October 19, 2007

10/19: Hell Hath No Fury...

On the key issues of the day, FISA, Habeas Corpus, Iraq, and Iran, the netroots are feeling ignored by their party's WH '08 frontrunners. And, that frustration is being directed at Barack Obama. While Obama opposes the telecom company immunity the netroots find so offensive in the Senate FISA reauthorization bill, the community has tired of his Johnny-come-lately pronouncements on key issues. DailyKos' founder Markos Moulitsas comments on Obama and FISA: "I'm tired of words. At this point, the only thing that speaks is action."

Obama is not the only WH '08er who hasn't met netroots expectations on the issues listed above. But he was, at one point, seen as the most likely vehicle to champion these issues and fight the Dem establishment embodied in Dem frontrunner Hillary Clinton. The netroots believed (and still do believe), that partnered with a willing and strong candidate they can set the party straight on these issues and take down HRC in the process. Now that Obama has spurned that role he is going to have to deal with their disappointment.

CLINTON: It's True, Many Rural Americans Do Work For Monsanto

Hillary Clinton took some netroots flak for holding her 10/18 "Rural Americans for Hillary" campaign briefing in Monsanto's DC office. Matthew Yglesias blogs: "Of course, invoking the imagery of the family farm and then doing the dirty work of giant companies is nothing new in politics, but this seems like a deliberate effort to stumble into what John Edwards and Barack Obama are trying to say about taking money from lobbyists."

TAPPED's Garance Franke-Ruta adds: "Monsanto is a major employer in Iowa, but this is ridiculous."

DODD: Hold The Phone!

Chris Dodd continued to solidify his status as netroots dark horse favorite 10/18 by responding to community calls to stop the Senate's FISA reauthorization bill from granting telecom companies immunity for cooperating with Bush administration surveillance programs. Early 10/18 Talk Left's Big Tent Democrat cited Dodd's statements against the provision in the bill and pleaded:

Senator Dodd, do what you must, including a filibuster, to stop this evisceration of the separation of powers, of civil liberties, of honesty, fairness and justice. Implore your Dem colleagues, especially your fellow Presidential candidates in the Senate, to join you in this fight for the very principles that are the foundation of the Constitution and our Nation.

Netroots luminaries were quick to echo BTD's call. Atrios blogged: "If you think it's important for Dodd to place a hold on any crappy telecom immunity bill that the Senate comes up with, call Dodd campaign headquarters and request they do it. Doddmania's been bubbling up for awhile now. This could be its moment." Glenn Greenwald added: "Dodd's emphasis in his campaign on constitutional issues -- along with his excellent voting record this year -- has generated significant positive feelings towards his campaign. But demonstrating real leadership on this incomparably important issue would almost certainly generate real, tangible support for his campaign in many circles."

Dodd then announced on his website: "The Military Commissions Act. Warrantless wiretapping. Shredding of Habeas Corpus. Torture. Extraordinary Rendition. Secret Prisons. ... No more. ... I have decided to place a "hold" on the latest FISA bill that would have included amnesty for telecommunications companies that enabled the President's assault on the Constitution by illegally providing personal information on their customers without judicial authorization. I said that I would do everything I could to stop this bill from passing, and I have."

Ecstatic netroots reaction includes:

• Talk Left's BTD: "Thank you Senator Dodd. You make me proud to be a supporter of your candidacy for President."
• Open Left's Chris Bowers: "Chris Dodd has put together an impressive list of accomplishments and issue positions during the past year. ... He is looking pretty good these days. I'd like to hear some arguments on this, both in favor and against."
• Atrios: "If you're in the mood reward good behavior with cash. ... Or, at least, consider signing a petition with your support.
• Fire Dog Lake's Jane Hamsher: "I hope Dodd fights this one like hell."

OBAMA: Sometimes The Blogometer Writes Itself

From the Iraq supplemental fight, to the Iran debate, to restoring habeas corpus, the netroots are beginning to notice that barack Obama is not leading on any of the issues that matter to them and they are not happy about it. Tracking netroots reaction to Obama's belated efforts against telecom immunity in the FISA reauthorization bill, The Huffington Post's Greg Saunders blogs:

Don't get me wrong. I like Barack Obama. If the primary were held today, he'd probably get my vote. But the honeymoon is over in Obamaland and it can't be written off with canned responses about how unreliable early poll numbers are. ... If anyone from the Obama campaign is paying attention, this should serve as a wake-up call. A representative cross section of the liberal blogosphere no longer thinks Barack Obama is willing to stand up to the Bush Administration. ... The Obama campaign has been playing it safe for months now, so it should be no surprise that the base no longer expects him to, in the words of his campaign, "challenge the status quo and get results".

Open Left's Matt Stoller notices a similar trend:

Obama just hired a new senior advisor to handle 'rapid response', John Del Cecato, a partner at David Axelrod's firm. The commentary from Josh Marshall was a withering 'Obama to launch post-1992 operation'. And then, today, on the telecom bill and Dodd's hold, Markos politely noted that Obama has no credibility, that he's not even worth considering as a potential leader (not because he can't lead but because he won't). Marshall followed up with a note on Obama's stance on the FISA bill titled 'Day Late and ...?', and Jane Hamsher called the move 'All Hat and No Cattle.'

This is a group that, by and large, wants anyone but Clinton to get the nomination, so the degree of toxicity here is fairly high. It's a remarkable collapse in credibility, picking up speed recently at an accelerating pace. It goes back to Obama's unreliable behavior during the Lamont campaign, his shrinking violet act during Military Commissions Act, and his constant chiding of the secular left. This basically laid out his approach to movement politics, and his unwillingness to build a power base among people desperate to find some reason, any reason, to support him. ... There seems to be this sense of cynicism about Obama, and it runs deeper every day.

GOP LANDSCAPE: The Sky Isn't Falling

Piecing together MA 05 with other recent developments, Townhall's Patrick Ruffini blogs: "I think we can finally dispense with the talk of 2008 being another 2006 for Democrats. ... This is not a call for celebration. We are still laboring against a significant enthusiasm gap and an unpopular war. But a few important indicators suggest we may have found a bottom. ... These are the vectors I see converging on this conclusion." Ruffini then lists:

• Iraq: We have had many false positives in Iraq. But this time the good news is accompanied by an actual change in strategy. ... There is a constituency for victory. It's may not be a majority, but between the 30th and 50th percentiles of support for the war there seems to be a strong willingness to stick it out if the strategy seems to be working.
• SCHIP: This is not an obvious one, but Gallup says Americans agree with us on the policy. ... What's different is that we've had some counterintuitive poll results showing the public rejecting new Democratic entitlements, especially when means-testing is loose to non-existent. The Hillary baby-bond idea flopped. And the public pretty explicitly wants SCHIP kept at 200% of poverty. The common thread: no new entitlements. If Democrats can't move the needle on their core domestic issues, then what?
• MA-5: No, we shouldn't read overarching national implications into this. But if the "wave" were still in force, it would never have been this close.
• You Don't Get Two: Expanding this point, history is not on the side of repeat waves. Republicans thought 1996 would be another wave until the government shutdown in November '95. 1982 was not another wave. ... Moreover, it's difficult to produce a wave in a Presidential year.
• No Bush to Kick Around Anymore: 2006 was the last year in which a Democrat could effectively run against Bush. It is not possible to do more political damage to Bush. People know he's leaving.

Ruffini concludes: "Is this a case for 2008 as a Republican year? Not yet. But the Democrats' best-case scenario is probably a muted change election like 2000 or 1976."

BROWNBACK: Somewhere Over The Rainbow

The Sam Brownback campaign is no longer with us. Conservative reactions include:

• Townhall's Matt Lewis: "When he got into the race, he promised to take "the yellow brick road" to the White House. Instead, he learned he's not in Kansas anymore ..."
• Captain's Quarters: "His failure, however, calls into question just how powerful the evangelical Right remains. Brownback may have been one of two candidates who most closely tracked with their agenda. ... unless Huckabee really picks up steam, that faction may have only a tenuous claim to the center of the base."
• Campaign Standard's Richelieu: "Romney also wins from a Brownback exit. Brownback's campaign was throwing the sharpest elbows at Romney on the ground in Iowa. That nagging terrier will not be missed by Team Mitt."
• The Brody File: "From a social conservative perspective, Brownback had the resume. Pro-life, pro-traditional marriage, against embryonic stem cell research, the list goes on and on. ... But the rap against Senator Brownback was that he lacked charisma. Put another way: he was a little boring and not all that inspiring. When you have that plus you can't raise much money, that's called game, set, match."
• NRO's Jim Geraghty: "Brownback's campaign never seemed to hit its stride. He got into odd, surprisingly nasty fights with some other candidates, a strangely aggressive and negative style for a positive and decent man. Then he voted first yes, then no, on the immigration bill, and that hurt him badly. "Senator Switchback" was a too-easy derisive nickname."

GIULIANI: More Than Meets The Eye

Soren Dayton pushes back against AP analysis that recent polls show Rudy Giuliani's "support from the GOP's potent right wing is less than meets the eye." Dayton blogs: "Rudy Giuliani holds the lead in-spite of weak support from conservatives. Rudy has found a possibly winning coalition does not involve the most conservative elements of the party. That, dear reader, is a story. That shows that his path to winning the nomination is less-than-tenuous. But the reporter doesn't seem to understand that the goal in a primary is to build coalitions within the party."

MCCAIN: With Brownback Gone, Somebody had To Take Over As Mitt Hounder In Chief

The Brody File previews John McCain's Voter Values Summit remarks: "I have been pro-life my entire public career. I believe I am the only major candidate in either party who can make that claim.... You need only examine my public record to know that I won't ever change my position to fit the politics of the day." Brody comments: "That's a clear swipe at Mitt Romney."

Instapundit reports that Matt Welch's new book, McCain: The Myth of a Maverick is on it's way to his mailbox.

PAUL: And People Say A Dollar Can't Buy You Anything These Days

AmSpec Blog's Philip Klein predicts Ron Paul will win the Value Voters straw poll: "Hear me out. ... In conjunction with the conference, the Family Research Council will conduct a straw poll. A unique feature of this one is that the FRC is opening up voting to anybody over the Internet, provided they give a minimum $1 donation. Given Ron Paul's dominance in online polls, one would have to say he has the early edge -- unless his libertarian supporters are too cheap to pony up a few bucks to vote for their candidate or unwilling to make a donation to the FRC."

ROMNEY: He's Got The Shepherds, But Will The Flock Follow?

Another day, another Hugh Hewitt interview with a a prominent evangelical endorsingMitt Romney . Hewitt blogs on the endorsement Phoenix Seminary theology prof Dr. Wayne Grudem: "This is another huge endorsement for Mitt Romney --one certain to be taken very seriously in evangelical leadership circles."

The Brody File also chips in with their own Romney endorsement news: "The Brody File has learned that Dr. Don Wilton, Senior Pastor At The First Baptist mega Church Of Spartanburg, South Carolina and former President of the South Carolina Baptist Convention has endorsed Mitt Romney." Brody later highlights televangelist Joel Osteen telling Larry King, "I look at people, their character, their values, what they stand for. ... I've heard him say that he believes Jesus is his savior, just like I do." Brody comments: "If Mitt Romney wins the nomination, this week would be considered a turning point where some key evangelical leaders stepped up and basically said Romney's Mormonism is not an issue. Romney has needed this. He's now getting it. An FRC straw poll victory this weekend would be the cherry on top of a very positive week."

Finally, Brody posts Romney's Value Voters speech and comments: "As you read through it, look how many times Mitt Romney mentions the world "family". It's quite a bit. ... Clearly, what Romney is implying is that he's not just talking family values, he has the family to prove it. ... This speech has the makings of a big hit with the crowd. "

ROMNEY II: Past Performance Is No Guarantee Of Future Results

MyManMitt has posted slides from Team Romney's official Q4 fundraising PowerPoint pitch. Slide titles include: "Romney's Strategy: Tested, Proven", "Rudy's Strategy: Unproven"; "Rudy leads the national polls but..."; and "Opportunity for Growth."

AmSpec Blog's Philip Klein links and comments: "In reality, it's impossible to draw comparisons between this race and past nomination battles. The contracted primary schedule has made this a whole new ballgame. Perhaps the Romney strategy will prove successful, but it's a mistake to say it's 'proven.'"

THOMPSON: An Ungentlemanly Question

Townhall's Matt Lewis and Mary Katharine Ham tussled over Jeri Thompson 10/18. Lewis first reported: "For months now, Jeri Thompson has endured the criticism of pundits and opponents, alike. The question has always been whether the criticism was fair, or not ... In the last two days, I have had conversations with three different conservatives who attended Fred Thompson speeches this week. ... It is clear to me that Jeri is hurting -- not helping -- Fred's chances."

Ham responded: "I know she's news, but let's give her a little benefit of the doubt sometimes. She's on our side; she's the wife of a candidate, not a candidate; she'll get plenty of picking from the Left without us helping out."

THOUGHT OF THE DAY: The Power Of Nothing

Talk Left's Big Tent Democrat links to coverage on the collapse of the House FISA bill and comments:

Like Iraq funding, the FISA extension past the February date when the current capitulation bill expires, is a problem for the Bush administration, not the Congress. IF the Congress passes nothing, then the law will revert to the original FISA law that prevailed prior to this summer's capitulation. There is nothing wrong with that, DESPITE the gnashing of teeth from the Bush administration. IF there were, they would not block THIS BILL.

If the Democrats, PARTICULARLY the Progressive Caucus, sticks to its guns, it will either get a good bill, or no bill at all. OF course the preference is a good bill. But after that, no bill at all is eminently preferable to a BAD bill. Frankly, the House bill was not a good bill imo. Nor was it a good bill in the ACLU's opinion. Its demise is nothing to lament. So long as Democrats understand the power of doing nothing.

LEST WE FORGET: Speaking Of Nothing

The Corner's Peter Robinson points us to this Rob LongLA Times whimsical op-ed on the impending Writers Guild of America strike:

As a professional writer, I've always been pretty good at not writing. Not writing, in fact, is one of my chief skills. I can not write anywhere - on a plane, in a coffee shop, in my office - and I often feel that a day spent without not writing is a day wasted. I even keep a notebook by the side of the bed, in case I wake up with an idea at 3 in the morning and don't want to write it down in case I don't forget it. ... So, obviously, the prospect of a writers strike puts me in a curious position.

Posted by Conn Carroll at October 19, 2007 12:42 PM