April 30, 2007

4/30: A Study In Contrast

Hillary Clinton may currently lead in recent CA polls, bit if the crowds at the CDP convention in San Diego, CA, are any indication, that will eventually change. The blogger coverage ofn the CDP offered up a rare glimpse of more establishement versus netroots takes on the campaign as the more established poltical operatives at California Majority Report (e.g. ex-Gray Davis aide Jason Kinney and CA Assembly Speaker Fabian Nunez dep CoS Steven Maviglio) blogged alongside the less experienced Calitics crew. The CMR bloggers were much more skeptical of Obama (noting, more than once, his decision not to face reporters), but both groups noted that the record attendance at the convo was decidedly pro-Obama.

CDP CONVO: WH Edition

According to The California Majority Report "a tremendous surge in energy and enthusiasm" among CA Dems led to an "all-time delegate attendance record" with "2,264 of the 2,801 CDP delegates registered" showing up in sunny San Diego, CA, for the 4/28, 4/29 proceedings. CMR hosted an online straw poll asking "Which prez candidate gave the best performance at Convention?" and Barack Obama was the run away winner:

Barack Obama      35%
John Edwards      27%
Hillary Clinton   14%
Bill Richardson   11%
Dennis Kucinich    6%
Chris Dodd         4%
Mike Gravel        3%

CMR's Jason Kinney filed a typical post reporting strong HRC organizational strength but also plenty of true Obama love: "Clinton exceeded expectations by attracting a strong outpouring of delegate support. Obama's love was a virtual flood. His army of floor volunteers outnumbered Clinton's the way the Persians outnumbered the 300, the way Woodstock outnumbers a local poetry slam. Our intrepid camera-toting team was given an exclusive heads-up about Obama's entry point on the floor, was perfectly positioned and alone in greeting him, then was immediately stempeded by Obama-worshipping delegates."

CDP CLINTON: Tepid At Best

The netroots may like Hillary Clinton more than Joe Lieberman, but they're not in love with her either. Reactions to Clinton's performance include:

• Calitics' Todd Beeton: "while there was some excitement on the floor in anticipation of Hillary's speech, mostly among young women, there was very little as she was actually speaking. ... You sort of get the sense that she's written off a certain segment of the Democratic primary electorate and she made no effort to win them over today."
• Dday at Calitics: "Hillary's speech was going fine, IMO, until she got to Iraq. Then she lost the crowd ... I can't tell you how many delegates I saw yelling "Impeach Bush! Impeach Cheney!" and then holding up their Hillary signs. I don't think her support is as soft as the netroots think."
• Calitics' jra: "I hate to say this, but seeing Hillary up on the big screen at the CDP convention is totally giving me flashbacks to the now infamous 1984 parody ad. ... I say this not to be mean, but just to marvel at the impact of this new media environment. ... So far I am not wowed by Hillary's speech, and I would say the reaction of the crowd is tepid at best."
• Blogswarm at Calitics: "Senator Hillary devoted barely any time to Iraq in her CDP Convention speech. She didn't admit she made a mistake, even though she had the perfect opportunity. Really, I'm shocked by what she didn't say. ... When she finally mentioned Iraq, she lost the crowd. I really don't see how she can campaign in this environment without admitting her mistake."

CDP DODD: Not Obama

CaliticsLucas O'Connor describes the scene as Chris Dodd took the stage 4/28: "Way different than Clinton and Obama. No tour through the crowd, just straight from the wings to the mic. I don't think anyone even really listened to the intro that Torres just gave him. Everyone's still coming down from Obama...tough draw for Chris Dodd."

Dodd also sat down for a bloggers interview. California Majority Report's Matt Jones found him to be an "amazingly good listener" and "a genuinely compassionate man." Dday at Calitics was also there and shared Dodd's thoughts on how to break through the "Hillack Clintobama.." A summary of Dodd:

Dodd believes in an almost architectural way to build an organization, by making the underlying structure solid. Iowa and Nevada, he said, are all about organization; getting people to stay in caucuses for two hours and horse trade with their neighbors requires it. And in New Hampshire, he's a fellow New Englander. His crowds are "decent-sized". And people seem to have an "amnesia about the last election," where Kerry's organization in Iowa was solid enough to help him win that race.

CDP EDWARDS: Also Not Obama

CaliticsJohn Beeton liveblogged John Edwards 4/29 address, commenting: "As you might expect for a Sunday at 10am time slot, the crowds and energy that accompanied Obama to the stage are not present for Edwards, but it also allows him to work the delegate crowd as Barack was not able to. He just took the stage and he's being greeted by a standing ovation. This place loves this guy."

Also at Calitics, Lucas O'Connor says the tone of Edwards post speech presser "was completely different" than HRC's 4/28 and shares Edwards position on immigration: "spoke briefly of earned citizenship for illegal immigrants with a fine and english language requirement."

CDP OBAMA: Magic

California Majority Report's Dave Rand argues that "while Hillary won the key endorsements, and probably displayed a more disciplined campaign operation, from where I was sitting, it was Obama that generated the most enthusiasm." Obama generated by far the most enthusiasm from where the Blogometer sits as well:

• Caliticsatdleft: "Yesterday, something amazing happened. Barack Obama came to speak at the convention, and I was able to see him up close. ... And I saw the magic of Obama right there, as all of us were mesmerized and blown away.
• CaliticsLucas O'Connor: "Obama's taking the stage now, and the reception is way different than when Hillary hit the floor this morning. Hillary had her supporters in place for her entrance, but folks are in full sprint to get a picture of Senator Obama. This is what genuine enthusiasm looks and sounds like."
• unidentified young woman as reporters by Calitics' jra: "Oh my God! I shook his hand! I'm never washing this hand again!"

Some more establishment bloggers weren't as bowled over. CA Ass. Speaker Fabian Nunez Dep. COS Steven Maviglio writes at California Majority Report: "While the "Best Convention Speech" award goes to Senator Barack Obama, there was plenty of grumbling among the press corps about the Senator's failure to put himself in the shark tank with reporters while he was at the convention. As noted here, every other candidate was open and available for a grilling by the press. Not Obama. His handlers kept him at bay. The protectionism of Obama seems to being done for one reason: his handlers don't want him to slip up, be forced to talk detail, or take away what he says in his impressive stump speech."

CDP RICHARDSON: For A Passenger's Bill Of Rights, By The Way

Bill Richardson sat down for a group session with bloggers 4/28. Calitics' Hekebolos "transcript of sorts" includes this give and take:

• Blogger: 49% of Californians feel they're falling behind. How would you address that feeling?
• Richardson: I believe we have to have policies - I was on an airplane, and by the way, we need a passenger's bill of rights. But I'm sitting with this woman, and she said that she was in the middle class and felt like she was paying for both the poor and the rich. What I'd do is use the tax code to reward companies that create jobs. I'd raise the minimum wage. 'd focus on California's strengths.

DEM FIELD: Dems Are All A Like Except When They're Not

MyDD's Chris Bowers tracks recent polling and comments: "There simply no longer appears to be any regional blocks to speak of in the Democratic Party. Sure, there are slight differences, but we are only talking about 5-10% at most. Even among demographic groups in the party, with few exceptions Pew's recent poll showed the difference among those groups was under 10%. The entire list of "very few" exceptions includes: regular blog readers (pro-Edwards and Obama), conservative Democrats (pro-Clinton), African-Americans (anti-Edwards), Dems under thirty (pro-Obama), those who never attended college (pro-Clinton), those with incomes over $100,000 (pro-Obama), those with incomes under $30,000 (pro-Clinton), and seculars (pro-Obama, anti-Clinton)."

Also commenting on the field, MyDD's Jerome Armstrong reviews candidate netroots outreach including: "There's nothing happening in the way of outreach to Democratic-leaning blogs on Barack Obama's website that I can see. Nothing. It's a neat closed-walled website out of 2003 with fancier appliances. ... I know there are Obama fans here who feel the need to come in defense of their candidate. That's fine. I find his non-existent online outreach strategy very pre-2003, and you are free to defend it. Just don't mimic the latest about how Obama is the new Reagan, because the latter knew how to work with his base." Later Armstrong seems to retract based on evidence that Obama has embraced Twitter.

CLINTON: Weak In The Wrong States?

Moving on from his "Inflated Poll Theory" hobby horse, MyDD's Chris Bowers identifies some new Hillary Clinton stories evident in recent polling:

• Clinton has a northeast base: There are nine states were multiple polls have shown Clinton ahead by an average of more than double digit margins since the start of February ... Six of these states are in the northeast, and one of them, Florida, has a large northeast emigre population. Clearly, Clinton's strength is to be found in the northeast.
• Home states: There are four states with multiple polls since the beginning of February where Clinton is trailing: Illinois (to Obama), Iowa (to Edwards), New Mexico (to Richardson) and North Carolina (to Edwards). All but one, Iowa, is a homestate for one of Clinton's main competitors.
• Early States: The other area where Clinton is somewhat weaker is generally found in early states. In addition to the four states where she trails, multiple polls have shown a single-digit race in five states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, New Hampshire, and South Carolina.

Back in one of those early states, Reno and Its DiscontentsMyrna Minx reports from HRC's 4/29 town hall in Reno, NV: "If I had to choose one word to describe Clinton's town hall in Reno this morning, I would choose "impressive"-surprisingly so. ... The town hall is clearly her best venue-she can show off her confident presence, her obvious intelligence, the with and breadth of her political experience, her eloquence, and her attractiveness. Yes, that's right, Hillary looked absolutely fabulous in a green suit that just happened to match Hug High School's colors."

Down in Texas, The Burnt Orange Report's Todd Hill notes that Clinton secured 54% of the vote in a Tarrant County Dem beans and cornbread straw poll fundraiser 4/26. Hill comments: "That's kind of surprising to me only because the most visible grassroots organization in the county is Barack Obama's, but none the less, impressive for Clinton."

DODD: A Better Half

Jackie Dodd won some fans with her comments prior to 4/27's JJ Dinner in Columbia, SC. SC '08 writes: "Chris Dodd only spoke briefly, but upon his departure his wife Jackie addressed the crowd more at length. Her comments really put the race in perspective from her family's point of view, and explained why she thought her husband would make a great president. No canned one-liners, no written remarks and no podium."

EDWARDS: Consensus Departer

MyDD's Matt Stoller congratulates himself for being the first blogger "to note the importance of Edwards not raising his hand when asked whether there is a Global War on Terror" and adds: "For a major candidate, this is a very significant departure from the bipartisan consensus, and I only wish that Edwards had noted it with more than a raised hand. Indeed it's going to be tough for him to escape his answer, so he should embrace it."

MyDD's Nuevo Liberal responds by citing some past Edwards comments and commenting: "While the current version of Edwards ("Edwards 3.x") is apparently exciting to many in the blogosphere, it turns out that the former avatar of Edwards ("Edwards 2.x") was, as with the war, at the forefront of championing the GOP/neocon frame, "GWOT"."

Also at MyDD, Peter from WI makes the case that Edwards is the only candidate in the field who can carry on Howard Dean's 50-State Strategy in '08: "Clearly, John Edwards has thrown down the gauntlet to other candidates and declared that he will campaign for the hearts, minds, and votes of citizens in places outside the friendly confines of the 'blue' states and 'swing' states."

RICHARDSON: Rocket Man

Instapundit links to news of the first successful launch at a commercial spaceport in NM and comments: "Bill Richardson deserves a spot of credit, too, as he's been good about pushing the New Mexico spaceport."

GOP FIELD: Thompson's For The Taking?

GOP Bloggers is in the middle of their April straw poll. With 5461 ballots cast Fred Thompson is blowing away the field with 55% of the vote.

Back in IA, Krusty Konservative has ranked the GOP IA staffs from worst to first: 1. John McCain; 2. Mitt Romney; 3. Tommy Thompson; 4. Holding for Fred Thompson (I'm not joking. If/when Fred Thompson jumps in the race I'm confident that he will be able to put together a solid staff.); 5a. Tom Tancredo; 5b. Rudy Giuliani; 5c. Sam Brownback; 8. Mike Huckabee.

KK also comments on Giuliani's latest internal polling: "I can already tell you what Rudy's phone surveys will tell him. The majority of past caucus goers are pro life, a third are planning to attend the Straw Poll, and most haven't made up their mind on which they are going to support. If Giuliani wants to take Iowa seriously he should stop making stupid phone calls and put together a top notch staff in the state. Until he does that, Rudy has no chance in Iowa."

MCCAIN: Non-Cheerleaders Not Welcome?

Power Line's John Hinderaker reports on a 4/27 John McCain blogger conference call: "McCain takes generally solid positions on domestic issues, but for the most part, he doesn't seem to want to distinguish himself on those issues. ... I infer from this that McCain will rest his case for the Presidency on foreign policy. On domestic issues, it seems that he will take a consistently conservative line (with the notable exception of campaign finance and maybe one or two other issues), but he won't make a serious effort to distinguish himself from the other candidates on those points."

At Townhall, Dean Barnett makes the case against his exclusion from the call: "One of McCain's liabilities the past few years has been his tendency to cozy up exclusively to "friendlies" in the media. I think this habit caused his "fighting back" muscles to atrophy, and is one of the main reasons why his campaign hasn't excelled at bailing since it began taking on water. ... In other words, the McCain campaign would do well to reach out to people who haven't pre-qualified themselves as cheerleaders."

At The Corner, Andy McCarthy notes McCain's 4/29 disavowal of torture on Fox News and then reminds readers that in '05 McCain admitted "extreme measures," could be justified in a ticking bomb scenario but that no written exception should be adopted. McCarthy concludes: "That is a perfectly respectable position. ... But, it is just plain bluster to argue, as McCain continues to insist, that coercion never works and he doesn't care what anyone else says. As his answer on the ticking-bomb demonstrates, even he doesn't believe that."

THOMPSON: Loves Football

A YouTube of a Fred Thompson rally hosted by Rep. Zach Wamp (R-TN) is making conservativeblog rounds . Instapundit shares reader email: "It was filmed and edited by my fifteen year old Grandson, Matthew Matheson. I was late in picking him up so he missed the first part of the rally. He makes and designs web sites and has all the latest technology and software to work with. He is young, but very good. Who knows? He might start making political commercials for the candidates."

And Thompson's Paul Harvey commentary on the "decidedly political turn" player personnel decision have taken in the NFL is up at NRO.

BLOGGERS VS. BELTWAY: No Danke Schoen

Dem pollster Doug Schoen is having a rough day in the blogosphere thanks to some unstudied blog outreach and a recent health care op-ed. DailyKos' founder Markos Moulitsas posts the entire text of an email promoting Schoen's new book "The Power of the Vote" and comments: "These people are obviously so freakin' stupid that they've never heard of setting up a diary on Daily Kos. But beyond that, these morons think that blogs sit around pining for "guest blogs" by tired Liebercrats like Doug Schoen. They think people outside of their DC cocktail party circuit give a shit about then. It's so pathetic it's hilarious."

MyDD's Chris Bowers piles on: "I received exactly the same email Markos posted on Dailykos, word for word ... It is so utterly out of touch with the world of the blogosphere that it is hard to fathom. ... I emailed the guy back, linking to a recent article I wrote ripping Doug Schoen ... I received an email back explaining that Schoen was not exactly blog savvy or something, and needed help in that regard. Yeah, no kidding."

Ezra Klein hits Schoen for an RCP post titled A Healthcare Agenda for America: "It's almost a parody of the pernicious Democratic consultant. There's no core convictions, no policy preferences, no belief in Democratic ideas, no thoughts about how to lead public opinion, a fetish for bipartisanship, a willingness to ignore the ongoing sins of the Republicans and abandon popular progressive legislation, and an attempt to convince the Democratic Party that it's actual position is weaker than it is and compromise must start now. ... This is very genuinely one of the worst opinion pieces I've ever encountered."

MyDD's Matt Stoller helps Ezra out: "Schoen is a paid contributor to Fox News, and didn't disclose it in his interview when he was on the radio bashing Moveon during the Fox News/Nevada Democratic Party scuffle. Oh, and both the way, he's done a lot of work for pharma, and tends not to disclose it in editorial pieces unless pushed very hard. Schoen was a very important pollster in the 1990s, business partners with Hillary Clinton's chief strategist Mark Penn until fairly recently. People like him are the reason the party is so messed up."

And speaking of Penn, Matthew Yglesias comments on WaPo's A1 profile: "To make a long story short, though, if you think the problem with the Democratic Party is that it's insufficiently inclined to support wars, you'll like Mark Penn. If you think the Party is insufficiently friendly to the interests of major corporations and wealthy individuals, you'll like Mark Penn."

THOUGHT OF THE DAY: It's The Message, Stupid

Atrios links to Bill Moyers segments with TPM's Josh Marshall and Comedy Central's Jon Stewart and comments:

Left of center blogs filled various connected vacuums which were created by a triangulating-against-itself-Democratic party, a media with a "no liberals on TV or radio" rule, and the post-9/11 media prostration to the Bush administration and its complete abdication of its responsibility with respect to the Iraq war, all of which followed its campaign 2000 prostration to the Bush candidacy. Overall what blogs have been able to do is create an unfolding political narrative which has been largely absent elsewhere. Sometimes it's about emphasizing different things, sometimes it's about combating DC conventional wisdom, sometimes it's about highlighting things which are being ignored. But taken all together it's about telling the story of politics in a different way.

While there are other elements - fundraising, various types of activism, etc... - day to day the power of the blogosphere is that it offers up a competing version of political reality, in opposition to the Russert/Matthews/Dowd version and in opposition to the Limbaugh/Hannity/Fox News/Heritage Foundation version.

LEST WE FORGET: Jobs Americans Won't Do

The Corner's Mark Steyn critiques ex-Dep. Sec. State Randall Tobias "no sex involved ... is now using another firm that uses 'Central Americans'" response to the burgeoning DC Madam story: "When your government career self-detonates, it's best to stick to the old line about resigning in order to spend more time with your family rather than resigning in order to spend more time with a brand new escort service."

Posted by Conn Carroll at April 30, 2007 12:38 PM