June 28, 2007

6/28: After McCain

As part of his '[John] McCain Death Watch' series, NY Sun's Ryan Sager notes 6/27 that Quinnipiac is now including a "without McCain" question in their WH '08 GOP polling, just like they do for longshot undeclared candidates like Condi Rice and Newt Gingrich. While Quinnipiac may be jumping the gun on taking the first look at the post-McCain era, it's worth wondering what a resurgent McCain campaign could look like. Is there a single issue, outside of Iraq, that conservatives agree and identify McCain with? Short of a dramatic 180 degree turn on progress in Iraq, what series of events could possibly end a McCain candidacy? With the Senate immigration bill now dead, McCain may be able to stabilize his downward spiral, but what on earth could possibly start moving his numbers in a positive direction?

BROWNBACK: It's Amnesty If The Base Says Its Amnesty

The Corner's Kathryn Jean Lopez posts a Sam Brownback press release defending his 6/26 vote for cloture on the immigration bill and comments: "I'm not sure he gets the bill is amnesty."

MCCAIN: What Was Your Favorite Moment Of The Candidate McCain Era?

NY Sun's Ryan Sager links to Quinnipiac's latest polling on the GOP Field in FL, OH, and PA and flags a significant development: "They've started adding a category to the GOP primary results labeled, "WITHOUT McCAIN." (See question 2.) ... Now, to those of you who don't spend all your days reading polls like this, the "without" breakdowns are usually reserved for candidates who probably won't be in the race, such as "without Gingrich," "without Rice," etc. This, as far as I know, is the first instance of a major polling organization starting to look publicly at a race without John McCain."

F. THOMPSON: Bloggers Help Those Who Help Themselves

Fred Thompson called into Captain's QuartersRadio to respond to Dem attacks on his past lobbying efforts. Thompson later promoted the segment at RedState and NRO's Jim Geraghty transcribed the call, including:

The Democrats, it looks like, have chosen a fella that's not even in the race yet to launch their attacks against. I don't know when I've been so complimented. ... I'd just say, keep it up guys. These are the same things you tried back in the 1994 campaign when I first ran, and it got you within 20 points of me.

Thompson did not bother responding to a Drudge linked YouTube challenging his pro-life credentials, but plenty of other conservative bloggers did including:

• The Corner's Kathryn Jean Lopez: "Some of it was not Fred at his best, but it can't really be that damning considered some of the YouTubes on his competition."
• Ankle Biting Pundit's Bull Dog Pundit: "Drudge has a big headline up about this YouTube video entitled "Pro-Choice Fred?", which purports to prove that Fred Thompson is pro-abortion. Yeah sure. Even by an amateur standard this video is so transparently lame and misleading as to be a joke."
• RedState's Alexham: "The many deficiencies in the video are self-evident, so there's no need to recount them here ... Update: It appears that Drudge is no longer linking to the video in question. Good for him."

Also fighting anti-Thompson memes, RCP Blog's Tom Bevan explains why he isn't buying into George Will's claims that Thompson is a "substance-free Republican flash in the pan." Bevan writes:

I remain unconvinced by such arguments, if only because the other top tier contenders in the Republican field continue to have major problems that, even though it remains early in the contest, they either haven't addressed or seem unable to put to rest. ... Thompson has his own issues with the base from a policy standpoint, though none of them appear to be hugely significant. Furthermore, personality is not an unimportant piece of the pie, and when you combine policy preferences with the kind of likable demeanor Thompson possesses, it naturally generates a level of comfort among Republican primary voters that few, if any, of the other top tier candidates can match.

F. THOMPSON II: 50 Million Reasons To Wait

SC's Daily Shot posts video of Thompson at 6/27's GOP luncheon in Columbia, SC, and comments: "He took on abortion right out of the blocks, in response to the heat that he has been taking from groups attacking his right flank. As he continues to move toward a candidacy, he will have to defend his record, just like the rest of the pack. Also, he was right the lucky SOB sure has saved himself 50 million by not getting in just yet."

Later, the Shot joins Marc Ambinder in speculating who will be Thompson's top SC consultant, concluding: "Ambinder seems to think that Walter Whetsell of Starboard Communications could be the guy after spotting him with an "I'm with Fred" button on at today's event. The question is; would that negate his lucrative contract with the "Ed in '08? Campaign? ...Well, that leaves Rod Shealy really. There aren't that many big guns out there who haven't signed on with a candidate already and Rod would be the biggest yet to pick a horse. Our guess is Rod will probably win the day if he so chooses. He has a hot hand right now and could help Thompson organize a decent grassroots game pretty quickly.

DEM FIELD: A Coulter Bounce?

Daily Kos' 6/27 straw poll showed John Edwards maintaining a strong lead over second place finisher Barack Obama (unlike the 6/13 MyDD straw poll which showed Edwards dropping 10 points after Edwards advisor David 'Mudcat' Sandersinsulted the netroots). DKos results include:

6/07 5/07
Edwards 40 39
Obama 22 24
Other 9 6
No F'ing Clue 7 7
H. Clinton 6 6
Richardson 5 8

DailyKos' founder Markos Moulitsas comments: "Not much analysis since I'm headed out of here in a few hours. But in short, the Gravel boomlet is over. Richardson continues to tank. He had his own serious boomlet here while his poll numbers were non existent. Now, as his candidacy gains steam in the early states, he fades here. I'm surprised Obama isn't doing better than this and I suspect his numbers will improve. Still, the Daily Kos primary is a two-man race."

CLINTON: Des Moines Or Bust?

Intent on stopping Hillary Clinton's coronation, MyDD's Big Tent Democrat looks at the most plausible ways she could be derailed. BTD believes Al Gore would have the best shot at beating HRC, but argues Gore would only do so after the MSM roundly concluded that Barack Obama and John Edwards had no chance of winning. BTD says no such MSM consensus would ever crystalize before IA, and that waiting till after IA would be too late for a Gore entry.

BTD concludes that the most realistic chance of knocking HRC out is for Obama and Edwards to finish in the top two in IA placing Clinton in a "crippling" 3rd: "It would take a miracle in New Hampshire for her to recover and I doubt there will be any miracles there. Clinton supporters are not deeply committed to her in my opinion. I actually think this is the most likely of the events that could happen to derail Hillary. ... Iowa is the key to the whole race. Hillary wins Iowa, the race is over."

DODD: Against Bikini Clad Models

Chris Dodd is receiving rave reviews for his use of YouTube's Spotlight series to urge voters, in TPM's Greg Sargent words, "to go and visit their Senators and Congressmen and ask them what they have to say about the Dodd amendment to the Defense Authorization bill." Firedoglake's Jane Hamsher comments: "Chris Dodd is using his to call bulls**t on the media's obsession with haircuts, bikini clad models and other fluff while people are dying and to promote the "Dodd Amendment" to end the war in Iraq. He's encouraging everyone to go pay a visit to your senator over the upcoming recess because they just don't seem to be getting the picture that the American people want out of Iraq."

Dodd also garnered praise for his speech to the Day Of Action To Restore Law and Justice. Firedoglake's Christy Hardin Smith blogs: "Standing up for the Constitution and the rule of law is a must to gain political support from folks in this country who are fed up with the Bush Administration's outright hostile treatment of the laws of this nation and their utter disregard for human rights."

EDWARDS: Against Dumb Trade

MyDD's okamichan13 rounded up highlights from an Elizabeth EdwardsDaily Kos liveblogging session including:

• On IA: "I don't take anything for granted. But I feel great about Iowa. They look for a candidate with a constellation of qualities: character, vision (as exhibited by fully formed ideas) and (because they are pragmatic) electability. John meets all their criteria and, in addition, he is well-liked in the state. The Iowa team has done a great job of organizing so we are ready. I am convinced John will win Iowa and the only question (which I do not know) is the percentage."
• On 'smart trade': "John opposed NAFTA (which was passed before he was in the Senate) and other trade bills that did not have a baseline of worker and environmental protections. He believes that all our trade agreements without these (which may be nearly all) need to be renegotiated and that no new trade agreements should be entered into that do not guarantee a reasonable (for each locality) wage, worker safety protections and environmental protections."
• On 'some in Congress not standing up to Bush': "It is disappointing. I don't know enough who to blame. We clearly need leadership. I spoke at a Rage for Justice dinner recently and that is what we need: leaders who will rage for justice. The Iraq vote was an example. Even those who voted the right way didn't exhibit the leadership we need right now. Silence, as MLK said, is betrayal."

At Firedoglake, Christy Hardin Smith reviews Edwards new NH ad: "Edwards uses a line from his stump speech that has resonated well with audiences: that it is time for the President of the United States to ask Americans to be patriotic about something other than war. It talks about lifting people up from poverty, and the fact that the most valuable asset in America is Americans themselves and what they can accomplish together. ... I think the Edwards folks were trying to go for that "morning in America" ad feel, but from a fresher take on how Americans need to pick up and take charge of the issues we face ourselves. A sort of "we're in this together" sort of theme."

IMMIGRATION: Eight Men In Or Out?

The Senate is voting on cloture as we got to deadline, but conservatives werecautiously optimistic heading into the vote. Blogger activism focussed on what The Corner's Kathryn Jean Lopez dubbed "The Amnesty Eight" which included: Sens. Kit Bond (R-MO); Sam Brownback (R-KS); Richard Burr (R-NC); Norm Coleman (R-MN); John Ensign (R-NV); Ben Nelson (D-NE); Mark Pryor (D-AR); and James Webb (D-VA).

Kausfiles forwards advice to bill opponents who can't get through to their Senator on busy phone lines: "Besides calling the senate office, folks should call the state chair and county chair of the senator's party. ... It would let the senator know that folks know how to do more than get riled up over an issue. Someone who tracks down his county chairman is a lot more likely to be a primary voter." Michelle Malkin posts video of Sen. Jeff Sessions (R-AL) telling Fox News: "Radio talk show hosts know more about this bill than most Senators, if you want to know the truth."

Finally Mark Levin pens a conservative response to the Wall Street Journal's scolding of "open borders" opponents. Levin blogs in part:

What drives the editorial writers at the Journal is their insatiable demand, on behalf of their advertisers, for sweat-shop conditions and slave wages. ... Since 1965, the government has promised the public border security in exchange for amnesty. Today's Journal writers aren't as honest as their predecessors. They deny this bill provides for amnesty. In the past, they would have proudly proclaimed it.

Today's Journal writers take refuge in the anonymity of the editorial page as they assassinate the character of those with whom they disagree. Apparently, those who insist on enforcing the law are racists. Those who insist that the government fulfill its obligation to secure the border and punish businesses that hire illegal aliens are anti-Hispanic.

The Journal writers are prodding Republicans to play ethnic politics. They argue that if the Republicans are viewed as anti-Hispanic, they will lose elections. Of course, the Journal writers are perpetuating that smear by assigning racist motives to opponents of the bill. But Republicans do best when they run on principle and act on principle. Unlike the Journal writers, I happen to believe that Hispanic Americans are motivated by the same principles as other Americans, including - liberty, security, the rule of law, capitalism, and faith.

HOUSE LANDSCAPE: Merry Q2 Charlie Brown

MyDD's Jonathan Singer urges readers to help Blue Majority ("this cycle's version of the Netroots Candidates list on Act Blue") close out a successful Q2. Singer pitches for "Al Wynn-foe Donna Edwards and soon-to-be John Doolittle-slayer Charlie Brown ... We are not making a huge ask today, but it's an important one. We're fast approaching the end of the second fundraising quarter -- all contributions need to be in by the end of the day on June 30 -- so we are asking folks to chip in $10 for Edwards and Brown, and we would like to see 100 new contributions for each of them by the end of the day Saturday."

NSA: Against Negotiated Settlement

The netroots have little faith in WH compliance with Senate Judiciary Cmt. subpoenas issued 6/27 for all documents related to the NSA's warrantless surveillance program. TPM's Spencer Ackerman blogs: "Circle July 18 on your calendars -- that's the compliance deadline. If it's not met, the committee will seek explanatory testimony from White House chief of staff Josh Bolton, Attorney General Alberto Gonzales, Cheney chief of staff David Addington, and National Security Counsel executive director V. Philip Lago."

Daily Kos' Kagro X lays out the options Dems have after the inevitable WH non-compliance: "1. Move to hold the targets of the subpoenas in statutory contempt of Congress; 2. Move to hold the targets in inherent contempt of Congress; 3. Extend the deadline for compliance and make threats regarding either #1 or #2 above; 4. Come to some negotiated settlement with the "administration" -- i.e., closed door, no transcript testimony, limited document release, etc.; 5. Do nothing, complain loudly about obstructionism, stonewalling, and lawlessness, and hope that voters elect Democrats in 2008, because Republicans are so nasty; and 6. Ask the House to impeach."

Kagro bets the Dems will go with negotiated settlement but then makes the case for impeachment. The Left Coaster's Steve Soto adds: "Democrats in Congress need to get over the fantasy that they can negotiate a solution with this White House. The Bush Administration will reject the subpoenas on grounds of executive privilege and force the Democrats to take this to court. Do it now, so that the rest of Bush's agenda and his remaining time in office are spent in a turf war brought on by his criminal Vice President. Make the administration justify to the American people why Dick Cheney should be above the law and free from public scrutiny."

THOUGHT OF THE DAY: Let The Sunshine In

The Corner's Stanley Kurtz waxes on the effect blogs have had on the immigration bill:

The Internet was critical to the immigration bill's first failure. If not for the blogs, the bill's deceits and flaws would not have been so well or quickly exposed, and "comprehensive reform" would probably otherwise have passed within a couple of days. Now we're at yet another new level. The public is being exposed to a basket of legislative tricks-of a sort that are rare in any case, and surely of a kind that have never been subjected to mass and rapid-fire public exposure. The undemocratic character of all that is happening here is being conveyed to the public in short order and with clarity-often through the medium of Senate aides themselves.

LEST WE FORGET: We Thought Graham Was Against Torture

The Corner's Rich Lowry and Jonah Goldberg take turns mocking the pointlessly punitive measures Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) kept attaching to the "Grand Compromise" in misguided hopes of convincing conservatives his immigration bill was tough on border enforcement. Lowry faux-reports:

Now, instead of merely requiring a "touchback" from heads-of-households to apply for a Z-visa, the heads-of-households will have to head back to their home country for the "touchback" in chains, accompanied by a federal marshall. "We're going frog-march the bastards back to Mexico," Graham said in a written statement, vowing never, ever to support any amnesty legislation that doesn't include this measure that he calls "essential to the nation's security" and "important to the cause of providing the most humiliating and symbolically tough path to amnesty and citizenship as possible."

Goldberg adds:

I have it on good authority that Graham had to be "walked back" from his preferred "Yakuza model" before he would even agree to this latest "touchback-plus-plus-plus-plus" as some on the Hill are calling it. Graham had originally suggested that, like a failed Yakuza gangster, illegal immigrants would have to remove one finger, at the knuckle, for every year they stayed here illegally before they even left in chains for their home countries.

Posted by Conn Carroll at June 28, 2007 12:34 PM