June 29, 2007

6/29: The Inevitability Is Back (If It Ever Really Left)

We understand that IA is still more than six months away, and that it is hard to attack an opponent in your own party, but John Edwards and Barack Obama are going to have to change their debate strategies in some way if they ever plan to cut into Hillary Clinton's lead. There is, perhaps, no more primed an audience than the netroots to jump on HRC for a slip up, or latch onto a stellar non-HRC performance than the netroots, but so far after every debate the story is always the same: Hillary looked strong, smart, and confident, and since there are no real policy differences between the candidates, Hillary would represent the party just fine. Do the Obama and Edwards camps really want these impressions solidifying in the MSM and the netroots?

DEM DEBATE: Another Debate, Another Clinton Win

While not normally representative of consensus netroots opinion, The Plank's Michael Crowley's overall all impression of 6/29's All American Presidential Forum closely mirrored online opinion: "Once again I found myself thinking that Hillary Clinton is on track to be the next president, and that Barack Obama always slightly unsatisfying in the shadow of his amazing 2004 Democratic convention speech." As in all previous Dem debates, a Daily Kos straw poll found John Edwards to be the winner of the debate (with 27%) while significantly underperforming his regular straw poll number (40%). Again, HRC's debate win total more than double her normal straw poll results (17% v 6%).

Reactions to the performances of non-big three candidates includes:

• Jack and Jill Politics' Jill Tubman: "Biden, Richardson and Dodd - sadly weak. Richardson seemed quite unprepared to discuss HIV/AIDS which was odd. Did no one tell him this is a big deal for African-Americans? Gravel played his usual role saying what no one else has the courage to say. I love that guy. ... Kucinich did very well. He's always been the sleeper candidate. The crowd loved his answers. The big three candidates would do well to pay attention to why people like him -- he talks about the things people care about in ways that are compelling, down-to-earth and stunningly sensible."
• Daily Kos' Betsy McCall: "Kucinich is most necessary to keep the debate focused on real problems we're dealing with now. Without him, Dems would ignore Iraq, health care reform and the illegal acts of the Bush administration."
• Oliver Willis: "It should be noted for the record that Dennis Kucinich is the only candidate who came by the bloggers to press the flesh, along with his wife Elizabeth who positively towers over him. ... The handlers Mike Gravel had around him were just the kind of guys you would think would follow Mike Gravel around. A little... off."

DEBATE CLINTON: Steady As She Goes

Daily Kos and MyDD comments regarding Hillary Clinton's performance included:

• from MyDD: "I stood up and clapped for my sister, yes my white sister, when she said if it was WHITE WOMEN with AIDS it would be an outcry. DAMN RIGHT."
• from Daily Kos: "It's going to take something big to stop Sen. Clinton, she knows her stuff and is getting better and better at the whole debating thing."
• from MyDD: "Clinton is just too damn good in these things. Second place to Obama and Edwards. Dodd gets 3rd."
• from Daily Kos: "The crowd gave a roar of approval for Hillary, the Clintons have been great friends for black Americans for years and many of the women in the crowd applauded too. Also it's obvious that there is crowd support for Obama but let's face it, black Americans can't go wrong with any of these candidates!"
• from MyDD: "She did very well but she did not "dominate" this debate, as she did the last one. She knows how to effectively deliver one-liners."

Non MyDD/dKos reax include:

• Oliver Willis: "If there's a winner so far it's HRC. But its kind of like Martyball - you hold the ball when you have the lead and don't make any sudden moves."
• Skeptical Brotha: "First question: Does race matter as it did for Du Bois at the beginning of the 20th century? Hillary-strong. Obama-weak."
• Jack and Jill Politics: "I am not sure if there were any big winners. Clinton in particular did not receive the love that her husband would have had he been there and she would have been smart to bring him. Her answers were well-received in general and I particularly appreciated her take on AIDS and its impact on African-American women which received a standing ovation from some black female attendees."
• The Washington Monthly's Steve Benen: "I didn't see any campaign-changing moments, though Hillary Clinton just about brought the house down when she said AIDS would be a higher national priority if it were the number one killer of white women ages 25 to 34. (The comment drew the loudest, most sustained applause of the night.)"

DEBATE EDWARDS: Is It Too Late To Make Elizabeth The Candidate?

John Edwards did nothing to sink him among netrooters watching the debate, but he did not 'wow' many of them either. Daily Kos commentator reax include:

• Miss Laura: "I thought Edwards was really underwhelming the first debates, and is doing better tonight. But I guess that makes sense, since this has been much more domestic policy oriented, more open to his key issues being raised."
• GU Dems: "Edwards has been totally forgettable and said nothing really exciting or new."
• America 08: "Edwards answers best and complete, the Debate moving along. Eliminate all tax breaks for companies taking jobs off shore! YEA!!!!!"
• TJB: "Already leaning Edwards and I thought he showed a very strong grasp of the issues tonight. This debate certainly did him no harm and he quite likely will be helped."
• Diana in NoVa: "Edwards...I still can't warm up to him. Don't know why. Wish I could vote for Elizabeth."

Also from Jack and Jill Politics Tubman: "Edwards did very well in most of his answers and I was certainly impressed at his thoughtful, practical and on-point responses. The Edwards campaign reached out to me and sent me a document with his answers to the Covenant for Black America best-selling book."

DEBATE OBAMA: Too Bill Cosby

Non-MyDD/Daily Kos takes on Barack Obama's effort include:

• Oliver Willis: "Obama discusses homophobia with black America. He's the only one I think who can be critical of black America's problems, and I'm glad he's doing it rather than mindless boosterism."
• BlakProf's Sherrilyn Ifill: "[Dr. Michael Eric] Dyson, clearly is feelin' Obama. When asked by columnist Clarence Page to react to the fact that Hillary Clinton seemed to get the biggest applause of the night, Dyson said slowly, "Hillary is extremely poised and practiced." ... I asked him whether he felt that Obama was coming up on a Cosby moment when he started talking about "valuing achievement." He was candid. Say yes, he was concerned about where Obama was going, but felt that Obama is willing 'to work on social construction.'"
• Pam's House Blend: "Obama's short, but powerful statement on black homophobia is one that none of the other candidates mentioned. Is this a surprise? No. ... The candidates fear perceptions of a paternalistic white finger being waved at the community will result in blowback from black voters."
• Jack and Jill Politics Tubman: "He did so well in tapping his fingers on the touchstones of our culture in thanking Howard, its president, Thurgood Marshall, the Covenant with Black America authors, etc. He referenced history and put himself in that context. ... Still that early advantage was eroded with overall lackluster answers. He was fine, but I can't think of many standout moments where he electrified the audience. I'm so proud of him - it's true. But I can't help but expect more from him."

Dkos/MyDD reactions include:

• from Daily Kos: "I've been leaning Obama, but I wish his answers were as polished as Mrs. Clinton's."
• from MyDD: "Ok, this is the 4th time Obama and Edwards have agreed. Maybe y'all can take a hint and quit flaming and troll rating each other."
• from Daily Kos: "Obama was very good and he looks good and he connects well. He's certainly at the top of my list...but I still wish we'd hear more solid proposals."
• from MyDD: "But as someone who was already leaning Obama, I have to say he continued to impress and build upon his last debate performance. Obama looked presidential. He was thoughtful and concise. I think he has developed a lot more gravitas and with this debate has continued to show he can stand with the big boys."
• from Daily Kos: "Obama Is Sounding Very Bill Cosby-ish I expected better."

CLINTON: She Probably Really Does Like Celine Dionne

Catching a CNN segment entitles "Bill Clinton Factor: Campaign Asset or Liability?" Atrios responds: "Only to the Drudge-addled brains of our elite press corps would this question even occur. ... Bill Clinton is probably the most popular man in the country. The 90s were a period of growth, optimism, wage growth across the board, declining unemployment and declining poverty. America got its groove back. Like the guy or not, the idea that he'd be anything but an asset for Hillary Clinton is absurd."

Upset that Clinton's YouTube theme song contest contributed to the "trivialization of politics," MyDD's Matt Stoller posts a new YouTube mocking HRC and comments: "It does capture Hillary Clinton, who probably really does like Celine Dionne, Hallmark cards, and casserole."

Back in IA, Bleeding Heartland is not upset by recent stories on the polling practices of Team Clinton: "There have been some claims that Hillary Clinton is "push-polling" against her main rivals, Barack Obama and John Edwards in Iowa and New Hampshire. Her campaign appears to have commissioned some detailed message testing in both states. That is different from a sleazy push-poll (such as what Bush did to McCain in South Carolina in 2000, having people call up voters asking if it would change their opinion if they knew that McCain had an illegitimate black child). I don't have a problem with message testing ... I do think it's sleazy for Democrats to attack each other using right-wing talking points, but I don't blame campaigns for wanting to know which messages are going to be effective for and against them."

DODD: That's Him In The Spotlight

DailyKos' founder Markos Moulitsas is yet another fan of Chirs Dodd's use of YouTube's spotlight series to try an end the Iraq War: "Yes, it's a campaign tactic. But Chris Dodd's use of his YouTube spotlight is the kind of campaigning I personally want to see. ... That's leadership."

OBAMA: The $37M Man

Reactions to Barack Obama's goal of 250k donors by 6/30 include:

• MyDD's Jonathan Singer: "Obviously, the comparison to [Howard] Dean isn't a perfect one. Voters overall are significantly more engaged in the presidential race at this point than they were at the same point last cycle, and Obama already has a much higher profile within the media, and thus the primary electorate, than did Dean. That said, 250,000 people is a lot people, and you can't underscore that fact."
• MyDD's Obama08: "When you crunch those numbers that means that he has recruited an average of over 1,380 new donors EVERY DAY this year. Impressive you say. Now we look a little deeper and remember that he had over 100,000 donors in the first quarter, meaning that there will be about 150,000 new unique voters this quarter. That means that he will have recruited about 1,650 donors a day throughout this quarter, that is nearly unbelievable. I don't care whether you call it a movement or not, moving that many people to donate on a daily basis is incredible."
• TAPPED's Garance Franke-Ruta: "Let's do some back-of-the-envelope math here, shall we? Last quarter, Obama brought in $25.7 million from 104,000 donors. This time around, he is shooting for 250,000 donors (his campaign currently reports 245,272). Even assuming that all Obama's second-quarter growth was from low-dollar donors (an assumption that's almost certainly incorrect), I don't see how this adds up to less than $37 million."

In less positive Obama blogging, The Left Coaster's Steve Soto notes Obama's opposition to an impeachment of Pres. Bush or VP Cheney and blogs: "Gee, thanks for that window into your judgment Senator."

BROWNBACK: The Yellowbrick Road Hits A 'Switchback'

One might think it was impossible to vote against the Senate immigration bill and yet still comes out a bigger political loser on the issue than John McCain, and yet Sam Brownback's 'yea' to 'no' vote switch accomplished just that. Hot Air's Allahpundit describes the scene:

Say, how come there are 47 yes votes when the roll says there were only 46? Ah, my friends, that's because Sam Brownback turned out to be the weaseliest "no" vote of all. He voted yes right at the very beginning, during the alphabetical vote, probably thinking that cloture was going to pass. Then, when it died, he switched to a no. I almost wish he was pulling more than 1% in the presidential polls so we could hammer him into oblivion with that. As it is, I've captured his moment of shame for posterity on video. I think that's him in the red circle; you'll see him gesture to the clerk just before she announces his deep, principled opposition to amnesty.

NRO's Jim Geraghty posted Brownback's official "I wanted to signal that I am supportive of comprehensive immigration reform, but that now is not the time and this is not the bill" explanation, but no one was buying it. Reactions include:

• Michelle Malkin: "Bryan and I cooked up another Kaus-inspired shamnesty Hot Air ad just for Senator Switchback."
• more Geraghty: "It's a shame that he's named Brownback, since the "Switchback" nickname is going to stick."
• The Corner's Rich Lowry: "Brownback Voted "Yes"...as far as I'm concerned. The way the game is played is that you vote "yes" if they need your vote, and then when it becomes clear that it's failing, you become a "no." Now, if the campaign's (hard-to-believe-verging-on-laughable) explanation is true that this was a deliberate strategy on his part to vote first "yes" and then "no," well, then, he's badly in need of better political advice and you have to question his judgment for going along with it."
• The Corner's Kathryn Jean Lopez: "He Voted For It Before He Voted Against It. Ouch."
• Ace of Spades posts a mock inspirational poster with Brownback's picture and the caption: "Courage: The bravery to choose the unpopular path - and then choose the other path, once you realize just how unpopular it is. Oh Well! That's why god gave pencils erasers!"

GIULIANI: Copying The Terminator Will Get You Terminated

Captain's Quarters links to a NY Sunarticle reporting "Mayor [Rudy] Giuliani is telling California voters wondering what kind of president he would make that they need to look no further than their popular Republican governor, Arnold Schwarzenegger," and warns: "Arnold has done very well for himself in California, but no one confuses him with a conservative, not even the state's GOP. ... In California, as in New York City, that's the only kind of Republican that can get elected to an executive office. That doesn't mean that the rest of the Republicans around the country want to elect them, however, and Rudy may be making a mistake by reinforcing the impression that he's so far out of step with conservatives in the party. He could find himself positioned well for a general election that he'll never reach."

MCCAIN: Not Dead Yet

AmSpec Blog's Philip Klein makes the case the defeat of the immigration bill is the best possible outcome for John McCain's WH hopes: "Over the next few months, the level of anger people have toward this immigration legislation will lose intensity as long as it remains dead. By the fall most of the attention will be focused on Iraq, an issue on which McCain will again take a courageous stand--only this time he'll be on the same side as the conservative base. While I still think that McCain has alienated too many conservatives since 1999 to capture the nomination, now that the immigration bill was defeated, I think his longevity has increased dramatically."

Townhall's Dean Barnett agrees that nothing can change the fate of McCain's campaign: "And regardless of what Mort Kondracke or McCain's other friends in the media believe, the base's disdain for McCain does not primarily derive from personal animus. Instead, that disdain flows directly from the fact that John McCain has been a more damaging presence in the Senate over the past six years than anyone else - Tom Daschle, Ted Kennedy and Harry Reid included. ... Yes, he's right on the war, but a lot of senators are right on the war. But McCain has been so wrong and so destructive on so many other issues, his relationship with the base is fractured beyond repair."

ROMNEY: Not Getting PETA's Endorsement

All the rage in more lefty circles, the Boston Globe's account of Mitt Romney strapping the family dog's carrier onto the family car's roof for a 12 hour drive to Ontario, CA, is beginning to penetrate conservative sites. NY Sun's Ryan Sager links to Swampland's post and comments: "I'm no dog lover (I've thought of running for mayor on a "Dog Free NYC" platform), but some people like the disgusting little beasts. For any of those people considering voting for Mitt Romney, read this."

Also in anti-Romney blogging, Outside the Beltway's Alex Knapp links to a Reasonstory looking at a civil suit against Romney UT finance co-chair Robert Lichfield which claim one of the "various business entities" he is involved in locked teens in outdoor dog cages and exercised them to exhaustion. Knapp comments: "While it's certainly true that people should be considered innocent until proven guilty ... common sense would seem to dictate that a presidential candidate might refrain from hiring people accused of child abuse and molestation pending the outcome any criminal investigation or civil lawsuit."

THOMPSON: Finally, A Non-Reagan Comparison

The Corner's Jonah Goldberg notes: "that if Fred Thompson becomes president he'll be the first bald Commander-in-Chief since Ike. ... CORRECTION! Yikes! Sorry, I should have said first follically challenged candidate to be ELECTED president since Ike. Which was the whole point. Woops."

TERROR POLITICS: Dems Want Dems In Charge Of War

Many in the netroots are flagging Eric Kleefeld's catch in the internals of Fox News latest poll. At TPM Cafe Kleefeld quotes from Q24 on the survey: "If there is an all-out war between the United States and various radical Muslim groups worldwide, who would you rather have in charge - Democrats or Republicans?" 41% of respondents chose Dems, while only 38% chose GOPers.

Kleefeld comments: "Granted, the result is within the poll's three-point margin of error, so we can't say with certainty that the Dems have a lead here. But really, this bespeaks truly terrible times for the GOP. The question of which party the people would trust more to lead World War III against a global coalition of Islamofascists should have been a gimme for the Republicans. But they couldn't even manage to get a plurality. Pathetic."

TERROR POLITICS II: On Sneezes And Condoms

The fight over the Foreign Ops App bill is allowing some netrooters to question how closely AIPAC wants to be associated with the GOP. A Dem amendment to the Mexico City policy has GOPers threatening to block the bill to which TPM Cafe's Daniel Levy blogs: "The episode speaks volumes about how far AIPAC has positioned itself in the Republican camp, how deeply in denial the Democrats are of this fact, and how deliciously divorced from Israeli reality the American political debate is."

TAPPED's Ezra Klein adds: "AIPAC, of course, will generally go after Congressmen for taking precious seconds to sneeze when they should be whipping support for this or that pro-Israel bill. They allow absolutely no distractions, or competing priorities, when the legislation is meaningless to Israel. They are absolutely single minded when the question is aid. So their silence here was uncustomary, but, given their tilt in recent years, sadly predictable."

IMMIGRATION: The Right's First Lieberman?

SC's Daily Shot reports "that high level state and national Republican leaders are currently in the process of recruiting SCGOP Chairman Katon Dawson to run against Sen. Lindsey Graham in next year's" GOP primary. More Shot: "Many of these leaders are currently unhappy with Sen. Graham's stances on several key issues including immigration. ... Katon is extremely popular with the party's base. ... Dawson would not have to give up his chairmanship if he ran against Graham, which would allow him to garner the necessary level of earned media most fringe candidates would struggle to get."

THOUGHT OF THE DAY: Nobody Likes You

Talk Left's Big Tent Democrat looks at recent Dem inaction on Iraq and GOP crack up on immigration and comments:

One of the more interesting things to happen politically this year is the manner in which the Beltway Establishment has basically been utterly rejected by most of the country. While David Broder bleats for "sensible bipartisanship" without ever explaining what substantive policies should actually look like, the American People have basically rejected the performance of the Washington Establishment.
For Democrats in Washington, their performance on Iraq has pushed their approval ratings to extreme lows. For Republicans, it has been Bush's immigration bill.

One thing is clear about this year, the big loser has been the Washington Elite. NOBODY likes them. They have never been as out of step with the country as they are now. I wonder if they have any clue about this.

LEST WE FORGET: And The Portland Trailblazers Select ...

For those of you that missed the NBA draft last night, Cracked picks the top 11 11 Movie Basketball Players of All Time including these top five:

• 1 Teen Wolf (Teen Wolf): "Dr. J in a Chewbacca costume"
• 2 Neon Budreau (Blue Chips): "Plays uncannily like Shaquille O'Neal"
• 3 Saleh (The Air Up There): "A more athletic, less sexually forthright Dikembe 'Who Wants to Sex' Mutumbo"
• 4 Jesus Shuttlesworth (He Got Game): "A less charismatic, more idiotically named Ray Allen"
• 5 Jimmy Chitwood (Hoosiers): " A whiter Jeff Hornacek, if that's possible"

Posted by Conn Carroll at 12:31 PM

June 28, 2007

6/28: After McCain

As part of his '[John] McCain Death Watch' series, NY Sun's Ryan Sager notes 6/27 that Quinnipiac is now including a "without McCain" question in their WH '08 GOP polling, just like they do for longshot undeclared candidates like Condi Rice and Newt Gingrich. While Quinnipiac may be jumping the gun on taking the first look at the post-McCain era, it's worth wondering what a resurgent McCain campaign could look like. Is there a single issue, outside of Iraq, that conservatives agree and identify McCain with? Short of a dramatic 180 degree turn on progress in Iraq, what series of events could possibly end a McCain candidacy? With the Senate immigration bill now dead, McCain may be able to stabilize his downward spiral, but what on earth could possibly start moving his numbers in a positive direction?

BROWNBACK: It's Amnesty If The Base Says Its Amnesty

The Corner's Kathryn Jean Lopez posts a Sam Brownback press release defending his 6/26 vote for cloture on the immigration bill and comments: "I'm not sure he gets the bill is amnesty."

MCCAIN: What Was Your Favorite Moment Of The Candidate McCain Era?

NY Sun's Ryan Sager links to Quinnipiac's latest polling on the GOP Field in FL, OH, and PA and flags a significant development: "They've started adding a category to the GOP primary results labeled, "WITHOUT McCAIN." (See question 2.) ... Now, to those of you who don't spend all your days reading polls like this, the "without" breakdowns are usually reserved for candidates who probably won't be in the race, such as "without Gingrich," "without Rice," etc. This, as far as I know, is the first instance of a major polling organization starting to look publicly at a race without John McCain."

F. THOMPSON: Bloggers Help Those Who Help Themselves

Fred Thompson called into Captain's QuartersRadio to respond to Dem attacks on his past lobbying efforts. Thompson later promoted the segment at RedState and NRO's Jim Geraghty transcribed the call, including:

The Democrats, it looks like, have chosen a fella that's not even in the race yet to launch their attacks against. I don't know when I've been so complimented. ... I'd just say, keep it up guys. These are the same things you tried back in the 1994 campaign when I first ran, and it got you within 20 points of me.

Thompson did not bother responding to a Drudge linked YouTube challenging his pro-life credentials, but plenty of other conservative bloggers did including:

• The Corner's Kathryn Jean Lopez: "Some of it was not Fred at his best, but it can't really be that damning considered some of the YouTubes on his competition."
• Ankle Biting Pundit's Bull Dog Pundit: "Drudge has a big headline up about this YouTube video entitled "Pro-Choice Fred?", which purports to prove that Fred Thompson is pro-abortion. Yeah sure. Even by an amateur standard this video is so transparently lame and misleading as to be a joke."
• RedState's Alexham: "The many deficiencies in the video are self-evident, so there's no need to recount them here ... Update: It appears that Drudge is no longer linking to the video in question. Good for him."

Also fighting anti-Thompson memes, RCP Blog's Tom Bevan explains why he isn't buying into George Will's claims that Thompson is a "substance-free Republican flash in the pan." Bevan writes:

I remain unconvinced by such arguments, if only because the other top tier contenders in the Republican field continue to have major problems that, even though it remains early in the contest, they either haven't addressed or seem unable to put to rest. ... Thompson has his own issues with the base from a policy standpoint, though none of them appear to be hugely significant. Furthermore, personality is not an unimportant piece of the pie, and when you combine policy preferences with the kind of likable demeanor Thompson possesses, it naturally generates a level of comfort among Republican primary voters that few, if any, of the other top tier candidates can match.

F. THOMPSON II: 50 Million Reasons To Wait

SC's Daily Shot posts video of Thompson at 6/27's GOP luncheon in Columbia, SC, and comments: "He took on abortion right out of the blocks, in response to the heat that he has been taking from groups attacking his right flank. As he continues to move toward a candidacy, he will have to defend his record, just like the rest of the pack. Also, he was right the lucky SOB sure has saved himself 50 million by not getting in just yet."

Later, the Shot joins Marc Ambinder in speculating who will be Thompson's top SC consultant, concluding: "Ambinder seems to think that Walter Whetsell of Starboard Communications could be the guy after spotting him with an "I'm with Fred" button on at today's event. The question is; would that negate his lucrative contract with the "Ed in '08? Campaign? ...Well, that leaves Rod Shealy really. There aren't that many big guns out there who haven't signed on with a candidate already and Rod would be the biggest yet to pick a horse. Our guess is Rod will probably win the day if he so chooses. He has a hot hand right now and could help Thompson organize a decent grassroots game pretty quickly.

DEM FIELD: A Coulter Bounce?

Daily Kos' 6/27 straw poll showed John Edwards maintaining a strong lead over second place finisher Barack Obama (unlike the 6/13 MyDD straw poll which showed Edwards dropping 10 points after Edwards advisor David 'Mudcat' Sandersinsulted the netroots). DKos results include:

6/07 5/07
Edwards 40 39
Obama 22 24
Other 9 6
No F'ing Clue 7 7
H. Clinton 6 6
Richardson 5 8

DailyKos' founder Markos Moulitsas comments: "Not much analysis since I'm headed out of here in a few hours. But in short, the Gravel boomlet is over. Richardson continues to tank. He had his own serious boomlet here while his poll numbers were non existent. Now, as his candidacy gains steam in the early states, he fades here. I'm surprised Obama isn't doing better than this and I suspect his numbers will improve. Still, the Daily Kos primary is a two-man race."

CLINTON: Des Moines Or Bust?

Intent on stopping Hillary Clinton's coronation, MyDD's Big Tent Democrat looks at the most plausible ways she could be derailed. BTD believes Al Gore would have the best shot at beating HRC, but argues Gore would only do so after the MSM roundly concluded that Barack Obama and John Edwards had no chance of winning. BTD says no such MSM consensus would ever crystalize before IA, and that waiting till after IA would be too late for a Gore entry.

BTD concludes that the most realistic chance of knocking HRC out is for Obama and Edwards to finish in the top two in IA placing Clinton in a "crippling" 3rd: "It would take a miracle in New Hampshire for her to recover and I doubt there will be any miracles there. Clinton supporters are not deeply committed to her in my opinion. I actually think this is the most likely of the events that could happen to derail Hillary. ... Iowa is the key to the whole race. Hillary wins Iowa, the race is over."

DODD: Against Bikini Clad Models

Chris Dodd is receiving rave reviews for his use of YouTube's Spotlight series to urge voters, in TPM's Greg Sargent words, "to go and visit their Senators and Congressmen and ask them what they have to say about the Dodd amendment to the Defense Authorization bill." Firedoglake's Jane Hamsher comments: "Chris Dodd is using his to call bulls**t on the media's obsession with haircuts, bikini clad models and other fluff while people are dying and to promote the "Dodd Amendment" to end the war in Iraq. He's encouraging everyone to go pay a visit to your senator over the upcoming recess because they just don't seem to be getting the picture that the American people want out of Iraq."

Dodd also garnered praise for his speech to the Day Of Action To Restore Law and Justice. Firedoglake's Christy Hardin Smith blogs: "Standing up for the Constitution and the rule of law is a must to gain political support from folks in this country who are fed up with the Bush Administration's outright hostile treatment of the laws of this nation and their utter disregard for human rights."

EDWARDS: Against Dumb Trade

MyDD's okamichan13 rounded up highlights from an Elizabeth EdwardsDaily Kos liveblogging session including:

• On IA: "I don't take anything for granted. But I feel great about Iowa. They look for a candidate with a constellation of qualities: character, vision (as exhibited by fully formed ideas) and (because they are pragmatic) electability. John meets all their criteria and, in addition, he is well-liked in the state. The Iowa team has done a great job of organizing so we are ready. I am convinced John will win Iowa and the only question (which I do not know) is the percentage."
• On 'smart trade': "John opposed NAFTA (which was passed before he was in the Senate) and other trade bills that did not have a baseline of worker and environmental protections. He believes that all our trade agreements without these (which may be nearly all) need to be renegotiated and that no new trade agreements should be entered into that do not guarantee a reasonable (for each locality) wage, worker safety protections and environmental protections."
• On 'some in Congress not standing up to Bush': "It is disappointing. I don't know enough who to blame. We clearly need leadership. I spoke at a Rage for Justice dinner recently and that is what we need: leaders who will rage for justice. The Iraq vote was an example. Even those who voted the right way didn't exhibit the leadership we need right now. Silence, as MLK said, is betrayal."

At Firedoglake, Christy Hardin Smith reviews Edwards new NH ad: "Edwards uses a line from his stump speech that has resonated well with audiences: that it is time for the President of the United States to ask Americans to be patriotic about something other than war. It talks about lifting people up from poverty, and the fact that the most valuable asset in America is Americans themselves and what they can accomplish together. ... I think the Edwards folks were trying to go for that "morning in America" ad feel, but from a fresher take on how Americans need to pick up and take charge of the issues we face ourselves. A sort of "we're in this together" sort of theme."

IMMIGRATION: Eight Men In Or Out?

The Senate is voting on cloture as we got to deadline, but conservatives werecautiously optimistic heading into the vote. Blogger activism focussed on what The Corner's Kathryn Jean Lopez dubbed "The Amnesty Eight" which included: Sens. Kit Bond (R-MO); Sam Brownback (R-KS); Richard Burr (R-NC); Norm Coleman (R-MN); John Ensign (R-NV); Ben Nelson (D-NE); Mark Pryor (D-AR); and James Webb (D-VA).

Kausfiles forwards advice to bill opponents who can't get through to their Senator on busy phone lines: "Besides calling the senate office, folks should call the state chair and county chair of the senator's party. ... It would let the senator know that folks know how to do more than get riled up over an issue. Someone who tracks down his county chairman is a lot more likely to be a primary voter." Michelle Malkin posts video of Sen. Jeff Sessions (R-AL) telling Fox News: "Radio talk show hosts know more about this bill than most Senators, if you want to know the truth."

Finally Mark Levin pens a conservative response to the Wall Street Journal's scolding of "open borders" opponents. Levin blogs in part:

What drives the editorial writers at the Journal is their insatiable demand, on behalf of their advertisers, for sweat-shop conditions and slave wages. ... Since 1965, the government has promised the public border security in exchange for amnesty. Today's Journal writers aren't as honest as their predecessors. They deny this bill provides for amnesty. In the past, they would have proudly proclaimed it.

Today's Journal writers take refuge in the anonymity of the editorial page as they assassinate the character of those with whom they disagree. Apparently, those who insist on enforcing the law are racists. Those who insist that the government fulfill its obligation to secure the border and punish businesses that hire illegal aliens are anti-Hispanic.

The Journal writers are prodding Republicans to play ethnic politics. They argue that if the Republicans are viewed as anti-Hispanic, they will lose elections. Of course, the Journal writers are perpetuating that smear by assigning racist motives to opponents of the bill. But Republicans do best when they run on principle and act on principle. Unlike the Journal writers, I happen to believe that Hispanic Americans are motivated by the same principles as other Americans, including - liberty, security, the rule of law, capitalism, and faith.

HOUSE LANDSCAPE: Merry Q2 Charlie Brown

MyDD's Jonathan Singer urges readers to help Blue Majority ("this cycle's version of the Netroots Candidates list on Act Blue") close out a successful Q2. Singer pitches for "Al Wynn-foe Donna Edwards and soon-to-be John Doolittle-slayer Charlie Brown ... We are not making a huge ask today, but it's an important one. We're fast approaching the end of the second fundraising quarter -- all contributions need to be in by the end of the day on June 30 -- so we are asking folks to chip in $10 for Edwards and Brown, and we would like to see 100 new contributions for each of them by the end of the day Saturday."

NSA: Against Negotiated Settlement

The netroots have little faith in WH compliance with Senate Judiciary Cmt. subpoenas issued 6/27 for all documents related to the NSA's warrantless surveillance program. TPM's Spencer Ackerman blogs: "Circle July 18 on your calendars -- that's the compliance deadline. If it's not met, the committee will seek explanatory testimony from White House chief of staff Josh Bolton, Attorney General Alberto Gonzales, Cheney chief of staff David Addington, and National Security Counsel executive director V. Philip Lago."

Daily Kos' Kagro X lays out the options Dems have after the inevitable WH non-compliance: "1. Move to hold the targets of the subpoenas in statutory contempt of Congress; 2. Move to hold the targets in inherent contempt of Congress; 3. Extend the deadline for compliance and make threats regarding either #1 or #2 above; 4. Come to some negotiated settlement with the "administration" -- i.e., closed door, no transcript testimony, limited document release, etc.; 5. Do nothing, complain loudly about obstructionism, stonewalling, and lawlessness, and hope that voters elect Democrats in 2008, because Republicans are so nasty; and 6. Ask the House to impeach."

Kagro bets the Dems will go with negotiated settlement but then makes the case for impeachment. The Left Coaster's Steve Soto adds: "Democrats in Congress need to get over the fantasy that they can negotiate a solution with this White House. The Bush Administration will reject the subpoenas on grounds of executive privilege and force the Democrats to take this to court. Do it now, so that the rest of Bush's agenda and his remaining time in office are spent in a turf war brought on by his criminal Vice President. Make the administration justify to the American people why Dick Cheney should be above the law and free from public scrutiny."

THOUGHT OF THE DAY: Let The Sunshine In

The Corner's Stanley Kurtz waxes on the effect blogs have had on the immigration bill:

The Internet was critical to the immigration bill's first failure. If not for the blogs, the bill's deceits and flaws would not have been so well or quickly exposed, and "comprehensive reform" would probably otherwise have passed within a couple of days. Now we're at yet another new level. The public is being exposed to a basket of legislative tricks-of a sort that are rare in any case, and surely of a kind that have never been subjected to mass and rapid-fire public exposure. The undemocratic character of all that is happening here is being conveyed to the public in short order and with clarity-often through the medium of Senate aides themselves.

LEST WE FORGET: We Thought Graham Was Against Torture

The Corner's Rich Lowry and Jonah Goldberg take turns mocking the pointlessly punitive measures Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) kept attaching to the "Grand Compromise" in misguided hopes of convincing conservatives his immigration bill was tough on border enforcement. Lowry faux-reports:

Now, instead of merely requiring a "touchback" from heads-of-households to apply for a Z-visa, the heads-of-households will have to head back to their home country for the "touchback" in chains, accompanied by a federal marshall. "We're going frog-march the bastards back to Mexico," Graham said in a written statement, vowing never, ever to support any amnesty legislation that doesn't include this measure that he calls "essential to the nation's security" and "important to the cause of providing the most humiliating and symbolically tough path to amnesty and citizenship as possible."

Goldberg adds:

I have it on good authority that Graham had to be "walked back" from his preferred "Yakuza model" before he would even agree to this latest "touchback-plus-plus-plus-plus" as some on the Hill are calling it. Graham had originally suggested that, like a failed Yakuza gangster, illegal immigrants would have to remove one finger, at the knuckle, for every year they stayed here illegally before they even left in chains for their home countries.

Posted by Conn Carroll at 12:34 PM

June 27, 2007

6/27: Hitting Soft Balls

As Fred Thompson's 5/15 smackdown of Michael Moore showed (and as Elizabeth Edwards' 6/26 televised phone call to a certain blonde pundette is reinforcing), sometimes the best thing to have in a crowded primary is the right opponent. One has to wonder if Edwards managed to capitalize on his PR gift as well as Thompson did. Thompson's video response to Moore's call for a debate on the relative merits of Cuban style health care hit on all of Thompson's strengths (ease with set creative pieces, mastery of the medium, humor, etc). But in what ways did Team Edwards response highlight any of J. Edwards strengths?

DEM FIELD: First Time's Free

The Huffington Post's Miles Mogulescu pleads with 6/28 Dem debate host Tavis Smiley to press the big three on single payer health care. Mogulescu blogs: "The leading Democratic candidates - Hillary Clinton, John Edwards and Barack Obama - criticize America's broken health care system and call for fundamental change with great rhetorical flair. But when it comes to proposing the most effective plan for change - Medicare-For-All - they don't show an audacity of hope. They show a paucity of courage. ... Obama's, Edward's and Clinton's timid half-way measures are as likely to be attacked by Republicans, big pharma and the insurance industry as a Medicare-For-All. Why not do it right the first time?"

CLINTON: At Least The Non-Profit Didn't Pay For The Haircut

Picking up on Politicocoverage of a Daily Kos diarist's recent run in with Mark Penn's PSA Interviewing field polling firm, TPM's Greg Sargent revisits a 6/8 story about a similar call received by a Jason Eness-Potter in IA.

Ennes-Potter confirmed to Sargent that his 6/7 account to IA Independent was accurate including the description of a question testing whether the John Edwards $400 haircut story "made the respondent more or less likely to approve of Edwards." Sargent also tracks down a second IA resident, Ellen Ballas who confirms the haircut question.

Sargent goes on to link back to the Daily Kos diarist's 6/24 call from PSA in NH. The diarist reports that Penn's firm has added the New York Times/non-profit story to its list of possible anti-Edwards memes. Sargent concludes: "Penn and the Hillary campaign didn't respond to requests for comment."

Also in HRC news, DailyKos' founder Markos Moulitsas notes that Clinton is the only Dem hosting her site with the "evil empire" (Microsoft), while the rest of the field has chosen to go with Linux.

EDWARDS: Weak And Incapable Of Defending Himself

Ann Coulter logged a full 2 days as convenient foil for the John Edwards campaign 6/25-26. AMERICAblog's John Aravosis posts video of Coulter kicking off her 6/25 AM telling Good Morning America that she wished Edwards had been killed in a terrorist assasination plot. Aravosis comments: "If you or I said this, we'd be arrested. And we certainly wouldn't be given TV time on ABC, NBC or any other show than FOX."

TPM's Greg Sargent then reported that early 6/26 the Edwards campaign sent out a fundraising email featuring the Coulter video, followed up by Elizabeth Edwards phoning in to Hardball to confront Coulter. Sargent comments: "Elizabeth is basically now the lead front-woman for attacking the wingnuts -- standing up for her man, and all that. ... This is clearly a storyline being laid out by the campaign, and for good reason. (Cue up the pundits who will claim this makes Edwards look weak and incapable of defending himself.)"

MyDD's Jerome Armstrong asks: "Why does Hardball and ABC legitimize her by giving Ann Coulter a platform to say these things in the first place?"

EDWARDS II: Blogger Conference Calls Are Always More Entertaining

The Huffington Post's Anna Burger takes the New York Times to task for their 6/22 coverage of Edwards non-profit org: "Insinuation and hyperbole seem to be part and parcel of today's campaigning. But to suggest ... that John Edwards' work on poverty is anything less than honorable is just plain wrong. Worse than that, it's insulting to the workers around the country he's lent his tireless support to over the years. ... To call into question the motivation of a person who has done so much to advance the cause of workers is unwarranted and unjust."

Also mentioning the Times story, MyDD's Jerome Armstrong sat in on a MSM conference call set up to promote Edwards new NH ad buy, but reports non-profit questions dominated the inquiry: "Another question on the non-profit organizations. It seems pretty clear that the reporters are all focusing on the non-profit organizations which Edwards worked for in '05-06, one reporter asked "why did you publicize it"; which is such a stupid question. ... Blogger conference calls are much better."

OBAMA: Less Than Ideal

While announcing that she won't give a penny to any of the Big Three due to their equivocating on gay marriage, The Huffington Post's Nancy Goldstein singles out Cass Sunstein's profile of Barack Obama for special abuse: "Sunstein takes this bigotry-as-religious-belief-and-respect even further in this past May's New Yorker profile of Obama ... In a dazzling display of University of Chicago law school pyrotechnics, Sunstein suggests that Obama might be more liberal than he lets on re: marriage equality while spinning his colleague's failure to publicly support it as a healthy outgrowth of Obama's penchant for compromise and his respect for - of all things - difference."

In more mixed Obama blogging TPM Cafe's MJ Rosenberg likes Obama's latest statement on the Israeli-Palestinian situation for it's "emphasis on the need for US leadership to help move the two sides to the two-state solution" but bemoans Obama's insistence on " buying into the idea that we can isolate Hamas forever and create a Palestinian state while rejecting the elected Palestinian government." Rosenberg, however, is clearly grading on a curve: "I don't judge candidates statements on the Middle East against the ideal but against the pander garbage almost all of them cynically and invariably put out. By that standard, this is fine.

RICHARDSON: We Thought The Seventh Day Was For Resting

MyDD's Nate Willems reports that Bill Richardson laid out his top six priorities to over 200 Dems at the Iowa City, IA, Public Library 6/26 ("1) Get the Untied States out of Iraq; 2) Create an "Apollo Program" for energy independence; 3) Unveil a plan for universal health care; 4) Unveil a plan to upgrade America's school systems; 5) Unveil a plan to reinvigorate the economy; 6) Redefine what the United States stands for.")

When "one of the first questioners from the audience suggested that on the 7th day Richardson should get the Employee Free Choice Act passed into law ... Richardson heartily agreed and touted his labor record in New Mexico." Willems notes though: "Labor issues, though, did not make it into his top six priorities."

BROWNBACK: The Next McCain?

After noting that Sam Brownback's 'yes' vote on cloture for the immigration bill "is probably going to lead to some hostile questions on the campaign trail," NRO's Jim Geraghty shares "Team Brownback"s clarification: "Senator Brownback voted in favor of cloture on the motion to proceed to the immigration bill today. That means he voted to bring the bill back to the floor for debate and for amendments to be offered. This does NOT mean that Senator Brownback supports the immigration bill itself - he feels the bill needs to be improved. "

GIULIANI: Admits He Couldn't Keep It Up

The Brody File breaks his 15 minute interview with Rudy Giuliani into seven chunks titled: Giuliani Says No to Federal Marriage Amendment...For Now; Giuliani on School Prayer and Separation of Church and State; Giuliani Responds to Those Who Want to Take Him Down; Giuliani Responds to Catholic Criticism; Giuliani Says No to Priesthood Because "Celibacy Was Something I Wasn't Sure I Could Keep."; Giuliani Won't Say if Roe is Bad Law; and Giuliani on the GOP Platform.

HUCKABEE: Farris' Day Off

Race 4 '08s Kavon Nikrad sat in on a 6/26 blogger conference call with LIFE Outreach International's Dr. James Robison and Patrick Henry College Chan. Michael Farris. Farris told callers that Mike Huckabee "is the most able political communicator he has ever met in his life, which includes over twenty years in Washington D.C."

On immigration, Huckabee assured participants "that he cannot support the bill due to it's failure to address border security and to properly identify the people who have entered the US. He remarked that he still must show his ID when he returns to his own home town and believes that most Americans would love to pay the $2000 fine to the IRS rather than the much greater amount of income tax that they have had to pay in. It simply unfair to give this option to non-citizens."

MCCAIN: Following The Leader

Townhall's Patrick Ruffini explains why John McCain's attempts to tag his opponents as flip-floppers is, and will, not work: "Sure, all of them took McCainiac positions at some point or another. On some issues, they followed and McCain led. But that's the problem isn't it? McCain led. He led on BCRA. He led on CIR. He led the fight against the Bush tax cuts. He led the Republicans for the Kyoto treaty. All of [Mitt] Romney's flip-flops don't change the fact that McCain is responsible for the abomination that is the Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act. Whenever McCain leads, it's usually in the wrong direction. That's why conservatives don't trust him."

Also trying to explain McCain's inevitable demise, a Rich Lowry reader at The Corner explains why Stu Rothenberg's prescription for McCain to focus on his bio will fail: "[B]iography doesn't work very well once voters are familiar with and have internalized the biography. ... for many of the same reasons that Jonathan Rauch's "14-year-rule" makes sense: the longer a pol is in office, the more his actions in office will cloud out the (often loftier) achievements before he was in office."

PAUL: Some Of Us Have To Waste Our Time Listening To Them

IA Voice congratulates the IAns for Tax Relief for their decision not to invite Ron Paul to their 6/30 debate in Des Moines, IA. IA Voice comments: "Good idea. Just because someone declares themselves a candidate does not mean the rest of us need to waste our time listening to them. Ron Paul has no chance to win; he doesn't even appear to have a chance to frame the debates in any way. He's a non-factor."

Also in anti-Paul blogging, AmSpec Blog's Shawn Macomber hits Paul for supporting NH tax protester Ed Brown. Macomber writes: "Does Paul really wanted to be associated with someone who is currently stockpiling weapons for a confrontation with law enforcement, threatening another Waco should anyone attempt to make him do the time he was tried, convicted and sentenced to serve for tax evasion?"

F. THOMPSON: A Freding Fenzy

RedState's Mark Kilmer and Race 4 '08s Tommy Oliver both post plenty of video from Fred Thompson's visit to the Old Fall School Building in Nashville, TN 6/26. Kilmer reports that Thompson will probably use the building as his HQ should he run, and Oliver adds: "Thompson's homecoming has dominated the Tennessee airwaves for the last day and a half. This state is truly in a frenzy unlike any other. It really is amazing the amount of universal support he is receiving. You'd have to see it to believe it. The newspapers and local news channels have been falling over themselves. ... Even our Democrat governor, Phil Bredeson, has had only nice things to say about Thompson."

F. THOMPSON II: Rebel With A Cause

Power Line's John Hinderaker wasn't done hitting back at the AP for their Thompson lobbying story after just one post. Hinderaker does some digging and discovers that the AP author, Travis Loller, normally covers "Hispanic issues and general assignments" and was once reported my Mother Jones to have an "extensive activist history" including "protests against the Gulf War, the Rodney King verdict and Propositions 187 and 209." Loller always was "deported from Mexico on April 12, 1998 for alleged collusion with the Zapatista rebels (EZLN)."

Hinderaker comments: "As a former radical, I'm not unsympathetic to Ms. Loller's history. For all we know, her politics may be very different today from what they were in 1998. At a minimum, though, it's an interesting background for a reporter for the Associated Press, an organization which is still regarded by many as a neutral and objective wire service.

NRO's Jim Geraghty adds: "Boy, that must just shine on a resume submitted to AP, huh? 'Experience agitating for Mexican Separatists? Why, yes, that's exactly what we're looking for in our Tennessee bureau!'"

IMMIGRATION: It's The Morning Of Just Week 2 ...

Conservatives are seemingly confident that despite their 6/26 defeat, they will manage to find enough votes to defeat 6/28's impending cloture vote. AmSpecBlog's Quin Hillyer names names: " According to Insider(s), Burr, Brownback, Gregg, Nelson of Nebraska, and Webb are VERY good targets for switching against cloture (or perhaps not being there, which amounts to the same thing). Pryor, Bond, and Coleman are other serious possibilities. I am told, too, that Barbara Boxer remains decidedly unhappy with the bill, and is still a definite possibility to switch to the anti-cloture, anti-amnesty side."

RedState's Rob Bluey urges: "Conservatives need to continue educating their senators about the dangers of the bill. 'We need to give it all we've got over the next 48 hours,' one conservative ally told me. 'The second cloture vote will be the most important vote of the year.'"

Michelle Malkin is urging GOPers that have given money to candidates and party committees in the past to call back and demand a refund. The Corner's Mark Krikorian lists the anti-GOP ads conservatives have created attacking pro-compromise Senators including: Muchas Gracias, Senor Graham; The Love Song of Edward M. Kennedy; John McCain - Weak on Immigration; Trent Lott - Bad for America; Trent Lott Sells Out Mississippi to Illegal Aliens; Come Home, Lindsey; Lindsey Graham on South Carolina Bigots; and Lindsey Graham to Taxpayers.

Not all are optimistic, particularly about the future of the GOP. Instapundit heads a post "R.I.P. G.O.P." and blogs: "Out in the car I heard a few minutes of Rush Limbaugh talking about the immigration bill moving forward. I think the Republicans' situation is looking pretty grim, and I wonder, what impels them to make such a self-destructive move? Limbaugh was wondering too." An Instapundit reader later urges primary challenges for compromise supporters, Kausfiles seconds the idea. Riehl World View is just done with the whole party: "Having voted Republican in every election for the past 30 or so years, it is increasingly difficult to comprehend how I am going to be able to pull the lever for a candidate aligned with that party in the future, unless or until they get their act at least halfway together."

The Corner's Kate O'Beirne notes: "A veteran Senate aide reminded me that the essential function/core responsibility of a Senate majority or minority leader is to represent his party on procedural issues. This responsibility doesn't rest with other members of the party's Senate leadership. Speaking for his party on procedural issues defines the job of a Senate leader. A majority of Republican senators voted against cloture and Senator McConnell voted on the other side. Apparently, that's unprecedented."

IRAQ: Another One Bites the Dust

Taking a break from immigration blogging, conservatives are beginning to react to Sen. Richard Lugar's (R-IN) call for a change in Iraq policy. The Corner's Rich Lowry concludes Lugar is "basically saying ... that the war is lost, and all the rest of it - a diplomatic offensive, forging progress on the Arab-Israeli conflict, etc. - is window dressing" and that he'll now do more to impose a timetable.

The Corner, Andy McCarthy responds noting that what Lugar, the great GOP "Foreign Policy Doyen" is saying, is that the US has lost a way against "rag-tag terrorist cells....and, knowing that, he would have us run away anyhow." McCarthy posts later on Lugar that he's "hardly a singular voice here," but from his personal experience jihadists "really do think they can and will win."

Michael Ledeen replies The Corner that he's glad Lowry likes Lugar, but the Senator is a "foreign service officer masquerading as a political leader." Ledeen writes he can't "recall a moment of courage" in the 30 years he's watched Lugar. As Foreign Relations Chair for many years, "What did he accomplish? Nothing." As RightWingNewsJohn Hawkins notes, "Get Ready for Republicans to Start Abandoning The War in Iraq" and adds: " I think the political tide has irrevocably turned against Iraq, even amongst Republicans."

TPM'sJosh Marshall blogs the latest CNN-Opinion Research Corporation poll shows 69 percent believe things are going badly in Iraq and anti-war sentiment among GOPers has suddenly increased. As long as "the vast majority" of GOPers oppose Dem attempts to end the war, "that will keep" Dems "from really going to the mat over it." But "eventually" public opposition "will become so overwhelming that" Dems "may be willing to really force the matter and not worry about lacking any bipartisan cover." Or maybe by Sept '07, enough GOPers will see the numbers to give Dems a veto-proof majority.

THOUGHT OF THE DAY: Doing The Jobs American Corporations Are Definitely Willing To Do

Wired's Jason Pontin recounts a probably apocryphal story of a programmer who outsourced his own job to India for $12K and then pocketed the difference between that and the $67K his employer paid him, and comments:

It's a case where everyone wins. By subcontracting out the generic parts of his job, the programmer gives himself a promotion. The Indian developer is well paid. The employer gets good code. In the US, the debate about outsourcing often focuses on large companies laying off employees. ... The wisdom of outsourcing applies to businesses great and small. When companies have some of their operations performed elsewhere, they reduce costs and allocate capital and labor instead to those activities that cannot, or should not, be subcontracted. When businesses use capital and labor efficiently, they can better explore expanding markets. And faster growth creates a need for new workers. The result is almost always a net gain in employment.

LEST WE FORGET: Beware The Muslim Werewolves

Cracked.com details the past gaffes of WH '08ers and predicts what Future Faux Pas will doom some candidates, including:

• Hillary Clinton: "Radio interference during a fundraiser speech will definitively reveal what conservatives have long suspected: that Hillary is, in fact, a cold, lifeless robot."
• John Edwards: "In a humiliating, Al Gore-like defeat, Edwards will fail to win the South Carolina primary, despite being born there. Shortly thereafter, he will fail to hit the side of a barn with an underhand softball pitch from a distance of five feet and forget how to tie his shoes."
• Bill Richardson: "While watching Ocean's Thirteen with his wife, Richardson will fail to comprehend that the secretive group led by George Clooney is, in fact, a criminal enterprise, pleading with his wife for days afterwards that, "they seemed so honest." And if that's not humiliating enough, GOP insiders will leak the secret that Richardson looks suspiciously like this guy from Dances With Wolves, but with more neck fat."
• Rudy Giuliani: "Elaborating on his reputation as an excellent judge of character and a realist, Giuliani will claim, in all earnestness, that if a Democrat is elected president, Muslim werewolves will break into your home and peel your nipples right off of your chest like Buddha says in the Koran."
• Fred Thompson: "Loudly inhaling a foam microphone cover as he snores like a Looney Toon on stage at the next debate."

Posted by Conn Carroll at 12:37 PM

June 26, 2007

6/26: No Amendment Can Assuage Critics Of This Bill

The WH and 'Grand Bargainers' can toughen the Z-visa background checks and require even more pointless 'touchback' provisions but they are not going to cool their burning phone lines one bit. Conservatives could not be more clear: after 20 years of broken promises on border enforcement no legislation from Washington is going to convince them that Americans are going to get the border security they crave. Only future government results can rebuild trust. Captain's Quarters (an original supporter of the bill) puts it best: "Secure the border. Fix the visa program, and the passport system as well. When those tasks have been completed, then we can talk about how best to normalize those remaining in the US and how best to incentivize them to come forward."

CLINTON: It's Almost As If Arianna Doesn't Like Hillary Or Something

The Huffington Post hosted a full round of attacks on Hillary Clinton's 'authenticity' 6/25. Most notably, Robbie Baitz, a dissenter from HRC's 6/23 fundraiser at the Hollywood, CA, home of Roland Emmerich blogs: "I am the man who suggested that the senator's answer to a single question felt -- well, sorry -- a little bit like a set-up. ... The young lady in charge of the mic hissed at me, and a couple I knew accused me of being cynical and naive at the same time. ... Hillary was a pro, cautious, hard core, and clean-edged. At the point where I felt gypped for a moment by her, at the moment when I felt let down (again!), something snapped. And when I bemoaned it, more out of worry -- if you're fake here, where the hell will you be real? -- she bristled at me."

The Huffington Post's Bill Barol later thanked Baitz for calling out HRC's "zombie-like caution and unshakable allegiance to talking points." Barol adds: "A peevish sense of entitlement doesn't look good on a US president, and the reason I know that is that I've been looking at it for the last seven years. Democrats and Republicans, left, right and center, we all deserve better."

Not to be out done on her own site, Arianna Huffington pairs recent coverage of VP Dick Cheney's penchant for secrecy with Carl Bernstein's Clinton bio A Woman in Charge and blogs: "[I]t's pretty safe to say the central question facing Democratic voters in the presidential primaries is: which candidate will be most effective at rolling back the Bush years? ... But when it comes to the issue of secrecy and an administration operating in the shadows, there's an argument to be made that the candidate least likely to turn on the lights is Hillary Clinton. Her lifelong commitment to secrecy is one of the main themes of Bernstein's book."

Finally, Mike Gravel blogs about "Why Hillary Scares Me" including: "Hillary's speech last week to the Take Back America conference gives me yet another reason to be afraid. In an indignant voice she decried the Bush administration's 'stunning record of secrecy and corruption, of cronyism run amok. . . It is everything our founders were afraid of, everything our Constitution was designed to prevent.' Actually, our Constitution grants Congress the power to prevent these ills but Hillary and her colleagues weren't up to the task."

EDWARDS: Is There Such A Thing As A Haircut Card?

MyDD's Jerome Armstrong picks up on "something that's been going around," namely suggestions emanating from the John Edwards campaign that Edwards is more electable than Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton. Armstrong blogs: "Though it's not a clear-cut case though that Edwards does better nationally than Clinton or Obama, I do think the polls make enough of a case that it's a good strategic move, if only to put the others on the defensive."

Some at MyDD were not eager to engage in an 'electability' debate with Loving J even suggesting such arguments were borderline racist: "The most concerning aspect to this whole debate is the notion that any democrat can win a large number of states in the South. This remains to be seen since to date, democratic presidential candidates have done poorly in the south ... So I am going to stick my neck out on a limb here and suggest that John Edwards may be gearing his campaign up to play a subtle race/gender card strategy. I hope this is not the case but the fact remains that America has never elected a woman or a black man."

More popular among the netroots, Edwards aide Jonathan Prince email attacking the New York Times for their 6/22 coverage of Edwards non-profit orgs were well received. Daily Kos' McSnatherson blogs: "A lot of Edwards backers and observers in the blogosphere - most definitely including myself - have been hoping that the Edwards campaign would hit back against the slanderous smears our corporate media have been pumping out, and I'm more than happy to say that Mr. Prince delivers with gusto." TPM's Greg Sargent adds: "It's unusual, to be sure, for candidates to attack the almighty Paper of Record so directly. Also unusual, [p]ointing to a negative story about yourself in order to raise money."

Talk Left's Big Tent Democrat also tracks recent negative MSM stories on Edwards and concludes: "This reminds me of no one so much as Bill Clinton circa 1992 and during his Presidency. The Washington Establishment never liked the Clintons because, as far as I could see, they were nouveau powerful and, in the minds of the Beltway, tacky. Sort of like they feel about the blogs. ... I tell you what, I think it is becoming pretty clear that the BEST politician in the race appears to be John Edwards."

EDWARDS II: His Better Half

Linking to Elizabeth Edwardsendorsement of gay marriage , DailyKos' founder Markos Moulitsas sums up the sentiments of many netrooters: "If Elizabeth Edwards was running for president, she'd be my candidate with no reservations. Unfortunately, she's not."

Also impressed with EE, MyDD's Todd Beeton live blogs part of the Edwards' Tonight Show appearance including: "The first part of the interview focuses on Elizabeth and she is really brilliant -- smart, compassionate, funny. ... Jay asked Sen. Edwards about the fact that Elizabeth came out in support of gay marriage, which he disagrees with. He said 'I'm not where Elizabeth is yet' but said he is a strong supporter of gay and lesbian rights."

Earlier 6/25, CaliticsBrian Leubitz posted video from EE's 6/24 meeting with bloggers in San Francisco, CA, and recounts: "She addressed a litany of issues, including her husband's Senate record, the Iraq war, and economic/poverty issues. She had a very long speaking engagement, and she seems to be holding up remarkably well. I'm quite amazed that anybody, let alone a woman battling cancer, has the stamina to keep the kind of schedule that she's keeping."

Also with video and a live account Left in SF: "She also was faced with a series of questions about some passages from political consultant Bob Shrum's book. She endeared herself to the bloggers in the crowd by referring the questioner to YouTube to see her point-by-point refutation of Shrum."

OBAMA: Everyone's A Critic

Plenty of mixed reviews on recent Barack Obama campaigning including his new ads in IA, a speech in New York, and his evolving position on liquified coal:

• MyDD's Jonathan Singer on liking only one of Obama's new IA ads: "[T]he longer biographical spot that deals with Obama's community organizing. I think this ad hits on the right points and is fairly effective. ... Now on to the second ad. ... My issue with the ad ... is that Iowa isn't necessarily the best place to run an ad about bipartisanship, at least when running for support in the caucuses rather than in the general election.
• The Huffington Post's Glynnis Macincol on not liking Obama's 6/22 speech at New York, NY's Hammerstein Ballroom: "However, as his speech progressed it felt more and more as though we were watching him on television; there was simply no gesture on his part that suggested he knew where he was, or to whom he was speaking. ... Talk that Obama is running a traditional campaign, lacking the innovation and substance he has led people to expect, is on the rise and one can only imagine what a little bit of originality on Friday might have led to in terms of coverage.
• The Huffington Post's David Berreby on liking Obama's 6/22 speech at New York, NY's Hammerstein Ballroom: "He doesn't sound like a politician; he sounds like a preacher, with a pastor's way of rising to high rhetoric and then swooping down to take in a heckler's shout, fold it in to his sermon ... A really simple emotion, actually. I was feeling: This guy, the actual person I'm seeing and hearing, the man having this effect on everyone around me -- this is who I want to be President of the United States.
• Matthew Yglesias on rumblings over Obama and coal: "Barack Obama attempts to rise above the trivial matters (i.e., chemistry and economics) that divide supporters and opponents of liquid coal technology and makes everyone unhappy with a nonsensical compromise position. ... I think Obama had an opportunity here to just tell the truth ... and now he's flip-flopping to the correct position because as president you need to respond to matters of pressing national and global importance."

OBAMA II: We're All Conspiracy Theorists Now

Connecting ongoing coverage of both Pres. Bush's Prosecutor Purge and the federal indictment Antoin Rezko, The Washington Monthly's Kevin Drum urges journalists to ask if political harm to Obama could be behind the investigation: "[D]espite all the evidence that the Department of Justice has become little more than a political instrument of the White House, we've heard almost no questions about whether Rezko's indictment is legitimate or simply puffed up. ... [U]ntil recently, faith in the basic integrity of our justice system has run so deep that it's been hard for most journalists to shake it. But shake it they should. Given what we've learned over the past several months, it's no longer conspiratorial to wonder whether political scheming could have contaminated the DOJ. It's an established fact."

OBAMA III: Extremism In Defense Of Price Gouging

Progressive States Network ED Joel Barkin is asking Obama to reject The American Legislative Exchange Council's (ALEC) invitation top speak at their summer conference. Barkin explains: "I look forward to Sen. Obama rejecting the invitation, rather than lending any more legitimacy to ALEC's extremist agenda. After all, Obama has spent his career working against many of the policies ALEC pushes."

David Sirota claims ALEC is using Obama's notoriety "to build an audience for its conference" and urges Obama to use this "PR gift given to him by the Right" by demanding "his photo be removed from ALEC's website and marketing materials." Sirota also details the agenda of this "extremist group" including: "This is a group that takes truck loads of cash from ExxonMobil to rail against proposals to stop oil industry price gouging and start regulating greenhouse gas emissions."

MCCAIN: September Is A Popular Month For Big Decisions

Conservative bloggers may have questioned the fall date of a London Timesprediction that John McCain may drop out by 9/07, but few questioned the inevitability of his campaigns demise. Posts include:

• RCP Blog's Blake Dvorak: "When you're a candidate of McCain's stature, you don't drop-out before the first vote is cast. Money might certainly be a problem for McCain going into the fall, but he'll have enough to last the first round of primaries.
• Townhall's Patrick Ruffini: "Don't count me in the McCain Death Watch camp just yet. ... The true moment of decision for McCain won't come until September, when net cashflow starts turning red. ... If things got really dire, McCain would have the option to self-fund or loan himself some of his wife's eight figure fortune, like Kerry mortgaged Teresa's house to rescue his failing campaign in late 2003.
• The Corner's Rich Lowry: "I'm not sure what McCain has to do to revive his campaign (avoiding driving it into a ditch on immigration would have seemed the obvious thing to do). But I do know that whatever it is will have nothing to do with 2000, but with the here and now in 2008."
• Captain's Quarters: "I don't think McCain will get the nod, but he's not finished yet. McCain has weathered tougher situations than a mid-campaign slump. Anyone expecting him to quit while polling 11% nationwide in June is indulging in earlyitis."
• IA Voice: "He could very well hang in until the convention, just to prove everyone wrong. But facts are facts: with his poll numbers tanking the way they are (driven by his boneheaded amnesty bill that he's pushing), he really can't survive much longer. I'm actually surprised he's managed to stay in the race as long as he has."

The Daily Chaser has two videos up from McCain's recent Columbia, SC press conference including one featuring a person greeting him with a McCain mask "surrounded by a giant cardboard box with words 'S.S. Titanic' scrolled across one of its sides." The other video features McCain telling a reporter people saying he will drop out 9/07 must be "smoking something stronger than is legal here in the state of South Carolina."

MCCAIN II: At Least He's More Popular Than Lindsey Graham

Conservatives were not happy with McCain's response to 6/25's SCOTUS decision striking down elements of the McCain-Feingold campaign speech law. Reactions include:

• Townhall's Jonathan Garthwaite: "I'm sure the [Mitt] Romney folks smiled every time they typed "'McCain'-Feingold" in the following press release. Always helps when the U.S. Supreme Court repudiates a bill with your opponents name on it."
• Ankle Biting Pundit's Bull Dog Pundit: "What the hell are you and your colleagues so afraid of anyway? Corruption? Well, you were one of the Keating 5?, weren't you?
• AmSpecBlog's Philip Klein: "Again, a problem for McCain that his reaction to the decision is the exact opposite from the reaction of most conservatives."

Finally, 1426 Right Wing News readers fingered Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) as their least favorite GOP Senator. McCain came in third.

F. THOMPSON: Kicking 'Em While He's Down

NY Sun's Ryan Sager notes that Fred Thompson is running Google ads "next to stories about John McCain's tanked poll numbers" and Power Line's John Hinderaker hits back against an AParticle on Thompson's lobbying on behalf of "billion-dollar corporations." Hinderaker writes: "[I]t's easy to make a lobbyist look bad by associating him with his clients' causes. That said, the ammunition against Thompson is pretty thin. ... Most of his lobbying activity fell between 1975 and 1993, when, according to the AP, "lobbying clients paid him about half a million dollars." That works out to a gross of less than $30,000 a year--small potatoes, although it may not seem so to the average voter."

IMMIGRATION: The Party Of Lincoln ... Chafee

Going into the 11:50 AM scheduled vote, the vote counter's at The Corner pegged 'no' on cloture votes at "around 35." The Corner's Jim Geraghty reports on how the job is getting done: "Someone following the immigration issue closely says White House representatives have been up on Capitol Hill in force today, trying to arm-twist as many "no" votes as possible. ... For wavering senators, it's the phone lines ringing off the hook vs. the administration men sitting in their office lobbies."

The National Review have targeted seven Senators who have voiced opposition to the bill in the past, but have also shown signs they intend to vote yes on cloture: Sens. Kit Bond (R-MO), Sam Brownback (R-KS), Richard Burr (R-NC), Thad Cochran (R-MS), Norm Coleman (R-MN), John Ensign (R-NV), and Jim Webb (D-VA). Conservatives areurging compromise opponents not to believe WH and leadership assurances that their amendments will be addressed, and claim the only way to stop the bill is to kill it whenever possible.

The Corner's Jim Geraghty warns: "You know what the immigration bill reminds me of? It reminds me of Lincoln Chafee trying to have it both ways by allowing Roberts and Alito to get to the floor, but then voting against them. Chafee was expecting pro choice support in his bid for reelection, but voters saw through his little charade. If Republicans think they can let the bill come up for a vote, but then hide behind a no vote later, they're in for some trouble."

Right Wing News posts the latest anti-Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) video and Kausfiles rounds up his favorite "Shrumesqueattackads " designed to show GOP Sens. what awaits them at home.

IMMIGRATION II: Against American Dubai-ifacation

Daily Kos' Trapper John makes the progressive case against the immigration bill including:

[T]he fact that Tancredo and the Minutemen oppose this bill doesn't make it something worth supporting. It's not. And when you look at it closely, it's a bill that progressives ought to vigorously oppose. In fact, this immigration bill is an historically bad bill, one that will undermine wage markets and which will permanently cripple skills training in vital sectors of the economy. ... No, the fatal flaw in this bill isn't "amnesty" -- it's the euphemistically termed "temporary worker program."

And one day, we'll wake up and there won't be but a handful of skilled American tradespeople in the US -- because the wage markets will have been deliberately eroded to the point where those positions are filled almost entirely by 21st Century indentured servants. ... America will have become like Dubai -- a nation crowded with gleaming skyscrapers built and maintained by exploited foreigners living in labor camps. ... This is not a progressive bill. And if we can't get a progressive bill now, it would be better to wait till January 2009 to try again than to pass a bad bill now.

BLOGGERS VS. MSM: First They Came For Fox...

Led by Media Matters, the netroots are rallying to pressure PBS into dumping Frank Luntz as a post-6/28 debate analysis. David Brock writes: "With his well-documented Republican ties and history of being criticized and reprimanded by his peers, it's clear that Frank Luntz cannot be trusted to provide objective analysis of Thursday's forum. ... Today, I'm asking you to contact PBS and let the organization know that it should reconsider its decision to use Luntz in light of his partisan Republican ties and history of questionable scientific methodology."

Daily Kos' Kagro X ads: "PBS proposes to bring the FOX modus operandi to public television. How stupid (or evil, if you believe CPB's Republican-heavy Board of Directors is behind it) is it to have the debate performances of both Democrats and Republicans reviewed by Giuliani's pollster, for crying out loud? No, this just has bulls**t written all over it.

BLOGGERS VS. MSM II: The First Step Is Admitting You Have A Problem

Conservatives are no fan Howard Kurtzsuggestions that media companies ban their journalists from giving to political parties in light if a MSNBC story showing 125 of 144 MSM donations went to Dems. Reactions include:

• Instapundit: "But isn't banning those donations just covering up the problem? It's really a failure of diversity."
• Captain's Quarters: "Contrary to media management's belief, political contributions do not create political bias. Donations reveal political bias, as Kurtz himself notes. ... Rather than argue for openness, Kurtz and the industry argues for maintaining a secrecy that seems both hypocritical and a denial in and of itself, the same condition that Kurtz accuses journalists of having."
• The Corner's Jonah Goldberg: "This is a "scandal" because journalists revealed a symptom. But nobody is talking about the underlying malady. Sure, you can ban drinking on the job, but that's not the same thing as banning drinkers or alcoholics from coming into work. ... most drinkers aren't lushes (and many lushes aren't obvious about it) and banning campaign donations from journalists won't change coverage one iota, it'll just take away one small source of corroborating evidence for liberal media bias away. Unfortunately, there's so much more evidence out there."

THOUGHT OF THE DAY: Evangelists Wanted

Responding to Kathleen Parkersuggestions that WH '08er skip the "coolness" of the web and instead focus on "everyday people," Townhall's Patrick Ruffini responds:

[C]ampaigns have thoroughly bought into Keller & Barry's Influentials thesis. Meaning that more and more of campaign communications are about developing an intense connection with the 1-in-10 who really care rather than a passing connection with those who couldn't care less. I would argue that there is now almost complete overlap between online citizens and the 1-in-10. In a primary, this matters even more because the "don't care" voters probably won't be voting at all. Right now, it's more important for Rudy Giuliani or Barack Obama to tap into an energized base of evangelists than it is to be broadly acceptable to a wide audience who may get yanked away by the media tide tomorrow. The debates were watched by 2 million people apiece, and there's a legitimate argument to be made that they moved the 30-40 million universe being polled.

LEST WE FORGET: More Erin Andrews Please

Wrigleyville23 "very much likes" the Make-A-Wish Foundation and SportsCenter, he just wishes Bristol had the common sense to keep the two separate:

The problem is this: I tune in to SportsCenter for two reasons only: 1. highlights and 2. the off chance that Erin Andrews is on (College World Series!). I do not tune in to SportsCenter to see sick kids. If I wanted to see sick kids, I'd watch that Extreme Home Makeover show (another Disney property) or the National Georgraphic channel. Or the Sick Kids Channel (in the 300s somewhere). So, ESPN, my wish is this: Show more Erin Andrews and fewer sick kids. Please.

Posted by Conn Carroll at 01:13 PM

June 25, 2007

6/25: Anonymous Attack Accountability

The Blogometer always sympathizes with blogger bemoaning of MSM attacks on anonymity in the blogosphere. Bloggers rightly point out that pseudonymous posters are just as accountable, if not more so, for their postings as journalists are for their copy and unlike professionals, bloggers rarely use anonymous sources. That said, nature of the web does make it easy for people to attack candidates in ways their rivals never would. Already we have seen a Barack Obama supporter anonymously attack Hillary Clinton via YouTube and now a HRC supporter is gaining notoriety for returning the favor in blog form. While both Clinton and Obama seem content to allow these attacks to go forward without an effort to put a stop to them, it would be hard for each campaign to control the creative efforts of all their online supporters. However, unless government regulation is to be the answer, candidates must assume some responsibility/control for the more notorious unauthorized efforts. Otherwise we should expect a flurry of web based Swiftboat style attacks as consequential primaries draw close.

DEM FIELD: Over Before The Super Bowl?

Tabulating recent polling from key early primary states, MyDD's Chris Bowers concludes: "It's all about Iowa. If [Hillary] Clinton were to win Iowa, she will probably run the table. She probably would even be OK if she finishes in second in Iowa, as long as [Barack] Obama isn't the winner. ... [Bill] Richardson's continued rise, as he now surpasses the 5% threshold even in Florida, is also interesting."

CLINTON: Tangled Webs Wove

The netroots are beginning to pick up on others' complaints about anti-Barack Obama site HillaryIs44.org. MyDD's Stephen Cassidy links to Prof. Bainbridge's questioning of the site's possible link to the Hillary Clinton campaign and adds:

As I noted, on www.Hillaryis44.org there is a denial of any nexus with campaign. Yet, in web terms a link exists. If you click on the contributions link on www.Hillaryis44.org, you are sent to HRC's campaign website. This may be a specifically designated campaign contributions page to track donations from www.Hillaryis44.org as the URL varies slightly from the main contributions page on HRC's website. ... Also relevant, the site is content rich and updated regularly. It does not appear the work of one person, but a team. I doubt these people are working for free. Someone or organization is paying for the operation of the site.

DODD: With Liberty And Mandatory Service For All

Positive reactions to Chris Dodd's 6/23 National Service Plan speech include:

• BuckeyeStateBlog: "Installing a Democratic president will help us gain the cooperation of the international community once again - but it's not the end all be all. ... That's one of the reasons I like what I'm hearing out of Dodd with this national service plan, not only is it the right thing to do, but it's also the smart thing to do in terms of American self interest in the long run."
• MyDD's Jonathan Singer: "The cause of national service is one that interests me, particularly as someone who is patriotic but who believes that patriotism need not only be expressed through military service (of course not denigrating military service). As such, I am pleased to see that Chris Dodd is making a similar call during this year's Democratic primaries. ... The AP also notes that both John Edwards and Barack Obama have promoted or proposed service plans of their own, but from my understanding the Dodd plan appears to be more universal in its nature than any of the two other plans -- and more like the [Wes] Clark plan from '04."
• Blue Hampshire's Mike Caufield: "Yesterday I watched as Chris Dodd announced a bold, practical public service initiative from the steps of Nashua's City Hall. ... Yesterday, talking about his public service initiative he proposed many ideas in his refreshing no-nonsense manner. But the one that stood out was mandatory community service for graduation from high school. ... Hard medicine for some, to be sure. But good policy."

EDWARDS: Most Effective Anti-Poverty Center Ever

Netroots push back against the New York Times 6/24 article on John Edwards use of his anti-poverty nonprofit organization as a vehicle to keep him in the news to further his presidential ambitions, has failed to coalesce into a coherent attack. For some, the Times failed to "prove" the piece's "central assertion." For others, the article presents nothing "an even mildly cynical political sophisticate" didn't already know. Leading reactions include:

• TPM's Greg Sargent: "The Times' piece didn't prove its central assertion against Edwards in any way, shape or form. In endeavoring to support its central reported assertion, the case it built against Edwards relied largely, if not entirely, on circumstantial evidence."
• Talk Left's Big Tent Democrat: "In short, the lede of a NEWS article is an OPINION. Simply egregious journalism. The Times can not defend that lede. Apparently it has chosen to ignore the problem."
• TAPPED's Ezra Klein: "[S]houldn't the question of ends enter in here? ...Given that the sum of money we're talking about is $1.3 million, how has this not been an extraordinarily effective anti-poverty center? Granted, among its methods were to enable a national politician to continually raise the issue's profile through his personal advocacy, but isn't that what folks donating to a John Edwards poverty center were expecting? ... If you care about poverty, this seems like $1.3 million well spent."
• Daily Kos' MissLaura: "As long as the Times refuses to even look into the possibility that this was "an extraordinarily effective anti-poverty center," they are not doing responsible journalism."
• Daily Kos' TomP: "Last Friday's New York Times front page hit piece was just the latest in the MSM's attempt to misdirect people from the real issues. ... Just as Franklin Delano Roosevelt was attacked as a traitor to his class, the MSM will attack John Edwards as a hypocrite, a phony, because he does not fit the conventional wisdom."
• AMERICAblog's Chris in Paris: "How dare John Edwards create an organization to fight poverty in a time of war. Instead of setting up an organization to combat poverty in America, he should have been using the state of Massachusetts to fund his trips all over the US to build his political network at great taxpayer expense. ... This attack on Edwards is a yawner."
• Matthew Yglesias: "In particular, there's nothing at all here that's scandalous if you're an even mildly cynical political sophisticate, since it was always clear if you were paying attention that Edwards' outfit existed, in part, to test the viability of a 2008 presidential bid."

Some otherwise sympathetic Edwards supporters, however, see Edwards reaction to the article as more evidence Edwards is not ready for prime time. Firedoglake's Pachacutec blogs: "Okay. Let's cut the bulls**t. Your anti-poverty agenda is heartfelt and really meaningful for what ails America. Your willingness to call bulls**t on the "war on terror" is genuinely courageous. But you're too gentle, so far, to be trusted. It's time to get your hair mussed. ... The questions for you, if you really want to pay the price to make the changes you say you want to make, are: can you "hit" a woman? Can you beat up, politically, on a black man and not feel guilty about it? If not, please, stop wasting people's time and money."

EDWARDS II: So Close, Yet So Far

Elizabeth Edwards is again proving top be the more popular Edwards in netroots circles after telling the San Francisco Chronicle, "I don't know why somebody else's marriage has anything to do with me, I'm completely comfortable with gay marriage." AMERICAblog's John Aravosis blogs: "Wow. ... Pillow talk matters. I want my civil rights, I don't want to be on the receiving end of constant triangulation. Mrs. Edwards will be a force for good, at least as it concerns the civil and human rights of gay and lesbian Americans."

Talk Left's Jeralyn Merritt was less impressed with EE's explanation ("He has a deeply held belief against any form of discrimination, but that's up against his being raised in the 1950s in a rural southern town") for why JE does not support gay marriage: "I don't like that excuse. He seems to have broken the chains of the rest of his southern taboos, why not this one?"

OBAMA: Let Obama Swim

After noting "the last few weeks haven't been good for the [Barack] Obama campaign," The Political Brain author Dr. Drew Westen blogs advice for Obama at The Huffington Post: "On the stump, Obama can be electrifying. ... But if you have electricity, the last thing you want to do is pull the circuit breaker and start explaining the fine points of transistors, electrons, and electrical engineering. Yet that's exactly what Obama has done in his recent debate performances. ... Obama would do a lot better to take a leaf out of [Ronald] Reagan's book than to retrace the journey of the long list of Democrats who have drowned on the dispassionate river: Let Obama be Obama."

Reports from recent "electrifying" Obama stumps on faith, immigration, and ethics include:

• Talk Left's Big Tent Democrat: "Senator Barack Obama gave another speech on faith and politics. I like this one ... This is the way to discuss the way the Right has exploited religion in politics. ... Obama has learned some lessons it seems. This is a very good sign. Obama becomes much more viable in my mind with this change in political tone."
• The Brody File: "To me though, the criticism of the religious right was a small part of the speech. I saw it more as an uplifting speech that can bring people of faith together. For example, Obama talked about how God should not be removed from the public square."
• On Obama telling a United Church of Christ crowd that "his is a nation of laws and we cannot have those laws broken when more than two thousand people cross our borders illegally every day" MyDD's Melissa Ryan blogs : "At that point Obama lost the crowd. The fevered ovations turned into muted polite applause. While he did get back some of the enthusiasm towards the end of his speech the Senator never managed to regain the fevered excitement and momentum he had built with the attendees. ... Democrats need to redefine immigration as an issue. Candidates have to focus more how reform affects families and communities. It's also essential to divorce it from national security. Yes, securing our borders is important. But what about the estimated 12 million people already living here?"
• Jack And Jill Politics' Jill Tubman on Obama's new ethics plan: "Ok, I'm Getting Legitimately Excited About Obama ... This is unequivocally hot. I'm always excited by people who change the game. Obama here is attacking some of the underlying threats on our system of democracy. He's vowing to change those practices which corrupt our political system."

OBAMA II: Smells Like Teen Spirit

Responding to Jerome Armstrongconcerns that Obama supporters were not "part of the movement" and that therefore Obama was not "a movement candidate," MyDD's Jennifer Fernandez Ancona writes: "A movement candidate in 2008 is one who is both saying the status quo isn't going to happen anymore, and has the largest number of people involved. Right now, it's Barack Obama. ... And you want to know what's politically and strategically significant, for those of us who care about long-term movement-building, about the people who are drawn to Obama? ... They are young: The Millennial Generation is as big as the Baby Boomers. They are decidedly more progressive than older generations, and the most diverse. They are the future of this movement."

Also at MyDD, Mike Connery worries what will happen to those young Obama supporters should Hillary Clinton capture the nomination: "Right now, the youth vote is with Obama. He's riding the youth wave, and that manifests itself in a number of ways ... So what happens if Obama doesn't get the nomination? Will that generate another negative youth vote narrative in the media? Have we made enough progress among the political class to avoid blowback in terms of the attention that campaigns pay to our generation? I'm not sure."

F. THOMPSON: Five Out Of Five Girlfriends Can't Be Wrong

A London Timesstory on strong Fred Thompson support among women he used to date drew mostly positive attention. RedState's Pejman Yousefzadeh blogs: "There isn't a dollar amount you can put on that kind of publicity. And to be perfectly honest, if I were running the Thompson campaign, I would get the ladies mentioned in this story to do a commercial together for Thompson."

Power Line's John Hinderaker admits he finds "the whole Fred Thompson boom rather annoying" but links to the item and allows: "I still have reservations about Thompson's lighting out for Hollywood rather than serving his country in a time of war and crisis, but it doesn't appear that skeletons in the closet need be one of them."

Reacting to Hinderaker, fellow Power LinerScott Johnson blogs: "Like the strengths of the top three candidates, Thompson's strengths are self-evident. ... What about his weaknesses? In my view, his foremost weakness is his likely lack of appeal to independents in states such as Pennsylvania, Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa and Minnesota. Anticipating Thompson's announcement in the next week or two, I wonder which of the top four candidates would run strongest against a Clinton/Obama ticket. It is not evident to me which Republican candidate is the one, but it is not evident to me either that it is not Thompson."

IMMIGRATION: Titanic Tuesday

Conservatives firmly believe the first Senate cloture vote scheduled for 6/25 is the only vote that matters in stopping the immigration compromise. Right Wing News details the stakes: "This is not a vote on one amnesty, folks; it is a vote on whether we're going to have a string of amnesties, whether we're going to secure the borders or not, and whether your children's futures are going to be thrown away to line the pockets of corrupt businessmen and pad the vote totals of the Democratic Party."

The Corner's Mark Krikorian seems to have assumed the role of anti-compromise whip and has identified the 32 "pretty solid No votes for cloture" as well as the 12 Senators "leaning against the bill itself but so far are leaning toward the cloture motion - which means, in reality, that they would be helping pass the amnesty." The dirty dozen include: Sens. Kit Bond (R-MO), Jeff Bingaman (D-NM), Richard Burr (R-NC), Barbara Boxer (D-CA), Thad Cochran (R-MS), Kent Conrad (D-ND), John Ensign (R-NV), Carl Levin (D-MI), Judd Gregg (R-NH), Ben Nelson (D-NE), Orrin Hatch (R-UT), and Jim Webb (D-V