July 24, 2007

7/24: Killing Them Softly

Unlike CNN, we did not conduct a post-debate focus group, but we did spend an inordinate amount of time in Daily Kos and MyDD debate comment threads and we can confidently say that Hillary Clinton was, again, the consensus winner of 7/23 CNN/YouTube debate. As favorability straw polls conducted by DailyKos' founder Markos Moulitsas demonstrate, HRC is by far the netroots' least favorite of the big three. Yet somehow after every single one of HRC's debate performances so far, the Daily Kos comments boards read like Clinton campaign press releases.

The strengths that the debates highlight (the depth of her knowledge on the issues, her willingness to take command of the forum, and calm of her presence) all reinforce the campaign line on why she is a better choice than Barack Obama and John Edwards: she is ready to lead now. If Edwards and Obama are losing ground among the only demogrpahics predisposed not to like HRC, what hope do they have with the rest of the electorate?

DEM DEBATE: Joementum's Back!!!

Outside of what has now become an expected dominant performance by Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden was the surprise winner of 7/23's YouTube debate. Open Left's Chris Bowers links to Survey USA numbers showing Biden's favorability ratio jumped 38 points among debate viewers. Bowers is slightly dismissive of the reasons behind Biden's newfound popularity, noting that among the "mini-focus" he watched the debate with his "friends all gasped" when they heard Biden mention his wife and daughter "were killed during the early days of his Senate career."

Chris Dodd once again ran his Talk Clock tracking speaking times for each candidate. Barack Obama led the league with 15:11 of air time (HRC had 12:26 and John Edwards had 10:30). Bill Richardson's 9:18 led among the also ran's with Mike Gravel's 4:10 bringing up the rear. Atrios links and makes the case for more time for the little guys: "I appreciate that polls/fundraising are going to impact which candidates generally get the most coverage, but I also think that there's no reason for such things to be reinforced by time given to candidates during debates. At least this early it seems like a good time for the media to highlight "lesser" candidates. Perhaps later they can be weeded out based on some objective criteria."

CLINTON: A Woman Among Boys

Hillary Clinton was the consensus, but not unanimous, winner among independent bloggers, and again won many converts among the Barack Obama and John Edwards favored Daily Kos crowd. First, some representative dKos takes:

• Have to Admit: Hillary I'm an Obama supporter (with Gore in my heart), but holy crap is Hillary good at this. She's a fracking pro, I don't know how anyone could watch this and say otherwise.
• She's been the best in every debate to date. I'm an Obama guy, too, but I have to admit Hillary is a danged good candidate and the "pick of the litter".
• I'm surprised by Hillary. I'm much more impressed by her than I expected.
• I was never a fan of Hillary. Edwards has been my candidate so far. But Hillary is beginning to impress me a lot. She's good, she's loosening up, and she's beginning to kick ass, and not just in debates. I have a growing feeling that she's the only one who can really take the fight up to the rethugs and all their dirty tricks.
• Hillary never misses an chance to take the lead. EVER.
• I think she's closed the sale with me. I have a Gore '08 sticker on my car, but I've about given up on my hopes that he'll run. And now I'm starting to get excited by Hillary. She will pummel whoever the Republicans nominate in the debates.
• I Want to Vote for Sen. Clinton Right Now! Actually, everyone is showing pretty well. Proud to be a Dem.

Other reactions include:

• Matthew Yglesias: "Hillary Clinton is the front runner. She didn't stumble at all, she hit a few high points, and since nobody tried to tear her down, nobody succeeded in tearing her down. Under the circumstances, it's a clear win for her."
• MyDD's Todd Beeton: "Clinton once again gets points for projecting strength and decisiveness without saying "I'm strong and decisive" as well as for her ability to elicit emotional reactions with her responses."
• Andrew Sullivan: "Her response to the dynastic question - a difficult one - was the first time she has ever brought a smile to my lips. She's so much better a debater and performer than she used to be. You know how much I hate to say this: but she destroyed the opposition tonight: out-classing it, out-debating it, and avoiding the usual pitfalls. I wish it weren't so, but it's what I saw. If she keeps this up, it's hers."
• The Plank's Michael Crowley: "But the one who stood out was Hillary. She shows really impressive poise and confidence, and didn't lose her stride even in the face of offbeat questions about her gender and voter fatigue with the Clinton and Bush families."
• AMERICAblog's John Aravosis: "Hillary was damn good. She's perfected the art of looking presidential. I think they all did well tonight, but I'm not sure anyone shook things up enough to change the rankings."
• The Huffington Post's Howard Fine: What will win votes is the overall appearance- whether, in short, the candidate appears presidential. Hillary was extraordinary in this regard.

EDWARDS: Doesn't Translate Well

John Edwards scored points on health care, but stumbled badly on gay marriage, and ultimately changed few minds. Daily Kos reactions include:

• Edwards cleft palate story. Actually heard this at his speech this past weekend at the YDA convention in Dallas. Didn't translate as well here in debate format. I'm telling you, when he gives it on the stump, it's powerful, powerful stuff.
• I hate to say I was disappointed in Edwards tonight. He did not handle the gay marriage question well at all. He stumbled about supporting civil marriage for gays with some line that he struggles with issue but he won't let his religious beliefs interfere with his duties as president. ... My partner and I watched and our jaws dropped during his response.
• He was good overall. Hillary was spectacular. But JRE won it, and he won it on healthcare.
• It was actually about the "die in vain" question, but he got it. He called out people for complaining about the Iraqi government for going on vacation without also calling out Bush for going on vacation in Crawford at the same time while our troops die.

Non-Kossack Edwards thoughts include:

• The Huffington Post's John Neffinger: "Edwards did not show us anything we have not seen before. He is emotive and smart and engaged, but did not show us the gravitas of a commander in chief on the security issues.
• MyDD's Todd Beeton: "Edwards was strong but I didn't see much I haven't seen before."
• Andrew Sullivan: "It still frustrates. They still won't actually answer the simple question: Why do you oppose equal marriage rights? I'm sorry but I'm not interested in John Edwards' "personal journey". In fact, I'm extremely uninterested. I want to know what his argument is. He disavows the religious rationale but offers no other. If it's the "ick" factor, let us know. If you can't justify that, then live up to your own convictions. Obama was just as evasive."
• Digby: "I personally thought the best answer of the night went to Edwards, who gave a much better performance tonight than he has in earlier debates. His answer to the health care question was passionate and heartfelt and he made a better case for the need for universal health care in his anecdote than any of the others did. He seemed to me to be deeply engaged."
• TAPPED's Dana Goldstein: "Saddest moment? Edwards saying he was personally against gay marriage because of his Southern Baptist faith. I can't presume to know how Edwards truly feels about marriage equality, but either he has a moral view I deeply disagree with, or he's pandering to an extent with which I'm uncomfortable."

OBAMA: Rookie Of The Year

After Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden, Barack Obama received the most nods for winner of the evening. The clear theme running through Obama related comments: he's getting better at this. Those scoring the night for Obama include:

• TAPPED's Dana Goldstein: "But from what I've seen so far, a highlight was Obama saying he'd meet in person with the leaders of Iran, South Korea, and Syria within the first year of his administration."
• MyDD's Todd Beeton: "As for a winner, I think Obama gets points for most improved performance, as he finally seems to be translating his rock star rally appeal to the more intimate and time constrained debate format; his answers were quick, forceful and substantive."
• TAPPED's Garance Franke-Ruta: "Barack Obama owned this debate. He started off with a series of clear, crisp answers that deftly turned questions to his advantage, and he was doing that Obama thing that he does where he manages to look luminous and transcendent, as if he just stepped out of a Wordsworth poem, trailing clouds of glory."
• The Huffington Post's John Neffinger: "Obama is looking more relaxed than he has in the previous debates. He's speaking fluidly, and off the cuff. He looks on top of his game. He's calm and collected tonight. ... Obama did not recapture the magic that brought him here tonight, but he definitely helped his cause."

Daily Kos reactions include:

• I dont understand. Why there's so much distaste for Obama. He's my top pick so far. Perfect mix of idealism and pragmatism if you ask me.
• I like that he seems to look at things with fresh eyes and to take a fresh approach to things. But he does seem to lack a certain depth. I'm thinking especially of his answer about nuclear technology, but I saw it in other answers too.
• Obama: GREAT answer on the minimum wage. because he is finally starting to loosen up and be himself.
• Obama started out so good on Social Security. He knows what it is: "a floor beneath none us can sink." But Barack, honey, there's nothing wrong with Social Security. It's solvent as hell. We don't need a "bipartisan solution" for a problem that doesn't exist.
• Obama is right, political reform is necessary. Obama has made this a central theme of his campaign. We won't have sustained progressive change without political reform. We can make all the progressive policy proposals in the world and we won't have anything but a few short-term victories if the corporate lobbyists still own the debate.Reform is necessary.
• Not impressed by Obama. I like him but he's not ready for prime time.
• Obama did really step it up. I thought he started putting flesh on his "change" skeleton. Time after time he discussed the corporate takeover of government. The change he's bringing is restoring power to the people.

BIDEN: Why Shouldn't We Like Joe Biden?

Usually not a place known for Joe Biden love,many Daily Kos commenters were impressed with Biden, including:

• Biden, on the other hand, impressed me this time. I think he broke out a bit tonight.
• Biden at least gives the impression. Of know what he's talking about when he discusses the logistics of withdrawal. How far he's right, I dunno.
• Tell me again why I shouldn't like Biden?Ok, ok... so yes, he's from Delaware. YES I know he is D-MBNA. YES, he can be very "animated" and a bit of a camera hog... but none of those things are total disqualifiers for me. He's smart. He knows what he's talking about. He's got a strong defense background, he's experienced... So why shouldn't I like him?
• I'm an Obama guy. but I give the debate to Biden tonight. There was a real emotional power behind several of his answers that I found moving.
• The highlight was the automatic weapon guy. Jered Townsend, brandishing an automatic weapon, asked the candidates' position on gun control. Sen. Joe Biden responded 'that guy needs help. I hope he doesn't come looking for me!"

DEM FIELD: Best Of The Rest

Daily Kos reactions to the rest of the candidates includes:

• Chris Dodd: "Dodd has a kid in kindergarten? Oy, veh--how old is he?"
• Mike Gravel: "Gravel took the train, then the bus then he walked in the snow...up-hill...both ways!!!
• Dennis Kucinich: ""Text peace" and Dennis will release the unicorns and rainbows and give you a free pootie."
• Bill Richardson: "SCRAP No child left behind. Nice answer, he now seems to be answering based on what he believes and feels, not on what he had written down on a piece of paper. Good answer! Minimum wage for all teachers, emphasize science, and math."

DEM FIELD II: Still John's Domain

DailyKos' founder Markos Moulitsas conducted the 7/07 Daily Kos straw poll pre-deabte 7/23. John Edwards fell 3 points, Barack Obama gained 4, and Hillary Clinton gained 3 from 6/07's results. The top five vote getters include:

John Edwards 37%
Barack Obama 26%
Hillary Clinton 9%
Other 7%
No Clue 5%

Kos also tried a new question, this time asking for favorability numbers on the top four Daily Kos straw poll vote getters. In order of popularity: Edwards (79% fav/13% unfav/7% und); Obama (70% fav/12% unfav/17% und); Bill Richardson (51% fav/22% unfav/26% und); Hillary Clinton (38% fav/43% unfav/17% und).

DODD: Be Prepared

Anticipating that Chris Dodd would not get as much speeking time as the big three, Dodd filmed answers to the four questions listed as favorites on Community Counts. Crooks and Liars Nicole Belle rounds up all four videos including: On impeachment of GW Bush; What about the non religious voters?; Presidential Debate Question - Fuel Problem; What will YOU do to protect independent voices in the media?

GOP FIELD: Lamest Duck Ever

Talking with conservatives at an American Spectator lunch 7/23, Newt Gingrich painted a bleak picture for the GOP should they fail to distance themselves as far away from Pres. Bush as possible. NRO's Jim Geraghty quotes Gingrich, "If, by this time next year, we're still in the Bush era, we lose." Geraghty adds: "Newt said that if the country is still in the 'Bush era' - meaning that the GOP nominee does not represent a break from Bush's policies - and somehow the Republicans win anyway, "we will be in a shambles." Perhaps surprisingly, Gingrich said the wisest thing President Bush could do on the Iraq debate is 'be quiet.' He recommended Bush let Gen. Petreus and Ambassador Crocker go to Capitol Hill and deal with the Democrats."

BROWNBACK: The Wicked Warlock Of East Kansas

Tracking Sam Brownback attacks on Mitt Romney over the Boy Scouts and MA's Commission on Gay and Lesbian Youth The Brody File comments: "Quite frankly, I've laid off these stories in the past. But once the Brownback campaign brought them up, it's fair game. It's gone to another level. You had to figure that sooner or later all of this was going to be used by a rival campaign. Brownback's campaign makes the most sense. He is stuck in the second tier and must do well in the Iowa straw poll."

Later Brody shares reader reaction to the Brownback/Romney feud:

• "Does this issue matter? In my hometown, I know a woman who is on the local Scout council and is also a member of Romney's church. I heard her tell her father that this is the issue that makes her the most upset with Romney, her fellow Mormon, and she will not vote for him in the GOP primary."
• "All we hear from Brownback press releases is his attacks on Romney. As a third tier candidate without traction, what is Brownback still doing in the race? Is he the designated hit man for one of the top tier candidates? Is he angling for a VP position? Is his remaining goal in this campaign to bring down Romney? His energy would be better spent attacking Democrats."
• "Is it me, or does Brownback spend more time criticizing Romney than he does talking about his own political beliefs? It seems to me that the only resonating message Brownback has been able to convey is that he can't stand Romney. I wish Brownback would focus his efforts more on his own campaign and less on trying to tear the down the Romney campaign."

GINGRICH: Spider Pygmie, Spider Pygmie, It Does What Ever I Spider Pygmie Does

More than a few conservatives in attendance at The American Spectator's 7/23 lunch with Newt Gingrich left with the impression Gingrich was leaning toward entering the race. NRO's Jim Geraghty blogs: "I wouldn't say it's certain that Newt Gingrich is running for president, but he certainly sounds like a guy inclined to run."

Gingrich wowed the audience with his prescriptions for current GOP malaise, but his attacks on those currently in the field did ruffle some feathers. On Gingrich's genius, AmSpec's David Hogberg blogs: "Gingrich's analysis of the problems with the GOP is one of the best I've heard. No two ways about it. Newt is brilliant. Unfortunately, Newt knows he is brilliant. As a result, he has little control over his ego. If Newt were to run for President, all of his deficiencies as a leader would surely come to the fore again, and the media would have a field day chewing him up. Given how bleak things look right now, the GOP hardly needs the drag that would be the Newt for President campaign."

Also at AmSpec, Jennifer Rubin argues that in or out, Gingrich does have a future in the GOP: "I leave it to others to speculate as to whether Newt will join the race. Either way, he stands to play a key and perhaps decisive role in determining the nominee. If he chooses not to run but to endorse another candidate it could be one of the few endorsements that really matters since it offers the prospect of Newt playing a role in the endorsee's administration. If, on the other hand, he chooses to run he can shape the debates and the race even if he can't win it."

Duncan Hunter aide John Hawkins at Right Wing News, however, was less than pleased by Gingrich's description of the current GOP field as "a pathetic bunch of pygmies." Hawkins responds: "what does it say about Newt that he would be in a distant 5th place amongst the "pygmies" if he got into the race today? ... ne of these guys, not Newt, is going to be the Republican nominee. ... What we don't need is Newt Gingrich standing around, with his nose in the air, telling everyone that the people we're choosing from stink, primarily because they're not him."

Power Line's Paul Mirengoff argues that, maybe, the pygmie line was not directed at the other candidates: "The reference to pygmies may or may not have encompassed the current Republican field, but certainly meant the folks who participate in the process of sorting out the field, such as Chris Matthews to whom Gingrich referred several times."

HUCKABEE: Paging Mike Gerson

At BeliefNet, David Kuo shares the following email from "a conservative Christian friend who works in Washington" touting Mike Huckabee: "If you are like me, you are pretty dissatisfied with the current so-called "frontrunners" in the upcoming Presidential election. But there is one candidate that is quietly getting more attention and support that provides the kind of leadership that our country so desperately needs. And that's former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee. ... He's a true conservative, but doesn't let himself be defined by divisive conservative issues. Though he is as pro-life as anybody, he often remarks that life does not end at birth and that we have a responsibility to take care of people throughout their whole lives - the children, the poor, and the elderly. And he's not afraid to talk about the typical "liberal" issues like the environment, education, and even poverty."

Andrew Sullivan links and comments under the header 'Bush's Successor': "It's Mike Huckabee: a big spending, Wilsonian, Christianist interventionist. I wonder why Mike Gerson isn't writing his speeches."

ROMNEY: Mitt's Ears Hurt

Watching the Dem debate The Corner's Kathryn Jean Lopez remarks: "Is it a good sign for Mitt Romney that his name came up multiple times? One assumes they didn't bring up Mike Huckabee for a reason (sorry, Guv)."

THOUGHT OF THE DAY: Demography Is Destiny

Responding to Cenk Uygur claims that progressive blogs are leading indicators in American politics, Open Left's Chris Bowers looks more closely at blogosphere demographics and Hillary Clinton's relative weak support in the medium and concludes that progressive bloggers are less influential in presidential politics than Uygur suggests. Bowers looks at Pew data and writes: "Virtually every demographic group where Clinton underperforms relative to her national standing also happens to be a demographic group that is over-represented in the progressive blogosphere." Bowers lists:

• Clinton does worse, and is basically tied with Obama, among self-identified liberals than she does among self-identified moderates or conservatives. The progressive blogosphere is teeming with self-identified liberals.
• Clinton does worse, and is basically tied, with Obama, among men. The progressive blogosphere is something like 65% male.
• The younger voters become, the worse Clinton seems to do. While the progressive blogosphere is certainly not young, with an average age of 46, it is younger than the Democratic primary electorate as a whole. Again, this means one would expect Clinton to not perform as well in the progressive blogosphere as she does nationally.
• Clinton is losing to Obama among Democrats with a college degree. Well, 80% of the progressive blogosphere has a college degree, and nearly half have post-graduate degrees.
• Clinton is losing to Obama among Democrats who make more than $100K a year, and barely ahead among Democrats who make $75K-$99K. With a Median annual income of about $80K, once again the progressive blogosphere matches a demographic where Clinton uderperforms.
• Clinton is getting annihilated among seculars. While this is a less explored area of progressive blogosphere demographics, every indication I have seen is that seculars make up an enormous percentage of the blogosphere-possibly as high as 45-50%.

LEST WE FORGET: If Only ...

Cracked.com identifies the "6 Movie Formulas That Must Be Stopped" including:

• Young, Hip, (Read: Black) Guy Invades Typically White World. Who Did It Best: Trading Places. Who Did It Worst: We're calling this one early for Who's Your Caddy? Why It Needs To Stop: If we wanted to see a fast-talking black guy infiltrate a world that still thinks black people will eventually just disappear, we'd watch Trading Places. If we wanted to watch that same exact premise but throw in a rapper or two, we'd watch How High. If we wanted a movie with the same black-meets-white premise, plus rappers and golf, we'd watch The Legend of Bagger Vance.
• Father Is Wronged by Gang; Kills Entire Planet. Who Did It Best: It was a tough call between Man on Fire and Death Wish, but we're giving it to the latter for it's slightly more totally insane approach. Who Did It Worst: Surprisingly enough, Death Wish III. Why It Needs To Stop: Two weeks after Death Sentence disappoints you at the box office, Jodie Foster comes out with The Brave One, the story of a woman who, you guessed it, sets out on a revenge-focused murder buffet after her husband is killed. Two movies. Two weeks. One plot. Oh, except this time it's a woman. So it's different.
• Put Robin Williams in a Comedy, Sit Back and Let Him Work His Magic. Who Did It Best: Death to Smoochy. Who Did It Worst: Our toughest call on this entire list. ...There are just so many awful movies. Why It Needs To Stop: We're at a total loss for the best Robin Williams comedy. Mrs. Doubtfire, maybe? He threw a piece of fruit at Pierce Brosnan. That's gotta stand for something, right? Aladdin gets points because we don't ever actually have to see Williams once, though the same five or six impressions he's been doing his entire career are everywhere. Without a standout winner, it is reasonable to conclude, then, that this formula has never once worked, which is astounding considering it's been used for close to thirty years and shows no signs of stopping.

Posted by Conn Carroll at July 24, 2007 12:51 PM