October 23, 2007

10/23: The Big Five vs. Snow White And The Seven Dwarfs

Just recently as a few weeks ago the two WH '08 fields could sill both described as contest between the big threes (Rudy Giuliani, Mitt Romney, and Fred Thompson for the GOP and Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, and John Edwards for the Dems). Now that's all changed. Considering Huckabee's "rock star reception" at the Values Voters Summit, and McCain's recent debate success, the GOP field has become a wide open race between five credible contenders: Huckabee, McCain, Giuliani, Romney, and Fred Thompson. National Review's Byron York examines each candidate's chances and concludes: "There are still more than ten weeks to go before the first voters head to the caucuses in Iowa. After this weekend, it is a big and wide-open race."

Things have moved in the opposite direction on the Dem side. Clinton's dominance in recent polling (CNN pegged her at 51% 10/17) has freed Dem primary voters from only considering Obama and Edwards as the only alternatives to Clinton. Open Left's Chris Bowers looks at Chris Dodd's rapid rise in online straw polls and comments: "it might also show that growing numbers of the blogosphere are starting to view both the Edwards and Obama campaigns as long shots too, so if you are going to support a long shot there is no need to restrict your choices to the second tier."

CLINTON: Smear Tested

IA Independent caught up with Hillary Clinton in Carroll, IA, 10/20 and got responses to four questions including, "On Sept. 12, 2001, I think most Americans assumed that by Oct. 20, 2007, there would have been another major terrorist attack on our soil. ... In your estimation, why hasn't that happened? Has the Bush administration maybe done some things that are good to prevent it or was the threat exaggerated from the beginning?"

Clinton responded: "They've attacked many other places. They've attacked American targets, and I think there are lots of reasons at work here. ... They're also very patient. Just because we haven't been attacked doesn't mean that they're not engaged in doing whatever they can to bring that about. ... There is nothing fancy about them. We've got to figure out how to be smarter."

Also talking HRC and foreign policy, Open Left's Matt Stoller notes HRC needs to update her Iraq issues page since it still touts her sponsorship of a bill de-authorizing the Iraq by ... 10/11/07. Fellow Open Lefter Chris Bowers tracks HRC's statements on her Iraq AUMF vote and concludes: "I feel exhausted by this battle of attrition between progressives and Clinton over the way she votes on Iraq and Iran. If it is this difficult to push her on public statements on she votes on Iraq and Iran, [how] difficult will it be to actually influence her to change policy in those, or other, areas? ... At some point, Clinton is going to have to develop a language to accurately and succinctly describe where she stands on these issues, or else the trench warfare will continue indefinitely."

At TAPPED, Ezra Klein tackles the perception that HRC is more polarizing than her Dem primary opponents: "At this point in the 2004 cycle, John Kerry's unfavorables were between 13% and 20% -- by the time the election rolled around, he was in the mid-40s, posting numbers pretty comparable to Hillary's. ... So that's the question: Not whether Hillary Clinton is more polarizing right this second. ... But whether she'll be more polarizing than John Edwards after eight months of haircut and hedge fund smears, or Barack Obama, after an election full of madrassa insinuations. Clinton's numbers probably reflect the end point of that process -- she's been smeared with maximum energy and efficiency for 15 years now. Edwards and Obama haven't, but if either captures the nomination, the GOP's attack machine will boot up, and do to them exactly what it did to John Kerry.

DODD: No Really ... You Heard It Here First... Doddmania Is Here!!!

Chris Dodd's promise to filibuster the Senate's FISA bill over telecom company surveillance immunity has catapulted him into second place in Daily Kos' 10/07 straw poll. Fire Dog Lake's Jane Hamsher blogs: "Dodd wiped the floor with everyone in the latest Kos straw poll, taking 21% of the vote (up from 7% last month). Edwards dropped by 8%, Obama by 5%, and Hillary by 2%. Dodd raised $150,000 in donations from small donors in twenty four hours last week after his decision to filibuster. ... Reward good behavior."

The Nation's Ari Melber blogs on the impact of Dodd's dKos rise: "Endorsements don't cut ice in the blogosphere, of course, so those posts probably don't convert many readers. But they do legitimize Dodd as a viable candidate - a hurdle he's had trouble surmounting. When a politico like Moulitsas validates an underdog candidate, his readers are more likely to take a second look."

Open Left's Chris Bowers looks at Dodd's inability to make similar gains in other online straw polls and comments: "I think it shows quite clearly that the blogosphere is not of one mind on anything, and isolated islands and fragmentation might be emerging to a degree they did not in the past. ... it might also show that growing numbers of the blogosphere are starting to view both the Edwards and Obama campaigns as long shots too, so if you are going to support a long shot there is no need to restrict your choices to the second tier."

TAPPED's Sam Boyd, however, doesn't see what the big deal is: "Basically, I just don't get his campaign. What's his elevator pitch? Sure, he's somewhat more liberal on some issues than the big three candidates and he has a longer record on them, but that's hardly enough to make it clear that he's the best candidate."

OBAMA: The Wheels Are Coming Off

Barack Obama has failed to quell growing netroots concerns over his campaign's inclusion of gospel singer Donnie McClurkin in Obama's "Embrace the Change" SC gospel concert tour. Earl Ofari Hutchinson posted the first netroots criticism of Obama's decision to include McClurkin blogging: "Democratic Presidential candidate Barack Obama ripped a page straight from the Bush campaign playbook with his announced upcoming three date barnstorm tour through South Carolina with notorious gay basher, gospel singer Donnie McClurkin." After weathering strong criticism through 10/22, Obama finally issued a statement late 10/22 "strongly denouncing" McClurkin's views.

From Obama: "I strongly believe that African Americans and the LGBT community must stand together in the fight for equal rights. And so I strongly disagree with Reverend McClurkin's views and will continue to fight for these rights as President of the United States to ensure that America is a country that spreads tolerance instead of division."

Obama's failure to disinvite McClurkin from the tour left his netroots critics upset:

• The Huffington Post's Earl Ofari Hutchinson: "How hard will Obama fight as president for tolerance, specifically against anti gay bigotry? This is the supreme litmus test for any candidate that purports to champion diversity and tolerance. It's even more of a test, or challenge for Obama, given the depth of homophobia among many mega black ministers, and many of those in their congregations. Obama desperately wants and need their votes in his fight with Hillary Clinton, who continues to widen the gap over him in the political life and death struggle to win over black voters. ... My call still stands. Barack demand that McClurkin repent and save himself from his gay bashing ways, or cancel your appearance with him.
• Jack and Jill PoliticsJill Tubman: "Obama's fallen down -- into a dark ditch where church and sexuality, well, don't necessarily meet as friends. Frankly, it's hard to imagine the Clinton team stumbling this badly given the sensitivity of this topic in the black community. ... For the Obama team to "repudiate" the gospel tour and/or Donnie McClurkin as Earl Ofari Hutchinson advises? Well, this would probably a move that would be poorly received in the black community ... I think Obama's best hope is that McClurkin will step down from the tour and decline to be embroiled in further controversy. ... It wouldn't sit well with the older female church-going, reliably voting demographic. In getting back up, the question is how Obama will balance their opinions with that of other progressives."
• AMERICAblog's John Aravosis: "Funny how Obama is a big supporter of civil rights when blacks are being maligned, but not so much when gays are the victims. ... If you're afraid to lead, Senator, then maybe you're not the leader we thought you were. Huge mistake. More to come. Much more. All week."
• Atrios: "Love the Gay, Love the Gay Haters. What is up with the Obama campaign."
• Talk Left's Big Tent Democrat: "This was a baby that could not be divided. Obama's reaction simply does not work. All year I have stated that Obama's political team is awful. This is confirmation of my judgment."
• MyDD's Todd Beeton: "I have to say, whether or not you feel the inclusion of McClurkin in this fundraiser for Obama is a deal breaker, Obama's inability to avoid this foreseeable bump in the road at the very least contributes to the growing crisis in confidence people seem to be feeling about Obama lately."

At deadline Daily Kos had posted zero front page items on the story and had not promoted any of the user diaries on the issue to the "Recommended Diaries" section.

OBAMA II: The All Important Drunk White College Kid Demographic

Matthew Yglesias links to the following Josh Green analysis on the impact of Stephen Colbert's un-satirical filing for the Dem SC primary:

In the Democratic primary, Colbert's best bet is the Second District, which encompasses most of the capital city of Columbia, and, more important, has the highest concentration of college students. Though it's less Democratic than the Sixth District, it has a far higher proportion of white voters, which, in a Democratic primary, is exactly who Colbert needs to target. Even better, Columbia is its own media market. Colbert probably won't have Obama-like fundraising prowess. But an Internet campaign ought to be able to raise enough cash to run a few well-targeted ads (here again the drunken-college-student demographic could prove valuable)

Yglesias comments: "In this context, though, a Colbert race is probably objectively pro-Hillary, since his most likely supporters are going to be people whose votes Obama needs."

GOP FIELD: It's The Economy Stupids

Conservatives are still sorting out the fallout from 10/19-20 Values Voters Summit. RedState's Erick Erickson and AmSpec Blog's Philip Klein both report the "influential social conservatives who comprise the Arlington Group" wanted to coalesce behind Mitt Romney following the conference, but felt they could not do so after Mike Huckabee's "rock star reception."

Klein identifies which leaders are leaning which direction: "James Dobson of Focus on the Family likes Mitt Romney, Gary Bauer of American Values prefers Fred Thompson, and Don Wildmon of the American Family Association likes Huckabee. Tony Perkins of the Family Research Council is still on the fence, but nearing a decision."

Both Klein and Erickson report social conservatives would love to unite around Huckabee, but fear he is unacceptable to the business wing of the party. Erickson blogs: "The social conservatives do not want to rally around Huckabee because he is as distasteful to fiscalcons as Rudy is to socons. ... While the media has been filled with stories about the socons ready to bolt from the GOP if Rudy is the nominee, the real story and the untold story is that the business community is even more ready to bolt from the GOP. For the last eight years they've watched as the socons have scored every significant win on the right - stem cells, judges, etc. Only against Labor have the fiscal guys scored wins. But there have been no budget cuts, no culling of pork, steel subsidies, etc. ... The fiscal guys see the writing on the wall. They see Hillary [Clinton]'s position. And they are just about ready to cut a deal."

Klein's sources tell a similar story: "If we don't support Huckabee we tick off religious conservatives. If we push Huckabee we tick off everyone else. It's a tough situation to be in."

Looking ahead to the general election The Corner's Kathryn Jean Lopez watches Clinton's new 'Trap Door' ads which "stok[e] middle-class anxieties on wages and healthcare" and blogs: "Hillary is striking a raw nerve. The GOP needs to rebut the phony statistics and respond to middle-class anxiety. I do think part of Mike Huckabee's rise in the polls can be attributed to him talking about this stuff, but so far I don't like his solutions. ... So, while I applaud the energy and wit on display during last night's debate, I'm not sure the Republican candidates are making the sale."

GIULIANI: Speaking Of Economic Issues

Townhall's Matt Lewis interviewed Steve Forbes on Rudy Giuliani's 10/21 debate performance including this on Giuliani's non-support of the Flat Tax: "I think (Giuliani has) made a lot of progress on that." [Forbes] admits Giuliani isn't where he is on the flat tax, but says he's, "moving in that direction."

HUCKABEE: Peacemaker Or Party Remaker?

AmSpec Blog's Philip Klein looks at David Brooks' recent "whitewashing" of Mike Huckabee including this line from Brooks: "each of the top-tier candidates makes certain parts of the party uncomfortable. Huckabee is the one candidate acceptable to all factions." Klein responds:

Huh? The Club for Growth, a prominent group of economic conservatives, finds Huckabee so unacceptable due to his fiscal record in Arkansas that they created an entire Website to attacking him called "Tax Hike Mike." He received an "F" from the Cato Institute in their annual fiscal report card of governors, ranking him sixth from last. Also not to the liking of small-government conservatives and libertarians, there's his anti-smoking and obesity crusades and the nanny-statism that goes along with it. ... This doesn't even get into the ethics problems he had as governor of Arkansas.

AmSpec's Jennifer Rubin responds: "While I agree he has serious deficiencies for many conservatives on economics and on foreign policy he has a window of opportunity in Iowa and therefore can, even if he is not the eventual nominee, transform the race. ... He enjoys a strong personal appeal there, clearly has won some of the hearts of social conservatives and is making a play for the Fair Tax crowd. His populist economic appeal may not play to Club for Growth but it may resonate better in Iowa. It is a state where big media dollars aren't needed."

AmSpec's James Antle asks: "If Huckabee were to give a speech telling small-government conservatives he respects them, that they have nothing to fear from him, that he cut some taxes and opposed some big-government politicians down in Arkansas, that liberal newspaper editors didn't like him, and he will be good on judges, would that be okay?

Klein responds: "[W]hile Huckabee did sign the Grover Norquist no-tax pledge, his "Club for Greed" line coupled with his populist rhetoric makes him much closer to the Pete Wilson model of running as a pro-choicer, or McCain condemning "agents of intolerance" than it does Giuliani addressing Values Voters this Saturday. Huckabee is really trying to reinvent the economic message of the GOP in his image, and I don't think Giuliani is trying to turn the party into a pro-choice party."

Antle fires back: "This too is a matter of perspective. A lot of pro-lifers fear Giuliani will end up pushing the party in a more pro-choice direction whether he intends to or not. They don't have anything like the business wing of the GOP or even the Club for Growth to work effectively against that shift -- they only have votes and volunteers they can threaten to withhold."

ROMNEY: Too Much The Business Man ... Or Too Little

Campaign Standard's Matthew Continetti recommend's Ryan Lizza's New Yorker profile of Mitt Romney, particularly Lizza's discussion of Romney's "consultant mentality" which Lizza dubs "Bainism." Continetti comments: " To carry Lizza's formulation a step further, in order to win the Republican nomination, the product that consultant Romney had to "reinvent" was ... himself. The 2008 GOP primaries will test many propositions, including the idea that winning in politics is like winning in business."

AmSpec's Jennifer Rubin links and adds: "Although we sometimes disparage those who have lived most of their life in the public sector and long for someone to bring a businesslike approach to government, Lizza points out that the two professions don't always equate. A fascinating read."

Not commenting on the Lizza article, Townhall's Patrick Ruffini urges Romney to embrace his business success past: "In all the ads we've seen so far, where is Romney the incredibly successful businessman - the most successful one in North America according to Jim Cramer? Romney the father of five? (this one's only made the occasional cameo before social conservative audiences). The guy who was home with his wife doing his HBS homework while George Bush was out partying? (Okay, go light on the last part in the primaries.) Or the guy who saved the Olympics? ... I like Mitt Romney. But I feel icky whenever I hear him debate. He needs to remind people why they liked him to begin with."

THOMPSON: Too Cool For School

NRO's Jim Geraghty posts Team Fred Thompson spin on their weak Values Voters Summit straw poll finishing: "We didn't play, we never mobilized online, we didn't do anything We didn't transport people in, we didn't try to stuff the ballot. This is part of an overall strategy put forth by [campaign manager]Bill [Lacy]. If you participate in one, they expect you to participate in all of the straw polls. ... By all accounts, Huckabee electrified the room, and we kind of expected that. Fred did what he needed to do, which was get a little more personal, and talk about where he was coming from."

RedState's Erick Erickson is a little less sanguine about Thompson's strategy: "Fred, I've run a lot of campaigns in the past decade. I may have never run a Presidential race, but by God what I'm seeing from you are classic novice mistakes. Fred, you've bought into the hype. You thought people really wanted a guy who was too cool to care. You really seem to think people want a guy who really seems uninterested in the job. ... People are getting the impression that you don't want the job at all, or at least you seem that way. You're not even trying Fred. And if you think you are trying and that's your best effort, then get on out of the race because you're starting to waste our time."

Talking to Thompson spokeswoman Karen Hanretty after 10/21's debate, The Corner's Kathryn Jean Lopez comes away with the impression the Thompson campaign intends to step up the intensity: "Thompson isn't pulling a disappearing act this time. Hanretty points out that Thompson will be working in Florida today and tomorrow; South Carolina Wednesday; he will be in Iowa Saturday."

THOUGHT OF THE DAY: Campaign Finance Has Loopholes?

Mickey Kaus looks at "little Google ads are cropping up" next to "Hillary Clinton" searches and theorizes:

Why are these ads significant? 1) They seem to me to be surprisingly effective as a way of spreading dirt. 2) They seem to represent a surprisingly large hole in the campaign finance laws. After all, they are advertisements for a publication. They aren't campaign expenditures. They're simply telling potential customers about an article, which just happens to be an article spreading scandal about the Clintons. In the same way, ads for some Michael Moore films just happen to undermine George Bush. But, unlike Michael Moore films, the enterprise these Google ads are promoting is itself typically exempted from the campaign finance regime under the so-called "media exemption." So why doesn't some unabashedly non-neutral rich person buy up a lot of media properties--and then start spending tens of millions on ads promoting "scoops" that just happen to damage candidates the rich person opposes?

LEST WE FORGET: Chuck Todd, Corporate Stooge

Reacting to his exclusion from the next NBC debate, Mike Gravel blogs at The Huffington Post: "When my staff called NBC directly to find out why I was now barred from attending, Chuck Todd, NBC news' political director, told us that there were three criteria we did not meet, namely that I had not campaigned in New Hampshire and/or Iowa at least 14 times in the past year, that I was not polling at 5% and that I hadn't raised $1 million."

More Gravel: "NBC's decision is proof that our corporate media do not want a genuine debate over our impending war with Iran. ... The fact that NBC is owned by General Electric, one of the world's leading military contractors, is frightening and certainly smacks of censorship directed at the most outspoken critic of the influence that the military-industrial complex holds over this great nation. In the past decade, GE has benefited financially from the global war on terrorism and currently holds almost $2 billion in military contracts."

Posted by Conn Carroll at October 23, 2007 12:31 PM