10/18: He Likes Him, But He Doesn't Like Like Him

With all due respect to Beltway Blogroll, and DailyKos' founder Markos Moulitsas, we just don't agree with Blogroll that, "A presidential endorsement from Markos Moulitsas Zuniga of Daily Kos could change the dynamics of the Democratic race." First of all, as kos points out in this Talking Points Memo interview, he's already pretty much announced his support for Barack Obama (Hillary Clinton is way too 'insider' for kos, John Edwards decision to accept matching funds makes him less competitive in kos' eyes, and while kos likes Chris Dodd's rhetoric, kos just doesn't think Dodd has a chance at the nomination). Also, Daily Kos is nothing like the SEIU. There are no internal blogger rules that forbid some readers members from supporting a candidate after their favorite blogger announces support from someone else. This is a pretty non-comformist bunch.

But kos is still pretty rough on his chosen candidate. He call's Obama's campaign "uninspiring" and says Obama was "no where to be around" on the recent Senate debate on Iran. Kos says Obama could have been the Howard Dean of '08 but unlike Dean, whose rhetoric was about "you have the power," Obama's message has been all about Obama. So for what it is worth, do know that kos supports Obama. But also remember how soft that support really is.

CLINTON: And To Think, Obama Still Has Never Had A Negative Ad Run Against Him

Open Left's Chris Bowers tracks fav/unfav ratings for WH '08ers from both parties and notes: "Every candidate viewed more unfavorably since the campaign started." Bowers continues: "[I]t seems that one of the reasons [Hillary] Clinton is winning is because her ratings have dropped less than other candidates. In fact, her ratings have actually been improving of late."

Bowers theorizes: "[E]very single candidate has seen their numbers drop from the time when their candidacy was first announced or first rumored. After the announcement, people learn more about candidates and media criticism grows harsher. That might actually explain Clinton's rise better than anything else, since she is so well known and opinions on her are so fixed that she had less to fear from the inevitable drop-off. In other words, that people have fixed opinions on her has actually been an asset, rather than a hindrance, to her campaign. ... Clinton, by contrast, is a rock who has been through the meat grinder several times in the past. Things were not going to get worse for her, but they were going to get worse for everyone else."

Also talking about Clinton and her established, negatives, Charlie Rose posts video of his discussion with HRC pollster Mark Penn at The Huffington Post.

EDWARDS: Too Bad Campaign Finance Numbers Are Graded On A Curve

TAPPED's Garance Franke-Ruta links to Daily Kos' Adam B's analysis of Campaign Finance Institute numbers on WH '08 fundraising and notes: "John Edwards, not Barack Obama, is leading in the percent of campaign contributions that came from small donors (under $200) this year, though the difference between the two is minimal. ... The take-home: given an expected influx of more than $13 million in public funds for Edwards, all of the top three Democrats will have enough to compete in the early contests."

Open Left's Chris Bowers also looks at CFI's numbers and blogs: "Edwards has actually raised more money for the primary at this point in the campaign than Howard Dean did in 2003. At the end of September, Edwards had raised $27.9M, while four years ago at the same point Dean had raised $25.4M. Remember that Dean's fundraising haul was perceived as massive, and led him to opt out of public financing. The haul for Edwards is perceived in the exact opposite way on both counts."

OBAMA: Pitch Imperfect

IA Independent's T.M. Lindsey reports from a Barack Obama event in Cedar County, IA, which was "the only county in the nation where George Bush and Al Gore had tied in the 2000 election." Lindsey reports on the crowd: "Most were drawn to the event with the hope that Obama can deliver on his promise to put an end to partisan politics. ... The end-of-divisive-politics tone was established early with Barbara Cary's introduction of Obama. Cary, a social studies teacher at Tipton High School, took the stage and explained why she was pushing for Obama. 'I changed parties to caucus for Obama, because I'm tired of all the partisan politics.'"

Also talking Obama and partisan politics, The Plank's Jonathan Chait argues the Washington Post misreads Obama message: "As I understand it -- and I could be wrong -- Obama isn't making a cumbaya, let's all get along point. He's saying that the practical realities of American politics dictate some level of bipartisan consensus in order to make progress. ... Obama's point, as I take it, is that electing a Democrat will be enough to stop George W. Bush from screwing things up, but not enough to allow real progress. ... Obama's model may be less partisan than Clinton's, but in important ways it's more radical. Of course, conveying that rather complex message to Democratic primary voters is another thing altogether."

The Plank's Michelle Cottle responds: "I share Chait's view as to what Obama is going for with his audacious message of hope. But my overwhelming bias is that, where presidential elections are concerned, people vote with their gut more than their brain. And for an outraged Democratic party, Obama just ain't pushing the right buttons. I'm not suggesting Obama's governing model is flawed; I'm questioning his political pitch."

At The Huffington Post Beverly Davis scored a campaign bus interview with Obama which features this exchange:

• OffTheBus: Many in this country and others around the world are skeptical about us going out and talking about human rights when we see what's going on in our own country - the recent case in Jena, Louisiana as an example - and the obvious lack of equal rights here. ... As president, what are you going to do about restoring human rights here?
• Senator Obama: "A lot of the encroachments on civil liberties have been done not by legislation but through Executive Order, so one of the things I want to do is first of all have an Attorney General that believes in protecting Constitutional Rights and the separation of powers and have him or her and the Justice Department engage in a through evaluation of our Executive Orders. Restoring Habeas Corpus, Closing Guantanamo, strengthening the role of the FISA court in reviewing wire tape requests. Those are all areas were we can more rapidly rollback some of the more damaging aspects of President Bush's approach."

RICHARDSON: "Unbelievable"

Bill Richardson pitches HuffPo readers:

Frankly, it is well past time we make a choice. And the only responsible choice left to us is to get all of our troops out of Iraq, with no residual forces left behind--no combat forces, no non-combat forces. As President, I will do it. I will get all of our troops out within a year after I take office - sooner if we can get it done safely. ... The other major candidates in this race have said--again and again--that they will not. Senators Edwards, Obama, and Clinton have all refused to commit to getting all of our troops out of Iraq by 2013. None of them are willing to be clear about removing all troops - combat and non-combat. It's unbelievable.

GIULIANI: It Appears RedState Hates Rudy More Than Kos Hates Hillary

The Corner's Byron York picks the following quote from "the strongly pro-life" TX Gov. Rick Perry's (R) explanation for his 10/17 Rudy Giuliani endorsement: "I wanted to hear him give me the answer and to look me right in my eyes, was that issue of who can I expect, what type of individual can I expect on the Supreme Court. And he clearly said, look, I did this for Ronald Reagan, I vetted the judges for President Reagan, I know what those conservative principles are that a Reaganesque individual would be looking for. He said you can look for people like Scalia, Roberts, and Alito. Well, let me tell you, I can live with that."

Townhall's Mary Katharine Ham wonders if social conservatives were the real target of the Perry endorsement: "Perry announced his endorsement the morning of the Club for Growth conference-- fiscal cons-- not the Values Voter Summit-- social cons. Why? Check out Perry's grade on the challenging Cato 2006 report card for governors. Only Matt Blunt of Missouri beats him out, and famously fiscal Mark Sanford of South Carolina ranks just below him."

RedStateErick Erickson's was not impressed by the Perry get, commenting: "Rudy already has a reputation as something of an autocrat that does not really put him in good with Republicans of the more libertarian leaning. Then there are the social conservatives that aren't enamored with Rudy because of his position on life issues. ... An endorsement from Rick Perry brings him the baggage from all of those. ... If you'll remember back to February, in a sweeping executive order without the participation of the Texas legislature, Governor Perry ordered all school age girls to get the HPV vaccine. Were I Rudy, sure, I'd be fine with the governor of the second largest state in the union endorsing me, but I would keep my distance and certainly wouldn't trumpet his endorsement to evangelicals -- Governor Perry burned that bridge down himself."

Also at RedState, haystack posts Fred Thompson supporter TX Land Com. Jerry Patterson's criticism of Giuliani and ex-Sam Brownback aide Leon Wolf warns Giuliani supporters to expect a rough time on RedState's recommended diaries list.

GIULIANI II: Rediscovering The First Amendment

AmSpec Blog's Philip Klein reports from Rudy Giuliani's Club for Growth speech: "Much of the interesting discussion came in the question and answer session. ... Toomey also asked Giuliani about his past support for McCain-Feingold. 'It is one of many occasions in which I can point out to you that I'm not perfect, that I've made mistakes,' Giuliani acknowledged. And that has turned out to be a big mistake. He spoke about the restrictions it has placed on free speech as well as the problems with 527s and said he now realizes that the best system would be one in which you ditched the focus on spending limits in favor of more transparency."

PAUL: Do They Leave Out His Opposition To Our Civil War As Well?

AmSpec BlogJames Antle listens to Ron Paul's NH radio ad and notes: "What the ad rather conspicuously doesn't mention in Paul's opposition to the Iraq war (though it does suggest people visit his campaign website, which makes his antiwar views fairly clear). The only position it emphasizes that would be controversial among conservatives is that he's never voted to increase executive power (though certainly that position can be said to have a conservative pedigree). We'll see whether this will help Paul broaden his base or whether is plays down the very attribute that makes the Texas congressman different from the rest of the GOP field."

ROMNEY: If He Can Beat The Mormon Question Here, He Can Beat It Anywhere

Townhall's Hugh Hewitt amplified Bob Jones' III endorsement of Mitt Romney with interviews of Bob Jones University Dean Robert Taylor and Southern Baptist Theological Seminary pres. Dr. Albert Mohler. From the Taylor interview:

• HH: How widespread is the support for Romney among the faculty and staff at Bob Jones University? Just for me, obviously, it's not scientific, but you're the Dean, you talk to most of the professors and the staff there.
• RT: Well, I think among those folks that are politically active, I would say he has a great deal of support. You know, a lot of people just don't pay too much attention until it gets a little closer to the real thing. But you know, I feel confident that we'll have a pretty good majority that would support him when the time comes.

From the Mohler interview:

• HH: Do you expect that this is the first couple of stones that are going to roll down an Evangelical hill? Or is this an isolated group of activists in South Carolina who have been particularly wooed by Mitt Romney?
• AM: Well, you know, the interesting thing is it's very difficult to call South Carolina or Bob Jones University atypical in this. And you just think back to previous Republican nomination struggles, and you can remember how decisive some of these constituencies can be. I think this is really big. If I were in the Romney campaign, I would be extremely encouraged by this, because not only is Bob Jones III obviously a very well known conservative leader, but he is so well positioned on the spectrum, that this is likely to make it easier for other persons also to make very similar moves.

ROMNEY II: It's Not The Club For Federal Government Intervention In Parenting

AmSpec Blog's Jennifer Rubin reacts to Mitt Romney's prepared Club for Growth remarks: "The Club for Growth folks could have reminded [Romney] of some of the principles of their organization: less government spending and regulation, more personal choice, and less bureaucracy. Instead, at least according to two press reports, Romney came up with two ideas which don't seem designed to improve his situation: 1) a national parental training weekend for parents of kids in the bottom 10% of schools and 2) government college aid linked to the career you choose. ... The policy is bad enough but the politics of this escapes me."

THOMPSON: It's Not The Club For Unlimited Tort Liabilities And Local Internet Taxes

Townhall's Mary Katharine Ham liveblogged Fred Thompson's answer to Club for Growth questioning of his past McCain-Feingold support: "

I've addressed that before. I've addressed that on a blog...What I've said basically is while I still think the provisions with soft money are good things but that the one you're talking about has not worked and it should be repealed...It's important to keep it in perspective. The idea was you've got to raise money for those ads the same way you raise money for candidates...It's not quite as draconian as the summary of it sometimes is, but it's still bad and we shouldn't have done it. The Supreme Court has better things to do [than parse campaign ads]...It shouldn't have been done. We went too far.

AmSpec Blog's Philip Klein reports Thompson faced a "friendly audience" but was pressed on tort reform: "He only thinks the federal government should be involved on matters of interstate commerce, but said we shouldn't be 'allowing states to abdicate their responsibilities" by passing reform at the federal level.'" AmSpec's Jennifer Rubin gives Thompson an 'F' for his understanding on the issue:

He said the same thing on Kudlow a few months back but frankly it's incoherent. If we have interstate commerce with national corporations then by his own definition Congress should be able to regulate it, including passing tort reform. By forum shopping in any jurisdiction plaintiffs lawyers will otherwise use the "best" law they can find to sue corporations, ringing up huge damages and legal costs.
Tort reform is a significant issue, factors in meaningful health care reform and was a problem in Thompson's record according to Club for Growth.

Rubin later follows with oppo from a "Not A Friend of Fred Thompson (NAFFT)." The NAFFT hits Thompson on internet taxation: "Fred wanted to ensure that states be allowed to tax the internet and moreover voted repeatedly against the same tax moratorium he now champions. ... Thompson could have written that his principles of federalism in the past precluded his support of the internet tax moratorium but he has now seen the light and understands that a national, indeed, an international communication system can't be nickeled and dimed by states. But hey, wouldn't that be the same argument for tort reform? Well, maybe that is a bridge too far."

THOMPSON II: Do Fence Him In

Fred Thompson answered an Instapundit readers question on whether we should finish a border fence on the Mexico border (Thompson's for it). Hot Air's Allahpundit thinks the wrong question was asked:

How are you going to get a fence built with the Democrats likely holding 55-60 Senate seats and god knows how many House seats come 2009? If the GOP takes the White House, the next president's job will be, purely and simply, to hold the line and wield the veto pen like a saber. Fred will have served his country well if he does no more than block whatever disastrous amnesty the Democrats are likely to try to cram down his throat in his first term.

MA 05: Magic 05 Ball Says, "Reply Hazy, Try Again"

Both progressive and conservative bloggers continued to chew over Niki Tsongas' (D) 51% - 45% win over ret. USAF Lt. Col. Jim Ogonowski (R). Analysis includes:

• Marc Ambinder: "Well -- this isn't an elite liberal district, as anyone who ever worked for Marty Meehan can tell you. It is insular and provincial and distrusts outsiders; Tsongas lived outside the district before she ran. Though it has stayed in Democratic hands since the 70s, Tsongas still outperformed Gov. Deval Patrick here by two or three points; George H. W. Bush won this congressional district in 1992, as did Mitt Romney in 2002."
• MyDD's Todd Beeton: "So the Republicans lost a district that they won in the 1992 presidential election and the 2002 gubernatorial election, and in which their 2006 gubernatorial nominee ran about a net 18-19 points better than she did statewide and they're calling it a success? The American public still generally favors the Democrats to the Republicans."
• Open Left's Matt Stoller: "For all the talk that Hillary Clinton is running a strong campaign, I think she's quite vulnerable in a general election. The MA-05 election results, while you could chalk them up to a weak Democratic general election candidate and localized conditions, suggests that the strategy of running as a nonpartisan get things done Republican against corrupt DC Democratic insider could work. And let's not forget, that the local dynamics notwithstanding, Ogonowski was outspent 4:1."
• The Corner's David Freddoso: "There is one thing no one is mentioning about the special House election yesterday between Jim Ogonowski and Niki Tsongas in Massachusetts. ... The fact is, Ogonowski, an Air Force veteran whose brother died on 9/11, ran as a dovish pragmatist on Iraq. He said he had opposed the Iraq War from the beginning, and he wanted a sensible way of getting the troops out. ... I still have doubts that many Republican House candidates will run on a dovish platform in 2008, which is why I don't feel confident that yesterday's election signifies a trend."
• Campaign Standard's John McCormack: "That's not quite the case. During the campaign, Tsongas endorsed a bill to withdraw all of the troops from Iraq within 270 days of its passage, while Ogonowski adamantly supported the surge and General Petraeus's counterinsurgency strategy in Iraq. It's true that Ogonowski said the Iraq war was a mistake in the first place and favored the eventual drawdown of all of the troops - but not before the U.S. wins a clear victory, which Ogonowski defined as a strong and stable Iraqi government and army."

NM SEN: Udall Da Man

DailyKos' founder Markos Moulitsas posts SurveyUSA numbers showing Rep. Tom Udall (D) beating both Reps. Heather Wilson (R) and Steve Pearce (R) and comments: "Those numbers are far better than any other potential Democrat except for Bill Richardson (who insists he's staying in the presidential race). They're definitely better than the only top-tier Dem currently in the field -- Marty Chavez -- who is ethically compromised and just all-around not acceptable. Lt. Gov. Diane Denish would be a great candidate, but she seems focused on the 2010 governor's race and drafting her into this race would be a challenge."

More kos: "So head on over to Draft Udall and let him know you'll have his back if he decides to run, especially if you're from New Mexico."

THOUGHT OF THE DAY: We're All Journalists Now

Atrios looks at the Free Flow of Information Act winding its way through Congress and comments: "I don't really like any shield law which attempts to define journalism as a class rather than an act, I don't like that such law uses an income test to define that class, and I certainly don't understand why the emphasis is on protecting the journalists from testifying rather than the whistleblowers who need protecting. Yay whistleblower protection. Boo defining journalism based on whether it makes you money."

LEST WE FORGET: Why Do The Democrats Hate Armenians?

Watching CNN, Atrios notes that the "Dems Cave On Genocide" flashed on his screen "for about 20 minutes" and finds it "awesome." More Atrios: "I'm not criticizing CNN here. It was a stupid resolution, a stupid fake showdown with Bush, and then to top it all off they lost the showdown. Obviously one question is whether or not it should have been out there to begin with, but why they feel the need to lose on such things is beyond me..."