November 16, 2007

11/16: Not Dead Yet

In a 6/28 post titled "After McCain" we wrote: "Is there a single issue, outside of Iraq, that conservatives agree and identify McCain with? Short of a dramatic 180 degree turn on progress in Iraq, what series of events could possibly end in a McCain candidacy? With the Senate immigration bill now dead, McCain may be able to stabilize his downward spiral, but what on earth could possibly start moving his numbers in a positive direction?" Well guess what: even long time critics of the war are beginning to admit things are looking better. And, especially in NH, things are looking better for McCain too. If voters begin to believe that the surge (which John Edwards used to call 'McCain's surge') is working, then McCain could end up having the only 'war on terror' credentials strong enough to trump Rudy Giuliani.

DEM DEBATE: The Rich Get Richer

There were no K.O.'s last night, but most seemed to give the night to Hillary Clinton on points. Talking Points Memo's Josh Marshall blogs: "For me, there were three key moments in the debate -- the opening skirmish, which I think largely defined the debate, Hillary's answer to Campbell Brown's 'gender card' questions and the final tete a tete over Social Security. Of those three, two were Hillary's. Obama also had a moment when he went after Blitzer over his constant invocation of the presumption that no significant problems can ever be solved. But it was too fleeting."

Daily Kos readers gave Obama the win (26%), but HRC (20%) polled well above her last straw poll showing (9%). John Edwards under performed raking in only 17%.

DEBATE CLINTON: The Empire Strikes Back

Positive HRC reviews include:

• TAPPED's Adele Stan: "Hillary got a good one in just by saying Campbell Brown's first name when the one female questioner among the three asked the frontrunner what she meant in her address to the students of her alma mater ... Translation: Like, really, just between us girlfriends, are you gonna tell me you don't know what it means to crack an all-boys club?"
• Daily Kos' MissLaura: "Apparently Hillary Clinton's answer on gender is going to be the most replayed of the debate. And she did rock that answer."
• Taylor Marsh: "Hillary Clinton was on fire tonight and she came out with the energy and intent to prove to her opponents that she wants the job of president and she's going to fight for it. Fight she did tonight."
• TAPPED's Garance Franke-Ruta: "Clinton is back in business, and she's feeling fine. ... Whatever was going on over the past few weeks with Sen. Clinton now looks like a minor blip -- a change in the weather cold, rather than a sign of any deeper weakness. She's back to herself, and back to being in fine form. The tone for the rest of the debate is set."
• The Huffington Post's John Neffinger: "Unless there is a brief moment or two of Hillary being disagreeable right at the get-go, most of the memorable moments were pretty good for her."
• The Left Coaster's Jeff Dinelli: "Hillary was so prepared for the "Boys Club" non-issue that when Edwards followed by again claiming she's the only one taking lobbyist money he was loudly booed."
• The Plank's Noam Scheiber: "Hillary was back to her usual steady self after the brief vacation from history that was her previous performance. She made no mistakes, stuck up for herself when she had to, showed enough humanity to prove she's a member of the species."
• Talk Left's Jeralyn Merritt: "Favorite political line: Hillary saying she understands they're attacking her not because she's a woman but because she's ahead."

Less positive HRC takes:

• The Huffington Post's Robert Naiman: "It's very unfortunate, to say the least, that Senator Clinton is still pushing the claim that Iran is responsible for the deaths of U.S. soldiers in Iraq when even the Bush Administration is moving away from it."
• David Sirota: "In the video above, you will find a very short clip I put together after tonight's Democratic presidential debate. ... Really, what an offensive statement Clinton made to the millions of American and Mexican workers who lost their jobs and saw their wages destroyed thanks to NAFTA ... You want to talk about showing how utterly out of touch you are, that's how you do it - you laugh and say you barely remember the debate over the very trade deal that is destroying America's middle class."

DEBATE OBAMA: We'd Move To California For The In-n-Out Burgers

Positive Obama impressions include:

• IA Independent's Douglas Burns: "Barack Obama tonight turned in his strongest presidential debate performance and exposed a clear regional difference with front-runner Hillary Clinton. Is $97,000 a lot of money? In most of Obama's Illinois and just about all of Iowa the answer to that is "yes," which makes Obama's position on the question of whether to raise or lift the cap on Social Security taxes more reasonable to Hawkeye State voters than the New York shape-shifting of Clinton."
• Fire Dog Lake's Jane Hamsher: "'This is what I expect from Mitt Romney or Rudy Guliani ...' Obama had a good point in the midst of all that (i.e., those with the top 6% income are not exactly in the 'middle' of anything) but Jesus they booed him like he'd compared her to Hitler."
• The Plank's Josh Patashnik: "It may be shameless regional pandering, but Barack Obama might just have locked up my vote tonight when he was discussing illegal immigrants: 'They're coming here to work, not to go to the In-n-Out Burger.'"
• The Plank's Noam Scheiber: "He was focused, energized, tough, charismatic--pretty much everything the press had accused him of not being in previous debates. ... Like Hillary and Edwards before him, Obama did stumble somewhat over illegal immigrant driver's licenses, something Hillary's spinners gleefully highlighted after the debate."
• Andrew Sullivan: "Obama was a solid B+, started strongly and then petered out. He blew the illegal drivers' license question and the polarization question. He really is uneven in these things."
• TAPPED's Kate Sheppard: "I think Obama made a good point: Licenses are wedge issue. It's not about the licenses -- that's become an issue because states and municipalities are struggling with public safety issues in the absence of reasonable immigration policy."

Negative Obama takes include:

• Taylor Marsh: "Obama had a horrible time with the driver's license question, dodging it, which he knew the minute he answered was trouble, but it was completely convoluted and he couldn't get out of it."
• The Washington Monthly's Kevin Drum: "Obama on how he'd bring everyone together after he was elected: 'I would convene a continuous advisory meeting including both Democrats and Republicans.' A continuous advisory meeting? Yeesh."
• Daily Kos' Trapper John: "Wolfie, being a dick, presses on licenses. Obama equivocates, doesn't give yes or no answer. Wow. I can't believe it. He's right that it's trivial in the scheme of immigration policy, but he knows how this very issue and the failure to give the questioner a yes or no answer tripped up Hillary."
• TAPPED's Adele Stan: "Barack Obama just posed a challenge to Hillary Clinton on Social Security ... That, combined with Obama's weak answer on the question of driver's licenses for undocumented workers, seemed to leave the contest's Number 2 man somewhat diminished."
• Talk Left's Jeralyn Merritt: "Waffler: Obama playing slip and slide on drivers' licenses for the undocumented. Four chances and wouldn't answer the question."

DEBATE EDWARDS: Mud Supplier

• The Huffington Post's Glynnis Macnicol: "I think Edwards is functioning as a great foil for Hillary. He is supplying the "mud" so to speak that is entirely lacking from Obama, and gives her something to react against without having to take him on directly."
• Talk Left's Jeralyn Merritt: "Least likely to have gained new support: Edwards. But he gave a great answer in response to a question from the audience on racial profiling. Said when he is President, there will be no racial profiling, no illegal spying, no Guantanamo, no torture."
• The Plank's Noam Scheiber: "Edwards, he was his usual sharp self. He was solid when asked how he could accuse Hillary of double-talking after shifting his own position on several issues since 2004."

OBAMA: Crisis Over?

MyDD's Jonathan Singer caught up with Barack Obama in Mountain View, CA, and asked him why he used the word 'crisis' when talking about Social Security. From Obama: "It is a long-term problem. I know that people, including you, are very sensitive to the concern that we repeat anything that sounds like George Bush. But I have been very clear in fighting privatization. I have been adamant about the fact that I am opposed to it. What I believe is that it is a long-term problem that we should deal with now. And the sooner the deal with it then the better off it's going to be."

Singer comments: "In all it's not everything that I wanted to hear. But perhaps more importantly, Obama had the opportunity to hear that folks don't want him talking about a non-existent "crisis" in Social Security. And hopefully, he will pay heed to that sentiment."

The Washington Monthly's Kevin Drum links and adds: "This is clever rhetorical jujitsu. No, we bloggers don't like the Republican "crisis" framing, but we also hate the idea that Republicans often get to set the terms of debate in American politics. By casting his use of Republican language as a demonstration of independence from Republican language, Obama is demonstrating that he's really one of us even when he's supporting a policy we don't like. I'm impressed - even if I hope he doesn't make a habit of this."

IA CAUCUS: The Krugman Primary

IA Independent's T.M. Lindsey talked to Paul Krugman in Iowa City, IA:

• Iowa Independent: "What question would you ask the presidential candidates?"
• Krugman: "You have a pretty progressive program laid out. Why should I believe that you actually go through with it? How can I be sure that you're not just saying this to get the nomination? How are you going to overcome the power of money and deal with what will be a no-holds-barred, last-ditch-effort opposition from the Republicans? What will you do to fight for progressive issues?"
• Iowa Independent: What factors prompted or motivated you to ask these questions?
• Krugman: I'm concerned that Hillary Clinton is getting a whole lot of money from interest groups who think they are buying something. Barack Obama seems to me to have this tendency, looking for compromise where there is no compromise -- Social Security being the issue I'm really worked up about right now.
• Iowa Independent: What about Obama's plan for Social Security?
• Krugman: He's buying into the Republican language of a "Social Security crisis" and highlighting their talking points. They're wrong. He's looking for something that sounds like its reasonable middle ground. He's listening to inside-the-beltway pundits, but this is just the wrong issue.
• Iowa Independent: By doing this, do you think he's somehow compromising the progressive agenda?
• Krugman: I view it as more of a symptom. I know Obama would not privatize Social Security, but I believe that it's not a good sign that he would lend credence to the fear mongers.

GIULIANI: The 9/11less Candidate

Ad Age looks at Rudy Giuliani's first effort: "1. He embraces the fact he's from New York while pointing out the common perception held by many Red Staters -- it was, indeed, a hellhole; 2. That of course, lets him brag about cleaning up the place, which made New York a little bit like the rest of the country; 3. He does all this without mentioning 9/11; 4. He makes another obvious point, but one often overlooked by candidates. He says he's not perfect. ... It's not going to win him any fans in NYC. In fact, it's likely to drive them insane with rage and fury. But those aren't the people he's trying to convince."

Campaign Standard's Matthew Continetti links and comments: "Wheaton's third point - that nowhere in the ad does Giuliani mention September 11, 2001 - is key. Here's a prediction: When Giuliani does put up a television spot that mentions 9/11, a political firestorm will break out."

HUCKABEE: Apparently Taxes Are An Important Issue In A GOP Primary

Soren Dayton looks at CBS polling out of IA and comments: "The numbers suggest something more. Huckabee is way out ahead of Mitt Romney on 'is a conservative', abortion, and 'shares my values.' But on 'agree on issues', immigration, and 'right experience', Huckabee is struggling places. I suspect that the 'issues' thing is really about taxes. There has been a lot of mail going out, phone calls, and people have run ads against Huckabee. Huckabee's experience number can be moved with some good bio ads. I am however, struck by Romney's abortion number. This confirms the word on the street from Iowa. Romney's voter base is the country-clubbers. They may well be moderates."

Campaign Standard's Matthew Continetti adds: "Romney has the money and the will power to make sure likely Iowa Republican caucus-goers know about Huckabee's differences with movement conservatives on tax and immigration issues. This would hurt Huckabee's chances ... and also open space for a movement conservative whom lately people seem to have forgotten about."

On that anti-Huckabee taxes YouTube, AmSpec Blog's John Tabin blogs: "in it, Mike Huckabee pleads with the Arkansas state legislature for tax increases on anything they might be willing to tax. Huckabee responded to this by falsely claiming that he was only asking for tax hikes to cover education spending that was mandated by an Arkansas Supreme Court decision. In fact, the special session dealing with the court's mandate came several months after the speech."

PAUL: More Than An Eccentric Libertarian

Power Line's Scott Johnson comments on Andrew Walden's "The Ron Paul campaign and its neo-Nazi supporters" article: "Before catching up earlier this week with some of the information that Walden collects in this column, I thought that Paul was simply an eccentric libertarian. I was mistaken."

ROMNEY: Anti-Flavor Of The Month

Hugh Hewitt plugs the transcript of his 11/15 interview with Mitt Romney with excerpts including: "

• HH: Mike Huckabee's the flavor of the month. He surged up in Iowa. What are the differences between you and Governor Huckabee?
• MR: Well, you know, we have the views that are similar or the same with regards to abortion and same sex marriage, but we feel very differently about subjects like taxes and immigration.

The Brody File blogs: "The Romney campaign may be disappointed because they didn't get the endorsement from National Right to Life but maybe the organization had a look at the following videotape. If you go about three and a half minutes in, Romney is seen distancing himself from being endorsed by Massachusetts Citizens for Life during a debate while he was running for Governor in 2002. ... This is what is known as political baggage. It also speaks directly to why Romney has some problems with pro-lifers, especially at the grassroots level."

THOMPSON: A Buffet Buffet

The Corner's Larry Kudlow previewed his 11/15 interview with Fred Thompson: "The former Tennessee senator was in good form. He attacked Warren Buffet's tax-hike proposal on the rich as totally wrong, and Buffet himself as nothing more than a mouthpiece for the Democratic party. He agreed with Dick Armey that the GOP will lose if it departs from the first principles of limited government and lower tax rates."

Also at The Corner, Ramesh Ponnuru defends Thompson's social security plans from Brookings claims that his proposed price indexing "would break the historic pact with senior citizens." Ponnuru blogs: "Wage indexing, the status quo policy, started only in 1977. So getting rid of it would not break any promise made when the system was created."

THOMPSON II: Somebody Somewhere Must Have Found This Endorsement Credible, Right?

The National Right to Life Committee continues to take heat for their Thompson endorsement. Townhall's Hugh Hewitt highlights criticism from The Plank's Chris Orr. Orr looks at NRLC exec. dir. David O'Steen's Thompson as "best positioned" to beat Rudy Giuliani explanation and comments: "I hope this is a (highly lame) rationale for a decision that was made on other grounds, because the alternative is that the folks at NRLC have all lost their minds. It's not merely that Mitt Romney is vastly better positioned to beat Giuliani for the nomination than Thompson; at this point, you could probably make the case that even John McCain and Mike Huckabee have a better shot."

Daniel Larison was less kind: "It's official: the rationale for the NRLC's endorsement of Fred Thompson makes no sense. It would be one thing to endorse Thompson on the grounds that he has a solid voting record, or that he is more reliable and trustworthy than the other leading candidates. But this appeal to his potential as the Bane of Giuliani seems as wrong as it gets."

The Brody File shares relevant emails from his inbox:

• From Pam: The NRLC endorsement of Fred really fried me! Not only because I thought Romney was the best choice, but because Thompson is anything but a true-blue lifer.
• From Kathleen: It should've been Huckabee! He's so clear and consistent on his stand. Thompson hasn't always been so...
• From Anonymous: Fred Thompson may say he is personally pro-life, but his conversion has not gone far enough to the point where he is willing to LEAD the nation toward the day that we can end abortion on demand. He specifically has rejected the Human Life Amendment.
• From Chris: I can't tell you how disappointed and disgusted I am by this endorsement. ... Mike Huckabee, who is constantly moving up in the polls, was there for the taking. They could've rallied around the true pro life candidate, but they sold out and endorsed a former abortion rights lobbyist who opposes a federal ban on abortion.

THOUGHT OF THE DAY: So Long And Thanks For All The Fish

Today marks the last day of our tenure as Blogometer. So instead of inflicting someone's elses thoughts on you for the 3000th time, we'd like to share our thoughts on the most crucial issue this nation faces: the travesty that is the Bowl Championship Series. We could harp on how all of the university presidents in the major conferences are thieves and liars for propping up this sham, but instead we want to offer a solution, so here goes.

The Sun Belt and Conference USA would merge into a mega conference. On Christmas Day the WAC champ would play the Mountain West champ in Las Vegas and the MAC champ would play the ConferenceUSA/SunBelt champ in Orlando. On New Years the Pac 10 and Big Ten champs would play in the Rose Bowl, the Big 12 and ACC champs would play in the Orange Bowl, the SEC and Big East champs would play in the Sugar Bowl, and the winners of the Christmas Day games would square off in the Fiesta Bowl. The following would week would feature two semi-final games and the next week would be the national champion.

This plan preserves the importance of in season conference rivalry games (since playoff spots are given only to conference champs), offers every team a chance at the title, settles the championship on the field, and still allows all the big conference non-champions to participate in that huge slate of meaningless bowls (which, since we have a problem, we would still watch). Of course all this leaves out Notre Dame, but really, they need to suck it up and join a conference (we suggest they take Navy and Army and join the Big East).

LEST WE FORGET: Speaking Of The NCAA...

Deadspin enjoyed First Read's Hillary Clinton as UNLV circa '91. Deadspin the extends the analogy to the rest of the field: "Namely, Hillary is Larry Johnson of UNLV, Obama is one of the Duke guys (back when Duke was likable) and John Edwards is Bobby Hurley. (We suspect this makes Kucinich a latter-day Josh Heytvelt.) We're not sure we understand the analogy, but we loved reading about the UNLV Larry Johnson. Man, that guy, when we were that age, seemed like the most unstoppable force on earth; it almost seemed sadistic to force those skinny white boys to bump up against him. Sorry, we'll say it: We miss Jerry Tarkanian. We really do."

Posted by Conn Carroll at November 16, 2007 12:36 PM