October 17, 2007

10/17: Will '08 Actually Be Competitive?

Commenting on Niki Tsongas' (D) 51% - 45% win over ret. USAF Lt. Col. Jim Ogonowski (R), a Talking Points Memo reader explains: "Among progressives there was a lot of resentment that 1) Tsongas beat out a great progressive candidate in the primary and that she 2) was essentially crowned by the local Democratic machine, without having done anything whatsoever to deserve it. Thus a lot of progressive folks stayed home. I almost did, but thought better of it, held my nose and then voted for her."

Replace "Tsongas" with "Clinton" and "local" for "national" and the emailer could easily be describing WH '08s general election. As MyDD's Todd Beeton notes, the same CNN poll that shows Clinton at 51% - 21% lead over Barack Obama in the primary, also shows her up only 2 points (49%-47%) over Rudy Giuliani in a general election match up. For all the doom and gloom the GOP's lack luster fundraising and atrocious generic WH numbers inspire, MA 05 may foreshadow a WH '08 contest that'll be a lot closer than many of us ever expected.

DEM FIELD: One Goes Up, The Rest Come Down

MyDD's Todd Beeton links to CNN's latest poll showing Hillary Clinton leading Barack Obama 51% - 21% and comments: "Looking at the candidates' performance in relation to their recent averages, Clinton and [John] Edwards appear to be rising and Obama looks stalled. Looking over a longer period, however, it's evident that Clinton is the only candidate who can really claim any long term growth as Obama, Edwards and [Bill] Richardson have all been at or above their current standing in national primary polling earlier this year, namely in early September."

DEM FIELD II: The Blurring Continues

The Huffington Post's Sam Stein reports Brookings Institution Scholar/Hillary Clinton advisor/Iraq war supporter Michael O'Hanlon is "commending Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, and John Edwards for their newfound flexibility" on Iraq. From O'Hanlon: "There is still fifteen months before [Clinton, Obama or Edwards] will be President. It's just factual that they cannot predict exactly what they are going to do in Iraq. ... I think the Democratic position allows all three of the top people to move in the Republican direction if things move around in the next twelve months... Clearly they aren't likely to do that unless things get dramatically better."

CLINTON: She Was Against NAFTA Before She Was Against It

The Plank's Barron YoungSmith looks at Washington Postcomplaints of Hillary Clinton's recent calls for suggesting a 'timeout' on trade negotiations and links to evidence Sally Bedell Smith's new book Clintons, For Love of Politics which reports: "Liberal Democrats, including Hillary, opposed it primarily because it could take jobs away from American workers. But as an advocate of global economic cooperation, Bill was drawn to its free-trade philosophy." YoungSmith comments:

It is likely that her disagreement with Bill wasn't purely philosophical. Press reports from the time suggest that Hillary judged the politics of the situation differently: She thought a push for NAFTA would alienate the Democratic base, and that--in turn--would drain away resources and support from her health care initiative. All that, however, is beside the point. It doesn't matter whether she was motivated by principle or politics. The fact remains that Hillary's position on trade today is almost exactly the same as it was in 1993: She's skeptical about free-trade agreements and seems quite willing to sacrifice their passage if it will help speed health care reform.

DODD: Put Up Or Shut Up

Atrios links to Chris Dodd's recent statements against granting telecom companies immunity for cooperating with Bush administration surveillance programs and comments: "The question is how far he, and other senators, will go to stop it. There are always ways to muck things up in the Senate if someone wants to badly enough."

EDWARDS: Who You Gonna Believe, The Times Or The Univ. Of IA?

John Edwards 10/15 IA SEIU endorsement is still generating commentary. MyDD's David Mizner shares highlights from an Edwards campaign conference call: "People are overlooking the importance of the SEIU endorsement in Nevada, just as they're overlooking the importance of Nevada itself. With the potential backing of both SEIU Nevada (supplemented by neighboring California's SEIU) and the powerful Culinary Workers Union, Edwards will be strong in Nevada. If he wins Iowa but loses New Hampshire, he'll have a chance to regain momentum there. He's just tripled his staff in the state."

TAPPED's Garance Franke-Ruta read IA Independent's John Deeth's liveblog of Edwards announcement and picked out this exchange: "Professor David Redlawsk says the endorsement helps Edwards immensely in Johnson County, "though there's also a sizable Obama contingent." We exchange grumblings about a New York Times article that noted that Iowans, particularly those at the Johnson County Dems barbecue, don't read blogs. "Our research shows 22 to 23% of caucus goers read blogs, which was higher than I expected," he said. "It's still kind of a niche, but... the people who MATTER are reading blogs," he added.

The Times article reported that, "only about 7 percent [of likely caucus-goers] visited candidate pages on the social-networking sites MySpace and Facebook."

Garance followed up with Redlawsk (a poli sci prof. at Univ. of IA), and after looking over his data she concludes: "[A]t every level, likely caucus-goers were more involved with online media and online campaigns than those who did not plan to attend the caucuses. And that's nothing to sneeze at."

GOP FIELD: Not Laffing All The Way To The Nomination

The Corner's Ramesh Ponnuru links to a New York Sun 'list of unifying ideas' that make up the GOP and responds to the top NY Sun item which declares: "Reductions in top marginal tax rates provide incentives for growth and lead to greater government revenues in the long run. That is not always the case. There is a point on the Laffer Curve at which tax cuts on the top margin stop generating increased income, but we are nowhere near that point now."

Ponnuru responds: "Presumably what they mean is that the top income tax rate is higher than the revenue-maximizing rate, but I'm not sure why they think that it is. Bush's tax cuts appear to have caused revenue to be lower than it would otherwise have been, which suggests that we're already below the revenue-maximizing tax rate."

Right Wing News also reacts to the Sun item: "The Republican Party should stand for a strong defense, small government, low taxes, fiscal responsibility, adherence to the Constitution, defense of American sovereignty, law and order, colorblindness, and traditional American values including, but not limited to respect for human life, personal responsibility, and love of country."

GIULIANI: He Knew Ronald Reagan

AmSpec Blog's Philip Klein and NRO's Jim Geraghty both filed reports from Rudy Giuliani's 10/16 appearance before the Republican Jewish Coalition conference in Washington, DC. Klein said the audience was "about as close to a home crowd as he could get" and "Giuliani had the crowd eating out of his hands with flashes of humor, tough talk on Iran, and a hard line against futile diplomacy with Palestinians who seek to destroy Israel."

Geraghty reports: "Giuliani mentions Hillary's criticism of Barack Obama's willingness to have face-to-face meetings with dictators without conditions: "That's the first time I agreed with her since she said she was a Yankee fan... They say, but Ronald Reagan negotiated with the Soviet Union. I say this most respectfully... You're not Ronald Reagan.'"

Later Geraghty shares to rival campaign hits on Giuliani. First, a '96 quote from Giuliani telling Charlie Rose 'I'm a Republican mayor, but I'm really not.' And second, a link a NYC Immigration Coalition that Giuliani served on with George Soros.

GIULIANI II: Rudy's Strength Or SoCon Weakness?

The Corner's Ramesh Ponnuru posts an email question from a reader: "In your view is the fact that Rudy has come this far a marker of ideological erosion in the Republican Party's predominately social conservatism? Or is "Rudy" merely happenstance, an individual, statistical artifact of the Darwinian processes of politics?"

Ponnuru responds: "I think it was always possible, under the right circumstances, for a pro-choice candidate to do well in the Republican primaries. ... But the actual pro-choice candidates who ran were duds. ... If he wins, I think it will cause the party to become less pro-life; but if he wins, it won't be because the party has become less pro-life."

AmSpec Blog's James Antle links and responds: "I mostly agree with Ramesh ... Giuliani's nomination might make the Republican Party less pro-life, but he won't win because it has already become less pro-life. ... But I do think it also shows the extent to which social conservatives have suffered as national organizations like the Christian Coalition have declined and the ones that have replaced them have been much less effective."

Also at The Corner, Byron York reads Giuliani's FEC report and notes: "In Rudy Giuliani's latest documents, we see that he has been searching for conservatives. The report shows that last July he paid $11,000 to NewsMax for its subscription list, $6,700 to Townhall for its list, and $5,000 to Human Events for its list. (A quick check with Jack Fowler shows that Giuliani hasn't rented NR's list.)"

MCCAIN: We're Mildly Amused

John McCain also spoke at the RJC conference. NRO's Jim Geraghty shares his opening joke:

"After following Senator Brownback and Mayor Giuliani, I feel a bit like Zsa Zsa Gabor's fifth husband. I understand he said on his wedding night, 'I know what I'm supposed to do, I just don't know how to make it interesting.'" ... Then he tells that he used that joke a few years back before a different audience, and when he finished his remarks, he found that the subsequent speaker was Senator John Warner, Elizabeth Taylor's sixth husband. "He was not amused."

PAUL: Possibly The Smallest Broad Based Coalition Ever

Patrick Ruffini crunches the Ron Paul donor data available at RonPaulGraphs.com and creates his own map showing where Paul's money is coming from. Ruffini blogs: "This really is a Western movement, with some of the Northeast thrown in. Basically, these are the places where you would expect libertarians to be strong. But I don't think I've ever seen a data set this good about the state-by-state strength of libertarianism. And the data gets more reliable every day. The Paul movement is weakest in the Deep South and the Ohio River Valley.

The Huffington Post's Tom Edsall reports: "Through no fault of his own, Rep. Ron Paul's anti-globalist, anti-government campaign for the Republican presidential nomination has become a magnet in neo-Nazi networks, pulling in activists and supporters from the fringe white nationalist community where anti-Semitism, anti-black and anti-immigrant views are commonplace. ... Such web-based organizations as Stormfront (motto: "White Pride, World Wide"), Vanguard News Network ("No Jews. Just Right.") and the Nationalist Coalition ("working to create the relationships that will lay the foundation for the White community that is necessary to our survival") have become sources of support for Paul's bid for the Republican nomination, and in some cases have set up separate Ron Paul discussion groups.

Finally, The Brody File shares some of his pro-Paul email:

• Ron Paul is the champion of the Constitution and he espouses the traditional conservative values we all hold so dear. His integrity is evidenced not only by his 20 year voting record, but even more by the life he has led. Family values - He has remained faithfully married to the same woman for over 50 years. He is pro-life and has delivered over 4,000 babies.
• As a Christian, I believe his non-interventionist foreign policy and Christian "just war" theory is the direction this country needs to take. Dr. Paul wants freedom for everyone...so Christians will have every right to celebrate their faith in the ways they see fit, local school districts will have more influence on their schools, respect for life could be restored, and following the Constitution would be a top priority.
• I'm a 35 year old Catholic father of three -- hardly the tinfoil hat type -- and am a dedicated supporter of Ron Paul. With the Christian Right looking so hard to find a candidate they can support, I'm amazed they seem to look past Dr. Paul. He's lockstep with us on the issues, with the possible exception of the war.

ROMNEY: He Don't Get No Respect

Mitt Romney also spoke at the RJC conference. Reports include:

• AmSpec Blog's Philip Klein: "During the question and answer session, somebody asked why Mormonism scares so many people. Romney responded by pointing to his support among evangelicals, particularly how James Dobson has had ruled out Giuliani, Thompson, and McCain. ... I found it odd that he would focus so much on the evangelical angle before a Jewish audience that is sympathetic to other minority religions and opposed to the idea of religious tests for office."
• AmSpec Blog's Jennifer Rubin: "I agree in large part with your take Phil. ... And yes, it was a 'what are we, chopped liver?' moment when asked whether his religion 'scares' people. He in essence, before a Jewish audience, said, 'Oh no, Evangelicals like me just fine.' It was a chance to bond with the crowd and sound a broad based theme in favor of tolerance and inclusion and it was missed."
• NRO's Jim Geraghty: "He mentions the average health care insurance bill for a resident of Boston has been nearly cut in half since his plan went into effect."
• more from AmSpec's Klein: "Mitt Romney joked, "Remember that old Rodney Dangerfield line, 'Take Jimmy Carter, please.'" ... Romney corrected himself after an audience member informed him that the phrase was associated with the legendary King of the One-Liners, Benny Youngman. I guess he missed the briefing on Jewish comedians.

At Townhall, Matt Lewis reports a "senior Republican aide allied with Romney" tells him Romney's 'Mormon Speech' may be coming soon. From Lewis: "The reason? There will most likely be only a short period of time -- possibly only a few days -- between the Iowa Caucuses and the New Hampshire Primary. That would leave little time to get a message out, and zero time to do crisis control if a message delivery were botched. ... Iowa is likely to announce tonight that they will hold their caucuses on January 3rd. New Hampshire's Primary is likely to take place on January 8th, though it's conceivably possible this could happen as early as December. And because of this tight schedule -- plus the fact that news gets lost during the Holiday season -- it is plausible "the speech" could happen within the next month."

THOMPSON: Humble, Lovable, And Cuddly

Fred Thompson also spoke at the RJC conference. AmSpec Blog's Philip Klein blogs: "Fred Thompson gave a trademark low-key performance, with a sweeping view of what America should stand for, rooted in our founders. ... One woman asked for him to compare and contrast himself with his Law and Order character, Arthur Branch. Thompson said when Branch is 'humble, lovable and cuddly, he's like me,' but when he's 'mean, surly, and short-tempered, he's not like me.'"

Captain's Quarter's links to a Jeri Thompson interview in the Joilet Herald News and forwards the advice of JeriGirl blogger Laura Batson to Mrs. Thompson: I truly think this interview deserves national attention. I only wish she could have been as forthcoming with PEOPLE. But politics is nothing, if not timing. ... The time will come soon enough when retail politics will demand the full bloom of Jeri's personality and talents. Why blow the show all in one act, as my Sweet Southern Grandmother would say.

MA 05: An Outlier ... Or A Sign Of Things To Come?

The netroots are somewhat disquieted by Niki Tsongas' 51% - 45% win over ret. USAF Lt. Col. Jim Ogonowski (R). Reactions include:

• Open Left's Chris Bowers: "A 6% victory in a D +10.7 district is pretty bad. It isn't quite as bad for us as a 3% victory for Republicans in the R +13.1 OH-02 in August of 2005, but it is close. The difference in swings is about 23 points compared to 16 points. As with the OH-02, much of the problem rests in the ossified local machine of the favored party nominating a weak candidate. Tsongas isn't as bad on the trail as Jean Schimdt, but she is close."
• MyDD's Todd Beeton: "BlueMassGroup is reporting quite a tight race ... If my math is correct, that's 51.4 to 48.6 with 70% reporting. Not good."
• DailyKos' founder Markos Moulitsas: "Yeay us, except that this is a district that Kerry won 57-41 in 2004 meaning Tsongas underperformed her party (a 10-point swing toward the GOP). Bad candidate? Well, no one could be inspired by a machine-backed retread from the previous century running a low-energy campaign. Good candidate on their part? Perhaps, this Ogonowski character they ran seemed to run a smart race. The political environment? It's not as if Democrats are too excited with the performance of their leadership in Congress. ... So read into this race as little or as much as you want. It probably doesn't mean much."
• a Talking Points Memo reader: "Among progressives there was a lot of resentment that 1) Tsongas beat out a great progressive candidate in the primary and that she 2) was essentially crowned by the local Democratic machine, without having done anything whatsoever to deserve it. Thus a lot of progressive folks stayed home. I almost did, but thought better of it, held my nose and then voted for her."
• another TPM reader: "I think an important element of this election is the GOP candidate's biography -- his military background and the loss of his brother on 9/11. People still carry a soft spot for the victims and relatives of that day, and in a low information election I can imagine people using 9/11 as a tie-breaker. I don't think this carries over to national campaigns."

Townhall's Patrick Ruffini was encouraged: "There is a clear way forward for the Republican Party out of tonight. It's one that we didn't have last night. Or last month. Or a year ago. It's simple: the change message works. America is anti-Washington, anti-Congress, and anti-corruption. When that's where Republicans are, they win. Jim Ogonowski showed us that. ... All you need is a plain-spoken veteran with an extraordinary life story. We need more citizen-candidates like Jim Ogonowski. We need them to pick off Democrats in blue and purple seats. We need them as primary challengers to corrupt incumbents. In "safe" Democrat-held districts, we need to run people who can get 45% of the vote, and then be in a position to finish the job in 2010. In 2006, the average second-time Democratic challenger who won received 43% of the vote their last time out."

BLOGGERS VS BLOGGERS: Doing It For The Children

Another day of SCHIP debating, another prop family, and more blogger bitterness. Think Progress highlights a NRO article by Mark Hemingway titled "Meet the New Frosts, Same As the Old Frosts" that examines the economic situation of the latest family Dems have invited to Washington, DC to pressure the GOP to extend SCHIP, the Wilkerson's. Think Progress reports: "Hemingway claims that Bethany's mother, Dara, "voluntarily left a job at a country club that had good health insurance, because the situation was 'unmanageable,'" to "take a job at a restaurant with no health insurance." He mourns the fact that the Wilkersons "went on to have a baby anyway."

TP comments: "So according to this "pro-life" right-wing logic, the Wilkersons should have sacrificed having a daughter in order to stay in an "unmanageable" job."

Hemingway responds at The Corner: "But the bottom line is not that two-year-old Bethany Wilkerson shouldn't be shown compassion - of course she should. God bless her and her hurting heart. The point of the piece was: that a) this family's story is not a compelling reason to enact (or expand) new policy and b) for the love of all that is holy, keep your children out of political debates. It's dishonest and exploitative, and it makes complex policy arguments needlessly personal."

AmSpec Blog's Jennifer Rubin notes conservatives are losing the message battle in MSM publications: "Do They Read Their Own Stories? ... The USA Today poll shows that the public by a 52-40% margin favor limiting SCHIP to families at 200% of the poverty line, just as Bush wants to do."

Atrios links to Think Progress' story and comments: "Keep it Coming. The crazy Right continues to think that attacking people with jobs and families who can't afford health insurance is an excellent political tactic."

THOUGHT OF THE DAY: The Vast Laffer Conspiracy

Meagan McArdle confides: "A conservative publication, which I will not name, just spiked a book review because I said that the Laffer Curve didn't apply at American levels of taxation, even while otherwise expressing my vast displeasure with the (liberal) economic notions of the book I was reviewing. This isn't me looking for an alternative explanation for the spiking of a bad review: the literary editor accepted it, edited it, and then three hours later told me it couldn't be published because it violated their editorial line on taxation. I suppose I ought to have known, but I didn't. Go ahead liberals, pile on: you told me so. The Laffer Curve and the supply siders pushing it seem to be the teacher's unions of the right."

LEST WE FORGET: And Hotline Will Be There To Cover Them All

Just in time for Halloween, Bush And Clinton Forever details the next 50 years of executive leadership in these United States:

• 2009 - 2017 - President Hillary Rodham Clinton -- If elected as anticipated in November 2008. Currently the front-runner. First Female president in US history AND first spouse of a former US president to be elected as President!!
• 2017 - 2025 - President Jeb Bush -- First time in US history that 2 different sons of a former US president are elected to the highest office in the land! First brother of a president to be elected president!!
• 2025 - 2033 - President Chelsea Clinton -- Youngest female president ever elected at age 45, AND first daughter of a president to be elected President! Stanford AND Oxford educated!!
• 2033 - 2041 - President George P. Bush -- First hispanic US President! Note: George P. Bush is Jeb's son and his mother is a native of Mexico. George P. Bush is a graduate of the University of Texas Law School!! He is currently a rising star in the Republican party and was recently featured in a Men's Vogue article!
• 2041 - 2049 - President ______ _______ Clinton -- First adopted President of a former US President! ... One of our readers pointed out that the 2041 Clinton slot could also go to the future husband of Chelsea Clinton! Actually, this probably is a more realistic possibility than the adoption scenario above.
• 2049 - 2057 - President Jenna Bush -- First granddaughter of a US president to be elected president! Also, first daughter of a former Republican president to take office! A possible VP dark horse in this race: Her twin sister Barbara, forming the first all-sister presidential ticket in US history!!
• 2057 - beyond! Honestly folks, our ability to see that far into the future is not quite as clear as our certainty that the BushClinton political dynasty is majestic for America!!!!

Posted by Conn Carroll at October 17, 2007 12:48 PM