October 04, 2007

10/4: Robbing Obama To Pay Paul?

Responding to colleague queries about who a now well funded Ron Paul could possibly take actual votes from, AmSpec Blog's James Antle argues: "Probably not very many from any of them, since a Republican or independent drawn toward Paul is probably too alienated from the rest of the Bush-era GOP to find the others an acceptable second choice ... Paul's bid will mostly just keep these people voting in the Republican primaries."

We tend to agree. So from what pool of voters will Paul be sharing possible converts. One needs only to visit Atlantic Voices to find out. From Andrew Sullivan: "My feeling about this election is that it reminds me very much of 1991 in its restlessness. But it's more interesting than that. ... It's obvious from this blog that I too find Ron Paul and Barack Obama by far the most interesting candidates. Not because I agree with them on everything. But because they alone represent the courage to move past the past. The rest seems exhausted to me."

Is Sullivan on to something? Both Paul and Obama sport fervent supporters in love with their candidates commitment to 'real change' and frustrated by establishment Washington. Maybe not in IA, but in a state like NH where independents can vote in either primary, we think a strong case can be made that a viable Paul campaign hurts Obama the most.

DEM FIELD: This Just In ... Television Advertising Works

Pollster.com's Mark Blumenthal links to Advertising Age's Evan Tracey analysis showing "Bill Richardson leads the pack, airing over 4,000 commercials in an effort to move up in the polls in the early states of Iowa and New Hampshire. Barack Obama is close behind with close to $2 million invested in TV time, mostly in Iowa. Hillary Clinton and John Edwards, because of their profiles, were able to skip the typical bio spots and have spent far less."

Blumenthal comments: "Not surprisingly, the poll trends follow the money: Richardson has seen a modest bump up in his support to roughly 12% in Iowa and 10% in New Hampshire. Obama, Tracey tells us, has run ads "mostly in Iowa." Thus, Obama's trend line is up in Iowa, but trending slightly downward in New Hampshire and elsewhere. And while he's a little unclear on exactly where Clinton has spent that $1 million on the last five weeks, he implies she's buying television in both Iowa and New Hampshire and radio in South Carolina. Her trend lines are on the rise in all three states, as they are nationally."

Blumenthal then posts a table showing favorability changes by month for the Dem Field. Open Left's Chris Bowers links and comments: "It is interesting that Clinton was leading in New Hampshire even when she had lower favorable ratings than other candidates in the field. ... I don't really know how an electability narrative helps Clinton, but I can see how it hurts her. Over the past couple of days, we have seen countless stories talking about Clinton's dominating lead in polls and fundraising. After such coverage, and with very high favorables among her main opponents, how can she not take a massive, potentially campaign-ending, momentum hit if she loses Iowa?"

CLINTON: The AFT, IUBAM, NALC, IAM, UTU Juggernaut

Two new Hillary Clinton endorsements; two very different netroots reactions. First the good, from Open Left's Chris Bowers: "Personally, this is the biggest endorsement of the campaign for me so far. The [American Federation of Teachers] has played a very large role in both my life, and the life of my family. ... I trust the decisions they make. If they decide to endorse Hillary Clinton, that means a lot to me ... The AFT endorsement of Hillary Clinton improves my image of Hillary Clinton, just as my parents endorsement of Clinton has done so in the past. I still don't think I will vote for her in the primaries, but it is yet another reason why I am definitely not anti-Clinton."

TAPPED's Garance Franke-Ruta reports: "The move was long expected for three reasons: Clinton's historic commitment to and advocacy work around the education of children have given her deep relationships in the education community; the largest AFT affiliate is based in New York; and more than three-fourths of teachers are female. ... This brings the number of national unions endorsing Clinton to five, the others being: the International Union of Bricklayers and Allied Craftworkers; the National Association of Letter Carriers; the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace workers (IAM); and the United Transportation Union.

Oakland Mayor Ron Dellums' 10/1 Clinton endorsement seemed to carry less wait in the community. The Huffington Post's reports: "Dellums has been tarnished since his longtime support of Oakland's Black Muslim Bakery, run by a group of criminals who have terrorized the bakery's neighborhood for years, came to light in August when Oakland Post editor Chauncey Bailey was murdered, presumably as a result of his nosing around the organization."

Also at HuffPo, Marc Cooper adds: "It was a pretty straightforward political deal. The aspiring presidential candidate promised the former congressman that, if elected, she would appoint him as head of a key national policy committee. And in return, the former congressman, now the mayor of a major Democratic city, endorsed the candidate. No surprise, either, that the candidate in question was Hillary Clinton. ... Oakland is the kind of place where Greens frequently out poll Republicans and while Brown is considered a solid liberal in the rest of the state, he became reviled by many of his original boosters for allegedly becoming too centrist. Dellums might have just taken a sharp right turn down that same path."

In more positive HRC blogging, The Huffington Post's Dave Johnson and James Boyce report "we hear from senior people in other campaigns that they are impressed at how hard [Clinton] works, how good her team is, how they keep working all day, every day." The Washington Monthly's Kevin Drum links to news Clinton supporters helped defeat a ballot initiative on presidential electoral votes and comments: "Despite several reservations obvious enough that I won't go into them, I'm pretty sympathetic toward Hillary Clinton's candidacy." TPM's Josh Marshall notes ABC-WaPo polling showing "strong margins Americans believe Bill Clinton is an asset to Sen. Clinton's presidential candidacy" and remarks: "To which I would say, no kidding."

Finally, Talk Left's Big Tent Democrat flags a WaPo item showing Brookings scholar and Iraq surge supporter Michael O'Hanlon is a Clinton foreign policy advisor and blogs: "Why would Senator Clinton want the support of someone who has diametrically opposed views from hers on the most important foreign policy issue of the day? ... Hillary should immediately renounce O'Hanlon's support and frankly, it is hard to fathom why he is supporting her."

DODD: Winning The TechPresident Primary

Marc Ambinder blogs on Chris Dodd's online team: "for a campaign run largely by veterans of Washington, he's used emerging technologies more fruitfully than just about everyone else. The campaign posted casual, behind-the-scenes videos of its headquarters, interviews with key staff members, blogged live from the spin room, created graphics with speaking times for candidates during debates, using Youtube videos to whip bills in the Senate."

TechPresident's Joshua Levy links and adds: "Marc Ambinder picks up on something we at techPresident have long acknowledged ... Dodd's web staff is far and way the most inventive and creative in the field."

OBAMA: Kumbaya Ain't Cutin' It

Opinions differ as to why, but the verdict is clear: Barack Obama's campaign has stalled. Explanations include:

• The Huffington Post's Adam Moorad: "If he is to make any headway as the Democratic frontrunner, his tactics must change. ... It is not that Obama is moving in the wrong direction. It is that he is not moving in any direction. ... His reputation is gradually overshadowing him. ... Attacking Clinton could jeopardize his image as the man who refuses to do things the old, Washington way. Furthermore, there is little evidence that Obama's candidacy offers much of a distinction between his and Clinton - except for her greater experience. That fact makes Obama's task all the more difficult."
• Oliver Willis: "Either Hillary Clinton is going to absolutely destroy her Democratic rivals on the way to the White House, or John Edwards and Barack Obama need to find a way to wake up their sleepy campaigns. ... I think that sort of kumbaya rhetoric is not what a post-Bush Democratic base wants to hear at all. It certainly does nothing for me, and in many ways I'm supposed to be Sen. Obama's target demo."
• Brendan Nyhan: "Obama is paying the price for the easy road he had in 2004. The collapse of his main primary opponent and his landslide win in the general election meant that he never had to go negative. As a result, he is not comfortable doing so and spends much of his time spouting goo-goo nonsense about everyone getting along. The reality, however, is that negative campaigning is essential to democratic politics, especially when you're not the frontrunner. It's how voters get (a) competition for their votes and (b) sharp contrasts between the candidates. Right now Obama's reluctance to go negative is depriving Democratic primary voters of both."
• The Plank's Michael Crowley: "I'm wondering whether there's another problem with Obama's campaign theme: namely, that Democratic primary voters don't particularly want hope right now. They want revenge! Heads on stakes! As much satisfying payback as possible. Maybe lots of swing voters really do want to end the "partisan bickering in Washington" and bridge ideological differences--but not Daily Kos readers and their ilk."

LIEBERMAN: Super Joe?

Daily Kos commenter JohnnyGunn notes that DNC has allocates 51 Senate super delegates and worriers: "Does Joe Lieberman qualify to be a super delegate at the 2008 Democratic Convention? I cannot think of a greater slap in the face than to have this shill for the Bush administration show up in Denver. But he might do so."

Gunn explains: "Lieberman recently registered as a Democrat in Stamford. So does he qualify for super delegate status? ... I contacted the Democratic National Committee's Office of Party Affairs and Delegate Selection. I was assured that Lieberman was not considered a Democrat, but was told that the delegate selection status would remain "in flux" until early March. That sounded like both a "No" and a "Maybe" answer."

Gunn urges: "If you believe, like I do, that this violates Democratic Party rules and rewards someone for ignoring the results of a legitimate primary election, then I urge you to contact party officials at the DNC."

GOP FIELD: Mega-Dittos Indeed

Supporting Rush Limbaugh against Dem attacks has become a benchmark issue for GOP WH '08ers. Official candidate responses noted by conservatives include:

• The Corner's Kathryn Jean Lopez: "I just got this from Fred Thompson, I'm told it will be available on his website shortly: 'Congressional Democrats are trying to divert attention from insulting our military leader in Iraq and pandering to the loony left by attacking Rush Limbaugh. He is one of the strongest supporters of our troops, yet Democrats claim he is not being strong enough. I wonder who General Petraeus and his troops think is most supportive?'
• Townhall's Hugh Hewitt: "I shot off a query to the Romney campaign ... Not only did the campaign respond immediately, Governor Romney called the show to discuss the controversy and state that Rush has 'got a long record of supporting our soldiers. There's no question that this is a man who has been very much on the side of our fighting men and women.'"
• NRO's Jim Geraghty asked John McCain, "Looking at Senator Harry Reid's reaction and the response of other Congressional Democrats, do you think this is an effort to create an equivalent to the MoveOn.org "Betray-Us" ad?" - McCain responded: "Sure. As I said, I don't think it was appropriate to say that, but really, to demand apologies and whatnot? I can't tell you the number of times I have misspoken, and when I have, I've tried to correct it and tried to move on. I think Rush is saying he was only talking about one figure. To me, this issue is closed."

GIULIANI: The Last Line Of Defense Between You And Hillary

Townhall's Matt Lewis posts audio of Rudy Giuliani's new NH radio ad and translates some excerpts:

• "They're not going to find perfection" - Translation: You know about the skeletons in my closet. I'm not gonna try to hide them...
• "There are two big things at stake for the country..." - Translation: Social issues aren't included in the "big" issues. And my personal life's not one of them, either.
• "If they agree with most of them (his issues) ..." Translation: Don't get hung up on social issues. If you agree with most of my positions, vote for me.
• "The Republican that Democrats just don't want to run against." - Translation: I'm electable. Otherwise, you'll get Hillary!

HUCKABEE: Most Improved

Mike Huckabee took wide criticism for his weak 3Q fundraising numbers, but The Corner's Stephen Spruiell looked on the bright side: "I think I spoke too soon when I compared Mike Huckabee's third-quarter fundraising totals unfavorably to Ron Paul's. If it's true that Huckabee raised "around $1 million" this quarter, that's a 31-percent increase over his second-quarter total of $766,000. ... at least the numbers are moving upward for Huckabee, which is more than one can say for Giuliani, Romney, or especially McCain."

AmSpec Blog's Jennifer Rubin flags Wall Street Journal polling showing "6 in 10 GOPers think free trade has been bad for the US" and comments: "Maybe Huckabee is not as far out of the GOP mainstream as free market conservatives would like to think. ... It would seem that Republicans office holders and candidates have perhaps taken it for granted that their base understands the necessity of free trade and the benefits of globalization. As on so many topics it is time for GOP leaders including presidential contenders to make the case with voters."

MCCAIN: He Did It For The Children

NRO's Jim Geraghty scored an interview with John McCain in SC including this McCain response to a Drudge Report headline claiming 'RETREAT: MCCAIN BACKS OFF CLINTON CRITIQUE': "I was scheduled to give speech to Camden Academy. It's kind of unique, it's like a military academy, it's sort of like the Citadel, but on a high school level. They had prepared a speech for me, and these kids, they're in uniform. They want to hear stories like my Christian [I think he's referring to the guard in the POW camp who loosened his bonds and drew a cross on the ground] and the flag, and how great military service is. I scrapped the entire prepared remarks - not specifically my comments regarding Senator Clinton. ... How in the world this [headline] came is just bizarre."

Also at NRO, Geraghty shares an observation from some NH sources: "So one of my guys in the Granite State noted two nice editorials about John McCain in the New Hampshire Union Leader up there, and remembered their op-ed about 'the comeback' . He said he's seen critical house editorials from the paper on Giuliani (for taking the cell phone call) on Romney (on his pro-life credentials) and Thompson (for missing that New Hampshire debate). He wonders if that means the newspaper's potential endorsement choices have narrowed to McCain and Huckabee."

PAUL: Not Quite As Funny As He Used To Be

Reason's David Weigel confirms Ron Paul's $5+ mil. 3Q fundraising hall and then crunches some numbers: "So he's raised about $8.2 mil. and spent $2.9 mil., a burn rate of around 35 percent. That's a little lower than the burn rate for the frontrunning candidates-though if you're a cynic you could ask why Paul's investment hasn't shown up in the polls."

Voices throughout the conservosphere are also mystified as to where Paul's cash and support are coming from. Captain's Quarters blogs: "It may be time to stop laughing at Paul and start thinking about where his support originates, and whether it means anything for the general election." The Corner's Kathryn Jean Lopez shares an email: "I personally think that Paul is the Howard Dean of this campaign, in an that an enthusiastic, almost fanatical grassroots does not equal votes. But it does count for something. I think all the Paul people, almost all Republicans of one sort or another, are going to end up sitting out the general election."

NY Sun's Ryan Sager muses: "[H]e certainly represents a dedicated super-minority of activists and grassroots donors who have spent quite a lot of time agitating for their man online and bringing in the bucks. It hasn't brought the Big Four candidates a millimeter closer to the Paul position on the Iraq war or foreign policy generally. But the Paulites have made their presence known."

THOMPSON: Whatever You Do, Don't Call Him Newt

Some divergent takes on Fred Thompson 10/3. First the good: Instapundit thought Thompson contrasted himself with Hillary Clinton well on Hannity and Colmes and Race4'08s William Reston urges Thompson "to kill Mitt Romney" in IA and "do it now."

Next the bad: The Corner's Stephen Spruiell tracks Thompson flip-flopping on Ethanol Subsidies and NRO's Jim Geraghty blogs: "In 1996, A Thompson Spokesman Said It Was 'Inaccurate' To Say He Voted the Newt Gingrich Line."

Finally, the ugly: The Brody File posts video of Thompson's Des Moines Register editorial board meeting including this Thompson quote: "If a state chose to recognize it (gay marriage) and the Governor signed off and signed it into legislation so be it." Brody comments: "His position here is not new. But the words 'so be it' may be just a tad bit flip for social conservatives. The marriage issue could very well be a problem for Fred Thompson with many Evangelical voters. ... Comments like "so be it" don't help. ... Thompson is trying the federalism track here but here's where he gets into trouble.

NM SENATE: At Least Somebody Was Ready For This Retirement

The netroots have already identified their preferred candidate for retiring-Sen. Pete Domenici (R-NM): Rep. Tom Udall (D-NM). Announcing the creation of an Act Blue fundraising page for a Draft Udall campaign, MyDD's Adam Conner pitches: "Tom Udall is the only Democratic member of the New Mexico House delegation, has won statewide twice as Attorney General, and had $715,000 in the bank at the end of July. He's also a progressive legislator who opposed the War in Iraq and has a deep interest in solutions to the global warming crisis."

MyDD's Jonathan Singer is also a fan: "Back in May, for instance, Udall voted against the Iraq supplemental funding legislation that did not include a timeline for the withdrawal of American troops from the country. In short, he doesn't vote perfectly 100 percent of the time, but he is a solid progressive and would presumably continue to be one should he be elected to the United States Senate."

Matthew Yglesias dissents: "With Pete Domenici set to retire, mightn't this be a good time for Bill Richardson to consider dropping out of the presidential race and running for Senate?"

BLOGGERS VS MSM: GOPers Love Rush More Than Dems Love MoveOn

GOP Congressmen couldn't post at RedState fast enough to show they stood behind Rush Limbaugh 100%. GOPers posting include:

• Min. Chief Dep. Whip Eric Cantor (R-VA): "This issue is bigger than you or me, it is bigger than Rush Limbaugh. With the recent liberal effort to resurrect the "fairness doctrine," we have to recognize that free speech -- conservative free speech is under direct attack. ... I want to send Washington Democrats a message that their attempts to distract aren't working - I stand with Rush Limbaugh against liberal attacks."
• Rep. Mike Pence (R-IN): "I believe these attacks on talk radio are a precursor for returning censorship to the airwaves of America in the form of the Fairness Doctrine. ... This week, Congressman Greg Walden and I requested that Democrat leaders bring the Broadcaster Freedom Act to the floor of this Congress immediately, and take the power away from the FCC in this, or any future administration, to regulate the airwaves of America."
• Min. Whip Roy Blunt (R-MO): "This could've been an opportunity for Democrats to demonstrate real leadership by standing shoulder to shoulder with those of us who support our men and women in uniform, and condemn the reprehensible actions of people like Jesse MacBeth. Rush Limbaugh is clearly one of these men. His support for our troops is incontrovertible."
• Rep. Vito Fosella (R-NY): "Rush Limbaugh is a favorite target for the left, but his support of our men and women in uniform is unquestioned. If Senators wants to debate Rush on the merits of the war, so be it. But they should not be questioning his patriotism or his commitment to those who wear our nation's uniform."

THOUGHT OF THE DAY: Apparently, He's Never Seen Junior

Boi from Troy looks at Hillary Clinton's $5K baby bond proposal and asks: "But if the Baby Bond is only available to families of newborns-what does that mean to gays and lesbians? First of all, because of nature, most of us aren't creating much more than Jelly babies-and I do not think they're included in her plan. Adoptive gay parents will be left out if the payout goes to newborns, leaving only lesbians as potential beneficiaries. ... So, quite specifically, gay males are the only potential parents who are not eligible for the Baby Bond benefit. You would think that candidates would start thinking about the discriminatory effects of their ideas before they go out proposing them..."

LEST WE FORGET: Mad Frums

TAPPED's Matthew Duss asks us to "read the following and see if you can guess whether David Frum is writing about Iraq back in 2003, or about Iran today":

You want realism? It's this: The emerging US-____ confrontation is a confrontation of ___'s choice and ____'s making. It is ____ that has determined to seek nuclear weapons, ____ that has declared it will use those weapons aggressively against its neighbors, and ____ that has made a nonsense of the long negotiations with the UK, France, and Germany. We are rapidly reaching the point - maybe we have reached it already - where ____ has succeeded in reducing our choices to two: acquiesce in a nuclear bomb or stop it by force. As for the idea that the present ____ regime can be a negotiating partner - a constructive force in the region - or anything other than a menace to its neighbors or its own people, well we need another term for that. How about "fantasy"?

Posted by Conn Carroll at October 4, 2007 12:40 PM