4/10: It's Gonna Get Worse For GOP Before It Gets Better

Discussion over why Dems seem to be dominating online continue to percolate with Patrick Ruffini arguing that "Web traffic (and donations) follows media coverage and the political environment" and the GOP is behind now due to a difficult year. '04 Bush eCampaign Dir. Michael Turk, however, argues that too many in the GOP are "control freaks" who insist on a "scripted and micromanaged" environment that stifles the community building seen in Daily Kos diaries and Atrios comment boards.

We highly respect Ruffini and Turk but argue their analysis of the issue may be too colored by their backgrounds as party and candidate staffers. Too often in their analysis they ask what should the RNC or candidates be doing to better engage activists online. We think this misses the impetus behind the power of the netroots. The DNC did not dream up Atrios, and Howard Dean did not create Daily Kos. While the netroots strongly identify themselves with Dems, they are a separate movement formed after years of frustration over Clinton's impeachment, Gore's loss in FL, and the Iraq war. The Blogometer argues that the GOP is not going to see a potent online force until it spends a similar journey through the wilderness

'08 FIELD: Googling For Undecideds

Blog PI's Bill Beutler looks at which candidates are buying Google AdWords for searches of their opponents' names. First, here's a list of whose ads appear when a candidate's name is queried:

• Clinton: Obama, Giuliani
• Romney: McCain, Giuliani
• Giuliani: McCain
• McCain: Romney, Giuliani

Beutler breaks these results down to show which campaigns are targeting each other. Here's who each campaign has bought Google AdWords for:

• Obama: Clinton
• Romney: McCain, Giuliani
• Giuliani: Hillary, McCain, Romney
• McCain: Giuliani

Beutler theorizes on the strategies behind the results: "Obama's camp believes he can win over Hillary Clinton people (supporters, or those interested enough to Google her name), Romney's team hopes to win over McCain people, McCain aims to pull support from both his GOP rivals, and the Giuliani squad is on a comparative buying spree, to the point of wooing some Hillary supporters. For some reason, nobody is bidding on either Edwards or Obama." Beutler does link to a possible explanation from Oregon Dem consultant Kari Chisholm: "The point of a Google ad isn't to find people who know they're looking for you - they should be able to find you just fine. It's to find people who are looking for something else; and your candidate is the answer to their question."

'08 FIELD II: Branding McCain And Giuliani As 'Generic' GOPers Key

Pollster.com Mark Blumenthal tracks discussion of the Diageo/Hotline poll showing an unnamed Dem beating an unnamed GOPer 47%-29%. Blumenthal notes that the eight questions before the generic ballot question focussed on AG Alberto Gonzales' problems, the job performance of Pres. Bush, and other issues that may have "limited enthusiasm about a Republican vote in 2008."

Blumenthal writes: "We know the Republican "brand" is at a low ebb, with a recent Pew Research Center report showing "leaned" Republican identification at a 17-year low of 35% compared to 50% for the Democrats. In this case, the order of questions may have also primed issues or controversies, further reducing the appeal of a Republican vote. ... Either way, McCain and Giuliani are not perceived as "generic" Republicans, at least not as of today.

GINGRICH: Pro-Nuclear Powered Squirrel

Draft Newt's Matt Keller will be live blogging 4/10's global warming debate between Newt Gingrich and Sen. John Kerry (D-MA). The Corner's Jonah Goldberg doesn't think Newt should be debating "losers" while NRO's Chris Horner isn't excited about what he thinks Newt might say: "My guess is that Newt and Kerry will agree that manmade global warming is destroying the biosphere. Where they will disagree is that Kerry will favor mandatory limits on [greenhouse gases] which will save the planet and make us all rich because we're saving so much energy, while Newt will support a long list of techno-geek solutions like nuclear-powered squirrels in wheels that will make us all rich and will also leave us stunned by the man's visionary brilliance."

GIULIANI: You've Got Some 'Splaining To Do!

Rudy Giuliani efforts to mollify conservative trepidations about his views on abortion might be doing more harm than good. Responding to a NRO editorial labeling Giuliani's position "neither logical, moral," Giuliani Policy Dir. Bill Simonresponds by citing Prof. Michael New data showing abortions declined while Giuliani was mayor. Simon writes: "His policies, based on the conservative principles of accountability and personal responsibility, not only led to the reduction of abortions in New York but also a 66 percent increase in the number of adoptions on his watch."

NRO's editors replied: "Like Bill Simon, we admire Professor New. Let's quote him some more on abortion trends during Giuliani's mayoral terms: 'I cannot attribute this decline to any actual policy Giuliani implemented.'" More from the editors: "That a Republican candidate for president promises not to push for federal funding of elective abortion is far from the bare minimum he could do. Will he promise a veto if the Democratic Congress sends such legislation his way?"

RCP Blog's Justin Miller tracks the debate and comments: "It's one thing to be so thoroughly rebuked and quite another to have it done on one of the most-widely read and respected publications on the right. It's clear that the Giuliani team will need to do more to secure the mayor's footing among pro-lifers (without appearing to cave to them) and to get more help from conservative supporters like Sen. David Vitter (R-LA)."

Also on the abortion front, RedState's Erick Erickson hits Giuliani for damage control over a '89 YouTube cited by Hotline On Call. A Giuliani sympathizer notes to On Call that the clip in question which includes, "I have also stated that I disagree with President Bush's veto last week of public funding for abortion," cuts off Rudy's next line: "That I disagree with President Bush's veto last week of public funding for abortions for rape or incest victims."

Erickson calls this Giuliani "backpedaling" "one of the most disingenuous pieces of spin thus far in the GOP primary." More Erickson: "He admits he supported a bill to provide tax payer funding for abortions -- it just so happened that the abortions would have arisen from rape and incest. But go back to point one. Rudy favored unfettered taxpayer funding for abortion in 1989 and he said the same thing in 2007."

AmSpec Blog's Philip Klein defends Rudy, concurring with On Call that the "abortions for rape or incest victims" line "makes a world of difference." Klein: "The Hyde Amendment bars federal financing of abortion, but still allows it in the cases of rape, incest, or the life of the mother. So, in 1989, he wasn't arguing against the Hyde Amendment, but a more restrictive version of the Hyde Amendment." Still Klein urges Rudy to bone up on the issue: "It may be unrealistic to expect Giuliani to know about every detail of every little item that's making the rounds on the Internet, but when it comes to the abortion issue, which going in he knew would be the most difficult for him to navigate, he should have his position down cold, and be ready to discuss every angle."

The Brody File contributes with email from readers:

• "It's time that evangelicals (like me) determine that we must have other reasons for voting for a man than just his stand on abortion, homosexuals, etc. National security is our prime concern now."
• "Look, as Christians it's a no brainer. We can only support a candidate who is pro life. Where is Newt?"
• "How can Rudy be Catholic and be pro choice? If ever there was an oxymoron, it is this. We are pro Romney!!"

MCCAIN: Iraq Is Not Enough

John McCain continues to receive high marks for his stalwart support of the war in Iraq, but there is still no evidence that is enough to move many conservative bloggers into his camp. At RedState, Pejman Yousefzadeh thanks McCain for his 4/6 op-ed on Iraq and writes: "Whatever else one might say about John McCain--and Heaven knows, I have my disagreements with him--he deserves great praise for being one of the most stalwart supporters of the reconstruction effort in Iraq. His editorial on the subject deserves attention."

Also at RedState, Haystack recaps McCain's message during a "love fest" on Sean Hannity: "America needs to know this can be won, it MUST be won, and that even though it will be long, and hard, and tough...it MUST be done for the future of the Iraqis, AND the American people."

As much as McCain gets credit for Iraq Captain's Quarters seconds Jonah Goldberg's op-ed conclusion that conservatives' grudge against McCain is a "reasoned final position" due to his positions on immigration and free speech.

In SC, A Daily Chaser reports McCain Florence County GOP straw poll, but also claim he has flip-flopped on the Confederate flag.

THOMPSON: Isn't The 'Generic' GOPer Getting Killed In The Polls

AmSpec Blog's Philip Klein finds "Breaking News" in revelations that Fred Thompson told Republican Liberty in '94 that the ultimate decision to have an abortion "must be made by the woman." Klein adds: "Thompson now says he is pro-life and calls Roe "bad law." It must also be pointed out that during his 8-year career in the Senate, his voting record was solidly pro-life. But should he decide to jump into the race, they'll no doubt be more scrutiny of his shifting position on abortion."

Race 4 '08s LJ doesn't see the big deal: "I could've sworn I pointed this out weeks ago. ... So, this is pretty old news by blogosphere standards." LJ adds: "Many people are calling Thompson the "flavor of the month" candidate which I think underestimates the passion a lot of conservatives have for him. He's polling better than Romney in most polls without lifting a finger. He has a definite appeal to those who are turned off by Giuliani's liberalism, Romney's questionable convictions and the latent hatred that many conservatives have towards McCain. Thompson, though, is in essence the generic Republican candidate."

DEM FIELD: Edwards Surging

Chris Bowers posts results from MyDD's latest straw poll:

Edwards 43%
Obama 34%
Richardson 8%
Other 6%
Clinton 4%

Obama beat out Edwards in last month's poll 36%-33%.

EDWARDS: Fox Hunter

John Edwards is receiving the lion's share of netroots credit for the death of the CBC/Fox News debate. Daily Kos' mcjoan writes: "We mounted a great deal of pressure on the first debate, but the real pressure on this one came from the African-American community. But there was very little direct pressure on the campaigns themselves, so this is particularly encouraging. Thanks to Edwards for leading, and to Obama and Clinton for joining him. Good show, all."

OBAMA: He Used The L-Word

MyDD's Matt Stoller admits "Obama has a compelling message centering on change and a new way of doing politics" but points out that Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-CT) succeeded by voicing a similar theme. Stoller then tracks recent off message comments from Obama and concludes he is losing the 'Bar Fight Primary.' Most galling for Stoller, "Obama in particular is refusing to lead on Iraq, preferring to argue that his one moment of judgment years ago is a good enough reason to trust him now. I do believe that Obama's decision years ago was incredibly brave, but it's not enough anymore." Stoller concludes: "In other words, he talks about how Washington is broken, about the small-mindedness of DC thinking, about the need for freshness, and then at every point when it counts, he sides with the DC establishment."

Talk Left's Bog tent Democrat seconds Stoller's concerns: "I am becoming convinced that what we have seen is what we will get from Obama. For me, that is not good enough."

TERROR POLITICS: Bush Set Me Up

Gore '00 Dep. Speechwriter Ken Baer is receiving netroots scorn for joining MSM criticism of Speaker Nancy Pelosi's (D-CA) diplomatic dialogue with Syrian dictator Bashar Assad. Baer argues that while the Speaker has every right to conduct fact finding missions, she should not be "delivering communiques and trying to forge new understandings and agreements" with foreign governments.

For his efforts, Atrios slaps Baer with his Wanker of the Day honors and TPM's Josh Marshall responds: "The simple fact is that senior members of Congress routinely go on trips abroad to meet heads of state and government. When they are sufficiently senior, their trips inevitably have diplomatic dimensions in addition to fact-finding ones."

TAPPED's Sam Rosenfeld documents past Speaker "injections" into foreign policy and Matthew Yglesias finds it "quite remarkable" that a Dem consultant would take such criticism public. Again at TPM, Marshall argues the whole story was a GOP setup from the beginning.

THOUGHT OF THE DAY: Keep Your Rules Off Of Us

MyDD's Chris Bowers is one of many bloggers completely unimpressed with New York Timescoverage of Tim O'Reilly's efforts "to create a set of guidelines to shape online discussion and debate." Bowers writes:

My first reaction to the article is how it demonstrates once again that the established media really, really condescends to the blogosphere. ... Anything that portrays blogs as in need of adult supervision generally gets wide play within the established media. Of course, were it ever revealed just how frequently journalists read blogs themselves, one might quickly wonder who was supervising who.

My second reaction is that, no matter how much many members of the media and political establishment are obviously drooling over the prospect, professional codes of conduct and the blogosphere will never mix very well. While there is no denying that the blogosphere is experiencing a strong degree of professionalization and even super-blog consolidation, ultimately blogging is not a practice over which you can hope to establish broadly accepted rules of engagement. Improvements can be made, but the problem will always remain to some degree.

LEST WE FORGET: Not MySpace

The Smoking Gun posts pdfs of "allegedly posting fake MySpace profiles" that ex-students of a PA high school posted describing their principal as "a boozing, MILF-chasing swinger who thought sex with students should be legal unless "you kill them in the process." While the principal was able to to work with MySpace to remove the profiles in a span of five days, the princpal is suing the students for defamation arguing "the online postings damaged his reputation and left him embarrassed and humiliated."