February 05, 2008

2/5: Super Scenarios

Most liberal bloggers believe that Hillary Clinton will win more states and more delegates today than Barack Obama. However, they also predict that Obama's recent surge will keep things close and that tonight's results are unlikely to be decisive. Consequently, several liberal bloggers are already discussing the possibility that superdelegates will determine the Dem nominee -- a scenario that Chris Bowers calls "a complete disaster." If today's results do indeed prove indecisive, superdelegates will almost certainly become a major topic of conversation in the liberal blogosphere during the upcoming weeks.

On the GOP side, most conservative bloggers expect John McCain to do very well today, but they don't think that he'll be able to deliver a knockout blow to Mitt Romney if the latter wins CA. Many conservative bloggers are trying to come to grips with the prospect of McCain as the GOP nominee. While some conservative bloggers have deep reservations about supporting McCain in the general election, most of them have indicated that they will suck it up and vote for the maverick in order to prevent HRC or Obama from winning the White House. That said, as long as Romney is still alive and kicking, most conservative bloggers will continue to rally behind the ex-governor.

DEM FIELD: The Pressure's On...Hillary?

Daily Kos' Markos Moulitsas thinks Obama just needs to "survive": "For Obama, his task for Tuesday is simply to survive. He needs to finish within 200 delegates of Clinton to keep it close, because the rest of the month is tailor made for Obama...Hillary's task is to defeat Obama decisively on Tuesday. If she can't manage that, then her plan B is to survive February to fight in March...If she does, then they both have to survive the mini-Super Tuesday on March 4th. If they do, this thing goes to Pennsylvania. Or to North Carolina. Or to the convention."

Open Left's Matt Stoller thinks the pressure is actually on HRC, not Obama: "Clinton raised $10M in January, not a small amount. But Obama raised $32M, with a good amount of that coming in over the internet from small dollar donors. He can and will continue to raise money from these people. If Obama does well on Super Tuesday, he will set himself up for a delegate lead later in the month because of a slew of favorable states, and he will end up drying up Clinton's money. Clinton donors gave because they saw her as inevitable, but if she doesn't take the majority of delegates on Tuesday it's going to be tough to close what is clearly a widening money gap."

MyDD's Jonathan Singer agrees: "If [HRC] is able put Obama away by taking a significant delegate lead tomorrow -- one that couldn't be whittled away during the subsequent February nominating contests, which seem to generally favor Obama -- she might be able to end the nomination battle a lot sooner than many currently believe. However, I believe that Markos is totally spot on when he writes today that if Clinton is unable to bank enough delegates tomorrow she could find herself in some long-term difficulties because of a possibly massive fundraising disadvantage."

DEM FIELD II: She'll Win, But By How Much?

Chris Bowers makes a prediction: "Currently, by multiplying the average polling margin by the number of delegates in each state, I arrive at an estimate of Clinton 889 delegates, Obama 799 pledged delegates earned from Super Tuesday itself. However, in virtually every state, more recent polls show better results for Obama, which should improve his standing almost across the board. At this point, a 90-delegate victory for Clinton on Super Tuesday is probably her best-case scenario, and the margin should [be] less than 50 delegates in either direction. A narrow Obama victory on Super Tuesday is even within his reach now."

Singer makes a similar prediction: "If I had to venture a guess, it would be that Clinton would come out on top in the delegate race out of [today], by somewhere in the range of 50 to 100 delegates of those pledged [today]. This would give her an overall lead in the delegate race, which she currently trails by 15 to Obama. While I wouldn't be shocked to see her lead on February 6 smaller than that, I would be quite surprised if Obama were able to maintain his pledged delegate lead or even extend it."

Meanwhile, Moulitsas chastises Obama supporters for their "irrational exuberance": "Clinton is going to win the day. The key is to limit her margin of victory and keep it close enough for Obama to catch up later in the month and into March and April. If Obama supporters build themselves up to the point they actually think they can win [today] (by citing bogus polls by Zogby, for example, and cherry picking the best of the other polls), then anything but a victory will be a demoralizing letdown. This isn't about lowering expectations. It's about the reality of the situation. Obama has been slowly building up, and has had to overcome huge advantages enjoyed by the Clintons."

MyDD's Jerome Armstrong considers HRC the overwhelming favorite to win the Dem nod: "A lead of 60 more delegates going to Clinton [today] would put her lead overall at about 150 delegates...With less than 1600 more delegates to be selected by states after [2/5], and assuming the rest of the superdelegates break even, that translates into Obama having to win the rest of the state delegates by a 55-45 percent margin to overtake Clinton's 150 delegate lead. That's probably doable but tough to do too; especially when it's going to be state by state from here on out. I'm actually surprised that the bar has been lowered to a mere 100 seat delegate advantage for a winner to be declared among the pundits. That seems very achievable for Clinton [today]; all that really seems to have to happen is for [John] Zogby to be wrong again."

DEM FIELD III: You Call This A Democracy?

Several liberal bloggers are worried about the growing possibility that superdelegates will decide the Dem nomination:

Bowers: "It can no longer be avoided: super delegates will determine the Democratic Presidential nominee this year...The largest possible pledged delegate margin Clinton can have after Super Tuesday is 937 to 862...That leaves Clinton 1,088 pledged delegates from clinching the nomination, with only 1,428 pledged delegates remaining. Thus, in order to win the nomination without the aid of super delegates, in her best-case scenario after Super Tuesday, Clinton would need to win 76.2% of all remaining pledged delegates. Given our proportional delegate system, there is simply no way that is going to happen unless Obama drops out...My instincts tell me this is a complete disaster, since it will shine light on complicated bylaws and the questionable democratic nature of the delegate selection process instead of on voters."

Atrios: "I don't really have the problem with the existence of superdelegates, I just think that the Democrats have way too many of them. The primary system is already a bit of a farce, a kind of fake vote. With the timing issues, the caucuses, the various methods of allocating delegates, etc...it's hardly a pure exercise in democracy. The inclusion of some superdelegates on top of that system isn't particularly problematic. But since they're almost 20% of the total delegate count, I think that if they were to tip the balance there'd be a pretty big backlash. Candidate supporters give a lot of time and money to their chosen candidate, and they'll rightly be a bit annoyed to discover how much power the superdelegates wield. If they constituted 5% or so of the delegates this would be less of an issue."

OBAMA: More Blogger Endorsements

The Washington Monthly's Kevin Drum switches his support from HRC to Obama: "I've got some good reasons and some bad reasons for changing my mind. The good reasons include (a) the ugliness coming out of the Clinton camp over the past couple of weeks, which has turned me off, (b) a growing sense that Obama's steadiness running his campaign under fire is a good sign of what he'd be like as president, and (c) some of the red state endorsements Obama has gotten recently, which speak well for his potential to produce strong coattails in November...I still don't know whether Obama is likely to be the Democratic Ronald Reagan (my hope) or the next Democratic Jimmy Carter (my fear), but I like his temperament, I like his judgment, I like his foreign policy, I like his obvious ability to inspire, and I think he's more likely to be RR than JC. I guess I'm willing to roll the dice."

Obsidian Wings' hilzoy endorses Obama: "I sometimes wonder why, exactly, people go on saying all this stuff about Obama lacking substance...part of it might be the assumption that idealism is necessarily woolly and misty-eyed and all about singing Kumbaya, while realism is necessarily cynical and disillusioned. I have never believed this. There are certainly hard-bitten, cynical people who don't think particularly clearly about the world (Dick Cheney leaps to mind.) More to the point, I can't see any reason why there shouldn't also be people who are both genuinely idealistic and hardheaded at the same time. I suspect Obama is one of them. I do not for a moment imagine that he is perfect. (Cough, clean coal technology, cough cough.) But I do think that he's one of the best candidates I can remember, and that's good enough for me."

The Huffington Post's RJ Eskow also endorses Obama: "Movements matter. New generations deserve the chance to be inspired. And we all deserve the chance to see the gifted and idealistic among them drawn into public service. Barack Obama will make that happen. And his outreach to Republicans and independents is brilliant. He's shown no sign of compromising his principles to be inclusive. On the contrary: inclusivity is one of his principles...I don't know what will happen in December, but I'm voting for the ticket that will draw a new generation into politics. Someone like me isn't like to change anybody's mind, and no doubt whoever gets nominated will sometimes disappoint me and others. But for whatever it's worth, I'm voting for Barack Obama."

MCCAIN: Dividing The Right

Michelle Malkin continues to hit McCain over his immigration record: "The McCain campaign continues to perpetuate its Big Lie in the run-up to Super Tuesday. And thanks to MSM enablers and open-borders Republicans rooting for a McCain win, voters are swallowing the Big Lie. The Big Lie is that McCain can be trusted on immigration and border security...You want straight talk? McCain's tongue says he's 'listened and learned.' But his heart is with La Raza, the militantly ethnocentric, anti-immigration enforcement Hispanic lobbying group that honored him in 1999 and whose annual conference he keynoted in 2004."

NRO's John O'Sullivan explains why conservatives might not support McCain in the general election: "Are there to be two multiculturalist open-borders parties or one? If McCain's election were to make the GOP fundamentally similar to the Democrats on immigration, bilingualism, racial preferences, and all the National Question issues, that would be a resounding historical defeat for conservatives. The willingness of a President McCain to cooperate with the Democrats would give such issues as an immigration amnesty a better chance of passage than under a President Hillary or Obama even against strong GOP resistance in Congress. Opponents of such policies, despite enjoying majority support among the voters, would find themselves politically marginalized."

NRO's Mark Steyn also feels unsure about voting for McCain in November: "Right now, the two-party system seems to have decayed into a one-and-a-half-party system, with McCain largely in agreement with the Dems on immigration, pharmaceutical companies, global warming and much else. A President McCain will get media bouquets for his bipartisanship in supporting the Democrat domestic agenda...One could make the case that the war, rather than being the sole overwhelming reason for electing McCain, is actually a compelling reason, given their convergence on domestic issues, why you might as well stick Hill in there. I don't think Mrs Clinton will be so eager to lose the thing once it's on her watch."

Commentary's Jennifer Rubin pushes back against the anti-McCain forces: "There is very little pro-Romney rhetoric being voiced by the McCain foes, perhaps an indication as to why McCain has been able to build a 20 point lead in national polls. It is hard to beat someone with simply a 'not him' argument, no matter how loudly one argues...There will eventually be a winner and a general election. If McCain does prevail and win the nomination, even some of the harshest critics will reverse course and support the GOP nominee they excoriated. Others will sulk, perhaps denying needed votes in a close general election."

Meanwhile, AmSpec Blog's Philip Klein explains how conservatives should treat McCain if he wins the GOP nod: "McCain always argues that people may not always agree with him, but he'll always put principle ahead of politics and fight like hell for whatever he believes is best for our country. Conservatives should take their cue from him. That is, when he is taking a position they agree with him on -- such as opposing pork barrel spending or pursuing victory in Iraq -- they should rally around him, but when he is pushing policies they abhor, they should oppose him fiercely and put principle ahead of loyalty to the leader of a political party."

ROMNEY: Don't Write Him Off Yet

Captain's Quarters' Ed Morrissey thinks Romney will survive Super Tuesday: "[McCain] will win New York, New Jersey, and Arizona, but I think Missouri will be a tougher road to hoe. Romney may well take a majority in California, too. I think McCain gets a plurality of the delegates, perhaps as high as 50%. Romney will take 40%, and [Mike] Huckabee will get 10%, all from the South. That still puts McCain in good position to win the nomination, but Romney won't get eliminated tonight -- and he will have some momentum as the conservatives continue to rally around him."

Power Line's John Hinderaker also sees hope for Romney: "After [today], 45% of Republican delegates will remain to be chosen. The press is fond of 'momentum,' and on Wednesday will likely decree that the momentum all lies with McCain's campaign. But Republican primary voters and caucus-goers are much less impressed with momentum. Many Republicans would like to see a more conservative nominee than John McCain, and they aren't going to give up easily. With Mitt Romney now the only realistic alternative, he will find a substantial core of support as long as he stays in the race."

Several conservative bloggers are discussing Romney's late surge in CA:

NRO's Byron York: "If Romney were to win California, he and his supporters would surely interpret it as a sign that the conservative movement is finally -- at the '11th hour and the 59th minute' as one Romney adviser told me -- organizing to stop McCain. If Romney, on the basis of a good showing in California, stays in the race, then the anti-McCain movement, led by talk radio and conservative activists, will have more time to work...For the anti-McCain forces, California is everything."

Townhall's Hugh Hewitt: "Romney's campaign has gone straight on McCain on the immigration issue in California...The Golden State, for the first time in years, will have a huge say in the nomination for both the Dems and the GOP. If Romney can win in the home of Reagan, he will have a great chance at leading the party of Reagan in the fall, regardless of how the Rockefeller Republicans vote in NY."

NRO's Jim Geraghty: "If California comes together for Romney in the final 48 hours, it will be a remarkable story of two last second back-from-the-grave moments in his campaign. Losing Michigan would have been an effective nail in the coffin, and much of last week looked gloomy for Romney. Maybe the post-Super-Tuesday race will be a marathon on both sides..."

THOUGHT OF THE DAY: A (Spin) War Mitt Can't Win

The Atlantic's Ross Douthat thinks Romney is already doomed:

"Romney is probably already toast, no matter what happens today. In the absolute best-case scenario for his campaign, he'll win California going away and several other close states (Missouri, Georgia, etc) into the bargain. Given the state of the race just a week ago, this would be a remarkable turnaround. But for Romney to have any hope of pulling the inside straight he needs to win the nomination, he'll need the press to report it that way, to cast him as the 'comeback kid' even though McCain will still have won more states and delegates, both today and overall. And the media, as you may have noticed from time to time in this election cycle, likes McCain an awful lot more than it likes Romney. Which means that if there's a spin war to be won tomorrow, don't put your money on Mitt."

LEST WE FORGET: If Nick Cannon Thinks We Can...

The new celebrity-studded Obama music video, "Yes We Can," has already received over 1.2 million views on YouTube, but The Onion's Amelie Gillette is not impressed:

"I'm sure that Wil.i.am intended for this video to inspire thoughts like, 'Wow. Yes we can,' and 'Change is possible.' But instead it inspired thoughts like, 'Is that Claire's boyfriend who died on Six Feet Under?' 'The guy from October Road can play guitar?' 'Why is Nick Cannon always everywhere?' 'Whatever happened to a simple round of "Kumbaya?"', and 'Can you stop trilling for five seconds so I can hear what Obama's trying to say?'

Still, it's good to see that Scarlett Johansson can act like a real singer. She has those big headphones on her ears and everything."

Posted by Ian Faerstein at February 5, 2008 01:00 PM