6/7: An Issue For Fred

Fred Thompson has made no secret of his intention to run a non-traditional, more online based campaign and his recent hiring of Bush Cheney '04 eDirector Mike Turk and New Media Strategies demonstrate a strong commitment to that strategy. But if Thompson is going to capture a Howard Dean/netroots-like magic to keep him afloat while he skips traditional campaign events, he will need to ride an issue like Dean rode Iraq. The best candidate: immigration. One of the netroots' biggest frustrations in the run-up to the Iraq war, was Dem leadership willingness to dismiss them as "dirty f***ing hippies" (to borrow one of Atrios favorite phrases). Similarly, conservative anger over the current immigration debate is in no small part fueled by WH and John McCain willingness to portray them as "racist yahoos" (to borrow a Jonah Goldberg phrase).

Also like Iraq, conservatives simply don't believe what their leaders are saying about the issue. The WH repeatedly claims the Senate bill is a "once in a lifetime chance" to end illegal immigration, but conservatives point out that the CBO estimates that even if the bill's enforcement provisions are fully implemented (a big if) illegal immigration will decrease only 25%. Just like those in the netroots never believed Iraqis would welcome US troops with flowers, conservatives don't believe Karl Rove claims that the hundreds of thousands of guest workers allowed in through the bill, will go home (or be deported) when their visas expires. Will Thompson run with this issue to tap into growing conservative online energy?

IA CAUCUS: The Incredibly Shrinking Candidate

Conservative consensus seems to be Rudy Giuliani's decision to skip the Ames, IA, straw poll is a necessary tactical decision, while John McCain's similar announcement is just another sign his campaign is destined for the dust bin:

• The Corner's Rich Lowry: "Looks like the McCain people are taking advantage of the opportunity to make a Romney victory in the Straw Poll meaningless. Very interesting. Ultimately has to help Romney's cause in Iowa, no?"
• Townhall's Hugh Hewitt: "You don't win nominations by not winning contests -- whether key straw polls, caucuses or primaries. ... Would you give money to Senator McCain right now?"
• Townhall's Patrick Ruffini: "We had been led to believe that despite the McCain campaign's public woes, internally they were solid as a rock and they had a stellar organization could go toe to toe with Romney. Now, the once prohibitive frontrunner is (at best) on pace with Giuliani in the money and organization game, and fares somewhat worse than that in the polls. ... Are we seeing an Incredible Shrinking Campaign?"
• Race 4 '08s Jason: "I think we just saw superior ground game, great endorsements, strategic fundraising, rising poll numbers and the best candidate all collide in perfect storm."
• IA Voice: "I'm going to go out on a limb here and say that I think the real reason these guys are skipping the straw poll is because they know they will lose it. ... McCain is just using Giuliani's backing out as an excuse, but he's doing it for the exact same reason."

Those minimizing McCain's decision include Townhall's Matt Lewis ("Rudy and McCain had nothing to gain -- and everything to lose -- by participating. And now, the fact that neither Rudy or McCain will participate, means that winning is irrelevant.") and AmSpec Blog's Philip Klein: "If [Fred] Thompson skips too, then three of the frontrunners will not be participating, removing a lot of the significance of the event. The question now is how much Romney will benefit from his near certain victory in Ames.").

HUCKABEE: Aren't They Working Already?

RedState's Rob Bluey reports on a 6/6 Mike Huckabee blogger conference call: "I asked about immigration and whether Huckabee thought the Senate bill should be fixed or just killed. Huckabee said he's very much in favor of trying to work on it to make it better. ... He cited his concern that the bill would reward illegal aliens with legal status first, rather than making them work toward it."

MCCAIN: Church Pillager

SC's Daily Chaser asks, "What you can get for $42,000 in S.C?" asserting that what is John McCain has spent so far on their "Christian outreach consultant" who has put together a team of "five activists who have little notoriety and even less political experience." DC comments: "Personally I think the 5250 BBQ dinners will garner more votes than this 'Christian outreach team.' But who knows they might be really good at pillaging church directories."

ROMNEY: Simple Exposure

Conservatives couldn't get enough of pro-Mitt Romney Fox News clips 6/6. The most posted was Frank Luntz telling Fox that Romney faired the best in his post-debate focus groups. Townhall's Dean Barnett blogs: "When the voters get to see Mitt Romney, they like what they see. That's why he's doing so well in Iowa and New Hampshire where the voters have seen so much more of him than other parts of the country have. Luntz's research also buttresses what I was saying earlier today. Literally every time Romney enters one of these forums, he wins just because of the increased exposure."

Power Line's Paul Mirengoff adds: "While pundits and bloggers "score" the presidential debates, Frank Luntz brings in focus groups, consisting of two to three dozen likely primary voters, and assesses their reaction. ... Edwards and Romney are the two major candidates who court with the least amount of nuance the anti-war left and traditional conservatives, respectively. Maybe it's just that simple."

Also posting Fox clips, RedState's Alexham posts Romney "emphasizing in a simplistic, but profound way, the importance of social conservatism in the Republican Party's belief system." Alexham adds: "See, we do have nice things to say about Romney here at RedState."

The Christian Broadcasting Networks The Brody File shares "an email that's circulating among the grassroots" defending Romney from Sam Brownback attacks on Romney for not calling abortion murder. The email from Heartbeat Int's Dir. Nathan Burd reads in part: "Because post-abortion trauma is so common, we really have to be careful about throwing out the terms 'murder', 'homicide', etc. Judgmental, emotional pro-lifers who don't think through the entire issue seem to miss the fact that the words they use can be a dagger in the heart of a woman who regrets her decision to abort."

And from the left, The Plank's Michael Crowley counts: "Number of times in last night's debate that Mitt Romney uttered the word "future": 5. Number of usages by the other GOP candidates combined: 0."

F. THOMPSON: You Choo- Choo- Choose Me

The Hotline's Shira Toeplitz's look at the burgeoning online Fred Thompson was widely linked to. Toeplitz reports Bush Cheney '04 eDirector Mike Turk will be the 'chief architect' of Thompson's online operation and that New Media Strategies will perform "Web 2.0 outreach and online intelligence" for the campaign. Ex-Mitch McConnell New Media Advisor John Henke will work on the Thompson account for NMS.

Henke blogs at his pre-Senate home Q&O: "I do not choose to support Fred Thompson because of the job; I've chosen the job because of Fred Thompson." Outside the Beltway's James Joyner hopes: "The Henke hire is a good one, presuming they'll actually listen to him. ... Mitch McConnell did plenty of blog outreach through Henke, they mostly used him as a press flack sending out far too many emails against his own judgment." Robert Bluey adds: "The Henke hire is a major coup for New Media Strategies, which wanted someone of Henke's stature to manage Thompson's online operation."

Early reports from Thompson's first official online presence, ImWithFred, appear positive. Townhall's Patrick Ruffini reports more than $220K has been raised since 6/5 and comments: "We'll see what traffic measuring services like Alexa say in a day or so, but this has to be considered a powerful shot across the bow."

DEM FIELD: Potential Fulfilled

The Huffington Post's Roy Sekoff reports "sources close to both" Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama confirm "the Obama campaign will surpass the Clinton campaign in second quarter fundraising." From an Obama fundraiser: "It's a matter of pure mathematics. We had 104,000 donors in the first quarter; Clinton had 60,000. And while 75 percent of Hillary's contributors had maxed out, only 50 percent of ours had. So we had had a lot more potential to grow -- and we did."

On the spending end, MyDD's Chris Bowers examines candidate expenditures at Open Secrets and notes:

• Obama spent the most in all of these categories, except for salaries / benefits, where Edwards leads, and polling, where Biden stunningly leads.
• Obama's expenditures on Internet media are five times more than the rest of the field combined. Dodd is actually in second place in that category.
• Edwards and Obama are spending a ton of money on travel. I'm not really sure what that means, except that they might be travelling with large groups
• Clearly, the numerous, large campaign events for Clinton and Obama don't come cheap.
• The staff and office supply gaps between Clinton, Obama / Edwards and Dodd / Biden / Richardson show a real problem for second tier candidates. They just don't have the same size of operation to manage a campaign.
• What's up with Biden's massive fundraising and polling expenditures? It is funny how much money he has spent on those aspects of a campaign, with spending only $2,600 on actual campaign events. Not exactly a grassroots campaign.

EDWARDS: Which One's Felix?

A John Edwards video featuring Joe Trippi and Jonathan Prince trying to "raise some dough" in kitchen (they're trying to bake a pie for John Edwards birthday) is circulating among the netroots. TPM Cafe's Greg Sargent blogs: "The lighthearted vid is at bottom an unorthodox fundraising pitch. And whatever its effectiveness, which certainly isn't assured, it's in keeping with the Edwards campaign's promise to try and use YouTube in novel political ways, something that reflects the influence of Trippi, who of course pioneered Howard Dean's Internet-driven campaign in 2004."

IA's Bleeding Heartland adds: "I watched the video, which was amusing. I'm not sure how many people who You Tube are old enough to recognize the "Odd Couple" music in the background, but the video is unusual enough to stand out among the usual candidate bio material."

IMMIGRATION: Sometimes, The Ads Just Write Themselves

The defeat of Sen. John Cornyn's (R-TX) amendment which Michelle Malkin says "would have established a permanent bar for gang members, terrorists, and other criminals looking to snag a shamnesty visa" is the main focus of conservative outrage heading into the imminent cloture vote. Reactions include:

• Power Line's John Hinderaker: "My understanding is that most observers considered Cornyn's challenge to the compromise to be the most likely to derail it. ... Meanwhile, Rasmussen reports that public support for the compromise package is slipping. Currently, only 23% support the bill, with 50% opposed. When given the alternatives of enacting the present bill and doing nothing, 49% prefer to do nothing, compared to 32% who favor passage of McCain-Kennedy.
• Ankle Biting Pundit's Bull Dog Pundit: "We all know that Senator McCain has demonstrated what little regard he has for our 1st Amendment free speech rights. Today proved he has very little regard for the rule of law as well. ... You have now just left the door open for felons and other illegals who have even less respect for our laws than the normal illegal alien, to gain citizenship."
• SC's Daily Chaser: "While it would seem like common sense to prevent these criminals from gaining permanent legal status, the amendment was defeated by a vote of 51-46. Ten Republicans voted against the measure that was introduced in order"to establish a permanent bar for gang members, terrorists, and other criminals." The most notable party defectors on this amendment were Sen. John McCain and Sen. Lindsey Graham, who chose to side with Sen. Ted Kennedy.
• RedState's Erick Erickson: "Look folks, I'm to the left of a great many of you on immigration. I have leaned toward support of this legislation. But it is blocking amendments like this and showing no willingness to fix the Z-visa issue that keep me from supporting the immigration reform effort. I do not support the "send them all home and build a Great Wall of America" position that many of my friends have. But I must join them in opposition to this legislation."

At The Huffington PostMorton Halperin explains why the left is sticking behind the bill: "Don't Let the Perfect Be the Enemy of the Good on Immigration ... The most important reason is that from the moment the bill is signed, most undocumented workers in the United States will be safe from deportation and able to work legally. They will be on a path to legalization and citizenship which is far too long and too costly, but nevertheless, it will permit most undocumented workers to eventually gain citizenship and bring in close family relatives."

PROSECUTOR PURGE: Turning This Investigation 360 Degrees

Talking Points Memo's Josh Marshall followed up on claims from ex-interim Kansas City U.S. atty/current DoJ atty Bradley Schlozman's 6/5 claim before the Senate Jud Cmte that DoJ Election Crime Branch Dir. Craig Donsanto authorized him to issue vote fraud indictments weeks before 11/06 contrary to DoJ guidelines. TPM talked to fired NM atty David Iglesias who says Donsanto would not authorize similar indictments for him and that: "I can't believe that he'd have gone 180 degrees on that policy. I just don't believe it."

TPM's Marshall comments: "It's not an idle point. Given Schlozman's record of supporting efforts to suppress minority voter turnout, purge non-Republicans from key jobs in the Civil Rights Division and other infamies, it looks very much like he timed the indictments to drop just before the 2006 election to provide Missouri Republicans with a cudgel to use against then-candidate now-Senator Claire McCaskill."

Also, Think Progress is promoting a Monica Goodling email directing a colleague to draft a directive giving her authority to hire and fire political staffers and to "send [it] directly up to me, outside the system."

TERROR POLITICS: Eviscerating The Constitution Isn't A Bad Thing?

The netroots and Andrew Sullivan are promoting Sens. Pat Leahy (D-VT) and Arlen Specter (R-PA) Habeas Corpus Restoration Act which Daily Kos' mcjoan says, "restores habeas rights to foreign nationals who are detained as enemy combatants or who are awaiting determination of their combatant status. It's a critical piece of legislation to undo the most egregious wrong of the Military Commissions Act."

Alliance for Justice's Kelly Landis announces a partnership with MyDD and Hart Research Associates to work on a poll identifying the best language to "figure out what arguments are the right arguments and how we can best persuade people that eviscerating the Constitution is not the way to protect American interests." Landis asks: "In the comments section, let us know what questions you think we should be asking, what you think about wording them and which message points we should be testing."

Andrew Sullivan adds: "If you care about American liberty, there is no greater cause right now. Do your bit by calling or emailing your Senators and representatives."

THOUGHT OF THE DAY: No Wonder Dems Do So Much Better On Facebook

Arguing that "online social networking as it currently exists is largely a waste of time," The Huffington Post's Nick Antosca makes the case for "A Facebook.com-like 'social networking' site designed with the primary purpose of facilitating casual sexual encounters among educated young people." Antosca explains:

Sex is the unstated goal of many daily interactions. Some people might consider such interactions crass, but that's irrational -- an attitude rooted in moral inhibitions and the idea that people shouldn't want sex, especially casual sex. Such interactions are inefficient, however. Intelligent people waste time in conversations about topics in which they have no interest and make plans for time-consuming activities they'd otherwise avoid. A well-designed, widely used "sexual networking" site, facilitating real-life sexual encounters, could make the lives of its users easier and happier.

By allowing large numbers of intelligent young people to conveniently arrange sexual encounters without spending unnecessary time suffering through painful dinners, a web portal of this nature could benefit society. Satisfied people -- more fulfilled, less ashamed. To many, the idea of a sexual Facebook may at first seem distasteful -- sordid -- but such a view does not arise from reason. Such a site, if created and promoted with skill, would result in increased pleasure, diminished frustration, and more leisure time. This is a good idea for planet Earth.

LEST WE FORGET: 2-to-1 Odds The Blogometer Will Have A Beer At Happy Hour Tonight

The Corner's Jonah Goldberg pokes fun at an AP story reporting Newt Gingrich "gives himself 4-to-1 odds against running for president." Goldberg News Service Writer Ima Couch reports:

WASHINGTON (AP) - National Review Online editor-at-large Jonah Goldberg gives himself 7-to-1 odds against having a turkey sandwich for lunch, an assessment that conflicts with his recent pronouncements about how excited he is to have "leftover turkey in the fridge."

Goldberg outlined his decision-making process to GNS: After looking around the icebox he will decide whether it's worth having a sandwich with mustard instead or going to the store for more mayonnaise. If he does go with the mustard, he says he'll need a really good cheese to offset it. "Maybe if we still have some of that Jarslburg," Goldberg mused as he stood by the refrigerator with the door open. "Look, I really like pizza too. I can have turkey tomorrow." He said he will talk about his decision process later this afternoon while watching TV on the couch.