October 02, 2007
10/2: This Revolution Will Not Be Blogged
Watching the conservosphere debate the significance of social conservatives' threats to back a third-party candidate, should Rudy Giuliani win the nomination, we are struck by one thing: There is no voice in the blogosphere claiming to speak for the social conservative movement. Sure, The Brody File does a fine job delivering the opinions of established social conservative figures (like Richard Land and Tony Perkins), but there are very few bloggers who consider themselves part of the movement. Instead most conservatives bloggers speak of social conservatives in the third person.
Just look at the different terms used to describe the group. Today we quote conservatives using 'Christian Right', 'Evangelical groups', 'pro-lifers', 'pro-life grassroots', and 'Religous Right.' Whatever divide exists between social conservatives and the GOP in real life, it has definitely materialized online as well.BROWNBACK: So Long And Thanks For All The Faith
RedState's Leon Wolf announced 10/1 that his "time as the E-Campaign Coordinator for the Sam Brownback Campaign has ended." Wolf explained: "I simply do not have the available time that is necessary to do the job properly. ... I am still, however, supportive of Senator Brownback and his campaign. I believe in his message, his character, and his vision for America. ... May God bless Senator Brownback and his efforts."
GIULIANI: '08 To Be GOP's '68?
Reports that "some of the nation's most politically influential conservative Christians" are threatening to back a third-party candidate should Rudy Giuliani secure the GOP nomination dominated conservative WH '08 blogging 10/1. Additional conservative reporting on the meeting includes:
- Family Research Council pres. Tony Perkins tells The Brody File: "This is about the life issue. There is absolutely no way that we will go with a candidate that is pro-abortion. ... We're not here to advance the agenda of the Republican Party. If they're not willing to advance the agenda of social conservatives, then we're not with them." Brody comments: "It's important to note that these Evangelical groups are still trying to find a viable candidate out there. They believe there are some alternatives to Rudy. Fred Thompson is definitely still on the table, Huckabee is receiving some support too and Romney is intriguing."
- Townhall's Matt Lewis heard AL Chief Justice Roy Moore was the early first choice for a third-party candidate, but Richard Viguerie shot down that idea in a later interview. Lewis summarizes more from Viguerie: "Viguerie believes the conservative movement has been lied to by the establishment Republicans for 45 years, and that it may be time to launch a true conservative party. He tells me that the 3rd party rumor isn't an ad hoc one-time effort to stop Rudy Giuliani, as was reported. Instead, it is a long-term paradigm shift in which conservatives will forever leave the GOP, it's natural home since Ronald Reagan."
- NRO's Jim Geraghty shares this nugget from Human Events contributor Nathaniel Blake: "Far better for the GOP to lose in 2008 than for pro-lifers to be marginalized from both parties. If Rudy gets the nomination, I will oppose him vociferously. I would want to see protesters with giant gruesome aborted baby photos crash the convention. I'd want the GOP version of Chicago in 1968."
- more from Geraghty's notes: "I took an informal poll of pro-life readers of National Review Online, and heard from about 150 grassroots who had past experience volunteering for GOP campaigns at the local, state, and presidential level. ... While the poll is unscientific, it seems reasonable to surmise that if Rudy wins the GOP nomination, anywhere from a quarter to a half of pro-life activists could be playing a different role than they did in 2000 and 2004
Reactions to these developments include:
- AmSpec Blog's Philip Klein: "Jim Geraghty speculates on whether a Republican can win a general election without energizing the pro-life grassroots. The way I see it, however, such a question will be rendered moot by the outcome of the GOP nomination battle. If Rudy wins, then it will demonstrate he is better at mobilizing support and getting people to the polls than his rivals. If he loses, then it will show the opposite to be true."
- Ankle Biting Pundit'sBull Dog Pundit: "I think many voters are like me. I'm solidly pro-life, and if it were up to me Roe v. Wade would be overturned and abortion left up to each individual state. However, in a post-9/11 world I'm more concerned about how the next President is going to fight the war on terror."
- Ankle Biting Pundit's Patrick Hynes: "I don't understand why some conservatives think that the GOP is entitled to the votes of the Religious Right and that religious conservatives are expected to act against their interests for the benefit of the partisan good. Indeed, I get the feeling that the Religious Right is the only group within the body politic of whom such a cynical bargain is expected."
- Captain's Quarters: "The problem with the Christian Right is that they have consistently made these threats in the past and have always dropped the idea when they started counting numbers. The groups have significant influence in the Republican Party because of their ability to organize and contribute, but their influence outstrips their actual size. Forming a third party would set them back at least a generation, and it would push Republican politics away from their agenda and towards the center, just when Democrats appear poised to abandon it."
- Hot Air's Allahpundit: "Shrewd move. The GOP's already looking at near-certain defeat so evangelicals can walk away without worrying overly much about costing Republicans the election. Plus, the fact that they're willing to make good on their threat will put the, ahem, fear of God into the rest of the party ahead of 2012 and restore some of the emphasis on "values" that's been lost in the jumble of terrorism and Iraq."
- Soren Dayton: "Many conservative activists will point to the Goldwater experience of 1964 as an analogy. Then, the party had the luxury of no real chance in the election. The party and the burgeoning conservative movement could reshape itself along conservative principles without any real consequences. ... This kind of situation is how parties change. There is an underlying reality to a Giuliani candidacy that a lot of pundits have not understood yet. The post-George W. Bush, post-9/11 party is different than it used to be. More socially conservative, but also more conservative on the war on terror. And Rudy is their ticket to a seat at the table."
Both The Brody File and The Corner's Byron York were quick to point to a Gallup poll which York says, "shows Giuliani leading among virtually every group, including some, like regular church attendees and married women, who have been key markers in the past." Brody comments: "Read the poll results here. I'm not suggesting that Giuliani is unbelievably popular with Evangelicals. The polls show that he is more popular in other subgroups. But he does have traction with Church goers to the point where he actually is in front of every other candidate."
The Corner's Lisa Schiffren identifies a different source for Giuliani's problems: "The albatross around Giuliani's neck at the moment is his third wife, Judith. ... The problem with being a thrice-married man, whose children don't speak to him, who wants the American people to trust his judgment, is that there is no wiggle room on the personal behavior front. Not one inch. Judith is a liability and a half. She is vulgar, uneducated, grasping and insecure - and has failed to keep those attributes hidden."
MCCAIN: Oy Veh!
AmSpec Blog's Jennifer Rubin handicapps John McCain's efforts to mollify Jewish critics over his assertion that the US is a Christian nation. From McCain: "It's almost Talmudic. We are a nation that was based on Judeo-Christian values. That means respect for all of human rights and dignity. That's my principle values and ideas, and that's what I think motivated our founding fathers."
Rubin comments: "[T]here is a world of difference both factually and politically between the terms "Judeo-Christian" and "Christian" and, yes, I think McCain understands this."
ROMNEY: Which Romneys Don't Have Their Own Website At This Point?
Ann Romney hosted a blogger conference call to help launch her new website AnnRomney.com. Power Line's Paul Mirengoff blogs: "Mrs. Romney is an excellent spokesperson for her husband, and her website should help the campaign leverage this asset." Robert Bluey reports: "The site features AnnTV, her causes (she has Multiple Sclerosis), favorite recipes and links to stories about her, dubbed the AnnWire."
More from Bluey: "Regardless of what you think about Romney as a candidate, I think his campaign is making the right move by giving his family greater exposure online. Their personal stories and anecdotes from the trail help personalize Romney, arguably the candidate who needs it most because of his Mormon religion."
AmSpec Blog's Jennifer Rubin was also on the call and pressed Mrs. Romney on stem cells: "I asked her about stem cell research and what she would say to MS patients and their families who think embryonic stem cell research offers hope. She pointed to the same turning point which her husband identifies as transforming his views -- the recognition that there is an 'ethical line in the sand' which is crossed when embryos are created for experimentation."
THOMPSON: Beating The Expectations Game
Conservatives are impressed but not bowled over by Fred Thompson's $8 mil. Q3 total. NRO's Jim Geraghty comments: "Had Fred come in the $5 million range, he would be largely written off at this point. Had he been well into double digits, he would be described as 'riding in on a white horse.' As it is, Team Thompson is off to a good start, enough to keep them in the game, but not enough to run away with the nomination this early."
Captain's Quarters adds: "Fred Thompson's fundraising since his announcement came to $200K per day. Extrapolated over a full quarter (90 days), that comes to $18 million -- a fundraising rate that would certainly be very impressive indeed. He also added 70,000 donors, a very substantial indication of a broad reach in the electorate." Right Wing News was also impressed: "[F]rom where I'm sitting, raising roughly $4.8 million in about 3 weeks isn't bad. It's a good indication that he'll probably be able to raise roughly $18-$25 million in the 4th quarter, which would be a very solid quarter. ... The verdict on Fred's numbers: Good, but not spectacular."
In less positive Thompson blogging, AmSpec Blog's Jennifer Rubin challenges Howard Kurtz' claim that local media have given Thompson more positive coverage than national media: "The local press has been very tough. ... he gaffes from Florida were widely remarked upon negatively in the Florida press and, of course, the NH Union Ledger excoriated him for missing the debates there. There might be an argument that the entire press corps doesn't get him but holding up the local press as defenders of Thompson is just spin."
DEM FIELD: At Least We Can All Agree It's A Dead Heat In IA
Nobody seems terribly impressed with Newsweek's 9/29 poll showing Barack Obama with a 28% - 24% lead over Hillary Clinton among likely Democratic caucus goers. Pollster.com's Mark Blumenthal notes that at the usual 95% confidence level, the +/- 7% MOE for the poll means: "that the probability of an Obama lead based on the Newsweek poll is about 50%. In other words, the odds of Obama 'leading' on this poll are no better than a coin-flip, if we were to take repeated samplings of exactly the same design."
Matthew Yglesias notes that the MOE isn't even the most dubious parts of the poll: "For something like this, uncertainty about the likely voter screen are probably going to be a bigger problem than sampling error anyway. ... But even more to the point, in a close, multi-candidate race the actual method used by the caucuses to allocate delegates starts to make a big difference. This method is, especially on the Democratic side, very complicated and tactical voting can start to make a big difference."
DEM FIELD II: We Sometimes Forget There Are Still People Who Haven't Heard Of Obama
Open Left's Chris Bowers combines data from Polling Report, Survey USA, and Rasmussen to produce Electoral College vote totals for the Dem frontrunners against Mitt Romney and Rudy Giuliani. The Romney results include:
Clinton 367 - 163 Romney
Obama 344 - 186 Romney
Edwards 362 - 176 Romney
The Giuliani results include:
Giuliani 327 - 211 Edwards
Giuliani 297 - 229 Obama
Clinton 261 - 235 Giuliani
Matthew Yglesias doesn't see much value in the numbers: "Whatever Chris Bowers' state-by-state polling may show, can't we all agree that Rudy Giuliani is not going to beat Barack Obama in Massachusetts? ... What we're learning with that post of Chris' are two things: (1) is that Hillary Clinton is plenty electable, and (2) Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani are better known than Barack Obama and John Edwards. Nothing else."
CLINTON: Why Are We The Only Ones Convinced Webb Is The Next VP Of These United States?
Taylor Marsh was the first to report Hillary Clinton would be co-sponsoring an amendment with Sen. James Webb (D-VA) prohibiting the use of funds for military operations against Iran without explicit Congressional authorization. The announcement comes a week after Clinton took harsh netroots criticism for voting for a Lieberman-Kyl amendment designating Iran's Revolutionary Guard a terrorist organization. Webb voted against the amendment. Marsh comments: "Joining Webb in co-sponsoring this legislation is critically important and a progressive move."
MyDD's Todd Beeton tracks the story and adds: "If anything demonstrates Clinton's sly ability to wage a general election campaign while waging a primary election campaign all as a sitting senator, it's this maneuver from Lieberman to Webb in a few short days." The Washington Note's Steve Clemons blogs: "Hillary Clinton needs to apply her ascending political weight to the passage of the Webb resolution. It is not enough to just support a resolution and watch it languish. This is a measure that needs to be passed and sent to the White House to rob legitimacy from any conflict Cheney and his followers might engineer in the waning days of this administration."
Even HRC-doubter Matthew Yglesias allows: "The political instincts that led her to vote for Lieberman-Kyle remain troubling, but this is obviously a big step forward."
CLINTON II: We've Seen This Movie Before
The netroots may not be huge fans of Hillary Clinton, but they dislike MSM HRC bashing even more. New York Times 9/30 items by Frank Rich and Maureen Dowd attacking Clinton on 'authenticity' and 'nepotism' drew lefty blog ire. For her efforts, Dowd earned 'Wanker of the Day' honors from Atrios. Other reactions include:
TAPPED's Scott Lemieux: "Frank Rich is once again trotting out asinine tautologies about the meaningless issue of Hillary Clinton's "authenticity." ... it's amazing to see Rich discussing the "conventional wisdom" of the 2000 campaign without discussing is own considerable role in the kneecapping of Gore."
Talk Left's Jeralyn Merritt goes after NYT's Patrick Healy for criticizing Clinton's laugh: "The implication: Hillary is a witch. As Media Matters has reported, Healy has been doing hit pieces on Democratic candidates for years while giving Rudy Giuliani a pass.
CLINTON III: If Only They Could Get 14,000 To Show Up For A Raider Game
A Left Coaster contributor reports from a Hillary Clinton 'block party' in Oakland, CA: "The most surprising thing to me was the crowd. I would imagine Sen. Barack Obama probably draws bigger crowds, but I was somewhat taken aback by the number of people that showed up. Someone who was making announcements claimed that the crowd was around 14,000 (this San Jose Mercury News article mentions a figure of 13,000, which, according to the article is a little bigger than the crowd that Obama evidently attracted in Oakland several months ago). ... One other interesting note about the crowd - even though African Americans constitute a greater percentage of the population in Oakland than Whites, the crowd seemed to have more Whites than African Americans."
EDWARDS: Campaigning On A Hsu String Budget
TAPPED's Garance Franke-Ruta reports on a John Edwards conference call with Joe Trippi and Jonathan Prince: "the campaign is moving in a direction of intensifying its anti-Washington argument as a way of trying to draw sharper distinctions between John Edwards and Hillary Clinton, taking advantage of the recent Norman Hsu fundraising scandal and Clinton's defense of lobbyists to portray her as part of 'the corroded busted rigged system of Washington,' as Trippi described it."
Franke-Ruta comments: "It seems to me that it would be political malpractice if the Obama campaign did not try to draw a contrast with Edwards in the months ahead on the topic of general election financial viability, and to sow concerns about Edwards' electability on the very financial ground upon which he has chosen to make his stand against Clinton. The Edwards-Clinton financial fight outlined by the Edwards campaign today would seem to work only in the absence of a third alternative, a candidate (Obama) who is not taking lobbyist money or bringing in the bulk of his donations through bundled large-dollar donations, and who has proved himself eminently financially fit for a general election fight."
Also talking Edwards and viability, Daily Kos' in house legal expert Adam B looks at the implications of Edwards pledge to accept matching funding: "The real cap issue is the overall spending cap for the primaries, which lasts from the start of your campaign through the end of the Convention in late August (when you're no longer seeking the nomination), and it's believed to be around $50M for 2008."
More Adam B: "As to that sum, Edwards spent $9.8M over the first six months, and is estimated to have spent about $8M more this quarter. Subtract from that the exempt expenditures, and he's got $33-35M left to spend between now and next August. ... By way of comparison, by eschewing the public financing program John Kerry was able to raise and spend $175,335,576 prior to the end of the 2004 Convention, and transferred an additional $40 million or so to various Democratic party entities."
Open Left's Chris Bowers notes the low state cap in IA (around $1.5 mil.) and sees opportunity to change standard Dem practice: "If Edwards were to rise in Iowa because of a well-executed cable buy that kept him under the spending limits while other candidates went hog-wild on broadcast but were stagnant in the polls, it could be one of those moments in campaigning that really changes institutional culture and hopefully making Democratic campaigns more innovative and efficient."
OBAMA: Against Fake Change
Commenting on the text of Barack Obama's 9/28 Howard university speech, Andrew Sullivan blogs: "He is very, very careful not to get too angry as a black candidate. Perhaps too careful for his core message: real change. What he needs to do is find a way to explain how serious he is about change while explaining that he alone can overcome the boomer polarization that has prevented it."
The Washington Monthly's Kevin Drum isn't quite sure what Sullivan is talking about: "I hear this a lot, but I wonder if it misreads the American mood at the moment. Sure, the public is ready for "real change," but what kind of change? There are several obvious possibilities: A change from George Bush. Yes, definitely. But all three of the major Democratic candidates offer this. ... A change from movement conservatism. Ditto. ... A change from the the bitter polarization of recent years. This is obviously what Obama is hoping for, but how deep is the evidence for this? I've seen very little evidence that the American public is yearning for a round of Kumbaya. ... Change from the "I'm on a mission from God" style of leadership. ... From this perspective, Hillary Clinton is the agent of change, not Obama."
Later, Matthew Yglesias tries to set Drum straight: "I think the relevant idea here isn't 'an end to polarization' nearly so much as it is an end to what Obama has referred to as 'the smallness of our politics.' In this frame, partisanship isn't being contrasted to finer-grained efforts to find compromise nearly so much as it's being contrasted to the pursuit of broad thematic goals rather than politics as trench warfare in which the fighting is fierce but nothing ever happens."
Howard Dean WH '04 supporters were quick to discount Obama's number of new donors. Open Left's Chris Bowers notes: "He also broke Dean's record for campaign donors in a primary, although since a decent amount of that comes from people paying to get into campaign events, he is still well-off Dean's overall donation record." MyDD's Jerome Armstrong adds: "Obama's growth has trailed off though, in terms of comparison, from the previous quarters."
THOUGHT OF THE DAY: Like A Giuliani Supporter At A Family Research Council Meeting
Reacting to another use of the 'like a frog in a pot of boiling water' metaphor James Fallows challenges his readers:
Summary of the undisputed science on this point: ... If you put it in a pot of tepid water and turn on the heat, the frog will climb out -- if it can -- as soon as it gets uncomfortably warm. ... I will give a reward -- maybe some nice Chinese wine? -- to the person who comes up with the best simple metaphor for the underlying idea: that people get habituated to worsening circumstances that they'd reject if they considered them afresh. Only catch: the metaphor, unlike the frog story, can't violate the known facts. I bet that the whole topic of bad marriages would yield some possibilities.
LEST WE FORGET: Move Over Oprah
Working AssetsAdam Klaus noticed a 500 vote registration surge from an incoming Rock the Vote widget and investigated who was creating all these new voters:
It was, in fact, the Tyra Banks Show. Indeed, the registrations were coming from the website of the talk show hosted by none other than former supermodel and host of America's Next Top Model Tyra Banks. Her guest today was presidential contender Barack Obama, giving his first daytime talk show interview since declaring his candidacy. ... In addition to grilling the Senator on the contents of his iPod, his first date with Michelle, and the nuances of his plans for redeploying US troops from Iraq, she did something else: Tyra asked her audience to go to her website and register to vote."
Posted by Conn Carroll at October 2, 2007 12:52 PM
The Watergate · 600 New Hampshire Ave., NW
Washington, DC 20037
202-739-8400 · fax 202-833-8069
NationalJournal.com is an Atlantic Media publication.
