10/15: The Competition For Indies In NH

A 10/14 Washington Postarticle 'The Disciples of Ron Paul' inspires us to return to our 10/4 speculation that a well funded Paul campaign might hurt Barack Obama the most. AmSpec Blog's John Tabin argues that Obama's 'optimistic liberalism' will not compete with Paul's 'pessimistic libertarianism' and Daniel Larison notes, "Sure, superficially Obama and Paul might seem to offer some similar themes, and both did oppose the Iraq war, but Obama is essentially an interventionist at home and abroad and Paul is diametrically opposed to both."

Andrew Sullivan responds to Larison: "What both do share, though, is a sense of being outside the establishment of their respective parties. They both sound as if they are saying things they actually believe and have thought about at some length." Meanwhile, the Post reports that NH gave Paul the most money per capita and that 44% of voters in the state are independent and can vote in either primary. The Post alsoquotes former Air Force pilot Jim Forsythe who explains he supports Paul because Paul is against "politics as we've known it." Now, who does that sound like?

GIULIANI: No Hydeing From This Issue

Fred Barnes latest Weekly Standard article "The Speech He Needs to Give" inspired speculation on Rudy Giuliani's relationship with social conservatives. Reactions include:

• The Corner's Ramesh Ponnuru: "Fred Barnes asked Giuliani about federal funding for abortion: 'And should Congress pass a bill repealing the Hyde amendment, he said he would veto it.' Good for the mayor. I hope he takes the rest of Barnes's advice, and comes out against Roe."
• Captain's Quarters: "I've spent the last three days with an eclectic mix of pro-life and libertarian conservatives, and I've heard them talk about these very issues. I've heard them react to the speeches given here at the CLC. I'd have to conclude that Barnes' excellent statement would have no effect on the skepticism that a Giuliani nomination will generate. Pro-life advocates are not in a forgiving mood."
• AmSpec Blog's James Antle: "[T]he most important item in Barnes's piece is this: He quotes Giuliani saying he would veto any attempt by the Democratic Congress to gut the Hyde Amendment. This is the first time I'm aware of that he's been willing to make his new support of the Hyde Amendment that concrete. If Giuliani actually says this publicly, it will be a sign that the new social conservative campaign against him -- as inept as I think it has generally been so far -- is having some effect.
• Power Line's Paul Mirengoff: "It is asking a lot for social conservatives to support a man who disagrees with them on their most important issue, and one which involves bedrock moral principles. To ask this after eight years of power sharing is even more ambitious."

HUCKABEE: Must Win Over Catholics To Have A Chance

Soren Dayton tackles the question why social conservatives have failed to rally around Mike Huckabee and Sam Brownback:

First, the process starts with natural selection. Only very recently has there been a solid case for Huckabee being the obvious candidate of the religious right. In Q1 and Q2 Brownback outraised Huckabee and was about tied in the polls. Until Ames, the argument for preferring Huckabee was hard to ground in solid facts. (Now it is a lot easier). ... Second, I think that there is a degree of sectarianism. ... Nearly everyone I know who is a strong Huckabee advocate is an evangelical Christian. Nearly everyone I know who is a strong Brownback advocate is a conservative Catholic. It was a great feat of the Moral Majority and the Christian Coalition to get these people working together. If the leaders were to intervene in this fight, then they might threaten the foundation of their coalition. ... I don't know anyone who thinks that Brownback and Huckabee could really win a general election, although that is shifting for Huckabee to some extent.

HUNTER: Running Two Campaigns?

Captain's Quarters blogged 10/11-13's Reno, NV, Conservative Leadership Conference including 10/13's Duncan Hunter speech: "The first order of business is endorsing his son for his seat in Congress. Duncan Hunter Jr is currently serving in Afghanistan as a Marine, called back to active duty, and his father has been campaigning almost as hard for his son as he has for himself here at the CLC. ... Hunter talks about the "arsenal of democracy,"... and reminds us that Americans make things. The retreat of the manufacturing sector puts American security at risk. ... Hunter will bring the jobs back. That's his bottom line on trade and national security."

MCCAIN: In Case You Forgot Why McCain Still Won't Win Conservatives

Right Wing News looks at Townhall reports that John McCain is now telling NH voters "that he still believes in the immigration plan that failed in Congress earlier this year but that he now realizes that none of its components - including allowing millions of illegal immigrants to eventually earn legal status - can be enacted until the borders are secured first."

RWN responds: "Do I believe him? In a word: no. But, the fact that the point man for comprehensive illegal immigration reform in the Senate feels compelled to take a security first position on illegal immigration is significant because it means that people can like it, not like it, think it's good, think it's bad, but no matter how you slice it, there is now a consensus position on illegal immigration in the Republican party and it's a security first position."

PAUL: What Happens In Reno...

Blogging from Reno, NV, Captain's Quarters reports on the results of the Conservative Leadership Conference straw poll: "The straw poll came out as I would have predicted. Ron Paul had a large contingent of supporters at the CLC, and even though Paul inexplicably ignored this event, they remained loyal to him. He won about a third of the votes and finished far ahead of his competitors."

Not in Reno, Soren Dayton highlights the 2nd banner on Paul's official campaign site [it reads: "Party affiliation change deadlines ... you must be registered with the correct party to vote for Ron Paul in closed primaries."] and comments: "Yup. The Ron Paul team is campaigning to non-Republicans to change registration Awesome."

ROMNEY: As Much As Hillary Loves To Bring Up The '90s, Mitt Wishes They Would Just Go Away

John McCain's attacks on Mitt Romney's conservative credentials did not go unnoticed. AmSpec Blog's Jennifer Rubin highlights this nugget from McCain, "As we all know, when he ran for office in Massachusetts, being a Republican wasn't much of a priority," and comments: "This isn't bean bag anymore and both McCain and Rudy are sensing an opportunity to pile onto Romney and knock him out in in New Hampshire."

Power Line's John Hinderaker watches McCain repeat his attacks on Face the Nation and comments: "I'm an admirer of Mitt Romney, but it seems that his rivals are getting traction with their attacks on the not-very-conservative aspects of his record. ... I have to admit that I was taken aback by this YouTube video of Romney in a 1994 debate with [Ted] Kennedy, which is making the rounds. Maybe everyone else has already seen it, but what struck me was that it wasn't just the social issues, abortion and gay marriage, on which Romney took a moderate to liberal line. More disconcerting was his effort to distance himself from the Reagan administration, during which he pointedly said that he had been an independent."

Rubin later updates: "Not to be left out Team Thompson Communications Director Todd Harris released this: 'In 1994, Mitt Romney accomplished what people had long thought was impossible - he ran for Senate to the left of Ted Kennedy. I didn't know there was any room there. For him to now claim to represent the Republican wing of the Republican Party is yet another Mitt Romney flip flop.'"

THOMPSON: Playing To Type

The Corner's Byron York links to reportsFred Thompson canceled his 10/13-14 NH appearence and comments: "Fred Thompson has had to deal with the perception that he's not fully into the presidential campaign. That perception won't go away with reports that Thompson hasn't made a public campaign appearance since the debate in Dearborn, Michigan on Tuesday."

CLINTON: If Current Trends Continue...

Open Left's Chris Bowers looks at Pollster.com averages from NH and IA, and notes that Hillary Clinton's rise against her Dem rivals has been mirrored by a similar rise against probable GOP opponents:

Hillary Clinton's increasing Democratic primary advantage in states like New Hampshire and Iowa can also be seen in her remarkable turnaround in general election match ups. ... Overall, Clinton has improved her performance against Giuliani relative to Obama by about ten points over the last seven months. ... Clinton is rising both against other Democrats and against all Republicans. Clearly, she is running a very strong campaign, but there is not guarantee this trend will continue indefinitely.

At The Huffington PostSusan Braudy watches David Letterman's recent hosting of Hillary and Bill Clinton and concludes: "David Letterman did it. He ever so subtly endorsed the Clintons before the Democratic primaries. ... Laughter isn't the only thing Letterman does better than just about anybody. He has to be a political genius to balance year after year at the tippy-top of a soul-deadening tv bureaucracy."

Andrew Sullivan attributes Rep. John Lewis' (D-GA) HRC endorsement to the Clinton's "political machine and their ruthlessness" and adds: "No real feminist would do this; only someone who postures as a feminist while using her husband as a tool." Later Sullivan compares Hillary to a power mad elf queen.

EDWARDS: Making Progressive Mainstream

Gristmill's David Roberts looks at Barack Obama's new climate change policy and blogs: "Whatever his electoral fortunes, [John] Edwards has played an indispensable role in this campaign. On issue after issue -- energy, poverty, health care -- he has led the pack with bold progressive policy proposals. In doing so, he's pushed the envelope and made it safe for the other major candidates to strengthen their own plans."

A Left Coaster contributor responds: "I agree with that entirely. ... what I find particularly refreshing is that some of the top candidates have been mainstreaming very progressive ideas and proposals in a way that I haven't seen before and that I never believed would happen until I was 200 years old. This forces - or allows - other candidates to also become more progressive. One candidate in particular has been very aggressive about it and that's Sen. John Edwards. So, we do have a lot to thank him for."

ID SEN: A Lot Can Happen In Three Years

Daily Kos' mcjoan highlights recent coverage of ID LG Jim Risch race to replace Sen. Larry Craig (R-ID), including a New West question at a recent Risch press conference. Asked if Risch ever read blogs, he responded: "No, and No! ... People give me printouts which I occasionally read."

Mcjoan also links to Idaho Statesmencoverage which quotes ID GOP chair Kirk Sullivan: "I think the blogs are something we have to contend with so I do pay attention ... I don't care where they're coming from, left or right, if they are going to have an impact on the Idaho Republican Party I think it's our responsibility to be aware of what they're doing and saying."

Also from the Statesmen: "Risch is a dinosaur who writes by hand and uses dictation, doesn't use e-mail, and pays no mind to blogs or online news....Risch has no plans to blog, post to YouTube or even start using personal e-mail. 'It's generational, I suppose,' said Risch, 64." Mcjoan notes that Dem candidate Larry LaRocco is 61 and comments: "That amazing three-year generation gap."

IRAQ: They Were With Him Until He Went All 'Heck Uv A Job Brownie' On Them

Conservatives united to condemn MSM coverage of ret. Lt. Gen. Ricardo Sanchez 10/12 speech. The Washington Post headline read 'Ex-Commander In Iraq Faults War Strategy', but conservatives noted most reporters ignored the first half of Sanchez' speech, which included: "Given the near instantaneous ability to report actions on the ground, the responsibility to accurately and truthfully report takes on an unprecedented importance. The speculative and often uninformed initial reporting that characterizes our media appears to be rapidly becoming the standard of the industry. ... As I assess various media entities, some are unquestionably engaged in political propaganda that is uncontrolled." Reactions include:

• Power Line's John Hinderaker: "If the Bush administration gets attacked, the press will report it. But what if someone attacks the press? If the attack goes unreported, did it ever really happen?"
• Hot Air's Allahpundit: "It's not that they focus more on his criticism of the war than on his criticism of the media; it's that the criticism of the media is omitted entirely."
• Captain's Quarters: "The Post then goes on to obfuscate a key part of the second half of Sanchez' speech. While he criticizes the Bush administration in sharp terms, Sanchez blames the Democrats in equal measure. He calls out partisans on all sides for exploiting the war for their own political benefit rather than the good of the nation, and blames the lack of range for strategic options on the corrosive debate that has hamstrung the range of choices."
• Michelle Malkin: "Gen. Sanchez's full-throated attack on the MSM is thoroughly deserved and much of it is on target, but I'd take it with a grain of salt given his rather oddly passionate defense of crony bureaucrat and disgraced FEMA director Michael Brown. Weird. And not very reassuring."

Commenting on the New York Times coverage of the speech, Talk Left's Big Tent Democrat notes Brookings Scholar Michael O'Hanlon's criticism of Sanchez and remarks: "Why does Hillary Clinton need to disavow the support of Michael O'Hanlon? Why does his support or non-support matter in the scheme of things? ... Because of Hillary's vote in support of granting President Bush the power to go to war against Iraq in 2002. ... Because if Michael O'Hanlon were an honest man, and he is not, he should not be supporting Hillary Clinton at all. He should be fiercely criticizing her. The support of Michael O'Hanlon, supporter of the Bush policy on Iraq, must be disavowed by the Clinton campaign. She has not earned our trust on Iraq. She can not expect that her acceptance of O'Hanlon's support would not be troubling to any one who cares about ending the Iraq Debacle."

THOUGHT OF THE DAY: The Best German Of All

Commenting on Franck Rich's 10/14 "The 'Good Germans' Among Us" column "lamenting how 'we' have let the war go on, and are as complicit as the Germans during the Nazi regime," Open Left's Matt Stoller links to Rich's criticism of MoveOn's Gen. Betray Us ad and comments: "Rich is operating according to the rules of the media elite. It's ok to whine about the problem, but try to do anything about it and you're getting very much uncivil, sir. Lots of people might be loving Frank Rich's column today that says that Americans are responsible for what America does. Of course, many of us passed the basics of citizenship 101 in grade school, and have been working to try to fix the political system ever since we woke up and noticed a group of lunatics and incompetents in charge. For instance, Moveon, which apparently is a juvenile McCarthyite group."

LEST WE FORGET: And You Thought Bloggers Were Self-Indulgent

Instapunditwatches CNN 10/14 and comments: "Howard Kurtz interviewed Howard Kurtz on Howard Kurtz's Reliable Sources today. The subject? Howard Kurtz's new book! This seems to reflect a profound moment in modern journalism, somehow.