May 17, 2007

5/17: Who Cares What You Think?

As conservative bloggers vent their disaproval of the Senate's immigration compromise, The Blogometer wonders why more of them haven't joined RedState's campaign to keep Rep. Ken Calvert (R-CA) off the Approps Cmte. While Rudy Giuliani aide Patrick Ruffini is certainly right (below) that conserv. bloggers will be more effective once they have their own Jim Webbs and Jon Testers to point to, those against the immigration plan (but silent on the Calvert campaign) ought to ask themselves why GOPers would listen to them on issues as important as immigration if they won't respect their wishes on an Approps Cmte assignment.

DEM FIELD: SC Was To Bush As FL Is To ...

MyDD's Chris Bowers averages out polls since 4/1 for each of the early primary/caucus states:

IA, 1/7: Edwards 27%, Clinton 24%, Obama 21%
NH, 1/15: Clinton 35%, Edwards 24%, Obama 21%
NV 1/19: Clinton 36%, Obama 17%, Edwards 14%
SC, 1/22: Clinton 31%, Obama 27%, Edwards 18%
FL, 1/29: Clinton 39%, Obama 18%, Edwards 13%
MI, 1/29: Clinton 34%, Obama 25%, Edwards 18%

Bowers observes:

• Clinton has not been this high in the national polling averages since late February. However, it should be noted that her late February lead was larger than her current edge, because Obama has also risen during that time period.
• Florida looks like a pretty nice firewall for Clinton right now. Even if she is shut out of Iowa and New Hampshire, she can retreat to Florida (and, possibly, Nevada) as a means of generating momentum for February 5th.
• The low African-American populations in Iowa and New Hampshire are bad for Obama and Clinton, and good for Edwards.

Edwards also won MyDD's latest reader poll, (Edwards 41%, Obama 31%, Richardson 10%). Bowers adds: "It is particularly interesting how Richardson is widely viewed as an acceptable candidate, but has relatively few commenters and diarists directly promoting him."

IA CAUCUS: Hopeful Spending In Hiawatha

Bleeding Heartland studies candidate 1Q FEC reports and notes:

• Obama has spent a huge amount of money here (over $630,000), far more than any other contender. True, some of this money seems to be for consulting related to events held in other states, but Obama also has the largest staff in Iowa so far ($152,966 in payroll for 52 Iowa staffers).
• Edwards spent the second-largest amount in Iowa during the first quarter, with more than $188,000 total, including $87,850 in salary for 20 staffers.
• Clinton spent over $123,000 in Iowa during the first quarter, including $68,550 in salary to 15 staffers.

CLINTON: Good Golly, Miss Molly!

Skippy the Bush Kangaroo has YouTube's up of his suggestions for Hillary Clinton's theme song, including: Sammy Davis Jr. - I Gotta Be Me, Elton John - The Bitch Is Back, Ace of Base - Never Gonna Say I'm Sorry, Bruce Springsteen - Devil With A Blue Dress.

DODD: Staying Up Stream

Chris Dodd official blogger Matt Browner Hamlin posts the first ten minutes of a live streamed Q&A from Dodd's post Feingold-Reid web chat at Blue Hampshire.

EDWARDS: A Good Gordon Gecko

John Edwards reminds Huffington Post readers that "Memorial Day is a time of remembrance for those who paid the ultimate price for our freedom." Edwards urges: "This year, I am calling on all Americans to use their Memorial Day Weekend not only for celebration and time with family and friends, but also for a deeper purpose: to honor the memory of the fallen by acting, as patriots, to honor troops today -- to end the war and bring them home."

Also at HuffPo, Cenk Uyger defends Edwards from GOP hypocrisy charges: "Look, I'm not a big Edwards fan. And when he said he joined a hedge fund to learn about the poor, I laughed out loud (a rare actual lol). ... But what you can't question is his devotion to fighting poverty. I don't care why you think he's doing it, at least he's doing it. What are the Republican candidates doing to fight poverty? ... Doesn't it seem really funny to even consider asking Republican candidates what they are doing to help the poor?"

GORE: Still Not Running

BloggerJohn at Daily Kos links to a preview of 5/20's New York Timesitem including Al Gore saying: "I don't know why a 600-day campaign is taken as a given ... I don't have to play that game."

BJ comments: "The only conclusion that one can make is that if Gore really wants to change environmental policy, he needs to be in a position higher than Vice President. I know a lot of people think he can go on being an advocate--but there is a world of difference between being an advocate and an agent of change."

MyDD's Chris Bowers writes on Gore: "My basic feeling is that Gore won't run unless both Clinton and Obama noticeably stumble, and he could thus enter the campaign in first place."

OBAMA: Another Quarter-Life Crisis

MyDD's Joshua Gorman has a lengthy post on Barack Obama's "Youth Identity-Crisis" which he stresses: "is not at all a bad thing." More Gorman: "The Obama youth movement is by far largest and most energetic of all the 2000 presidential campaigns. ... Currently the national student network Students for Barack Obama (SFBO) is the official student wing of the Obama campaign, but as Barack Obama continues to rally young Americans from all sectors of the broad youth demographic with his fresh spirit and generational call-to-action, the question is arising as to how best to integrate this rapidly growing movement into the most effective and efficient structure ... The Obama campaign's youth identity-crisis is a quest for its greater structure and collective identity, one that will transcend and include its earlier developmental stages, and that will ultimately allow it to organize young Americans more powerfully, broadly, and successfully."

GIULIANI: From Ronny To Rudy

Race 4 '08s DaveG links to Youtube that splices together Rudy Giuliani's exchange with Ron Paul and a clip of Ronald Reagan's "I am paying for this microphone" moment from Nashua, NH, circa 1980. Dave comments: "Rudy Giuliani proved that he wasn't going to sit back and play by some set of effete, country club rules when another individual on the same stage was blaming America for the slaughter of thousands of U.S. civilians on 9/11. ... In so doing, Giuliani broke out of the pack, and out of a multi-month slump that had many questioning whether Rudy really wanted to be president. Any doubts on that subject were removed last night."

Giuliani followed up his debate win with a blogger conference call. Reports include:

• NRO's Jim Geraghty: "Jen Rubin ... asked about the Senate Iraq vote today. Rudy said the Democrats' position on Iraq is based not on a lack of patriotism or concern, but a level of denial of what we're facing. He cited the Fort Dix arrests, and said policymakers have to ask, 'will this [policy change] make them bold?'"
• Ankle Biting Pundits' Bull Dog Pundit on Giuliani's distinction between 'tortutr' and 'enhanced interrogation': "Rudy answered that you need to let the people involved decide. Said it should be "negotiated" and mentioned the Geneva convention. No bright line test, technique describing last night (waterboarding) is short of torture. Pretty much discounts McCain's theory that if we treat people badly then so will they, because they would do it no matter what."
• AmSpec Blog's Philip Klein: "I asked what his policy would be with regard to Israel, in light of today's events in Israel and the Palestinian territories ... Giuliani emphatically said "the ball is in the court of the Palestinian Authority." He rejected the idea of pressuring Israel into negotiating with a Palestinian government comprised of Hamas, and said "it does not make sense to sit across the bargaining table from people who want to destroy you" and added that it's "negotiating against yourself."
• NY Sun's Ryan Sager quoting Giuliani on Ron Paul: "The last time I heard something like that, it was the press release the Saudi prince put out after he gave me the $10 million for the Twin Towers fund."

HUCKABEE: HuckaVP

Townhall's Matt Lewis finds it "hard to imagine a scenario in which Mike Huckabee would win the nomination this year" but argues Huckabee has a "real future." More Lewis: "As a Christian conservative from the South, Huckabee might make a very attractive VP pick for Rudy or McCain."

PAUL: A Tipping Point

Tracking online Ron Paul fan manipulation of Digg, ABC News, and little green footballsBlog P.I. 's Bill Beutler comments: "At what point does the online support for libertarian Republican presidential candidate Ron Paul do his candidacy more harm than good? That is, when does his obviously devoted online fan base start to turn off uncommitted voters, rather than provide an example to follow? I think might just be getting to that point."

ROMNEY: Color Us Unsurprised

Race 4 '08s HeavyM celebrates Team Romney's successful "Sign Up America." HM comments: "Using organic debate parties across the country as a springboard, Team Mitt had the goal of signing up 24,000 new supporters in a 24-hour period. And by supporters, they meant volunteers or financial contributors. Honestly, I wasn't expecting them to meet what seemed a rather lofty goal."

THOMPSON: Somebody Loves Fred

A "prominent Evangelical leader" source of The Brody File says he's "very impressed" with Fred Thompson's knowledge on "issues that are important to Evangelicals." More Brody: "This leader didn't want to be identified because now is not the time to go public but suffice to say that he seems to be on board with the Fred Thompson campaign."

IRAQ: Back To The Drawing Board

Criticism of netroots supported Senators (Sens. Jim Webb (D-VA), Jon Tester (D-MT), and Sherrod Brown (D-OH)) who failed to vote in favor of the Reid-Feingold plan to end the Iraq war was light. Daily Kos' mcjoan simply lists all those who voted 'no' and comments: "Here are the Senators who voted no on Reid-Feingold today. Give them a call if they represent you and ask them to reconsider."

Talk Left's Big Tent Democrat was one of a few ready to criticize: "Today's vote on Reid-Feingold should have a salutary effect on the creeping hometeamism that had captured progressive activists and the Netroots and brings into stark relief what still ails the Democratic Party - political cowardice. ... It is clear that Jim Webb, Jon Tester, Claire McCaskill, Jack Reed, Carl Levin, et al, have no intention of leading on Iraq. Yet again, as in 2006, it will require the base of the Democratic Party to lead its leaders. This vote today leaves no doubt what must be done by progressives, the Democratic grassroots and the Netroots. We must all take on those segments of our Party who do not want to end the war, but rather merely say they want to end the war."

IMMIGRATION: No Deal

Conservative bloggers ar up in arms over the proposed immigration compromise emerging from the Senate. Reactions include:

• Power Line's John Hinderaker: "To me, the key is workplace enforcement. I don't think people come here from Latin America to go on welfare; they come for jobs. ... I'm afraid that no matter what the "compromise" ostensibly consists of, the feature that will actually be implemented is amnesty for the 12 million existing illegals, and everything else will fail when it comes time for implementation. I'm not holding my breath, for example, waiting for the already-mandated fence to be built."
• Michelle Malkin: "There have been seven illegal alien amnesties passed into law since 1986 ... Guess what? None -not one-of those amnesties was associated with a decline in illegal immigration. On the contrary, the number of illegal aliens in the U.S. has tripled since President Reagan signed the first amnesty in 1986. ... And as I've noted before, there is no such thing as a "temporary" amnesty."
• Townhall's Hugh Hewitt: "The GOP are sending around talking points attempting to make this "compromise" defensible, but it won't and shouldn't fly. Agreeing to it takes the party down the tubes on the issue of border security --because it doesn't provide what the public understands to be border security, a very long, very high fence with a very wide gate."
• Kausfiles: "This is looking more and more like the Bush administration's domestic version of Iraq: a big risky gamble, based on wishful thinking and nonexistent administrative competence, that will end in disaster."
• The Corner's Kate O'Beirne: "Some have convinced themselves that the measure represents a good trade, i.e. amnesty for 12 million in exchange for beefed -up enforcement ... Faith-based immigration reform! The "good trade" case is easier to make when the huge net costs of legalization are simply ignored. The fact that much of the improvements they seek could be achieved by enforcing current laws is also being ignored."
• The Corner's Mark Krikorian: "If Kate is right, and the Senate is going to repeat the 1986 "grand bargain" every senator needs to understand that he is voting to give legal status to terrorists - also just like in the 1986 amnesty. ... That amnesty program granted legal status to, among others, brothers Mohammed and Mahmoud Abouhalima, who were involved in the first World Trade Center attack. According to the 9/11 Commission staff report on the immigration histories of terrorists, the brothers received provisional legal status after claiming to be farmworkers.

Only Captain's Quarters wants a deal: "It doesn't seem that the conservatives do all that badly in this compromise. ... It's either a compromise structured along these lines, or no progress on border security for two years and a large gamble on retaking Congress and the White House in November 2008. This seems like a better deal."

BLOGGERS VS. BELTWAY: Calvert Must Be One Hell Of An Appropriator

Spurred by RedState's campaign to block Rep. Ken Calvert (R-CA) from elevation to Apps. Cmt., conservative bloggers continued to debate over tactics. Rudy Giuliani aide Patrick Ruffini blogs at Townhall advises: "The blogosphere has expended a lot of energy trying to convince politicians who aren't very ideological of the pressing need to control spending. Wouldn't that energy have been better spent recruiting, training, and electing a new generation of political leaders who believed in smaller government to the core? ... That means we need more activism, not less. It's what the netroots has done in elevating people like Jon Tester and Jim Webb who are far to the left of their respective states but convey a red state, tough-guy aura that trumps ideology. It's easier to influence policy when you've helped to put people you trust on the inside."

Responding to Ruffini, Townhall's Matt Lewis also like 'activism' but claims the argument is really over "whether or not conservative blogs should adopt the tactics and rhetoric of the Left. For example, is it appropriate to say you are 'Declaring War' on Republicans Members of Congress?"

Ruffini later argues that "the train" may have already "left the station in terms of open hostilities between the leading right-blogs and the Congressional committees" and adds: "For someone with my background, it pains me to watch this happen. But it may be inevitable. The Calvert appointment looks awful to anyone not steeped in years of experience on the Hill. ... Like it or not, the blogosphere is now a stakeholder in intra-party decision making. ... This is a two way street. We need to accept that bloggers won't agree with every decision, and when they don't, there needs to be open dialogue. On the official side, there needs to be a recognition that if you're justifying public decisions in ways that only you or paid staff can support, that's a problem. The rank-and-file are now the Republican Steering Committee's constituents too, not just Members."

Still not giving up on the Calvert fight, RedState's Erick Erickson names Rep. John McHugh (R-NY) as his latest phone call target and comments: "In light of the GOP disaster in New York last November, John McHugh (NY-23) would be a fool not to listen to you."

NSA: The Fate Of The Rule Of Law In This Country Is At Stake

Ex-DAG James Comey's 5/15 testimony on DOJ objections to the NSA's foreign phone call monitoring program drew wide netroots calls for further investigations into what actually happened. Reactions include:

• Think Progress' Peter Swine posts AG Alberto Gonzales testimony from '06 and makes the case there may be more "domestic spying programs" then have already been identified.
• Daily Kos' Kagro X blogs: "On Wednesday, March 10, 2004, the fate of the rule of law in this country was put in doubt by the thuggery of Alberto Gonzales and Andrew Card, acting on behalf of the White House and the President of the United States. ... Do we fully comprehend how close to the edge we came in the story he relates?"
• Talking Points Memo's Josh Marshall: "I think we need to know more about just what was being done with this program that would make Ashcroft put so much on the line."
• Glenn Greenwald: "Most of all, yesterday's hearing underscores how unresolved the entire NSA matter is -- how little we know (but ought to know) about what actually happened and how little accountability there has been for some of the most severe and blatant acts of presidential lawbreaking in the country's history. ... But the more important issue here, by far, is that we should not have to speculate in this way about how the illegal eavesdropping powers were used. ... Why don't we know -- a-year-a-half after this lawbreaking was revealed -- whether these eavesdropping powers were abused for improper purposes? Is anyone in Congress investigating that question?"
• The Center for Constitutional Rights' Shayana Kadidal at The Huffington Post: "We have always believed that the primary reason administration officials decided not to use the FISA statute to get warrants for the NSA program is because they wanted to target conversations even the FISA court wouldn't have approved of - attorneys speaking to their clients, journalists speaking to their sources. The government asserts - generally without a shred of evidence - that many of our clients are linked to terrorism. They've said the NSA program targets calls between Americans and foreigners linked to terrorism, and they've told Congress that they won't rule out listening to lawyers. All that means there is a grave risk that our privileged conversations were eavesdropped on."

THOUGHT OF THE DAY: Mocking Around The Clock

TAPPED's Garance Franke-Ruta on Mike Huckabee's Congress has "spent money like Edwards at a beauty shop" line:

This is awful for Edwards and bad for the Democrats more generally, in that Huckabee's joke conflates progressive tax policies ... with, to unpack the insult, the presumed vanity of a multi-millionaire. The phrase activates at least three anti-Democratic frames ... and does so very efficiently: the old saw about "tax and spend liberals" (evoked by "spends"); allusions to "limousine liberals" (evoked by the costs of the haircuts); and the ongoing and highly effective Republican effort to contest the masculinity of Democratic men who don't, say, drive tractors (evoked by the reference to the "beauty shop"). It's a perfect example of the classic G.O.P. tactic of turning an admittedly ridiculous, irrelevant cultural or personal attribute about a candidate into a metaphor for that person's policies, by slowly moving the mockery along from the personal to the political, until the candidate himself has become a joke. And once a candidate becomes a joke, the whole party, and what it stands for, begins to, too. ... Indeed, the fiestiness on display last night should serve as a wake-up call for people who think the 2008 contest against the G.O.P. is going to be a cake-walk, thanks to the weakness of the president, the example of the 2006 victories, and the alleged weakness of the Republican field."

LEST WE FORGET: Cavemen Are White

TAPPED's Kay Steiger second's George Lopez's complaint that, ""TV just became really, really white again," after his show was cancelled in favor of the Geico cavemen spinoff. Steiger adds: "Not to mention that, similar to other sitcoms that pair dopey, overweight comedians with model-like girlfriends and wives, the hairy cavemen are accompanied by thin, blond girlfriends."

Posted by Conn Carroll at May 17, 2007 12:53 PM