January 12, 2007

1/12: Trend-Spotting

We used this space 1/10 to note that public figures are increasingly taking the blogosphere seriously. On that day, 3 top Sens guest-posted at blogs of their choice. Today, the blogosphere tries to be more than just a well-read opinion page by breaking and making some news.

Righties are calling for ex-Sen. Fred Thompson (R-NBC Tuesdays at 8) to make a bid for the WH. Lefties are reporting on an apparent attack email aimed at discrediting Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL). Chris Bowers and Jonathan Singer continue to write election analysis for every race they can think of, and though the slant is more likely to be found in a DNC press release than on the pages of a paper, they back up their claims with a significant amount of data. RedState reports on the flip of a legislative chamber in MS. And, in the big buzz of the day, some are out front on claims that the Bush admin is preparing -- and may have already begun -- secret wars against Syria and Iran.

The blogosphere will, and already has, changed the approach the MSM takes to reporting and covering the news. But can both the left and the right -- at least the reputable writers out there -- transcend the shouting matches and actually start replacing some MSM outlets in non-bloggers' reading preferences?

BUSH: Prepared To Define "Damasectomy"

"We will disrupt the attacks on our forces. We'll interrupt the flow of support from Iran and Syria. And we will seek out and destroy the networks providing advanced weaponry and training to our enemies in Iraq." With those words, spoken during his 1/9 speech to the nation, Pres. Bush incited fear in the lefty blogosphere that a secret war with Iran and Syria is already under way. Many cite Steve Clemons as an expert on the matter: "Washington intelligence, military and foreign policy circles are abuzz today with speculation that the President, yesterday or in recent days, sent a secret Executive Order to the Secretary of Defense and to the Director of the CIA to launch military operations against Syria and Iran. The President may have started a new secret, informal war against Syria and Iran without the consent of Congress or any broad discussion with the country." Josh Marshall must have some similarly worried sources.

The Agonist pieces together some circumstantial evidence: "the new military leader in charge of the area, Adm. William Fallon, is a naval aviator - that's not who you'd put in charge of the war in Iraq, which is a ground op, but a strike on Iran will be an air and naval operation, especially once Iran retaliates by trying to shut the straight of Hormuz." Slightly righty Counterterrorism Blog delves into the language Bush used, noting that the pres. said Iran was providing "material support" to the insurgency, which makes Iran's actions counter to US criminal law.

Most who blog on the subject point to a 1/10 raid conducted by US forces against the Iranian consulate in the Kurdish North as the beginning of a wider operation. Majikthise, typical of those focusing on the raid: "Yesterday's raid on an Iranian consulate inside Iraq was not an encouraging sign. The United States appears to be deliberately and precipitously escalating tensions with Iran." == Others point to the 1/10 testimony by Sec/State Condoleezza Rice in front of the Sen Foreign Relations Cmte and concerns about admin plans raised by Sen./Cmte chair Joe Biden (D-DE), including Tennessee Guerilla Women.

Joe Gandelman: "If this happens fasten your safety belts. It would be a rejection not only of the concept of the executive branch even partially consulting with the legislative branch, but be a virtual repudiation of the Jim Baker-headed Iraq Study Group that advocated talking with Iran and Syria versus engaging them militarily and more than ever Bush would be governing with the support of his now-smaller partisan base."

Cannonfire makes the case based on a year's worth of news reports. == No More Mister Nice Blog: "The fact that Bush is trying to gin up a war with Iran and/or Syria is now obvious to anyone who's paying any attention at all." == Along with many others, DownWithTyrannyat-Largely are talking about impeachment all over again.

From the right, Iowa Voice cites the same passage and comes up with a much different conclusion: "It was great that the President called a spade a spade and pointed out that we know what Iran and Syria are doing and that we won't put up with it." Ace of Spades isn't buying it and mocks the left as much as possible, while John Hawkins rounds up righty blogger reax to the speech.

Back to the left, Taylor Marsh devoted part of the radio show to the subject. Prairie Weather, Democratic Daily, Hullabaloo, Whiskey Fire, Tom Hilton, Michael at Discourse.net, Suburban Guerrilla and Echidne comment, and Atrios links.

First Draft notes news reports stating that the 24-month active duty limit for Nat'l Guard troops and Reserve troops has been waived, and that, according to statements made by the Army Reserve chief, only a pres. can deliver such an order.

Meanwhile, Pres. Bush got at least some Dem support 1/10 when Rep. Jim Marshall (D-GA) told MSNBC that he supported most of the plan to increase troops in Baghdad. Righty Blue Crab Boulevard: "His position cannot be endearing him to Nancy Pelosi, but Tom Curry, the author of the story, is absolutely right. She really should listen to people like Marshall unless she's willing to see the House change hands again in 2008. (Not that I believe she will, but that's another story.)" Wake up America points to Marshall's interview and support from Sen. Joe Lieberman (I/D-CT). == On the other side, Chris Bowers tracks a dozen GOP Sens opposed to the plan.

Finally, Sen. Min. Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) held a conference call with righty bloggers 1/10 a.m. to discuss Bush's Iraq speech. California Yankee, Paul Mirengoff and John Hawkins have reports.

BROWNBACK: Gutsy Move

TNR's Noam Scheiber blogs at The Plank, calling Sen. Sam Brownback's (R-KS) opposition "probably the most interesting surge-related development." More: "So what is Brownback up to? On one level it's pretty obvious. John McCain and, to varying degrees, the rest of the GOP field have cast their lot with Bush and the surge. There's nothing for a longshot like Brownback to gain by falling in line behind them, and plenty to gain by distinguishing himself on the issue. That's particularly true given the exceedingly likely possibility that the surge will fail, at which point Brownback will look somewhere between sober and prophetic."

MCCAIN: Pat Toomey At 15 Minutes Yet?

Ryan Sager said "some early results" from a survey of Club For Growth members reveal a lack of support for Sen. John McCain (R-AZ). When members were asked "whom they would not like to see" as the GOP presidential nominee, McCain ranked "at the top." CfG Pres. Pat Toomey "offered a rather bleak assessment of McCain's chances at wooing fiscal conservatives" in the '08 GOP primary. Sager: "The vehemence of the opposition to the purported GOP frontrunner by the leadership and membership of the Club For Growth is pretty striking this early in the game."

OBAMA: Anon. Attacks Come From The Blogosphere

Sandwalk Path sums up an e-mail circulating about Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) as "false." The e-mail allegedly suggests Obama was educated as a Muslim at a Muslim school in Indonesia, explaining he was raised "in the Muslim tradition," by his Muslim step-father. Yet "the truth is that Obama's mother was an atheist and so was his biological father" and that his step-father was "a non-practicing Muslim."

Although the e-mail noted Obama "joined the United Church of Christ," it also called him "still an ideological Muslim." If "this is the sort of thing that's going to come out during the presidential campaign," reactions to the e-mail are "worth reading."

ROMNEY: Play Of The Day

Betsy's Page picks up the "interesting little interplay on the Internet" 1/11 over what Romney said in a '94 debate with Sen. Ted Kennedy (D-MA). At Ankle Biting Pundits, "McCain supporter" Patrick Hynes "happily" posted a link to a YouTube video of the debate featuring Romney trying "to separate himself from Ronald Reagan." Watching the video, you could... see Romney's hopes of winning conservative votes in the primary go down the youtubes."

THOMPSON: Seeking Support From Sam Watterson

Righty Stephen Bainbridge writes: "I keep thinking: the GOP did pretty well the last time it chose an actor to run for President. Why not go back to that well and draft [ex-Sen./actor Fred] Thompson (R-TN)?" His commenters mostly agree with the sentiment. Meanwhile, Thompson commented on Bush's Iraq speech at NRO. Jeffrey Weaver rejoices: "I am now not alone in wanting Fred Tompson to be our next President." The Influence Peddler peddles an open letter to the former "Hunt for Red October" star. Appalachian Scribe is also on board.

DEMOCRATS: Coors On Draught

TPM Cafe's Reed Hunt is very pleased with the DNC's selection of Denver as the host city for the '08 convention: "Our nominee will be celebrated in Mountain Time and we will have a strategy focussed on Ohio, Wisconsin, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, and even (watch out John) Arizona. My land, this will be grand: call us America's party!" Californian in Texas is similarly excited.

By the way, did anyone notice that the Libertarian Party will also hold its convention in Denver? Libertarian Party of Colorado not only posts the release, but had a previous post about it last week that they leaked before the nat'l party announced. Walter in Denver thinks both will be good times.

Chris Bowers, while he's at it, sums up the state of the Dem WH '08 field and thinks the netroots will have a big say in the nomination: "Ever since Feingold declared he wouldn't run, I have assumed that the netroots community would be significantly more divided in 2008 than we were in 2004. During the last primary season, Dean and Clark sucked up most of the oxygen online, but this time around it seemed possible that several candidates were positioned to have strong support online. However, especially if Clark and Gore do not run, they would join Warner and Feingold among the potentially strong netroots candidates who decided against running for President. Barring the strong online emergence of other candidates, that would leave pretty much just Edwards and Obama, not entirely unlike Dean and Clark."

REPUBLICANS: Pataki Pooh-Poohs Poll, Presses Prez Possibility

At Right Wing News, it's straw-poll time, and as of this a.m., ex-NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani was edging out ex-MA Gov. Mitt Romney and ex-Speaker Newt Gingrich with 28% to Romney's 24% and Gingrich's 23%. Gingrich is the most-favored candidate, while ex-NY Gov. George Pataki comes in last, with a net 50% negative rating.

Straight off 1/10's question about whether to support Sen. Norm Coleman (R-MN) in the aftermath of his opposition to the proposed increase in troop strength in Baghdad, Oak Leaf turns his guns on Rep. Ric Keller (R-FL), who also disagrees with the "surge" policy. From the post: "Support him because the GOP needs 218 House seats? Shun him because he is abandoning President Bush?" Commenters are much less willing to attack Keller than they were Coleman.

Finally, Race42008 takes a look at the impact of a possible increase in troop levels in Baghdad on each of the top WH '08 GOPers. Lefty There Is No Blog makes an observation: "Who ... still supports Bush's plan? Who would be that crazy and politically naive? Only ALL THREE REPUBLICAN FRONTRUNNERS FOR THE PRESIDENCY."

NH SEN: We Like Boysenberry

Sen. John Sununu (R-NH), a vulnerable Northeastern GOPer, may be challenged in '08 by Stonyfield Yogurt CEO Gary Hirshberg. Jonathan Singer checks out the state's landscape and runs down other possible candidates: "Trends within both the region, broadly, and the state, specifically, bode well for the Democrats; Republican Congressional candidates performed miserably in New England in 2006, including in New Hampshire, and New Hampshire Dems retook control over both chambers of the state legislature for the first time in 132 years -- and reelected a Democratic Governor with 74 percent of the vote to boot."

TX 14: Will He Vote Against Himself?

Jonathan Singer picks up a Hotline OnCall report, via a Quorum Report flash (under "Daily Buzz"), reporting that Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX) has filed papers to open an exploratory cmte. That means his TX-14 seat may be open, and businessman Mark Henry (R) is already making calls. Singer: "Texas-14, which Paul represents, has a PVI of R+14, meaning that it tends to vote 14 points more Republican than the nation as a whole in presidential elections. For reference, two Democrats in Texas alone -- Chet Edwards and Nick Lampson -- won races in districts with a PVI in excess of R+14." Even if Dems aren't successful, forcing the GOP to defend their seats, says Singer, could lead to a depleted party. He notes that the GOP and Club for Growth spent over $1M to defend ID-01 and $150K on CO-05.

IN THE STATES: Ole Miss? New Miss.

RedState's Adam C notes that, thanks to a party-switcher and a GOP LG, the MS State Sen is now controlled by GOPers.

THOUGHT OF THE DAY: Deadline's Not 'Til August

Noting Sen. Joe Lieberman's (I/D-CT) stated support for a temporary increase in troop strength in Iraq and Sen. Chuck Hagel's (R-NE) opposition to same, lefty Michael J.W. Stickings asks: "I'll take Hagel over Lieberman any day. Do you think they could work out a trade?"

LEST WE FORGET: Friday Funnies

In light of WMATA's recent mishap on the Green and Yellow lines at Mt. Vernon Square, we're reminded that strange things happen togood machines . We still have no idea why these make us laugh so much. Oh, and THAT's what happened to all those Christmas presents we were supposed to get.

Posted by Conn Carroll at January 12, 2007 12:21 PM