July 03, 2007

7/3: Between Iraq And A Hard Place

Despite anemic fundraising totals and revelations of drastic staff cutbacks, cases for the eventual comeback of John McCain are still not hard to find . A quick look at the political landscape in light of the commutation of Scooter Libby's jail sentence, however, illustrates just how outlandish a McCain comeback scenario would have to be.

McCain has rededicated himself to being an insurgent candidate determined to take on the "shibboleths" of Washington, pinning his hopes on early wins in IA, NH, and SC. But what kind of 'maverick' story line can McCain possibly cultivate among GOP primary voters? TPM Cafe's Eric Kleefield points out that McCain still refuses to comment on the Libby commutation. If he endorses leniency for Libby, he gets only mild approval from GOP faithful while earning him condemnation from the MSM he heeds to rebuild his 'maveirck' brand. If he comes out against Libby's commutation, he just reminds GOPers yet again that domestically there is nothing the base and McCain agree on. The only issue McCain is strongly identified with is the war in Iraq (where he is now coincidently), and short of clear and dramatic positive results from the surge, its hard to imagine any scenario story where the GOP faithful flock back to his banner.

SCOOTER: Nothing Left To Lose ... Unless ...

Some of the netroots were more surprised than others, but all voiced strong objections to Pres. Bush's commutation of the jail portion of Scooter Libby's sentence. Many are upping pressure on Dems to call Libby to testify before Congress about all of the WH scandals he was involved in. There is also widespread support for beginning impeachment proceedings against Bush based on obstruction of justice grounds. Initial reactions include:

• Rep. Earl Blumenauer (D-OR) at Daily Kos: "It is time for the President and his Administration to stop covering up and stop misleading the American people and representatives in Congress. Instead, it is time to restore some openness and accountability in government, which belongs to all Americans, not just his selected few appointees."
• Atrios: "I'm going to be mad tomorrow. I'm going to be mad tomorrow that the elite media (except Keith [Olbermann]) won't point out that Bush's commutation of Scooter's sentence is essentially obstruction of justice. ... Mostly I'll be mad because I have yet to see a prominent Democrat put the phrase "obstruction of justice" out there in relation to this. So perhaps my anger at the media is misplaced.
• Talking Points Memo's Josh Marshall: "This is being treated in the press as splitting the difference, an elegant compromise. But it is the least justifiable approach. ... The only basis for this decision is that Libby is the vice president's friend, the vice president rules the president and this was the minimum necessary to keep the man silent."
• firedoglake's Jane Hamsher: "By commuting Libby's sentence rather than pardoning him, Bush insures that Scooter will remain silent and be able to invoke the fifth before before Congress and not risk being cited for contempt. This president's contempt for the rule of law is thorough and complete."
• firedoglake's Christy Hardin Smith: "This is a shameful, self-dealing action which will have long-term political ramifications for the Bush Administration. And it should."
• Working AssetsJustin Krebs: "I can only think of Janis Joplin's Me and Bobby McGee: 'Freedom's just another word for nothing left to lose.' ... Anyone who thought Bush would be humbled by a mid-term defeat, tanking approval ratings and the desertion of his own party, think again -- the man now has nothing left to lose...he's liable to do anything."
• The Left Coaster's Steve Soto: "The next time you hear a Republican bellow about the Rule of Law when it comes to illegal immigrants, think of their double standard when it comes to rich white Republicans."
• The Nation's Ari Melber: "Libby's special treatment is a microcosm of current U.S. policy. Libby is basically receiving a post-conviction protection that the Bush Administration now routinely extends to many potential criminals in the U.S. government. The administration successfully pushed legislation last year granting immunity to officials who might someday be prosecuted for war crimes or torture. It is a policy that embodies the administration's distinctly un-American view that powerful government officials should operate above the law."
• Matt Cooper at The Huffington Post: "If Bush had the courage of his convictions, he would have been like Jack Nicholson in a A Few Good Men and admitted that he thought Wilson was a jerk and that he believed what happened afterwards was right. Instead, Bush vowed to take action against the leakers. Now with Rove's security clearance renewed in the White House and Libby's sentence commuted, we know what he meant."
• Paul Begala at The Huffington Post: "Mr. Bush is tough enough to invade a country that was no risk to America, causing tens of thousands of civilian deaths and shedding precious American blood in the process. ... But if you're rich and right-wing and Republican, George is a real softie. As George W. Bush demonstrated in giving Scooter Libby a Get Out of Jail Free Card, he is only compassionate to conservatives.

Dem leadership and WH '08 condemnations of Libby commuted sentence are not satiating netroots desires to see Dems excercise their power to check the Bush Administration. Calls for further Congressional action include:

• firedoglake's TRex: "Dear Congressional Democrats Now that most of you have made your statements of dismay regarding the Scooter commutation, would it be too much to ask that you guys stop talking about taking this administration to the woodshed and actually do it?"
• Talk Left's Big Tent Democrat: "The man is the worst President in the history of the nation and this is merely confirmation of the contempt he holds for the law, the Constitution, and the American People. Will our Democratic representatives wake up and understand NOW that he will never end the war in Iraq -- that only a Congress that says no to funding the Debacle past a date certain can end the war?"
• more more's BTD: "I think the next step is obvious - he should be called to testify on the myriad of scandals that he was intimately involved with. Technically he can invoke the 5th Amendment, but either Fitzgerald or Congress can grant him immunity - heck, he ain't going to jail anyway. Let him testify about what Cheney has done, especially with regard to Valerie Plame.
• The Reality Based Community's Mark Kleiman: "At this point, there's no reason not to bring Libby in, immunize him, and start asking questions. His Congressional testimony wouldn't be relevant to his appeal. It might prevent a retrial should the DC Circuit reverse his conviction. So what?"
• Daily Kos' mcjoan: "More than issuing strong statements, it's time for Congress to investigate this commutation. Grant Libby immunity and find out everything that was behind the leak, behind the lies that took us to war and that started this whole case in the beginning, and behind this commutation."

So far impeachment talk has been relegated to the more activist blogs, but those making the case at Daily Kos include:

• PsiFighter37: "I've been against attempting impeachment of Bush, Dick Cheney, and the rest of the crew in the White House for the longest time. I even wrote a diary about it almost 7 months ago, arguing from the pragmatic (and probably still-true statement) that we simply didn't have the votes for impeachment. I don't care anymore. Today's heinous commutation for Scooter Libby was the last straw for me."
• wiscmass: "Scooter Libby obstructed justice. He was convicted. He is known to be a participant in either the outing of a covert agent of the CIA in a time of war (which is capital treason by definition, a death penalty offense), covering up for the people responsible for the outing, or both. ... I'm sick of being told "we don't have the votes" -- I get that. We didn't have the votes in 1974 either, but the Democrats voted to impeach anyway because justice and the Constitution demanded it. ... Contact your representatives and demand that they support House Resolution 333 right now -- it calls for the impeachment of Vice Felon-in-Chief Cheney.
• Meteor Blades: "Those who want Richard Bruce Cheney and/or George Walker Bush (and possibly other high officials) impeached by the House of Representatives and tried by the Senate should stop pounding on Nancy Pelosi and concentrate on convincing the 23 people pictured below. If impeachment is going to happen, these are the ones who must be persuaded to take action. ... Not Pelosi. She's made her position clear. Not Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid. These 23 folks. Every one of them a Democratic member of the House Judiciary Committee. Twenty-three who are essential to making impeachment happen. They can vote to hold impeachment hearings."

SCOOTER II: Make Them Pay

Many on the left are citing Survey USA numbers showing 60% of Americans "say the prison sentence should have been left in place" while 21% "agree with the commutation" and 17% "say Libby should have been pardoned entirely."

Matthew Yglesias links and comments: "I hope the Democrats are prepared to ignore the braindead crew at the WaPost editorial board and hang this around the necks of the Republican presidential contenders and congressional leaders. Hay should be made."

Blue Hampshire is already taking Yglesias advise penning an open letter to Sen. John Sununu (R-NH): "Now is your chance to step up to the plate and tell the people of New Hampshire where you stand on the fair and equitable administration of justice. Do you stand with the President and Vice President in giving Lewis "Scooter" Libby a better deal than Paris Hilton got? Do you believe that rewards should be granted for compromising National Security? Or do you believe that, like thousands of Americans are doing today, he should have been required to live with the judgment of a jury of his peers? We await your speedy answer."

SCOOTER III: They Started It

The preponderance of conservatives either approve of Bush's commutation of Scooter Libby's jail term, or wanted a full pardon. Minority voices against any leniency for Libby, however, were not hard to find. A favorite conservative talking point in defense of Bush's action: Dems get off easy too sometimes. Specific examples include:

• from Byron York at The Corner: "Amid the overflow of Democratic outrage on Capitol Hill, Republicans are sending around some examples of Bill Clinton's clemency - not the notorious Marc Rich case, but guys like this member of FALN, described in a 1999 press release from the Justice Department."
• from Kathryn Jean Lopez at The Corner: "[Sen. Chuck] Schumer [(D-NY)] called for clemency for Jonathan Pollard, convicted of spying on the United States. And his conditions for clemency? If three conditions are met: 'no danger is posed to society, real contrition is shown and the sentence is disproportionate to others who have committed similar crimes.'"
• from a K-Lo reader: "I don't pretend to know all the facts - but I do know this - Sandy Berger stole classified documents re: sensitive national security issues and received a $50K fine..."

York also reminds readers that Libby jury Ann Redington told Hardball 3/7 she didn't want Libby to go to jail.

Other positive reactions to the Bush's decision include:

• The Corner's John Podhoretz: "Libby was convicted of perjury and obstruction of justice - but even if you accept that these convictions were just, what Fitzgerald did not demonstrate was that any kind of harm was done."
• K-Lo: "I'll admit it. I've been diagnosed with Bush Estrangement Syndrome in recent weeks. I feel a little less estranged tonight."
• AmSpec Blog's Quin Hillyer: "While I would have preferred a full pardon, I applaud the president for commuting the prison sentence. The commutation took guts -- one virtue Mr. Bush has in abundance."
• AmSpec Blog's John Tabin: "Good for Bush. Libby was almost certainly guilty of at least some of what he was convicted for, but there's a good chance that he would have been convicted on fewer counts if Judge Walton had let the jury hear from a memory expert or see the Tim Russert clips that I mentioned near the end of this column. Under the circumstances, it makes perfect sense to reduce, but not eliminate, Libby's punishment."
• Power Line's John Hinderaker: "This strikes me as an excellent resolution. To my knowledge, it was first advocated by Paul's friend Bill Otis, a former federal prosecutor, in an op-ed in the Washington Post. The idea quickly gained support. I also think the President's commutation of Libby's sentence will go over well with the party's conservative base and will contribute, to some degree, to a restoration of Bush's standing with conservatives."

Dissents include:

• Volokh Conspiracy's Orin Kerr: "I find Bush's action very troubling because of the obvious special treatment Libby received. President Bush has set a remarkable record in the last 6+ years for essentially never exercising his powers to commute sentences or pardon those in jail. His handful of pardons have been almost all symbolic gestures involving cases decades old, sometimes for people who are long dead. Come to think of it, I don't know if Bush has ever actually used his powers to get one single person out of jail even one day early. If there are such cases, they are certainly few and far between. So Libby's treatment was very special indeed."
• Captain's Quarters: "Unfortunately, like Solomon, Bush will probably find neither side satisfied. Critics of the administration and Plame-conspiracy activists want a scalp, and thought they'd enjoy the sight of Libby walking into Club Fed for a spell. Conservatives who believed that the entire investigation was bogus from the start want Libby cleared altogether. ... If Bush wanted to take any action -- and I would have advised against it -- this is as far as he should go."
• Andrew Sullivan: "The bottom line is a simple one, regardless of its origins. Is Libby a perjurer or not? He is. And Bush has nullified the sentence. To please a political constituency. It is hard to think of an action more contemptuous of the rule of law - except for so many decisions made by this lawless president, acting as a monarch."

CLINTON: No Ra-Ra Sisterhood Here

IA's Bleeding Heartland was not impressed with Tom Harkin's email announcing his wife Ruth is endorsing Hillary Clinton: "Thanks a lot, Ruth. If Hillary loses the general to a Republican who puts two or three more Alitos on the Supreme Court, I hope you'll apologize to all women. ... Of the many things that bother me about the Hillary Clinton candidacy, one of the biggest is this idea that women are supposed to back her as a pathbreaker (with the corollary that people who don't back her are sexist or can't handle strong women). Hillary would be a weak general election candidate, and I don't even think she would be the best president out of the current field."

EDWARDS: A League Of His Own

MyDD's Todd Beeton hits back against analysis from MSM blogs including Top of The Ticket, First Read, and The Note, that "the sheer breadth of the gap between the money raised by [John] Edwards and the top two candidates necessitates his demotion from the top tier."

Beeton responds: "But this conveniently ignores two alternate metrics by which the media could have chosen to measure the health of Edwards's campaign. ... First, there's the individual donor primary. While much has been made of Obama's 250,000+ individual donors, little is said of Edwards's passing the 100,000 mark. ... Edwards can also credibly claim to be in the top tier in terms of electability. ... Edwards consistently outperforms Clinton and Obama against the top tier Republican candidates."

OBAMA: They Know Howard Dean, And You Sir ...

Netroots veterans of Howard Dean's '04 run are pushing back against Barack Obamacampaign claims that Obama 250k donors proves he is a stronger grass roots candidate than Dean was. MyDD's Jerome Armstrong has a lengthy examination of the claim, concluding: "The comparison, as far as the numbers go, shows that Obama has set new records for this point in the campaign, but the campaigns are drastically different in origination." Armstrong argues

• Obama has had the advantage of having mainstream media coverage that has been very widespread and positive. It's really only in the liberal blogosphere and on liberal websites, that you see any tough analysis of Obama's candidacy at all. That's something that doesn't compare with Howard Dean, which seemed the exact opposite.
• Dean depended on the internet and small donors; Obama got 70 percent of his 1Q money from $1,000 and up donors. It's on the strength of having such a high-donor base that Obama nearly broke the record that Bush set during the second quarter of 2003, when Bush took in over $35 million.
• One of the things I noticed during the 1Q, is how a relatively small part of Obama's 1Q raised came from the internet. In the 1Q this cycle, is that Obama raised $6.9 million (out of $26 million) over the internet; just above Edwards, who raised $3.3 million (out of $14 million) over the net. In comparison, Dean, who raised about $50M overall for his campaign, had $25M of it come directly over the internet.
• It's not the internet, but instead it's Obama's strategy of having paid events has been the boon needed to skyrocket his donor numbers. I've not seen a story on the phenomenon that he's created, but the paid venues have got to have provided Obama with tens of thousands of donors to add to his overall numbers. It's the speaking-venue donors (similar to a rock concert), not internet donors, that's leveraged the donor numbers for Obama; and alongside the astounding high-donor numbers that have sky-rocketed his total raised, it's combined to create a compelling narrative that gives a strategic advantage to Obama.

Also questioning what Obama's numbers really mean, David Sirota writes at Working Assets:

Barack Obama has very little experience, and, in my honest opinion, has yet to take either many strong, power-challenging positions on key issues, or really tell us what a Barack Obama presidency would be all about (beyond buzzwords like "hope" and "change"). ... I wonder if underneath the genuinely positive and awesome feat of attracting that many new investors in the political process there is a sad commentary on what has become of America's political culture? Is the key to engaging people really just about being a media celebrity who positions himself as a blank slate of nebulous "hope?" ... Bottom line here - Good on you, Barack, for engaging so many new people. It's a truly impressive accomplishment. Now, what does it all mean for the long-haul?

OBAMA II: iBama

Also trying to understand the Obamanom, TAPPED's Ezra Klein links to Chris Hayes' novel comparison:

Why are the chattering classes seeming to tire of Obama as the momentum for him among the grassroots continues to build? Well, I think it's because Obama is like the iPhone. The last thing as hyped as the iPhone was Barack Obama: the ceaseless press, covers of magazines, etc. And the arc of that hype was predictable, after that initial burst, the people who cover politics for a living developed a bit of Obama-fatigure, and they started looking for flaws, or talking about his performances as being underwhelming.

But I think Obama is like the iPhone in a few other ways as well. The iPhone is both an absolutely amazing, breakthrough device and the product of an insane amount of hype and the machinations of celebrity culture. So is Barack: he is both supremely talented and inspiring and the beneficiary of the cult of celebrity. It's the latter, however, that I think is largely responsible for his amazing performance among small donors. ... It's an identity statement, and a desire to be a part of something. When you pay that money, you become part of the Obama Phenomenon. That's what people are buying. Do you think the folks who stood on line on Friday to buy an iPhone were standing online to purchase a piece of consumer electronics? No, they were doing it to be a part of something. Those of us who shelled out the money, likewise were purchasing some small part of the hype and fame-some minor morsel of celebrity for ourselves.

Klein adds: "Fundraising is all about the selling of politics. Generally, that's done by selling votes, support, access, legislation. Obama is showing that there are other products generated by politics and rewarded by voters: Inspiration, hope, belonging. As readers know, I'm a cynic about such appeals, but I'm sure glad my countrymen aren't."

MCCAIN: What Was Your Favorite Moment Of The McCain Era?

NY Sun's Ryan Sager lead the league in coverage of John McCain's 7/2 conference call to discuss hi Q2 fundraising totals including a liveblog of the call and a transcript. Later Sager wrapped up:

The whole thing was a brutal, brutal affair, with Mr. McCain's two top guys - Terry Nelson and John Weaver - sounding just about ready to slit their wrists. ... Mr. McCain has now committed his campaign to an utterly wrongheaded strategy to win the nomination: the early-state strategy. ... So, to recap: 1) We have Iowa, where Mr. McCain has dropped out of the straw poll and badly trails Mitt Romney, Rudy Giuliani, and maybe even Fred Thompson, 2) We have New Hampshire, where he's tied for second with Mr. Giuliani, behind Mr. Romney, 3) And we have South Carolina, where Mr. McCain used to lead - but now, because of Mr. Thompson's entry into the race and because of the immigration debate, Mr. McCain could be as low as fourth place. ... Even if Mr. McCain eeked out a win in one of these states, he's utterly unprepared to run in Florida and on February 5. And the compressed primary schedule means there won't be much time to springboard an early win into big fundraising and national TV advertising.

Other reax to the McCain numbers include:

• The Corner's Byron York: "John McCain's top staffers have just finished a conference call with reporters to discuss McCain's latest financial report. It was a pretty unhappy affair. The staff is laying people off, while others are taking pay cuts, and at least one - campaign manager Terry Nelson - will be working without pay."
• The Corner's Ramesh Ponnuru: "InTrade now has a market speculating on whether McCain will drop out by the end of the year. It may need to move up the timeline. "
• Townhall's Patrick Ruffini: "Friends, this campaign is officially over. There is no way we are going to nominate someone who has to take public funding to take on Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama ($90M COH between them)."
• Michelle Malkin: "Low on cash. Bleeding staff. Swirling rumors of an imminent end. Shamnesty was the final nail in the coffin. So, what will the exact expiration date of the McCain '08 campaign be?
• SC's Daily Shot: "I think overall the McCain Campaign now has no chance of capturing the nomination. I've said from the beginning of this year that any campaign wanting to be on the Republican ticket will have to raise at least $100 million. Twenty-three states will be holding primaries on February 5, 2008, and any campaign that wants a shot at winning to nomination will have to put a great deal of money in at least some of those states."
• AmSpec Blog's Philip Klein: "The conference call that just concluded represented a campaign coming to terms with the dire position they find themselves in. It is quite a turn of events. Held up for years by the media as the inevitable nominee (something that was always bogus), McCain is now forced to run like the insurgent candidate he was in 2000."
• NRO's Jim Geraghty on McCain camp spin that Reagan also faced tough times in '80: "Yup, sometimes troubles are a sign you're the next Reagan 1980... and sometimes it means you're the next Dean 2004, or Lieberman 2004, or Steve Forbes 2000, or Phil Gramm 1996, or Bob Dole 1996, or Bob Kerrey 1992, or Gary Hart 1988, or Bob Dole 1988..."

ROMNEY: Boggieless Nights

The Brody File reports that "some anti-pornography groups" have Mitt Romney in their sites for his involvement with the Marriott Hotels' Board of Directors during the '90s. Citizens for Community Values' Phil Burress wants to know why Romney did not do more to stop the pay-per-view sex videos offered through in-room entertainment in many of Marriott's properties.

Still facing questions about Mormonism, The Brody File reports that "a key official inside his campaign tells me that it's looking more and more likely that he will have to give a major speech addressing his faith." More Brody: "The campaign believes they can overcome this. They don't believe it's a major hurdle. Rather, since so much focus will continue to be on his faith, they figure they better address it sooner or later. As for the timing, who knows."

Moving away from cultural issues, AmSpec Blog's Philip Klein flags a New York Times articles on the individual mandates at the heart of Romney's MA health care plan and comments: "It is hard to imagine anything representing a greater affront to conservative principles than using government to coerce private citizens into purchasing healthcare. ... Even if you are more sympathetic to Romney than I am, I challenge you to read this and ask yourself whether you believe it is consistent with limited government principles."

THOUGHT OF THE DAY: Blowback

The Huffington Post's Suzanne Nossel looks at the incoming French foreign minister Bernard Kouchner, incoming British foreign minister David Miliband, and incoming British minister for Africa, Asia, and the United Nations Mark Malloch Brown and writes:

One of the most improbable and unintended legacies of the Bush administration is an emerging generation of European foreign policy leaders that is more progressive than any in decades. They were chosen by new heads of state eager to move beyond the polarizing politics of the U.S. invasion and occupation of Iraq. These top diplomats now have the potential to reshape European foreign policy in ways that will reverberate back to Washington.

While all three have criticized unilateralism and militarism, they also advocate an activist foreign policy. Some liberals in the United States fear that the Iraq war has given a bad name to policies aimed at promoting democracy and human rights. They worry that the U.S. will turn inward and others will shun from a tainted mantle of liberal global leadership. ... Theirs is a values-driven internationalism that is as energetic as Bush's, but more collaborative and diplomatic. If successful, these officials could highlight effective ways to promote democracy and the rule of law in the Middle East--and thus restore general credibility to those goals. ... Whether they prove deft enough to bridge the political chasms and build momentum for more vigorous European global leadership remains to be seen.

LEST WE FORGET: Failing To Out Carbon The Anti-Carbonites

Tim Blair is not impressed with call from "he world's most indulgent people - rock stars" asking fans to take the Live Earth pledge to "take personal action to help solve the climate crises by reducing my own C02 pollution as much as I can." Blair blogs:

Has Live Earth performer Keith Urban sold his Bentleys yet? (Actually, merely selling those 12-cylinder babies won't reduce C02 emissions; he must destroy them.) I've been trying to come up with a violently destructive Gaia-raping stunt for us to participate in on Live Earth day, but it is literally impossible for even several thousand non-millionaires to match Live Earth's own level of eco-vandalism while remaining within their means and the law. ... We've been out-carboned by Big Environmentalism. There's simply no way we can come close to matching the colossal carbon output of Gore and his musical mates.

Posted by Conn Carroll at July 3, 2007 12:44 PM