June 06, 2007

6/6: Lightning Round

With an assist from, literally, an act of god, Rudy Giuliani established himself as the clear blogger fave coming out of 6/5's NH debate. Giuliani was direct on the Iraq war while Mitt Romneydodged , and he all but told John McCainto go read his own immigration bill . But Giuliani's best moment came while answering a question on abortion, normally a sticking point between Giuliani and conservatives. Interference with his microphone from a lightning storm provided an opportunity for levity that Giuliani seized on, much to the liking of usually suspect social conservatives. With Fred Thompson's "Hannity & Colmes" counter programming efforts being largely panned, Thompson just might have to enter the arena next time if he hopes to continue to chip away at Giuliani's lead.

GOP DEBATE: Been There, Done That

Many conservatives made fun of MSM surprise at the strong anti-Pres. Bush sentiment that ran through the 6/5 debate. Michelle Malkin: "I see that the Bush Derangement Syndrome victims at the Associated Press are trying to frame the debate as some sort of newfangled bash-Bush-fest with "startling criticism" of the president. Newsflash: There wasn't any substantive criticism of Bush tonight on the war and immigration that hadn't already been aired in the past two debates--or the last six months, for that matter." Townhall's Mary Katharine Ham adds: "Puzzle and puzzle 'til your puzzler is sore, guys."

Also with candidate unspecific reactions:

• The Corner's Michael Graham: "As A Graduate of Oral Roberts University I can say with confidence that all this Jesus talk will kill the GOP if they aren't careful. America elects Episcopalians, not Evangelicals. The more people tune in these debates and hear 'abortion, creation, etc', the more typical suburbanites wonder 'Who the heck ARE these people?'"
• Andrew Sullivan: "It's fascinating to watch the GOP candidates try and walk back from Christanism. But they're in too deep. Since the Rove strategy, the GOP has appealed on explicitly religious grounds to Biblical literalists. In fact, they sometimes defend public policy - like opposition to civil marriage for gay couples - on Biblical grounds. If they have cited Genesis, it's fair to ask if they literally believe in it. They all dodged it."
• Hit and Run's David Weigel: "Romney and Rudy agree: Let's launch a major national project, paid for with tax cuts and a kissing booth, to solve the energy crisis. I guess everyone misses the Carter presidency."
• Michelle Malkin: "Bottom line: No knock-out punches, no fireworks. None of the candidates have changed their mind on anything since the last debate. And they probably didn't change any viewers' minds about them tonight."
• more from Graham at The Corner: "The advantage of watching the debate in a room full of Republicans, as I'm doing right now, is you get to watch and listen to them. The conversation about Iraq barely got their attention. As soon as the debate moved to immigration, the crowd immediately moved forward in their chairs. Every single pro-enforcement statement inspires immediate applause."

In mulitmedia offerings, Hot Air has select video highlights from throughout the evening and The Brody File posts video of campaign hacks in the spin room.

DEBATE GIULIANI: The Freevangelical

The near unanimous appraisals that Rudy Giuliani bested the field include:

• Townhall's Mary Katharine Ham: "Let's face it. Debates are composed of moments. And, Rudy is momentous."
• NY Sun's Ryan Sager: "Rudy Giuliani won that debate hands down. ... Whether it was Iraq, immigration, health care, or whatever, he just sounded so much more relaxed and in command of the situation than the other candidates that it was ridiculous."
• AmSpec Blog's Philip Klein: "Though he didn't have as defining a moment as his smack down of Ron Paul in the last debate, he still turned in the best performance of the evening."
• Ankle Biting Pundit's Bull Dog Pundit: "Among the Top 3 candidates I thought Giuliani did the best. I liked his strategy of attacking the Democrats and sort of 'going over the head' of the other candidates and especially the press."
• Captain's Quarters: "Giuliani performed the best. He took advantage of a recurring technical glitch to demonstrate his sense of humor, and he gave great answers on national-security questions."
• Power Line's John Hinderaker: "Rudy Giuliani stepped forward in a way that he hasn't until now. His performance was terrific."

Specific moments that helped Rudy include:

• The Corner's Michael Graham: "Rudy does it in one sentence. It's unimaginable that you'd leave Saddam in power while fighting a war on terror. That's the argument the GOP should embrace, seize and use to beat Hillary's campaign into a coma."
• The Corner's John Derbyshire: "Jumps right into health insurance issue. Clear, concise. He's looking really good tonight. He's engaged, at last."
• The Corner's Kathryn Jean Lopez: "Rudy Wins Points for telling McCain he is wrong about the details of McCain's bill, while standing next to him."
• The Corner's Rich Lowry: "Rudy's a Freevangelical. He keeps coming back again and again to freedom-spreading it overseas, believing in it here at home."
• Townhall's Matt Lewis: "Rudy's "lighting" moment will be the most played clip of the night. I think the humor of the whole thing helps him."
• AmSpec Blog's Philip Klein: "His unequivocal defense of the Iraq war by putting it in the context of the broader war on terror will anger liberals, but can only help him in a Republican primary. The direct answer also stood in stark contrast to Romney's use of the 'null set' dodge."

DEBATE MCCAIN: It Was The Best Of Times ...

John McCain's shining moment with the sister of a fallen soldier was widely appreciated, but while some thought he gave his best defense of the Senate immigration bill so far, it once again proved his ultimate undoing among conservatives. On Iraq:

• AmSpec Blog's Philip Klein: "He had some wonderful moments in the debate. When he stood up and addressed the woman who lost her brother in Iraq with a heartfelt, passionate, and substantive answer it reinforced why, though I may disagree with McCain on many issues, I'll always have a lot of respect for him."
• The Corner's John Podhoretz: "McCain at His Best. He gives a beautiful, soulful, substantive answer to a woman whose brother died in Iraq."
• Townhall's Patrick Ruffini: "If you're the maverick, you need to show unscripted flashes of authenticity with the goal of getting voters to respect you when they don't agree with you. McCain did that twice tonight. First in his moving response to the sister of the fallen soldier. And second in his tribute to the immigrants who've fought in our military."
• Instapundit: "The McCain people are on top of things -- they've already sent this YouTube video of McCain on Iraq."

On immigration:

• Mark at RedState: "Sen. McCain's presidential campaign ended last night. ... I saw him talking down to the audience, the other candidates, and the nation on the issue of immigration. Second, I saw Sen. McCain being beaten up by everyone on stage over his position on immigration. Third, I saw and heard him in an insultingly thinly veiled fashion accuse every opponent of his position on immigration of being a racist."
• SC's Daily Chaser on McCain saying, "This isn't the bill I would have written": "Excuse me? What does that even mean?
• The Corner's Michael Graham: "McCain's Moral Preening: Does it ever end? His opponents on immigration want to hurt America, they're bigots, and he's better than those who want to enforce the law. Now I have to abandon the rule of law because some of the fine men who gave their lives in Vietnam were Hispanic? I bet a few were of Arab descent, too. What does that prove?"
• The Corner's Mark Levin: "I'm sorry, but when McCain turns the illegal immigration discussion into a like v. dislike Hispanics he does himself and this nation a great disservice."
• The Corner's Rich Lowry: "The underlying thematic argument between Rudy and McCain on the immigration bill is anti-Washington v. pro-Washington, with Rudy attacking the way Washington worked on this thing and McCain defending it. Politically, that's a big winner for Rudy."
• Power Line's Paul Mirengoff: "McCain defended his position on immigration eloquently, but it's a losing position. Indeed, at the peak of his eloquence he probably gave the game away, stating that America is a shining city and we're not going to build a fence around it. McCain thus confirmed the worst fear the Republican base has about him, that he doesn't really care about immigration enforcement."
• Townhall's Hugh Hewitt: "Senator McCain simply does not care what the republican base thinks. He didn't care on McCain-Feingold. He didn't care on the Gang of 14. He didn't care on McCain-Kennedy 1.0 or the treatment and trial of terrorists bill, and he doesn't care on the fence and McCain-Kennedy 2.0."
• Captain's Quarters: "He called the US a shining city on the hill, evoking Reagan, and then asserted that he "would not build fences and barriers" around it. Rhetorically, it's a great flourish -- but politically, it's suicide. He just reinforced the notion that he won't actually follow through on border security, which most Republicans believe involves building fences and barriers."

DEBATE ROMNEY: The Unflappable Flip Flop

Mitt Romney changed few minds with his 6/5 performance. Those with a favorable impression before the debate left with that belief, and those that like to label Romney a flip flopper left pleased as well. The flip flop fans include:

• The Corner's Andy McCarthy: "Mitt doesn't answer the question about why he's running spanish ads. Not his best moment tonight ... and since he hasn't seemed to get called on much, that's making it a bad night."
• Ankle Biting Pundit's Bull Dog Pundit: "Mitt Romney was utterly awful tonight. His answer about whether Iraq was a mistake (i.e. 'null set' and 'non-sequitir') was utterly incomprehensible."
• Andrew Sullivan: "It's rare to see a fraud exposed quite as clearly in real time as the Republichameleon. So he's for making English the national language, but runs campaign ads in Spanish: an almost perfect representation of the plastic one's bullshit."
• The Corner's Rich Lowry: "Romney was polished as always, but didn't quite have the gravitas of Rudy and McCain on national security, seemed to get less time than the other top-tier candidates and seemed to dodge some of the flip-flop questions."

More supportive takes on Romney include:

• IA Voice: "If anything, I'd say that Romney won because he didn't do anything to shoot himself in the foot and damage his standings in the polls. Which, when you're the frontrunner, is goal #1. He did that last night."
• NRO's Jim Geraghty: "As I was watching this, I thought, 'I would be comfortable with Romney as the nominee.' The word 'unflappable' comes to mind."
• Power Line's Paul Mirengoff: "Romney had a solid night, but he just can't hit the notes that Giuliani and McCain reach at their best (and you can probably add Fred Thompson to that list too)."

THE SEVEN DWARFS: It's True, Jim Gilmore Was Jim Gilmore

Mike Huckabee was the consensus winner among second-tier candidates, but no one was ready to elevate his chances yet either. Reax on all include:

• The Corner's Andy McCarthy: "Is Brownback Insane? Answer to woman whose brother was KIA in Iraq is let's divide the country into three? She wants to hear what he died for, damn it.
• RedState's Erick Erickson: "Hands down, my friends, hands down, Mike Huckabee won tonight's debate. You can have your favorites. I have no desire to vote for Mike Huckabee. But he totally, fully, and completely dominated this debate.
• Hit And Run's David Weigel: "Things Duncan Hunter doesn't want to nuke: the border wall, the Liberty Bell, Disneyworld's California Adventure. Things he does: All that other stuff.
• The Corner's John Podhoretz: "Ron Paul basically just invalidated World War II. Nice going, Congressman!"
• The Corner's Michael Graham: "Tom Tancredo is Right but he somehow manages to make all his arguments seem wrong."
• On Tommy Thompson introducing, "My name is Thompson-Tommy. I'm the candidate, not the actor," Podhoretz blogs: "Oh. Well, probably not the candidate much longer."
• Captain's Quarters: "Jim Gilmore was ... Jim Gilmore."

GOP FIELD: The Fred Factor

RCP Blog's Blake Dvorak is surprised by McLaughlin and Associates findings that show Fred Thompson has moved to second among GOPers on the back of moderate GOPer support pulled from Rudy Giuliani: "Considering the kind of Republican Giuliani is and how this race has gone so far, you probably wouldn't have predicted Giuliani losing the most support among moderate Republicans, especially to Thompson."

ROMNEY: Cliff Notes

SC Daily Chaser's highlights the important names from Mitt Romney's recent SC Finance Chair announcement:

Anybody who has any clue about golf in the Southeastern U.S. knows about Jim Anthony's real estate development 'The Cliffs'. And Bill Hewitt might not have a last name like Ravenel or Maybank, but he is an esteemed member of Charleston's exclusive high society. Also on board is Peter Brown who is the VP of Colite International. The group will be lead by the highly experienced Drea Byars, who spent last election cycle partnered with the Crunchy Republican Sunny Philips in advising numerous candidates on fundraising.

F. THOMPSON: Where's Michael Moore When You Need Him

Without Michael Moore to beat up on, Fred Thompson failed to outshadow 6/5's debate the same way he did the 5/15 contest. Both NY Sun's Ryan Sager and AmSpec Blog's Philip Klein caught Thompson's Hannity & Colmes appearance after they watched the GOP debate and neither was particularly impressed:

From Klein: "After watching two hours of Republicans answer tough questions, I thought Thompson's performance was a dud. ... He was fine at laying out a lot of the problems and challenges we face that he said people aren't really talking about correctly or don't comprehend ... but he didn't offer any solutions to those problems or make any sort of case for why he thinks he might be the person best suited to solve them."

From Sager: "The biggest loser of the night, in my opinion, was Fred Thompson. ... Mr. Thompson's "Hannity & Colmes" appearance just didn't do the trick. It would have been better to stay home and wait for the next debate than to set-up his own special forum, separate from the other candidates."

The Corner's Kathryn Jean Lopez, flags Ann Coulter distaste for Thompson, and RedState's Erick Erickson is a fan of Mike Huckabee's Mighty Mouse jab at Thompson, posting a video compilation of Thompson set to the MM theme song.

DEM FIELD: Lynchpin Me, I Must Be Dreaming

MyDD's Chris Bowers comments on Franklin Pierce's NH poll post-debate that shows Hillary Clinton at 38% (up from 32% 3 mo. ago), Barack Obama at 16% (down from 25%) and John Edwards at 13% (down from 15%). Bowers writes NH remains the "strategic lynchpin" in Clinton's advantage for the Dem nod. While "some cracks are showing" her advantage in other states, as long as she leads in NH, she has the "inside track" to the Dem nod -- and her lead "actually appears to be increasing" there. Also per the poll, 45% said Clinton performed the best, while no other candidate reached single digits.

CLINTON: Was Lost, But Now Am Profound

Byron Williams writes in Huffington Post that Clinton's mid-debate statement -- "I think it's important particularly to point out, this is George Bush's war -- he is responsible for the war...He started the war. He escalated the war. And he refuses to end the war" -- was "the most profound statement in that it was so superficial." It might have been "red meat" for Dems to blame it on Bush, "but it is historically dishonest" because "this is America's war; the president and Congress saw to that." Anyone who fails to understand this "immediately disqualifies himself or herself as worthy to lead the country at a time such as this."

Nate Willems writes at MyDD on news that Teresa Vilmain will head Clinton's IA operation. Vilmain is a Dem operative "who has been awarded genius status" and is "given a lot of credit" for Vilsack's '98 GOV upset. "The idea is that Hillary Clinton has made one big hire that has the potential to turn her campaign around in Iowa.... if I were working for either Obama or Edwards in Iowa today, my paranoia level would have just gone through the roof."

Bleeding Heartland chimes in on the Vilmain hire, adding Clinton has lined up the support of "some big Vilsack donors as well," including Bill Knapp and Jerry Crawford. But he's not feeling paranoid now because "expectations for the Clinton campaign will now rise. What is her excuse going to be if she comes in a distant third on caucus night now?"

Meanwhile, Talk Left writes that it takes "chutzpah" to publish a book on Clinton by Jeff Gerth, but the publisher Litter, Brown did so anyway. Given Gerth's "atrocious record as a reporter, particularly on Whitewater," leaves him "with no credibility whatsoever" especially on the Clintons.

EDWARDS: Insecurity Breach

New Donkey's Ed Kilgore calls Edwards efforts during the Dem debate to "separate himself from Clinton and Obama" with his comments on the "War on Terror" were "politically perilous, to say the least." Though there's been talk that Edwards is struggling in national polls, and in SC and FL, but "it's generally conceded, even by the Edwards campaign, that he pretty much has to win the Iowa Caucuses to have a serious shot at the nomination." So far he's doing best in IA, "but it doesn't like like he's going to get a clear path" the Dem nod "by being the disputed antiwar Democrat in the top tier."

Atlantic Monthly's Matt Yglesias blogs that he disagrees with Kilgore's post, and actually Edwards comments are the "most significant aspect" of his "decision to take to take this bit of sloganeering on." Clinton's "shameful efforts to play right-wing demagogue" to Edwards "have no sting whatsoever." A party that "doesn't have sufficient confidence in its national security chops...is bound to end up projecting that insecurity to voters" in a hit that's "much more damaging" than in the 48-hour news cycle.

GRAVEL: It's Actually Really Easy To Say I'm Sorry

Mike Gravel blogs at HuffPo that Clinton "refuses to admit an obvious mistake" at the debate when asked about her husband's "Don't Ask" policy. Clinton "tried to rewrite history by spinning 'Don't Ask' as a 'first step' toward gays and lesbians openly serving in the military." Gravel blogs if he's elected, he'll "immediately" apologize on behalf of the govt to each of the 100K service people discharged because of sexual orientation -- and challenges the rest of the candidates to do so as well.

OBAMA: The Story's Framing Was Not So AP-propriate

TPM'sGreg Sargent calls the AP's Obama story some "really, really rank journalism." The AP is "badly distorting" Obama's speech, "giving his words a scary and racially-threatening cast that they simply didn't have in reality." The "loaded language" in the story's lede, such as "warns" and "threatens," combined with the "obvious insinuation that Obama is somehow threatening that riots may occur," is on Drudge Report and CNN. But Obama "is actually making a subtle and interesting point" in that he's not saying "quiet riots" are actual riots, but rather they are "things that devastate communities" such as crime and violence. Sargent ads: "That idea simply isn't in the speech. The AP just dreamed it up."

Mark Kleiman also blogs at Same Facts on how the AP covered Obama's Hampton Inst. speech. Kleiman writes Obama's argument was that the "quiet riot" gets ignored, but instead AP's bob Lewis "decides to treat the speech as a Jesse-Jacksonesque 'no justice, no peace' threat that noisy riots will break out again unless inner-city programs are dealt with." Kleiman concludes: "Again, I don't think the problem is bias; it's just post-literacy." Atlantic'sAmbinder concurs that the AP's lede is indeed "incendiary,"

At TAPPED, Ezra Klein is buying into Obama's health care plan as its "evolving in positive directions since it was first announced." The "public insurance program appears to have been elevated to a place of larger centrality and wider relevance." Though he described it as a plan of "almosts" last week, Klein writes he's "happy to say it's getting closer with each passing day."

The Plank's Cohn links to Klein, writing: "I've always thought single-payer systems worked better than individual mandate schemes. But if individual mandate schemes are imperfect, they're still a whole lot better than nothing."

GLOBAL WARMING: It's Getting Hot In Here

The netroots are upset over a Rep. Rick Boucher (D-VA) bill that would preempt any state action on global warming once the federal government finally acted. Daily Kos' Devilstower blogs: "This is such an astoundingly bad bill, that it's amazing it could ever be considered. That it's been seriously put forward from a Democratically chaired committee is sickening."

Also at Daily Kos, The Lighthouse Keeper note Rep. John Dingell's (D-MA) support for the effort and adds: "This is an effort to thwart California and other states' attempt to lead the country in the right direction and it must not stand! ... I think it's about time both of these men got a serious dose of reality. Obviously, neither of them represent constituencies remotely reflecting the average DKos member, but surely, someone out there must be able to mobilize voters in those respective districts. ... Is Boucher a closet Republican? What the hell is wrong with him?

IRAQ: He Names Names

The Washington Monthly's Kevin Drum's estimation that "maybe 20% of congressional Republicans will join [Democrats] in voting to fund a gradual drawdown when September rolls around. If Democrats are willing to stand their ground and fight, that's probably enough," drew fire from Talk Left's Big Tent Democrat:

I think that is simply fantasy. Who are these "20% of Republicans?" And even if they exist, what of a Presidential veto Kevin? 20% of Republicans is NOT enough for a veto proof majority. When will folks deal with reality here? the NOT funding after a date certain option is the only way to end the Iraq Debacle.

Drum responds:

First, the 20% number is obviously just a flyer. My guess is that events in Iraq combined with constituent pressure will end up pushing maybe 10 GOP senators and 40 GOP congressmembers into the anti-war camp. This will likely be a combination of moderates who are on the fence already (think John Warner); temperamental isolationists who are hawkish but were never really that thrilled with the neocon grand plan in the first place (think Jeff Sessions); and folks who simply decide that opposition is the only way they can win reelection next year (think Norm Coleman). Needless to say, though, I could be all wet about this.

Second, my whole point was precisely that even if this happens, it's not enough for a veto-proof majority. ... There's really no alternative since Democrats aren't likely to ever "have the votes" to end the war if that means having a veto-proof majority. Public opinion is key, not partisan majorities.

THOUGHT OF THE DAY: Kill Bill

Kausfiles is beginning to warm up to the idea that the Senate immigration bill could be killed by an amendment that shifts the burden of proof on employment eligibility from immigrants to employers and makes all fines due immediately upon citation ("Let the employers appeal the fine after they've paid."). Kaus adds:

At the very least, tough anti-employer amendments would give labor Dems who'd like to kill the bill--but who might not want to leave many fingerprints--a way to accomplish their goal: they merely vote to make the evil, illegal-hiring employers bear their fair responsibility. It just so happens that this breaks apart the bill's core coalition.

LEST WE FORGET: Arrrr, At Least The Busty Wenches Part Is True

Following Johnny Depp's win at the MTV Movie Awards for his role in the Pirates of the Caribbean, Slate's Christopher Bonanos asks if pirates really ever said "arrrrr." Unfortunately:

Probably not. Both that phrase and the accent that goes with it are strictly Hollywood. They originated with Robert Newton, the actor who played Long John Silver in the movies and on TV through much of the 1950s. ... So, was there a typical pirate accent at all? Among British outlaws, yes: The onboard speech was most likely underclass British sailor with extra curse words, augmented with a polyglot slang of French, Italian, Spanish, and Dutch picked up around the trade routes. "Arrrrr" is strictly fiction, as are a number of the other affiliated signifiers: Nobody ever walked the plank, and nobody has ever discovered an actual pirate treasure map. On the myth-confirming side, pirates were known to dress in loose clothing, guzzle rum and smash the empty bottles, and chase busty wenches through Caribbean ports.

Posted by Conn Carroll at June 6, 2007 12:35 PM