May 31, 2007

5/31: We've Seen This Movie Before ...

Reading through conservative anger at Pres. Bush over his immig. rhetoric, we are reminded that every time conservatives have felt betrayed by Bush Administration legislation (No Child Left Behind, the Medicare Drug Bill, etc.), Sen. Ted Kennedy (D-MA) hasn't been too far behind. Perhaps this is why John McCain's pairing w/Kennedy to promote the Senate immig. bill is such a death knell for his campaign: it reminds conservatives of everything they hate about Bush at the absolute nadir of his popularity. On the plus side, at least McCain (unlike the WH) isn't calling the base a bunch of racists. So he's got that going for him.

GOP FIELD: John And Ted's Excellent Adventure

RCP Blog's Tom Bevan looks at Intrade trends on the GOP '08ers including:

• Rudy [Giuliani]'s been on the slide since the first GOP debate at the Reagan Library on May 3, followed by the subsequent revelations about his contributions to Planned Parenthood.
• Fred Thompson had been bumping along in the mid-teens since the end of April until the middle of May. That was right around the time he launched his video response to Michael Moore which rang up hundreds of thousands of views over the following few days.
• Mitt Romney started picking up steam in the middle of the month, beginning with a Zogby poll on the 16th showing him surging to a small lead in Iowa, followed by his even more impressive 12-point lead in the Iowa Poll released on the 20th.
• You can pretty clearly pinpoint the beginning of John McCain's rather precipitous decline in the futures market to May 18, which was the day he stood with Ted Kennedy at a press conference to announce a grand bargain had been struck on immigration. It's been all downhill since.

GIULIANI: Conservometer

Promoting a Power Line forum thread titled Social Conservatives Back Giuliani, Power Line's John Hinderaker claims PL was among the first to argue Giuliani could diffuse social issues by preaching the virtues of federalism. Hinderaker notes: "Interesting--so far, the commenters on Giuliani's Forum site are pretty much unanimously OK with his position as laid out above. That could change as more comments come in, of course, but I think readers of this site and participants in the Candidates' Forum are a much better barometer of conservative opinion than suppositions by liberal reporters about how social conservatives think."

MCCAIN: Not Dead Yet

AmSpec Blog's John Tabin links to TownhallDean Barnett 's contest promoting the end of John McCain's candidacy and comments: "This strikes me as even more premature than Mickey Kaus's declaration in December of 2003 that 'Democratic Senator John Kerry, once proclaimed the frontrunner in the press, faces not just defeat but utter humiliation in the New Hampshire primary.' It's awfully early to be writing any top-tier candidate's obituary."

ROMNEY: Anti, Repeat, Anti-McCain-Kennedy

Captain's Quarters got 15 minutes of facetime with Mitt Romney and reports: "Romney gave an impressive performance as a man with a solid grasp on policy -- and of someone completely confident in his ability to master it." CQ pressed Romney on immigration and got a clarification:

When I asked him to reconcile his support of the 2006 McCain-Kennedy bill with his rejection of this year's proposal, he quickly corrected me and insisted he never endorsed last year's legislation. While he has been accurately quoted as calling its approach "reasonable", the same interview also has him refusing to endorse it. His staffers emphasized the point with me later.

CQ also posts audio from a Romney townhall in IA. In other Romney media, Daniel Drezner makes the libertarian case for Romney at Bloggingheads.tv.

Back in SC, the Daily Chaser responds to RCP Blog claims that the Mormon issue is hurting Romney in the state: "RCP is entitled to view the Mormon issue any way it want to. But I want to see them cite clear scientific evidence such as polling that clearly demonstrates that Mormonism is the reason for Mitt Romney's inability to climb in S.C. polls ... Don't get me wrong. I think that the Mormon issue certainly will affect some voters in S.C., but just because our we fly the Confederate Flag on State House grounds does not mean that we are all a bunch of bigots down here."

F. THOMPSON: He's Got Communication Skills, Unlike Some GOPers We Know

NRO's Jim Geraghty's Fred Thompson sources dispute Politicoreports Thompson will announce his candidacy 7/4. From the mystery source: "There will be no July 4 announcement... There was some discussion of a June 4 beginning of fundraising; that's the date checks will be collected. I suspect that's where there was some confusion."

In other Thompson reporting, SC's Daily Chaser claims Thompson has contacted state GOP chair Katon Dawson to inquire about doing a fundraiser for the SCGOP. The DC comments: "You heard that right. Thompson wants to raise cash for the party when you would think he'd be raising cash for himself. A way to suck up to the party and grab some of the key activists away from McCain and Romney? You be the judge."

And at Power LinePaul Mirengoff shares his Thompson impressions after attending a dinner with Thompson and his wife: "First, Thompson exudes the same great presence and ease of manner in person that he does on television. He's likeable and quick with the good one-liner. Second, Thompson's instincts are, with the notable exception of campaign finance reform, soundly conservative. ... Third, on the evidence of last night, Thompson needs to sharpen his message and his presentation skills."

Non-first hand Thompson reactions include:

• Townhall's Mary Katharine Ham: "He's got the charisma of Rudy with better social-con creds than most of the pack. It's a powerful combo, but will he meet expectations? We've been mooning over him for so long, couldn't he end up being a let-down."
• AmSpec Blog's Philip Klein: "My issue with Thompson has nothing to do with him personally, but that he lacks executive experience and beyond a mostly conservative voting record, he really didn't accomplish much in the Senate. After six years of a president who is a disengaged executive, I think it's really important to have somebody who is detail oriented and interested in not only setting a policy, but making sure that it gets implemented properly."
• AmSpec Blog's Hunter Baker: "Thompson lacks executive experience, but what he has in spades is what George W. Bush lacks completely: communication skills. ... Any lack of executive experience on Thompson's part is more than compensated for by his gifts in presenting himself and his positions."
• Professor Bainbridge lists reasons he's happy Thompson is running, including: "The last President I really liked also was a former actor ... Lifetime 86 rating from the American Conservative Union - solid but not rigidly conservative. ... Lifetime 5 rating from Americans for Democratic Action, so he'll really annoy the far left. ... He bugs James Dobson, who bugs me."

Thompson's entry into the race also may be opening some old wounds between Townhall and RedState. After Townhall's Hugh Hewitt calls for more coverage of Thompson's indolent lymphoma RedState's Erick Erickson replies:

I know we're not supposed to talk about Mitt [Romney]'s religion. Hugh has made that very clear that even thinking about it makes us religious bigots. I am wondering, however, if when Hugh is not out pimping Mitt, will he be flagging Fred Thompson's health with wide speculation from now till the general election - a countdown till the end of remission perhaps? ... I expect the Democrats to make an issue of Fred's health, just as I would expect the Democrats to make an issue of Romney's religion. I just would think the GOP would not go there, even when flaking for their guy.

CLINTON: Opportunity Knocks

TAPPED's Dana Goldstein sees opportunity for Hillary Clinton in SCOTUS' "disastrous" 5-4 decision on gender discrimination: "In a characteristically withering dissent, Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg invited Congress to overturn the ruling. ... As I've written before, Clinton has an excellent track record on workplace discrimination, and recent reporting about her time on the Wal-Mart board of directors suggests a long-running commitment to the intersection of labor and feminist issues. Clinton's proposed Paycheck Fairness Act strikes right at the heart of yesterday's decision, making it illegal to penalize employees for sharing salary information with one another and easier for workers to file complaints of long-term discrimination."

At Talk Left, Jeralyn Merritt urges readers to vote before HRC closes her campaign song voting. Merritt voted for "Ain't No Stopping Us Now" but also suggests the Chiffons' One Fine Day and Bruce Springsteen's Tougher Than the Rest.

Not in a pro-HRC mood, The Left Coaster's Steve Soto asks: "Ever wonder why the Clintons never seemed to be out in front of Democratic efforts to fight the Bush Administration's illegal domestic spying and data mining efforts? ... Maybe it was because Bill and Hillary have accepted nearly a million dollars of free travel from the CEO of a firm engaged in data mining and the selling of consumer information to the DNC, and to known fraudsters.

DODD: But Will He Filibuster?

Chris Dodd opened up his 5/30 firedoglake chat with a video message including: "Today I want to talk to you about ending the Iraq war and an amendment that I will be introducing to the defense authorization bill this June. ... Half-measures and equivocations are not going to change our course in Iraq. If we are serious about ending the war, Congress must stand up to this President's failed policy now and do what needs to be done. ... The Dodd Amendment will improve accountability, provide a timetable for the Iraqi government to get its house in order, and safely and responsibly redeploy our troops and bring them home. Now is the time to responsibly bring an end to our involvement in another country's civil war while rebuilding our Reserve and Guard units."

Dodd's appearance garnered over 230 responses including:

• Your amendment is just what I want to see. Over and over until it's passed
• If pro-Occupation Senators find the votes to defeat your amendment, would you be willing to filibuster the Defense Appropriations Bill until the amendment were accepted or cloture invoked?
• Would you be willing to force a cloture vote to clearly delineate who cooperated and who obstructed your efforts to end the Iraq Occupation?
• Good for the Senator for clarifying that voting to defund is not voting to abandon the troops. That's a bogus argument and I wish other 08s would clarify that.
• This was really quite impressive! ... I think the Senator should move up to "first tier" instead of being somehow relegated to the "second tier" of candidates. His willingness to take a stand BEFORE the supplemental bill has really impressed me. Personally, Obama and Clinton's votes were too late, too safe.

At TAPPED notes Her Way co-author Jeff Gerth is married to a top Dodd aide and comments: "Now, in the world of punditry, such ties don't have to bind. People with skin in the game opine all the time. Gerth, to his credit, disclosed his wife's job at the end of Her Way, and even sat out reporting on the 1996 presidential campaign, during which Dodd chaired the Democratic National Committee, because of it."

EDWARDS: They Write Letters

At Calitics, Todd Beeton posts video of John Edwards responding to reader questions on health care reform and energy independence and at MyDDMatt Stoller thanks Edwards for writing a letter to the FCC asking them to set aside half of upcoming 700 megahertz spectrum auction for wholesalers "who can lease access to smaller start-ups, which has the potential to improve service to rural and underserved areas." Also Edwards wants "anyone winning rights to this valuable public resource should be required not to discriminate among data and services and to allow any device to be attached to their service."

OBAMA: Pro-Boondoggle

Despite testimonials from campaign staffers on how Barack Obama's health care plan "will help change the direction of this country" many in the netroots feel as though the plan fits into an emerging theme. Bleeding Heartland rounds up left reax and adds:

But I worry about Obama's decision to propose a plan that's less than universal. Your starting point for negotiations shouldn't be the reasonable compromise you think Congress might pass. This taps into my biggest concern about Obama, my sense that in his devotion to "consensus," he would give half the game away before negotiations with Congress even begin. The president needs to aim high.

Not on health care, The Huffington Post's Marc Gunther examines why Obama is introducing a coal liquification bill "that would promote the use of coal, the dirtiest of all fossil fuels, as a transportation fuel and make global warming a lot worse." Gunther explains: "Yes, Illinois, Obama's home state, is, like Kentucky and Wyoming, a major coal-producing state. ... I take no pleasure is saying that this will damage Obama. I read his autobiography, Dreams From My Father, a few months ago, and came away very impressed. I want to believe that he is a different kind of political leader. But by supporting a Big Coal boondoggle, Obama is not simply disappointing those voters who care about environmental issues."

RICHARDSON: Dems Can Be Clever Too

MyDD's Chris Bowers does admit Bill Richardson's "clever" bio ads may be the reason he is rising in IA and NH but still advises: "One thing we have looked for in bio ads has been for candidates to self-identify as Democrats, something which Richardson does not do in these ads. While, to a certain extent, that might explain why these ads do so well among Republicans, I can't imagine such self-identification would hurt him."

IMMIGRATION: Pretty Stupid

Conservatives are stepping up efforts to puch back against Bush Administration efforts to portray them as racists. The Right Angle's Lisa De Pasquale links to a Center for Equal Opportunity chairman Linda Chavezop-ed calling Senate immigration opponents 'xenophobes' and responds:

Does she seriously believe this? Many conservatives (myself included) went to bat for Linda when she was nominated for Labor Secretary. She was then forced to withdraw her name over criticism that she had allowed an illegal immigrant to stay in her home. It seems that we were wrong to jump to her defense. Many of us viewed it as an isolated incident because she was just helping a (supposed) battered woman in need. Now it seems as if it is actually a part of her philosophy on the rule of law and our country's borders.

Power Line's Paul Mirengoff adds: "Living in the Washington, D.C. area, I have regular contact with members of the recent-immigrant community, and have provided free legal services to several illegal immigrants. It would be a mistake to demonize these people, but just as big a mistake to romanticize them, or to label as "know-nothings" or "nativists" those concerned about some consequences of their mass influx into this country."

At RedState, Robert Bluey laments the 'irreparable rift' Bush has caused among GOPers: "In my nearly six years living in Washington, all under the reign of President Bush, I can't recall a time when conservatives and the Bush Administration have clashed so virulently. ... The debate over immigration -- coming during a low point in Bush's presidency -- has the likes of Sen. Teddy Kennedy and the National Council of La Raza agreeing more often with the Bush administration than conservatives. That spells trouble."

AmSpec Blog's Quin Hillyer seconds Bluey thoughts: "Bluey is absolutely right. ... Michael Gerson, and conservative columnist/activist Linda Chavez, and others on Bush's side in this debate have consistently not just argued their case but resorted to name-calling or other insults against fellow conservatives who favor a tougher stance against illegal immigrants. The president's critics from the right, on the other hand, have generally been loud but not insulting. ... What arrogance! What cynicism! What mean-spiritedness! This is not good for the conservative movement."

Conservatives also saved plenty of criticism for MSM coverage of the immigration bill. The Corner's Kate O'Beirne blogs: "Today's Washington Post has two stories on the immigration bill and neither accurately reports its provisions. Peter Baker and Pamela Constable don't rely on the bill's supporters to misrepresent it, they both incorrectly state that fines and benchmarks precede legal status."

The Corner's Rich Lowry also fact checks a "pro-amnesty activist" who claims "Amnesty is where someone comes in illegally and gets in front of others and immediately becomes legal." Lowry responds: "Again, that's exactly what the bill does. It has some hoops if people what to get a Z visa or green card, but illegals are immediately granted forgiveness for being here illegally and don't have to pay any penalties to stay here legally. How stupid do these people think we are?"

IMMIGRATION II: Will WSJ Cowards Debate NRO Racists?

Still seething over WSJ editorial board claims that opponents of the Senate immigration bill are "foaming at the mouth" NRO's editors have challenged the WSJ editors to debate the bill at a neutral venue with a moderator of WSJ's choosing. NRO writes: "We urge them to come out of the shadows, and hope defending the bill in this forum is not another one of those jobs that no American will do. (We would challenge President Bush himself to a debate on behalf of the conservatives he has maligned, but we fear he hasn't read the bill.) So who at the Journal is willing to debate the merits of the legislation rather than cast aspersions from afar?"

PROSECUTOR PURGE: Summer Blockbuster Preview

Talking Points Memo's Ben Craw summarizes the latest TPMtv episode which previews the coming week in DOJ scandal:

• First - there's the internal Department of Justice investigation. ... The investigation is being conducted by the Inspector General and the Office of Professional Responsibility. Even though it's going on in the background, it is for the moment the only investigation that has the prospect of leading to criminal charges. If the Inspector General makes a criminal referral, that's when a special prosecutor would be brought in.
• Next up - the no-confidence vote concerning Alberto Gonzales to be held in the Senate. This is scheduled to take place once the Senate finishes its immigration bill, which means probably the second or third week of June. ... The resolution has no actual, concrete effect; it's purely symbolic.
• Last but certainly not least - next week, June 5th, any close follower of the U.S. Attorney scandal will be eagerly anticipating the testimony before the Senate Judiciary Committee of two key people. One is Bradley Schlozman, the former U.S. Attorney in Kansas City and former DOJ Civil Rights Division head who's at the center of the Justice Department's efforts to suppress minority voter turnout. To make it even more interesting, Schlozman will be joined by the man he replaced in Kansas City, former U.S. Attorney Todd Graves.

THOUGHT OF THE DAY: Dilbert Destined For Global Warming Hell

Dissenting from Al Gore's "truth" that global warming is a "moral issue" over which there is "no longer any serious debate" Dilbertblog studies up on the issue and concludes:

• The earth is getting warmer, and human activity is an important part of it.
• The people who are well-informed about global warming are overstating the case by conflating the well-studied fact of human-created warming with the less-than-certain predictions of what happens because of the extra warming. And there's a tendency to leave out the "why I might be wrong" parts of the argument. I call that bullshit.
• The people who say global warming is irrelevant because we should all be recycling and using less fossil fuel for other reasons anyway don't understand the size of the problem. Ordinary conservation in the industrialized nations won't put a dent in it.
• The people predicting likely doom because of global warming have not made their case. Humans are incredibly adaptive. And technological breakthroughs happen in steps, not predictable straight lines. Every other predicted type of global doom hasn't happened because of human resourcefulness. No climate model can predict human resourcefulness.
• My best guess for the future is that global warming continues, conservation doesn't take hold in the less developed countries because of simple economics and corruption, and something "big" has to be done by the richest players. I think that something "big" will be mammoth carbon dioxide "scrubbers" to clean the atmosphere. It's technically possible, but not economical. The economical part will either be solved or become a moot point if the alternative is global annihilation.

LEST WE FORGET: Could You Point To The Angus Area?

Above the Law's 5/29 "lawsuit of the Day" highlights Carl's Jr's efforts to shut down a Jack in the Box ad campaign that implies "its Angus burgers are made from, shall we say, the least desirable area of the cow." ATL comments: "We don't know about you guys, but Carl's, Jr. and Jack in the Box both kinda taste like that part of the cow to us. It's all about the In and Out Burger."

And don't forget this classic Jack ad.

Posted by Conn Carroll at May 31, 2007 12:40 PM