June 29, 2007

6/29: The Inevitability Is Back (If It Ever Really Left)

We understand that IA is still more than six months away, and that it is hard to attack an opponent in your own party, but John Edwards and Barack Obama are going to have to change their debate strategies in some way if they ever plan to cut into Hillary Clinton's lead. There is, perhaps, no more primed an audience than the netroots to jump on HRC for a slip up, or latch onto a stellar non-HRC performance than the netroots, but so far after every debate the story is always the same: Hillary looked strong, smart, and confident, and since there are no real policy differences between the candidates, Hillary would represent the party just fine. Do the Obama and Edwards camps really want these impressions solidifying in the MSM and the netroots?

DEM DEBATE: Another Debate, Another Clinton Win

While not normally representative of consensus netroots opinion, The Plank's Michael Crowley's overall all impression of 6/29's All American Presidential Forum closely mirrored online opinion: "Once again I found myself thinking that Hillary Clinton is on track to be the next president, and that Barack Obama always slightly unsatisfying in the shadow of his amazing 2004 Democratic convention speech." As in all previous Dem debates, a Daily Kos straw poll found John Edwards to be the winner of the debate (with 27%) while significantly underperforming his regular straw poll number (40%). Again, HRC's debate win total more than double her normal straw poll results (17% v 6%).

Reactions to the performances of non-big three candidates includes:

• Jack and Jill Politics' Jill Tubman: "Biden, Richardson and Dodd - sadly weak. Richardson seemed quite unprepared to discuss HIV/AIDS which was odd. Did no one tell him this is a big deal for African-Americans? Gravel played his usual role saying what no one else has the courage to say. I love that guy. ... Kucinich did very well. He's always been the sleeper candidate. The crowd loved his answers. The big three candidates would do well to pay attention to why people like him -- he talks about the things people care about in ways that are compelling, down-to-earth and stunningly sensible."
• Daily Kos' Betsy McCall: "Kucinich is most necessary to keep the debate focused on real problems we're dealing with now. Without him, Dems would ignore Iraq, health care reform and the illegal acts of the Bush administration."
• Oliver Willis: "It should be noted for the record that Dennis Kucinich is the only candidate who came by the bloggers to press the flesh, along with his wife Elizabeth who positively towers over him. ... The handlers Mike Gravel had around him were just the kind of guys you would think would follow Mike Gravel around. A little... off."

DEBATE CLINTON: Steady As She Goes

Daily Kos and MyDD comments regarding Hillary Clinton's performance included:

• from MyDD: "I stood up and clapped for my sister, yes my white sister, when she said if it was WHITE WOMEN with AIDS it would be an outcry. DAMN RIGHT."
• from Daily Kos: "It's going to take something big to stop Sen. Clinton, she knows her stuff and is getting better and better at the whole debating thing."
• from MyDD: "Clinton is just too damn good in these things. Second place to Obama and Edwards. Dodd gets 3rd."
• from Daily Kos: "The crowd gave a roar of approval for Hillary, the Clintons have been great friends for black Americans for years and many of the women in the crowd applauded too. Also it's obvious that there is crowd support for Obama but let's face it, black Americans can't go wrong with any of these candidates!"
• from MyDD: "She did very well but she did not "dominate" this debate, as she did the last one. She knows how to effectively deliver one-liners."

Non MyDD/dKos reax include:

• Oliver Willis: "If there's a winner so far it's HRC. But its kind of like Martyball - you hold the ball when you have the lead and don't make any sudden moves."
• Skeptical Brotha: "First question: Does race matter as it did for Du Bois at the beginning of the 20th century? Hillary-strong. Obama-weak."
• Jack and Jill Politics: "I am not sure if there were any big winners. Clinton in particular did not receive the love that her husband would have had he been there and she would have been smart to bring him. Her answers were well-received in general and I particularly appreciated her take on AIDS and its impact on African-American women which received a standing ovation from some black female attendees."
• The Washington Monthly's Steve Benen: "I didn't see any campaign-changing moments, though Hillary Clinton just about brought the house down when she said AIDS would be a higher national priority if it were the number one killer of white women ages 25 to 34. (The comment drew the loudest, most sustained applause of the night.)"

DEBATE EDWARDS: Is It Too Late To Make Elizabeth The Candidate?

John Edwards did nothing to sink him among netrooters watching the debate, but he did not 'wow' many of them either. Daily Kos commentator reax include:

• Miss Laura: "I thought Edwards was really underwhelming the first debates, and is doing better tonight. But I guess that makes sense, since this has been much more domestic policy oriented, more open to his key issues being raised."
• GU Dems: "Edwards has been totally forgettable and said nothing really exciting or new."
• America 08: "Edwards answers best and complete, the Debate moving along. Eliminate all tax breaks for companies taking jobs off shore! YEA!!!!!"
• TJB: "Already leaning Edwards and I thought he showed a very strong grasp of the issues tonight. This debate certainly did him no harm and he quite likely will be helped."
• Diana in NoVa: "Edwards...I still can't warm up to him. Don't know why. Wish I could vote for Elizabeth."

Also from Jack and Jill Politics Tubman: "Edwards did very well in most of his answers and I was certainly impressed at his thoughtful, practical and on-point responses. The Edwards campaign reached out to me and sent me a document with his answers to the Covenant for Black America best-selling book."

DEBATE OBAMA: Too Bill Cosby

Non-MyDD/Daily Kos takes on Barack Obama's effort include:

• Oliver Willis: "Obama discusses homophobia with black America. He's the only one I think who can be critical of black America's problems, and I'm glad he's doing it rather than mindless boosterism."
• BlakProf's Sherrilyn Ifill: "[Dr. Michael Eric] Dyson, clearly is feelin' Obama. When asked by columnist Clarence Page to react to the fact that Hillary Clinton seemed to get the biggest applause of the night, Dyson said slowly, "Hillary is extremely poised and practiced." ... I asked him whether he felt that Obama was coming up on a Cosby moment when he started talking about "valuing achievement." He was candid. Say yes, he was concerned about where Obama was going, but felt that Obama is willing 'to work on social construction.'"
• Pam's House Blend: "Obama's short, but powerful statement on black homophobia is one that none of the other candidates mentioned. Is this a surprise? No. ... The candidates fear perceptions of a paternalistic white finger being waved at the community will result in blowback from black voters."
• Jack and Jill Politics Tubman: "He did so well in tapping his fingers on the touchstones of our culture in thanking Howard, its president, Thurgood Marshall, the Covenant with Black America authors, etc. He referenced history and put himself in that context. ... Still that early advantage was eroded with overall lackluster answers. He was fine, but I can't think of many standout moments where he electrified the audience. I'm so proud of him - it's true. But I can't help but expect more from him."

Dkos/MyDD reactions include:

• from Daily Kos: "I've been leaning Obama, but I wish his answers were as polished as Mrs. Clinton's."
• from MyDD: "Ok, this is the 4th time Obama and Edwards have agreed. Maybe y'all can take a hint and quit flaming and troll rating each other."
• from Daily Kos: "Obama was very good and he looks good and he connects well. He's certainly at the top of my list...but I still wish we'd hear more solid proposals."
• from MyDD: "But as someone who was already leaning Obama, I have to say he continued to impress and build upon his last debate performance. Obama looked presidential. He was thoughtful and concise. I think he has developed a lot more gravitas and with this debate has continued to show he can stand with the big boys."
• from Daily Kos: "Obama Is Sounding Very Bill Cosby-ish I expected better."

CLINTON: She Probably Really Does Like Celine Dionne

Catching a CNN segment entitles "Bill Clinton Factor: Campaign Asset or Liability?" Atrios responds: "Only to the Drudge-addled brains of our elite press corps would this question even occur. ... Bill Clinton is probably the most popular man in the country. The 90s were a period of growth, optimism, wage growth across the board, declining unemployment and declining poverty. America got its groove back. Like the guy or not, the idea that he'd be anything but an asset for Hillary Clinton is absurd."

Upset that Clinton's YouTube theme song contest contributed to the "trivialization of politics," MyDD's Matt Stoller posts a new YouTube mocking HRC and comments: "It does capture Hillary Clinton, who probably really does like Celine Dionne, Hallmark cards, and casserole."

Back in IA, Bleeding Heartland is not upset by recent stories on the polling practices of Team Clinton: "There have been some claims that Hillary Clinton is "push-polling" against her main rivals, Barack Obama and John Edwards in Iowa and New Hampshire. Her campaign appears to have commissioned some detailed message testing in both states. That is different from a sleazy push-poll (such as what Bush did to McCain in South Carolina in 2000, having people call up voters asking if it would change their opinion if they knew that McCain had an illegitimate black child). I don't have a problem with message testing ... I do think it's sleazy for Democrats to attack each other using right-wing talking points, but I don't blame campaigns for wanting to know which messages are going to be effective for and against them."

DODD: That's Him In The Spotlight

DailyKos' founder Markos Moulitsas is yet another fan of Chirs Dodd's use of YouTube's spotlight series to try an end the Iraq War: "Yes, it's a campaign tactic. But Chris Dodd's use of his YouTube spotlight is the kind of campaigning I personally want to see. ... That's leadership."

OBAMA: The $37M Man

Reactions to Barack Obama's goal of 250k donors by 6/30 include:

• MyDD's Jonathan Singer: "Obviously, the comparison to [Howard] Dean isn't a perfect one. Voters overall are significantly more engaged in the presidential race at this point than they were at the same point last cycle, and Obama already has a much higher profile within the media, and thus the primary electorate, than did Dean. That said, 250,000 people is a lot people, and you can't underscore that fact."
• MyDD's Obama08: "When you crunch those numbers that means that he has recruited an average of over 1,380 new donors EVERY DAY this year. Impressive you say. Now we look a little deeper and remember that he had over 100,000 donors in the first quarter, meaning that there will be about 150,000 new unique voters this quarter. That means that he will have recruited about 1,650 donors a day throughout this quarter, that is nearly unbelievable. I don't care whether you call it a movement or not, moving that many people to donate on a daily basis is incredible."
• TAPPED's Garance Franke-Ruta: "Let's do some back-of-the-envelope math here, shall we? Last quarter, Obama brought in $25.7 million from 104,000 donors. This time around, he is shooting for 250,000 donors (his campaign currently reports 245,272). Even assuming that all Obama's second-quarter growth was from low-dollar donors (an assumption that's almost certainly incorrect), I don't see how this adds up to less than $37 million."

In less positive Obama blogging, The Left Coaster's Steve Soto notes Obama's opposition to an impeachment of Pres. Bush or VP Cheney and blogs: "Gee, thanks for that window into your judgment Senator."

BROWNBACK: The Yellowbrick Road Hits A 'Switchback'

One might think it was impossible to vote against the Senate immigration bill and yet still comes out a bigger political loser on the issue than John McCain, and yet Sam Brownback's 'yea' to 'no' vote switch accomplished just that. Hot Air's Allahpundit describes the scene:

Say, how come there are 47 yes votes when the roll says there were only 46? Ah, my friends, that's because Sam Brownback turned out to be the weaseliest "no" vote of all. He voted yes right at the very beginning, during the alphabetical vote, probably thinking that cloture was going to pass. Then, when it died, he switched to a no. I almost wish he was pulling more than 1% in the presidential polls so we could hammer him into oblivion with that. As it is, I've captured his moment of shame for posterity on video. I think that's him in the red circle; you'll see him gesture to the clerk just before she announces his deep, principled opposition to amnesty.

NRO's Jim Geraghty posted Brownback's official "I wanted to signal that I am supportive of comprehensive immigration reform, but that now is not the time and this is not the bill" explanation, but no one was buying it. Reactions include:

• Michelle Malkin: "Bryan and I cooked up another Kaus-inspired shamnesty Hot Air ad just for Senator Switchback."
• more Geraghty: "It's a shame that he's named Brownback, since the "Switchback" nickname is going to stick."
• The Corner's Rich Lowry: "Brownback Voted "Yes"...as far as I'm concerned. The way the game is played is that you vote "yes" if they need your vote, and then when it becomes clear that it's failing, you become a "no." Now, if the campaign's (hard-to-believe-verging-on-laughable) explanation is true that this was a deliberate strategy on his part to vote first "yes" and then "no," well, then, he's badly in need of better political advice and you have to question his judgment for going along with it."
• The Corner's Kathryn Jean Lopez: "He Voted For It Before He Voted Against It. Ouch."
• Ace of Spades posts a mock inspirational poster with Brownback's picture and the caption: "Courage: The bravery to choose the unpopular path - and then choose the other path, once you realize just how unpopular it is. Oh Well! That's why god gave pencils erasers!"

GIULIANI: Copying The Terminator Will Get You Terminated

Captain's Quarters links to a NY Sunarticle reporting "Mayor [Rudy] Giuliani is telling California voters wondering what kind of president he would make that they need to look no further than their popular Republican governor, Arnold Schwarzenegger," and warns: "Arnold has done very well for himself in California, but no one confuses him with a conservative, not even the state's GOP. ... In California, as in New York City, that's the only kind of Republican that can get elected to an executive office. That doesn't mean that the rest of the Republicans around the country want to elect them, however, and Rudy may be making a mistake by reinforcing the impression that he's so far out of step with conservatives in the party. He could find himself positioned well for a general election that he'll never reach."

MCCAIN: Not Dead Yet

AmSpec Blog's Philip Klein makes the case the defeat of the immigration bill is the best possible outcome for John McCain's WH hopes: "Over the next few months, the level of anger people have toward this immigration legislation will lose intensity as long as it remains dead. By the fall most of the attention will be focused on Iraq, an issue on which McCain will again take a courageous stand--only this time he'll be on the same side as the conservative base. While I still think that McCain has alienated too many conservatives since 1999 to capture the nomination, now that the immigration bill was defeated, I think his longevity has increased dramatically."

Townhall's Dean Barnett agrees that nothing can change the fate of McCain's campaign: "And regardless of what Mort Kondracke or McCain's other friends in the media believe, the base's disdain for McCain does not primarily derive from personal animus. Instead, that disdain flows directly from the fact that John McCain has been a more damaging presence in the Senate over the past six years than anyone else - Tom Daschle, Ted Kennedy and Harry Reid included. ... Yes, he's right on the war, but a lot of senators are right on the war. But McCain has been so wrong and so destructive on so many other issues, his relationship with the base is fractured beyond repair."

ROMNEY: Not Getting PETA's Endorsement

All the rage in more lefty circles, the Boston Globe's account of Mitt Romney strapping the family dog's carrier onto the family car's roof for a 12 hour drive to Ontario, CA, is beginning to penetrate conservative sites. NY Sun's Ryan Sager links to Swampland's post and comments: "I'm no dog lover (I've thought of running for mayor on a "Dog Free NYC" platform), but some people like the disgusting little beasts. For any of those people considering voting for Mitt Romney, read this."

Also in anti-Romney blogging, Outside the Beltway's Alex Knapp links to a Reasonstory looking at a civil suit against Romney UT finance co-chair Robert Lichfield which claim one of the "various business entities" he is involved in locked teens in outdoor dog cages and exercised them to exhaustion. Knapp comments: "While it's certainly true that people should be considered innocent until proven guilty ... common sense would seem to dictate that a presidential candidate might refrain from hiring people accused of child abuse and molestation pending the outcome any criminal investigation or civil lawsuit."

THOMPSON: Finally, A Non-Reagan Comparison

The Corner's Jonah Goldberg notes: "that if Fred Thompson becomes president he'll be the first bald Commander-in-Chief since Ike. ... CORRECTION! Yikes! Sorry, I should have said first follically challenged candidate to be ELECTED president since Ike. Which was the whole point. Woops."

TERROR POLITICS: Dems Want Dems In Charge Of War

Many in the netroots are flagging Eric Kleefeld's catch in the internals of Fox News latest poll. At TPM Cafe Kleefeld quotes from Q24 on the survey: "If there is an all-out war between the United States and various radical Muslim groups worldwide, who would you rather have in charge - Democrats or Republicans?" 41% of respondents chose Dems, while only 38% chose GOPers.

Kleefeld comments: "Granted, the result is within the poll's three-point margin of error, so we can't say with certainty that the Dems have a lead here. But really, this bespeaks truly terrible times for the GOP. The question of which party the people would trust more to lead World War III against a global coalition of Islamofascists should have been a gimme for the Republicans. But they couldn't even manage to get a plurality. Pathetic."

TERROR POLITICS II: On Sneezes And Condoms

The fight over the Foreign Ops App bill is allowing some netrooters to question how closely AIPAC wants to be associated with the GOP. A Dem amendment to the Mexico City policy has GOPers threatening to block the bill to which TPM Cafe's Daniel Levy blogs: "The episode speaks volumes about how far AIPAC has positioned itself in the Republican camp, how deeply in denial the Democrats are of this fact, and how deliciously divorced from Israeli reality the American political debate is."

TAPPED's Ezra Klein adds: "AIPAC, of course, will generally go after Congressmen for taking precious seconds to sneeze when they should be whipping support for this or that pro-Israel bill. They allow absolutely no distractions, or competing priorities, when the legislation is meaningless to Israel. They are absolutely single minded when the question is aid. So their silence here was uncustomary, but, given their tilt in recent years, sadly predictable."

IMMIGRATION: The Right's First Lieberman?

SC's Daily Shot reports "that high level state and national Republican leaders are currently in the process of recruiting SCGOP Chairman Katon Dawson to run against Sen. Lindsey Graham in next year's" GOP primary. More Shot: "Many of these leaders are currently unhappy with Sen. Graham's stances on several key issues including immigration. ... Katon is extremely popular with the party's base. ... Dawson would not have to give up his chairmanship if he ran against Graham, which would allow him to garner the necessary level of earned media most fringe candidates would struggle to get."

THOUGHT OF THE DAY: Nobody Likes You

Talk Left's Big Tent Democrat looks at recent Dem inaction on Iraq and GOP crack up on immigration and comments:

One of the more interesting things to happen politically this year is the manner in which the Beltway Establishment has basically been utterly rejected by most of the country. While David Broder bleats for "sensible bipartisanship" without ever explaining what substantive policies should actually look like, the American People have basically rejected the performance of the Washington Establishment.
For Democrats in Washington, their performance on Iraq has pushed their approval ratings to extreme lows. For Republicans, it has been Bush's immigration bill.

One thing is clear about this year, the big loser has been the Washington Elite. NOBODY likes them. They have never been as out of step with the country as they are now. I wonder if they have any clue about this.

LEST WE FORGET: And The Portland Trailblazers Select ...

For those of you that missed the NBA draft last night, Cracked picks the top 11 11 Movie Basketball Players of All Time including these top five:

• 1 Teen Wolf (Teen Wolf): "Dr. J in a Chewbacca costume"
• 2 Neon Budreau (Blue Chips): "Plays uncannily like Shaquille O'Neal"
• 3 Saleh (The Air Up There): "A more athletic, less sexually forthright Dikembe 'Who Wants to Sex' Mutumbo"
• 4 Jesus Shuttlesworth (He Got Game): "A less charismatic, more idiotically named Ray Allen"
• 5 Jimmy Chitwood (Hoosiers): " A whiter Jeff Hornacek, if that's possible"

Posted by Conn Carroll at June 29, 2007 12:31 PM