October 09, 2007

10/9: Like Slipping Into A Nice Warm Bath

The more we think about it, the more we are convinced 10/9's 4 PM CNBC debate is the perfect forum for Fred Thompson to make his initial stand with his WH '08 GOP challengers. First, with the afternoon start time and CNBC venue, we can be sure very few voters will be watching the debate. Second, the MSM will of course be watching very closely, but either through design or luck, Thompson has lowered expectations so far that as long as he does not "make any humongous gaffes" he can walk away from the debate a winner. Finally, this debate serves as a perfect warm up for 10/21's Fox News debate in Orlando, FL. Considering how many GOP primary voters actually watch Fox, that will be Thompson's first real test. If anything tonight's debate is more like a Roger Clemens Tampa Yankees start than a major league debut.

MCCAIN: Fearsome Foursome

John McCain's web presence got a lot younger, and dare we say prettier, with the introduction of McCainBloggete. McCain daughter Meghan McCain, La-Toria Haven, Heather Brand, and UT Gov. Jon Huntsman daughter Mary Anne Huntsman will all be contributing to the blog's focus on "politics, pop culture, fashion and our adventurous spirits."

PAUL: Bigger Than Dean

In light of the fact that 70% of Ron Paul's $5 mil. 3Q haul came from the internet, Townhall's Matt Lewis asked Paul com. dir. Jesse Benton to differentiate Paul from Howard Dean: "[Paul] has had a legitimate following for over twenty years. ... the internet has matured a little bit and is more capable of translating online activism to on-the-ground organization."

ROMNEY: A Case Against

Responding to a pro-Mitt Romney blog's defense of Romney's '94 claim, "Look, I was an Independent during the time of Reagan/Bush. I am not trying to return to Reagan/Bush," NRO's Jim Geraghty spells out exactly what about Romney's record troubles him including:

• If I had been called out for bragging about a state police program to deal with illegal immigrants that never went into effect, I would be embarrassed.
• Similarly, if I had several "sanctuary cities" in my state during my governorship and hadn't done much of anything to deter them, I would hesitate before going after one of my rivals on that front. Romney doesn't seem to have that hesitation.
• I'm not going to give Romney much grief about his conversion to the pro-life cause, I'm just going to note that he's got a lot of past comments loudly supporting abortion rights that any Democratic rival will use to paint him as a flip-flopper in the general election.
• Like with the abortion comments, if Romney says he's committed to Second Amendment rights, great, but he's got a bunch of comments in the past that have him backing various forms of gun control
• His health care plan's individual mandate. Romney supported individual mandates in Massachusetts, but says he wouldn't support that kind of plan nationwide.
• Finally, during the Iowa debate, Romney suggested there was something inherently unethical or wrong in describing or criticizing your opponent's positions

THOMPSON: But How Many Will Skip Oprah?

Conservatives are not expecting a command performance from Fred Thompson in 10/9's 4 PM CNBC debate. Thoughts include:

• RCP Blog's Tom Bevan: "I don't want to over hype the importance of tomorrow's debate. Fred must clear the same hurdles everyone else must clear every time they attend one of these things: appear competent and don't make any humongous gaffes. But Fred also faces additional scrutiny given it's the first week of October and it's his first time on stage. ... Negative media spin isn't going to kill Thompson's campaign, but at this point in the game it's not inconsequential."
• Power Line's Paul Mirengoff: "[I]t's natural to view Tuesday's debate as Thompson's opportunity to prove he's ready for prime time. That's fair enough, as long as one keeps in mind that the people he needs to prove this to are Republican voters, not beltway insiders.
• Lucianne.com: "Fred Thompson Prepares for His First Debate. Debate begins at 4:00 EDT today. Will Fred's career be finished by 5:00.p.m? Worth skipping Oprah for the outcome?"

Few conservatives are impressed by Thompson's ex-Sen. George Allen (R-VA) endorsement either. NY Sun's Ryan Sager argues they are a match made in heaven: "If not for Mr. Allen's implosion in 2006, he would have been reelected to the Senate and crowned the presumptive standard-bearer for the continuation of the Bush legacy - a fake-southern, big-spending, social-conservative-friendly good ol' boy."

CLINTON: For those Of You Keeping Score At Home, Kos Really Does Not Like Hillary

Two separate foreign policy stories out of NH and IA are reminding the netroots why they are uncomfortable with Hillary Clinton as their nominee. Responding to Union Leader reports that Clinton endorser ret. Lt. Gen. Claudia Kennedy "supports Clinton's promise to withdraw the majority of U.S. troops from Iraq if she is elected President. But ... does not consider her position to be opposing the war as it is currently being conducted," DailyKos' founder Markos Moulitsas responds: "Huh? What the heck is she talking about? Is this some pathetic attempt to differentiate herself (and Hillary, by extension), from those dirty f***ing hippies that just want to, er, end the war? But if she wants to broadcast to all of New Hampshire that Hillary is not anti-war, then by all means, she should keep doing so."

Open Left's Chris Bowers was a bit more forgiving: "Given all of this, is Hillary Clinton "opposed" to the war in Iraq, or not? I think the answer is that she has pretty much always been in favor of the war, but in the last couple of years has also been in favor of reducing the size of our military involvement. ... Perhaps a good analogy is that her views on Iraq are more JFK than LBJ: both are hawkish, but one is narrow and targeted while the other is expansive and prone to quagmires."

Also at Open Left, Matt Stoller links to reports out of New Hampton, IA, about a "a harsh back-and-forth" between Clinton and an audience member over HRC's 10/3 vote in favor of labeling Iran's Revolutionary Guard a terrorist organization. Stoller suggests: "The most effective attack angle here, both for Obama (with his record breaking number of activists) and Edwards (who is running on populist rhetoric), would be to argue that this is an example of Clinton is dismissing "regular people" who disagree with her as campaign plants."

Again, Markos was less forgiving: "She's being asked that question because many can't believe that Hillary is so damn stupid as to give George Bush a rationale for attacking Iran. ... Does she think her audience is that stupid? Apparently so. ... No wonder she won't apologize for screwing up the Iraq War Authorization. She sees nothing wrong with that vote, and has every intention of casting that kind of vote over and over again."

EDWARDS: Hey, If Stanford Can Beat USC...

DailyKos' founder Markos Moulitsas notes that he can not find anything in the FEC's regulations that prevents a party from naming its nominee before their convention and then explains how John Edwards could salvage his electability despite his pledge to accept public financing:

• He wins big in the early states and cleans up on Feb. 5.
• The rest of the candidates drop out, so he's the only candidate.
• The DNC holds a meeting (with all its delegates) and formally recognizes Edwards as the nominee.
• This one is important -- Edwards opts out of public financing in the General.
• Money flows like water, and then Edwards can truly run on "ideas" knowing that 1) he'll have the money to deliver those ideas to voters, and 2) beat back the inevitable swiftboating efforts.

OBAMA: Remember When The Netroots Expected Good Policy Out Of Barack?

Barack Obama's promise to auction off emission credits instead of assigning them to existing polluters earned his 10/8 energy plan strong netroots reviews:

• Blue Hampshire's Dean Barker: "All in all a pretty bold plan, though I would have preferred the addition of a carbon tax. However, this part [the auction part] seemed to be hinting at that."
• Gristmill's Dave Roberts: "Overall, I'm pleasantly surprised -- even shocked -- at its quality. It's a deft mix of good politics and strong, substantive policy. Here are what I see as the three headlines: 100% auction of cap-and-trade credits. ... Smart investment. ... A focus on efficiency."
• Brian Beutler: "It's extremely good. Exceptional in some places, slightly nebulous in others, perfectly in line with expectations in yet more, but also perfectly in line what we should expect from good public servants at this point, and certainly more than I expected from Obama."
• Matthew Yglesias: "The basic framework is a cap-and-trade system wherein the emissions credits are sold by the government rather than given away. I've come to the view that this is actually preferable to a carbon tax on substance since it asks bureaucrats to perform the hard-but-doable task of setting an appropriate carbon goal and then letting the market sort out what implicit price that sets on carbon emissions rather than the so-hard-it-might-be-impossible task of guestimating what price will get emissions under control.

NM SEN: An Advantage Of Early National Primaries?

Reacting to news Albuquerque mayor Martin Chavez will run for retiring Sen. Pete Domenici's (R-NM) seat, New Mexico FBIHOP reports, "Chavez will have some measure of support in Albuquerque (he has, after all, won elections to become mayor multiple times), but among progressives, his name is almost as hated as Heather Wilson."

Despite acknowledging that their Draft Tom Udall (D-NM) effort has failed, the netroots still hope to influence the primary. Real estate developer Don Wiviott appears to be the local bloggers favorite but LG Dianne Denish (D) is also a possibility. DailyKos' founder Markos Moulitsas comments: "I don't know if Wiviott will catch fire, but people do say good things about Dianne Denish. I really hope she runs. If there's solid consensus in the NM grass- and netroots, this may be a primary in which we might want to get involved."

SurveyUSA numbers showing Bill Richardson and Udall beating potential GOP opponents Reps. Heather Wilson (R-NM) and Steven Pearce (R-NM) also have some in the community hoping Richardson or Udall will still reconsider. MyDD's Jonathan Singer notes that the filing deadline for the Dem primary is 2/15 ... 10 days after a Richardson campaign may have been dealt a crushing blow in the 2/5 WH primaries.

BLOGGERS VS BELTWAY: The New Whips?

In an effort to help Congressional Dems pass SCHIP, the netroots are stepping up pressure on the five House Dem who voted with GOPers against extending the program. Fire Dog Lake's Jane Hamsher blogs: "Since the passage of the S-CHIP bill, the DCCC has been running a campaign of phone calls and radio ads to pressure Republicans who voted against it into switching their vote and overturning Bush's veto. ... But what about the five Democrats who voted against it, and still refuse to switch their vote? ... this morning Blue America is joining with BlogPac to do the same thing by placing recorded calls in the districts of the five Democrats: Jim Marshall (GA), Baron Hill (IN), Gene Taylor (MS), Bob Etheridge (NC), and Mike McIntyre (NC)."

Open Left's Chris Bowers notes that the five have already been labeled 'Bush Dogs' and promises: "If primary challenges were to appear against any of these Democrats, I would support them."

On the merits of the debate, the Dems use of 12 year old Graeme Frost to deliver the Dem radio address has sparked a heated exchange between conservatives and progressives. The Corner's Mark Steyn blogs: "The Democrats chose to outsource their airtime to a Seventh Grader. If a political party is desperate enough to send a boy to do a man's job, then the boy is fair game. As it is, the Dems do enough cynical and opportunist hiding behind biography and identity, and it's incredibly tedious. And anytime I send my seven-year-old out to argue policy you're welcome to clobber him, too. The alternative is a world in which genuine debate is ended and, as happened with Master Frost, politics dwindles down to professional staffers writing scripts to be mouthed by Equity moppets."

Digby writes: "This is so loathesome I am literally sick to my stomach. These kids were hurt in a car accident. Their parents could not afford health insurance --- and sure as hell couldn't get it now with a severely handicapped daughter. And these shrieking wingnut jackasses are harassing their family for publicly supporting the program that allowed the kids to get health care. ... They'd better pray that they stay rich and healthy and live forever because if there is a hell these people are going to be on the express train to the 9th circle the minute they shuffle off their useless mortal coils.

IRAQ: A Range Of Emotions

Corner contributors Rich Lowry and Victor Davis Hanson both posted quick reactions upon returning from Iraq. Lowry writes: "I'm back from a brief trip to Iraq that left me feeling awed, encouraged, and depressed. Awed because our troops and commanders are amazing. Encouraged because we've turned the tide in a lot of places, especially Sunni areas. Depressed because Iraq has slid so far in 2006 and because what we need for this ultimately to work-some form of Sunni-Shia reconciliation-is not entirely under our control."

Hanson blogs: "[W]e might well be witnessing an historic change in Iraq that would have profound effects throughout the region. The Iraqis are just beginning to step up effectively to their own defense, and are reaching out to the Americans-rather than solely vice versa as was mostly true between 2003-6."

THOUGHT OF THE DAY: Primaries For Everybody

Lamenting the lack of primary challenges despite the historic unpopularity of Congress, Open Left's Matt Stoller identifies three reasons why local officials don't challenge Democratic incumbents in Congress or the Senate under the header 'The Broken Market for Democratic Primaries':

• Information Gap: It's impossible to effectively judge, as a potential candidate, whether there is support for a primary challenge.
• Resource Gap: Should a challenger emerge, there is still a resource gap. PAC directors, party committees, lobbyists, labor, members themselves - they will and do support incumbents.
• Institutional Gap: Perhaps this is the biggest problem of all - party insiders hate primary challenges and have built up a set of cultural arguments against them within donor and activist networks.

Stoller concludes: "Fixing this market is a long and slow process that started in 2006. To reorient the incentive system, we must consider supporting primary challengers wherever they appear, if only to send the message to other potential candidates that there is a guaranteed base of support for people willing to challenge calcified incumbents."

LEST WE FORGET: The Proof Is In The Parades

Matthew Yglesias comments on Indigenous People's Day: "I keep kinda sorta forgetting that today is Columbus Day. One of the United States' niftier quirks is that Columbus has been adopted as the Italian-American national hero, so in cities with large historic Italian immigrant populations you see some Columbus Day celebrations, but in places like DC there's nothing. This, in my view, is how you can tell that Baltimore -- with its Columbus Day parade -- is the southernmost of Northeastern cities whereas parade-less DC is the northernmost city of the southeast (if you doubt me, note that the original lyrics of 'Hail to the Redskins' enjoined the team to 'fight for old Dixie')."

Posted by Conn Carroll at October 9, 2007 12:51 PM