5/29: Why Obama Will Win (Again)

With new books rehashing old worries about Hillary Clinton, we are reminded yet again that if the Dem primary really will come down to Iraq, Barack Obama will cruise to the nomination. Recommending Her Way: The Hopes and Ambitions of Hillary Rodham Clinton, Arianna Huffington recounts how both candidates wait til the final minutes to cast their votes against funding the Iraq war, but then goes on to only criticize HRC for not leading on the issue. Also at MyDD, Matt Stoller shares his recent efforts convincing a fellow Harvard grad that Obama's foreign policy rhetoric is not as progessive as his image. Stoller laments: "[H]e acknowledged that Obama's rhetoric was at odds with what he believed about Obama. And yet, he just didn't care."

CLINTON: The Record Shows She Took The Blows

Jeff Gerth and Don Van Natta's Hillary Clinton 'portrait' Her Way received few positive reviews, but still allowed HRC doubters a chance to rehash established objections. First though, Clinton defender Garance Franke-Ruta delivers the harshest verdict on the book itself at TAPPED:

I know it's the Clintons we're talking about, so that nastiness should never come as a shock, but these are Timesmen, of whom I would expect better, even in their private efforts. The introductory chapters are jam-packed with the sort of dated '90s aspersions that have been mocked into the ground this decade, as just about every hoary anti-Clinton cliche you've ever heard is trotted out and applied to events across the span of Clinton's life. You almost feel bad for the authors for failing to follow the change in the media climate.

At MyDD, Matt Stoller laments the books release since it allows Chris Matthews and his "pundit freaks" to focus an entire show on "trivial nonsense from the 1990s." Atrios links commenting: "Why I Didn't Want Hillary To Run ... Because the pundits are going to make us live through the 90s again."

At the newly redesigned Huffington Post, Arianna doesn't think all the issues raised by Her Way are trivial: "Forget the stuff about Monica, Gennifer Flowers, Vince Foster, Hillary's record as a lawyer, or the Clintons' 20-year plan for both of them to become president. The money chapters are the ones on Iraq. When it comes to Hillary's shape-shifting stances, explanations, and votes on the war, Gerth and Van Natta offer a definitive and chilling portrait of a politician solely driven by political expedience -- even when it comes to life and death matters such as Iraq. It's a portrait that will likely prove to be an anvil around her neck throughout the 2008 campaign, unless she can somehow transform herself from political weather vane to political leader."

Also hitting Clinton on Iraq, The Left Coaster's soccerdad blogs: "Hillary Clinton's cynical vote against the Iraq funding bill encapsulates the approach of the democratic leadership's approach to the Iraq war. Clinton sat back showed no leadership, did not shape the debate or policy and then when it was clear that the funding measure would pass, then voted against it. This puts her in the position of claiming she voted against the funding thus casting herself as antiwar without leaving much of a trail freeing her to put any spin on it she wants."

CLINTON II: Early Voting Makes Early Wins Irrelevant?

MyDD's Chris Bowers assures readers it is possible for Clinton to have both the highest percentage of "hard" and ("every single poll shows a smaller percentage of Clinton supporters indicating that they might change their minds than supporters of other candidates") and "soft" ("it is also true that Clinton is the candidate who benefits most when polls push basically undecided leaners to make a decision") supporters and explains how it could effect the primary:

On the one hand, it means that Clinton's numbers have the most immediate potential to drop, but on the other hand it also means that her bottom level of support is much higher than it is for other candidates. ... This could potentially allow her to receive delegates virtually everywhere no matter what happens in the early states. Combine this advantage with what I imagine will be significant super delegate support, and she is already pretty much guaranteed to have quite a few delegates after February 5th.

Also looking forward to 2/5 Bleeding Heartland comments on New York Times reports of an HRC memo pointing out millions of absentee ballots will be cast before the IA and NH outcomes are known: "This is in my mind the biggest current problem for Edwards and Obama as they try to derail the Hillary inevitability train. They have to hope that she drops in the national polls well before the end of the year. Otherwise she could rack up a big lead in early voting in places like Florida, California, and New York, helping her compensate for potentially poor performances in Iowa and New Hampshire."

DODD: Pro-Actively Interesting

Official Chris Dodd blogger Matt Browner Hamlin posts video of Dodd speaking at a house party in Laconia, NH at Blue Hampshire. BH administrator elwood adds: "Dodd gets a lot of front-page attention here -- because the Dodd campaign pro-actively provides interesting material."

EDWARDS: English First

MyDD's Nate Willems shares highlights from John and Elizabeth Edwards townhall in Independence, IA, including:

• The events this weekend are touted as discussions on "America's Commitment to Veterans." Senator Edwards spoke for about 10 minutes on the significance of this Memorial Day weekend, outlined his ideas to care for veterans returning from war, and noted his disappointment with the U.S. Senate and their recent passage of continued funding for the war in Iraq.
• The second question was about "undocumented aliens." Senator Edwards said that we should do more to "protect our southern border," and indicated a willingness to build a fence in some places. However, he stated that the idea of building a fence the entire length of the Mexican border is "crazy." In speaking about a path to earned citizenship for illegal immigrants, and this received as much or more applause than anything else, Edwards said that citizenship should be conditioned on learning the English language.
• My father asked Senator Edwards why he should caucus for him over candidates like Biden and Richardson with more foreign policy experience. ... He cited the long history that both Rumsfeld and Cheney have had in the foreign policy establishment as evidence that experience does not necessarily translate into a successful presidency. Edwards certainly did not seal the deal with Dad, but my father did say he was "impressed" that not a single hair on Edwards' head was out of place - assuredly due to the $400 haircuts.

Not in IA, Andrew Sullivan responds to a Young Whippersnapper defense of Edwards "uncomfortable"ness with homosexuals. YW writes: "John Edwards may not be perfect, but let's not call him a bigot or a dishonest supporter of gay rights, especially when the other party is built on bigotry and disdain for homosexuals." AS responds: "The rampant homophobia among Christianist Republicans is not a get-off-free card for Democrats. Or did we learn nothing from the Clinton years?"

OBAMA: Kid Tested, Boomer Approved

MyDD's Matt Stoller links to New York Timesreports on Congressional efforts to subsidize coal liquification as an alternative fuel and notes: "Obama is one of the Senators pushing this. Coal liquification plants are a horrible idea. ... Last week, I spoke to a friend who graduated from Harvard Law and just got done clerking for a high level judge. He's smart and highly credentialled, and he supports Obama because he thinks Obama doesn't believe in American exceptionalism and will decolonize our foreign policy. I walked him through the rhetoric which showed him that this was just not true, and he acknowledged that Obama's rhetoric was at odds with what he believed about Obama. And yet, he just didn't care. He just offered that Obama was saying this because he had to say it to get elected.

Back in Hanover, NH, BuckeyeStateBlog reporting for Blue Hampshire was struck not just by the size of Obama's crowds, but also the age: "Obama has really brought out the baby boomers today as well."

RICHARDSON: Is There A Worse Kind Of Sports Bigamy?

In IA, non-baseball fan Bleeding Heartland got the following email from her brother following Bill Richardson's 5/27 Meet The Press performance: "It was also funny to hear Richardson say that he was a life-long Boston Red Sox fan, yet Russert then pulled out Richardson's book and read a passage in which Richardson said that his favorite team was the New York Yankees."

BH comments: "What I really want to know is, why would Richardson write in a book that the Yankees are his favorite team if he's really a Red Sox fan? And if he's not really a Red Sox fan, why would he claim to be, knowing that a journalist could open his book and read a reference to the Yankees? ... On one level, this baseball team business is trivia. But anyone who wants to be the Democratic nominee better be able to handle a tough television interview from Russert or anyone else."

GOP FIELD: Paul/Tancredo in '08!!!

Blog P.I.'s Bill Beutler combs through the 5/07 GOP Bloggers straw poll cross tabs to demonstrate why Ron Paul's victory should not be taken seriously: "Unlike supporters of the realistic candidates, Ron Paul supporters apparently would not vote for any other GOP candidate in the Republican primary - though intriguingly, a minority would consider Tancredo. ... I submit this as fair evidence that Ron Paul's online base of support is not drawn from actual Republican party primary voters. Activists for every other candidate have their fallbacks, nemeses and frenemies, but no other group is so far outside the mainstream as the activists for Ron Paul."

BROWNBACK: Not Winning Anyone Over On Immigration Anyway

Race 4 '08s Kavon Nikrad has photos and video from the 'grand opening' of Sam Brownback's West Des Moines, IA, headquarters and blogs: "I am always amazed by the youth and enthusiasm of the Brownbackers I have come across on the campaign trail. The median age of the horde of kids there to support Sen. Brownback had to be no greater than 20. And once again, my ear are still ringing from the fiery chants of, 'We back Brownback! We back Brownback!'"

Guesting at Right Wing News, Rob Bluey was less impressed with Brownback's IA presence: "As the Senate was voting on important amendments to the immigration bill yesterday, long-shot presidential candidate Sam Brownback was off on the campaign trail taking a "whirlwind tour of Iowa." Brownback's absence meant he could avoid a vote on stripping the bill of its amnesty section -- the most contentious aspect of the legislation."

GIULIANI: Free Rudy

The Brody File reports on a "growing network of activists who are starting to take pro-active steps to shoot down a [Rudy] Giuliani nomination." Brody identifies a weekly Paul Weyrich hosted luncheon at the Free Congress Foundation that distributes flyers including: "Rudy Giuliani is wrong on all of the social issues, is wrong on the Second Amendment, and is pretty much a blank slate on all other issues of importance to conservatives."

Brody comments: "What can the Giuliani campaign do to stop this movement? Will the conservative grassroots really be able to take him down?"

MCCAIN: Not Dead Yet

John McCain scored points with RedStaters over his dust up with Barack Obama on Iraq war funding, especially for his ending line: "By the way, Senator Obama, it's a 'flak' jacket, not a 'flack' jacket." Streiff quotes Toby Keith: "I ain't as good as I once was. But I'm as good once as I ever was."

ROMNEY: Conservative For MA

A '94 campaign flyer highlighting all the differences between Mitt Romney and Sen. Ted Kennedy (D-MA) is popping up on conservative blogs. The Brody File links and comments: "Romney has taken a lot of heat for changing his position on abortion. But you have to wonder: Maybe Romney's been a conservative all along. It's just that in liberal Massachussets, to get elected, sometimes you have to bend a little more than you want to." Race 4 '08s Jason adds: "It's pretty clear, beyond the MSM/McCain bait, Romney has been pretty consistent on his positions. I highly doubt anyone in 94 looked at this flier and walked away thinking Romney was a liberal."

At Townhall, Dean Barnett posts video of Ben Affleck telling Bill Maher "The Mormonism thing is really suspect," and responds: "I'm not screaming racism. I'm not even insinuating racism. ... I am noting, however, ... it is acceptable in the mainstream to say thing about Mormons that wouldn't be acceptable regarding any other minority. Can you imagine someone like Affleck saying in regards to a different candidate, "The Muslim thing is really suspect" or "The Jewish thing is really suspect" and not getting called on it?"

F. THOMPSON: Pro-Yahoo

The Corner's Kathryn Jean Lopez links to Fred Thompson's Memorial Day thoughts on NRO and comments: "You get the impression via these commentaries he might not forget or dismiss his conservative friends when and if the time comes he's in the White House. Because he actually thinks they have something important to say (those damn yahoos) and he'd probably be surrounded by a few of them from the beginning."

IRAQ: You Get Out Of War With The President You've Got

In her "resignation letter as the 'face' of the American anti-war movement" Cindy Sheehan posts at Daily Kos: "I have endured a lot of smear and hatred since Casey was killed and ... since I renounced any tie I have remaining with the Democratic Party, I have been further trashed on such "liberal blogs" as the Democratic Underground. ... It amazes me that people who are sharp on the issues and can zero in like a laser beam on lies, misrepresentations, and political expediency when it comes to one party refuse to recognize it in their own party. Blind party loyalty is dangerous whatever side it occurs on. ... I am going to take whatever I have left and go home. I am going to go home and be a mother to my surviving children and try to regain some of what I have lost."

Not giving up on Dems, but still ready to criticize them, Talk Left's Big Tent Democrat takes on Digby for suggesting bloggers should not reinforce "GOP memes about Democratic 'cowardice'." BTD blogs: "What is Digby suggesting? That the blogs/Netroots not give its true opinions? That we pull our punches? This is a very very dangerous game Digby is suggesting. For what do the blogs really have going for them? Integrity. If we don't have that, we have nothing. We become the Right blogs. This is terrible thinking, especially coming from our best blogger."

Also in a questioning mood, TAPPED's Adele Stan links to This American Life suggestions that the US has "some sort of moral obligation" to help Iraq after the invasion and blogs: "As well-meaning people scream for an immediate withdrawal, I keep thinking of another Muslim country the U.S. helped break, and then turned away from, leaving behind nothing but a pile of rubble and portable military hardware in the hands of rival ethnic groups. ... The vacuum left by the U.S. abandonment of the people of Afghanistan, after having armed its warlords to the teeth to serve as our proxies in their war against the Soviet Union, was ultimately filled by al Qaeda, which found the Taliban's Afghanistan a most accommodating landscape from which to launch a global insurgency of terror against the West."

Atrios responds: "I understand where Adele is coming from. We're good liberals, we gaze on the horror that we (yes, all of us) are responsible for, and are compelled to try to fix it. To make it better. ... The reality is George Bush and his merry band of incompetent psychopaths are in power for the next 20 months. 20 more months of the war-as-product-for-domestic-consumption rather than as an occupation to be understood. ... And 20 months from now when President Wise and Benevolent Democrat takes office there will be no political interest in helping Iraq. ... The fact is that right now the choice is, as it has always been, between Bush's war and getting out. There's no Peter Beinart's war, there's no Tom Friedman's war, there's no Adele Stan's war. There is no good liberal way out of this mess."

IMMIGRATION: Wash, Rinse, Repeat ...

Conservative bloggers John Hawkins, Rob Bluey, Saul Anuzis, Erick Erickson,Jim Hoeft , Matt Hurly, Dave Burris, Mario Delgado, and Andrew Richardson have joined forces to urge their readers to sign the No Amnesty Petition which reads in part:

The rule of law is vital to the success and character of our nation. I strongly urge our nations leaders to oppose the Ted Kennedy Amnesty Bill currently being considered by the United States Senate. Almost two decades ago, amnesty was attempted, it failed. Repeating that mistake will do nothing to secure our borders today. ... We must take steps to secure our border, but amnesty is not the way. Our message is simple, do not support amnesty.

Guesting at Right Wing News, Bluey goes on to question Maj. Leader Mitch McConnell's (R-KY) judgment after reports McConnell intended to vote for the immigration bill. From Bluey: "What a tremendous disappointment. McConnell, who is up for re-election next year, should know better."

More satisfied with the status quo, Sam Brownback blogger Leon Wolf makes the case against supporting a primary opponent for immigration bill sponsor Sen. Jon Kyl (R-AZ) at RedState: "Let me say at the outset that I get single-issue voting. ... I will absolutely not pull the lever for any candidate that either (1) does not have a pro-life voting record, or (2) does not profess themselves as being opposed to legalized abortion. ut I think it's also relevant that you've never seen me go after Lisa Murkowski, KBH, John Sununu, Ted Stevens (for abortion), or the Maine sisters on the front page. Issues don't get dealt with outside of a voting coalition."

Finally, Kausfiles links National Journal's Clive Crook's questions about what happens to the "2 million" immigrants who enter the country after the 1/1/07 deadline under the current immigration proposal and comments:

Of course the remaining post-January illegals won't be deported, any more than all the current pre-January illegals will have to be deported if Congress doesn't pass the "comprehensive" bill. They will live "in the shadows." Then, in 10 years, with millions of new illegal shadow-dwellers there will be responsible bipartisan proposals, which you would be a yahoo to oppose, for another semi-amnesty. Potential illegals know this, one reason why they will keep coming. (That's the pattern after amnesties, it seems).

THOUGHT OF THE DAY: Can't Wait For '08

Looking back at a successful effort by Digg readers to end management crack down on Digital Millenium Copyright Act violations, The Huffington Post's David Allen writes:

What I see in this story is a trend that started with the first word spoken by a human: Informational technology has been a democratizing force, shaping political reality in its own image. The further we advance our capacity to communicate, the more responsive leaders must be to that communication, if they wish to retain power. ... If the Digg revolt teaches us anything, it's that our own system of government has some fundamental anachronisms. The technology exists to enable us to give our feedback on governmental performance instantly, rather than having to wait several years for an election. There is no longer any excuse to allow a President whose approval rating is apparently lower than 30 percent, for example, to remain in office, where he or she can continue to do the things that caused the low approval rating in the first place.

LEST WE FORGET: Na Nana Na Na

Freely admitting his "trash-talk" is aimed at Daily Kos readers, Instapundit posts images of the banner scorecards for the One Billion Bulbs campaign that show Instapundit readers have removed the equivalent of 66.19 cars from the road compared to Daily Kos' 8.78 cars. Instapundit cracks: "Several readers wonder if there's anything geekier than enviro-trash-talk about compact fluorescent bulbs. Well, not much, probably. But what's your point?