Dean's Heir Apparent?

While some netrooters claim the progressive movement has no standard bearer in '08 (unlike '04, with DNC Chair Howard Dean), both his rhetoric and tactics suggest John Edwards will attempt to claim that mantle. Tactically, Edwards coupled his 12/28 New Orleans announcement with a Daily Kos diary seeking Kossack "thoughts and reactions," and a thorough lefty blog-banner ad buy. On the trail, local lefty bloggers are swooning over his embrace of Dean-like rhetoric and his challenge to Sen. Barack Obama's (D-IL) message of hope. We're still far from netroots unanimity on a "movement" candidate. But so far, Edwards is in the lead.

DEM FIELD: A Nightmare

Mystery Pollster looks at "the pollster's nightmare: The Iowa Caucuses" after Research 2000 and American Research Group released polls both showing John Edwards with between 20-22% of likely caucus vote but with Research 2000 showing Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY) at 31% to Sen. Barack Obama's (D-IL) 10% while ARG had Obama tied with Edwards at 22% and Clinton at 10%.

MP notes minor differences in the times the polls were in the field, their screening of respondents, and the potential candidates offered but then concludes: "Whenever very small differences in methodology make for huge differences in results, it suggests that voters are not yet engaged in the race enough to have strong allegiances. Put another way, while each poll may have a candidate running in front, in Iowa at least, there is not yet a true "frontrunner."

Kausfiles, on the other hand, offers plenty of possible explanations: "There's a big difference between 1) asking voters if they "definitely plan" to go to the caucuses, and 2) asking voters if they actually participated in the 2004 caucuses. Lots of people say they "plan" to attend. That's normal! ... In this case, the merely aspirational caucus goers pick Clinton, while the hard core goes for Obama--a result consistent with the idea that Obama is capturing those who think a lot about politics, while those who don't think as much about politics haven't yet been hit by the wave."

EDWARDS: He Is More Movement Now Than Man

Citing a "major multimedia rollout" that included a brief Daily Kos diary and "a big netroots ad buy" (the Blogometer has yet to come across a big league lefty site without an Edwards banner ad), Daily Kos ' BooMan23 labels John Edwards the "emerging...netroots candidate of 2008." BooMan goes on to celebrate Edwards call for an "immediate[] pull out 40-50 thousand troops" and his "emphasizing progressive issues, including rolling back Bush's tax cuts, dramatically increasing taxes on oil companies, expanding health care, and tackling poverty."

The banner ad running on most lefty blogs reads: "Ready To Change America? Join Us. John Edwards08." The ad allows readers to directly link to items including: "1. Watch the video message from New Orleans. 2. Join the Campaign. 3. Spread the Word. 4. Join One Corps."

Noting that Edwards "is going for [Howard] Dean support" MyDD's Matt Stoller asks Dean '04 supporters: "Who are you leaning towards in 2008?" Edwards holds a commanding lead:

John Edwards 52% 124 votes
Barack Obama 17% 41 votes
Other 13% 32 votes
Hillary Clinton 1% 4 votes
Chris Dodd 0% 2 votes
John Kerry 0% 1 vote

Reacting to Edwards' appearances on the trail, a theme emerged:

• Ezra Klein: "His campaign would certainly like to lead in the polls, but Edwards seemed more interested in leading a movement. The virtue of the message is obvious, but its magnetism, urgency, and electoral efficacy are less so."
• MyDD's Nancy Scola: "I had convinced myself before joining up with Mark Warner that it's okay -- healthy even -- for us to end up with a Democratic presidential nominee who was not also at the head of a larger (progressive) movement. I think I largely still think that's true. But Edwards is confusing me because it seems like the latter might be the job that he's auditioning for."
• Blue Hampshire's Mike Caulfield: "You want to know what a preemptive strike on the Obama candidacy looks like? Here is it is, textbook perfect, from John Edwards himself ... "Identifying the problem and talking about hope is waiting for tomorrow." ... he began to weave a theme into the rest of the remarks: There's hope, and there's action. I'm action. ... Edwards, in an unorthodox move, is not asking you to join a campaign. He is asking you to join a movement.

After seeing Edwards in NH, Below Boston also saw Edwards embracing Dean's vision for Dems: "I am in no doubt that John Edwards has been heavily influenced by Howard Dean's unsuccessful run for the Presidency in 2004, Dean's 50-state strategy as head of the DNC, Al Gore's Moveon speeches, and his own unsuccessful run for President and Vice President."

Reporting from IA after a "Townhall thing," TAPPED's Klein "couldn't find a member of the crowd ... who wasn't now supporting Edwards in 2008." Klein was particularly impressed with Edwards willingness to identify health care and global warming as "higher priorities to [Edwards] than the elimination of the deficit."

Edwards did not escape the week unscathed however. The Huffington Post's John Bohrer finds Edwards refusal to endorse gay marriage "frustrating" and urges him to change his position. In more biting criticism Daily Kos' Cheesefire is not impressed with Edwards explanation of how he would have handled Hurricane Katrina differently than Pres. Bush.

EDWARDS II: The Framer

Edwards 12/31 labeling of a U.S. troop increase in Iraq "the McCain doctrine," drew wide lefty blogger praise. DailyKos' founder Markos Moulitsas calls the development "very good" and The Left Coaster thanks Edwards for his "brilliant framing." TAPPED's Tom Schaller suggests the statement shows Edwards has "guts" and adds: "Full credit to Edwards for pointing out that McCain is one of the big losers of the 2006 midterms, and for (finally) attempting to make his former fellow senator pay for it in terms of long-overdue reputational damage."

GORE: A Bad Apple?

The Left Coaster's Paradox is "uncomfortable" with news that "almost mythical demi-god" and Apple board member Al Gore signed off on Steve Jobs' "fraud and lying" over stock option post dating. Paradox writes: "My hero of all time, Al Gore, however, says all is well. I think he's wrong, so the mythical hero worship status he holds in my mind is up for some serious re-examination. Just the thought of this surprisingly hurts, however, and gives me a glimmer to the pain I caused for the obvious (likely justified) hero status many hold for Steve Jobs. I'm sorry about that, man."

GIULIANI: In It To Win It?

New York Daily News' Rudy Giuliani campaign plan revelations drew mostly yawns from conservative bloggers. Those unimpressed with the story include: "

• RCP Blog's Tom Bevan: "The document is a bit of an embarrassment for Giuliani, but Smith overhypes it by characterizing it as a "potentially disastrous blunder." After all, the four issues cited in the memo as potential problem points for Rudy's candidacy (his private business, his relationship with Bernie Kerik, his third-wife, and his liberal positions on "social issues") are hardly surprising."
• Outside the Beltway: "Aside from listing the people Giuliani plans to target to handle key organizational roles-which gives a heads up to rivals and creates potential embarrassment if he is unsuccessful at bringing them on board-this doesn't seem like that big of a deal. That those bullet points are key vulnerabilities is common knowledge, as is the need to raise oodles of money. Still, if your chief selling point is executive competence, such stumbles aren't good."
• Eyeon08: "The effect of all of this is that Giuliani has to redouble. We now have a plan to measure him by that he is already behind on. If he can't raise the money or hire the staff or build the donor base, we will all know it. It could make it harder for Giuliani."

Ankle Biting Pundit's Bull Dog Pundit, however, identified one potentially harmful nugget: "But there is one item in there that will spook potential political and financial supporters: The author of the document seems to reference concerns that Rudy might not see the race through because of these vulnerabilities. ... Me thinks that Rudy is going to have to come out quickly and let these potential donors and supporters know that he's in it for the long haul."

Back in IA, the Caucus Cooler posts less than confirmed news that Rep./'06 IA Gov. nom. Jim Nussle (R) aide Andrew Dorr "has apparently been tapped to lead Rudy Giuliani's Iowa efforts." CC adds: "The Cooler has been saying for months that Rudy would play in Iowa, those that think he's going to skip it -- we believe are mistaken. Giuliani has said he would announce an Iowa staff after the New Year, if Dorr is going to be running the ship, that would make for a good start."

HUCKABEE: Kfire Khazard

IA's Krusty Konservative fingers Mike Huckabee as his "breakout presidential keynote for 2007," writing: "any caucus vet ... will tell you that there is always a konservative kandidate who will catch on fire and make a lot of noise in Iowa. After looking at the potential Republican field, I think Mike Huckabee is the kandidate who is primed for a big year." KK concludes: "I think Mike Huckabee is primed for a great year. It is important to note that this is not an endorsement of Mike Huckabee. It is just my gut feeling that Mike Huckabee will emerge as the konservative kandidate in Iowa."

IA's Caucus Cooler reiterates their "Huckleberry" doubts: "The thing is, while Huckabee has been deafeningly silent over the past few months other candidates, Sam Brownback and Jim Gilmore, are taking the juice out of his "credible social konservative kandidate." Not to mention that Huckabee isn't exactly a flawless right-winger himself (taxes, immigration). So that's why we've been poo-pooing his campaign of late."

ROMNEY: Apparently, He's Running

The long expected news that Mitt Romney plans to form a presidential exploratory committee drew little blogger reaction (The Corner's John Podhoretz labels the item his "Shock News of the Year!"). Ankle Biting Pundit's B.T. was particularly unimpressed: "I believe Romney has about as much chance of winning in '08 as a snowball does in a forest fire. No one that let's their state's supreme court run roughshod over the separation of powers deserves to hold high office where such shenanegans have greater impact on average citizens."

RedState CEO Erick Erickson did offer a lukewarm endorsement of Romney: "Were the Presidential Preference Primary held today, I'd be voting for Mitt Romney. ... My preference is Rudy [Giuliani], but his positions on social matters prevent me from voting for him." Erickson adds: "I want to also admit that I am one of those southern evangelicals who has deep qualms with Mitt Romney being a Mormon. I know I shouldn't, but I do. And while everyone is talking about whether it will matter or not, I think I should chime in and say that yes it will, but no it shouldn't."

IA's Krusty Konservative is no Romney fan, but is impressed that "most, if not all of their campaign staff [is] in place during the first week of January, a full year before the caucus." KK details:

Campaign Manager: Gentry Collins
Iowa Chairman: Doug Gross
Political Director: Jill Latham
Field Staff - Chad Airhart, Marcus Branstad,
Sarah Craig, Derek Flowers,
Tim Moran, and Candace Turitto
Event Planning - Straw Poll Coordinator: Nicole Schlinger
Iowa Consultant: David Kochel
Consultant: Brian Kennedy

KK then advises: "Romney lacks a social conservative grassroots organizer on his Iowa Team. The problem for Romney is there is not an abundance of them in the state, so they are difficult to get. ... This is an area where Romney will have to be creative and find someone with the right connections to make inroads with Iowa's social conservatives. Romney will have to aggressively court them if he wants to win the caucus."

Continuing his righty blogger charm offensive Mitt Romney sat for a phone interview with The Right Angle's Robert Bluey 12/27 including:

• On more troops for Iraq: "I'm not going to weigh in. I'm still a governor. I'm not running for national office at this stage."
• On his pro-life record: "Conservatives, of course, can make their own assessment. But the great thing is people don't have to look at what people say, they can look at what they do. ... So talk is cheap, but action is real. And people can now look at my record."
• On gay marriage: "my view on marriage has been entirely consistent over my political career. And that is that I oppose same-sex marriage. I also oppose civil unions. There are some people who feel that is inconsistent with also encouraging the elimination of discrimination against gay people as well as others of differences. I'm very much opposed to discrimination. I also recognize that it's not wise to create a special class and establish new rights for any particular group. But I'm opposed to discrimination.

ROMNEY II: A Cafeteria Mormon?

The New Republic's 1/15 issue piece on Romney and Mormonism comes in for some righty blogger criticism but also some agreement on how Romney ought to address the issue. The Corner's Byron York argues that while TNR does take some "standard-issue jab[s] at the right" if Romney does appeal to voters with his faith then TNR is correct when suggesting "people will want to know more about that faith."

Fellow CorneriteRamesh Ponnuru was less impressed with the analysis: "Romney might try to appeal to religious-conservative voters not on the basis of his religious faith but on the basis of his agreement with them on the public-policy issues that most concern them. Linker, toward the end of his piece, signals that he doesn't see the distinction, but I think that says more about his own embrace of liberalism than about the possible alternatives available." Evangelicals for Mitt makes a similar argument.

Outside the Beltway, however, posts video of the end of South Park's Mormon episode and comments: "If that's Romney's interpretation-that he's a "cafeteria Mormon," if such a thing can be said to exist-then he'll get a pass from me on his theology. If he actually believes in the literal truth of LDS teachings, though, I'll dismiss him as a nut."

SEN LANDSCAPE: The Fab Five

MyDD's Jonathan Singer pairs "Presidential Support Score" numbers ("the percentage of roll call votes in which a given member of Congress supported the publicly-held position of the White House") with Cook Political Report Senate Race Ratings to identify potential '08 netroots targets. Those mentioned include: Sens. John Sununu (R-NH), Wayne Allard (R-CO), Gordon Smith (R-OR), Norm Coleman (R-MN), and Susan Collins (R-ME).

NE SEN: Another One Bites The Dust?

A 12/29 Leavenworth Street post forwarding KMTV Omaha reports that two Sen. Chuck Hagel (R) "insiders" claim Hagel will not run for re-election drew interest from Daily Kos diarist Kagro X: "If the reports pan out, what are we witnessing here? ... are we seeing a collapse of the Republican Rubber Stamp bulwark upon which the foundations of the White House's bunker mentality has rested? Merely a fraying around the edges? Or just another round of Republican casualties of the failed Bush agenda?"

Swing State Project commenters seem to prefer rancher Scott Kleeb (D) for the Dem nod.

VA SEN: The Legend Of Macaca Continues

American Spectator's 1/2 article on Sen. John Warner's (R) '08 deliberations is prompting netroots crowing over an anonymous GOP consultant quoted: "The far-left wing of the party was so aggressive in Virginia with guerrilla tactics, Web attack ads and blog posts, that Warner has to look at all that and wonder if it's worth that kind of fight."

Raising Kaine founder and Sen.-elect James Webb (D) netroots coordinator Lowell Feld comments: "Translation of "far-left-wing?" Uh, I think they're talking about us, the Virginia Progressive blogger community. Ha."

DailyKos' founder Markos Moulitsas chimes in: "Here's a promise to the Republican Warner -- the Virginia and national blogospheres will be even more sophisticated, bigger, and aggressive than we were in 2006. If John Warner wants to avoid the Allen treatment, then a nice, cushy, comfortable retirement is a great option."

NY 19: Who Would Want Their Children To Grow Up Redskins Fans?

The Right Angle's John Gizzi reports ex-WH press sec. Ari Fleischer will not seek the GOP nod to challenge Rep. John Hall (D-19) in '08. Fleischer explained: "I don't want my children to grow up to be Redskins fans!"

IRAQ: The Times They Are A-Changin'

A 12/29 Military Timespoll showing the "American military ... has grown increasingly pessimistic about chances for victory" is generating lefty blogger excitement. TPM Cafe's Greg Sargent first picked up on the story noting that while only 38% of the 6K Armed Forces members polled "think there should be more troops [in Iraq] than there are now" while 39% "think there should be the same number or less than there are now." Sargent adds: "For the first time, more respondents disapprove of Bush's handling of the Iraq war than approve of it. ... And only half think success in Iraq is likely -- down from 83 percent two years ago."

DailyKos' founder Markos Moulitsas highlights the pollsters description of the sample: "the survey's respondents are on average older, more experienced, more likely to be officers and more career-oriented than the overall military population." Kos comments: "In other words, we're talking about the most conservative segment of the military. These are lifers. (The enlisted ranks are far more liberal, drawn mostly from poor African American, Latino, and Anglo demographics, though also young thus politically disengaged.)"

Following the story through 1/2 Sargent and Washington Monthly guest poster Steve Benen wonder why more MSM outlets have not picked up on the story. Benen writes: "For reasons that are unclear, the media seems to have missed the poll entirely. In terms of newspapers, the San Jose Mercury News and the Seattle Times were the only U.S. papers to run stories of their own. Reuters and UPI mentioned the poll in wire stories, which were not widely picked up. That's it. That's all the print coverage the poll received."

IRAQ II: Spontaneous Combustion

While more than disappointed by Sen. Joe Lieberman's (I-CT) 12/28 WaPoop-ed supporting more troops for Iraq, Firedoglake's Jane Hamsher was buoyed by the "37 pages of negative responses" in the WaPo comments section. Hamsher was not just impressed with the number of voices agreeing with her, but also by the fact she "didn't recognize a one." Hamsher writes: "No, people just spontaneously showed up and were appalled that anyone could be promoting this kind of lunacy. The response to Lieberman's call for escalation in the war was loud, forthright and agressive - no more."

Atrios echoed Hamsher's sentiments: "Once upon a time it took a concerted effort by whatever large liberal internet forces existed to make any kind of blip. Now these things happen without any of the big traffic generators trying to make it happen."

In other blogger/Iraq news, Andrew Sullivan officially came out in favor of withdrawal: "But my view right now is that we should withdraw most combat troops by the middle of this year; and leave a remaining force in the Kurdish region and along the Iraq-Turkey border."

BLOGGERS VS. BELTWAY: Everybody Loves Henke

Incoming Senate Min. Leader Mitch McConnell's (R-KY) hiring of QandO blogger Jon Henke as his New Media Director drew wide blogger attention. Instapundit and The Right Angle's Robert Bluey both celebrate the hiring with Instapundit adding: "And he's right to say with regard to the blogosphere, "the Republicans are getting into the game a bit late."

Power Line's contributors had a more mixed reaction. Paul Mirengoff notes Henke "is no friend of Power Line" but does wish him well, while Scott Johnson "thought he did a good job under unexpectedly difficult circumstances for Senator Allen."

The hire even draw measured praise from the competition. MyDD's Matt Stoller writes: "Henke is smart and got an up front view of the Allen debacle as Allen's blogger. Unlike most of the wingnutosphere, Henke is a genuine strategic thinker who understands the dynamics of internet politics and the game of modern communications. He's not inward looking and he gets that the right has to seriously invest and change their institutional framework to catch up to us. This is an excellent hire by McConnell, and it suggests he will be a very formidable leader."

THOUGHTS OF '06: Lover Him Or Hate Him, Olbermann's No. 1

The left's Brilliant at Breakfast names their "Brilliant 20 of 2006" including:

• 1. Keith Olbermann. Perhaps no one was more instrumental in tearing down the wall of delusion that the mainstream media had built around George W. Bush than the former ESPN sportscaster.
• 2. Michael J. Fox. If Keith Olbermann began tearing down the wall around George W. Bush, Michael J. Fox exposed the gargoyle behind even the lame mask of Rush Limbaugh.
• 3. S.R. Sidarth. Every now and then, someone's fifteen minutes of fame changes the course of history. It doesn't happen often, but when it does, the effect can be cataclysmic.
• 4. Stephen Colbert. The gasbags of the media right give lip service to courage while safely ensconced in their studios. ... This year, the pre-eminent fake right wing personality entered the belly of the beast and promptly laid a lovely 24-karat gold turd in the punchbowl.
• 5. Howard Dean. ...it was the 50 state strategy, which sought to build Democratic organizations and field candidates in every state, in every district, which brought the results.

On the right, Right Wing News names his "Twenty Most Annoying Liberals In The United States: The 2006 Edition" including:

• 16) Andrew Sullivan
• 9) Markos Moulitsas Zuniga
• 3) The New York Times
• 2) Jimmy Carter
• 1) Keith Olbermann

LEST WE FORGET: If Only We Could Make Others' Resolutions

Arianna Huffington comes up with many 2007 New Year's resolutions she'd "like to hear," including:

• "I will run for president of the United States." -- Sen. Barack Obama
• "I will not take SNL's 'Dick in a Box' video as a gift-giving primer." -- Bill Clinton
• "I will not grant interviews about important issues after 5 p.m. -- or anytime I don't know what the hell I'm talking about." -- Rep. Silvestre Reyes (D-TX), incoming chair of the House Intelligence Committee
• "I will pick a party and stick with it." -- Sen. Joe Lieberman
• "Panty check. Every day." -- Britney Spears