June 14, 2007

6/14: If Not Now, When?

After noting that "current national polling of presidential preferences for 2008" show Hillary Clinton will likely be the nominee, Talk Left's Big Tent Democrat blogs: "Horserace blogging on the Presidential election may be fun, but it is completely nonserious and not based on anything. And it will continue to be so until about a couple of months before the Iowa caucuses." In a not-completely-unrelated post, MyDD's Matt Stoller writes: "I'm beginning to think that progressives might have to embrace a different strategy than to hope that we get a progressive in the 2008 race, and work to build the machinery for a progressive primary challenge in 2012 against a sitting Democratic President."

Reading these posts (and many others), it appears that many in the netroots have resigned themselves to a Clinton presidency despite a clear understanding in the community that she does not share their policy position on Iraq. While they berate Dems in Congress for not doing more to end the war, are the netroots doing enough to make sure the next WH occupant will? If now isn't the time to use netroots power to push an HRC alternative, when is? If the netroots waits til IA for a U.S. out-of-Iraq candidate to emerge, they just might have to wait til '12 before they have a real chance to affect policy again.

DEM FIELD: A Mudcat Bounce?

Coming the day after John Edwards aide David 'Mudcat' Sanders insulted the community, MyDD's 6/07 straw poll shows a sharp decline in support for Edwards. However, no one candidate picked up many of Edwards' disaffected supporters: 6/07 and 5/07 results include:

6/07 5/07
Barack Obama 33% 31%
John Edwards 31% 41%
Bill Richardson 13% 10%
Hillary Clinton 6% 5%
Chris Dodd 3% 2%

OBAMA: So Many Wankers, So Little Time

Barack Obama general counsel Robert Bauer did not make positive inroads to netroots communities with his Huffington Post "Progressive Case for a Libby Pardon." Bauer blogged: "President Clinton's pardons included one granted to a farmer convicted of perjury in a bankruptcy proceeding. ... Is the difference one of station in life, the difference between the Chief of Staff to the Vice President and a hog farmer? ... But if the President pardons Libby, and by this act makes the case his own, he will have picked up a portion of the cost. Libby will fall back, restored to obscurity. Bush will step forward and take the lead role. He will have to explain himself; he will have to answer questions."

Reactions include:

• MyDD's Matt Stoller: "Were I an Obama supporter, I might hope that Bauer be kept away from anything sharp, heavy machinery, toys that look edible, and/or Obama himself."
• MyDD's George P: "This plays right into the argument many hard-core Democrats have with Obama that he is getting too chummy with Republicans. ... We simply CAN'T play nice with them all the time. They are the "common enemy," not partners in government."
• Jane Hamsher at firedoglake: "So are we to accept that the General Counsel for the Obama campaign stepped out on his own in such a high profile way with such a hot button issue and the candidate had no knowledge of it? ... I like and respect Senator Obama and think he's done some very smart things, but the role of General Counsel is not an inconsequential one."
• Christy Hardin Smith at firedoglake: "It also raises some interesting questions in terms of what he expects if Obama wins the campaign. Last I checked, people who work on campaigns generally hope to gain a position in a subsequent administration if their candidate wins in a whole lot of cases. If Mr. Bauer thinks that the rule of law is malleable in terms of politically expedient questions of the moment, then we ought to be asking the questions now rather than in a confirmation hearing later, don't you think?"

Many took on the merits of Bauer's case including Scott Lemieux, Jeff Lomonaco, Ezra Klein, Digby, Matthew Yglesias, and Talk Left's Big Tent Democrat.

The Plank's Jason Zengerle observes: "But hey, give the Obama campaign credit. While it took Mudcat a whole eight hours to apologize, the Obama campaign managed to disassociate itself from Bauer's remarks a mere 97 minutes after they received the scarlet W."

OBAMA II: Like Moths To A Flame

Linking to Ramesh Ponnuru's questioning of him on Bloggingheads.tvMatthew Yglesias explains why he believes Obama would have a more progressive foreign policy despite Obama's recent votes and foreign policy speeches mostly matching Hillary Clinton's:

As I said to Ramesh it's my sense that Barack Obama would probably appoint a sounder team, but I've found it difficult to articulate what's driving that sense. ... Basically, left-of-center foreign policy professionals who opposed the Iraq War felt very alienated by the party leadership's embrace of the war back in 2002-2003. Since Obama opposed the war, and since Obama entered the Senate as a celebrity figure interested in foreign policy, those people have tended to cluster around him. Conversely, the left-of-center foreign policy professionals who won the argument in 2002-2003 tend to find themselves in Clinton's orbit and see boat-rocking as a bad thing.

OBAMA III: We Gotta Crush On Obamagirl

The Huffington Post's Karen Russell flags Jake Tapper's back story on a new Obama fan YouTube titled "I Got A Crush.... On Obama." Tapper caught up with the video's 32-year-old Wharton grad producer Ben Relles who also received notoriety for his female POV take on SNL's "dick in a box" skit. Relles, a fan of Obama, claims not to have produced the video for profit, but is selling "Obamagirl" and "I Got a Crush on Obama" t-shirts.

Russell asks: "If you are running for President, how do you respond intelligently and effectively to "tribute videos and ads" like the new risque "I Got A Crush.... On Obama" video? Should a campaign always distance itself from these types of ads or videos? Is "no comment" and "we didn't do it" the only viable responses to voter generated ads?"

OBAMA IV: Don't Stop Believing

TAPPED's Garance Franke-Ruta promotes Obama's recent voter registration and voter contact drive in NH, SC, and IA. GFR blogs: "Now the Obama campaign has posted videos of some of those campaign events, and they have a quality about them that's different from the usual highly-edited, highly-scripted campaign videos that makes them quite charming. ... For all the cynicism we have about politics and politicians, it's also worth recalling the optimism of true believers."

GOP FIELD: Confessions Of A Sausage Maker

Ex-Pres. Bush speechwriter Michael Gerson's 6/13 op-ed admonishing GOPers for abandoning the center was not well received by conservatives. Reactions include:

• The Corner's Ramesh Ponnuru: "If he wants to make the case that it is a mistake for conservatives to abandon Bushism , which is to say Gersonism, he ought at least to grapple with the reasons that they're doing it. It isn't as though this presidency has been such a huge success that this behavior is mystifying."
• The Corner's Jonah Goldberg: "As someone who has argued for years that compassionate conservatism is the Republican version of Clintonism, not the conservative alternative to it, it's wonderful to hear someone who helped make the sausage admit it."
• The Corner's John Podhoretz: "[W]hatever the merits or lack thereof when it comes to "compassionate conservatism," the central point is this: The slogan and the idea were brought into being explicitly to separate Bush from Gingrich-ism, Dole-ism, and what might be called Bork-ism. ... My guess, though, is that, as is always the case, Republicans are going to have to go a little mushy to soften their hard edges and Democrats are going to have to play tough to prove they're not wimps afraid of power."
• Power Line's Paul Mirengoff: "I think Gerson is wrong when he claims that in this cycle no major candidate is reaching towards the middle, and that all of them are simply drifting with the hard-line current of their party. ... Giuliani is running unapologetically against Republican party orthodoxy on several key social issues, most notably abortion. McCain continues to be a maverick when it comes to immigration, campaign finance reform, and terrorist rights. Both have clear centrist tendencies."
• AmSpec Blog's James Antle: "If all of Michael Gerson's Washington Post columns are going to be about how Republicans aren't enough like his ex-boss, they are going to get old pretty fast."

MCCAIN: The Next Dick Gephardt?

Conservatives and other observers are interpreting John McCain's latest YouTube attack on Mitt Romney over abortion as the last acts of a desperate campaign:

• The Corner's Rich Lowry: "Another sign of McCain's extraordinary descent so far in this race is that he has been reduced to frontally attacking Romney in June!"
• Ace of Spades: "I'm not sure how on earth this is supposed to work -- if he destroys Romney, Romney's more social-con constituency moves to... McCain? Why wouldn't they go to the more reliably conservative Thompson?"
• Kausfiles: "I don't quite understand why John McCain is picking a fight with Mitt Romney, given that there are two other GOP contenders who poll better than Romney nationally. Won't this tactic do for McCain what attacking Howard Dean did for Dick Gephardt?"
• The Huffington Post's Thomas Edsall: "If the tactic fails, the McCain campaign may be effectively over."
• The Brody File: "McCain and Romney have become like Luke and Laura from General Hospital after a big argument. Keep checking back here for more episodes."

ROMNEY: At Least He's Consistent On Amnesty

The Brody File is a big fan is Mitt Romney's recently unveiled National Faith and Values Steering Committee: "Mitt Romney has done it again. When it comes to assembling a top notch team, he always seems to knock it out of the park. ... When you go down the list, it really is a very impressive list. He has some of the top social conservatives in the country behind him and that will help immensely as these leaders spread the word about Romney's conservative values."

In not-so-positive Romney blogging, The Corner's Kate O'Beirne in unnerved by APreports that Romney refused to pardon an Iraq war veteran whose conviction, at the age of 13, for shooting a another boy with a BB gun prevented him from qualifying for the police force.

MyManMitt, however, has computer models that show Romney is a shoe in for the nomination.

F. THOMPSON: Twitter Our Hearts

Fred Thompson's new web team continues to roll out all the latest bells and whistles for their new client. Townhall's Matt Lewis details Thompson's new blog 'The Fred File', a MySpace page, a Facebook page, a YouTube channel, and of course, a Twitter channel.

Mitt Romney fan Dean Barnett is not impressed and blogs at Townhall: "A blog? Is that one of those web log thingies I've heard so much about? Surely you jest. ... Every move that Fred makes is for the moment being universally hailed as genius. But he has feet of clay like every politician. The bar is getting raised so high, it's going to be impossible for him to get those clay feet over it."

Townhall's Mary Katharine Ham defends Thompson: "True, campaign blogs, Facebook and MySpace pages are pretty standard practice... But all I know is I had a Twitter friend request from Fred Thompson less than 6 hours after his team announced their online efforts had officially kicked off, which is more than I've had from any other Republican presidential campaign in that particular milieu. ... So, yeah, I'm with Matt."

NRO's Jim Geraghty also argues Team Fred is a cut above the field in the tech department: "Okay, let me observe one example of how Team Fred might be a bit sharper than the average GOP campaign. Recently Michael Moore issued his debate challenge to Fred Thompson on Drudge, and within a few hours, Thompson had his cinematic, cigar-chomping "mental institution, Michael... Something to think about" video response up on Breitbart (which Drudge linked to immediately)."

Also in multi-media Thompson land, The Corner's Peter Robinson links to video of Thompson at Hoover Institution and adds: "In this, my first encounter with Thompson, I was hugely impressed-hugely. He proved relaxed, likeable, determined, warm, funny, and-a trait not always seen in candidates for high office-humble."

F. THOMPSON II: We've Only Just Begun

The promised Thompson oppo research is beginning to filter into conservative circles. The Brody File posts a '96 Thompson Tennesseans for Choice questionnaire including this response on Thompson's 'personal philosophy' on abortion: "The Supreme Court has attempted to delineate the constitutionally appropriate roles for individual and governmental decision-making on the issue of abortion. Beyond that, I believe that the federal government should not interfere with individual convictions and actions in this area."

The dumping campaign tells Brody: "It's notable that in the entire questionnaire he never once says he's pro-life or says what he thinks about Roe."

At the NY Sun, Ryan Sager shares details from Thompson efforts to poach John McCain fundraisers: "In a telephone interview ... the source says that he has personally received two phone calls from Thompson associates, one months ago and one in the last week or so, and that several other major donors have received similar calls. ... The McCain donor said that the calls did not badmouth Mr. McCain, but that they did point out the obvious: that the Arizona senator has not caught on with conservatives."

IRAQ: Wait Til Next Cycle?

Linking to reports Hillary Clinton expects U.S. troops in Iraq throughout her Administration, MyDD's Matt Stoller blogs: "Atrios, and Kevin Drum think that the residual force idea is a bad one. It would be nice if one of the major candidates would actually point out that Clinton does not actually intend to end the occupation of Iraq by American troops. ... I'm beginning to think that progressives might have to embrace a different strategy than to hope that we get a progressive in the 2008 race, and work to build the machinery for a progressive primary challenge in 2012 against a sitting Democratic President. That way, regardless of which Democrat becomes President, they will automatically weaken their position if they don't withdraw troops, and strengthen it if they do end the occupation."

The netroots are also increasingly unhappy with the Senate's resolve to end the war in Iraq before '09. Daily Kos' mcjoan blogs about Maj. Leader Harry Reid's (D-NV) four pronged approach to the '08 DoD authorization bill: "Reid acknowledged the role the blogs have played in driving the Iraq debate in a press conference following the call, and also noted that leadership made mistakes in the supplemental fight. ... Reid and his caucus need to understand that it's not just the bloggers' disappointment they are feeling--it's felt by each and every voter who voted for an end to the Iraq war last November. That's reflected in the series of new polls we've seen over the last week, including an LA Times/Bloomberg poll released yesterday that shows public approval of Congress the lowest level in over a decade."

Talk Left's Big Tent Democrat adds: "Democrats need to face this reality - the "expectations" are that they will do everything possible to end the Debacle. If they do not try to end it, they will suffer consequences."

IMMIGRATION: Do It For McCain

Right Wing News' Senate insider has ominous news for conservative opponents of the immigration bill: "First off, it does look like the Senate immigration bill is coming back. The conventional wisdom seems to be that it's going to be brought up right before the July 4th break, so that the Senate Republican leadership can try to use that as leverage to get votes." More from RWN:

[T]the conservative leaders of the anti-amnesty movement are refusing to cooperate, and won't give Mitch McConnell a list of amendments that they want considered. My source tells me that the reason for this is that the game has now been rigged. McConnell is essentially promising to bring the amendments up in exchange for cloture votes, but he's publicly saying that they will strip any problematic amendments out in committee.

I asked my source to speculate on why [Trent] Lott was pushing so hard, and he said that Lott may be naive enough to think that this bill might help John McCain's presidential campaign. ... In addition, he told me that he thinks a lot of these Senators have "drunk the DC Kool-Aid", and believe that they're better off passing a bad bill, even one that won't ultimately become law if, as expected, the House kills it, so that they can at least tell the voters in 2008 that they did something about immigration.

At Slate, Kausfiles tackles the latest MSM poll showing a majority of Americans approve "a path to citizenship" noting the LA Times skillfull use of "start" and "path" in their latest question on the subject. Kaus links to Rasmussen explanation of why MSM polling on the issue is still compatible with his showing strong majorities of Americans oppose the Senate bill: " he thinks the public is in fact willing to accept "paths to citizenship" as part of a compromise that would also secure the borders. But the public thinks the Senate bill won't secure the borders." Finally kaus observes: "The LAT could have countered Rasmussen by asking voters what they thought about the actual bill. They didn't. Why take chances?

On the left, The Huffington Post's Rick Jacobs announces he will be riding "The Dreams Across America Tour" train crossing the country to "dispel myths, give real facts, and shares personal stories about the need for just and humane immigration reform in this country." Jacobs explains his vision of a better immigration policy: "When there are strong economic imbalances, such as we now have with the less than perfect trade agreements that are in place with Mexico and other countries, we export poverty while magnetically pulling workers north. So rather than address what is an essential flaw in policy and law, our government dithers while families and businesses ... suffer."

THOUGHT OF THE DAY: Professionalizing Progressive Politics

In These TimesAdam Doster reports that 'When College Ends, So Does Activism':

Because of the growing cost of college, these tiring, low-paying gigs or unpaid internships are increasingly inadequate options for left-leaning graduates. With state and federal legislators redirecting funds away from universities, college tuition has outpaced family income for the past 15 years and inflation for the past 30 years.

The importance of engaging and gainfully employing young progressives is hard to overstate, both for its immediate practicality and the long-term sustainability of the left. By ignoring progressive grads' economic constraints, the progressive movement-activists and funders-are squandering an immense opportunity to utilize the ideology, size and energy of the post-graduate generation. ... One remedy for this crisis is the professionalization of progressive politics. If legislators won't find ways to ease the financial burden hampering young folks, politically engaged graduates, eager to work full-time for social change, should be given the opportunity to provide for their economic needs in the same way as their colleagues in the private sector.

LEST WE FORGET: Communism Works!

Cracked.com shares the important lessons we should have learned from some of our favorite cartoons:

• The Smurfs ... LESSON: Communism works! For naysayers who point to the Former Soviet Union as proof that communism is inherently flawed, may we merely direct your attention to Smurf Village, where everyone shares everything, wears similar utilitarian clothing, battles Gargamel and his turn-Smurfs-to-gold get rich quick schemes and obeys the dictates of a bearded, red hat-wearing, benevolent authority figure. Quoth Comrade Papa: "From each according to his abilities, to each according to his needs." Really, he actually said that.
• G.I. Joe ... LESSON: Knowing is half the battle. The other half of the battle is kicking Cobra's terrorist ass. And with the coolest soldier codenames ever --Snake Eyes, Duke, Lady Jaye, Shipwreck-- winning the war on terror should be no problem. Good will always win out over evil, because good guys work together (Team Work! Cooperation!), while bad guys are ruthless cowards who turn tail and run whenever G.I. Joe's laser guns get to zappin'. As Sergeant Slaughter once said: "Our enemies are innovative and resourceful, and so are we. They never stop thinking about new ways to harm our country and our people and neither do we." Now that's some good strategery.
• He-Man ... LESSON: It's OK to be gay. Look at this guy: golden locks cut in a tasteful bob, buff biceps, tanned, toned, hairless torso, a magic sword and most importantly, fabulous powers. What's more, He-Man invites his handsome friends, the Masters of the Universe, to come hang out in his castle anytime. Of course Skeletor and his fugly cohorts are never allowed access to the secrets of He-Man's dark, dry palace. Yes, we had He-Man toys, like Ram-Man, Trap-Jaw and even Castle Grayskull. We also had a favorite pair of tighty whiteys that had He-Man on one cheek and Skeletor on the other, battling over our asshole. But did merely owning and wearing that underwear make us gay?

Posted by Conn Carroll at June 14, 2007 12:38 PM