August 14, 2008

8/14: How Many Electoral Votes Does Georgia Have?

For nearly a week now, John McCain has seized up the coincidental timing of Georgia's conflict with Russia and Barack Obama's vacation in HI. By gushing support for Georgia Pres. Mikheil Saakashvili and racheting up his rhetoric against Russia, McCain is betting that the spotlight will convince voters he's an experienced leader who can handle international crises (and that Obama, by comparison, cannot). But McCain is also running the risk of overreaching, particularly with his annoucement 8/13 that he's dispatching two of his top surrogates, Sens. Joe Lieberman (D-CT) and Lindsey Graham (R-SC), on a fact-finding mission to Georgia. As the week winds down, will voters see McCain as a take-charge executive, or a posturing war monger? Will Obama be seen as disconnected amateur, or a candidate appropriately deferring to the Bush administration to handle the crisis?

MCCAIN: Pot, Meet McCain

In his latest denoucement of Russian aggression, McCain on 8/13 told reporters:

"In the 21st century, nations don't invade other nations."

Liberal bloggers immediately pounced on the gaffe:

• MoJoBlog's Jonathan Stein: "I don't even have to say it. Easiest blog post ever."
• The Impolitic: "Meanwhile, anyone know about McCain's drinking habits, because it's hard to believe he said this while he was stone cold sober. ... The irony of that statement surely won't be lost to any but the most deluded observers."
• Shakesville's Chet Scoville: "The inanity of McCain's statement speaks for itself...."
• Huffington Post's Sam Stein: "It was the type of foreign policy rhetorical blunder that has regularly plagued the McCain campaign and could have diplomatic ripples as well. Certainly the comment was meant in innocence. But for those predisposed to the notion that the U.S. is an increasingly arrogant international actor, the suggestion by a presidential candidate that, in this day and age, countries don't invade one another -- when the U.S. is occupying two foreign nations -- does little to alleviate that negative perception."
• D-Day: "You hear that, George Bush? McCain's coming for you! Nations don't inv- what, he supported the surge? Hey, every rule has its exception, right?"
• Daily Kos's smintheus: "To his increasing embarrassment, ... [while trying] to justify his foreign 'policy' adventurism to reporters, John McCain made a rather startling pronouncement. As so often, McCain was taking his cue from his other inept ally, George Bush. ... So does that pronouncement disqualify McCain for the presidency? Or just disqualify him to speak about his own 'policy' toward Iraq?"

Conservative bloggers shrugged off McCain's gaffe as miscommunication. Political Machine's Dave: "Of course, the lefties have jumped all over this. Perhaps what McCain meant to say was that nations don't invade other nations, unless in response to an invasion of a third country and then after thirteen years of broken promises, a nation may invade another nation under the auspices of several standing UN resolutions. But that probably would have taken too long to say."

More broadly, the gaffe highlighted the week-long debate in the blogosphere over whether the U.S. invasion of Iraq is analagous to the Russian invasion of central Georgia. The following excerpt by The Atlantic's Andrew Sullivan gives a good taste of that ongoing debate: Peter Wehner huffs and puffs over my comparing Russia invading Georgia with the US invading Iraq. Reihan offers a semi-defense while still critiquing my position on Iraq. (Good point on Kosovo, though, and one the Russians are very keenly aware of). And Dean Barnett wants to know where my outrage is. Yep, as my readers have pointed out, I was a little too mad at Bush to express adequate sympathy for the plight of the Georgians at first. I tried to rectify that as graphically as I could. What Putin is doing is repulsive to civilized norms, and longtime readers of this blog will know I have no great love for Putin (unlike Bush, one might add). ... We can argue over the analogies. Yes, Iraq was a wicked dictatorship, and Georgia is a nascent democracy. Yes, the US is not Russia in terms of democratic norms. But actions and context are important. Iraq is thousands of miles away from the US; Georgia is on Russia's doorstep. The US invaded without the critical second UN resolution, putting the US outside the kind of international legitimacy in a way not totally unlike Russia. There is no American population in Iraq; there is a sizable Russian population in Georgia. Russia is recovering from one of the most precipitous declines in power in world history; the US stood athwart the globe in 2003 with no serious competitors. The Russian intervention has not toppled the Georgian government and has been halted after a few days. The American intervention in Iraq is now in its fifth year, with the administration doing all it can to stay longer."

MCCAIN II: Maverick Sends Wingmen To Check Out The Bogeys

Talking Points Memo's Greg Sargent: "At a press conference just now, John McCain redoubled his efforts to thrust himself into a leadership role on the Russia-Georgia crisis front, announcing that two top campaign surrogates, Joe Lieberman and Lindsey Graham, are going on a visit to Georgia. McCain said:

"The situation in Georgia remains fluid and dangerous. As soon as possible my colleagues senators Lieberman and Graham will be traveling to Georgia. They're both members of the Senate Armed Services Committee. I hope that other members of the Armed Services Committee in the Senate will go together."

"Lieberman and Graham, of course, are key campaign allies of McCain. The Arizona Senator has been using Obama's absence on vacation to associate himself more directly with the Russia-Georgia war in the mind of the public. ... McCain's announcement of his key campaign allies' trip abroad also seems designed to shoulder Bush aside as the primary GOP leadership figure here."

Politico's Jonathan Martin: "I think Greg Sargent is on to something.... Yes, they're both members of the Armed Services Committee. But McCain's declaration has something of a shadow government feel to it, as though he's sending his own emissaries into the war zone."

In addition to charges of political opportunism, and the potential risks to foreign relations that McCain's rhetoric could be having (particularly if it clashes with the current administration), liberal bloggers denounced what they see as a blatant double-standard: Obama was accused of presidential "presumptuousness" during his publicized world tour, while McCain's actions toward Georgia and Russia are portrayed as statesmanlike.

• Reality-Based Community's Mark Kleiman: "And is this really a good time for McCain to be sending his own delegation to Tbilisi? Isn't that a trifle presumptuous? What happened to 'one President at a time'?"
• American Prospect's Adam Serwer: "It seems that McCain thinks he's already President of the United States and is sending his own 'delegation' to Georgia consisting of Senator Lindsey Graham and Senator Joe Lieberman. (Why not Saxby Chambliss and Johnny Isakson? They are after all, the only Senators who could say "We are all Georgians now" and mean it literally.) No doubt this will produce a flood of reports noting how cocky and presumptuous it is for McCain to be acting as though he is already President and should be formulating policy in response to the situation there. These reports will be almost as numerous as the stories noting that McCain does not have the authority to conduct negotiations on behalf of the United States, and that doing so deeply undermines the President's authority to conduct said negotiations since foreign governments can't be sure about where they actually stand with our own. These will be followed by hysterical condemnations by Right Wingers about McCain overstepping his authority, much the same way as they did last year when they accused Nancy Pelosi of 'conducting independent negotiations with foreign governments' on her trip to the Middle East when she simply reiterated U.S. Policy everywhere she went."
• Carpetbagger Report's Steve Benen: "Try to imagine the response if Obama dispatched two of his top campaign surrogates to Georgia to review conditions on the ground. There would be apoplexy — how dare a presumptive nominee act like he's already president. But that is effectively what we're seeing here. McCain is on the phone with Saakashvili on a daily basis — occasionally multiple times throughout the day — having international discussions of an unknown nature."
Hamsher: "I realize it's a delicate situation, but other than moving Evan Bayh to the top of the VP list in response (and potentially handing a Senate seat to the Republicans), where's Obama?"

But many conservative bloggers think the fact-finding mission is just the latest part of an appropriate, savvy strategy against Obama. Wake Up America's Susan Duclos: "This is a very smart move by John McCain politically because from the second news came out about Russia attacking Georgia, he has been in front of the situation, leading the way on statements. He called it right while Obama equated the victim with the aggressor by calling for restraint from Georgia and Russia, then Obama had to modify his position to sound more like McCain did the first time around. McCain led Bush even by coming out with just the right statements, each day, staying in contact with Saakashvili each day and keeping on top of the information and situation. McCain has shown leadership while Obama has been on vacation. Now the timing of Russia's actions cannot be laid at Obama's feet, it was coincidental that Russia chose that moment to attack, but it certainly hasn't done Obama any good in the eyes of the public to have John McCain leading the way, very presidentially."

However, some had reservations. HotAir's Allahpundit: "A sour note in an otherwise strong statement proposing harsh consequences for Russia's aggression, from booting them out of the G8 to rejecting their membership in the WTO to sending peacekeepers to their new Sudetenland in Ossetia and Abkhazia. He's careful to say that Liebs and Graham will be going in their capacity as senators and members of the Armed Services Committee (and invites other members to go with them), but given the context and the fact that they're his two most ardent supporters, it comes off like he's dispatching them as envoys. Questions that pop to mind: Do Committee members really need to conduct their own fact-finding missions in the middle of a hot war? State and Defense briefings could probably get them up to speed. And what would the reaction have been if The One had made this move first with Bayh and Webb in the surrogate roles? Would have seemed to me like a transparent attempt to squeeze a photo op from a crisis that the administration's already straining to manage without needing any extra distractions. Well, here you go."

Finally, conservative Sullivan sees the "envoy" as just the latest example of a worrying trend: "He's despatching Lindsey and Joe as emissaries to the country immediately. He's on the phone with Sakashvilli daily. He's giving press conferences. He's warning of a new Tsarist empire. You can tell what sends him into high-energy zones: a clear enemy abroad. He knows black and white; and he knows war. It gives him clarity and strength. Up next: Iran and China. Oh, the conflicts we can have ... If this is the dynamic you want to see in the next president, McCain is your man."

MCCAIN III: The Conflict's Conflict Of Interest?

McCain's escalating rhetoric against Russia and his continued support of Georgia has fueled liberal suspicions that the McCain camp is too personally and professionally involved with the Georgian government.

• BAGnewsNotes: "The McCain campaign's neocon grandstanding and effective U.S. foreign policy takeover is being driven by McCain's combined foreign policy adviser and lobbyist for Georgian president Saakashvili, Randy Scheunemann (check bio). In yesterday's photo aboard McCain's plane, we see Scheunemann and Lieberman jawboning with McCain, seated behind. Obviously, the major prop here is the map of Georgia. As much as McCain accuses Russia of having grand designs, what the map most calls into relief -- with Obama on vacation, Graham and Lieberman packing for Georgia, and Scheunemann dangling the paper in the aisle for the cameras -- is how McCain is milking the crisis for all it's worth."
• DownWithTyranny: "It's hard to believe-- well, not too hard -- that foreign governments hire top McCain staffers and part of the deal is that McCain beats the war drums for them. Is this even legal?"
• D-Day: "[Scheunemann] is a registered lobbyist for a foreign agent embroiled in a conflict with the Russians. McCain has rushed to Georgia's side, telling the country that 'we are all Georgians.' His top foreign policy advisor is being paid by them. Can you say 'conflict of interest'? Scheunemann is a C-level neocon, and Georgia is a C-level neocon entity, but the fact that this war has burst to the surface not only gives the appearance of impropriety, it damages our foreign policy. You can't tell me that this isn't very harmful. ... So McCain's freelancing is putting pressure on the Bush Administration to act - by attacking the Russians or something just as foolhardy. And there's a foreign lobbyist right in the middle of all this. Scheunemann should clearly be fired. ... It's bigger than Scheunemann. It's about the culture of Washington that permits this gross conflict of interest. Think Progress has more on how Scheunemann likely orchestrated McCain's nomination of Saakashvili for the Nobel Prize, for his own financial gain. This is unbelievable."

Moreover, many liberal bloggers suspect a broader conspiracy involving GOP strategist Karl Rove and Sec/State Condoleezza Rice, both of whom held meetings with the Georgian government last month.

• emptywheel: "The White House has started to panic over a July 9 meeting between Condi Rice and Mikheil Saakashvili, desperate to suggest they didn't encourage Georgia's crack-down in South Ossetia. Given that panic, I wonder whether Karl Rove had any similar chats with Saakashvili when they were in Yalta together just days later? Now, there's been a lot of justified chatter about the role of Randy Scheunemann, who appears to be advising the Republic of Georgia at the same time as he provides campaign advice to John McCain. ... There's something going on--and given Karl Rove's presence close to the scene of the crime, I've got my suspicions."
• Hamsher: "The Bushies insist they knew nothing about what the Georgians were planning, Condi Rice phoned it in despite the fact that she's a Russia specialist who met with Saakashvilli on July 9, and Karl Rove was suspiciously in the area with Saakishvilli shortly thereafter. Throw in McCain's lobbyist ties to Georgia and you've got quite a constellation of events that just happened to play to McCain's perceived strengths."

POWELL: The Swing Vote Of 2008?

On 8/13, GOP pundit Bill Kristol announced on FOX News:

"This is not an absolute done deal, but these people are very confident that [Colin] Powell will endorse Obama. ... He may well give a speech at the Democratic convention explaining his endorsement of Obama."

But Powell immediately denied the report:

"I do not have time to waste on Bill Kristol's musings. ... I am not going to the convention. I have made this clear."

However, by ending the conversation before reporters could ask whether he would endorse Obama, Powell threw open the door of speculation.

Moderate Voice's Joe Gandelman: "Once again Colin Powell ... is in the spotlight and continuing his role as one of the most respected and also discounted political rock stars in the nation. Republicans love him when he is toeing the party line. Democrats love him when he seems to be bucking the party and administration line. Republicans discount his importance when he doesn't hold the party line. Democrats say he was a lousy Secretary of State when he isn't breaking with the party line. ... Both candidates clearly want Powell's endorsement, even though supporters of each candidate will diss Powell if they think he's leaning towards the other one. To McCain, a Powell endorsement would signal to crucial independent swing voters that he indeed is still the 'maverick' who isn't a cookie-cutter establishment Republican. ... Most important, it would also signal that military man Powell would feel and perhaps sleep better with military man McCain at the Oval Office helm. To Obama, a Powell endorsement would be a huge 'get.' ... It would signal to independent voters that Obama is truly someone who can reach across the aisle and is not the stereotypical Democrat. It would also signal that military man Powell would feel comfortable with non-military man Obama at the Oval Office helm. It would also be interpreted by some as Powell giving a finger in the eye to the Bush administration for the way he was treated and the damage serving it did to his reputation in some circles. In fact, if Powell endorses Obama, GOPers will likely suggest it's because he is the equivalent of a disgruntled administration employee.... Prediction: It's unlikely Powell will sit this one out — if only because both sides will be clamoring and pressuring through their associates to get Powell to endorse them and he'll be under pressure not to do something that will favor one side...until he endorses. And then he'll be the target of demeaning comments from the side of whatever candidate he didn't endorse — the same folks who are clamoring for his endorsement now."

• National Review's Jim Geraghty: "If accurate, this is huge and great news for Obama. Powell even contributed to McCain at the beginning of the race. ... If I believed in truly devious motives, I would speculate that someone leaked this in order to scuttle whatever discussions were going on between the Obama camp and Powell."
• Donklephant's Justin Gardner: "Honestly, I think it could swing a significant number of Independents to either candidate's favor. After all, Powell is one of the more popular moderate political figures we've encountered in the past couple decades, even with that infamous speech at the U.N. looming in the background. My guess? I think he would have come out for McCain a lot earlier if he was going to support John, so I think he's leaning heavily towards Obama because he shares a similar approach to foreign policy with the Illinois senator. That doesn't mean he'll explicitly endorse Obama, but Powell's silence would be telling in a year like this...especially consider he has been a lifelong Republican…albeit a moderate one."
• Hot Air's Allahpundit: "Is there any political figure in America whose endorsement would mean more to Barry O? Impeccable military credentials, 'reformed' Bush cabinet member, harbinger of the very sort of post-racial crossover appeal The One is desperately seeking, and a spectacular counter to Lieberman's own imminent Zell Miller-ish turn at the Republican convention."
• The Atlantic's Marc Ambinder: "It's true that the Obama campaign is trying to line up some high-profile Republicans, but I do not think Powell will be one of them."
• Sullivan: "I wouldn't be so sure about the Powell endorsement rumors. I'm with Ambers on this. It's too ballsy a move for Powell. I'm also inherently suspicious of Kristol's motives. If Powell were considering such an endorsement, Kristol would do all he can to derail it. Prematurely leaking it, creating a fire-storm and forcing Powell to deny is one way to pre-empt such a move. It's vital for the neocons to prevent Obama gaining traction with serious foreign policy machers. But it makes sense in one obvious way: Powell understands how deep a hole the US is in internationally, and how only Obama truly has a chance to get the country back on its feet. It's the impulse of a patriot. And maybe the smears have made him mad."
• Townhall's Matt Lewis: "This is in some ways interesting, and in some ways to be expected. It is interesting because you might have assumed that Powell, a military guy and a Republican who also happens to be a political donor to McCain -- might stick with him. So why do this? You can certainly understand why Powell would be tempted to support the first African-American candidate with a legitimate shot at the presidency. But aside from race, I think there is another similarity between Powell and Obama; the less you know about their political views, the more you like them. Frankly, had he wanted to, Powell could have probably been elected president as a Republican if he simply refused to say anything. A cynical view for this move for this move, of course, is that Powell clearly cares about his legacy and this is his way, perhaps, of redeeming himself to the media and insiders."
• Martin: "More broadly, it's fascinating, that two of McCain's allies and fellow Vietnam vets, Chuck Hagel and Colin Powell, are remaining on the sidelines. Both, it seems, respect McCain too much to dishonor him by appearing at his opponent's convention (as Hagel's office announced yesterday). But both also are concerned enough about the Bush administration, the war and perhaps McCain's ties to the two that they also have yet to get behind their friend."

However, many liberal bloggers were highly suspicious of Kristol, who's known for several terrible predictions and who many see as a Republican hack with ulterior motives.

• MyDD's Jonathan Singer: "For what it's worth, Kristol is about as far from a straight ahead reporter as they come, and just about everything he writes comes from a partisan Republican perspective. What's more, Powell's spokesman is emphatically denying that Powell will be at either party's convention in the coming weeks."
• Shakesville's Melissa McEwan: "Given his track record on everything else (*cough* Iraq War *cough*), I'm sure this info is solid and you can take this prediction to the bank!"
• Think Progress's Satyam: "Caution: Note that the Kristol Ball has a mixed record," linking to a post detailing his failed prediction of GOP strategist Mike Murphy joining the McCain camp, as well as the three major factual errors he committed in the first six months of his New York Times column.

THOUGHT OF THE DAY: Where Does The Edwards Love-Child Fit In?

Weaving together suspicions over both the Rove story and the Kristol story, Washington Note's Steve Clemons: "So, what is Bill Kristol up to? I have a hunch -- but it's completely speculative. Since Steve Schmidt was given the operative reins of the McCain campaign, Schmidt has been pushing hard for flamboyant, dramatic showdowns to contrast McCain from Obama. He helped orchestrate the ongoing political theater on oil drilling. And Schmidt and his team have grabbed the Russia-Georgia conflict and tried to ratchet higher US-Russian tension rather than stand down, again to differentiate the McCain camp from what they hope is perceived as a more dovish Obama position. My hunch is that Bill Kristol and friends don't want interest-calculating negotiators and balanced, sensible, pragmatic realists around McCain. They are perhaps using the Russia conflict to purge their foreign policy team of those who are not neocon or neocon-friendly -- and by trying to 'export Colin Powell to Obama,' Kristol is really going after his close friend and ally Richard Armitage while at the same time attacking General Powell's utility to Obama. And who is helping Steve Schmidt and Bill Kristol orchestrate this purge and exploit this European crisis? I think Colin Powell's old White House nemesis -- Karl Rove. Just a hunch -- but McCain's team is working on achieving national security clarity of the neoconservative kind."

LEST WE FORGET: Obama's October Surprise

The Onion: "Barack Obama's once-commanding lead in the polls slipped to two points Monday, continuing a month-long slide that many credit to the recent appearance of the Democratic candidate's heretofore unknown half-brother, Cooter Obama. Long kept a family secret, the overalls-clad, straw-chewing Kentuckian first entered the public spotlight in July, when he drove his 1982 Ford flatbed pickup through the press corps at an Obama rally in order to inform his brother that he caught the skunk that had been living under his front porch. According to witnesses, Cooter's skunk proceeded to spray Washington Post political reporter Michael D. Shear in the face. 'Sorry 'bout that, mister! Some tomater juice'll take care of the stank,' Cooter said as his mortified younger brother led him off the stage. 'Shoot, Barack, you didn't tell me you was runnin' for president!' ... [P]olitical experts said Cooter's increased visibility in recent weeks has hurt Obama's polling among urban, upper-middle-class, non-straw-hat-wearing voters."

Posted by Chris Bodenner at August 14, 2008 12:57 PM