April 20, 2007

4/20: Playing Hard To Get

Joe Trippi's decision to join the John Edwards campaign further illustrates the contrasting approaches Barack Obama and Edwards have taken towards online activism. Edwards has actively courted the netroots, forcefully retracting his Iraq vote, emphasizing issues that matter to them (most notably, economic inequality/poverty), hiring well-credentialed bloggers (Amanda Marcotte), and being the first to respond to their campaigns (led on NV and CBC Fox debate cancellations). Obama, on the other hand, has taken a more hands-off approach, eschewing traditional netroots forums and even telling New York Magazine "increasingly, when I read Daily Kos, it doesn't surprise me." While hard-core online activists have rewarded Edwards in Daily Kos and MyDD straw polls, Obama leads the field among MoveOn.org members and outpaces Edwards in nat'l polling. There's no doubt the netroots would support either candidate in the general, but how willing will nominee Obama be to listen to the netroots if he gets there despite them?

DEM FIELD: What Bloggers Want

MyDD's Chris Bowers dusts off the Paul Hackett litmus test for netroots support for Dem candidates and applies it to the current field. First, the test:

• 1. Does 'distance himself' from the party or its leaders, or is he proud to be a Democrat?
• 2. Does he talk like a bureaucrat or like a regular person?
• 3. Does he make it clear that he opposes Bush and the Republicans?
• 4. Does he back down when the corporate press/media or Republican pundits attack him, or does he stand by his words?
• 5. Does he respond to the nationwide reaction of the left blogosphere, or does he assign it to a junior staff member?

Bowers then applies it to the field:

• Obama, despite his record as a legislator, seems to have problems with numbers one and three. There is an underlying "politics of unity and purpose" theme to Obama's campaign, as well as a tendency to triangulate. Also, despite his huge netroots support, there does appear to be a problem with number five from time to time. However, that is more a problem in his words, than in his actual campaign structure or operation.
• Clinton seems to struggle at everything except for number four and number six, although in terms of number five her campaign has improved its netroots and blogosphere outreach. Whatever other complaints we make about Clinton, being lazy, not playing to win, and rolling over to the press are never (or at least rarely) among them. Her problems seem to be grouped into numbers one, two and three.
• Edwards does not appear to have any clear weak points in this test, which is why I imagine he is doing so well in Dailykos and MyDD polls. Of course, I'll probably take a lot of flack for not being harder on Edwards here.
• Richardson's problems seem to center on numbers two and three. He doesn't triangulate, but before Iraq he also never seemed to lead on any partisan fights against Republicans. Perhaps it is a visibility problem.
• Dodd definitely has problems with number two, and his "just give me a chance" campaign theme does not help him much with number six, either. Otherwise, he seems to do well.

DailyKos' founder Markos Moulitsas still believes Obama will eventually win the nomination, but still puts labels HRC the frontrunner and writes on Obama: "The strongest movement of the candidates, his campaign's impressive growth continues unabated. However, with increased success comes increased scrutiny as people are starting to take a look at his positions on issues like Iraq and health care more closely. He's been able to avoid specifics for now, and he can probably get away with it for a little bit longer, but soon he'll have to add some substance to his candidacy."

DODD: The Sense Maker

Chris Dodd's corporate carbon tax proposal is receiving high marks in netroots circles. MyDD's Matt Stoller writes: "It's hard not to like Chris Dodd, especially when he keeps making so much sense. ... A carbon tax hasn't been seriously considered since Clinton sold out Democratic members of Congress on the BTU tax in 1993. And now it's in the Presidential race." Daily Kos' mcjoan adds: "This brings the issue to the presidential debate. Good show.

EDWARDS: The Transformer

Des Moines Dem at IA's Bleeding Heartland reports most of the former "Deaniacs" he knows are still undecided between John Edwards and Barack Obama and doubts that news Dean advisor Joe Trippi has signed on with Edwards will make up anyone's mind. However, DMD does allow: "I think the move sends a positive signal about the change Edwards wants to bring to America."

MyDD's Vox Populi is more bullish on the hire: "This is a very significant development. It shows the Edwards campaign is dedicated to the Netroots, and is focused on running a truly transformational campaign. Please stop by the blog and welcome Joe to the campaign. He is a valued asset."

GOP FIELD: Sin City Loves Rudy?

Race 4 '08s HeavyM poured over FEC reports to break down how much each candidate raised for some of the early primary states. Mitt Romney led the pack in almost every state surveyed (IA, NH, SC, and FL) but not NV (where Rudy Giuliani outpaced him).

GIULIANI: The 11th Commandment Indeed

Townhall's Matt Lewis hits Rudy Giuliani for his '96 comments defending Pres. Clinton's veto of a partial-birth abortion ban and criticizing Pope John Paul II for his position on the issue. Lewis comments: "Among Catholic voters, I can only imagine that criticizing Pope John Paul II is about as popular as criticizing Ronald Reagan would be at a GOP convention. But aside from criticizing the late Pope, Giuliani seemed to say that the church should stay out of politics."

MCCAIN: Stick To Your Day Job

SC's Daily Chaser has videos up today from recent John McCain stops in SC. The DC loved his zingers at a VFW in Ladson, SC, but thought his Drudge linked "bomb, bomb, Iran" ditty (to the tune of the beach Boys "Barbara Ann") may have gone "a little too far."

The Right Angle's Ericka Andersen wasn't a fan either: "At this stage in the game, McCain should probably think a little more carefully about his attempts at humor with such touchy subjects. Keep your day job, Senator!"

McCain's slickly produced "pre-announcement video" is receiving wider blogger attention. Townhall's Mary Katharine Ham writes: "I'm not a huge McCain fan, but I am a fan of his pre-announcement video, which is very entertaining. He's miles ahead of what I've seen from the other candidates in the way of Internet video."

ROMNEY: No Other GOPer Has Bloggers Raising This Kind Of Dough

My Man Mitt is "WOW"ed by the $43K his site has raised so far for Mitt Romney in '07 and challenges his readers to help push him over the $50K mark.

THOMPSON: A Convincing White Knight

AmSpec Blog's Philip Klein catches a Bloombergstory on Fred Thompson becoming more committed to the pro-life cause after seeing the sonograms of his babies and likes what he hears: "Say what you want about Thompson and abortion, but to the average voter this will likely be a lot more convincing than Romney's contention that he had a change of heart after hearing a Harvard researcher use the word "destroyed" with regard to embryos." RedState's Mark Kilmer argues the Thompson has plenty of time to wait before riding in as the "White Knight" to save the GOP's WH '08 chances.

PROSECUTOR PURGE: Let Us Know When A GOP Sen. Utters The "I" Word

Talking Points Memo's Josh Marshall argues the "key" from 4/19's AG Alberto Gonzales testimony was Sen. Tom Coburn's (R-OK) call for Gonzales resignation and the strong hints from Sens. Arlen Specter (R-PA) and Lindsey Graham (R-SC) that they agreed. Marshall adds: "He's given people too many causes of termination to choose from. You can want him to go for subverting the federal justice system. Or if that's too much for you to handle you can say he should go for running Main Justice like some ungainly combination of a Young Republicans summer camp and Michael Brown's FEMA. And if even that creates too much collateral damage for you to deal with you can just say he should go for lying about everything that happened."

That said, Marshall urged readers "not get distracted by Alberto Gonzales. He's just a cog." Marshall continues: "In almost every case, what we're talking about here is Gonzales's willingness to take orders from the White House -- most importantly from Karl Rove and President Bush ... Mr. Gonzales is a secondary issue. The real players are in the White House." Others calling for a wider focus to the scandal include:

• Daily Kos' mcjoan: "Of course Gonzales is both a bumbling fool and a liar. ... It's almost a shame that his downfall was this relatively mundane political scandal (though certainly more egregious malfeasance by the administration is likely to be uncovered as the investigation unfolds) and not a result of his crimes against the Constitution, the Geneva Conventions, the Magna Carta, the basic rule of law. But I guess we take what we can get."
• TRex at firedoglake: "Yes, Abu is just the latest in a long line of egregious incompetents promoted well beyond their abilities and experience so that the Bush junta can extend its imperial reach to all levels of American society and forward the Republicans' plan to turn our nation into the world's single largest third-world banana republic."
• The Left Coaster's Steve Soto: "As I said at the outset of this federal attorney sacking debacle and again later, if the GOP really wants to make this issue all about voting fraud, then the Democrats should oblige them by turning the sunlight of many congressional oversight hearings upon the GOP's voting fraud and vote disenfranchisement activities these last six years. Democrats should turn the issue against the GOP by highlighting all these activities and push for a 2008 Voting Rights Act that reverses or significantly amends the HAVA and makes election integrity and vote disenfranchisement a major issue in the 2008 election."

Firedoglake's Christy Hardin Smith liveblogged the hearing in eight parts (I, II, III, IV, V, VI, VII, and VIII), while TPM's Marshall concentrated much of his blogging on US Atty Carol Lamlines ofquestioning .

PROSECUTOR PURGE II: But Can He Spell 'Potato'

Gonzalez had very few defenders among conservative bloggers, most of whom hope Pres. Bush will go against type and move for a new AG:

• The Corner's Byron York: "It has been a disastrous morning for Attorney General Alberto Gonzales ... The major problem with his testimony is that Gonzales maintains, in essence, that he doesn't know why he fired at least some of the eight dismissed U.S. attorneys. ... Throughout the morning, Gonzales insisted that he is the man in charge of the Justice Department, and accepted responsibility for the firings, but his testimony suggests he had little idea what was going on.
• Captain's Quarters: "One can write off Senators like Specter and Graham, but Tom Coburn is part of the conservative backbone in the Senate. That is a clear message to the White House to start placing ads in the paper for the upcoming opening in senior management."
• RedState's Erick Erickson: "This guy [John Bolton] should replace Alberto Gonzales as AG.
• AmSpec Blog's Quin Hillyer: "I've been watching Attorney General Gonzales testify off and on all day. I am beginning to feel supremely sorry for him. ... He comes across like Dan Quayle in that first press conference after Bush named him as his running mate. I.e, just not up to the job."

Only Power Line's Paul Mirengoff would offer even a limited defense: "As I read it, Gonzales largely delegated the decision making process, but accepts responsibility for the outcomes. I see no inconsistency here, though again I would prefer a more hands-on Attorney General. ... I've seen no account in which the Senators have made much headway in terms of showing that particular decisions were poor or corrupt."

IRAQ: Winning Isn't Everything

Maj. Leader Harry Reid's (D-NV) statement that "this war is lost" drew heavy conservative blogger criticism. Reactions include:

• The Corner's Michael Rubin: "A Corner reader writes, "I called his office and asked them for a response that this has now been picked up and broadcast by Iran. Her response... 'I'm indifferent.'"
• Gateway Pundit: "Senate Leader Harry Reid was the latest democrat to echo Al Qaeda on the troop surge."
• Austin Bay (after Reid's later clarification): "It would be refreshing if Reid even had the courage of his defeatist convictions."
• a Michelle Malkin reader: "I am currently serving in my 25th year, did one tour in Iraq, and would willingly go back. I'm at a loss for words. I just wish that he was also."
• RedState's Dan McLaughlin: "Well, the insurgents pressed a button yesterday and the desired response was produced by the Democrats' leader in the Senate."

Reid had plenty of defenders in the netroots, however. AMERICAblog's John Aravosis writes: "George Bush lost the war in Iraq a long time ago. And it does no one any favors - neither our troops, their families, nor any other American who cares about the future of our country - to pretend otherwise. ... This is their war, George Bush's war. And they lost this war through their utter mismanagement. ... Rather than admit that truth, and accept the blame and responsibility for their own mistakes, and bring our troops home, they'd rather continue lying to the American people and lying to our troops as they send tens of thousands more of them into an out of control civil war. ... Their ego is more important than the life of an American service member."

THOUGHT OF THE DAY: Some Of You Have Been Lying

MyDD's Chris Bowers crunches some Opinion Dynamics polling numbers and concludes Americans aren't being truthful with their telephone questioners. OD asked respondents: "Have you already or do you plan to contribute money to the candidate you are currently supporting?" Bowers reports

This question was asked in a survey of registered voters, a population that includes about 170,000,000 Americans nationwide. In the poll, 6% indicated that they had indeed already contributed money to the candidate they are supporting. If this number is accurate, that would mean that 10,200,000 people had already contributed money to the campaign they are supporting. However, as we learned this week, only about 350,000 Americans have actually contributed money to a presidential campaign. That is, um, a bit of a gap between claims of financial support and the reality of financial support in this campaign.

LEST WE FORGET: All The Fake News That's Fit To Retract

Extreme Mortman admires the Washington Post's dedication to fake facts after tracking this correction:

A Reliable Source item in the April 17 Style section incorrectly said that actor Nicolas Cage's son Kal-El was named for Superman's father. Kal-El is an alternate name for the comic-book superhero himself; Superman's father was Jor-El.

Mortman quips: "You can only imagine the stability of Washington Post readers who complained about that one. Of course, it's a little known fake fact that after coming to Earth, Kal-El was bar mitzvahed at Temple Beth El."

LEST WE FORGET II: Join Us For Drinks!!!

The Blogometer and most of the rest of The Hotline staff will be enjoying the improved weather and libations at Union Pub this afternoon around 4 PM. So stop on by if you're in the neighborhood.

Posted by Conn Carroll at April 20, 2007 12:47 PM