November 02, 2007

11/2: Dems Biggest Ally In '08

The Washington Postdocuments rising concerns among Dems about immigration as an effective wedge issue in '08, but we do not think they should be concerned. As The Corner's Mark Krikorian points out, DHS sec. Michael Chertoff was quite willing to "Ride[] to the Rescue" of NY Gov. Eliot Spitzer when his drivers' license for undocumented migrants plan faced complications complying with the federal Real ID Act. GOPers will no doubt get some mileage out of the immigration issue, but it is going to be impossible for them to fully capitalize on it as long as Pres. Bush is the titular head of their party.

DEM FIELD: Carrots And Sticks

Reactions to Barack Obama's "New Iran Approach, floated in 11/02's New York Times are still filtering in, but it appears Hillary Clinton had the upper hand among the more undecided elements of the netroots for much of 11/01. The Huffington Post's Sam Stein reported early in the day that Obama declined to sign a letter signed by thirty other Dem Senators "warning President Bush not to take offensive military action against Iran without the consent of Congress." The letter "was spearheaded" by Sen. Jim Webb (D-VA) and was signed by Clinton. Stein received the following statement from Team Obama on the letter:

Senator Obama admires Senator Webb and his sincere and tireless efforts on this issue. But it will take more than a letter to prevent this administration from using the language contained within the Kyl-Lieberman resolution to justify military action in Iran. This requires a legislative answer and Senator Obama intends to propose one.

MyDD's Todd Beeton tracks the developments and comments: "The thing is, there is a legislative proposal out there already, the Webb Amendment (co-sponsored by Clinton, you'll recall,) which would require Bush to get congressional approval before using any force on Iran. ... it seems to me that Obama's absence from the list of signers actually undermines his credibility on the issue further. He did, after all, miss the vote on the original resolution, although he did say subsequently that he would have voted No."

The Left Coaster's Jeff Dinelli (who is more pro-HRC) blogs: "This, my friends, should be a freakin' Deal Breaker for Obama. For the past month he has been ruthlessly attacking Clinton for her vote on Kyl/Lieberman. Did the amendment take us a step closer to war, Sen. Obama? Then why the hell did you refuse to sign this letter? ... Can someone please explain what the hell is up with Obama? No vote on the MoveOn.org ad. No vote on Kyl/Lieberman, which is Soooo important to him he hasn't talked about anything else in the last month. No signature on this Webb letter. ... Where are this guy's convictions?"

Later TPM's Greg Sargent looks at dueling Obama/Clinton campaign memos on Iran. From Obama's:

The current debate about the wisdom of Senator Clinton's support for the Kyl-Lieberman amendment points up significant differences in Senator Obama's approach to the use of force in Iraq as compared with Senator Clinton's approach.

From Clinton's:

Stagnant in the polls and struggling to revive his once-buoyant campaign, Senator Obama has abandoned the politics of hope and embarked on a journey in search of a campaign issue to use against Senator Clinton. Nevermind that he made the very argument he is now criticizing back in November 2006. Nevermind that he co-sponsored a bill designating the Iranian Revolutionary Guard a global terrorist group back in April...

Sargent comments: "This latest "memo match" is in sync with the larger battle between the two candidates, in which the Obama camp argues that there are real differences between the candidates, while the Hillary camp claims that Obama's efforts to do this are largely (but not exclusively) self-contradictory attack politics."

Obama partisans are very pleased with his 11/02 NYT interview. Mark Kleiman highlights the following from Obama: "We are willing to talk about certain assurances in the context of them showing some good faith. I think it is important for us to send a signal that we are not hell bent on regime change, just for the sake of regime change, but expect changes in behavior and there are both carrots and there are sticks available to them for those changes in behavior."

Kleiman proudly comments: "I wonder how long the 'Obama is running an excessively cautious campaign' meme will survive moves like this one? Too long, I suspect." Matthew Yglesias also links and adds: "Barack Obama opens up a clear policy difference with Hillary Clinton ... This doesn't necessarily sound incredibly different from Clinton's strategy ... but it's pretty different. The difference, in particular, is that as Flynt Leverett has argued in a non-campaign context the "grand bargain" approach might work, whereas Clinton's approach won't work."

MyDD's Beeton looks at Obama's competing legislation on Iran and blogs: "I'll be curious to see how this is substantively different than the Webb amendment and thus, whether it will actually get a floor vote; I suspect it won't and if that's the case, I'm not sure how this helps Obama. Sure it's more substantive than a letter but if it's essentially the same as an amendment that Senator Clinton co-sponsored, isn't he susceptible to claims that he's just playing follow the leader?"

CLINTON: Don't Tell Anyone But We Also Love The View

For the most part, the netroots seem to be rallying around Hillary Clinton in light of MSM narratives that she stumbled 10/30 in the face of combined attacks by her Dem rivals. DailyKos' founder Markos Moulitsas admits 10/30 was "not her best performance" but wouldn't call it a 'fumble' either. More kos: "The same people who have been telling us for years that Hillary was inevitable, are now apparently hoping for a real contest. If so, then good. We need one of those anyway. Maybe, if we're lucky, we'll even get Hillary to explain to us why she wants to be president."

Fire Dog Lake's Swopa responds: "Markos is dead wrong when he says today that Clinton hasn't provided "a rationale for her candidacy" - her rationale is her experience, combined with her ability to take a punch. And that appeals to millions of ordinary Democrats who not only know how much heavy lifting will be needed to get America out of the ditch, but also remember what happened to John Kerry, Howard Dean, and Al Gore."

Others defending Clinton include:

• The Left Coaster's paradox: "Even I will vote for Hillary Clinton if this keeps up much longer, men who abuse women because they can't get their own lives together give me nothing but the utmost loathing and disgust, especially when they use Republican talking points to do it."
• Talk Left's Big Tent Democrat: "We need a little straight talk from Hillary's opponents on REAL progressive issues. There is no doubt that Hillary Clinton does not provide the most straightforward answers. But those folks living in glass houses need to clean up their act before they start casting stones. I want to hear about issues first. Not Hillary. Speak to the issues and then contrast with Clinton. Do not put the cart before the horse."
• TAPPED's Garance Franke Ruta: "A source inside the Hillary Clinton campaign says that they regularly watch ABC's The View (I hear it's one of those shows popular with the ladies). That being the case, Joy Behar must have made them very happy this afternoon."

OBAMA: Will They Be Home For Christmas?

The Huffington Post's Denise Wheeler and Alycia Dolan look at the effect the 1/3 IA Caucus date may have on Barack Obama's chances: "Nearly a third of the University of Iowa's 30,000 students come from out of state, as do 20 percent of Iowa State's enrollment of 27,000. ... Although a majority of the out-of-state students live in neighboring states such as Kansas, Minnesota, Nebraska and Illinois, and many of whom are within a half a day's drive to Iowa, there's no guarantee they'll pull the plug on their winter break and make the trek back in time. ... And it's precisely the youth vote that could make or break the chances of an insurgent candidate like Obama."

Also at HuffPo, Neil Nagraj links to a Project for Excellence in Journalism study on '08 coverage and argues: "Far from being supportive of the Obama candidacy, the press coverage has hurt his campaign by refusing to focus on substance and confirming false charges of inexperience against him."

DODD: Why Are You The Coolest Candidate Ever?

Chris Dodd posts three questions he wishes he had been asked at 10/30's debate at The Huffington Post: 1. Less than two weeks ago, Senator Dodd, you announced you would filibuster any FISA legislation that included retroactive immunity. Why are you opposed to amnesty? 2. Do you think waterboarding is torture? 3. You were the first Democratic Senator to announce your opposition to Michael Mukasey's nomination. Why do you think he isn't qualified to be Attorney General?

RICHARDSON: Staying Out Of Iran By Getting Out Of Iraq

Bill Richardson blogs at The Huffington Post: "Senator Clinton voted to enable George Bush when she voted for the Kyl-Lieberman Amendment. Senator Obama, skipped the Iran vote entirely. ... Saber-rattling is not a good way to get the Iranians to cooperate and work with us for peace. But it is a tried and true method of laying the groundwork for another war -- a war that would be a disaster for the Middle East, for the United States and for the world. ... When it comes to Iraq, I want all the troops out, now. If the president won't do it, we need to convince Congress to stand up -- go to www.getourtroopsout.com to join us."

GIULIANI: Not Sam Brownback

Reactions to Sen. Norm Coleman (R-MN) endorsement of Rudy Giuliani include:

• Power Line's John Hinderaker: "I see this as a natural alliance of moderate, but strong-on-defense Republicans. Some will find significance in the fact that Coleman is pro-life; his endorsement may help Giuliani in that regard, although no one thinks of Coleman as a member of the "religious right." Maybe so, but I think it mostly reflects the fact that abortion is not the all-consuming issue among Republicans that many reporters want it to be."
• AmSpec Blog's Jennifer Rubin: "With Gov. Rick Perry, Tommy Thompson and now Coleman, Rudy may be making some headway in getting pro-life well known Republicans on board. It's not Sam Brownback, but it's a start."
• AmSpec's Philip Klein: "It must be pointed out that Coleman hasn't always been the favorite of conservatives, and is viewed as a moderate Republican. This year, he opposed the troop surge in Iraq and voted for SCHIP. His most recent ACU rating is 68. No doubt it's nice to have the endorsement, but I'm not sure it wins Giuliani much with conservatives."

ROMNEY: The Longer They Wait, How High Does The Bar For This Speech Get?

A "former Fred Thompson advisor known for his strong connections in the conservative Christian world" tells The Brody File that new Mitt Romney convert Bill Wichterman "will strongly encourage the former Massachusetts Governor to give a 'Mormon speech.'" Brody adds: "Anyhow, yes Romney needs to make the speech. Is this a no-brainer at this point?"

NM SEN: Looks Like They Got Their Man

The netroots are excited over news Rep. Tom Udall (D-NM) is reconsidering a run for retiring Sen. Pete Domenici's (R-NM) seat. Heath Haussamen goes as far as to report: "has moved beyond simply reconsidering whether he should run ... He's now trying to put the pieces in place for a Senate run." These developments come on top of news that LG Diane Denish will not run.

DailyKos' founder Markos Moulitsas comments: "I've got Research 2000 polling this Senate race next week, with results to follow the following week. We'll have a good idea if that SurveyUSA poll showing Udall blowing away the competition is solid, as well as the first numbers of a potential Denish candidacy (which will be important if Udall decides to pass after all)."

THOUGHT OF THE DAY: Why Do Dem Consultants Hate The Environment?

DailyKos' founder Markos Moulitsas posts email from an old friend complaining about the "deluge" in mail he gets after contributing to a candidate and comments:

It really is infuriating. I blame direct mail consultants who charge per piece sent. They must love these growing contributor lists because they get to send more crap to people who OBVIOUSLY prefer to donate online. I get direct mail from campaigns and it goes straight into the shredder and recycling bin. ... So here's what I'm going to do -- starting in December, I will NOT FUNDRAISE for any candidate who does not pledge to stop direct mail to people who contribute via ActBlue. ... It's a waste of money, and it's degrading to the environment. I'm tired of it. People are tired of it. And if campaigns won't listen, then I'm through with them.

LEST WE FORGET: You Get What You Pay For

The Corner's Jonah Goldberg links to The Telegraph's explanation for why they listed Frank Luntz as the 17th top conservative in America: "Close to Rudy Giuliani and John McCain, it would be hard to name a prominent GOP political operative or member of Congress of the last 20 years who has not been advised by Luntz."

Goldberg quips: "That may well be true. But it would be fairly easy to name a prominent GOP political operative or member of Congress who has never asked for Luntz's advice, but got it anyway."

Posted by Conn Carroll at November 2, 2007 12:44 PM