July 10, 2007

7/10: Winning The Enemy Primary

The Los Angeles Times may not be a great foe to have in a general election, but when you are trying to establish yourself as a credible conservative frontrunner, there are few better enemies to have. For the second timein less than a week the LAT is whacking Fred Thompson with a thinly sourced article attacking Thompson's conservative credentials, and again, no conservatives not officially signed up with a rival campaign are buying. As AmSpec Blog's Philip Klein points out, these efforts only "rally conservatives" to Thompson's cause. If Thompson keeps his primary fights confined to Michael Moore and the LAT, he'll cruise to victory.

GIULIANI: YouTube Has A Terms Of Use Policy For A Reason

A YouTube featuring an anonymous driver making fun of Mormons who "assume the missionary position" for two years after high school and describing Mitt Romney and Fred Thompson as an "attractive gay couple" is circulating conservative inboxes. The Corner's Kathryn Jean Lopez comments: "The Giuliani campaign should really make known that it wants that YouTube guy to stop making it look like he's doing an official (albeit amateurish) ad for their campaign (He advertises Rudy's website at the end). Picking on a candidate's religion and another's wife isn't what you want associated with your campaign."

ROMNEY: Aw Shucks, Mitt

The Brody File admits Mitt Romney's Mormonism and flip-flop reputation have hurt, but then explains why Romney continues to gain ground among social conservatives: "Why? Because let's do a quick check of the other candidates. Is there one top-tier candidate that is consistently and pro-actively talking about the culture war in this country? Go down the list. Not one of them is doing it. ... you can also make the case that he's the most "pro-family" candidate out there. He even has the "perfect family" thing going. I feel like every time I see them I start to whistle the "Leave it to Beaver" theme song."

Brody then links to video of Romney talking family values at the Young Republicans 7/8 conference and Race 4 '08s Jason Bonham links and remarks: "Romney really is the only candidate that will argue for all three legs of the stool- not just economy and defense. He is the only one arguing for a platform that includes Strong Economy, Strong Defense and Strong Families. Like it or not, families are the backbone of our society."

Also batting for Romney, Townhall's Hugh Hewitt hits back against "an interesting strategy from the MSM eager for a long campaign" signaling out a Politicostory playing down the importance of the IA caucus. Hewitt blogs: "Expect more 'Iowa doesn't matter as much as it used to under the old calender' talk from every candidate who sees Iowa as a lost cause ... no matter all the spin, Iowa is a key test of the ability to organize and win in a purple state crucial to '08. The GOPers skipping Ames made one mistake. Underestimating the importance of the January caucuses would be a second huge mistake. You can't win a nomination by losing elections."

THOMPSON: Bury This Story At Wounded Times Reputation

Conservatives pushing back against the LA Times 7/7 hit job claiming Fred Thompson lobbied for abortion rights groups believe they have the LAT on the run. NRO's Jim Geraghty notes that National Family Planning and Reproductive Health Assn pres. Judith DeSarno's recollection that she specifically remembered Thompson reenacting a "cowboy death scene" from one of his movies has been removed from the current version of the LAT story after it was pointed out that Thompson had not acted in a cowboy movie till "Bury My Heart at Wounded Knee" this year. Also chipping in, Race 4 '08s Tommy Oliver links to then-WH CoS John Sununu's denial of the LA Times claims and comments: "pretty harsh words from Sununu leveled at the LAT, and the group making these accusations."

The Brody File confirms that the Times assertions are gaining zero traction among social conservatives, quoting Family Research Council pres. Tony Perkins: "From what I've heard people are not biting on the story. They consider the source as well as the modus operandi, someone steps forward who is pro-life and is appealing to conservatives and he is attacked for being pro-abortion in an effort to drive a wedge between him and the base." AmSpec Blog's Philip Klein explains the actual impact of the Times story: "a huge coup for Thompson by rallying conservatives on his behalf against the mainstream media."

Thompson himself picks up on that exact message in Part II of his interview with RedState's Erick Ericksonhere . Thompson also defends the decision to remove Saddam Hussein, adding: "we must do everything possible to win the war."

DEM FIELD: It's Almost As If Iraq Will Be A Major Issue In '08

Open Left's Chris Bowers finds it "very difficult to have a useful debate over Iraq ... without comparing not only the specific missions the different candidates would have American troops carry out in Iraq if elected, but also reasonable estimate for how many troops those missions would require. Information like this is crucial both to understanding the differences between Democratic candidates on Iraq, and also to an informed electorate that understands our different options when it comes to Iraq."

More Bowers: "Anyway, one of my first, long-term campaigns on Open Left will be to try and find the necessary information to clear up this matter. ... Almost every day, it seems more and more likely that we will in fact win the White House next year, and so we better start understanding what a Democratic administration would do when it comes to the defining issue of this decade: Iraq. This is one issue where we can't afford to be surprised."

DEM FIELD II: Progressive Is The New Black

Explaining "it is an untenable situation for those on the left and center-left in America to have one political party self-identify as conservative, as they other to self-identify as either 'moderate' or simply 'big tent', Open Left's Chris Bowers tracks each WH '08er website to see who most often self identifies as 'progressive.' Results include:

• John Edwards: 3,480 times. While Edwards' website sports, by far, the most mentions of the word "progressive" of any candidate, it should be noted that most of those mentions come from the Edwards team opening up the campaign website to far more user generated content than any other campaign. In other words, in most cases the term was used not by the campaign, but by a supporter crating content on the website.
• Dennis Kucinich: 379 times.
• Hillary Clinton: 97 times. Many reading this might be surprised to find out that Hillary Clinton uses the term "progressive" much more often than Barack Obama, at least on their respective websites.
• Barack Obama: 17 times. This is surprised me, since I have heard Obama refer to himself as a progressive in multiple speeches, including at Take Back America. However, for one reason or another, the word does not show up on his website very often.
• Chris Dodd: 17 times.
• Bill Richardson: 8 times.

CLINTON: We Love The '90s

MyDD's Todd Beeton takes on 7/8 David Brooks claims that Barack Obama is the clear candidate for 'change' while Hillary Clinton represents politics as usual: "The flaw in his argument is that change doesn't necessarily have to mean something new, it just needs to mean something different from what we currently have. In fact Hillary's new campaign slogan seems to tap into this idea: STRENGTH + EXPERIENCE = CHANGE."

More Beeton: "It's not Washington people hate, rather it's what Washington has become under George W Bush; it seems to me people desperately long to return to a time when Washington worked, as they feel it did during the 90s."

EDWARDS: We Interrupt This Presidential Campaign To Bring You An Important Message

Taylor Marsh sat in a David Bonior conference call promoting John Edwards "Road To One America" tour that traces "the steps of Dr. King's 1968 Poor People's March that started in Marks, Mississippi, as well as R.F.K.'s 1968 200-mile poverty tour that ended in Southeastern Kentucky." Marsh explains: "The goal is to raise awareness of poverty in America, as well as to offer solutions (raise the minimum wage higher and encourage unions), while challenging the press and politicians, especially his '08 rivals, to pay attention to the issue of poverty in America, which hits 1 in 8 Americans."

MyDD's Todd Beeton also sat in on the call and adds: "Bonior made a point to note that none of the stops on the tour would be in an early primary state nor would any of the events throughout the tour be for the purpose of fundraising. ... It'll be interesting to see if they can manage to cover the tour without mentioning haircuts or hedgefunds."

Not talking poverty, Science BlogsBora Zivkovic talked environment with Edwards including what he would do to "persuade the Congress, the private sector and the American people" to choose "quality of life over raw wealth" when tackling "the complex issue of climate change." Edwards responded in part:

I believe America has to lead the way in dealing with the crisis of climate change and global warming. We are four percent of the world's population, but we emit as much as 25 percent of the world's greenhouse gases. We have no credibility with the rest of the world on this issue right now. We're the worst polluter on the planet. America needs to lead by example. ... Here's what's really important to understand: we can actually turn the crisis of global warming into an opportunity. We can create a new, clean energy economy that creates 1 million new jobs, ends our dependence on foreign oil, and brings rural communities back to life. And ultimately, we can become a leader for the rest of the world.

OBAMA: There's Beef In This Beefcake

One MyDD commentator and Barack Obama supporter wants supporters of other candidates to stop labeling Obama supporters "worshippers." She explains: "The gist of this idea is that because Obama is a charismatic and captivating politician (some might say "rock star"), then his supporters are drawn not to the issues he stands for, but to his star power. I've seen comments that say Obama supporters are blind followers of a media creation." She then moves on to defend Obama supporters:

I realize that some supporters of other candidates feel victimized (Edwards people because of the haircut thing, Clinton people because of the blogosphere's hostility towards her), and may use this forum to give Obama supporters a taste of what they feel they have to go through. ... But what I don't appreciate is the idea that because Obama is a uniquely exciting politician, or because he has a "rock star" quality, then his supporters are shallow or uninformed. The two - charisma and substance - are not mutually exclusive. Liberals always harken back to the days of JFK and RFK - those two were the biggest rock stars politics has ever seen, and we revere them. ... Just because what Obama's saying is exciting or dynamic doesn't mean it has no merit. Indeed, we should be happy that his message is reaching a lot of people who wouldn't otherwise care.

IRAQ: Iraq 4-Evah

TPM Cafe's Spencer Ackerman penned the go to netroots guide for amendments to the upcoming Senate DoD authorization bill. Highlights include:

• The Webb Troop-Readiness Amendment: Webb thinks that highlighting the stress that the increased operational tempo puts on the troops is the most favorable way for Democrats to frame the issue, even if GOPers accuse him of trying to get out of Iraq through the back door of deployment scheduling. ... Watch for what Webb's fellow Virginia senator, defense lion John Warner -- who's uncommitted as to whether he'll seek reelection next year -- says about Webb's bill as a barometer of GOP defection.
• The Levin-Reed Timeline: The big enchilada: getting out of Iraq by a date certain. Many Senate Dems clearly think that the public has coalesced around withdrawal, and even in defeat, they'll get the opportunity to distinguish themselves from Bush and the GOP going into 2008 while hanging the war around their opponent's necks as an albatross.
• The Feingold Funding Cutoff: [I]t will have the likely effect of making Levin-Reed seem like a moderate approach by comparison, and perhaps bolster support for that approach.
• The Clinton Deauthorization: On its own merits, the plan would make Bush spell out the remaining missions for the U.S. in Iraq. ... The gamble is that the more specific Bush gets about the mission, the less able he'll be to retain support for it, either from the congressional GOP or the broader public.
• The Return to the Iraq Study Group: Quite possibly the best option for the GOP to argue that it's winding down the war without repudiating it, because it would allow GOP senators to back away from combat operations in Iraq without committing themselves to withdrawal. While Democrats wouldn't get withdrawal from Salazar-Domenici, they would be able to claim that they successfully won over many Republicans

Whatever netroots support Sen. Jim Webb (D-VA) lost with his votes against the Dem compromise timelines last time around, he is rapidly gaining back with the sponsorship of his "troop-readiness" approach this time around. Positive reax include:

• Daily Kos' mcjoan: "The Webb amendment is the first marker of the "tough" talk by would-be Bush defectors. So Smith, Snowe, Collins, Domenici, Lugar, what are you going to do? Are you going to support the troops by correcting our troop-rotation policy? Are you going to break with the President when it really counts, or continue to rubberstamp his war?"
• Bob Geiger: "[N]o amendment will be more important than the legislation by Senator Jim Webb (D-VA).
• Open Left's Chris Bowers: "This is a good piece of legislation, and I certainly hope it passes."

Some in the community still favor Reid-Feingold since "closing the purse strings is the one sure-fire way" to end the war, but Arianna Huffington reports that Barack Obama is supporting the Levin-Reed timeline. Either way, all are united in opposition to the "Salazar Distraction" which "doesn't provide any obstacles to their continued Iraq debacle, but it's a way for a lot of spineless Senators to say they "stood up to Bush" on Iraq."

Bowers does pluck one worrisome nugget from Sen. Maj. Leader Harry Reid's (D-NV) press conference introducing Webb's amendment. Reid told reporters: "Feingold-Reid called for American troops to remain in Iraq to do counter-terrorsim to protect our assets in Iraq. To train the Iraqis. There are estimates that that would still leave tens of thousands of troops to stay in Iraq. No one is calling for precipitous withdrawal in Iraq. No one."

Bowers responds: "Wow. This is a remarkable admission, and one that virtually every Democratic politician has avoided like the plague. ... After all, Democrats don't exactly want to go around boasting that they will keep "tens of thousands" of troops in Iraq after claiming for nearly a year that we will end the war once in power."

IRAQ II: It's Almost As If They Don't Trust Bush Anymore

Conflicting reports in conservative circles about the veracity of NY Times reporting on internal WH deliberations on continuing the surge dominated discussion 7/9. The Corner's Rich Lowryconfirmed with at least three sources that the piece was at minimum "exaggerated" while Townhall's Dean Barnett picked up on William Kristol's confirmation that "there are real discussions going on at the White House."

Lowry later urges Bush to "get out with a real forceful statement tomorrow saying he's not caving on Iraq, because part of the political problem he has with Republicans on the Hill is that they remember the Rumsfeld experience-being out front defending a guy that Bush dumped the day after the election. Townhall's Hugh Hewitt then advises GOP Senators: "I don't think there is a more suicidal political strategy than to tell the GOP base you are shifting to Harry Reid's side of the debate and refusing to give General Petraeus even the chance to succeed and report on the success before cutting the legs out from under him and the troops he commands. ... The NRSC is already reeling as long time donors return their envelopes with "not one more dime" scrawled across the request for support. The immigration bill debate was one giant self-inflicted wound, and now the rush to embrace Harry Reid's defeat agenda is another."

VA SEN: Just In Case?

VA Progressive has FEC filings that they believe prove Rep. Tom Davis (R-VA) will run to replace Sen. John Warner (R-VA) in '08. Davis paid CampaignSolutions $258 to register the domains TomDavisforSenate.com, TomDavisforSenate.org, and DavisforSenate.org.

BLOGGERS VS. BELTWAY: Enter Stage Left

The Nation's Ari Melber pens a lengthy introduction for Open Left, the new effort by "two giants of the liberal" (former MyDD front pagers Chris Bowers and Matt Stoller) and "a longtime Washington consultant" (Mike Lux). Bowers explains the venture at MyDD:

What can you expect on Open Left? Well, overall, we are dedicated to building a sustainable, progressive governing majority, not just a Democratic one. In some ways we are quite familiar, in that you know our names and in that we run on Soapblox. In other ways, we are an experiment, trying to bring progressive activists and professionals from "inside" and "outside" the political establishment into regular, thoughtful, and active connection with one another.

The new venture has been mostly warmly received by the community including initial well wishes from Digby, Jane Hamsher, and David Sirota. But as with all new projects there are some grumblings. MyDD's Jerome Armstrong blogs: "OpenLeft gives the Open Diss to MyDD by not including this website in their blogroll, but I'm glad that Chris was able to come on MyDD to tout the launch. ... I tire of all this "movement" language altogether; besides, move over, we are all beached; Obama owns the movement now." Jack and Jill PoliticsJill Tubman also has some blogroll criticism: "The OpenLeft blogroll leaves off orgs like the Urban League, CORE, Southern Christian Leadership Conference, King Center, National Council of La Raza and others that seem to stand still when we need them to strike. I don't see any blogs linked that focus on religion and progressives though I believe Chris that Open Left is a work in progress. It's off to a good start."

THOUGHT OF THE DAY: Elections Matter

TAPPED's Sam Boyd flags the following Cass Sunsteinruminations :

Imagine that by 2030, Justices Antonin Scalia and Clarence Thomas have both resigned, and their successors are much more liberal than anyone serving now on the Court--far to the left of the Court's supposed liberal wing. The new justices believe that the death penalty is always unconstitutional. They argue that the Constitution creates a right to education and very possibly to welfare and housing as well. They think that affirmative action programs are fine, even if they operate as rigid quota systems. They are not merely committed to a right to choose abortion; they say that the Constitution requires government to fund abortions for poor women, even when those abortions are not medically necessary.

Does this Supreme Court of 2030 seem utterly fantastic and unimaginable--a conservative's worst nightmare, a liberal's wildest dream? If so, think again. The court just described is no fantasy. In essence, it is the Supreme Court of 1980. That court consisted of Chief Justice Warren Burger and Justices Thurgood Marshall, William Brennan, Harry Blackmun, Lewis Powell, Byron White, Stevens, Potter Stewart, and William Rehnquist (once known as the Lone Ranger).

Boyd comments: "Sunstein's thought experiment reminds us that the Supreme Court changes a lot faster and a lot more than we give it credit for and that we shouldn't expect the court a few decades from now to play by the rules it obeys today."

LEST WE FORGET: We Summarize What Crazy People Say So That The Hopelessly Out Of Touch Sound Less Crazy

Dilbert Blog tells readers "I've often said I have only one special skill. I can look at complicated situations and pluck out the thing that matters. That's the secret to good writing and good comics. ... Your assignment for today is to describe your own job in one sentence, preferably in a humorously derogatory way."

• I'm high school graduate. My latest assignment involved convincing a university that I am worthy enough to pay them lots and lots of money.
• I'm a management consultant. I'll tell you what I do if you pay me a million dollars, supply me with data about what I do, and assign to my command a team of your company's top people who will analyze the data and put it into PowerPoint.
• My job is to remain invisible. When I do my job perfectly, I am invisible. Nothing happens. Servers don't crash. Services don't fail. Users are not affected. The only time anyone in the whole company knows my name is when something stops working. Then they suddenly discover that not only do they know my name, but that they can scream it.

Posted by Conn Carroll at July 10, 2007 12:40 PM