October 22, 2007

10/22: Good Enough?

Coverage out of the 10/20's Values Voters conference neatly sums up the state of the race so far. Whether it is the NRA or social conservatives, Rudy Giuliani continues to go before hostile crowds and do just enough to prevent open revolt from that particular constituency of the party. While Mitt Romney won the online VV straw poll, and Mike Huckabee won among onsite voters, conference attendees told other conservatives present that while Giuliani was not their first choice, they would hold their nose and vote for him in the general if asked to do so. With Sam Brownback out of the race, social conservatives best bet for the nomination rests with Huckabee. If they fail to unite around him, they will have no right to complain if Giuliani eventually prevails.

GOP DEBATE: McCain Wasn't At Woodstock?

If Bill Kristol is right, and the winner of a Red Sox-challenged debate will be the candidate that best produces "a memorable soundbite or a winning exchange," then John McCain won 10/21's Orlando, FL, Fox News debate with this hit on Hillary Clinton:

I have fought against out-of-control and disgraceful spending that's been going on and I have saved the American people as much as $2 billion at one stroke. In case you missed it, a few days ago, Senator Clinton tried to spend $1 million on the Woodstock Concert Museum. Now, my friends, I wasn't there. I'm sure it was a cultural and pharmaceutical event. I was tied up at the time.

While cases for Rudy Giuliani, Fred Thompson, and Mike Huckabee were made, The Corner's Kathryn Jean Lopez had the most representative summary: "McCain had a great night. Fred shined in a way he hadn't yet. Rudy and Mitt were steady. It was a good night, period, for Republicans. The field is optimistic about America while realistic about the threats we face at a time of war. "

DEBATE GIULIANI: ?/11

• The Corner's Kathryn Jean Lopez: "Overlooked? From a reader: Rudy didnt mention 9/11 once tonight. Liberals constantly use 9/11 against him, I think tonight he defend his record without using it at all."


• AmSpec Blog's John Tabin: "He's now consistently excelling in the debates, and was particularly strong on education.


• Power Line's Paul Mirengoff: "Giuliani had another good night. Several times, he successfully tied his answers to quotes from or references to Ronald Reagan. When he's doing that (instead of rehearsing his New York city crime fighting record), it's a sure sign that he's successfully defending himself on the merits as a conservative."


• The Corner's Mark Hemingway: "I still want to see Rudy hit some home runs that will erase all doubts about his conservative credentials. I fear it won't happen, but base hits win ballgames, and Rudy is still the most consistent guy in these debates."


• Right Wing News: "The man has charisma and comes across well, but he's not a conservative, and he has no good answer for the weak spots in his right wing game. ... Rudy got asked if he was a conservative -- and he dodged the question. I think that says a lot."


• NRO's Jim Geraghty: "The first time I thought Rudy Giuliani could be president was at his 2004 convention speech, where he hit all kinds of emotional notes just right. Similar performance tonight - maybe heavy on laughs - but it worked."


• The Corner's Mark Levin: "I just don't see how it can be said, after nearly every debate, that Rudy won when he cannot distance himself from his record. ... Rudy's extreme positions on a number of issues cannot be squared by someone who continually wraps himself in the Reagan legacy. ... But there is serious doubt among conservatives."

DEBATE HUCKABEE: There's A Little Bit To Find Funny In Pres. Hillary Clinton

• Right Wing News: "Huckabee has more raw charisma than anyone on the stage, but the format just kills him because he doesn't get as much time to talk."


• NRO's Jim Geraghty: "This guy can sell ice to Eskimos. Kept his momentum, and played against his 'the funny one' typecasting with his argument, 'there's nothing funny about Hillary Clinton as Commander in Chief.'"


• The Corner's Mark Hemingway: "He's improved as the campaign has worn on. I don't know if he has the funds or can overcome his deficit in the polls to become the nominee, but if I were the Republican candidate he'd be at the very top of my list of potential VPs. He's the only guy on the stage who seems consistently capable of reaching Joe Sixpack.


• Power Line's Paul Mirengoff: "Mike Huckabee recovered from a rare off-key performance in the last debate and once again was his commanding yet likeable self."

DEBATE MCCAIN: You Can Teach An Old Dog New Tricks

• NRO's Jim Geraghty: "I think the aspect I liked most was that he could jab at his rivals, but it never seemed too nasty or cranky. He's got stature. He's a well-established brand name, and I wonder if he's turning into everyone's second or third choice."


• The Corner's Mark Hemingway: "McCain really deserves to be back in the top tier. His performance tonight was very strong, he was nimble and funny, and made a good case for why conservative voters need to reevaluate him."


• AmSpec Blog's Jennifer Rubin: "McCain is just a delight --funny(ok hysterical) and a real grown up. Too bad few are watching him but his Woodstock line is going to be the repeated clip."


• Right Wing News: "He started off in a very subdued, almost somnolent manner, but he picked up steam as the night went on and he had the line of the night ... Ironically, McCain who is infamous for selling conservatives out on critical issues at the drop of a hat, came across as a man standing on principle in the debate."


• The Corner's Kathryn Jean Lopez: "It doesn't have to be an age thing, it can be an experience thing. What a great transition he made from jokes to seriousness, to a great line. And a standing ovation. McCain is on. McCain could be the comeback man yet."


• Townhall's Matt Lewis: "Tonight, John McCain "the Statesman" showed up. He was energetic enough to show his virility, yet calm enough to demonstrate gravitas. He did a terrific job of balancing humor with seriousness, and his classy brand of humor served to underscore his serious points."


• The Corner's Kathryn Jean Lopez: "McCain in the Spin Room ... He was good on immigration, telling Hannity, I got your message, my friend. Talked about securing the borders. I've heard him say this a few times - I'd like to hear a lot more of McCain on his lessons learned from the spring."

DEBATE ROMNEY: No Lawyers Were Consulted In Preparation For This Debate

• Right Wing News: "Mitt was off-key all night and this was definitely one of his weakest performances."


• NRO's Jim Geraghty: "One of his strongest performances, but it seemed like somebody put a "kick me" sign on his back right before he went on. On the other hand, it's a sign of where he is in the race that Thompson, Giuliani, and McCain see value in attacking him at this moment."


• The Corner's Mark Hemingway: "Romney wasn't bad, but wasn't particularly good either. He didn't do well in the last debate thanks to his "consult the lawyers" answer and I was kind of looking for him to bounce back."


• The Brody File: "Mitt Romney seemed to be on defense all night. He didn't really attack the other candidates at all and went out of his way to clear up his lawyer comment from the last debate. ... It wasn't a bad performance. He made his points but nothing distinguishable."


• AmSpec Blog's Andrew Cline: "As I watched the more important event tonight, I'm wondering if Mitt Romney mentioned the Red Sox at all during the debate. Anyone? Just wondering if he acknowledged that the team from his home state was playing for the pennant and that maybe he'd rather be somewhere else tonight."


• AmSpec Blog's Jennifer Rubin: "McCain essentially called Romney a liar to his face. He said(operating from notes and not a transcript): 'You've been trying to fool people about your record. I don't want you to try to fool people about mine.' Romney didn't really respond or even register any emotion. That in a nutshell is his greatest weakness."


• The Corner's Kathryn Jean Lopez posts proof Romney, not Rudy, was the first to quote PJ O'Rourke on health care(from Spartanburg, SC, 2/22/07): "Look at Europe - as government gets bigger and bigger and taxes go up and up and they took over health care at other places. Well, their economy slows. Their unemployment rate's almost twice ours. They create almost no new jobs. If government takes over health care, those inimitable words of P.J. O'Rourke come to mind: 'If you think health care's expensive now, wait till it's free.'"

DEBATE THOMPSON: Blog En Vivo Del Debate Repubicano

• The Brody File: "Fred Thompson looked much better tonight. It's the most aggressive he's been to date. He came out swinging against Giuliani."


• The Corner's Rich Lowry: "Fred Hits the Lazy Question Out of the Park."


• The Corner's Mark Hemingway: "In the last debate, Thompson started out shaky and finished strong. In this debate, he started out really strong and ended up shaky as the debate went on ... He was better this time around, but not improved enough to convince anybody he's the horse to back."


• The Corner's Kathryn Jean Lopez: "That Fred hit on Rudy from abortion on down, was a sting ray."


• Right Wing News: "The Winner ... Fred Thompson: Fred put on a much better performance than last time around. He was funnier, snappier, had more energy, and came across as more genuinely conservative than Mitt or Rudy. However, he does need to stop looking at his notes so often."


• Townhall's Matt Lewis: "I think Fred Thompson did quite well. Once again, he ended strong. People tend to remember the first thing and the last thing they see, and if this is true, Fred Thompson had a very good night."


• Power Line's Paul Mirengoff: "Thompson's ability to slug it out with Giuliani, coupled with overall improvement in the quality of his answers, makes him one of tonight's winners. ... if this debate is remembered at all, it will probably be because Fred Thompson, arguably a sleeping giant, seemed to wake up."

Before the debate, Townhall's Matt Lewis reports: "Hoping to draw in "non-base voters," as well as conservatives, Fred Thompson's campaign will live-blog Sunday night's debate in both English and Spanish. ... This is likely the first time any presidential campaign has live-blogged a debate in Spanish."

HUNTCREDO: Let Brownback Lead You On This Issue

• The Corner's Jonah Goldberg: "What was possibly even worse was turning to the debate and hearing Tancredo and Hunter essentially argue we can solve Social Security, Medicare and healthcare in this country if we get rid of illegal immigrants and free trade. Please."
• The Corner's Kathryn Jean Lopez: "Brownback was right to gracefully bow out before tonight. The others third/fourth tier guys should go. We need to hear more from the candidates in play."

VALUES VOTERS: Passable, Almost Palatable

The headlines from the Family Research Council's Values Voters summit may be about how Mitt Romney eked out a victory over Mike Huckabee in the online straw poll and how Huckabee won among conference attendees 51% to Romney's 10%, but the real story is that while Rudy Giuliani is not their first choice, evangelicals at the conference appear to signal to conservative bloggers present, that they would be satisfied with Giuliani as the nominee. Blogger reports along these lines include:

• RedState's Erick Erickson: "Here's the deal. I've been out roaming the hall talking to people and there is a consensus among the people here that Giuliani did what he had to do to stop a hemorrhage in the general, but he did not pull them to him in the primary. ... That's probably what he needed to do. These are folks who are deeply, deeply skeptical of Rudy. They know he is not one of them. But they also know, as he showed them today, that he'd at least be passable, if not palatable, in the general."
• NRO's Jim Geraghty: "Much like his NRA speech, I think that in terms of the arguments he put forth, Giuliani did about much good as he could do before a skeptical crowd. There were plenty of applause lines on the easy areas of agreement - but after a while, you hit a ceiling."
• Soren Dayton: "Rudy Giuliani did much better than people expected. He probably didn't win any primary votes, but he did a lot of work to solidify him in a general."
• NZ Bear: "Given how potentially hostile this audience might have been, the fact that he received positive applause throughout his delivery that seemed honestly enthusiastic is truly remarkable. ... He won't win the straw poll here, and certainly isn't going to be the first choice of many people in this room. But I think he did everything he possibly could to convince these folks that he wouldn't be as bad an option as they might have feared.
• AmSpec Blog's Philip Klein: "Interestingly, the Giuliani camp should be happy with this result. This is an audience that should be the most hostile to his candidacy, yet he polled better onsite than Duncan Hunter, John McCain and Sam Brownback."
• Townhall's Matt Lewis: "Also interesting is that John McCain finished behind Rudy Giuliani. This underscores the point that in politics, logic leads to conclusions, but emotion leads to action. McCain has been pro-life his entire life, while Giuliani has always been pro-choice. But that doesn't seem to matter when it comes to perception and likeability."
• Campaign Standard's Fred Barnes: "Giuliani appeared slightly nervous at times in delivering his speech, presumably because he was addressing an audience filled with critics. But there were no signs of outright hostility as he spoke, and his speech drew many favorable comments. So his appearance was unquestionably a net plus for his presidential bid."

Also talking Giuliani and evangelicals, RCP Blog's Tom Bevan points us to Ralph Reed answering David Kuo's question, "Do you think an evangelical Christian should have problems voting for Rudy Giuliani given his liberal social policy positions?"

Reed: There are circumstances when an 80 percent friend is not a 20 percent enemy. We will have to await the outcome of the dialogue between Mayor Giuliani and the faith community and voting in some early primaries to know the answer with regard to this race. Religious conservatives should stand on principle but also recognize that a political party is not a church. If they do so, they will be the most effective voting bloc in the nation.

On Huckabee's strong Value Voters conference showing, The Brody File blogs: "

Clearly, the people that actually heard the speeches thought Huckabee was the best candidate there. It would be one thing if Huckabee and Romney were neck and neck for onsite voting but for Huckabee to be such an overwhelming onsite winner, that is saying something. ... Here's what it says. It says that you have social conservatives that are ready to embrace him and he's ready to embrace them. That speech he made on Saturday was electric. I was there. I saw the crowd. They ate it up. ... But let's call a spade a spade. You have Evangelical leaders that are reluctant to back him because he's having a hard time raising money and putting what they see as a top notch organization in place. He needs their support. He's going to have to earn it. If social conservatives really want Huckabee so bad, then they'll need to put their money where their mouths are.

CLINTON: Sleazebag Alarm Needed

Open Left's Mike Lux looks at The Nation's 10/18 story on Hillary Clinton campaign contributor Alan Quasha and concludes: "When I first started to read this article, I was outraged because I know what a sleazebag Quasha is. But it's not at all clear to me how much of a role Quasha is playing in the Clinton campaign. ... I found the article a little frustrating, because it alleges deep connections and sinister motivations without providing much actual documentation. ... I hope this article, flawed as it is, will be a wake-up call for the Clinton campaign to stay away from Quasha and other sleazebags like him."

In other HRC blogging, Pollster.com's Mark Blumenthal tracks reaction to Mark Penn's 10/19 claim that "24 percent of Republican women voters defect because of the emotional element of having a woman nominee." Barack Obama pollster Joel Benensonfires back calling Penn's claim "entirely baseless and refuted by a number of public polls." The Washington Post's Jon Cohen then notes that such an HRC performance "would significantly outperform any Democratic candidate since 1972." Finally, Penn responds citing data showing Clinton's support increasing to 13 percent among Republican women, while undecided "surged to 11 percent, so a total of 24 percent would either vote for her or consider voting for her."

DODD: Obama Sneezes Bigger Than Dodd

DailyKos' founder Markos Moulitsas links to Time reports that Chris Dodd has earned $150K in small contributions since he announced his intention to hold, and maybe even filibuster, the Senate's FISA bill and comments: "If Obama had done this, he would've pulled in far more, yeah. He pulls in far more just by sneezing. But Obama is in another plane of existence. For Dodd, this is pretty big. ... [A]ll the campaigning in the world hasn't put Dodd on the map. This thing -- you know, fighting to restore our tattered Constitution -- very well might."

OBAMA: Not The Audacity They Were Hoping For

Barack Obama is taking heat from the netroots over the inclusion of gospel singer Donnie McClurkin on Obama's "Embrace the Change" SC gospel concert tour. AMERICAblog's John Aravosis writes: "Yes, sucking up to anti-gay bigots and joining them on stage - no, giving them a stage - is certainly defying conventional wisdom as to how a Democrat becomes president. Oh, and McClurkin also believes that gays can, and need to, be 'cured.'"

Open Left's Matt Stoller reacts: "Obama's hanging out with ex-gays crusading against the 'curse of homosexuality', further cementing his strong record of giving no one any reason to vote for him, while Clinton continues with her sloppy campaign that will be unmasked and ripped apart after the Republicans choose their nominee."

Atrios adds: "Well, hanging out with gay haters is one way for Obama to defy conventional wisdom. Call me when "values voters" stop obsessing about genitals touching each other and the Christian value of torture."

Not commenting on the gospel tour, The Huffington Post's Thomas de Zengotita blogs: "

[M]y informant at the rally for Obama in Washington Square Park, NYC, told me it was the most moving public moment she had ever experienced. But she was talking about the expectation that hung over the crowd waiting for him -- their need to believe. When Obama himself got there, she said, he was just "OK." ... That about sums it up. He brings hope because of who he is. But where's the audacity? ... Obama must risk sounding idealistic and naive. That risk authentically belongs to audacious hope, almost by definition. It was built into his candidacy from the beginning. If he takes that risk he will be free.

LA GOV: Almost Speechless

Conservative excitement over Rep. Bobby Jindal's (R-LA) 10/20 LA GOV victory include:

• RedState's Erick Erickson: "Bobby Jindal won tonight. I may live in Georgia now, but I'm Louisianian through and through. This is historic. No one has ever won a gubernatorial primary outright in Louisiana until tonight. I cannot really express what this means to me. ... Today is not a good day for Republicans. It is, but it isn't really. Today is instead a good day for Louisiana and for this country. "
• AmSpec Blog's Quin Hillyer: "It is hard to put into words how joyful I am that Bobby Jindal is now the Governor-Elect of Louisiana. For 36 years I've been waiting for somebody like Jindal to finally take office with the wind behind him and no corrupt shadow governor in his way. ... Louisiana NEEDED this. Louisiana has so much to offer, so much to celebrate, but it has such a bad political legacy to overcome. Jindal really does have the tools to make the state succeed in that effort.
• Townhall's Patrick Ruffini: "I don't care who your candidate for President is. Tonight, Bobby Jindal is our leader. Jindal's 54% first-round victory is an historic mandate for change against the most corrupt political culture in America. ... Epic... historic... ginormous are the words that come easiest to mind tonight."

THOUGHT OF THE DAY: Sell! Sell! Sell!

Reacting to Dana Goldstein's review of The Trap, Matthew Yglesias blogs:

If you ruin your band's sound in an effort to write more radio-friendly songs, you're selling out. If you quit your job on the Hill to start shilling for health insurance companies, you're selling out. When you dumb Veronica Mars down after season two in a desperate bid to gain a bigger audience, you're selling out. But if you just decide at the age of 22 or 23 that there's nothing you're sufficiently passionate about to make you want to give up the stability and prosperity that comes with a corporate career, you're not selling anything out, you're just applying to law school.

And there's really nothing wrong with that. But the nominal self-critique involved in dubbing such activity "selling out" is really a form of self-dramatization and self-praise, carrying with it the implication that of course you could have written the Great American Novel or turned around and inner-city school if only you hadn't been so damn selfish.

LEST WE FORGET: Ouch

The Corner's Kathryn Jean Lopez watches 10/21's GOP debate and quips: "Does It Say Something About Republicans ... that the first debate commercial is for Cialis?"

Posted by Conn Carroll at October 22, 2007 01:00 PM