January 16, 2007

1/16: Romney Rising

While Sen. Barack Obama's (D-IL) refusal to come out strongly against Pres. Bush's Iraq surge continues to allow John Edwards to shore up netroots support, MA Gov. Mitt Romney's continued rise in righty blogger straw polls mysteriously impresses. Romney has received praise for reaching out to conservative bloggers, but there is no signature issue or event to point to that can explain his steady online rise. If anything, 12/06 was his toughest month so far with repeated revelations of past statements and positions that many righty bloggers admitted troubled them. Romney's new lead is by no means large. But after looking at last month, what would it take to derail him as a blogger favorite?

GOP FIELD: Number One ...

GOP Bloggers wrapped up their 1/07 Primary Straw Poll 1/14 and MA Gov. Mitt Romney (R) took first place for the first time in the monthly poll's history. Via The Right Angle's Robert Bluey, Romney Online Comm. Dir. Stephen Smith adds: "Governor Romney leads 'first choice' at all levels of vote certainty; Governor Romney leads 'first choice' at all levels of blog readership; Governor Romney comes in the top three in 'first choice' and 'candidacy acceptability' at each of the top eight participating blogs." Straw poll results include:

Mitt Romney 28%
Newt Gingrich 24%
Rudy Giuliani 21%
Tom Tancredo 6%
John McCain 4%
Sam Brownback 4%
Duncan Hunter 3%
Mike Huckabee 2%
Chuck Hagel 1%
Jim Gilmore 1%
Tommy Thompson 1%
George Pataki 0%

Right Wing News analyzes: "Mitt Romney has really rocketed up the charts in the last few months. For example, if you look back to July of last year, he was sitting at only 17.9%. ... After [George] Allen went down in flames, it looks as if most of his support went to Romney with a little spillover going to [Newt] Gingrich while Rudy [Giuliani] has stayed in about the same spot (he was +30.6% back then). ... On the other hand, Gingrich is not only just a hair behind Romney's poll, he's beating the pants off him in state by state polling. This suggests that Newt has the support not just of the average Republicans, but of the online activists, which means he has a real shot to win this thing if he wants to try to grab the brass ring."

The Corner's Kathryn Jean Lopez points readers to a Maricopa County GOP straw poll posted by Sonoran Alliance showing Duncan Hunter leading the GOP field followed by Romney, Gingrich, and then Sen. John McCain (R-AZ). Unfortunately for McCain, he also heads up the list of "Unacceptable Presidential Candidates" in the same straw poll followed by Sen. Chuck Hagel (R-NE) and ex-NY Gov. George Pataki (R).

Finally, McCain advisor Patrick Hynes of Ankle Biting Pundits notes positive reactions to appearances by McCain and Romney on the Glenn and Helen Show and asks: "The Road to the White House Passes Through ... Knoxville, TN?" Hynes explains: "Up here in New Hampshire we like to think we have a special role in the presidential nomination selection process. But increasingly, if a candidate wants to communicate with today's citizen activists, they have as much need to call into the Glenn and Helen Show as to make a trip to Dixville Notch."

ROMNEY: ... With A Bullet

Despite leading the most recent GOP Bloggers poll, Mitt Romney is still taking plenty of blogger criticism. Both Right Angle's Robert Bluey and Townhall's Matt Lewis argue Romney's recent release of a "706-word" "take down" of MA social conservative activist Brian Camenker was heavy handed. Bluey called the research briefing's release "un-presidential" and Lewis quotes a source close to a potential rival: "This is the dumbest stunt by a tier one presidential candidate since George Romney claimed he had been brainwashed by the generals and diplomats."

In other Romney-hating, NH's GraniteGrok doesn't want "to be that guy in NH that keeps bashin' Romney," but goes on to follow the Boston Globelead noting differences between Romney's position on gun control now and when he ran against Sen. Ted Kennedy (D-MA) in '94. GG also links to a YouTube of Romney distancing himself from Ronald Reagan during a debate in that same '94 race and comments: "Watching the old footage of Mitt badmouthing the Reagan presidential era during his debate with Ted Kennedy was almost shocking to behold, given his supposed "conservatism."

On 1/15 Townhall's Hugh Hewitt briefly interviewed Romney. Hewitt highlights Romney's concerns on Iran: "I'd also note that I agree that the President is not opening up a new front against Iran, and I've heard that there have been people who've said oh, I think he's opening the door to go into Iran. That is not what we're doing as a country. We are doing our very best to bring stability to Iraq. But of course, if there are other parties like Iran that are in Iraq, then individuals firing on us will receive return fire."

Later Romney also commented on Pres. Bush's call for more troops: "The President's right on this. There's no question this is going to be a very difficult course for our nation to follow. And this effort, surging our troops there, may not solve the problem. There's no guarantee that this will work. But one thing I think is quite clear, and that is that this is the next right step, it is the right sequential step."

MCCAIN: Pawlenty Of Praise, Criticism, And Advice

Power Line's Scott Johnson thanked Bill Bennett "and his colleagues" for allowing Power Line "to be among the first news outlets reporting" MN Gov. Tim Pawlenty will be the national co-chair of John McCain's WH '08 bid. The Right Angle's Amanda Carpenter highlights the announcement: "This endorsement is particularly significant because the Republican National Convention will be held in Minneapolis. Pawlenty, who is one of the few Republican governor's to survive the 2008 midterm elections, is also expected to become chairman of the National Governors Association this summer."

Also at Right Angle, Matt Naugle explains Dr. James Dobson's refusal to support McCain ""under any circumstances" are unlike the comments made by Rev. Jerry Falwell: "Dobson is upset with Senator McCain's cloudy position on gay marriage and McCain's support of Democrat legislation that would create new obstacles for grassroots organizations ... The legislation Dobson is referring to is Section 220 of Senate Bill 1, which would add a load of bureaucratic red tape to any group taking part in grassroots communications which has expenses of $25,000 or more. ... The Hill reported that The Free Speech Coalition, lead by prominent conservatives such as Richard Viguerie and Paul Weyrich, is vigorously campaigning against this assault by Senate Democrats (and John McCain) on the 1st Amendment."

Right Angle'z, Robert Bluey advises: "Sen. John McCain is losing ground. Romney's decision to invest heavily in his online operation should send McCain a message: It's time to overhaul the black-and-white website with something more substantive and hire a full-time person to deal with bloggers."

EDWARDS: Surging Ahead

John Edwards 1/15 address at NY's Riverside Church drew wide lefty blogger praise. TPM Cafe's Greg Sargent describes the venue as "Hillary's Turf" and reminds readers the church is "where Martin Luther King delivered an oration against the Vietnam war 40 years ago." Sargent adds: "Edwards -- who's seeking to distinguish himself as the most forcefully antiwar Dem candidate -- plans to reach for King's antiwar mantle as he calls for an end to the current conflict."

The Nation's Ari Melber, Atrios, The Left Coaster, and Firedoglake's Pachacutec all praised Edwards words. The Left Coaster writes: "Edwards knows that he can maneuver around both the too-cautious Hillary and Obama on the issue of the surge. He apparently has read the same polls, knowing that if he gets out in front of a "no funds for the surge" movement, he will not only grab the party's base but also a large portion of independent voters as well."

CLINTON: Time To Repent?

MyDD's Matt Stoller picks up on Hillary Clinton aide Howard Wolfson's "John Edwards used to constantly brag about running a positive campaign" comments and replies: "Senator Clinton might or might not come around to the 'right' position on Iraq, but her timing on the issue is as revealing of her character and priorities as the position itself. Wolfson is speaking to the press and saying that Edwards is being too mean and not like his happy talk self in 2004. Journalists might care about such 'attacks', but they ring hollow out here, where Google has memory of Senator Clinton's complicity from 2002-2007. Her lack of action has allowed this war to go on as long as it has, and that's a sin she ought to acknowledge and work to make up for."

GORE: Draft Gore Drifting Away?

MyDD's Jerome Armstrong takes Reuters to task for a story on Al Gore speaking in Japan titled: "Al Gore: I'm Not Running for President." Armstrong argues: "The story in question has a single quote that doesn't say anything. In fact, in NewsMax, the Reuters wire story has the quote "I'm involved in a different kind of campaign", and on Reuters website says, 'involved in "a different kind of campaign."' Shoddy."

Fellow MyDDer Chris Bowers adds: "If people think the Reuters story is bogus, then they should ask Reuters to either produce a quote, or post a retraction. It would be a big story either way, so this is something that needs to be done. I think that would be a more than reasonable action for any Draft Gore movement to take. In fact, if it didn't take this action, can we put any faith in the Draft Gore movement at all?"

OBAMA: Fine, But Not Fine

Writing before news of Barack Obama's official announcement, Atrios is not satisfied with Obama's 1/14 Face the Nationstatements on Iraq. Atrios quotes Obama, "If there are ways that we can constrain and condition what the president is doing, so that four to six months from now we are considering a phased withdrawal, that is the area that I am most interested in supporting," and then reposts a similar 11/20 criticism of Obama on the war: "The basic content of what Obama is saying, divorced from the larger debate, is fine, but as to how it plays in the current debate it's not fine. ... The thing is that "bring them home now" doesn't really mean now. It doesn't mean that thousands of troops start boarding transport planes for the trip home. It just means that the focus shifts from staying to leaving, and the latter slowly begins to happen. Every time someone punts that action for yet another Friedman [six months], it helps to ensure that the end of the war will always be a Friedman away."

CO SEN: Quacks Like An Allard

Picking up reports that Sen. Wayne Allard (R-CO) won't seek a 3rd term, lefties are rejoicing: "Colorado was already the Democrats' top pickup opportunity," says Kos. "Senate Republicans are weeping today." MyDD's Jonathan Singer notes that likely Dem nominee/Rep. Mark Udall has $1.3M in the bank and concludes: "Given that Colorado Democrats, in the past two cycles, have picked up the governorship, both chambers of the state legislature, a Senate seat and two Congressional seats, and that the Democratic Party has selected Denver to house its nominating convention in 2008, there is no doubt that this will be one of the top targets for the strategists and activists trying to extend the Democratic majority in the United States Senate."

John McIntyre at Real Clear Politics thinks Allard wasn't the best candidate for the GOP anyway, making his retirement a net gain for the party: "Allard would have faced an uphill battle" against Udall. "If former two-term Governor Bill Owens were to throw his hat in the ring, Republicans would probably be favored to hold the seat. The other prominent names mentioned on the GOP side at this early stage would likely be considered slight underdogs against Udall." John J. Miller is also holding his breath for an Owens bid.

NH SEN: $8.93 For Sununu

In the Granite State, Blue Hampshire's Mike is sick of Simon Gift Cards with just a few dollars left on them. So he proposes "Gift Cards for a Blue America," asking readers to use the balance of their gift cards to donate to ActBlue's NH Sen '08 page.

DCCC: Target Red

Howie Klein again takes on the DCCC for recruiting "the least progressive, most pro-corporate end of the Democratic caucus and is firmly under the control of ... Rahm Emanuel." Klein further breaks down the DCCC's recruitment cmte: "The members of the committee are Artur Davis (AL-07), Russ Carnahan (MO-03), Mike Doyle (PA-14), Rahm Emanuel (IL-05), Steve Israel (NY-02), Ron Kind (WI-03), Jim Matheson (UT-02), Betty McCollum (MN-04), Mike Ross (AR-04), Tim Ryan (OH-17), Adam Schiff (CA-29), Hilda Solis (CA-32) and Debbie Wasserman Schultz (FL-20). The Committee is far more in the Emanuel-Hoyer camp than in the Pelosi camp and even among the 3 token liberals on the committee - Hilda Solis, Betty McCollum and Debbie Wasserman-Schultz - one in a complete Emanuel puppet (Wasserman-Schultz), who has already proven herself ready and willing to backstab grassroots candidates when Hoyer or Emanuel tell her to."

Further, Klein promises a netroots effort against Reps. Tim Murphy (R-PA), Gary Miller (R-CA), Rick Renzi (R-AZ), John Doolittle (R-CA), Jerry Lewis (R-CA) and Vito Fossella (R-NY).

IRAQ: Micromanagers Not Wanted

Righty blogger reaction to Pres. Bush's 1/10 call for more troops in Iraq continues to be mixed. Red State's Jeff Emanuel found the speach "and the strategy it laid out - rang disappointingly hollow." Townhall's Dean Barnett supports the new policy but argues Bush is not capable of convincing the nation: "After six years, the country has tired of his shtick. ... That's the state of things, and the president won't be able to convince a single American of that reality who doesn't already know it. Which means the rest of us will have to do it for him."

Among those trying to convince Americans to support the surge, Captain's Quarters posts his interview with surge-doubter Sen. Norm Coleman (R-MN). CQ writes: "As always, Senator Coleman made his point with eloquence and careful thought -- but I'm still in disagreement with him. Listen to bothportions and decide for yourself."

Over at the CornerAndy McCarthy praises 1/16's WaPo op-ed by David Rivkin and Lee Casey on the constitutional limits of congressional conditions on executive war powers. McCarthy comments: "You oppose the war? Fine. Then have the courage of your convictions: Cut off funding and be politically accountable - and live with responsibility for the ensuing disaster that withdrawing while al Qaeda is still on the battlefield would be. ... But if you're not willing to end the fighting - which it is within your power to do - you don't get to micromanage the fighting."

Finally, Andrew Sullivan notes evangelicals have flipped on the war. Sullivan links to The Plank citing new AP/Ipsospoll numbers showing: "While 52 percent of Republicans support the surge according to a just-released AP/Ipsos poll, some 60 percent of white evangelicals oppose it, as do 56 percent of self-described conservatives." Sullivan reasons: "So we have the beginnings of what I referred to today on the Chris Matthews' Show: an anti-war, socially conservative surge in the Republican party. Now all you have to do is add economic populism to that mix, and you've got yourself a powerful electoral combination. Is this the horse Sam Brownback plans to ride in on? Someone surely will."

IRAQ II: It Sure Didn't Help The First Bush

Noting that the first Gulf War was "a lot less unpleasant than the current one" Atrios wonders how it became "universally thought of as The Good War." Atrios argues "that taking the longer view it's not clear what the Great and Glorious First Gulf War actually accomplished that was positive. ... Through the narrow lens of American politics it's true that politicians didn't pay a price of supporting it, though I'm not really sure anyone paid the price for opposing it either, but that really has little to do with whether from a broader perspective it was a sensible thing to do, even without pointing out that maybe there was a way to stop Hussein from invading Kuwait before he did so which didn't involve military force.

THOUGHT OF THE DAY: Merciless

Describing ex-Bush speechwriter Michael Gerson as "critical" to understanding "how George W. Bush destroyed conservatism as a coherent governing philosophy" Andrew Sullivan quotes from Gerson's recent Newsweekarticle : "Campaigning on the size of government in 2008, while opponents talk about health care, education and poverty, will seem, and be, procedural, small-minded, cold and uninspired. ... What does antigovernment conservatism offer to inner-city neighborhoods where violence is common and families are rare? Nothing. ... Anti-government conservatism turns out to be a strange kind of idealism - an idealism that strangles mercy."

Sullivan responds: "If you don't believe big government is the answer to the problems of poverty, you have no mercy? Suddenly, Bush's attack on the conservative soul becomes more comprehensible."

LEST WE FORGET: Swimming With Dolphins

The Pop Culture Addict takes us to a meeting of the Teen Titans to illustrate why Aqualad tops his list of "Top Ten Lamest Superheroes Of All Time."

Robin: Okay everybody - how was your week this week? This week Batman and I stopped the Joker from causing mass genocide! What did you do this week Speedy?

Speedy: This week Green Arrow and I shook down some crooked politicians, joined a peace rally, stopped some racist cops and fed the homeless some of Green Arrow's famous chili - how about you Donna?

Wonder Girl: Wow -- me and Wonder Woman flew to Mount Olympus in her invisible jet and had a special meeting with Zeus and the other gods of Mount Olympus... how about you Aqualad?

Aqualad: Ummmm ... me and Aquaman stopped some dolphins from going into a hydro dam!

Kid Flash: Wow - you suck Aqualad.

Posted by Conn Carroll at January 16, 2007 12:37 PM