February 13, 2007

2/13: Rudy Rising

Ex-NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani is posting the most commanding lead ever for a WH '08 hopeful in the current GOP Bloggers straw poll. Without any data to back it up, the Blogometer speculates that Giuliani's lead is due to two factors: 1) His official paper filing and increased hiring of campaign staff have convinced many he's serious about running; 2) the previous GOP Blogger straw poll front-runner, MA Gov. Mitt Romney (R), has suffered a death of a thousand flip-flop cuts (on gay rights, abortion, CFR, etc.). With The Smoking Gun posting past oppo on Giuliani, we'll see if his stay at the top can last longer than Romney's.

GOP FIELD: Romney In Free-Fall

GOP Bloggers is conducting their Feb. WH '08 straw poll, and with 7,627 votes in the first-choice favorites are:

Rudy Giuliani 35%
Newt Gingrich 26%
Mitt Romney 15%
Tom Tancredo 6%
Duncan Hunter 5%

The Feb. results contrast sharply with the Jan. results which had Romney ahead with 28% of first choice votes. Gingrich barely moved at all from his 24% showing, but Giuliani rocketed up from his 21%.

Pajamas Media also released their latest straw poll results with a markedly result

Ron Paul 46%
Rudy Giuliani 22%
Newt Gingrich 10%
Mitt Romney 10%
Fred Thompson 3%

GOP FIELD II: Obama Is Not The Center Of The Universe?

Complaining that MSM coverage of the Dem field "will eat up two-thirds or more of the media's" coverage over the next year, Giuliani aide Patrick Ruffini argues the MSMs fixation is "a way for the media to show its bias without being ideological." Ruffini adds: "the Democrats will be seen as generating more grassroots energy than the Republicans, whose voters will be framed as subdued and unmotivated. ... The Democratic nominee will be portrayed as the heroic victor in an epic saga that pitted the "first" woman and minority candidates against each other, with a proven smooth-talker thrown in the mix."

From the left, Atrios agrees, asking "Do Republican Candidates For President Exist?" he answers: "Yes, yes, strange complaint from me, but while we're being given the full soap opera high school coverage of Democratic candidates, it seems that the Republican candidates are being largely ignored."

GOP FIELD III: Is That Like Metro-Sexuals, But Different?

Admitting that the Reagan ("traditional Republicans, anti-Commies, and culturally conservative Dems") and Bush ("traditional Republicans, suburban moms, Hispanics, and evangelical Christians") coalitions are on life support or dead, John McCain aide and Ankle Biting Pundits blogger Patrick Hynes promotes Noemie Emery's "Metro Republicans" and AmSpec Blog's "Post Modern Conservative" as possible future models for the GOP. Hynes concludes: "For the time being anyway, it doesn't appear that a tobacco chewing, redneck, rightwing Republican is the relevant stereotype. Maybe George Allen got out just in time."

GIULIANI: The Next Decider

Rudy Giuliani is again winning conservative blogger praise, this time for his 2/11 Los Angeles Timesop-ed closing: "Presidents can't do nonbinding resolutions. Presidents have to make decisions and move the country forward, and that's the kind of president that I would like to be, a president who makes decisions."

RedState's M Becker responds: "The last paragraph is precisely why NONE of the gnomes in the US Senate are qualified to be President. Ditto for the House." Captain's Quarters seizes on the same passage and adds: "That's the difference between legislators and leaders. Leaders have to make decisions, not engage in self-indulgent whining about them. Giuliani, McCain, and Romney all understand this. Too bad more GOP Senators do not."

TPM Cafe's Eric Kleefeld notes The Smoking Gun has posted portions of the 450-page oppo report done on Giuliani by his own '93 mayoral campaign. Kleefeld highlights some nuggets including; on abortion: "Simplicity is the best response to questions about abortion;" on gay rights: "Giuliani is pretty good on most issues of concern to gay and lesbian New Yorkers ... Gay marriage really is the only issue where Giuliani opposes the gay agenda;" on marrying his cousin: "Despite their time together building sand castles out on Long Island, Giuliani claimed, first, he knew, and then he didn't know, Gina was his second cousin."

HUCKABEE: Hungry, Hungry, Huckabee

SC Hotline's Will Folks posts video of an exclusive interview with Mike Huckabee. They cover his weight, health care, and CATO criticism of Huckabee's fiscal record.

MCCAIN: He's Never Gonna Win A CFR Argument With These Guys

Captain's Quarters posts Team McCain's response to CQ's earlier post on the Washington Post's claim that McCain tapped "Cash He Sought to Limit." McCain writes CQ: "The story's headline and central premise are inaccurate. ... Sen. McCain is not raising money for or taking money from 527s. He is successfully recruiting people to join his fundraising team who have also given to 527s."

CQ responds: "Under the rules as they exist now, McCain has done nothing illegal ... However, we still have to consider his efforts to make these rules, the effect they have had on the campaign system, and on political speech when we evaluate him as a candidate."

ROMNEY: Kerry-Romney Connection Gaining Strength

Commenting on Sam Brownback's "hard-hitting press release" on the eve of Mitt Romney's official announcement, RedState's Rob Bluey writes: "The spat between Republican presidential candidates couldn't come at a worse time for Romney, who is in Michigan to officially announce tomorrow that he's a presidential candidate. On a day when he was hoping to present himself to conservatives as an electable alternative to Sen. John McCain and former Mayor Rudy Giuliani, Romney instead finds himself facing fire from the right."

Bluey quotes from the release: "Mitt Romney's flip flops are enough to make John Kerry blush." IA's Caucus Cooler is also making Kerry-Romney comparisons, this time on agriculture issues. CC links to Drudge Report coverage of '96 Kerry statements supporting a "gutting the Department of Agriculture" as well as similar Romney statements. CC concludes: "it will be interesting to see if [Romney] is held to that same standard."

DEM FIELD: A Post A Day, Keeps The Bloggers At Bay

Zach Exley posts a list of "Top Ten Reasons Why Presidential Candidates Need to Write Their Own Damn Emails and Blog Posts" including number three: "If you can spend six hours per day on high-dollar fundraising, you can take 15 minutes to jot out a note to your supporters." MyDD's Chris Bowers adds: "I don't think that Zach means they should write every post on their campaign blog, but that one every day would be good."

CLARK: A Supplemental Appropriation Comes To Mind

Ex-Gen. Wes Clark posted a Daily Kos diary "Is War with Iran Inevitable?" 2/12 and stuck around for questions including, on Iraq: "What's the optimum Senate resolution, Wes?"

Wes responded: "[I]n order to affect the president's strategy, the Democrats have to threaten something the President wants. This is what our Congressional leadership should be working on...is it confirmation of judges, approval of budget requests, supplementals, or whatever...the power of the purse, as well as the power to investigate, are essential powers of the Congress."

CLINTON: Soft On Obama, Hard On Edwards?

Despite some protestations, the consensus in lefty blog circles is that Hillary Clinton is more hawkish on Iran than her main Dem rivals. Matthew Yglesias condenses: "The precise nuances of what everyone's said about Iran so far aside, it's pretty clear that Edwards and Clinton have similar records as officeholders, that Obama has a somewhat more liberal record than those two, and that Edwards has positioned himself to the left of Obama and Clinton in terms of what he's laid out so far in the campaign."

Mike at Blue Hampshire reviews HRC's recent stop in Keene, NH, including this nugget on logistics: "The Edwards event in Portsmouth seemed to rely heavily on OneCorps volunteers for ushering and the like. This event had just local volunteers that I recognized from all the campaigns and the Cheshire Dems. They seemed less jumpy than the OneCorps volunteers who must have been overwhelmed by Edwards capacity crowd and were perhaps not as used to campaign work."

Mike also posted on Clinton's Iraq position: "Not happy with her answer on Iraq, which skirted around the issue of how Congress could actually put teeth into a bill. If you think we shouldn't put teeth into a bill, or that we don't have the votes, talk to us about that. But don't tell us that since the president is freaking out about the non-binding resolution that it's somehow meaningful. ... Hillary is going to have to come to terms with Iraq soon, I think."

Also focussing on Iraq, TPM Cafe's Greg Sargent documents "sharply contrasting approaches to dealing with John Edwards and Barack Obama when it comes to responding to their criticism of Hillary's Iraq positions." Sargent asks: "Has the Clinton campaign made an internal decision to adopt a hands-off approach to responding to Obama, while aggressively returning fire when Edwards criticizes her? There are lots of possible explanations for such a move. Perhaps the Hillary camp thinks it can more likely win an argument over Iraq with Edwards, who voted for the war, than with Obama, who opposed it from the start."

DODD: What Does Tim Tagaris Get Paid For Again?

Under the header, "Redemption for Menendez?" Daily Kos' mcjoan trumpets the introduction of the "Restoring the Constitution Act of 2007" and urges readers to visit Blue Jersey to find out more about Sen. Bob Menendez's (D-NJ) efforts to "repair some of the damage done" by his vote for the Military Commissions Act.

Blue Jersey notes in "Update 3" of their post: "To clarify, Chris Dodd is the sponsor of this bill and Menendez is a co-sponsor. I'm told the legislation will actually be called "Restoring the Constitution Act of 2007". More information at Restore-Habeas.org.

Matt Browner Hamlin at CT's My Left Nutmeg's comments: "I'd hope that Menendez is sufficiently appreciative of Senator Dodd for letting him jump onto this bill, which Dodd originally proposed in November 2006. ... Also, I'm a bit disappointed that this news broke on Blue Jersey and not a Connecticut blog."

Dodd describes his bill at Restore-Habeas.org: "The bill will restore Habeas Corpus protections to detainees, bar information acquired through torture from being introduced as evidence in trials, and limit presidential authority to interpret the meaning and application of the Geneva Conventions."

EDWARDS: Other Than That, Amanda, How Was The Movie?

Taking a break from her job as official John Edwards campaign blogger, Amanda Marcotte posted a review of the movie Children of Men at her own blogging home, Pandagon including this passage: "The Christian version of the virgin birth is generally interpreted as super-patriarchal, where god is viewed as so powerful he can impregnate without befouling himself by touching a woman, and women are nothing but vessels."

This elicited a press release from Marcotte' Catholic League nemesis Bill Donohue who wrote: "Anyone who actually believes that the birth of Jesus by the Virgin Mary is 'generally interpreted' as being a sexist exercise obviously lives in an anti-Christian ghetto."

Later 2/12, Amanda announced her resignation from the Edwards campaign at Pandagon noting that Donohue had created "a situation where I felt that every time I coughed, I was risking the Edwards campaign. No matter what you think about the campaign, I signed on to be a supporter and a tireless employee for them, and if I can't do the job I was hired to do because Bill Donohue doesn't have anything better to do with his time than harass me, then I won't do it."

Her biggest online supporter, MyDD's Chris Bowers, was "pretty disappointed" by the outcome and blogged that the episode would make "the progressive blogosphere...look really bad." MyDD brethren Matt Stoller was more ambivalent about the matter: "Amanda feels encumbered by the campaign and unable to effectively defend herself from the right-wing. As such, it's the correct decision to make because a Presidential campaign is the wrong place to be if you want to hit back at the right on your own behalf. Aspiring bloggers for campaigns should take note of the restrictions placed on your freedom when you go to work for a campaign."

There was plenty of celebration on the right including this quip from a Captain's Quarters commenter: "a suggestion for Marcotte -- record her blog posts as a book, and she'll almost certainly win a Grammy."

OBAMA: Please Lead Us!

Lefty bloggers are judiciously noting developing anti-Obama memes. Arianna Huffington critiques the "Where's the Beef?" line of attack that she noticed after watching 2/11's Meet The Press. Huffington responds: "don't these guys own a computer? If they took the time to surf the websites of any of the candidates, they'd see that the presidential campaign is already awash in real specifics on all kinds of real challenges. Indeed, they should go to barackobama.com right now and click on 'Issues." They'll see something called "Plan to End the War in Iraq," which is... a plan to end the war in Iraq. But maybe the war isn't a real enough challenge for Russert."

MyDD's Matt Stoller posts a Fox News clip of Obama campaigning and identifies another anti-Obama narrative: "he hates the troops, he's anti-American, and he's weak on national security (the PM Howard story fits in here)."

TPM Cafe's Greg Sargent shares a "Hillary supporter"s criticism of Obama's pre- and post- announcement takes on his Dem rivals Iraq positions. Sargent summarizes: "The Hillary supporter points out to us that Obama was more forgiving of the pre-war failures of his fellow Dems in that interview than he is now that he's in the race. Not a huge deal, by any means, but worth noting. We're passing it along to keep the discussion humming."

Explaining that he was a candidate who is willing and able "to build the progressive movement" MyDD's Chris Bowers notes Obama's 250K member Facebook and 3.5K rally at George Mason University show he has he has the ability but: "If Obama is going to receive a more serious look from me, he is going to have to start embracing all of the remarkable activism that is being done on his behalf."

Talk Left's Big Tent Democrat, however, is already warming up to Obama especially after tellingFrank Rich : "I'm not interested in cheap bipartisanship." BTD concludes: "I'm beginning to believe. I'm not sold yet. I want to hear more. But, I moved a a long way yesterday."

OBAMA II: House Party Goin' On

In press criticism of Obama coverage, The Huffington Post's Logan Nakyanzi Pollard posts a partial transcript of Deborah Dickerson recent The Colbert Report performance and labels Dickerson's claim that Obama is not black: "a divisive, inaccurate, and harmful claim given the challenges that black people face."

IA Progress argues Clinton received much more favorable coverage for her recent trip to the state than Obama did and guesses as to why: "So what's happening? Part of it is that Obama has increased expectations for drawing crowds. When you can draw 17,000 people to attend a speech on a Saturday morning when it's nine degrees outside, the bar has been raised."

Blue Hampshire reports the "house party" for Obama at state Rep. Bette Lasky's (D) house was a "ZOO!" but also complains about having to defend "Senator Obama from media sensationalism" about his popularity.

Finally, Blog P.I. notices the the Create Your Profile page at My.BarackObama.com does not have a "faith/religion" interest category and comments: "Not only has Sen. Obama has faced unfair but persistent questions about his faith, but the entire Democratic Party has been trying since 2004 (at least) to demonstrate that Republicans don't have a lock on "moral values." If "This Campaign is About You," then why not provide a box provided for you to fill in your own most important issue?"

THOUGHT OF THE DAY: As If You Weren't Planning To Watch C-SPAN Already

Kansas City infoZine announces that "five bloggers poised to make a difference in the current campaign" will be speaking on a panel at the Dole Institute's "Blog to the Chief: The Impact of Political Blogs on the 2008 Election" which will be recorded by C-SPAN.

Panel members include: "Patrick Hynes, blog consultant for Sen. John McCain's Straight Talk America PAC and creator of the blog Ankle Biting Pundits; Erick Erickson, managing editor of the conservative blog RedState.com; Jerome Armstrong, one of the architects of Howard Dean's Internet campaign; Joan McCarter, a contributing editor at Daily Kos; and Scott Johnson, co-founder of Power Line Blog."

LEST WE FORGET: With PR Genius Like That, She Should Run For President

ESPN's Page 2 columnist Bill Simmons kept a running diary of 2/11's Grammy Awards including this gem: "

10:59 - As Quentin Tarantino and Tony Bennett announce the nominees for "Record of the Year," we see a shot of a smiling Paris Hilton in the crowd. Good God, can that girl do anything to end her own career? Sex tapes, racial slurs, drugs, hateful personality, no discernible talent at all ... and she's still chugging along. Are we sure she's not Satan? Let's chop her head off and see if it grows back.

Posted by Conn Carroll at February 13, 2007 12:23 PM