February 13, 2008

2/13: A New Frontrunner?

Liberal bloggers were impressed by Barack Obama's substantial margins of victory in VA, MD, and DC, and many now consider him the favorite to win the Dem nod. However, it remains to be seen whether Obama can duplicate his success in attracting Latinos and non-college graduates in OH and TX. A new SurveyUSA poll showing Hillary Clinton leading Obama 56-39% in OH has reminded many bloggers that the Dem contest is far from over.

The GOP contest, on the other hand, is all but over. Conservative bloggers are now spending less time discussing how John McCain can placate his base and are instead focusing on how McCain can defeat Obama or HRC. Many righty bloggers want McCain to ignore Mike Huckabee and start aggressively defining his future Dem opponent, as the AZ senator did during his victory speech last night. In many ways, the general election has already begun.

DEM FIELD: Dealing With Delegates

Open Left's Chris Bowers repeats his call for Dem superdelegates to support the candidate who wins the most pledged delegates: "As a party that carriers the banner of democracy, we need to uphold those values in our own party. Super delegates should respect the will of primary voters and caucus goers."

TPM's Josh Marshall takes a more nuanced view: "[Superdelegates] are divided roughly evenly between elected officials and members of the Democratic National Committee...To me it seems like there's at least much more of a rationale for the officeholders to be super delegates, though the rationale might not be sufficient in any case. Basically, if you're a national Democratic officeholder, you've been elected by (mostly) Democrats at a very high level, often many times...and you also have the real world experience to know what it takes to run and win as a Democrat in your state...I think it would be very questionable if the Supers as a whole decided the nomination against a clear (and 'clear' is important here) majority of the pledged delegates. But I can see the rationale for having officeholders like these in the mix as a leavening."

Bowers also thinks that FL's delegates should count: "When the DNC credentials committee takes authority over the matter in mid-June, they should, at that time, approve Florida's delegation as determined by the results of the January 29th primary (and then, at that time, those delegates should be included in the running delegate totals). There is no compelling reason to void the results of Florida's primary that does not also apply to the primaries and caucuses of dozens of other states nationwide...The DNC's punishment has achieved its goal, as Florida has been denied a major role in the horserace to date."

MyDD's Jerome Armstrong thinks both FL's and MI's delegates should count: "[Rabid] supporters may claim that I am saying Florida and Michigan should be counted because I'm a paid shill for Clinton...It has nothing to do with Clinton, and everything to do with the principle."

OBAMA: Running Up The Scoreboard

The Carpetbagger Report's Steve Benen: "Most of the political world expected Barack Obama to have a good day yesterday, when Democrats in Virginia, Maryland, and the District of Columbia went to the polls. But it's fair to say that few expected him to do this well."

AMERICAblog's Joe Sudbay: "The margin of Obama's victories tonight in D.C., Maryland and especially Virginia are nothing short of astonishing. He won across demographics. And, he beat expectations -- even the very high expectations that were being set over the past couple of days. Today, it looks like Democrats are coalescing around their new front runner. Let's keep this in perspective. Just a couple months ago, no one was predicting this outcome. Barack Obama went up against the Clinton machine, and their aura of invincibility. Yet, he keeps winning."

Daily Kos' Devilstower: "Barack Obama didn't just beat Hillary in Virginia. He didn't just get more votes than John McCain. In 'red' Virginia, Obama got 142,000 more votes than all the Republicans put together...He kicked butt, took names, and did it with both hands tied behind his back."

TalkLeft's Big Tent Democrat, in contrast, wasn't impressed by Obama's victories: "Obama has yet to prove he can win some of the key states' primaries, states Dems need in a general election...He has lost every contested big state primary except his home state -- California, Massachusetts, and New Jersey particularly. And yes, he lost Florida's vote. Winning one of Texas, Ohio or Pennsylvania seems a fair test for Obama's chances in a general election. I believe it is the last barrier to cross. Can Obama do it?"

Meanwhile, The Huffington Post's Bob Cesca thinks Obama will win the Dem nod: "I hate making predictions, but if all things remain normal -- no gaffes, no scandals, no major world events -- the only way Senator Clinton can lock this nomination is if she either, 1) negotiates behind the scenes for more superdelegates, or 2) doesn't quit and takes the fight to the convention."

OBAMA II: Where's The Partisanship?

While the netroots have generally coalesced behind Obama, several prominent liberal bloggers worry that the IL senator isn't sufficiently partisan:

Open Left's Matt Stoller reveals that he grudgingly voted for Obama in the DC primary: "I'm voting for Obama even though I have serious reservations. I can't vote for Clinton because she voted for the war and doesn't think it was a mistake."

Jerome Armstrong explains why he voted for HRC over Obama: "What compelled me to vote for Clinton was looking at someone that seemed practical about the battle we have on our hands and looking ready to engage in the fight -- I'd rather be part of the fight than be told to stay on the sidelines because I'm too partisan (I like my tent democrats just as wide as they are big). Clinton's not my first choice, but Obama's approach seems more suited to when we are cleaning up after the battle; of the two, Clinton's got a closer resonance with what progressives need now as a President."

Big Tent Democrat still doesn't trust Obama: "Tim Russert says 20% of [VA] voters were Independent and 8% were Republicans who crossed over to vote in the primary. More than 70% of these voters went for Obama -- The cross-over candidate [...] Russert says Obama will tout this as a sign of his electability in November, that he can win Republicans and Independents. I take it as another sign he's a compromiser and not a fighter for a progressive agenda."

HRC endorsee/ex-Amb. Joe Wilson makes a similar critique of Obama in The Huffington Post: "Contrary to the myth of [Obama's] campaign, 2008 is not the year for transcendental transformation. The task for the next administration will be to repair the damage done by eight years of radical rule...Obama's overtures to Republicans, or 'Obamacans' as the Senator calls them, is a substitute for true national unity based on a substantive program. His marginal appeals have marginally helped him in caucuses in Republican states that Democrats won't win in the general election. But his vapid rhetoric will not withstand the winds of November. His efforts will be correctly seen by the Republican leadership as a sign of weakness to be exploited."

CLINTON: Carry Me Ohio

Several liberal bloggers are discussing the new SurveyUSA poll of OH LVs, which shows HRC leading Obama 56-39%:

MyDD's Todd Beeton: "I think it's fair to say that this represents Obama's low watermark and it's Clinton's job to keep the margin as close to these numbers as she possibly can. As only 2% of voters self-identify as undecided, it looks as though the poll pushed leaners, which I think is good news for Clinton. In other words: most people (69%) say they've already made up their minds and of those Clinton holds a strong lead (59%-39%) and a lot of the voters Obama would be targeting in the coming weeks are already telling pollsters they prefer him."

TPM's Eric Kleefeld: "There's no telling what happens in the next few weeks as the campaign truly hits Ohio in earnest. But Hillary definitely seems to be starting from a good position. Now she just has to maintain or even extend it."

The Atlantic's Matthew Yglesias: "Considering the convincing nature of Clinton's wins in states like Arizona, Oklahoma, and California I think you need to assume she'll win [Ohio] until we see some kind of poll offering clear evidence to the contrary. Obama's put together a string of impressive wins, but it's still the case that in the Democratic Party women outnumber men, whites outnumber blacks, working class people outnumber college educated professionals, and senior citizens outnumber under-thirties. Under the circumstances, Clinton continues to be in a strong position."

MCCAIN: Ready To Rumble

Just as McCain began looking ahead to the general election during his victory speech last night, so are conservative bloggers:

Power Line's Paul Mirengoff: "Now, McCain can focus on the larger tasks ahead of him -- putting together an expanded organization, mending fences with conservatives, and developing his campaign themes for the general election. If that means losing the occasional race to Huckabee (assuming Huck persists), so be it."

Captain's Quarters' Ed Morrissey: "Expect to hear McCain repeatedly dismiss Obama's platitudes on 'hope' and get him into a debate on specific policies. Obama will lose that fight, but if he doesn't engage McCain, he'll look like an empty suit. McCain has a lot more time to focus on Obama than the reverse, and he can do some damage to Obama's momentum among independents while Obama tries to finish off Hillary Clinton."

Meanwhile, Townhall's Matt Lewis offers McCain some advice: "I've written about this in the past, but as Barack Obama emerges as the likely Democratic nominee, I think it's even more important than ever to make sure John McCain doesn't lose his 'maverick' brand, as he prepares for the General Election. It's important to note that McCain's maverick status doesn't stem from his ideology, it comes from his style (in many ways, this is the same phenomenon that makes Obama popular). So I am not advocating that McCain become more liberal in order to become more popular. What I am saying, however, is that it is vital McCain remain 'authentic.' To be perceived as pandering -- to anyone -- would be lethal for him, because it destroys his brand."

Commentary's Jennifer Rubin agrees: "McCain, no doubt, would have preferred a huge margin of victory [in VA]. Some will contend this is proof positive of something -- his weakness in the South or with conservatives or with people who listen to talk radio. But realistically he is on track to win the nomination and should not take the bait, redesign his persona and run hard right. If he did, he would lose his 'straight talk' image and do damage to his general election prospects."

AmSpec Blog's Quin Hillyer has a slightly different take: "The analysts say that McCain has a problem because the more he changes his positions to placate conservatives, the more he costs himself among independents; and vice versa. They miss the point. What McCain needs to do is less to move rightward on issues (although that would be nice) than to make amends in TONE and RESPECT to conservatives."

HUCKABEE: Overstaying His Welcome?

RedState's Pejman Yousefzadeh thinks it's time for Huckabee to go: "Huckabee's insistence on remaining in the race increasingly looks like a joke. I haven't minded having him in thus far because if he serves as a punching bag for McCain every week and allows the latter to bask in electoral glory and valuable free media, he will actually be doing McCain something of a service. But Huckabee seems bound and determined to try to prolong the Republican Presidential race. This, by all accounts, is making the McCain people mad and will interfere with party unity. One wonders what Huckabee will get out of this, save enmity."

NRO's Jim Geraghty: "It's a free country, and Huckabee can stay in as long as he likes. But I suspect the question, 'what's the point?' is going to get steadily louder in the coming weeks..."

Jennifer Rubin doesn't mind Huckabee's persistence: "So long as McCain racks up healthy wins, ignores the exit polls (and the wrongheaded commentary which flows from it) and begins, as he did last night, to formulate a general-election message, there seems to be little harm done in waiting several more weeks for Huckabee formally to leave the race."

AmSpec Blog's James Antle: "I think a larger motivation [for Huckabee] is to establish himself as an undisputed leader of the populist, socially conservative wing of the party. There is an opening and he can fill it at relatively little cost to McCain, who is getting closer to clinching anyway. Huckabee hasn't really gone negative against McCain but he has established himself as a spokesman for Republicans the other candidates haven't reached and professional conservatives don't understand."

THOUGHT OF THE DAY: Obama, Sui Generis

Chris Bowers thinks Obama's political coalition is utterly unique:

"The identity coalition Obama has put together appears to be unique to him, and probably cannot be replicated by other candidates in future presidential primaries. The diverse group of supporters listed in the second paragraph of this article includes both working class African-Americans and creative class whites, both LieberDems and the very liberal, both online activists and establishment media pundits from the Village, both new voters and highly engaged grassroots activists. It is a pretty odd grouping, and not particularly stable under anyone who does not exude Obama's particular characteristics: new enough and with the sort of rhetoric to still be a bit of an empty vessel for both centrists and progressives, a background that appeals to both African-Americans and creative class whites, relative youth, and an opponent against whom progressives, conservatives, and establishment media types (but not establishment political types) are willing to organize."

LEST WE FORGET: Stop F---ing With The Crust!

The Onion's Amelie Gillette adds "pizza innovations" to her list of "Things That Still Exist, But Shouldn't":

"Pizza Hut has a new 'Crunchy Cheesy Crust Pizza' (aka 'The Redundant Pizza'), which means that Dominos is surely only a few short months away from debuting their new 'Pizza-y Pizza-Crust Pizza.' You would think that pizza chains would have it pretty easy: making a simple dish with just enough room for individual, signature variations in terms of sauce and cheese and toppings. But instead, they're always pointlessly fiddling with the crust.

I'm sure someone (Papa John's?) is hard at work right now on a Confetti Crust Pizza (a braided crust stuffed with flakes of edible gold and garlic that burst into your mouth when you bite into it)."

Posted by Ian Faerstein at February 13, 2008 12:59 PM