February 08, 2008

2/8: McCain In The Lion's Den

John McCain's speech at the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) was received positively by most conservative bloggers. They appeciated McCain's candid recognition of his (many) differences with the GOP base. And, while they still have deep misgivings about McCain, they are pleased that he has begun the process of reaching out to conservatives.

That said, they still feel that McCain has spent the past eight years deliberately alienating them, and many were quick to point out that it will take more than a single speech to mend their relationship. A quick visit to Michelle Malkin's site, Hot Air, or The Corner makes it clear that the wounds caused by McCain's role in last summer's immigration debate are still fresh. The AZ senator will have to continue to work at shoring up the GOP base (and pick a conservative running mate!) before he can even begin thinking about the general election.

MCCAIN: Well Done, Senator

Most conservative bloggers believe that McCain gave an excellent speech at CPAC:

RedState's Erick Erickson: "That was the best speech John McCain has given this election season. He won't calm everyone nor resolve all issues. He alluded to that. But the speech was good...Conservatives may not have gotten the whole loaf of bread they wanted, but they know where McCain stands, and he's willing to fight on grounds the Democrats would abdicate to the socialists within and terrorists without."

Captain's Quarters' Ed Morrissey: "That was an excellent speech. McCain genuinely reached out to conservatives in a heartfelt manner."

Townhall's Hugh Hewitt: "[McCain's speech] was a strong appeal to conservatives' strongest suit -- their deep patriotism and their admiration of his sacrifices and service...November's vote will be a referendum on whether to pursue victory or accept retreat in the war. Senator McCain has Governor [Mitt] Romney's support in that campaign, and he should have the support of all conservatives as well."

NRO's Stanley Kurtz: "I thought McCain did an excellent job, and notwithstanding what seemed like a faction of pre-planned booers at the start, he won over most of the crowd. Will all this be enough to unite the party? It's too early to say. But everyone seemed to agree that McCain's speech today was the right way to start."

Power Line's Paul Mirengoff: "In reality, McCain is not as bad as some conservatives made him out to be when it looked like his nomination might be avoided, and he's not as good as other conservative will make him out to be now that his nomination is inevitable. The bottom line is that McCain made the right move by reaching out to conservatives through this speech, and the conservative audience made the right move by reacting well to this overture. This sort of grown-up behavior on both sides will be essential if the election of a leftist Democrat is to be avoided."

MCCAIN II: Talk Is Cheap

Other conservative bloggers are not ready to embrace McCain just yet:

Michelle Malkin: "I respect [McCain's] decision to stand in the lion's den, and I agreed with much of the speech. I found myself nodding as he touted his opposition to ethanol subsidies, national catastrophic insurance, and the Medicare prescription drug benefit. But I don't for a minute buy his claim that he 'respects the opposition' of his staunchest opponents, especially the anti-amnesty crowd. These are folks he has cursed and likened to Bull Connor-style bigots. He has done nothing to rid his campaign staff and finance board of the most extreme open-borders zealots. I said he needed to do more than mouth the Right platitudes. Still waiting."

AmSpec Blog's Quin Hillyer: "The man made a good speech. And on substance, it offered strong arguments for conservatives to support him. It doesn't change the fact that he is, charitably speaking, a jerk...There is STILL no sense from him that he regrets his own actions, or that he has ever transgressed. Look, disagreement on some issues is fine, if done respectfully. Disagreement while shoving a shiv in our ribs is another thing. McCain is famous for the shiv. And he seems not to regret it in the least."

AmSpec Blog's James Antle: "I can respect conservatives who go down the checklist of issues and find John McCain preferable to Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. That's a perfectly fine reason to vote for him rather than a liberal Democrat in the general election. But the fact that 'Mac Changed Minds' is less a reflection of his underwhelming, patronizing speech -- Reagan, blah blah, Burke, blah blah, did I mention Reagan? -- than their desire to be convinced now that he is the certain nominee...Why do we have to delude ourselves that the lesser evil is anything other than that? Conservatism is indeed the realm of ideas, not just electoral politics. Let's allow 2008 to sort itself out and get on with the task of reinvigorating conservative policy ideas for the next few decades. The next president, whoever he or she is, will not be of much help in that area. Neither will we if we ignore ideas and instead focus entirely on elections."

MCCAIN III: Veepstakes

Several conservative bloggers are already speculating about whom McCain should pick as his running mate:

Campaign Standard's Stephen F. Hayes thinks Mike Huckabee would be a poor choice: "The last thing McCain needs to do at this point -- or in July, when these discussions are more appropriate -- is willingly acquire liberal baggage. And despite Huckabee's embrace of the Fair Tax, which has its virtues, he is a class-warfare liberal on economic policy. More troublesome, however, is his naivete on national security and foreign policy, well documented here and elsewhere."

Campaign Standard's Fred Barnes likes Jeb Bush: "Too bad [Jeb]'s not available. Jeb perfectly meets the specifications of what McCain, or any Republican presidential nominee, needs in a running mate. He's had a splendidly successful political career. He's not only a favorite of economic conservatives, he's also highly regarded by social and foreign policy conservatives as well. And he's likeable and experienced. What more could McCain want? Maybe a policy wonk to offset his lack of depth on domestic issues? Jeb qualifies on that count, too."

ROMNEY: Exit Stage Right

Most conservative bloggers are praising Romney for what they consider his gracious exit:

Townhall's Matt Lewis: "I think Mitt Romney did an honorable thing today. By stepping aside, he sacrificed his personal glory for the good of the movement, the good of the party, and the good of the country."

NRO's Kathryn Jean Lopez: "Staying in would forestall a national McCain and we must defeat the defeatists; [Romney] did the honorable thing and is a winner for it."

Quin Hillyer: "Mitt Romney just suspended his campaign with extraordinary class, with a superb speech and a call to unite to oppose violent jihad. Good for him. God bless him."

Hugh Hewitt: "Governor Romney is an incredibly gifted man -- intelligent in the way very few people are, charismatic, and blessed with an amiable openness and determined, strong character...Had the conservative movement more quickly recognized these qualities, the coming together around Romney that has occurred in the last few weeks would have assured him the nomination and, I think, the White House. But it didn't, and now the task is to assure that Senator McCain succeeds President Bush for the very reasons Mitt Romney outlined today."

Other bloggers are discussing how Romney's campaign fell short:

RedState's Leon H. Wolf: "The basic problems with Romney's campaign were twofold. First, Romney's campaign apparently felt the need to always portray Romney as the perfect candidate for whatever audience he was in front of...Second, the Romney campaign failed to realize that in a primary, you need to run a campaign in such a way as to leave the door open for the possibility that the supporters of other candidates might want to support your guy once those other candidates leave the race. Romney's campaign appeared relentlessly negative to supporters of the other candidates, so that as a result, when the other candidates dropped out, personal bad feelings kept Romney from picking their supporters up in significant numbers."

Townhall's Patrick Ruffini:

"CPAC rewards the candidate whose words (today at least) most closely match the clearly defined worldview of its audience. Much the same is true of the predominantly economic and national security conservatives in the blogosphere and on talk radio.

What Romney didn't account for is that it would take more than being a CPAC, or Agenda Conservative to win the nomination. Country Music Conservatives -- and frankly, most voters outside the Beltway swamp -- don't listen to your words; they listen to your tone of voice as you're delivering those words. Do you get angry when you should? What's your sense of humor like? For social conservatives, are you grounded in faith? And ultimately, are you the real deal? [...]

It all boils down to Agenda Conservatives being nowhere near a majority of the party. Yes, John McCain was a weak frontrunner, but Mitt Romney was a weak challenger, and enough conservatives chose character and authenticity over issues to make the difference. Let's face it: in this primary, blogs and talk radio were an echo chamber. What was happening in the electorate (identity-minded Christian voters choosing Huck; loosely affiliated conservatives choosing McCain) was unthinkable to Agenda Conservatives."

DEM FIELD: It's A Bird, It's A Plane, It's...Superdelegates!

Many progressive bloggers are discussing the possibility that superdelegates and/or the MI and FL delegates will determine the Dem nominee:

David Sirota: "There's a lot of legitimate concern out there about so-called superdelegates deciding who receives the Democratic presidential nomination...So how do we prevent the Democratic nomination from becoming a smoky backroom deal?...The best we can hope for is pressure on existing superdelegates to simply represent how their states voted."

TAPPED's Scott Lemieux: "I agree with Ezra [Klein] that it would be unfortunate for the nomination to come down to superdelegates, and I would hope that the norm among many superdelegates would be to support a clear winner...As Publius says, trying to seat the Florida and Michigan delegates should be -- in absence of a fair election with known stakes being held in those states -- considered the nuclear option, one that would tear the party apart. There's an important distinction between maximizing your advantages within the existing rules and retroactively changing the rules when they don't work in your favor."

Atrios: "My basic take is that MI and FL delegates shouldn't be seated, though if they want a do over with another caucus or primary that'd be fine. As for the superdelegates...well, I guess I'll be a bit annoyed if they swing this one way or another, but not that annoyed. I'm annoyed by the system. There are just too many superdelegates relative to the total. But that is the system."

Open Left's Chris Bowers is angered by what he considers the Clinton camp's hypocrisy: "There is no way that Clinton's nearly a 2-1 lead in super delegates should be considered legitimate given how close the popular vote has been. For the Clinton campaign, respecting democracy is the thing to do when it favors the Clinton campaign, while respecting the rules of the DNC is the thing to if democracy doesn't produce the right outcome. On the one hand, the Clinton campaign is arguing they should be considered ahead because of super delegates, but on the other hand arguing that Michigan and Florida primary results should be respected because that is the democratic thing to do. You just can't have it both ways."

CLINTON: I Get Money, Money I Got

Many liberal bloggers are impressed by the Clinton camp's recent surge in online fundraising:

Open Left's Matt Stoller: "What is remarkable about the last 48 hours is the haul by the Hillary Clinton campaign of around $7 million from 45,000 online donors or so. These are suburban women who probably haven't been part of the culture of online giving, and who for some reason have started to contribute...What happened now, though, is that the Clinton campaign just tapped out of its [Terry] McAuliffe big dollar donors, and Clinton was forced to rely on her real base -- the women who love her. And unwittingly, with her showing in the Super Tuesday states and her $5 million donation to her own campaign, she asked them for support in a way she never had. And they responded."

TalkLeft's Big Tent Democrat: "The Clinton campaign has to be breathing a sigh of relief. This kind of online fundraising has never been a Clinton campaign focus so this was semi-uncharted waters for them...There is deeper and more committed grassroots support for Hillary Clinton than many of us, probably including the Clinton campaign, realized. Clearly Obama has the fundraising edge, but if these trends hold, it is not THE decisive edge."

MyDD's Todd Beeton: "The overall fundraising number also represents a fairly masterful management of expectations on the Clinton campaign's part. On February 6th the campaign released the surprising information that Clinton had loaned herself $5M in January, which had a dual effect: it made Clinton seem weak, which then motivated her base to pony up. And with a $3M goal for 72 hours, the bar was set rather low so that reaching that amount in 1 day instead of 3 was a sign of unexpected strength, exactly the good news Clinton needed to stem any Obama momentum."

CLINTON II: Don't Look For Sympathy Here

Several liberal bloggers are unsympathetic to HRC's challenge to Obama to join her in five one-on-one debates:

Big Tent Democrat thinks Obama would be "crazy" to accept HRC's challenge: "Given Hillary Clinton's money woes, Barack Obama would be crazy to agree to once a week debates with Hillary Clinton. He is coldly and remorselessly pressing his money advantage by NOT debating her. I would think less of him if he did agree to debate once a week...Obama is a pol, doing what is best for his campaign. As he should. Being a pol is what he is supposed to do."

Meanwhile, Firedoglake's Jane Hamsher is angry with HRC for agreeing to debate on Fox News: "Under normal circumstances, the online community would probably be calling for [Obama] to accept the debate challenge, to keep the Democratic message before the public, and decry the reliance on carefully sculpted advertising content where the advantage went to the person with the most money. But that disappeared the minute Fox News entered the picture. The very same people who would have been trying to level the playing field and push for open debate are simply not going to advocate for a situation where Fox News becomes empowered with arbiter status to a new audience of people who are just tuning into the political conversation. And Clinton undermines her message to these people -- that the right wing noise machine is something to be fought, not accommodated -- when she shows a willingness to offer them that authority."

THOUGHT OF THE DAY: This Could Get Messy

Chris Bowers thinks there are three ways in which the Dem primary could end:

• "If Obama wins non-Michigan and Florida pledged delegates by more than 100, then he will win the nomination. From that point, he will be able to dictate the rules of the convention via the credentials committee, and win.
• If Clinton wins non-Michigan and Florida pledged delegates even by 1, then she will win the nomination. From that point, she will be able to seal the deal via super delegates and the credentials committee.
• If, after the primaries and caucuses finish on June 7th, the pledged delegate totals are somewhere in between those two ranges, then we will probably have a brokered convention. Or, at least, there will be some sort of brokered pre-convention, involving the credentials committee and negotiations with Howard Dean."

LEST WE FORGET: Phoenix Goes Diesel

The Atlantic's Matthew Yglesias does not understand why the Suns traded Shawn Marion for Shaquille O'Neal:

"Shawn Marion is not only better, cheaper, and younger than Shaq, but he logs more minutes per game. Indeed, he plays more minutes per game than anyone else on the Phoenix roster. So expect to see more Brian Skinner and Boris Diaw in the future. The (rare) defenses of this trade, meanwhile, don't seem to grasp that just because Phoenix was relatively unlikely to win a championship pre-trade hardly justifies doing a deal that makes the team worse...Maybe if Phoenix hadn't sold those draft picks they could have struck gold. Anything but this."

Posted by Ian Faerstein at February 8, 2008 12:46 PM