June 04, 2007

6/4: Slow And Steady

Just looking at the raw 'who won the debate' online straw polls can be a bit misleading since the blogosphere's hyper-informed audiences generally have strong preferences going into each contest. Comparing the debate numbers to the most recent regular straw poll results provides a better indication of who won, and as far as 6/3 goes, Hillary Clinton was the big winner. Polling at 6% at Daily Kos normally, 17% of respondents picker her as 6/3's winner. Barack Obama came in at 23% (compared to 24%) and John Edwards at 27% (compared to 39%).

While Obama did not outperform his normal levels of online support, it's possible his two major confrontations with Edwards were a more significant development than HRC's showing. While some point out that eventually Obama will have to break through, with money and volunteers currently streaming through his doors, there is no reason that moment has to be any time soon. Obama does have to stay positioned as THE anti-Hillary though, and he clearly bested Edwards to stay in that position last night.

Also, Eric Alterman, who was arrested outside of the debate spin room (see his account here), makes the case for Edwards on electabilty grounds at Bloggingheads.tv.

DEBATE BIDEN: Anti-Genocide

Joe Bidenled the league in positive debate reviews among non-top tier candidates. Positive Daily Kos comments include:

• Biden's Always Been Consistent on Genocide. He was great during the Balkans. Wacky in some other ways, but props to a career of consistency on genocide.
• Why am I liking Biden do much? Seriously, I like Biden every time he opens his mouth! Who knew??
• Biden let it fly. I like that.

DEBATE CLINTON: Best Moderator Ever

For the second debate in a row, Hillary Clinton surprised netroots doubters with a strong and compelling performance. As always with HRC, negative takes were easy to find, but first the good:

• I am unalterably opposed to Hillary, but her answer to the question of whether we'd take out Bin Laden was perfect, if obvious. She said we'd have to assess the probable human cost and weigh it against our need to eliminate a megavillian.
• Clinton lecturing Wolf ... I don't like her, but that was much-needed.
• She's got gumption
• The Plank's Jason Zengerle: "She may be wishy-washy on Iraq, but Hillary is firmly against annoying hypothetical questions. Good for her."
• TAPPED's Sam Rosenfeld: "Clinton's targeting of the insurance and pharma lobbies in her discussion of the political dynamics of this issue deserves particular praise here."
• Talk Left's Jeralyn Merritt: "A great 16 second moment in the debate -- Hillary blasts Condi Rice and Dick Cheney for their lack of diplomacy skills."
• firedoglake's Scarecrow: "Response of the night so far: Hillary says we need to use all our Presidents to help us repair the damage of the last 7 years. Wonder how George 41 feels about that?"
• Andrew Sullivan: "There were times when her robo-lecture act began to wear down my ear-drums, but, in general, Senator Clinton bestrode the debate as an authoritative figure. In fact, I've never witnessed a U.S. political debate in which a woman clearly dominated as she did tonight. ... she wins this one. It kills me to admit it. But there you are."
• poor kos - hillary is doing so well!

Speaking of Markos, he was not impressed with Clinton's refusal to admit mistake on Iraq: "Shorter Hillary Clinton: 'I trusted Bush on Iraq.' That, alone, should be enough to disqualify her. 'Good judgement' is a must-have trait for our next president. ... I don't know why she just can't say about her war authorization vote: 'I regret that vote. It was a mistake.' Edwards did so and it hasn't hurt him."

Many were also unhappy with Clinton's appraisal that we are safer now than we were on 9/11/ Daily Kos' TomP responds: "I thought Senator Clinton was absolutely terrible on GWOT. She appears to me to be a demagogue. She uses 9/11 to endorse a war against a method. Clinton is a smart woman and knows better. That is what a demagogue is to me. Harsh words, but she earned them. She is everything wrong in the Democratic Party that we must change."

DEBATE EDWARDS: Leadership A Little Late

John Edwards attacks on Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton fell flat in even his most sympathetic venues (Daily Kos and MyDD). Those and other reax include:

• firedoglake's Scarecrow: "Edwards points out that Clinton and Obama waiting to last minute to announce their vote; that's not leadership, but Obama says Edwards is 4 1/2 years late on 'leadership.' And Hillary says this is George Bush's war - asserting herself to speak for the group. ... She's won the rhetorical point and Edwards seems on the defensive ... Ironic that Obama and Clinton join to neutralize Edwards."
• TAPPED's Sam Rosenfeld: "John Edwards took the first direct shots at fellow candidates in tonight's Democratic primary debate in New Hampshire ... he said the way in which Obama and Clinton handled the vote illustrated the difference between "being a leader and being a follower" ... This seems ... thin."
• a MyDD commentator: "Edwards struck me as too attacky to do him good. Maybe it's just my reading between the lines but when he said Clinton and Obama didn't show leadership because they wouldn't loudly proclaim how they would vote beforehand, I thought that was really off the mark."
• a Daily Kos commentator: "Edwards is sounding petty with this criticism. What he's saying may have merit, but it's falling flat."
• The Plank's Isaac Choitner: "Edwards seems pretty pathetic keeping this up, especially when he acknowledges that Obama and Clinton 'voted the right way.'"

Panning of Edwards performance was by no means universal:

• a Daily Kos commentator: "Edwards is very strong when he talks about health care and how it needs to be paid for."
• a MyDD commentator: "I also liked how aggressive Edwards was, spiced up the debate a bit--Gravel and Kucinich can be safely ignored, but not Edwards."
• more from Daily Kos comments: "911 is a bumpersticker. Edwards Nails It!!"

DEBATE OBAMA: He's A Uniter, Not A Divider

Barack Obama scored his biggest points when he accused Wolf Blitzer of trying to divide people with his English as official language question. IA's Bleeding Heartland writes: "It played to the image he is trying to cultivate as a uniter, but more important, it was a step toward holding journalists accountable for the framing of their questions." DailyKoscommentatorsreallylovedit .

The netroots also decisively handed Obama wins in both of his direct confrontations with John Edwards. MyDD commentators wrote:

• On Iraq, Obama refused to let Edwards steal the anti-Iraq war mantle from him. Obama reminded Edwards and the whole world that he has been vocally against this war from the beginning.
• I thought Obama shut Edwards down pretty effectively on health care actually.
• Edwards did well, but Obama sort of nailed him on the Iraq NIE question and the health care mandate question. Actually I really liked Obama's defense of his health care plan, even thought I might have agree with Edwards' points prior to Obama's response.

Other pro-Obama reactions:

• Daily Kos' JWH: "Barack Obama - 'When you have a military target like Bin Laden, you take him out.' Sweet!
• Daily Kos' Unstable Isotope: "Surprised Obama calls Iraq an "occupation." It give me warm fuzzies."
• The Plank's Noam Scheiber: "I think Obama probably helped himself more than anyone else. He was pretty facile with the policy details, his mastery of which seemed to be the major question mark hanging over him."

DEBATE RICHARDSON: Anti-Shrinkage

Bill Richardson did little to change the downward trajectory of online opinion of him:

• MyDD's BenjaminK: "Does anyone who watched the debate happen to know what Bill Richardson does for a living?"
• Daily Kos' Miss Laura: "I do not like Bill Richardson's incessant "I'm a pro-growth Democrat" line. As I said at Blue Hampshire yesterday, is he implying that the other candidates are pro-shrinkage?"
• Daily Kos' troqua: "Richardson is getting too much time considering his tier status. And he's boring me to tears."
• Daily Kos' thereisnospoon: "Richardson speaks fluent Platitude."
• Daily Kos' Gutterboy: "All my previous interest in Richardson is just gone. Gone. Between his MTP appearance and this, he's been a disaster."
• The Plank's Jason Zengerle: "Which brings me to Bill Richardson. Is there any reason at this point that we should take his candidacy any more seriously than we do Gravel's and Kucinich's? If there is, I certainly didn't see it in this debate."

DEM FIELD: If Only Obama Could Be Like Dodd

Prior to the debate DailyKos' founder Markos Moulitsas shared his latest thoughts on the state of the Dem field including:

• On Hillary Clinton: "You gotta give the Clinton team credit for bamboozling the public on her Iraq stance. While clearly stating that she would not end the US involvement in the war, she portrays herself as an anti-war crusader. And so far, her opponents have let her get away with it."
• On John Edwards: "Of the top three, Edwards is currently the strongest anti-war voice, unafraid to take a strong stance against the Iraq Capitulation Bill (unlike Clinton and Obama, who were afraid to state an opinion on it until after the vote)."
• On Barack Obama: "Obama passed up a great opportunity to lead the charge against the Iraq supplemental, only deciding to vote against it at the last minute. Unlike Clinton, Obama was probably against it from the beginning. So why the caution? Why the hesitation? Why not demonstrate some leadership? Was he waiting for Axelrod's poll to come back from the field?"
• On Bill Richardson: "Damn, Richardson's star has nearly collapsed these past six weeks. ... His appearance on last Sunday's Meet The Press was an epic flameout, unable to handle Timmeh's questions. And no, you can't be both a Yankees fan and a Red Sox fan."
• On Chris Dodd: "Did the sort of "leadership" thing on the Iraq Supplemental that Obama could've owned, and got lots of well-deserved props for it."

CLINTON: Book Club

Both Jeff Gerth and Dan Van Natta pumped their book Her Way: The Hopes and Ambitions of Hillary Rodham Clinton at The Huffington Post.

• from Gerth: "For all her criticism of George Bush and Dick Cheney for secrecy and incompetence, she has exhibited both traits on occasion. ... She and her allies are working hard in their attempt to obfuscate the book's revelations. Their motive is clear: Her Way shines a spotlight on certain areas of Hillary's political and professional career that she hopes voters will ignore."
• from Van Natta: "The largest chunk of our new book, Her Way, shines a spotlight on the six and a half years that Hillary Clinton has served in the Senate. ... The other Hillary book being published this month devotes just 7 or 8 pages out of 600 to her life in the Senate. It's another reason that Her Way is the one book that Senator Clinton doesn't want you to read."

OBAMA: The Resistible Rise Of Arturo Obama

A month old Chicago Tribunestory on Barack Obama efforts to force primary opponents off the ballot to pave the way for his IL state Sen. run are drawing attention, but not condemnation in some netroots circles. MyDD's Vox Populi summarizes the article:

In his first run for State Senate in 1996, Obama's campaign team challenged the signatures on the nominating petitions of all his Democratic rivals. In the end, only Obama was left. He won his first primary election by default, after a fair share of the dirty politics that makes Chicago famous. ... This 'unconventional' politician used quite conventional methods to restrict the choice of voters in his district.

MyDD's Curt Matlock responds: "Politicians at this level just don't rise that high by living in a Jimmy Stewart world. Spin on the event can certainly vary. As a Democrat partisan my own opinion is that I'm glad to see Obama is a Democratic politician who is going to fight for every vote and use every legal means to win elections. That's what we need in 2008.

GIULIANI: You Talkin' About Me?

Power Line's Paul Mirengoff responds to a National Review On Dead Tree Ramesh Ponnuru article arguing abortion should doom Rudy Giuliani's campaign. Mirengoff first summarizes: "The article seems directed at what Ponnuru calls 'the party's swing voters on abortion' who are 'pro-life, but not vehemently so, and [who] may pay more attention to issues such as the war on terrorism and taxes than they do to abortion in determining for whom to vote.' This is the group to which I belong."

Mirengoff then responds: "I'm not persuaded that nominating Giuliani in 2008 would hurt the party in the future. Republicans would have time to "right" the party, as happened after the first President Bush supported new taxes. Given that we're in the middle of the war on terror, I think swing Republicans should seriously consider supporting Giuliani if there's good reason to believe that he's the only candidate (or the only candidate other than McCain) who can lead the party to victory."

Reacting to newsPatrick Ruffini will no longer be serving as Rudy Giuliani's 'Internet Guru' NY Sun's Ryan Sager blogs: "While it seems Mr. Ruffini left on fine terms, it's probably worth noting that so far the Giuliani Internet operation hasn't been any great shakes."

ROMNEY: If Klein Hates Him, He Must Be Good

Townhall's Hugh Hewitt links to audio from his hour-long interview with Joe Klein about his recent anti-Mitt Romney column and hits back:

In short, Klein delivers another example of ... a collective shudder among the MSM at the prospect of yet another conservative GOP nominee who could keep the White House in Republican hands. Joe got testy when I called him on his transparent Hillary-McCain shilling, his backflip on Romney, and his dismissal of ... anyone, in fact, who sees Iraq as one battle in a vast war between the West and jihadism, a view which Romney holds and defends at every turn. ... Klein's column and the other anti-Romney attacks are the best indication yet that Romney is emerging as the strongest conservative in the race

Back in SC, the Daily Chaser posts to video of Romney at a TN fundraiser and comments: "So you are running for President and you are invited to a big GOP function in TN. You accept, but then a popular former Senator from TN "announces" he might be running for President too. What do you do? We thought Mitt Romney handled this situation pretty darn well."

THOMPSON: Attractive Wives Need Not Apply?

Power Line's Paul Mirengoff caught CSPAN's replay of Fred Thompson's address to a GOP fundraiser in Richmond, VA and comments: "[I]t was an excellent speech. Thompson has a knack for stating conservative principles simply and with what seems like deep conviction. And, perhaps most importantly, he states them strongly but palatably. My wife, who is an independent, liked the speech as much as I did."

Instapundit shares: "A journalist who was there emails with uncharacteristic enthusiasm: 'it's what a stump speech should be.... a standing ovation in the middle of the speech even.'"

Poliblogger notices Thompson's wife is attractive and asks: "I will eschew specific discussion of the 'trophy wife' label (as it is unnecessarily derisive), but given the entire issue of marriage and family, and its prominence in Republican circles, and given the overt lack of GOP front-runners with stellar marital credentials, one has to wonder if pictures like the following might have an effect on some Republican primary voters."

IMMIGRATION: How Low Can He Go?

The Senate immigratin bill continues to drive strong anti-Pres. Bush sentiment among conservatives. Belief Net's Rod Dreher agrees it is time for conservatives to turn their backs on Bush but also advises: "But let's not kid ourselves: Bush has failed conservatives, yes, but we have also failed ourselves. Bush is today who he always was. The difference is we conservatives pretty much loved the guy -- when he was a winner."

The Corner's Jonah Goldberg responds: "Rod's right that the Bush years should foster introspection. So, for me, I can tell you that lessons like this are among the reasons I've become more libertarian in response to the Bush years. What I would like to know is why - on domestic policy - even as Rod has become so virulently anti-Bush, compassionate conservatism has made Rod more, well, compassionately conservative.

Also at The Corner, Mark Steyn challenges Dreher's assessment that 'winning' is why conservatives supported Bush: "But I don't believe the president would have received the kind of support he has received from the conservative base, for as long as he has received it, had we not been attacked. ... And apart from the war (although there's a growing voice of dissent in that regard) much of the national agenda is seen as misplaced (amnesty) and reactive (global warming)."

Also announcing the end of their support for Bush, IA Voice blogs: "I'm sure I'm not the only person in the conservative blogosphere to feel this way, but after Bush's comments the other day in regards to his amnesty scam, I'm officially out of the 30% club ... This is one thing I don't get about Bush or this administration. He attacks those who support him but happen to disagree with him on a single issue, yet he tries to be BFF with those on the left who will NEVER support him on ANYTHING."

Back in TN, Blue Collar Muse reports on talk radio accounts of a Sen. Lamar Alexander (R-TN) constituent meeting on the issue: "Most of the callers also made the observation, in one form or another, that Sen. Alexander seemed shaken by the emotion and reaction from those attending. Prior to this morning, all I've heard from the Senator, personally (on radio interviews) and via others is that he was undecided or neutral but leaning to supporting the bill. It remains to be seen if he is shaken enough to finally declare his opposition to the bill."

IMMIGRATION II: The WSJ vs. The WSJ

It is unclear whether the WSJ editorial board has accepted National Review's challenge to debate the Senate immigration bill. The Corner's Mark Krikorian debated The Journal's Steve Moore on Bill Bennett's radio show and reports Moore committed the WSJ to a debate. However, Townhall's Hugh Hewitt points out that a 6/2 New York Timesarticle on the GOP split over the issue quotes Paul Gigot rejecting NR's invitation.

Do not visit WSJ's Best Of the Web Today for clarification on whether or not the debate will be occuring.

THOUGHT OF THE DAY: The Truth Is Good

The Washington Monthly's Kevin Drum links to Spencer Ackerman's latest story quoting a US soldier, "I don't want them to just support the troops. I want them to support the mission." Ackerman writes: "This matters, because pretending that in ending the war they're doing the troops a favor hurts Democrats politically. They risk looking condescending, and, worse, oblivious - which has the broader effect of undermining public trust in the Democrats to handle national security." Drum adds:

This is God's own truth. Ditto for the Democratic obsession with using better body armor, higher GI pay, or the quality of military medical care as proxies for "supporting the troops." As with leaving Iraq, these are all good things to support. But they're good things on their own terms, not because anyone in uniform will be fooled into thinking that voting for them means you support the military. It's the equivalent of Democrats who thought that John Kerry had automatic credibility on national security just because he was a Vietnam vet.

Telling the truth, as usual, is better: we need to leave Iraq not because we think the troops need rescuing, but because we think that leaving is what's best for our national security. And in the future? That we'll support the troops by making sure that we send them into war only with proper leadership, proper planning, and when the national security of the United States is genuinely at risk. On all these counts both the civilian and uniformed leadership of the military has let down the troops in Iraq. We need to promise that we won't do the same on our watch.

LEST WE FORGET: Root Beer For Everyone!

Watching the 6/3 debate's Hit and Run's David Weigel quuips: "If we repeal the Bush tax cuts, can I have a lifetime supply of root beer and a perpetual motion machine? Because apparently repealing them would pay for everything."

Posted by Conn Carroll at June 4, 2007 12:58 PM