July 09, 2007

7/9: Obama Is No Dean

While Barack Obama's fundraising totals are impressive by themselves (both in dollars raised and total donors), any comparison to Howard Dean's '04 movement are tenuous at best. Looking at Q1 numbers, MyDD's Jerome Armstrong notes that only a quarter of Obama's funds came from the internet, compared to over half of Dean's. Armstrong also plays up anecdotal evidence that much of Obama's low-dollar Q2 donors came from a strong student-based strategy focussing on paid "concert" like speaking events. If the typical Dean/internet donor was a guy in his 40s with an advanced degree, than it appears the typical Obama donor is a Tufts senior selling Obama tickets outside his dorm.

It is unclear why Obama has not inspired the same voices that fought for Dean, but Grist's David Robert's assessment of Obama's record on the environment may offer a clue: "rhetoric is soaring and high-minded, the policy proposals consensus-seeking and incremental." Daily Kos refugee and Talk Left blogger Big Tent Democrat/Armando makes a similar argument here, specifically that Obama has let others in the field, like John Edwards, outflank him on the left on the war. Something that would have never happened to Dean.

DEM FIELD: Help Us Al, You're Our Only Hope

MyDD's PsiFighter37 posts graphs showing Dem WH '08 data from the past three months from ARG, NBC News, Quinnipiac, CBS News, Fox News, CNN, RT Strategies, and USA TODAY polling and concludes with the following analysis:

• Hillary Clinton remains in a strong position nationally. ... While some polls show her trending either up or down, she still maintains a healthy lead over her closest competitors.
• Barack Obama must find a way to expand his support. While he has made a splash with his entry into the race, along with raising ungodly amounts of money through an amazing base of support, Obama has barely been able to make the kind of permanent dent in Clinton's edge that he needs. ... Obama has not seen the numbers on the national scale (or the local polls, either) that he should be seeing.
• John Edwards is being marginalized and is on the verge of becoming a second-tier candidate. ... He continues to lead in Iowa, but barely - both Clinton and Obama are breathing down his neck, and if he cannot maintain his lead in Iowa and win there, his campaign is dead.
• Al Gore's potential candidacy will have a material effect on this race. If Gore does not enter this race, it will be an immense boost to Clinton's campaign - somewhat ironic, considering that Gore and Hillary Clinton never much liked one another.

DEM FIELD II: Just Obama Being Obaman

Grist's David Roberts asks "How Green Is Your Candidate?" and posts "a quick and dirty rundown of some of the Democratic contenders' stances" including:

• Hillary Clinton dutifully toes the Democratic line on climate change and energy independence, seeing the former as a way to reach young people and the latter as a way to sound tough. She's been somewhat vague on the details.
• Barack Obama's take on energy and climate is, well, Obaman: the rhetoric is soaring and high-minded, the policy proposals consensus-seeking and incremental. ... His main splash in the energy world happened when he came out cheerleading for liquified coal, which coal barons (especially in his home state of Illinois) loved but plenty of other folks hated; he later "clarified" his way back to safety. On these issues, Obama is largely platitudinous and reserved.
• John Edwards is running left. What mixture of genuine sentiment and political calculation is behind that strategy only he and Elizabeth know, but it's translated into far and away the strongest, most comprehensive climate and energy plan among the three front-runners. ... On these issues, Edwards has done his homework and he's not trimming his sails.
• Bill Richardson wants to be the "energy president" and the plan he's put forward is a humdinger. ... On these issues, Richardson has an appropriate sense of urgency.
• Chris Dodd's climate and energy plan has largely been overlooked, much like, um, Chris Dodd. But if anything, it's more ambitious than even Richardson's.

Also on the environment, MoveOn.org hosted a virtual Townhall on Climate Change, and Left in the West invites '08ers to study up on "the Rocky Mountain politics of land, water, the outdoors, and access."

OBAMA: Obamaway

Continuing to distinguish Howard Dean's '04 run with Barack Obama's fundraising success, MyDD's Jerome Armstrong links to Boston Magazinereporting of a Obama call for $5 donations at a rally in Cleveland that author Sasha Issenberg likened to Amway: "[I]t's about getting people to buy in--with the idea that once their dollars are committed, they will be, too."

Armstrong responds: "Yea, it is. I'll disagree with the Obama campaign over whether their innovative fundraising success forms a legitimate basis from which to brag about having the largest/strongest/awesomest presidential campaign ever in presidential history (which is pretty much what Obama's campaign claims), but it does form the basis for a stellar fundraising movement. ... Solomont counted the preliminary take from the event: A total of 5,700 tickets had been sold, bringing in over $700,000, including more than $100,000 from students alone. $100K from students? That's unheard of before Obama, and really points to a breakthrough discovery by the Obama fundraising team-- well-to-do students with disposable income. They've created a network whereby one college individual will use their college network to make the sale on campuses across america."

Armstrong concludes: "As for youth voting, I do not think that is really a factor that will be called into question too much, given the '04-'06 exit polling done that shows such an increase. More youth (18-29) than ever will in the general election for 2008, but their doing so in a democratic primary or caucus is probably debatable until it happens."

WEBB: But What If Webb's On The Ticket?

Power Line's Paul Mirengoff doubts Washington Postanalysis that VA will likely go Dem in '08 for the first time since '64: "One way to look at the prospects for 2008 is to consider the outcome of the 2006 Virginia Senate race. Democrat James Webb won that contest by 9,000 votes. The Democrats clearly will not nominate for president anyone with Webb's appeal to independent Virginia voters, and the likely nominee (Hillary Clinton) won't have anything close to Webb's appeal."

GIULIANI: Why Doesn't Anyone Ever Support The Unfair Tax?

RedState's Pejman Yousefzadeh hits Rudy Giuliani for purportedly coming out against a flat tax, rationalizing "Our economy is dependent upon the way our tax system operates." PY says he personally prefers a consumption tax, and advises Giuliani: "The design and enactment of a tax reform package that simplifies the tax system should be a no-brainer. Instead, a Republican Presidential candidate somehow seems to think that we ought to stay with the status quo and that we should just content ourselves with keeping rates low."

NRO's Jim Geraghty also followed the story, but notes that there are conflicting reports about whether Giuliani came out against the flat tax or the fair/consumption tax. Geraghty adds his two cents on tax policy: "This is not to say candidates shouldn't support bold, sweeping changes to the tax code, but considering the enormity of the changes the switch-over would bring, "I have to study it some more," does not strike me as an unreasonable answer."

MCCAIN: What Was Your Favorite Moment Of The McCain Era?

Hit and Run's David Weigel reports from outside Ron Paul's 7/8 appearance on This Week: "I just left the scene outside of Ron Paul's interview with George Stephanopoulos in downtown D.C. Before he headed in to the Mayflower Hotel, Paul milled around with a gaggle of around 30 supporters and I asked him if he had more cash on hand than John McCain. "Somebody said we might, when the numbers come in," he said. "At least we're on the up slope, not the down slope." ... And then he confirmed it for ABC News: He has $2.4 million on hand, $400,000 more than John McCain."

ROMNEY: He's Mormon, Not That's There Anything Wrong With That

Townhall's Hugh Hewitt took fellow conservative NRO's Jim Geraghty to task for writing about a Mitt Romney candidacy: "After eight months of covering a Romney campaign, the mainstream media will make the Mormon church resemble Wahhabism without the melanin." Hewitt responded: "I agree some MSMers will try, just as many lefties have already tried to use religious bigotry to attack Romney. ... The efforts of center-right pundits is better spent responding to both the nonsensical attacks and the far more serious expressions of religious bigotry, as well as to the other low blows that will be directed at Fred Thompson and Rudy Giuliani, not in announcing surrender to any or all of them."

When Geraghty responded, explaining he didn't endorse Mormon-bashing but that GOPers should be aware of what will happen if they choose Romney, Hewitt kept up his attack: "A commentary on a candidate's alleged vulnerabilities not coupled to a denunciation of the illegitimate attacks among those vulnerabilities is itself an attack on the candidate because it serves to mainstream the alleged shortcomings, especially the illegitimate ones."

Geraghty did not let Hewitt have the last word, blogging a lengthy rebuttal including: "Look. If Mitt Romney gets the Republican nomination, a good portion of the political discussion in the 2008 campaign is going to center around, "Are Mormons normal?" It's unfair, it stinks, and in a better world, it wouldn't happen. But the opposition is going to push every argument they can to paint this faith as too strange for a President, and a significant chunk of the conservative message effort is going to have to be dedicated to refuting that notion. And the more time spent debating Mormon theology is less time spent on arguments about why taxes should be low, why our policies on terrorism should be aggressive, why the border should be secure, why red tape hurts small businesses, why we should get pork out of the budget, etc."

Also talking about Mormonism, The Brody File apologized and clarified his earlier statement that: "According to fundamentalist evangelicals who read The Brody File, they say it's Jesus, nothing more. Mormons say it's Jesus plus something else. The difference between nothing more and something else is the hang up." Brody explains to his offended Mormon and evangelical readers what he meant: " Evangelicals believe the Bible is the ONLY word of God and that there will be no additions or subtractions. Mormons believe in the Bible AND the book of Mormon. That's what I meant. Evangelicals don't accept that. There's more differences but this is a big one."

More Brody on the impact of the issue: "A lot of Mitt Romney supporters complain that I bring up the Mormon issue too much. You know what? The reality is, for Evangelicals writing in to The Brody File, this is an important topic for them."

ROMNEY II: Can Buy Him Love

RedState's Erick Erickson is not pleased with reports from the Young Republicans "national hedonism convention" that the YR's altered their traditional straw voting rules to allow anyone attending 7/7's dinner to vote (as opposed to allowing only delegates to vote). Erickson titles his post, "The Romney Advantage: Who Needs Grassroots When You Can Afford Astroturf" and comments: "Several people remind me that this is kind of like what happened at the Cobb County GOP BBQ here in Georgia on the 4th. It is a huge annual event complete with straw poll. Romney volunteers loitered around the straw poll ballot table urging people to refrain from voting for Fred Thompson, who still came in first. Romney came in third, behind Ron Paul."

F. THOMPSON: The Virtual War Room

Fred Thompson continues to enjoy strong help from conservatives pushing back against MSM stories designed to sink his candidacy before it even launches. A Los Angeles Timesarticle asserting Thompson lobbied on behalf of abortion rights groups and a New York Timesarticle on his "trophy wife" drew the most fire. Reactions to the NYT piece include:

• Captain's Quarters: "I'm touched, really, by the concern that Susan Saulny and the Paper of Record show for "values voters", a group that normally received little but scorn and ridicule from Pinch's crew. However, these people are not likely to have an issue with a man who spent seventeen years between marriages before marrying a woman in her mid-30s. Thompson's ex-wife speaks well of him, his children seem very well-adjusted, and his current wife is an intelligent and well-spoken woman who will be an asset to his campaign."
• Evangelicals for Mitt: "You see, what concerns evangelicals like us is not what Mrs. Thompson or any other political spouse looks like. I for one am agnostic on the point--all I know is that Mrs. Mitchell is gorgeous. What we care about is whether candidates join us in affirming the sanctity of marriage and will seek to protect it in the office to which they want us to elect them. So, there you have it. The New York Times owes Mrs. Thompson an apology--and I better go see what Mrs. Mitchell's up to."
• Race 4 '08s Tommy Oliver: "I would like the New York Times to introduce me to the staunch Thompson supporters that are "wrestling," or dealing with Mrs. Thompson being an issue. I have yet to meet one."
• Townhall's Hugh Hewitt: "Note that the Times brands the topic a "less than palatable inquiry," but does not explains why that is the case before offering a defense that the vulgar topic is being discussed "in Internet chat rooms, on cable television and on talk radio." ... The article reminds us that one television host, Joe Scarborough, blundered into this territory and was rightly embarrassed to have done so, but commentators avoided that controversy because it was both an outlier on a low rated show and so very tacky."
• Power Line's John Hinderaker: "Funny, I haven't seen any discussion of this topic, and the Times doesn't identify a single TV show, talk radio program or chat room. I suppose, though, that every conceivable subject has been discussed in one internet chat room or another."

Reactions to the LAT article includes:

• NRO's Jim Geraghty: "It's significantly problematic that every person the Times quotes would appear to have incentive to take down Thompson, as he was a pro-life senator and all of these folks are not merely pro-choice, but professional lobbyists in support of that view. If one Republican or pro-life, or pro-Fred source had been quoted on the record, "Yes, Fred did this work and it was significant" then the charge would carry a lot more weight."
• RedState's Erick Erickson: "Here's the deal: Fred Thompson made one phone call for a friend on a matter pertaining to Haiti and felt compelled to register as a lobbyist. Here, the claim Fred was retained to help an abortion group and yet there is no registration paperwork, there are no logs at the White House on the matter, and the former President's Chief of Staff has no recollection of it. The only two people who do are two fringe lefties. Meanwhile, Thompson has a 100% pro-life rating while in the Senate and is an "enemy" according to Planned Parenthood."
• Captain's Quarters: "The only evidence of this work comes from a copy of the NFPRHA's board minutes from September 14, 1991 that claims that the group had hired "Fred Thompson, Esq. as counsel to aid us in discussions with the administration" to end the rule barring abortion counseling at clinics that received federal funds. ... Now a new bit of indirect evidence has been found. ... Anyone involved in such lobbying has to register with the Foreign Agent Registration Unit at the Department of Justice.Take a look at registrant #2661 in the FARA search system ... That gives some indication that Thompson started lobbying for Arent in October and not September of 1991."

F. THOMPSON II: Is That Where The GOP Money Is?

Right Wing NewsJohn Hawkins theorizes that part of the reason "the numbers so bad" for GOP money totals, is that donors are holding back in anticipation of Thompson's entrance. More Hawkins: "If articles about Fred's lobbyist sons and his alleged lobbying for a pro-choice organization back in 1991 are the best the anti-Fred people can come up with, then the cupboard is probably pretty bare."

Also talking Thompson and money, RedState's Erick Erickson introduces Part I of his phone interview with Thompson by noting that Thompson took in $400k 7/8 in Atlanta, GA, which Erickson claims is more money than either Barack Obama or Mitt Romney raised in the state in Q1.

IMPEACHMENT: All The Cool Kids Are Talking About It

At The Notion, Ari Melber reports that Pres. Bush'd Lewis Libby commutation and coming clash over congressional subpoenas have "put impeachment back on the table" for "influential Democratic activists." Melber cites MoveOn.org's "unprecedented petition calling on Congress to impeach Vice President Cheney if he defies congressional subpoenas" as well as The Nation reporting that "some members of Congress say it is now time to reconsider impeachment proceedings."

Talking Points Memo's Steve Benen notes that not only are pollsters are beginning to include impeachment questions on their surveys, but that sizeable numbers (Rasmussen 39%, ARG 45%, and InsiderAdvantage 39%) are in favor of it. Matthew Yglesias reasons: "insofar as Bush appears determined to use his constitutionally granted authority to shield his subordinates from the consequences of breaking the law, I would say that removing him from the office which grants that authority is something that should be discussed."

Benen agrees: "[T]here's no reason to dismiss the notion as some radical flight of fancy. Reasonable people, debating in good faith, can disagree about the utility, implications, and grounds for impeachment, but as Yglesias put it, the concept should probably enter the mainstream conversation."

At Daily Kos, where impeachment of Pres. Bush was always mainstream, Kagro X links to Charles Pierceruminations on Plamegate as the inevitable consequence of Iran/Contra and adds: "This is, by the way, part of the reason why I think Congressman Robert Wexler's move to censure Bush for the Libby pardon could be an enormous mistake."

THOUGHT OF THE DAY: Voters Moved

TAPPED's Sam Boyd flags a Joel Middleton and Donald Greenstudy on MoveOn.org's '04 GOTV canvassing operation. Boyd summarizes: "MoveOn organized its canvassing by precinct, so the paper compares turnout between voters living on one side of a street in a precinct that was canvassed and those living on the opposite side of the street in a precinct that was not canvassed. ... Overall, canvassing increased turnout by about 7 percent. The effect was constant across states, highly statistically significant, and, because of the study's design, hard to dispute. Apparently, previous literature tended to assume that GOTV was less effective in what they call "high salience" elections, but the 2004 election was about as high salience as it's possible for an election to be.

LEST WE FORGET: Al Gore Counted To Infinity ... Twice

In indirect tribute to Chuck Norris, a Daily Kos diarist has compiled his own list of "Al Gore Facts," including:

• Al Gore is the only man alive who can save us from Global Warming. Al Gore is that cool.
• After Al Gore is elected, Al Gore will turn back time and erase the last seven years.
• Al Gore will be the first President to win three terms since Roosevelt.
• Republicans want to build a wall on the border. To keep Al Gore out.
• When Al Gore falls in water, Al Gore doesn't get wet. Water gets Al Gore.
• Al Gore didn't just invent the internet. All Gore invented science. And fire.
• When Al Gore is elected, Al Qaeda will follow us home from Iraq. To surrender.

Posted by Conn Carroll at July 9, 2007 01:08 PM