March 05, 2008

3/5: The Firewall Holds!

Now that it looks like Hillary Clinton's victories in OH, TX, and RI will prolong the Dem race for at least seven more weeks, liberal bloggers are debating whether or not this is a good thing for the party. Many bloggers are worried that an increasingly nasty battle between HRC and Barack Obama will weaken the eventual Dem nominee and give John McCain a head start on defining his opponents. Others -- including Markos Moulitsas -- don't mind that the Dem race won't be over any time soon. In their view, the HRC-Obama contest will keep McCain out of the headlines and test Obama's ability to withstand attacks (yes, most liberal bloggers still assume that Obama will be the nominee because of his pledged delegate lead).

Meanwhile, conservative bloggers are giddy with excitement over the prospect of a protracted HRC-Obama battle. Some are already speculating about a brokered convention. In their eyes, the GOP's chances of holding the White House are looking better by the day.

DEM FIELD: I Have A Bad Feeling About This...

Many liberal bloggers are nervous about the prospect of an increasingly nasty HRC-Obama battle:

AMERICAblog's John Aravosis: "[HRC] can't win. But she can ensure that Obama is so bloodied, to use Rush Limbaugh's description of the Clinton strategy, that Obama is damaged goods come the fall. After all, if Hillary can't get the nomination, then nobody should. While I respect the arguments that the lengthy primary process has skyrocketed Democratic turnout and organizing, it's also tearing us and our candidates apart. And get ready for Team Clinton to go even more negative after last night. That means more racism and more made-for-GOP-TV statements about how John McCain is the most experienced candidate for president."

Ezra Klein: "Clinton's victory speech tonight is probably the best I've seen her give. [...] The problem is, at the end of the day, she'll still have to trash the likely nominee, overturn the will of the pledged delegates, and force through a change in the DNC rules to win. Her speech is good, but what it signifies, for the party, is quite dangerous."

The Huffington Post's Bob Cesca: "Would someone please tell [HRC] that she can't win on delegates and this is only going to help the Republicans? Please?"

Open Left's Chris Bowers: "[This race is] gonna get even nastier. I think the most telling rhetorical moment of the night was when, during Clinton's speech, her supporters started chanting 'Yes, She Will,' or something to that effect. Whatever it was, it was directly aimed not just as Barack Obama, but at Barack Obama supporters. I can't remember something like that ever happening before. [...] You could feel their disgust with Obama supporters, which certainly is a sign that Clinton supporters don't care how nasty her campaign might get against Obama. [...] This could get really, really ugly."

Bowers also expects McCain to benefit from the lengthy HRC-Obama race: "I have long argued that whoever has the momentum in the primary campaign will always perform better in the general election. For the next several weeks, neither Clinton nor Obama will have momentum in the primary campaign, but McCain probably will. As our campaign gets nastier and remains somewhat inconclusive, there is a good chance McCain will gain on both Clinton and Obama."

DEM FIELD II: Bring Da Ruckus!

Other liberal bloggers don't mind that the Dem contest will continue for another seven weeks (or longer):

Daily Kos' Moulitsas: "I know many of you worry about the race getting ugly or whatever. I'm looking forward to the coming weeks. For one, Obama may finally have to go negative. I've never seen him do that. He's never had to do that. Second of all, as long as the talking heads are talking about the Democratic race, that's time they're not talking about their 'maverick' friend. And what's the debate about between Obama and Clinton? Health care. Iraq. Jobs. The sort of thing that can only help us long term. Finally, Obama has to prove that he can bounce back from such setbacks. He's had a mostly charmed political life. A little political adversity is important. [...] So I'm cool with [HRC] continuing on. I certainly won't be calling for her to quit."

TPM's Josh Marshall: "What we've seen over the last week is nothing compared to what Barack Obama would face this fall if he hangs on and wins the nomination. So I think the big question is, can he fight back? Can he take this back to Hillary Clinton, demonstrate his ability to take punches and punch back? By this I don't mean that he's got to go ballistic on her or go after Bill [Clinton]'s business deals or whatever else her vulnerabilities might be. Candidates fight in different ways and if they're good candidates in ways that play to their strengths and cohere with their broader message. But he's got to show he can take this back to Hillary and not get bloodied and battered when an opponent decides to lower the boom."

The Washington Monthly's Kevin Drum: "The hot topic of conversation right now is the proposition that a long, drawn-out Democratic primary runs the risk of destroying the party and putting John McCain in the White House. So for the good of the country, Hillary should withdraw. [...] I say: chill out. Like a lot of people, I'm not very happy about the direction the Democratic campaign has taken, but the idea that it's going to wreck the eventual winner's chances in the fall seems pretty far fetched. It takes more than a few nasty exchanges to do that. And who knows? By keeping Dems in the spotlight, it might even help them. Stranger things have happened."

TalkLeft's Big Tent Democrat: "Is the continuation of this race a bad thing? Not necessarily. Neither Hillary Clinton nor Barack Obama have answered all the questions a nominee must answer before we can feel confident of his or her chances in November. Barack Obama has yet to show he can win a big key contested state that we will need in November. [...] And Hillary Clinton has not shown any ability to compete in the wine class track of voters. And while normally one would never have imagined the Clintons having trouble with African Americans, the stark reality NOW is that this nominating process has weakened Hillary Clinton's appeal with African Americans. This matters. A lot."

DEM FIELD III: Getting Better All The Time

Conservative bloggers are thrilled that HRC and Obama will continue to battle it out for the Dem nod:

Townhall's Amanda Carpenter: "I must say, it's utterly delightful for Republicans to watch Democrats destroy the best chance they've had to take the White House in years. [...] While Clinton and Obama are busy trying to figure out how to take each other out through the rest of the spring, GOP nominee John McCain will be mounting a national campaign, raising money and mending fences with the party's conservative base. And, if Republicans are lucky, Hillary's negative attacks on Obama might just provide the cover Republicans need to until November when they can unload on her."

RedState's Pejman Yousefzadeh: "Clinton's wins in Texas and Ohio will only serve to prolong the fight for the Democratic nomination. This will exhaust the candidates, exhaust their resources and make it that much harder for Democrats to eventually unite for the fall campaign. Meanwhile, Republicans will have time to coalesce around John McCain."

Townhall's Hugh Hewitt: "[There's] not enough time or delegates [for HRC] to beat Obama fairly. She'll have to cheat to win. Period. [...] The Democrats are now dancing on a cliff unlike any they have been on since 1968 when the demands for new voices and change ran straight into the entrenched interests of unions and special interest groups that have long made common cause with the D.C. Dems. The Dems shattered 40 years ago. The sequel may be even more destructive of the left."

CLINTON: And All The Roads We Have To Walk Are Winding

Many liberal bloggers are pointing out that HRC still lags behind Obama in the pledged delegate race:

Marshall: "You have to give Clinton credit. [...] She hung in there, threw everything they had at Obama, and she's pulled this off. She doesn't give up; she doesn't quit. In a day or two, I think those delegate numbers are going to sink in. And her path to the nomination still looks incredibly difficult. But give her her due."

Moulitsas: "A good night for Clinton, she did what she set out to do -- win Texas and Ohio. [...] If she's eaten into Obama's [delegate] lead, then we've got a serious rationale for the race to continue. If Obama wins the delegate count tonight, which is still pretty possible (remarkably, because this primary process is so stupid), then Clinton will have ended her 'good' night without making ground where it actually matters. We'll see."

Aravosis: "It doesn't matter if the media perceives Hillary getting 'momentum' tonight if she doesn't get enough delegates to catch up with Obama. This is a 50-state election. She lost too many other states by too much of a margin to catch up with Obama's delegate total at this late date."

The Huffington Post's Marc Cooper: "After the confetti is swept and the champagne bottles are tossed a more sober reality will take hold. Not just that [HRC's] net gain of delegates this week will be, at most, in the single digits. But worse. There is no plausible scenario in which Clinton can win the nomination. At least not democratically."

MyDD's Jerome Armstrong pushes back against these arguments: "It amazes me how many inaccurate articles and blog posts state that Clinton 'just can't win' the pledged-delegate battle. Well guess what? Neither can Obama! It takes a deep level of self-deception to believe that Obama, or Clinton, having a lead in the overall total of pledged delegates, despite failing to get to the level of the number needed to secure the nomination, [will] secure the nomination. [...] As far as the rules go, there is no indication at all that a pledged delegate lead should mean anything more than a bunch of other quasi-measurements that could be used to secure the nomination via super-delegates."

OBAMA: As Goes Ohio...

Obama's online critics think yesterday's results raise serious questions about his electability:

Armstrong: "Obama has a huge electability problem in [OH]. He took a total of 5 counties, and lost in 82 counties. Even though he's able to rack up a large number of urban black voters he did terrible among white voters, winning just 34 percent. You don't win a general election in Ohio if you can only win in 5 counties. [...] And lets not forget that Obama outspent Clinton by a 3 or 4:1 margin, and had the union help. There's no amount of money or youth organizing that is going to change the dynamics at work against Obama in Ohio in the November general. We'll see in a month, but my guess is that we get about the same map coming out of Pennsylvania. There is not a winning Democratic electoral map which doesn't include either or both Ohio and Pennsylvania."

Big Tent Democrat: "Barack Obama has yet to show he can win a big key contested state that we will need in November. The naysaying ostriches want to pretend this does not matter. Sorry, it does. The heart of Obama's problem is he has not been able to demonstrate an ability to appeal to white women, working class whites, seniors and Latinos. These are key constituencies in November any Democratic nominee must have to win in November. Having some number of Republicans and Independents cross over to vote for you in a primary or caucus is great, but how much of that will be repeatable in November? How much will it matter that you won a primary or caucus in Utah, North Dakota and Idaho?"

MCCAIN: Meet Your GOP Nominee

Power Line's John Hinderaker: "Most voters don't pick candidates by reviewing a checklist of issues. Most voters try to size up the candidate's character, temperament and stature, and are willing to vote for candidates across what we ideologues would consider a broad philosophical range. John McCain is, as many have said, a great man and a great American. While I disagree with him on a number of issues, I'm not sorry to see him as our nominee."

Power Line's Paul Mirengoff adds: "If McCain is as competitive with the Dems as the polls now suggest, I won't be sorry either."

Townhall's Carol Platt Liebau: "I haven't been a fan of John McCain's. [...] But with all his faults, he is the only candidate remaining in this race who really understands the stakes in the war on terror, and the only one who's prepared and willing to make the tough decisions that will be required to defeat the Islamofascists."

RedState's Adam C: "Congratulations to Senator McCain on this well-earned victory. It is time to look forward toward November and to unite behind the Senator from Arizona."

Michelle Malkin, on the other hand, is still coming to terms with McCain's victory: "It's official. Sigh. McCain is the GOP presidential nominee. Nose plugs, anyone?"

HUCKABEE: Good Night, Sweet Prince

Several conservative bloggers commented on Mike Huckabee's exit from the race:

NRO's Rich Lowry: "[Huckabee]'s a very talented man and has gotten incredibly far. He has a future in the national GOP, especially if he spends the next few years in serious political spadework rather than in rank self-promotion. Congrats to him for out-running all expectations in this race."

AmSpec Blog's Philip Klein: "I think that Mike Huckabee damaged himself by staying in the race for the last few weeks. [...] With that said, Huckabee ran a strong campaign on a shoestring budget, shook up the party, and emerged as an important -- perhaps now the most prominent -- evangelical political leader. Overall, his campaign has to be seen as a smashing success."

CBN's David Brody: "Why couldn't Huckabee pull it off? [...] Let's start with two words: National Security. Look, he could never convince the GOP establishment, military generals, Evangelical leaders and voters in general that he was 'tough enough' for the job. [...] Another factor that didn't help was how [Mitt] Romney, [Fred] Thompson, Limbaugh and Club for Growth painted him as a tax and spend liberal. It hurt him and Huckabee was frustrated by it. But the biggest frustration may be how Evangelical leaders never got behind Huckabee. James Dobson did but not until it was way too late. The rest of them stood on the sidelines and left Huckabee high and dry. This hurt him."

A few bloggers urged Huckabee to challenge AR Sen. Mark Pryor:

• Hot Air's Allahpundit: "Nothing left to do but run for Senate. See you on the trail, Huck."
• Townhall's Mary Katharine Ham: "Now, what kind of deliberative body might be in danger of tipping overwhelmingly toward the Dems this year and could use a GOP candidate in Arkansas, who would enjoy a job that involves mostly chatting with reporters and giving speeches?"

THOUGHT OF THE DAY: Poisoning The Well?

The Atlantic's James Fallows thinks HRC is trying to win on "Pyrrhic terms":

"In a live CNN interview just now, Sen. Clinton repeated, twice, the 'Sen. McCain has a lifetime of experience, I have a lifetime of experience, Sen. Obama has one speech in 2002' line. By what logic, exactly, does a member of the Democratic party include the 'Sen. McCain has a lifetime of experience' part of that sentence? [...]

I have reached the point of wanting to scream every time I hear about the primacy of 'experience,' knowing how skillfully the 46-year old Bill Clinton waved that argument away when it was used against him 16 years ago by a sitting President who simply dwarfed him in high-level experience. But to pose it in a form that is poison for the party should Obama be the nominee??? To produce a clip that the McCain campaign could run unedited every single day of a campaign against Obama? That is something special...If Bill Clinton poisoned the well for other possible Democratic nominees in quite the same way back in 1992, I can't think of it now. [...]

Obama [has] put Hillary Clinton into a position where in order to win, she had to damage not just him but the party. That is why, as everyone is saying, the big victor today is John McCain, and not just in the obvious way."

LEST WE FORGET: It's Been Great, And I'm Ready For It To Be Over

Open Left's Mike Lux is tired:

"[This Dem primary]'s been great in so many ways -- history making, energizing, turnout has been through the roof, it's meant the votes of people in most of the country [have] mattered unlike most years, vigorous debate on big issues and how best to make change. It's been really fun, and really good for the party. But I'm beginning to hope it doesn't last much longer.

I feel like we've reached the point where the debate is getting stale and yet also meaner and more damaging all the time, and where if it keeps going on much longer, we'll start having the arguments seem pettier and pettier, about rules and credentials and small-minded attacks about stupid stuff. And we've reached that juncture where it seems better for us to turn our attention to defining McCain rather than carving up each other."

Posted by Ian Faerstein at March 5, 2008 12:53 PM