November 12, 2007

11/12: You Win Some, You Lose Some

The story of Barack Obama's entire relationship with the netroots could be seen in the mere nine hours that encompassed his 11/10 Jefferson-Jackson Dinner speech and his 11/11 Meet the Press performance. As much as they love the charisma he exudes when on stage by himself, and as much as they like his anti-Washington change message, he continues to disappoint on important issues to the community. First among them: Social Security. The netroots (Talking Points Memo in particular) spent a considerable amount of effort in '05 arguing that Social Security is not in crisis. Obama only losses support among bloggers when he frames his plans based on the assumption that is in serious peril.

Perhaps more damaging though is the loss of Obama's credibility as an anti-Iraq war leader. We first noticed chinks in the Obama-Iraq armor when we noticed a Sen. Russ Feingold (D-WI) press aide making sure Daily Kos readers knew some pro-Obama statements made by Feingold 3/06 did not apply to Obama's more recent Senate record on the war. Watching MTP 11/11 David Sirota blogs: "Obama wasn't just silent in 2004 on the war, he was silent in 2005, too. ... His people admit he could have been the moral leader against it, but decided not to, essentially out of deference to the Senate club's etiquette." We admit to having a overly netfocussed take on WH '08, but we believe that if Obama had Feingold's Senate record on Social Security and Iraq, this race would be a lot a closer.

DEM FIELD: If The MSM Wants A Race, They Will Get A Race

Looking at pre- and post- 10/30 debate polling, Open Left's Chris Bowers blogs: "Clinton is down, and her supporters seem to have moved to other candidates at roughly the same proportions as those candidates stand in the polls. ... it seems that Clinton was dropping a bit even before the debate. ... This tells me two things. First, there is a significant amount of potential movement left in the early state electorates, and a well-executed campaign combined with a little luck can still defeat Clinton ... Second, this is going to be a long and painful general election campaign no matter which Democrat wins, since the established media is still as potent as ever. Any notion that we have this general election in the bag, or that we have made significant inroads as an influence competitor to the established media, need to be strongly reconsidered now."

Commenting on similar data, MyDD's Todd Beeton writes: "Clinton still holds significant and largely unchanged leads on the experience and electability questions ... Obama has closed the gap on the "Able to bring change" question considerably ... Also, while this question wasn't asked in September, so there's no trendline, the Clinton team has got to be worried about the responses to the "Who's most trustworthy" question in the November poll. Here Obama leads with 26% to Clinton's and Edwards's 19%. This is where the whole "double talk" narrative may have really hurt her.

CLINTON: Amateur Hour

Hillary Clinton came in for only light netroots criticism on news that her campaign planted a questioner at a campaign stop in Newton, IA. Crooks and LiarsNicole Belle writes: "Now, I personally find the whole notion of planting reporters ridiculously cowardly on either side of the aisle, but the hypocrisy of these right wingers kills me. After all, if the media starts to castigate Hillary for planted questions, then they'd really have to respond to their own complacency as far as loyalty oaths to attend Bush town hall meetings and that most famous of planted reporters: Jeff Gannon."

Taylor Marsh adds: "Whether it's "at least one question" or "questions" as ABC reports, this is as stupid as it gets. An amateur mistake that you wouldn't expect from the Clinton team. The campaign will have to take this one on the chin. They deserve to."

Daily Kos' TomP wonders: "I wonder how long this has been going on? How many questions were planted? Remember Yearly Kos? A few people who attended her session told me that it looked like the questioners were pre-selected at her break out session. ... Why does this matter? It's a funny story, but by itself does not mean a lot. Campaigns try to manage their message."

CLINTON II: Percussionists For Hillary

Reporting from the Des Moines, IA, Veterans Memorial Auditorium on the Jefferson-Jackson Dinner Garance Franke-Ruta comments on Hillary Clinton and her supporters: "Could Hillary Clinton have been any more stilted? I sat myself in the chilly balcony area with her supporters, where her junior campaign staff refused to say anything to me when I tried to make friendly small talk, not even telling me what they did, and the on cue beating of yellow noise-makers provided a background of loud, impersonal percussion. Her supporters had the miscellaneous appearance of the genuinely downtrodden or socially forgotten, unlike the hale and hearty college students and lively, well-to-do middle-class families in Obama's sections. Other than a few chants of 'Hillary, Hillary,' her supporters restricted themselves to beating their noise-makers mechanically."

OBAMA: Best With Stage To Himself

Netroots reaction to Barack Obama's J-J Dinner speech were uniformly positive:

• MyDD's Todd Beeton: "Obama clearly had the best speech last night. What I liked most about it was that Obama finally seemed to find the right balance between being a unity candidate ... and throwing anti-Republican red meat to the base while at the same time actually expressing pride in being a Democrat. ... Did you notice that not once did Obama use his tired 'turn the page' line? ... Last night he debuted a much better slogan: 'change that America can believe in.' This line takes Obama's two strengths, the perception that he's a candidate of change and that he's honest and trustworthy, and merges them."
• Garance Franke-Ruta: "Barack Obama, on the other hand, finally gave the speech his supporters have been waiting for him to give all year. If anyone comes out of this dinner with The Big Mo, it will be him."
• Matthew Yglesias: "This seemed very strong to me. At times Obama's had difficulty combining a sufficient degree of partisan outrage against George W. Bush with an articulation of the idea that merely returning to the pre-Bush status quo isn't good enough. At the Jefferson-Jackson dinner, he threaded the needle pretty nicely."
• TNR's Michael Crowley: "Barack Obama's speech at tonight's Jefferson-Jackson dinner in Iowa took him back to the roots of his stardom. ... Obama appeared onstage alone, before a roaring auditorium crowd, delivering an oratorically ambitious speech. ... Obama also had the advantage of speaking last, giving his appearance an extra air of crescendo."
• Andrew Sullivan: "I also believe that it is good for the republic that the Democratic party regain its nerve and its soul again. Only Obama can do that. Only he still believes.
• IA Independent's Douglas Burns: "With more than 9,000 people in attendance Obama earned the loudest ovations, most sustained applause, and when he was first introduced, near the beginning of the dinner, the auditorium hit its energy apex. ... In the western reaches of the balcony Obama supporters filled the arena with timed back-and-forth chants of 'fired up, ready to go.'"

Despite Obama campaign insistence otherwise, some in the community claimed significant numbers of Obama supporters had been bussed in from IL. The Left Coaster's Jeff Dinelli: "Last week I noticed locals inviting people to sign up for a November 10th bus trip to Iowa. It was a puzzling idea, since the University of Illinois football team wasn't playing in Iowa yesterday ... Someone told me it was "some kind of a political trip," so I called around to a couple of Democratic offices and found out it was a Barack Obama supporter trip to the Jefferson Jackson fundraiser in Des Moines."

IA Independent's Burns also noticed some IL influence: "When Obama addressed the crowd, near the end of the night, he received some strong applause when he mentioned his experience in Chicago -- a clear sign that some had made the trip from the Windy City. ... The Obama campaign should have had its people remain silent during any reference to Chicago. Minor thing, though."

OBAMA II: The Social Security 'Crisis' Crisis

As great as Obama was 11/10, his 11/11 Meet the Press performance reminded many why Obama has failed to consolidate netroots support behind him. The two biggest issues hurting Obama: his claim that Social Security is in crisis, and his lack of leadership against the Iraq war. On Social Security:

• The Huffington Post's Dave Johnson: "Barack Obama is echoing the right's destructive narrative about Social Security being in crisis. ... Barack Obama, please realize that you are assisting the right's efforts to get rid of Social Security. Their strategy is to make the public think that the program is in trouble and then sweep in with their "solution." ... IS your heart in the right place? Social Security is not in trouble. Stop saying it is."
• Taylor Marsh: "Anyone thinking Mr. Obama is the anti-Hillary, so to speak, needs to pay attention and find another candidate. Quickly. ... Obama ... wants to hold hands with the wingnuts to save some fantasy Social Security 'crisis.'"
• Talk Left's Big Tent Democrat: "The exchange with Russert on Social Security was particularly damaging because Obama has made a point of calling out Senator Clinton for not speaking forthrightly on the so-called Social Security 'crisis.'"

On Iraq, David Sirota blogs: "Obama wasn't just silent in 2004 on the war, he was silent in 2005, too. ... So here's what I wonder: Is it a laudable thing that Obama basically kept quiet in 2004 for, as he basically said, the good of the Democratic ticket? Or is damnable, and should he have continued to push his party to stop the war?" Sirota later updates with a passage from Marc Ambinder's recent Atlantic article on Obama: "He could have been the moral voice, the moral authority on Iraq," one of Obama's closest advisers told me. "But he was just a freshman senator. It would have been presumptuous of him to take that lead."

Sirota comments: "Now, I have to say, that is pretty screwed up - and damnable. A war is going on - one that Obama opposes. His people admit he could have been the moral leader against it, but decided not to, essentially out of deference to the Senate club's etiquette. Without commenting on the original question of whether his silence in 2004 was laudable or damnable, I have to say that this Atlantic Monthly excerpt makes his silence in 2005 damnable, to say the least."

GOP VP: McCain - Lieberman Would Be Kristol's Dream Ticket

Bill Kristol's suggestion that the eventual GOP nominee embrace Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-CT) as their VP was not warmly embraced. The Corner's Peter Wehner was the least dismissive: "It's an intriguing idea - and it would certain scramble the political chessboard. Whichever party wins in '08, let's hope Joe Lieberman plays a pivotal role on national-security matters. In the entire political world, there are not many who are better, or politically braver."

Also at The Corner, Ramesh Ponnuru didn't see the point: "I'm not sure what the case for putting him on the ticket is. To prove that Republicans are willing to reach out to Democrats whom most Democrats hate? To show that Republicans are the hawkish party? I think people already know that."

Outside the Beltway's James Joyner blogs: "The idea, frankly, is baffling. Yes, Lieberman is a foreign policy hawk. He's probably even a neocon. Even to the extent that out-of-favor agenda is somehow the path to retaining the White House, however, it makes no sense to chose a backup quarterback who would install an entirely different domestic policy game plan were the starter to go out."

HUCKABEE: SoCon's Mr. Right All Along?

Reports that James Dobson is likely to endorse Mike Huckabee soon have some conservatives claiming Huckabee may be consolidating social conservatives. Soren Dayton blogs: "Friday, a bunch of Southern Baptist leaders endorsed Mike Huckabee. Now, Huckabee is a Southern Baptist pastor, so this might not seem surprising, but Huckabee is on the moderate side of the SBC world. ... That sounds like a consolidation of the religious right in a way that could be worth a good 5-10% in places like Iowa and South Carolina. ... Earlier on, I said that it seemed that the religious right had dated Mitt Romney, but decided to marry Fred Thompson. It appears that I spoke to soon. It seems that Fred might have jilted them at the altar, and they found a new person."

RedState's Erick Erickson reports from GA: "On the way out of church today, three different men in the church cornered me to ask me if I liked Huckabee. I told them I was afraid of his economic policies, but very much personally liked the guy. That was good enough for them. They'd heard Dobson was coming out for him. These guys have been sitting on the fence not writing checks. That sound you hear this week is the sound of evangelical Christians getting their checkbooks out."

Townhall's Hugh Hewitt sees enough movement Huckabee's direction to warn: "[E]verybody likes Mike, but very few people --and zero political professionals who aren't on the payroll-- think he stands a chance against Team Hillary despite his claims to have been successfully battling the Clintons in Arkansas this past decade. The idea that a country tired of an evangelical former Texas governor in the White House who has pushed unpopular immigration policies might be persuaded to be enthusiastic about evangelical former Arkansas governor who is also pro-regularization of illegals is not just far fetched. It is hallucinatory.

MCCAIN: Nothing Succeeds Like Access

Power Line's Paul Mirengoff road on John McCain's Straight Talk Express 11/10 - 11 and explains: "High on the list of the grievances expressed against McCain by some of our conservative readers is the perception that he became the darling of the mainstream media during the 2000 campaign by expressing disdain for conservatives to reporters. ... After this weekend, though, I can offer a simpler explanation for why members of the mainstream media like McCain - the extraordinary access he provides and the good cheer with which he provides it."

Later Mirengoff reports from Barrington, NH: "McCain discusses four topics before moving on to questions: health care for veterans, Pakistan, spending, and Iraq. Pakistan seems like an odd choice. ...Later McCain will tell us that the only topics he always includes in his speeches are Iraq and spending, and that he likes to add subjects that are new and topical. ... Now it's question time. McCain had told us that he almost always gets questions about health care, immigration, and Iraq, and all three subjects come up early."

More Mirengoff: "The crowd clearly likes McCain, but I don't sense he has definitively won over the room. Take this for what it's worth, coming as it does from someone who until this weekend had zero experience on the campaign trail - I believe lots of people up here simply haven't made up their minds. Given the state of play, that's probably what McCain is hoping."

Also in NH, GraniteGrok posts excerpts from an internal campaign memo on McCain's strength in the state: "As more and more voters tune in to the race, we expect to have the same success converting undecideds into supporters. We need to grow our local organizations and turn your friends and neighbors into supporters too. If this conversion rate holds, we'll be taking the lead for good on, or even earlier than, January 8 - when we EXPECT the Primary to be held."

THOMPSON: He's Not Ron Paul

Fred Thompson's Social Security plan continues to receive positive conservative reviews. Captain's Quarters blogs: "Thompson's bold move on Social Security might put pressure on the rest of the field to start formulating their own detailed solutions." AmSpec Blog's Quin Hillyer writes: "From a conservative economic standpoint, the plan is not perfect. But it would mark a HUGE improvement over what we have now. It would extend the solvency of the system by many decades, and it would bolster private savings and investment."

NRO'sJim Geraghty reports "based on a cryptic message" that Thompson fans may be preparing their own Ron Paul like one day online fundraising push for 11/21.

The Corner's Kathryn Jean Lopez, however, posts an email from Draft Thompson's Tommy Oliver: "It's not some big fundraising day. It was an idea thrown out by a few of us who are in no way affiliated with the campaign. It was picked up in our forums and it's a day thrown out by just some of his supporters. Please stop referring to it like it's something the campaign is planning, because it's not. Using something his supporters planned to place more expectations on him is not fair to his campaign."

THOUGHT OF THE DAY: In Related News, Alex Rodriguez Will Not Play For Less Than $350 Mil.

Marginal Revolution's Alex Tabarrok's brother explains why unions are so powerful in the entertainment business:

...unlike in most other unionized industries, it's the INDIVIDUAL members of the unions in the entertainment industry that the management / owners want to work with. For example, Tom Cruise is a member of SAG, and if the studios and producers want to make a film with Mr Cruise, and we all do, we have to come to terms with SAG. Similarly, Steven Spielberg is a member of the DGA, same issue. Though writers are not household names, it's the same issue, there are specific individuals who the studios want to be writing their TV shows and screenplays. It doesn't matter if Joe or John or Mary is stacking the boxes, flipping the burgers or ringing the cash registers so management can easily hire a non-union member to do the same job, in the film business we need to work with specific individuals who happen to be union members. Thus the power of those (comparatively) few empowers them all.

LEST WE FORGET: Some Might Argue His Descent Into Overwrought Obama Hagiography Is Already Complete

AmSpec Blog's John Tabin quotes Andrew Sullivan at length including: "I covered the Clintons for eight years. The one thing I learned about them is that they lie. It's reflexive to them; after decades of the lying that tends to infect the households of addicts, they don't have a normal person's understanding of truth and falsehood. They have an average sociopath's understanding of truth and falsehood."

Tabin predicts: "Say what you will about Sullivan, we can at least expect that, if Hillary wins, his attacks will be just as over-the-top as they've been in the Bush years. (If Obama were to win, I'd put money on Andrew following his mercurial Bush-era pattern exactly: descending into overwrought hagiography in the early years and then, at some point, turning on a dime.)"

Posted by Conn Carroll at November 12, 2007 12:52 PM