September 06, 2007

9/6: Law & Disorder

Without his Law & Order fame, Fred Thompson probably would not even be in the race, but it is also possible that the contrast between the scripted, made up, well lighted Arthur Branch, and the live, admittedly wrinkly Thompson could cost him the race before he even gets going. More than a few conservatives voiced concern over Thompson's appearance last night, and there is a strong possibility that voters will also be underwhelmed by the non-Arthur Branch version of Thompson. Perhaps more importantly, a 'bad-manager' meme seems to be taking hold among likely Thompson converts. AmSpec Blog's Quinn Hilyer's sentiments are perfectly representative: "I like him. He has tremendous potential. ... But he still has yet to prove that he can actually run an organization. ... his staff turnover has gone beyond initial growing pains into a serious indicator of something not-quite-right -- at the very least, of a callousness about the lives of individuals who would otherwise serve him."

THOMPSON: Power Shortage

Conservative reaction to Fred Thompson's Jay Leno announcement were mixed at best. Before Thompson even taped the segment there were complaints about the forum. The Corner's Kathryn Jean Lopez linked to Rush Limbaugh's disapproval ("there's a more dignified way of doing this") and comments: "If you're a Republican who wants to be president, you really don't want Rush down on you (John McCain feels that pain).... and before you even get in at that." Townhall's Mary Katharine Ham took issue with the Thompson explanation that more 'regular people' would be watching Leno than the GOP debate: "That's true. They don't, at least not this early in the process. But you know who does? Regularly voting, passionate, involved conservatives and Republicans in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina."

Reactions to Thompson's actual performance include:

• AmSpec Blog's Philip Klein: "[T]he appearance on Leno [was] rather underwhelming. I thought he was perfectly likeable, but not necessarily presidential. He didn't do anything to live up to the enormous expectations by emitting the star power, charisma, or communication skills that have been the basis for much of the enthusiasm about his candidacy."
• The Corner's Cliff May: "Jay Leno's questions were not stupid but they also were not "sophisticated." They were the kinds of questions likely to be asked by the tens of millions of people who watch entertainment rather than news. The people who skip the editorials and go for the sports and style sections And those voters are, almost by definition, swing voters."
• Ace of Spades: "He looks kind of frail and is definitely not bringing the rock star quality I had hoped for. Too think, and the thinness ages him. If he lost weight to run for president, he might want to think about adding back a few gravitas pounds."
• NRO's Jim Geraghty: "The Upsides: Thompson is a likeable figure ... but he looked a lot lighter than I'm used to seeing. I know he's no spring chicken, but he looked old."
• AmSpec Blog's Jennifer Rubin: "Perhaps Thompson had not counted on the classlessness and sheer stupidity of the show on which he was appearing but that would fall into the category of bringing things on oneself. Did he really compare favorably to his competitors tonight? ... Criticizing the format from the Leno couch seemed particularly galling."

Thompson's web video announcement opened to warmer reviews but Townhall's Mary Katharine Ham worries about Thompson's word choice: "Fred 'intends to run for president.' Is that like how [Larry] Craig 'intends' to resign?" Ha."

Also, Captain's Quarters and Right Wing News are soliciting their readers to participate in Thompson's promise to answer blogger questions daily via video.

NH DEBATE: Iraq, Immigration, And Taxes

John McCain was the consensus winner of the 9/5 NH debate, but many conservatives didn't see anything that would change anybody's mind. The Corner's Kathryn Jean Lopez blogs: "McCain won. Rudy was good. Romney wasn't bad. Fred wasn't there. Nothing changed." Townhall's Matt Lewis ("But the bottom line is that tonight's debate lacked truly great moments") and Captain's Quarters ("The New Hampshire debate has finally ended, and once again, nothing will really resonate past the next couple of days") both seemed to agree.

It did not seem as though anyone missed Thompson. The Corner's Seth Leibsohn blogs: "Has anyone over the past hour and a half said, 'I really wish Fred were up there, I'd like to hear his answer.' That's Fred Thompson's challenge in the next three weeks: the necessity for his campaign, which arguably was much greater four and five months ago before these candidates got their campaign and debating sea legs."

Riehl World View tracked the Fox News 'People Meter' and notes: "Putting the candidates aside for a moment, what I saw was that when the message was win in Iraq, it didn't matter which candidate was saying it - the numbers for both conservatives and moderates went through the roof. And the stronger the talk, the higher the mean number. The only other issues that came close were immigration and taxes - the more talk there was of lower taxes, the higher the meter went. And moderates, as well as conservatives, wanted straight, tough talk on illegal immigration, as well."

Besides the big three, Duncan Hunter inspired the most postings. Specific candidate reviews include:

DEBATE GIULIANI: If You Get Caught Between GOPers And New York City...

• Right Wing News: "He really choked on the immigration questions ... He also spent an inordinate amount of time talking about his success as Mayor of New York which is understandable given his background, but it seemed a little Mickey Mouse given that he's running for President."
• The Corner's John Podhoretz: "Rudy just had his best debate moment ... going head-on at his greatest potential weakness, his messy family situation, and essentially asking voters to note that he did his job well regardless of personal difficulties. It's the only answer he can give, really, and it was very nearly perfect. ... Whether it will work we won't know until this is all decided."
• The Corner's David Freddoso: "[I]sn't he the one who made his private life into a public matter? I don't know anyone else who has ever called a press conference to separate from his wife and introduce his mistress...
• The Corner's Mark Hemingway: "I'm pretty sure I saw a tumbleweed blow across the stage during Giuliani's response to the question about his family values."
• Ankle Biting Pundit's Bull Dog Pundit: "Rudy needs to stop constantly bringing everything back to what he did in New York City. Yes, it was impressive, but he sounded like Johnny One-Note."
• The Corner's Rich Lowry: "NYC Overkill. Rudy is suffering from it tonight."

DEBATE HUNTER: He's Good Enough, He's Smart Enough, And Doggone Kate O'Beirne Likes Him

• The Corner's Kate O'Beirne: "I would like to see the debate field depopulated except for Duncan Hunter. His chances aren't any better than the other also-rans but he's not as irritating. He's smart and sober. My bias? I like him."
• Townhall's Mary Katharine Ham: "Duncan Hunter shined in the second tier. Really smart guy with really in-depth answers, especially on Iraq and Iran."
• NRO's Jim Geraghty: "Duncan Hunter nearly avoids being in the final category, but come on, Congressman. You're not going anywhere. This ain't the preseason anymore. Everybody watching respects you, but if you were gonna catch fire, it would have happened by now."

DEBATE MCCAIN: Never Give Up! Never Surrender!

• The Corner's Rich Lowry: "I think McCain won ... His answers on Iraq and Iran were passionate and deeply informed. It also helped create the impression that he had the upper-hand tonight that Giuliani and Huckabee gave him props three times. Combine all this with the fact that he was relaxed, feisty, and fluid, and it was a strong night for him."
• The Corner's Seth Leibsohn: "McCain's night so far....a lot were saying McCain was toast for the last few weeks, if so, I don't think he's burnt toast. He's looked more fresh and sounded more clear than any debate this year and he's finally relaxed."
• AmSpec Blog's Jennifer Rubin: "McCain helped himself tremendously -reminding us why it is better to have an experienced, sober adult at the helm of American foreign policy.
• The Brody File: "McCain looked like a very strong commander in chief. He had a game plan going in to let people know he's the man to lead in Iraq and beyond and if the military surge keeps working and political reconciliation begins to take hold, he may be in a position for a comeback."
• The Corner's Kathryn Jean Lopez: "It's worth noting, too, that he's about to go into weeks this month where we will be seeing his best face - no surrender - and often. That will make it a little easier for people to forget what his numbers have looked like and how much money he doesn't have in the bank."
• AmSpec Blog's Philip Klein: "At the height of the McCain-is-on-the-verge-of-dropping-out talk, I argued that once the intensity of the anger over the immigration bill died down, and the conversation shifted to Iraq, McCain would have an opening to recover, especially because he was facing lower expectations. I think we saw that tonight."
• The Corner's David Freddoso: "McCain is doing well, but he still has the same problems on immigration and taxes, and he's been called out on both."

DEBATE ROMNEY: Ron Paul Lite?

• The Corner's David Freddoso: "Romney is glad the surge is working, but he wants it to give us an opportunity for a drawdown soon. He might be the one guy, aside from Ron Paul, who understands that the GOP nominee has to promise to get us out of Iraq if he is to have a prayer of winning."
• The Corner's Rich Lowry: "McCain scores against Romney: hones in on a weak spot in his rhetoric and drives it home. All of Romney's body language says he's uncomfortable with the war. Probably his worst moment in any of the debates."
• AmSpec's Jennifer Rubin: "Romney needs to react in a human way to voters -- the military father was mad and asked for an apology and Romney seemed indifferent."
• NRO's Jim Geraghty: "Romney: It wasn't just me - his answers on Iraq just seemed a little off, not his strongest performance."
• Power Line's Paul Mirengoff: "Romney seemed defensive and, at times, evasive. His answers on Iraq were rambling. When the deputy sheriff in the restaurant called him out for not articulating an "end game" strategy, Romney was unable, I thought, to take advantage of the opportunity."

HUCKABEE: Better Than They Used To Be

The Brody File posts his The 700 Club package on Mike Huckabee and asks readers: "Let me know what you think about Huckabee and his chances."

DEM FIELD: Rude Awakenings Ahead

Open Left's Chris Bowers divides the Dem Field's positions on Iraq into three categories:

• No residual forces outside of embassy protection: Richardson, Kucinich. This would require 5,000 to 10,000 troops, though possibly less, depending on the size of the embassy each would decide to maintain in Iraq.
• Residual forces for embassy and personnel protection: Edwards. This would require between 5,000 and 10,000 troops for the embassy, and probably a similar number outside of the embassy. So, 10,000 to 20,000 seems likely.
• Residual forces for counter-terrorism, Iraqi troop training, personnel protection and embassy protection: Clinton, Dodd and Obama, plus Biden conditionally. This will require roughly 40,000 troops, plus the number of advisors for the Iraqi military, plus an indeterminate amount of mercenaries private contractors. The Biden plan might require as few as 20,000, depending on the circumstances.

Bowers concludes: "I have to admit, given the criteria I laid out for presidential candidates last week, this causes me to swing away from leaning Obama toward leaning Edwards. However, I am still not ready to make an endorsement."

Later Bowers uses Diageo / Hotline produced a poll to show "Democrats Grossly Misinformed On Candidate Plans For Iraq." After crunching the numbers Bowers concludes:

Overwhelming majorities of Democrats, 76% and 71% for Clinton and Obama respectively, think that Clinton and Obama will engage in much more thorough withdrawal from Iraq than their plans actually indicate. Why do Democrats think that Clinton and Obama will withdraw all troops in nine months, when they have both clearly stated that they are actually in favor of option #2? Probably because Clinton and Obama keep saying that they will end the war, but rarely mention that they want to keep some forces in Iraq to, as Obama says on this website ... Unless something changes in the next few months, voters will be in for a rude awakening when they find out that virtually every candidate for President with a real chance of becoming the nominee of either major party, save possibly Edwards and definitely save Richardson, are way more hawkish on Iraq than they are believed to be.

OBAMA: Learning Curves In All The Right Places

Media MattersEric Alterman looks at the foreign policy teams surrounding Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama and concludes:

I think it's fair to say that here Clinton really would be Clinton II and if you liked that, you'll like this. It's the Democratic Establishment, for better and for worse. Obama's faces are fresher and more open to questioning the verities of the Brookings Institution and the Council on Foreign Relations. ... Obama's refusal to endorse the war, his early embrace of Samantha Power during his first year in the Senate and his association with Sarah Sewall and Larry Korb, mentioned above, speak extremely well both of his self-confidence and his willingness to look at problems anew. An Obama presidency may have a steeper learning curve than a Clinton presidency in foreign policy, but it may learn more worthwhile things.

Meanwhile, TAPPED's Garance Franke-Ruta seconds doubts that Obama is shoe in for Al Gore's endorsement: "Yes, there are commonalties between the two, but taking all the chatter I've heard over the past year into account, I would have to say that there are doubts in Gore circles -- which may or may not have any impact on the former vice president's eventual decision -- about Obama's electability, as well."

IRAQ: The Man (Who Will Be Back Later) With A Plan

John Kerry has posts up at Daily Kos and The Huffington Post exclaiming "The Escalation Didn't Work." Kerry blogs:

The entire Iraq policy of George W. Bush has failed since the fall of Saddam Hussein's statue in Baghdad. ... I chaired a hearing on the GAO Report yesterday, the report that stated that Iraqi civilians overall aren't any safer, that the political benchmarks aren't being met in Iraq, that, in short, none of the rationales for the escalation in Iraq have come to pass. ... But the main question is: what can we do about it? ... I'll be back with some specific actions from time to time because concerted action by many people toward a single goal gets the best results. But do as much as you can all the time. Drop by your representatives' office and let them know your feelings. Write, call, fax, email, get in contact any way you can.

Atrios has a slightly different but simpler plan: "I don't know what it'll take to make Democrats understand that they can oppose this hated president and this hated war and get away with it. They can keep sending him the same funding bill over and over until he signs it, going on the teevee every night fretting that the preznit wants to leave our troops in Iraq without food and bullets."

Open Left's Chris Bowers notes that private contractors outnumber US troops in Iraq and suggests: "One possibility I have been considering today would be to craft two distinct supplemental funding bills. The first bill would appropriate some of the money directly to the armed services. The second bill would appropriates the rest of the requested funding to private contractors and the reconstruction effort only on the condition of a binding timeline for the withdrawal of 90% or more of all private contractors from Iraq. ... the 78 members who are, quite frankly, too scared to keep sending conditional appropriation bills back to Bush would no longer have to worry about 'denying funding to troops in the field.'"

THOUGHT OF THE DAY: Do It Yourself, Or Don't Bother

Election Geek explains why he is no fan of most candidate blogs:

Did you read the blog post on the candidate Web site where the blogger gushed over the candidate and outlined the talking points of the campaign? So did I, over and over and over again. I have to be honest, I follow a lot of blogs but I almost never read the blog sections of the candidate's sites. I cannot imagine most of you do either.

The problem with these blogs isn't entirely the fault of the bloggers but the premise, which is you take a bunch of people and have them write positively about a campaign. There is no excitement there, no room to grow, no running dialogue ... Blogging to me is an intensely personal thing. It is a writer using a medium to connect with people, to share thoughts, facts, opinions, and in some ways a stream of consciousness which points to music, art, literature, moving pictures and sounds that the author comes in contact with in their daily lives. Bloggers are reporters and are also personalities we connect with, grow with, get to know. Blogs are an awesome tool for a candidate to reach out to people but from what I have seen few if any are really utilizing them.

LEST WE FORGET: Colts! Saints! 8:30 PM Tonight!

Deadspsin has had already had their fill of NBC contributor Tiki Barber:

Barber's so good on air that you can almost forget that everything he says pretty much marks him an a**hole.
Listen, we're no big fans of Tom Coughlin, but Barber's continued thrashing of the Giants coach -- even going so far as to say he'd still be playing football if it weren't for Coughlin -- is self-aggrandizement in its worst form. Neverminding that Barber, pre-Coughlin, was a fumbling machine; mostly, we just are amused by the fiction that poor little Tiki had his love for the game taken away by the screaming man with the headset. Barber knows what he's doing; these little New York media feuds are exactly what keeps people like Barber with their names headlining everything. It's a crock.

Posted by Conn Carroll at September 6, 2007 12:52 PM