May 07, 2007

5/7: Is The Honeymoon Over?

The Blogometer has reported before on how tough conservative bloggers can be on their parties perceived frontrunners (that would be blogosphere frontrunners, not polling fav Rudy Giuliani). Now that Fred Thompson is inching towards an actual run, the kid gloves are beginning to come off. Reactions from his Lincoln Club Dinner include, "dull", "rambling", and "vice-presidential." As Power Line's John Hinderaker observes, Thompson is quickly moving from a 'fantasy' candidate that allows GOPers to project whatever views they have on to, into an actual politician with his own ideas and past. So far, Thompson has been unique among the GOP field, with an almost exclusive new media roll out (see his Breitbart.tv debut). We'll see if this inoculates from the fate as past blogger favs Newt Gingrich, Mitt Romney, and Rudy Giuliani.

THOMPSON: The GOP's Obama?

Fred Thompson's 5/5 address to the Annual Lincoln Club Dinner in Orange County, CA, (video) received mixed reviews. Doubters include:

• The Brody File: "I thought the speech was a mixed bag. It was folksy and funny at times, yet it also felt a little dull and rambling. ... In terms of the more important substance, he seemed to hit all the main conservative red meat themes. What stood out to me was his continued emphasis during the speech about bi-partisanship cooperation."
• Townhall's Hugh Hewitt: "Fred Thompson's speech last night was workmanlike, but given the build-up, underwhelming. ... It was a speech that President Bush could have given on substance, though full of some well worn and reliable anecdotes that got the automatic chuckles. I found myself agreeing with those who compare Big Fred's style with that of the vice president's."
• Power Line's John Hinderaker: "I think that to many he is sort of a fantasy candidate: people project their desires onto him and create him in their own image, much as many Democrats do with Barack Obama. The mythical Fred Thompson who is just the candidate we're looking for--whatever that may be--has little to do, I think, with the actual Fred Thompson."

Others were more impressed with Thompson's effort. After first poking fun at MSNBC's debate "featuring Chrissy Matthews and a sportscaster," RedState's Mark Kilmer reacts to seeing the Lincoln Club Dinner on CSPAN: "Ronald Reagan could have given that speech ... Fred Thompson talked of being a young lawyer when California Governor Reagan came to a hall to deliver a speech. ... Thompson recalls that he mumbled a few things, and President Reagan walked out and gave a barnburner. ... The speech Friday night made clear that a Fred Thompson candidacy is exactly what this party needs."

In addition to the Lincoln Dinner, Thompson helped Drudge contributor Andrew Breitbart open up his new venture Breitbart.tv with an exclusive interview. Instapundit highlights Thompson: "I've never casually run for anything." The Corner's Kathryn Jean Lopez liked this bit:

If I'm successful in what I'm doing here...if it turns out to be something that we do...and is successful at it, it will in large part be because of that. I'm already going against the rules. In my timing, and what I'm saying, and whether a guy who hasn't been out there working feverishly ever since he was in the eighth grade, and all those kinds of things, and if I do it successfully, it will be in large part because of this very thing.

RedState's Erick Erickson links and comments: "By the way, it is rather interesting to note how Fred Thompson is bypassing traditional media outlets in favor of blogging here at RedState and video interviews with Andrew Breitbart's website. My unverified suspicion is the knowledge that bypassing the traditional media keeps a buzz going, but because new media still gets less traffic than old media, there is not so much of a worry about market saturation -- keeps people salivating without feeling full."

Speaking of traditional media, conservative bloggers hit back against a LA Timesarticle promoting the fact Thompson once played "a white supremacist, spewing anti-Semitic comments and fondling an autographed copy of 'Mein Kampf'" for three episodes of Wiseguy in 1988. RedState's Erickson comments: "I think we have a candidate today for dumbest 'serious news story' ever." The Right Angle's Ericka Anderson adds: "This could have been a ranting blog post but the LA Times deemed it worth the status of 'news.'"

Also commenting on MSM coverage of Thompson, Captain's Quarters and Kausfiles argue The Washington Post was obtuse for not fingering immigration as a major reason why conservatives are more open to Thompson despite a seemingly similar record to John McCain. From Kausfiles: "Why have editors if they're not going to make a reporter confront the obvious bit of evidence that undermines his thesis? ... It's so much easier, I guess, just to cut any mention of i---------n from the story." CQ adds: "Thompson supported the Bush tax cuts from the beginning. He also pushed back against some of McCain's bipartisan efforts, such as on the "patients bill of rights", on federalist grounds. In the end, though, the biggest difference is trust. The base simply does not trust John McCain, not after the BCRA, the McCain-Kennedy immigration reform bill, and especially not after the Gang of 14.

For some though, the article raised some key questions. Race 4 '08s DaveG: " One of the reasons I've been less bearish than some about Thompson's chances in the general is that ever since I studied his record, I've felt that he's far more of a Phil Gramm/John McCain Republican than a Bush Republican. We know how popular McCain is in states like Michigan; perhaps Fred would do well in those same purple states given his comparable positions."

GOP FIELD: Dems Love Dems

Captain's Quarters voices his doubts about Newsweek's new poll showing Barack Obama, John Edwards, and Hillary Clinton beating everyone in the GOP field in head-to-head matchups:

Yes, this would be a devastating poll, if one could rely on it. It contradicts nearly every other poll, which has consistently shown Giuliani beating Obama, Clinton, and Edwards. How could Newsweek get the results they have published? Well, for one thing, it helps when you poll 50% more Democrats than Republicans. If one reads the actual poll results all the way to the end, the penultimate question shows that the sample has 24% Republicans to 36% Democrats. Compare that to the information given by Newsweek's NBC partners in February, which showed that party affiliation had shifted from a difference of less than a percentage point to a gap of 3.9 points -- 34.3% to 30.4%, with 33.9% independents.

GIULIANI: Let Rudy Be Rudy

NY Sun's Ryan Sager (self-described "someone certainly not part of the religious right") pushes back against "a counter-CW forming that Rudy Giuliani didn't actually do that badly" 5/3: "First off, Mr. Giuliani did not do badly because he is socially liberal. ... He did badly because ... he wasn't being himself. ... I've expected Mr. Giuliani to run as ... Rudy Giuliani. A New Yorker, a social liberal, a fiscal conservative, a conservative reformer with a record of success in an overwhelmingly liberal city, and an anti-terror hawk with no questions as to who our friends are and who our enemies are. That guy could win the nomination. ... Mr. Giuliani can still be this candidate. But he looked so contorted last night, so uncomfortable in his own skin, that something serious has to change in his campaign's approach."

In IA, Krusty Konservative notes Tommy Thompson outdrew Giuliani in Cedar Rapids, 5/4 and comments: "Rudy's poor showing is a good example of the problems he is having in Iowa. Now the media and some bloggers will be quick to say that Rudy's lack of excitement in Iowa is a result of his stances on social issues. That's not the case. Rudy's problems in Iowa have nothing to do with his pro-choice stance on abortion; instead it has everything to do with the staff on the ground here in Iowa, and the level of commitment to Iowa from the folks in New York that are calling the shots."

ROMNEY: L. Ron Who?

At the end of Mitt Romney's 5/4 appearance on The Hugh Hewitt show (transcript), Hewitt cops to placing Lord of the Rings as his favorite novel, and then adds "But I've got to tell you, science fiction?" Romney then avoids any Battlefield Earth mentions:

Well, you know, that's really not my favorite novel. Probably my favorite is Huckleberry Finn and I've read all of Louis L'Amour's books, I think. I may have missed one of two, but all of his westerns. You know, I have a guilty pleasure in some science fiction. A couple of my other favorite science fiction, Ann McCaffrey's Dragon Flight, and Orson Scott Card's Ender's Game. There's some great science fiction out there.

From Virginia, Beach, VA, The Brody File says Romney "did not play the role of JFK today during his Commencement address at Regent University" as many were hoping he might. But Brody still gave the speech high marks: "Romney's speech was spot on. ... It's supposed to be about these college students and hopeful words as they tackle the future. ... Really, as I read through the text, it may be one of his better speeches. I call it his "deeper waters" speech."

Brody also followed up on Romney's beliefs on evolution with Romney spokesman Kevin Madden who told Brody: "Governor Romney believes both science and faith can help inform us about the origins of life in this world." Brody was not impressed: "With all due respect, what does that mean exactly?"

BIDEN: Have You 'Fully Experienced' Joe Biden

MyDD's Nate Willems reports from a Biden town hall on Iraq from Marion, IA: "He sees the path that lead to the Dayton Accords - ending the fighting in Bosnia - as a model. He makes the case that the "next president will have no margin for error" and must be "smarter than the advisors." ... Perhaps the biggest problem with Senator Biden's candidacy is that I can't convey how impressive he was tonight, only the 100+ folks in the room fully experienced it."

OBAMA: Cocktail Thoughts

Sally Quinn's 5/5 WaPoop-ed on Barack Obama drew mostly negative reviews. The Washington Monthly's Kevin Drum was in a minority agreeing ("though in a different kind of way"):

I've read Dreams From My Father, Obama's autobiographical "story of race and inheritance." ... There's just something very peculiar about the book. I can't put my finger entirely on what it is, but for all the overwrought language that Obama employs on page after page, there's very little insight into what he believes and what really makes him tick. .... By the time I was done, I felt like I knew less about him than before.

TPM Cafe's Reed Hundt didn't even link to the story "because I don't want you to read it in full" but does comment: "And isn't everyone in Savannah offended no matter what she intended by that reference? I know my brother and sister-in-law in Augusta would be." Atrios makes Quinn "Wanker of the Day" and adds: "Though, as always, she does provide a useful window into that Washington cocktail party circuit us paranoids dream about." Finally, TPM Reader AN asks: "Quinn seems to vaguely argue that its appropriate to ask who does Obama surround himself with because of his lack of experience. I don't buy that's the reason for her question but in either case the genuine question I have is this: Was Quinn asking the same question in 1999 when George W. Bush was running for President?"

RICHARDSON: Caught In The Crossfire

Bill Richardson blogs his support for Hillary Clinton's legislation to de-authorize the Iraq war The Huffington Post: "Congress should de-authorize the war today and demand that the President begin redeploying our troops. ... Congress has the ability to end this war under the War Powers Act -- let's not wait or waver while more people die. And de-authorizing the war should mean removing all our troops. Every last one. ... We need to get all our troops out of the crossfire of this civil war."

At Blue Hampshire, bloomingpol reports from a Rockingham Dem Clambake: "Gov. Richardson spoke about what he would do in the "first six days" of his presidency. He hit all the points that a Democrat will need to hit, Iraq, education, healthcare, etc. I had come into the afternoon interested in his foreign policy credentials, and he did not disappoint. I had heard a couple of things in the blogosphere that concerned me about his position on choice, but he was unequivocal in his support. He said nothing about civil rights to raise any flags with me."

IRAQ: The First Step Is Admitting You Have A Problem

The Washington Post's correction to their 5/3 headline "Democrats Back Down On Iraq Timetable" did not escape netroots attention. Daily Kos' awol argues the correction ("While Democrats are no longer pushing a firm date for troop withdrawals, party leaders did not specifically make that concession during a Wednesday meeting with Bush at the White House") did not go far enough: "The problem is this: there was no such concession and there was no such agreement. ... There's no nuance here, no room for shading. The Democrats, quite simply, did not "offer the first major concession" and did not "agree to drop their demand for a timeline." These things did not happen. ... So the correction itself is false or misleading, and probably needs to be corrected. ... The Washington Post will need to run a news story both about what happened and the real state of affairs on the Iraq war bill."

MyDD's Chris Bowers also claims the "concession cuts directly at the heart of The Post piece and undermines the conclusion that the Democrats have already conceded," but adds: "At the same time, my concerns are still present. I still think it is extremely important for the Democrats not to be seen as caving in on this issue, both because this is such an important issue on a policy level and because on a political level the Democrats have much to lose from the perception of being weak and not sufficiently fighting for an end to the war in Iraq."

A New York Timesarticle on antiwar group pressuring Dems not to accept any bill that did not include "timelines" drew even more divergent netroots reaction. Firedoglake's Jane Hamsher saw the developments as encouraging: "For the past six years we've been playing defense and moving to an affirmative position is painful. ... It's impressive that many groups not accustomed to collaboration are coming together to lend their collective strengths to ending the war and pushing the Democrats into holding their position on withdrawal."

Talk Left's Big Tent Democrat saw the effort as "too little, too late" writing: "NOW they will oppose? They supported a bill that would not have even, theoretically, ended the war until September 2008, two months before an election! Move On was wrong then as were most of the Left blogs, as events have demonstrated. There is one way to end the Iraq Debacle - announce that the Iraq Debacle will not be funded after a date certain and then NOT fund it after the date certain. Yes, the Reid-Feingold framework."

TPM's Greg Sargent followed up on reports of a Rep. David Obey (D-WI) plan to fund the war, but only through 7/07: "It would allow Dems to fund the troops while still standing up to the White House by maintaining the possibility of ending the war. There are a number of outstanding questions, however. Could Speaker Pelosi ultimately support it?" Sargent later discovered that any strategy was dead letter in the Senate.

IRAQ II: When September Ends

Netroot leaders are flagging Min. Leader John Boehner's 5/6 commitment to Fox News Sunday "to assess how well is the plan working ... by the time we get to September, October." Daily Kos' Kagro X points to 2/11 Boehner comments to Tim Russert that "I would, I would say over the next 60 to 90 days we'll have some idea how well we're meeting those benchmarks, the progress towards them." Kagro comments: "Well, it's been 84 days since Boehner told Russert he'd go to the president and say it hasn't worked. And it's actually been 92 days since Boehner said we'd know in 90 days. ... September? October? What's that? 120-150 days from now? That's 120-150 days after the end of the 90 days Boehner said it would take?"

Atrios adds: "While we've been here before, elite media people seemed to have settled on the notion that September is the drop dead date on Iraq, that Republicans have been making genuine noise that it'll be time to abandon Bush on Iraq then. ... I'm not optimistic. I'd put it at 10% that there will be veto-override levels of Republican defection, and put it at 1% that the elite media will notice that they were suckered again when those defections fail to appear."

THOUGHT OF THE DAY: Greenpeace Has Openings

The Corner's Mark Steyn comments on London Timesreports that an Optimum Population Trust paper suggests couples limit themselves to two children since "they could cut their family's carbon dioxide output by the equivalent of 620 return flights a year between London and New York." Steyn blogs:

In those terms, surely the greatest thing everyone in Britain could do to help the future of the planet would be to reduce his carbon footprint to zero by killing himself. The United Kingdom's present fertility rate is not three children or even two but 1.6 or 1.7, and the British will be extinct long before the polar bear. And when the self-loathing westerners are gone how many Yemeni imams will want to man the late shift at the local Greenpeace office?

LEST WE FORGET: What About Those Who Wish To Remain Unfunny?

Prof. Eric Hoffman and Dr. Gary Rudorenexplain how their new book Comedy By The Numbers, "the world's first scientific manual explaining how to be funny," can help ordinary non-comedian folk:

Our studies (based on informal chats at bars with friends) show that some people are funny; some people are not funny, but think they are; and still others are not funny, but would like to be. We think this last category is MOST people. So we figured, why not give them a wealth of comedy knowledge to throw out at parties to impress the ladies? Or show them hilarious examples of office situations to inspire them to become popular around the water cooler? The best way for regular folks to be helped by the book would be to buy two at full price - one for them and one to give it out as a "I-saw-this-and-thought-of-you" friend gift.

Posted by Conn Carroll at May 7, 2007 12:45 PM