leadership be damned."
• Firedoglake's Jane Hamsher: "The Democrats seem to be unaware that there is a game on at all. They are saying that they won't field a candidate to challenge Arlen. Well, that's smart. Just let him control everything that happens in the Senate like he does now, and watch him move to the right as he continues to compete with Pat Toomey for the conservative vote. Hey, guess what? Primaries work. . . especially when the candidate has nowhere to go. Specter can't go back to the GOP, so the best way to move him into the 'D' camp is to run a primary challenger against him. Make him compete for the hearts of Pennsylvania Democrats before he gets to Toomey, because they may want to see an actual Democrat take the seat."
• Silver: "[Toomey] will be an underdog against any sentient Democrat. Why should the Democrats settle for a Lieberdem when they can Pennsylvanians to elect a mainline Democrat along the lines of [Sen.] Bob Casey?"
• BooMan: "[J]ust because I welcome him into the party doesn't mean that I don't want a better Democrat representing me in the Senate. Is that unreasonable? Just give me the chance to vote for another viable candidate. That's all I ask. If Specter wins I will respect that just as I begrudgingly respected Casey's win in the primary in 2006."
• MyDD's Todd Beeton: "We need a strong Pennsylvania Democrat to challenge Specter in the primary so he is motivated to be halfway decent as a sitting Senator in the meantime. And I need someone to give my money to because Specter won't be getting any."
• digby: "I hate it when the poohbahs arrogantly foreclose the primary process, especially when there's little chance of a Republican victory. I really hate it when it's done behind closed doors to shut out liberals. If an actual Democrat out there wants to give it a try I think they deserve some support."
• Daily Kos' Markos Moulitsas: "Specter switched because of political expediency, and given his refusal to switch on EFCA, it means that Democrats will still be motivated to take him out in a primary. But as we've seen, Specter has no convictions he won't betray in his naked efforts to remain in power. If Pennsylvania labor was smart, they'd get a real Democrat to say he was going to primary Specter. It's likely Specter expects Gov. Ed Rendell to clear the field for him. But given a serious primary challenger (or even the threat of one), there's little reason Specter wouldn't flip right back on EFCA."
• Open Left's David Sirota: "The idea of Specter running in a Democratic primary is really crazy -- and I'm hopeful it will be a contested primary. State/local Democrats shouldn't simply defer to this guy, who Pennsylvania's rank-and-file Democratic voters/activists have been trying to dislodge for years (and rightly so)."
• The Reality-Based Community's Mark Kleiman: "In [Senate Maj. Leader Harry] Reid's shoes, I wouldn't be inclined to deal. The best way to get Arlen's vote is to make him compete in a Democratic primary. He might well be beaten, giving us an actual Democrat rather than another Ben Nelson or [AR Sen.] Blanche Lincoln. There's simply no reason to have a Senator from Pennsylvania who votes against workers' rights. If Specter were beaten, I can't see the victor then losing to the Club for Growth guy in November."

After analyzing the candidacy of Torsella and the potential candidacy of Sestak, Bowers concludes that Dems should wait until "mid-June" before deciding on a primary challenger: "Specter will have a honeymoon with Democrats over the next two or three weeks, but if he keeps opposing most of President Obama's agenda, he should expect a wave of media coverage that will anger many Pennsylvania Democrats, and make a primary challenge against him quickly viable. As such, it is important that Representative Joe Sestak publicly stay open to a possible run for at least another two months."

Meanwhile, another lefty blogger has started a Facebook group entitled, "I support a real progressive against Arlen Specter."

SPECTER III: This Ain't Your Father's Republican Party

While liberal bloggers don't like Specter, they love the symbolism of his decision to switch parties -- especially his statement alleging that the GOP "has moved far to the right":

• Moulitsas: "We've been systematically making the case since the election that the GOP is now a regional southern party. And what better way to strike home that point than to see a moderate northeastern Republican switch parties, complaining about his party's swing to the far right? And it's a trend that if fully played out, could net us one or two additional seats in Maine, where Sen. Olympia Snowe could be a legitimate Democrat."
• AMERICAblog's Joe Sudbay: "The political optics just couldn't be better. The DC pundits and talking heads love Arlen Specter (kinda the way they love Lieberman.) That crowd believes the hype that Specter is a moderate -- and compared to the rest of the GOP, Specter is definitely more moderate. So, we'll hear endless chatter about how the GOP has become a shrinking party. That means the talking heads will finally get something right."
• The Washington Monthly's Steve Benen: "For three months, the conservative message has been that President Obama, his widespread popularity notwithstanding, is some kind of radical ideologue, far from the American mainstream. Specter's departure from the GOP sends the exact opposite message. Moderate Republicans are teaming up with Obama, and leaving the party that has 'moved far to the right' behind."
• The New Republic's John Cohn: "Specter is one of the better-known senators in America. If you follow politics even casually, you've seen or heard him on the news before. So it's going to register with you that a major Republican senator has decided his party has become too extreme for him. And if you're a Republican, you might wonder if it's become too extreme for you, as well."

Liberal bloggers are also making fun of Sen. Jim DeMint's (R-SC) response to Specter's announcement, in which he said, "I would rather have 30 Republicans in the Senate who really believe in principles of limited government, free markets, free people, than to have 60 that don't have a set of beliefs." Interestingly, several righty bloggers are also criticizing DeMint's statement.

SPECTER IV: Good Riddance

Most conservative bloggers are pleased to be rid of Specter:

• Michelle Malkin: "Arlen Specter, we have just 10 words for you: Don't let the door hit you on the way out."
• Gateway Pundit: "Good-bye. One less RINO."
• Hot Air's Morrissey: "[Specter]'s not a fiscal stalwart, a social conservative, or a conservative on judges, and disloyal to boot. What exactly did we lose here?"
• The Next Right's Conn Carroll: "Good riddance. Specter voted for every ounce of terrible new spending under [George W.] Bush and he has been an equally worthless speed bump to Obama's spend-a-thon. The contrast between the geriatric Washington big government/big business/big labor Specter and Pat Toomey couldn't be greater. This is great news for the GOP's 2010 chances."
• Robert Stacy McCain: "Good-bye and good riddance. [...] One less member of the Senate Republican 'Jellyfish Caucus.' Specter reminds me of the high-school slut trying to sleep her way to popularity -- a weak reed, blown by the shifting winds. The fact that the national GOP apparatus lined up behind this venomous crapweasel in 2004 is all you need to know about what a worthless waste of time the national GOP apparatus was during the Bush/[Ken] Mehlman era."
• RedState's Erick Erickson: "Exactly what good does it do for the Republican Party, which has a serious credibility problem right now with voters over losing its way, to keep in positions of power those people who caused us to lose our way? As much as someone like [AZ Sen.] John McCain is an annoyance, Arlen Specter has actively worked to undermine not conservatives, but Republicans, on a host of issues from judges to spending."

NRO's Mark Hemingway quips: "I read that [Specter] was switching parties, but I was disappointed to learn he's still a Democrat."

SPECTER V: I've Got A Bad Feeling About This...

Other conservative bloggers had a more negative reaction to Specter's announcement:

• NRO's Andrew Stuttaford: "You don't have to be a particular fan of Specter (I'm not) to think that today's news is bad, to say the least, and, yes, the position in which Specter now finds himself must mean that he shifts (further?) left, taking, in a very real sense, the country with him. Disastrous."
• The Weekly Standard's Mary Katharine Ham: "Filibuster-proof majority, here we come. As if we didn't pass enough the first 100 days."
• AmSpec Blog's Philip Klein: "This is a huge blow for Republicans hoping to stop Obama's agenda in the Senate. Specter had been moving to the right on issues such as card check because he was concerned about the challenge from Toomey, but if he's facing a tough battle against a liberal opponent in the Democratic primary, the opposite dynamic comes into play and he's likely to move even further to the left. The only way he'll get the Democratic nod is if he reliably votes with the administration."
• Power Line's Paul Mirengoff: "In the short-term (i.e., until 2011 when a different liberal would likely have taken the seat) this looks like a coup for the Democrats."
• NRO's Ramesh Ponnuru: "The NRCC: 'Good Riddance' to Specter. That's what the GOP House campaign committee is saying in its press release. I guess it will be truly happy when Snowe and [ME Sen. Susan] Collins leave too."

TOOMEY: Go, Pat, Go!

Many conservative bloggers reacted to Specter's announcement by rallying behind Toomey and talking up his chances of winning the general election:

• Erickson: "I just gave money to Pat Toomey. Why don't you do the same?"
• Townhall's Hugh Hewitt: "[I]t is very easy for me to throw in quickly for Pat Toomey, and to note as well that Arlen Specter is the best general election candidate for Toomey to draw. Senator Specter supported the non-stimulus bill and the bailouts that may not play all that well in Pittsburgh. The Dems have agreed to clear a path for Senator Specter to run as a 'D,' and though that might make sense to a lot of Democrats, some are going to sit on their hands, some are going to resent the issue of switiching for personal convenience, and still more are going to wonder about the trust factor given the senator's emphatic declaration -- which will be played a few hundred times between now and November 2010 -- that he was staying put."
• NRO's David Freddoso: "Toomey's smarts and understanding of policy, and his ability to avoid unhinged rhetoric helped him hold down a Congressional District that went solidly for Al Gore in 2000 and for John Kerry in 2004. Provided that Specter manages to get the nomination, a Toomey (R) versus Specter (D) general election in a low-turnout midterm could be good for the GOP. What Republican wouldn't want to pit skeptical Democratic voters for Specter against extremely motivated Republicans, out for revenge and wishing they'd been there for Toomey in 2004?"

Toomey wrote a diary on RedState in which he reassured righty bloggers that his campaign will go on: "For our campaign, not much changes. Instead of having Arlen Specter as an opponent in the Republican primary, we will face him in the general election, that is, assuming Pennsylvania Democrats decide they can trust him enough to give him their nomination. Whichever the case, our message remains the same."

Meanwhile, righty bloggers (Erickson, Lopez, Geraghty) are not happy about rumors that ex-PA Gov./HHS Sec. Tom Ridge (R) is thinking about challenging Toomey for the GOP nod.

THOUGHT OF THE DAY: Unprincipled Hack (D-PA)

The New Republic's Jonathan Chait:

"When a politician switches parties, it's customary for the party he's abandoned to denounce him as an unprincipled hack, and the party he's joined to praise him as a brave convert who's genuinely seen the light. But I think it's pretty clear that Specter is an unprincipled hack. If his best odds of keeping his Senate seat lay in joining the Communist party, he'd probably do that.

To be sure, Specter is a real moderate on some issues, but his contortions are so comical that no principled read on his actions is very plausible. Specter favored the Employee Free Choice Act favored by labor, turned against it when he faced a primary challenge, and then abandoned his party altogether when it became clear he couldn't win his primary. In the meantime, he came out in favor of a Hooverite spending freeze after backing the stimulus bill."

LEST WE FORGET: You Had A Bad Day...

From FMyLife.com:

• Today, I was taking the bus home from work. As I was getting off an old man whistled at me; I told him to go to hell and got off the bus. When the bus drove away the old man stood in the back of the bus, holding up the wallet I left that he was trying to give to me. FML.
• Today, I was walking up to girlfriend's house when her terrifying Marine Corps dad threw a football at me. Not being very athletic, I surprised myself by catching it. He gestured for me throw it back and I watched it spiral wildy to the left and hit my girlfriend's mom in the face. FML.
• Today, my father asked me if he could borrow my electric razor because he wanted to "surprise mom later". Anxious to see him without his life-long beard, I willingly agreed. About half an hour later he exited the bathroom. Beard fully intact. FML.
• Today, I was having lunch with my sister and my mother. While my mom was busy ordering food, my sister said to me, "look at this face I can make!" and she grossly contorted her face so that she had a double chin. My mother looked over and said to her, "stop making fun of your sister!" FML.
• Today, my rescue squad unit responded to a 911 call from a woman who felt she was going to pass out. We knocked on her locked door a couple times with no answer. Fearing she might be unconscious, I kicked in the door. She was about to open it and only passed out from the concussion I gave her. FML.