September 25, 2007

9/25: Any Given Sunday

The Sunday talk show circuit may seem like an odd place to pick up netroots support, but Hillary Clinton may have done just that 9/23. It was not anything she said in particular that won the netroots over (if anything they still strongly disagree with her on a host of issues from insurance company involvement in health care to condemning MoveOn to the veracity of her promise to end the Iraq war), but the fact that she dominated every forum she engaged. Clinton has steadily gained in the Daily Kos monthly straw poll; from 3% as recently as 4/07 to 11% today. If HRC does win the nomination, and then picks a netroots favorite son to fill out her ticket, we should expect to see a once skeptical online community highly energized for her candidacy.

DEM FIELD: No Stuffing This Ballot Box

DailyKos' founder Markos Moulitsas conducted the sites 9/07 straw poll 9/24. To thwart "various candidate fan sites, message boards, and list-servs" Kos cut the voting after the numbers stabilized. Results from 9/07 and 8/07 include:

                  9/07  8/07
Edwards      39     34
Obama          21    29
Clinton          11      8
Dodd              7      2
Kucinich         6      7
Richardson    1      6

Concerned over Bill Richardson's drop in the poll, Open Left's Chris Bowers asked Kossacks why they voted for their candidates considering "there does not appear to be a huge number of policy differences between the candidates who are receiving a significant amount of online support" particularly Bowers is concerned about "Richardson dropping in the Dailykos straw poll, despite his stance on no residual forces."

Later Bowers reports: "one of the most common responses was that people were looking for 'leadership.' I want to point out that among the entire 2008 field, no one has successfully led Congress on Iraq so far in 2007. ... In fact,Levin-Reid, Reid-Feingold and the Webb amendment are all actually losing votes as the year progresses. ... Successful leadership is actually causing the debate to bend in your direction, and gathering support where none previously existed. According to this criteria, when it comes to the impact of the 2008 Presidential field on the Iraq fight in Congress, no one has done that."

CLINTON: The Sultan Of Sunday?

While Hillary Clinton did disappoint some bloggers on some specific issues (The Huffington Post's Jamie Court wants to end private health insurance and Fire Dog Lake's Jane Hamsher isn't happy HRC condemned MoveOn), her overall performance wowed many in the community. MyDD's Todd Beeton writes:

The pundits fell right into the trap she set, putting voice to the exact message Clinton wanted them to: she's "strong," "responsible," "presidential." She played them like a fiddle. Clinton appears to be banking on a slightly different lesson: that in fact running down the middle is a winning strategy as long as you convince people that your positions are sincere and come from a place of strength, not weakness, a feat Clinton appears to be accomplishing, if the reactions to her Sunday talk show appearances are any indication.

Talking Point Memo's Ben Craw was also a fan: "2008 Democratic frontrunner Senator Hillary Clinton (D-NY) took the airwaves by force Sunday morning, flexing her political might with appearances on all five Sunday talk shows. And her dial was turned to 11 the entire time, flooding the zone with details of her recently unveiled healthcare proposal, denunciations of the Bush approach to Iraq, and a wall-to-wall drumbeat of determination to become the next President of the United States."

On the right, Townhall's Patrick Ruffini watches HRC's Sunday show lap and channels Open Left's Chris Bowers' blurring worries:

By telling us in the most explicit terms yet that she will not withdraw from Iraq in 2009, she must believe she has the nomination wrapped up. And she is beginning to protect her flank from what I have long believed to be our most lethal argument against her. ... The Clintons have promised Democrat primary voters that they will "end the war" once Camelot is restored. Which begs the question that our nominee should begin asking on February 6th, "Okay. When?" Our best argument against Hillary is not that she will end the war. It's that she won't.

EDWARDS: The Spirit Of NCLB

Netroots reaction to John Edwards 9/21 education plan are beginning to trickle in. The Huffington Post's Dan Brown is a huge fan: "As a teacher and voter, I am hugely impressed with John Edwards' comprehensive education agenda, unveiled over the past weekend. ... The Edwards initiatives indicate that he "gets" the needs of children and teachers, an encouraging bellwether. ... He proposes higher pay for teachers -- particularly strong veterans -- to teach in high-needs schools. This will fuel a redistribution of resources that will help lift up poor and suffering neighborhoods."

Matthew Yglesias is also sympathetic but also notes: "On K-12, I think he pulls the nice political trick of loudly denouncing No Child Left Behind while actually proposing further reforms that are fairly consistent with the spirit of the law, aimed at improving a flawed-but-worthy effort rather than backsliding away from the concept of accountability." The Washington Monthly's Kevin Drum is still reserving judgment: "A 'West Point' for teachers? I'll hold off on endorsing that idea until it gets fleshed out a little more."

In less positive Edwards blogging, The Huffington Post's Marc Cooper sees SEIU's 9/24 failure to endorse Edwards as a "major reversal" for the campaign. From Cooper: "The SEIU leadership seems anxious to make some sort of endorsement and will be meeting again in the second week of October where the matter is likely to be reconsidered. In the interim, the third quarter fund raising totals of each campaign will be disclosed and most guesstimates figure that Obama will be showing twice or three times the amounts garnered by Edwards. 'We love John,' said the SEIU official. 'But politics is all about winning.'"

Open Left's Mike Lux reports that "Obama and Clinton staffers" he's talked to share SEIU's doubts about Edwards ability to be a factor: "I don't think anybody is counting him out in Iowa, but my sense is the Clinton and Obama staffers are skeptical that even if he wins Iowa, he may not have the ability to sustain a campaign too far beyond Iowa."

OBAMA: Applied Topically, Barack Also Cures Cancer

Marc Ambinder introduces the latest strategy memo from Barack Obama's manager David Plouffe, writing:

In private, Obama likens himself to Reagan, according to some of his friends. He believes that the very act of Americans choosing to elect him would amount to the biggest foreign policy advance of the past 20 years, would immediately change the way, say, a young boy in Lahore views this country, would crush the propaganda gains of radical Islam since the end of the first Gulf War, would heal the scar that serves as a reminder of America's original sin (slavery), would directly engage the mass Muslim world in a way that no one who voted for oil or empire could, and ... you get the idea.

Plouffe's memo goes on to make the case polls are underestimating Obama's real support:

First, young voters are dramatically less likely to have caucused or voted regularly in primaries in the past, so pollsters heavily under-represent them. Second, young voters are more mobile and are much less likely to be at home in the early evening and thus less likely to be interviewed in any survey. Third, young voters are much less likely to have a landline phone and much more likely to rely exclusively upon cell phones, which are automatically excluded from phone surveys.

Pollster.com's Mark Blumenthal responds:

Each of the Plouffe's three arguments is at least theoretically plausible, particularly in Iowa, but hard to prove or disprove conclusively with the data available. ... Pollsters will argue and disagree among themselves about the best way to model and weight likely voters in a state like Iowa. We will not be able to resolve those arguments here. ... Although Plouffe may be cherry-picking an unusually favorable result, the national surveys consistently show Obama doing better among younger voters. But how much is the age difference in Iowa and how much do the Iowa polls (or any of the other early states) vary by vary in their age composition? Who knows?

Open Left's Mike Lux blogs on Obama's strategy: "Obama's team is clearly more focused on capitalizing on the excitement among young people and people who haven't attended the caucuses before, and getting them to turn out. Paul Tewes, their state director, mentioned to me that they did an analysis of 2000 caucus-goers vs. 2004 caucus-goers, and found only 23% overlap. ... Obama's strategy, which is highly risky but has a very high reward factor if it works, is to excite and enlist people who've never gone to the caucuses before. ... if they are able to bring in a lot of newbies, they would win."

Also in IA, the IA Independent's John Deeth reports pollster John Zogby is a big Obama fan. From Zogby: "Obama has an incredible understanding of the issues. This is just an incredibly smart guy."

RICHARDSON: A Right To Know

Bill Richardson enlisted the help of Open Left's Chris Bowers and Matt Stoller as well as Fire Dog Lake's Siun to produce his new television ad 'Get Our Troops Out'. Bowers pitches:

Despite what other Democrats are telling you, Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama in particular, you cannot end the war and still have American troops in Iraq. That simply does not make any sense. ... I am thrilled to be working with Bill Richardson on this issue. While this ad is not an official endorsement of Bill Richardson's candidacy, it is an endorsement of his no residual forces plan for Iraq. It is an endorsement of his leadership on the issue.

Siun adds: "At the very least, our candidates owe us clear, transparent information on their Iraq plans. As voters and as party activists, we certainly have a right to know if they plan to leave tens of thousands of troops in Iraq. It's time for all the campaigns to tell us: How many troops would you leave behind in Iraq?

MyDD's Todd Beeton comments: "Richardson has a side-by-side comparison chart over at GetOurTroopsOut.com that sums up their stated positions (or lack thereof.) Richardson deserves credit for demanding clarity on this issue where the other candidates have refused to provide it."

GIULIANI: Going For That Vaunted 'Johns' Demographic?

Townhall's Matt Lewis swings by Rudy Giuliani's website and notices: "Despite the prostitution scandals, Rudy Giuliani's website hasn't scrubbed Sen. David Vitter references from his website. In fact, a David Vitter op-ed from March 28 is featured as one of Rudy's most viewed links. It would be interesting to know if this was an oversight, or a matter of Rudy sticking by Vitter ..."

HUCKABEE: Up With Mike

Robert Bluey helps promote Mike Huckabee's "Vertical Day" designed to share "with voters our ideas, our hopes for America and the challenges facing us." Bluey "was blown away by all the activity on the blog for Vertical Day. With posts by former Speaker Newt Gingrich, South Dakota Gov. Mike Rounds, former South Carolina Gov. David Beasley and many other guest bloggers, it's well worth your time to check out the site. Here's video of Huckabee discussing Gingrich's debate pledge."

ROMNEY: In Mitt They Don't Yet Trust

Townhall's Dean Barnett was unsettled by what he read from the GOP's Mackinac Island cattle call: "For Republicans hoping to hold on to the White House, it was a chilling weekend. ... Everyone knows where I stand in this campaign - I'm a Romney guy. I know him personally and have for a long time. ... During his Mackinac speech, Mitt said that he would move the 'In God We Trust' from the back of our currency to the front. He also assured the gathered Michiganders that he'd 'make sure that our future is defined not by the letters ACLU, but by the letters USA.' These comments bother me a lot, probably more than they bother most people, even ones who don't support Romney. ... Mitt is better than this - I know it, and that's why I support him. But the rest of the country hasn't known him for over a decade. If the rest of the country gets to know the guy I know, he'll be a political force. If they get to know a guy who talks about what side of the coin 'In God We Trust' should go on, it will be a different story."

Also blogging on MI and Mitt, NRO's Jim Geraghty's asks, "In Michigan, what is the Romney name worth in terms of support?" Geraghty elaborates: "I've heard Mitt-backers say that fond memories of his father have given him a deep reservoir of support, and that this is in fact the blue state Romney has the best shot of winning over to the red column. ... I asked Michigan GOP Chairman Saul Anuzis for his take, and he said, 'I think if you are older than 55, you probably have some 'good memories' of Governor Romney, and there are a lot of people over 55 in Michigan. If you're older than 47 or so, you may have still met Romney, like I did as a cub scout. So it will help with name ID and probably help build a positive impression.' ... Watching Romney greeting voters on C-SPAN about a week or two ago, I remember one woman coming up and telling him he was the spitting image of his father."

THOMPSON: Didn't Social Conservatives Already Have A Whole Field Of Candidates They Weren't Really Happy With?

The Southern Baptist Convention's Richard Land has come to Fred Thompson's defense after recent attacks by Focus on the Family Founder James Dobson. In an email to The Brody File, Land writes: "I've received phone calls and emails from Southern Baptists about Senator Thompson. They are all furious at Doctor Dobson. They just feel that first of all there was a mischaracterizing of his positions. Do I wish that he supported the marriage protection amendment? Of course I do. To say that he is for 50 different views of marriage in 50 different states is a gross mischaracterization of his position. Secondly, do I wish that he attended church every Sunday? As a Baptist pastor, of course I do. But does that make him a person of unbelief? That's harsh and unwarranted."

Brody comments: "The split between Dobson and Land on Thompson is a microcosm of what's going on right now within the Evangelical movement. There are those who think Thompson is the guy and others who don't." Race4'08s Tommy Oliver links and adds: "Whether you agree with Dobson or Land or don't like any of them; with the failing health of Billy Graham, Pat Robertson's slow slide from prominence, and the death of Jerry Falwell, we are witnessing a power struggle between the religious powers that be. One one side, you have Land, Bauer, Family Research Council's Tony Perkins, and some others. On the other side, you have James Dobson, most likely Robertson, and others who have remained in the background thus far."

Brody revisits the subject again, reporting: "I've been told that some evangelical leaders will be meeting with Thompson this week. Part of the discussion will focus on his position regarding a federal marriage amendment. ... One person close to the process told me, 'Support has stalled because of his stance on the federal marriage amendment. ... There were high expectations. He not only did not make these expectations, he did poor coming out But if he comes around on marriage, he can potentially do it.'"

Brody then quotes American Values pres. Gary Bauer on concerns "that social conservatives may be looking too much for perfection." From Bauer: "Politics at the end of the day is getting 50 percent plus one and I'm afraid that our movement in the last couple of years has been using an approach that will make us feel better about the purity of our positions but is shrinking our movement."

THOUGHT OF THE DAY: A Case For Partisanship

A reader dissents from Andrew Sullivan's dream of an unpolarized polity:

There seems to be an assumption that politicians are divided, but Americans wish to be more united. The problem is: we are the divisions. There is no "us" (citizens) and "them" (national politicians). The pols reflect our divisions. ... Obama is an exceptional man for all of the reasons you have articulated on your blog. But I am not convinced that Americans want to be brought together. They may not want things to be as divided as they are now, but we still are divided on many key issues. And we're divided on what we should care about: economics vs values, for instance. Remember: It was just 3 short years ago that 61 million people voted for GWB --- well after it was evident that his presidency was a disaster. The fact is, Hillary vs Rudy may be exactly what the electorate wants.

LEST WE FORGET: Rexy Not So Sexy After All

DailyKos' founder Markos Moulitsas circa 1/29/07: "I'm fascinated at the crazy, fact-free narratives formed around Grossman's "problems". It's not unlike politics. Once the media has latched on to its narrative, it seems nothing will shake it loose. Nothing, that is, until Grossman leads the Bears to a Super Bowl victory. At that point, they can put the "Grossman sucks" narrative on hiatus until training camp this fall."

DailyKos' founder Markos Moulitsas circa 9/25/07: "What the hell is Rex Grossman still doing on a football field? And damn, is Tony Romo a stud or what? Sigh... Well, I'll always have the Cubs and their impending first round playoff loss."

Posted by Conn Carroll at September 25, 2007 12:37 PM