April 27, 2007

4/27: An Odd Couple

If you had Hillary Clinton and Mike Gravel in your office's debate pool on "who will improve their netroots standing the best" well, congrats ... we sure didn't. Simply by showing up sans horns and pitch fork, HRC impressed bloggers with her toughness and smarts. Meanwhile Gravel stole the show from traditional netroots favs Barack Obama, John Edwards, and Bill Richardson by serving up the most vocal and progressive foreign policy vision. While Gravel's new online fans uniformly admit he has no chance, could Orangeburg be the beginning of a thaw in netroots coolness to HRC?

SC DEBATE: Gravel, Clinton Up - Edwards, Richardson Down

Daily Kos hosted a "Who won the debate, if anyone?" straw poll:

Biden      3 %
Clinton   12 %
Dodd       1 %
Edwards   18 %
Gravel    10 %
Kucinich   4 %
Obama     17 %
Richardson 5 %

Laura at Blue Hampshire compares regular dKos straw polls to 4/46 debate winner straw poll to tease out who really benefitted from the Orangburg debate: "if we compare tonight's debate poll with the regular straw polls, Hillary Clinton and Mike Gravel emerge as the major winners, going up by 9 and 10 points, respectively. ... Edwards, the consistent winner in the regular Daily Kos straw polls, was a loser in this debate, garnering only 19% as opposed to his recent 42%, and Richardson also slid substantially. Aside from Richardson, all of the lower-tier candidates improved on their straw poll performances - Gravel most notably but Biden, Dodd, and Kucinich as well."

The highlight of the night for many was the exchange between Gravel and Obama on Iran. Crooks and LiarsLogan Murphy posts video of the moment and comments: "Senator Barack Obama was asked a question about global warming and when his answer strayed into the area of terrorism, Dennis Kucinich took the opportunity to challenge Obama on a past statement that nothing was off the table when it came to Iran. Not one to pull any punches, Mike Gravel wasted no time in making his views on Iran crystal clear." A highly rated comment on Daily Kos reads: "Gravel and Kucinich are helping to move the goalposts. Kucinich and Gravel speak truth to power..."

TAPPED's Sam Rosenfeld argued Gravel and Kucinich served a different purpose: "I think it was obvious, by the way all the other candidates repeatedly jumped at the chance to change whatever the subject was at hand and readdress remarks about terrorism and the use of force made by Dennis Kucinich and Mike Gravel, that they considered those two candidates to be invaluable tools for "see, we're not like that" differentiation. Everyone could make the easy points about being against this war, not all wars always, reiterating the seriousness of the threat of transnational terrorism and the legitimacy of force in the face of real threats, etc."

CLINTON DEBATE: Not The Devil After All

• Daily Kos' OneCharmingBastard: "Man, she's tough as f***ing nails and smart as a whip - as much as it pains me to say it, she'd be one amazing President.
• Daily Kos' WhyWhat: "Hillary is not the Devil some of Kossacks make her out to be."
• AMERICAblog's John Aravosis: "Okay. Still doing a public speech rather than speaking to the public."

DODD DEBATE: Exceeding Expectations

• Daily Kos' teacherken: "The one who in my mind has done the best job of exceeding expectations is Dodd, although I don't think it does him any good."
• AMERICAblog's John Aravosis: "Damn impressive. The only one who hits me as presidential this evening. Speaks well. Knows his stuff. Sincere."
• Daily Kos' klnb: "I am more and more impressed with Senator Dodd. He's smart - he's well-spoken - and he's ... uh... smart."

EDWARDS DEBATE: If He Did So Well, Then Why The Bad Debate Polling?

• Daily Kos' LNK: "A+ to Edwards for mentioning next generation who are being wooed by the terrorists....That we should use more tools than bombs....Bring next generation who are on the fence, bring them over to our side."
• The Blue State: "John Edwards wins first debate. John Edwards - Most straight-forward in his answers. Clearly came off the best. He had a lot riding on this debate, and came up big."
• Daily Kos' Georgia10: "I also LOVED Edwards' line about asking the American people to be patriotic about something other than war. Brilliant."
• MyDD's Benstrader: "I have no problem with Edwards's pause and saying he couldn't think of one person, but then his response was "My Lord" and with a shrug. I think it was a bad question, but it was a softball, and he could have knocked it out of the park and said his wife for the courage and conviction she has shown in absolutely tragic times."
• MyDD's David Mizner: "Edwards gave the best answers--"we need weapons other than bombs"--but his delivery could have been sharper, more energetic. He needs to bring some of his stump energy into the debates. And I'm pretty sure he didn't raise his hand when asked if he believed there's a global war on terror--that shocked and pleased me."

GRAVEL DEBATE: Give 'Em Zell!

• MyDD's Winston Smith: "Winner is Gravel. Winning for him is relative, of course, since he is struggling to break into the third tier. He might have been able to do so tonight. We'll see if he breaks out of the 0% margin of error."
• Daily Kos' Frandor55: "Gravel To Be Guest On Daily Show? ... Stewart has to get this guy. He is entertaining.
• MyDD's Fitzy: "But, while I agreed with a lot of what he said, he came across as a progressive Zell Miller. ... But for calling himself an "elder statesman," he came across more like the old lady that writes long, rambling letters to the editor every day.
• The Plank's Michael Crowley: "Mike Gravel, doing his earnest best to destroy the Democratic party's image. Can't someone intervene to get him out of future debates?"

OBAMA DEBATE: Better At Set Pieces

• MyDD's littafi: "I thought Obama and Richardson were trying to sound hawkish."
• MyDD's adamterando: "As far as Obama. I really didn't like his response about Iran. To me it felt like September 2002 all over again when he said we know that Iran is trying to build a nuclear weapon. Do we really know that or are we being fed a line again because a bunch of hawks want to go to war?"
• Lane Hudson at The Huffington Post: "Most people probably wondered why he was engaging the crazy guy from Alaska. Obama also maintained the status quo. ... He was not able to connect real policy proposals with his gifted transformational speaking style.
• Daily Kos' teacherken: "Obama not as a effective as it is hearing him in person, or when he gives a set speech."
• AMERICAblog's John Aravosis: "Looks young, too young. Doesn't sound very comfortable."
• Blue Hampshire's Laura: "Obama didn't need this as badly, but I at least was left with the sense that he should have been better prepared, not for the subject matter but for the form. However, he distinguished himself on a few answers, as when he called out Brian Williams' use of an out-of-context quote about Palestinians - he responded firmly and with great control."

RICHARDSON DEBATE: Swing And A Miss

• MyDD's nevadadem: "Richardson clearly lost, any idea of him getting traction in the blogosphere war really shot down I thought."
• TAPPED's Scott Lemieux: "I like Bill Richardson, and hope that he becomes a viable candidate in the primary. But his choice of "Whizzer White" as his ideal Supreme Court Justice in tonight's debate is...odd. Myself, I would prefer a justice who was on the right side of (just for starters) Roe, Miranda, and Bowers."
• MyDD's Fitzy: "Bill Richardson disappointed me tonight. I still like him a lot, and he's got the best resume in America. But with his experience and his knowledge, I honestly expected him to run circles around everyone else with policy questions."

DEM FIELD: The Young, Rich, And Educated Love Obama

Pollster.com's Mark Blumenthal emailed Pew's analysts for crosstabs that could help shed light on Chris Bowers' Clinton Inflated Poll Theory and writes and the chart he received back:

Two findings stand out: Among Democrats, Barack Obama gets a higher percent of the vote (27%) among those paying a lot of attention or paying some attention (28%) than among those paying little or no attention (19%). ... So what do these results say about Chris Bowers' theory that national polls are overstating Hillary Clinton's lead? The evidence here is mixed, at best. Obama certainly does better among more attentive voters, although that finding is not particularly surprising given his rapidly growing name recognition in recent months. However, Clinton also does better among the most attentive Democrats. Thus, her margin over Obama among those who pay "a lot" of attention (11 points in the combined March/April data) is actually a few statistically insignificant points higher than her margin among all Democrats (9 points in March, 10 points in April).

Bowers was also all over the Pew poll at MyDD: "First, it is useful to note that Clinton's advantage over Obama among liberal and moderates is negligible, but her edge among conservatives is enormous. Second, Obama holds a gaping lead among seculars--and even Edwards is tied with Clinton among seculars--but Clinton holds the edge among all other religious demographics. Many of the other patterns we have seen are also replicated here: younger voters, wealthier voters, highly educated voters, and male voters all skew toward Obama much more heavily than do other demographics. There clearly seems to be a cultural and class based divide between Clinton and Obama supporters, at least right now."

DODD: Leading the Way

Chris Dodd Blog Outreach Coordinator Tim Tagaris promoted Dodd's campaign war room at MyDD where anybody could ask Dodd questions in real time directly from the SCSU debate. TechPresident's Joshua Levy comments: "Tim - you guys are leading the way on this. I think the other candidates will have to follow suit."

EDWARDS: We Think Armando Wants Him To Endorse Reid-Feingold Or Something

John Edwards followed up his debate performance with a diary at Daily Kos on "The Question I Wasn't Asked." Edwards goes on tell Kossacks "What should we be doing - right now - to end the war in Iraq?" From Edwards:

Both houses of Congress have now passed funding bills that reflect the will of the American people that we must end the war in Iraq. ... With so much at stake, Congress must stand firm. ... If Bush vetoes the funding for our troops, Congress must send the same bill back to the president -- and they should do this again and again--as many times as it takes for Bush to understand that the American people are right and the war must be brought to an end.

Talk Left's Big Tent Democrat responds: "Mr. Edwards seems to believe this bill ends the Debacle. It simply does not. The March 31, 2008 date is advisory, not mandatory. I repeat, it does not end the Debacle. ... The goals of Reid-Feingold, announcing a date certain for not funding the Debacle, is the way to end the war. Edwards does not mention Reid-Feingold in his statement. I must say that what this appears to be is a political play from Edwards to put his rivals on the spot. It may be smart Presidential politics but I find it wrong. I think less of Edwards today.

OBAMA: The Meta Campaigner

While Barack Obama's debate performance may not have wowed, his pre-debate pronouncement on the Iraq supplemental definitely did. TPM's Greg Sargent quotes Obama: "We are one signature away from ending the Iraq War." Turneresq at Daily Kos responds: "Barack Obama comes with a great frame (which I hope he repeats tonight) with respect to putting the pressure (and responsibility) on Bush, should he decide to veto this bill. ... Use that quote again and again Sen. Obama. The frame is absolutely perfect for you to use. This should be the first sentence out of your mouth tonight at the debate. Believe me, the mileage you will get out of it will be great."

Meanwhile, TAPPED's Ezra Klein has thoughts on David Brooks recent Obama item: "Brooks's concrete insight here is a good one: As my colleague Garance has noted, Obama has a tendency to lapse into "meta" campaigning, wherein he spends his time on the podium talking about the experience of campaigning and the practice of politics rather than whatever his ostensible subject is. This can, at times, lead to trenchant insights, and at others, obscure his actual thoughts on the topic at hand. It's worth keeping an eye on."

BROWNBACK: All The Cool Kids Are Doing It

The Corner's John DerbyshirenotedSam Brownback recent "reversal reversal on that atrocious Senate immigration bill" and comments: "Out on the stump, these guys-who thought about immigration for about ten minutes total in the previous 60 years of their lives-are getting an earful from conservative voters. I can't believe how far the issue has come in just a couple of years. Even birthright citizenship is in play."

GINGRICH: Newt, Unplugged

Townhall's Mary Katharine Ham posts video of a Newt Gingrich Heritage Foundation speech in Philadelphia, PA, and comments: "Newt gets raw on the Republican Majority, all the '08 candidates, and the federal government." From the video: "The GOP lost in '06 because we earned it. ... To pretend that the current AG should stay in office beyond noon tomorrow is to betray the nation."

GIULIANI: Is Rudy The New Mitt?

Rudy Giuliani is taking heat from more libertarian minded conservatives for his stated opposition to NH's recently passed civil union law. NY Sun's Ryan Sager calls it "a shocking departure from his previously stated position" and Race 4 '08s DaveG writes: "Team Rudy should never begin to think that the answer to liberal views on abortion is a hardline agenda on gay issues. Such a move will only turn off gay-friendly libertarian-conservatives and moderates while doing little to move pro-life social conservatives."

Andrew Sullivan adds: "That's from the New York Sun. So he was in favor of ending the discrimination by civil unions before - and he isn't now. Romney isn't the only flip-flopper, is he?"

Also tracking Giuliani evolution, The Brody File excerpts Life News coverage of Giuliani on partial birth abortion including: "Giuliani insisted that his recent support for the partial-birth abortion ban and the high court's ruling upholding it was consistent with his past opposition to the ban. ... He said he shifted his position on the ban when lawmakers adopted "more scientific language" in the life of the mother provision in the bill in 2003." Brody adds: "You can read more here but let's just cut to the chase. Giuliani has "evolved" on partial birth abortion just like other candidates on other issues."

MCCAIN: McCain-Lieberman Much More Likely Than Kerry-McCain Ever Was

The Corner's Larry Kudlow promotes an upcoming interview with Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-CT) with this nugget: "One question I asked Mr. Lieberman was whether he's ready to switch parties yet? Whether that might be an effective action to help win the war? He gave a very interesting response to that question and he left the door open to supporting Sen. John "Backbone" McCain for President."

Also, RCP Blog's Tom Bevan posts a screen capture of a McCain "Surrender Is Not An Option" banner ad at Daily Kos and writes: "I'm afraid John McCain won't be getting any signatures for his petition from this advertisement."

ROMNEY: Looking To Represent A New Constituency

Mitt Romney received praise for his attacks on Dem '08ers refusal to debate on Fox News. RCP Blog's Tom Bevan writes: "Why other Republican candidates didn't jump on this angle right away is beyond me, because in addition to being obvious and true, it plays well with the base on a number of levels." Race 4 '08s Jason adds: "Yes the Demo's are wimps, we saw it last night. Actually last night seemed like a game of softball."

At The Brody File, readers defend Romney after Brody posted past quotes from Mitt on his support of Hate Crime legislation:

• I am not completely happy w/Romney, but I think he's the most electable of the current crop of nominatable republicans. I am somewhat concerned about his past statements too, but am more and more convinced of his sincerity.
• If you want to know what a true believer in Christ believes, you ask the believer, not their detractors. In this case, many have misinterpreted or miscast Governor Romney's positions on Gay/Lesbian Rights. He is an advocate for all Americans, seeking to eliminate discrimination of any kind.
• We shouldn't concern ourselves so much with what someone said in the past as what his current comments and pledges to us are. Keep in mind when you delve into Mitt Romney's political past that he had to represent a different constituency then.

IRAQ: Victory Defined

Sen. John Kerry (D-MA) took to Daily Kos 4/26 to defend Maj. Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) from attacks over his recent "this war is lost" comments. Kerry writes: "They're at it again. When I came here to Daily Kos and supported Speaker Pelosi when she was attacked by the right-in, I said, "They thrive on destroying our leaders - we can't let them." I take no pride in my prognostication. Now they're going after my friend and Majority Leader Harry Reid. And once again, it's up to us to defend him."

At RedState, California Yankee continues the right's attack on Reid by noting recent Harris Poll data showing VP Cheney's 25% approval rating is higher than Reid's 22%. CY comments: "The WSJ noted that this was the first time since this polling series began that all of the political figures and institutions included in the survey received negative performance ratings. Speaker Pelosi saw her approval rating fall to 30 percent in April from 38% in February, shortly after she was sworn in."

Also in Iraq blogging, Crooks & Liars posts Americans United for Change's new ad that will run "this weekend in DC in response to Bush's threatened veto."

And from Iraq, RedState's Jeff Emanuel posts a photo of a placard in Rear Admiral Fox's office on the desired "End State" for Iraq. The sign reads:

Iraq at peace with its neighbors with a representative government that respects the human rights of all Iraqis and a security force sufficient to maintain domestic order and to deny Iraq as a safe haven for terrorists.

Emanuel comments: "So this is what "victory" in Iraq looks like. ... So, how realistic is it? That's a good question - the only consensus appears to be the fact that what is needed most, beyond what is being done, is more time. Unfortunately, thanks to the political cycle, this is precisely what we do not have.

THOUGHT OF THE DAY: Couldn't Dean Have Coordinated Something Here?

Instapundit whacks the Dem Field over an APitem reporting: "A flock of small jets took flight from Washington Thursday, each carrying a Democratic presidential candidate to South Carolina for the first debate of the political season. ... No one jet pooled, no one took commercial flights to save money, fuel or emissions." Instapundit comments: "Couldn't they have "jet pooled" to cut down on carbon emissions? Or, you know, flown commercial with the hoi polloi? "

LEST WE FORGET: He Says Crappy Music And Shallow Materialism Like It's A Bad Thing

After John Derbyshire started a disco fever debate with his thoughts on Saturday Night Fever, Jonah Goldberg shares this reader thought on the era:

Your reader who "grew up with an entire neighborhood of Tony Maneros" is right on the money. There was a huge cultural backlash, at least in NYC, to SNF and the "disco culture" in general. One of the biggest reasons, besides the crappy music and the shallow materialism of the designer jeans crowd, was that the rush to disco practically wiped out live music in small venues. Once upon a time every bar and grill had a decent to excellent live band in on Friday and Saturday nights. This disappeared overnight during the disco craze. Why pay a band when you can get a guy with a sound system an a bunch of disco records for 25% of the price?

Posted by Conn Carroll at April 27, 2007 12:41 PM